Addressing the Completion Challenge in Portuguese Higher Education Jonathan Williams September 2017 M-RCBG Associate Working Paper Series | No. 81 The views expressed in the M-RCBG Associate Working Paper Series are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect those of the Mossavar-Rahmani Center for Business & Government or of Harvard University. The papers in this series have not undergone formal review and approval; they are presented to elicit feedback and to encourage debate on important public policy challenges. Copyright belongs to the author(s). Papers may be downloaded for personal use only. Mossavar-Rahmani Center for Business & Government Weil Hall | Harvard Kennedy School | www.hks.harvard.edu/mrcbg ADDRESSING THE COMPLETION CHALLENGE IN PORTUGUESE HIGHER EDUCATION Technical Report June 22, 2017 Prepared for: The Ministry for Science, Technology and Higher Education of Portugal and the OECD Directorate for Education and Skills This Policy Analysis Exercise reflects the views of the author and should not be viewed as representing the views of the PAE's external clients listed above, nor those of Harvard University or any of its faculty Jonathan Williams, Harvard Kennedy School of Government [email protected] Acknowledgements I owe many thanks for the support I received on this project. Firstly, thank you to Pedro Barrias and the MCTES, and Thomas Weko and the Policy Analysis and Implementation team at the OECD Directorate for Education and Skills, for taking me on for this work and provide advice and assistance throughout the length of the project. Special thanks to Anna Pons and Cláudia Sarrico for your thoughtful feedback on document drafts. Secondly, muito obrigado to my interviewees in Portugal and at the OECD for your patience and thoughtfulness. I was sincerely impressed by the passion and commitment that each of you displayed towards addressing the challenges facing students in Portugal. Additional thanks to those who sent follow up information. Thirdly, thank you to my supervisor, Professor Josh Goodman, and Seminar Leaders Professors John Haigh and Julie Boatright Wilson. Sorry the report is so long. I am also thankful for financial support for the study visit from Degree Programs and Student Affairs and from the Malcolm Weiner Center for Social Policy at the Harvard John F. Kennedy School of Government. Fourthly, thanks to my colleagues at the Kennedy School for listening to my thoughts and sharing your own. And finally, thanks as always to my parents and Dima, for putting up with me and giving me solid advice throughout this project. June 2017 Addressing the Completion Challenge in Portuguese Higher Education Notes Table of Contents Abbreviations Guide .............................................................................................................. ii Executive Summary ............................................................................................................... 1 Chapter 1: Introduction ......................................................................................................... 5 Chapter 2: Measuring and Conceptualizing Study Success..................................................... 19 Chapter 3: Admissions ......................................................................................................... 53 Chapter 4: Quality of Education Delivery .............................................................................. 77 Chapter 5: Financing .......................................................................................................... 123 Chapter 6: Options and Recommendations ........................................................................ 151 Appendix I: List of Interviewees ......................................................................................... 179 Appendix II: Summary of Analysis of Policy Options ........................................................... 181 i June 2017 Addressing the Completion Challenge in Portuguese Higher Education Notes Abbreviations Guide Abbreviation English Original Portuguese A3ES Higher Education Evaluation and Agência de Avaliação e Acreditação Accreditation Agency do Ensino Superior AV Visual Arts Artes Visuais BE Study Bursary Bolsa de Estudo CCSSE Community College Survey of Student Engagement CEF Education and Training Programmes Cursos de Educação e Formação CET Technological Specialisation Cursos de Especialização Tecnológica Programmes CH Scientific-Humanistic Científico-Humanístico CHEPS Centre for Higher Education Policy Studies CNA National Access Competition Concurso Nacional de Acesso CNAES National Commission for Access to Comissão Nacional de Acesso ao Higher Education Ensino Superior CNAPPES National Congress on Pedagogical Congresso Nacional de Práticas Practices in Higher Education Pedagógicas no Ensino Superior CS Social and Economic Sciences Ciências Socioeconómicas CT Science and Technology Ciências e Tecnologias DGEEC Directorate-General for Education Direção-Geral de Estatísticas da and Science Statistics Educação e Ciência DGES Directorate-General for Higher Direção-Geral do Ensino Superior Education ECB European Central Bank ECTS European Credit Transfer and Articulation System EFA Adult Education and Training Cursos de Educação e Formação de Programmes Adultos ES Non-integrated higher education Escolas Superiores Não Integradas schools ESCS PISA index of economic, social and cultural status EU European Union GDP Gross Domestic Product IEFP Employment and Vocational Training Instituto do Emprego e Formação Institute Profissional IP Polytechnic Institute Instituto Politécnico ii June 2017 Addressing the Completion Challenge in Portuguese Higher Education Notes Abbreviation English Original Portuguese ISCED International Standard Classification of Education ISEG Lisbon School of Economics and Instituto Superior de Economia e Management Gestão, Universidade de Lisboa LH Languages and Humanities Línguas e Humanidades M23 Special admissions competition for Mais de 23 applicants over 23 years of age MCTES Ministry of Science, Technology and Ministerio de Ciência, Tecnologia e Higher Education Ensino Superior NC Numerus Clausus Numerus Clausus NSS National Student Survey NSSE National Survey of Student Engagement OECD Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development PISA Programme for International Student Assessment R&D Research and development RGA General Access Stream Regime Geral de Acesso SES Socioeconomic status TESP Higher Technical Professional Cursos Técnicos Superiores Programmes Profissionais UK United Kingdom UKES UK Engagement Survey UNIVA Career Centres Unidades de Inserção na Vida Ativa i June 2017 Addressing the Completion Challenge in Portuguese Higher Education Executive Summary Executive Summary Portugal has faced a significant economic crisis in recent years that is deeply rooted in aging demographics and low productivity. It is evident that strengthening the population’s skills is essential to improve competitiveness. Given this, the Government of Portugal has set an ambitious target for higher education attainment, which can only be achieved through both expanded access and higher completion. This study is seeking to answer the following research question: What steps can the Portuguese government take during its current mandate (2017 to 2020) to initiate a systematic increase in the higher education completion? At many points, we use the somewhat broader term of study success, but completion remains our emphasis. Understanding Completion and Study Success OECD data on completion rates places Portugal somewhat below the average of other member countries, notwithstanding challenges in comparing data collected using different methodologies. At the national level, data on dropout after first year indicates significant differences between institution types, institutions and study programmes. Public institutions, universities, more competitive programmes, and Licenciado degrees tend to have lower dropout rates than private institutions, polytechnic institutes, less competitive programmes and Master’s degrees. Students typically drop out in first year. International evidence indicates that while study success matters for individuals, families, institutions and society, the challenge is not merely to maximise the completion rate, or minimise dropout and time-to-completion. Some very high quality higher education systems have low completion rates by OECD standards, based on the roles they play within their specific societies. Efforts to raise completion must take into account trade-offs with access, student learning, and time-to-completion. Ultimately, Portugal should establish a target for completion rates that corresponds with its own economic and social circumstances and objectives. The international literature identifies intervening factors that influence study success, i.e. based on societal trends that are independent from higher education system policies but interact with these. These factors are (1) non-modifiable student characteristics (socioeconomic status, 1 June 2017 Addressing the Completion Challenge in Portuguese Higher Education Executive Summary gender, and ethnic origin), (2) student academic skills (based on their prior educational experiences), and (3) student motivations (relating to expectations, sense of belonging and labour market goals). We consider three main areas where higher education policies have an impact on completion: admissions, quality of education delivery, and financing.