Assessment of Drought Risk Perception in Southeast Spain (Guadalentin River Basin) Abstract: Resumo
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Assessment of drought risk perception in southeast Spain (Guadalentin river basin) José María Serrano Martínez Department of Geography, University of Murcia (Spain) [email protected] Ramón García Marín Department of Geography, University of Murcia (Spain) [email protected] Abstract: The human perception of physical phenomena such as drought, very common in Medi- terranean areas, is not the same in all the regions in Spain. Land planning and water manage- ment are decisive factors that can change the people perception about dry periods. The limit for considering whether a region suffering drought or not depends on the values of accumula- ted rainfall, but also on the water availability (surface and groundwater), and on the existing demand for different land uses. In order to better understand the drought perception, people from places frequently affected by drought were interviewed. The drought perception has changed along with the economic transformation and the modification of lifestyle and con- sumption habits since 1950 to now in the affected society. Possibly, the dry period suffered during the years 1966 and 1967, with tragic economic consequences for the region of Southe- ast Spain, determined changes in the traditional perception of this natural phenomenon. This perception remained during the later episodes of drought (1978-84, 1992-96 and 2005-07). The excessive growth in the demand and the mismanagement of water in this territory, due to an inefficient land planning, are the main causes of the risk perception. Keywords: Drought. Risk. Perception. Water management. SE Spain. Resumo: Avaliação da perceção do risco de secas no sudeste de Espanha (bacia do rio Guadalentin) A perceção humana do fenómeno pluviométrico da seca, muito habitual nas zonas me- diterrânicas, não quer dizer uma diminuição de chuvas em todas as regiões de Espanha. A orga- nização do território e a gestão dos recursos hídricos realizada pela sociedade é um factor decisivo que modifica a perceção de bem-estar em um período de seca. O limite real da seca numa região ou território deve ser estabelecido de acordo com valores de precipitação acumu- lada mas, também, de acordo com os recursos hídricos disponíveis, sejam superficiais e/ou subterrâneos, e com as demandas existentes para diferentes usos desse recurso hídrico. Para aprofundar na perceção da população espanhola em relação ao fenómeno climático da seca, realizaram-se entrevistas à população rural na região sudeste de Espanha (Múrcia). A perceção do fenómeno climático da seca mudou a partir de transformações económicas, responsáveis da alteração de hábitos de vida e formas de consumo, sobretudo depois dos anos cinquenta (sécu- 103 José María Serrano Martínez e Ramón García Marín lo XX). Possivelmente, a ocorrência da seca de 1966-67, de trágicas consequências económicas para a região do sudeste espanhol, determinou alterações na perceção tradicional quanto à diminuição de chuvas como fenómeno calamitoso, consolidando essa perceção durante os epi- sódios posteriores da seca (1978-84, 1992-96 e 2005-07). A baixa quantidade de chuvas e a fragilidade no planejamento e gestão dos recursos hídricos na região estudada, estão na origem da compreensão desse fenómeno embora seja um fenómeno natural. Palavras-chave: Risco de seca. Perceção. Ordenamento do Território. SE Espanha. 1. Introduction: assessment of the perception regarding the drought phenomenon The high frequency and duration of dry periods in Guadalentín basin (South-east of Spain) (Figure 1) make furthermore scanty the water available resources in this zone and it unleashes socioeconomic crises of undoubted media repercussion. The drought phenomenon is not recent in this territory, but it has appeared with different periodicity, duration and intensity in different historical periods. Nowadays, and in spite of the scientific advances, better knowledge of the territory, major capacity of social organization and economic power, the problems and difficulties caused by the droughts continue unresolved, turning into one of the principal political weapon (GARCÍA -MARÍN , 2008). 1º 45’ W N 37º 45’ N 37º 45’ N 0 km 8 16 24 1º 45’ W FigureFigure 11. Location of the hydrographic basin of the river Guadalentin (South-east of Spain). Rivers, ephemeral channels Location of the hydrographic basin of the river Guadalentin (South-east of Spain). Rivers, ephemeral channels (ramblas) and (ramblas) and centers of population. urban areas. The last period of droughts (2005-2007) (Figure 2) shows again that the water offer is The last dry period (2005-2007) (Figure 2) shows again that the water offer is scarce in scarce in relation to demands. This time the climatic event did not come accompanied by relation to demands. This time the climatic event did not come accompanied by important importantwater restrictions, water restrictions,probably because probably of the improvementbecause of ofthe the improvement resource management of the (GresourceARCÍA - managementMARÍN , 2009). (GNevertheless,ARCÍA-MARÍN a great, 2009). part Nevertheless, of the Spanish a populationgreat part ofstill the has Spanish in mind population the chaotic still situations that took place during the 1990s’ drought (LL A M AS , 1997), due to the lack of an has in mind the chaotic situations that took place during the 1990s’ drought (Llamas, 1997), due to the lack of an adequate forecast on the part of the administration, which often forgets 104 that droughts never miss their appointments (LÓPEZ, 2006). 3 Assessment of drought risk perception in southeast Spain (Guadalentin river basin) adequate forecast on the part of the administration, which often forgets that droughts never miss their appointments (LÓPEZ , 2006). 500 m 900 m A 900 m MURCIA / ALCANTARILLA ZARZADILLA DOÑA INÉS DE TOTANA LIBRILLA 900 m TOPARES ALHAMA HUERTA ESPUÑA EMBALSE DE PUENTES TOTANA PRESA DEL PARETÓN VÉLEZ 16 X BLANCO PUERTO LORCA MARÍA LUMBRERAS 900 m 500 m B Figure 2 Figure 2. A) Average annual rainfall (1950-2007), meteorological observatories and principal curves of level (altimetry); B) Average A) Average annualrainfall during rainfall the period (1950 of drought-2007), 2005-07. meteorological observatories and principal curves of level (altimetry); B) Average rainfall during the period of drought 2005-07. 105 The Spanish population is made aware of the existing problem of water availability, and a wide consensus exists on the idea of water shortages (82 %) (FBBVA, 2007). Facing the absence of changes in the habits of consumption, the people interviewed for this piece of research ones prefer technological solutions to increase the water offer in Spain, to constructing more dams and reservoirs (76 %), desalinating sea water (74 %) and moving 4 José María Serrano Martínez e Ramón García Marín The Spanish population is made aware of the existing problem of water availability, and a wide consensus exists on the idea of water shortages (82 %) (FBBVA, 2007). Facing the absence of changes in the habits of consumption, the people interviewed for this piece of research ones prefer technological solutions to increase the water offer in Spain, to constructing more dams and reservoirs (76 %), desalinating sea water (74 %) and moving water from one river to another (71 %). The Spanish population does not want an increase in the price of water, but they are delighted with the new infrastructures. In the opinion of MACEIRA (2007), “probably we do not realize that the cost of infrastructures (and even more nowadays that the European funds are disappearing) also come go out of our wallets. Although, as we only pay once a year, it seems that it grieves less than the monthly receipts”. The social attitudes to the problem of water develop, in the last instance, as a result of the occurrence of episodes of rain shortage, that is, meteorological droughts that end in hydrological droughts and provoke an imbalance between demand and offer of water resources. The drought phenomenon generates very diverse and different appraisals, being able to generate conflicts between the affected neighbours. For example, the owner of an irrigation farm with a modernized exploitation does not need rain water, which can harm his production, and he prefers that water comes from other places across conductions or channels; on the contrary, his neighbour, the owner of a dry farm, needs rain water to survive and get ahead to raise his crop. Nevertheless, a common reflection is shared by both farmers: that the water resources are not scarce, in spite of the fact that their thoughts differ with respect to the supply form. The perception of the drought phenomenon has changed in relation with the economic and social transformations of the last fifty years. According toM ORA L ES et al. (1999), the drought suffered during the years 1966 and 1967, which had serious economic consequences in the Spanish south-east, marked the change of the traditional adjustment to these episodes of rain shortages considered as catastrophic events. This new perception has been consolidated during the most recent drought periods. The new way of understanding a fact with a natural origin resides in the excessive increase of the demands of water resources and in the minimal hydrological planning. After the period of droughts suffered during the first half of the 1990s, research on the analysis of vulnerability regarding episodes of rain shortage has made progress. Nevertheless, the approximations to the different ways of living through these droughts, in relation with customs, habits, etc., have been less abundant, and this study intends to show the real experience behind these situations of water deficit in a certain territory. 1.1. Traditional perception of the droughts: adjustment to the water deficit The feeling of drought does not derive from a decrease of rainfalls in all the Spanish regions. The organization of the territory and the management of the water resources made by a society are also decisive factors that can modify the sensation of being or not in a period of droughts (HEAT H COTE , 1999).