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Minneapolis – St. Paul Office Market

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Minneapolis – St. Paul Office Market RESEARCH 1Q 2020 MINNEAPOLIS – ST. PAUL OFFICE MARKET MARKET TRENDS CURRENT CONDITIONS The vacancy rate in the Minneapolis-St. Paul office market was 11.2% during the first quarter of 2020, a continuation of the same vacancy rate Quarterly net absorption of 49,332 square feet from the fourth quarter of 2019. Absorption was positive for the twelfth consecutive quarter at 49,332 square feet. The majority of positive Overall vacancy rate of 11.2% absorption occurred in the West submarket with 69,017 square feet and the Southwest submarket with 67,649 square feet. Regis’s move to their new 1,933,385 square feet under construction headquarters in the West was the largest move of 65,000 square feet. Geronimo Energy occupied 25,000 square feet in the Southwest at the 8400 MARKET ANALYSIS Tower of Normandale Lakes. Gross Asking Rent and Vacancy Absorption and vacancy will be impacted by leases that are projected to commence in the second and third quarters. Notable first quarter tenant $35 14% movement in the Minneapolis CBD include Nilan Johnson relocating to The $30 12% Marq for 37,000 square feet, while giving back 76,000 square feet at $25 10% Canadian Pacific Plaza. Incom begins their lease at 100 Fifth Street Tower $20 8% for 19,000 square feet. The Minneapolis CBD garners a significant amount $15 of vacant space next quarter when renovations at both The Dayton’s $10 6% Project and Thirty become available. $5 4% 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 Lease costs continued to escalate due to increased sale prices resulting in Average Gross Asking Rent (Price/SF) Vacancy (%) rising assessed values and taxes. Operating costs are also growing as amenity upgrades are passed on to the building’s expenses. Even with higher rental rates, speculative-suites still lease the fastest as move-in Net Absorption (SF) ready options are highly desirable. In spite of increased costs to both spec- suites and traditional vacant, flexible lease terms are used as a way to 500,000 attract tenants. 400,000 300,000 In recent years, the office market has been transformed by the constant challenge that employers face in recruiting and retaining top talent. The 200,000 result has been a focus on the design of workplace environments that 100,000 provide the best experience for employees. However, much of these 0 standards will now change with the Covid-19 pandemic outbreak that has 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 halted businesses and the economy at the end of the first quarter. The Twin Cities future outlook is now uncertain. Before the virus, absorption was MARKET SUMMARY expected to remain steady and asking rental rates were plateauing across a Current Prior 12 Month broad subset of office classes and submarkets. Quarter Quarter Forecast Total Inventory 118.9M 118.9.M Remote work was a trend gaining some steam before the pandemic but Vacancy Rate 11.2% 11.2% social distancing guidelines have forced companies to refine work from Quarterly Net Absorption 49,332 52,268 home measures. Landlords will need to put health and sanitation codes as a top propriety as buildings reopen. Once desired property amenities such Average Gross Asking Rent $29.06 $28.21 as shared seated common rooms and fitness centers could be secondary Under Construction 1,933,385 1,933,385 as tenants may turn a preference to properties with top air quality Deliveries 0 438,436 standards and touch free technology to limit touching doors and elevators. © NEWMARK KNIGHT FRANK | 2020 RESEARCH | 1 1Q 2020 MINNEAPOLIS-ST. PAUL OFFICE MARKET CONSTRUCTION Class A Average Gross Asking Rate Ryan Companies and the Excelsior Group broke ground in the West submarket in the third quarter of 2019 on a 100% speculative office $36 $34.34 building, 10 West End in St. Louis Park. CarVal Investors was the first $33 tenant to sign a lease in 10 West End, a full floor for 34,600-square-feet. $30 $26.45 The 11-story, 343,000 square foot building with a parking structure for $27 1,214 cars is expected to be completed early in 2021. $24 $21 Twin Cities corporate campus development has been prevalent in $18 recent years including UnitedHealth Group in Eden Prairie; the Vikings Mpls CBD, West, SW All other submarkets and Prime Therapeutics in Eagan; and Wells Fargo, Be the Match and Behind the scenes of these rising rental rates are transactions with significant tenant incentives as owners compete for tenants. Xcel Energy in the Minneapolis CBD. Currently under construction is Thrivent’s 350,000-square-foot headquarters building in the CBD, and SALES United Properties began construction in the second quarter on RBC Sales volume has remained robust in 2019, and pricing has continued to Gateway, United Properties’ mixed-use tower on the north end of the rise. Minneapolis benefits from strong demand from investors priced out Minneapolis CBD. RBC Wealth Management will occupy 370,000 square of gateway markets. It is common for investors to turn to secondary feet in the building, and United Properties, along with other Pohlad- markets during the latter stage of an economic expansion; they are owned companies, will occupy 96,000 square feet. seeking yields unavailable in first-tier cities, where cap rates are compressed. Other development is coming in the form of renovations of existing facilities. Opus renovated Target West, Target’s 307,000-square-foot Office Sales Volume former corporate campus along Interstate 394, just outside of the Minneapolis CBD. Tactile Medical was the first tenant to lease space 3,600 and moved into 152,000 square feet in 2019. In the first quarter of 3,000 2020, Regis moved into their new 65,000 square foot headquarters at Millions 2,400 Target West from 7201 Metro Blvd, Edina. Swervo is redeveloping the 1,800 1,200 former YMCA in the Minneapolis CBD; the project is called Thirty and 600 totals 140,000 square feet. Life Time Work announced a deal to move 0 into Thirty for 53,000-square-feet. In a future quarter, the 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 redevelopment of the former Macy’s retail space, called The Dayton’s YTD Project, will add 850,000 square feet of office space to the CBD-Core. Source: Real Capital Analytics RENTAL RATES The largest transaction of the quarter was the West End Office Park In both suburban and urban locations, Class A and Class B properties portfolio sale of $130.1 million. Utah-based Bridge Investment Group with strong amenity packages and renovated spaces are enjoying bought the park, comprised of six properties totaling 557,000 square feet, leasing success. Rental rates at these properties are garnering the from The Excelsior Group. Bridge Investment Group announced they most positive gains. Landlord competition to secure tenants is focused would make additional capital improvements to the park, which was 84% on providing concessions in the form of free rent and tenant occupied at the time of the transaction. A pair of buildings in the improvement allowances. This also provides landlords with an Southwest submarket was the second highest portfolio sold in the attractive rent roll, making it appealing to prospective buyers in case an quarter for $39.8 million. Baker Road Corporate Center and the 4400 owner is considering selling. Extra upgrades and amenities help tip the Baker Building was purchased by the private Chicago firm, Syndicated decision-making process in a building’s favor among businesses Equities from the long term owner WPT Industrial REIT. seeking to attract and retain talent. FUTURE TRENDS Class A projects at in-demand submarkets of the Minneapolis CBD- The impact of the COVID-19 virus will greatly influence the commercial Core, Southwest and West have average quoted rates that are 30.0% real estate market in future quarters as a stay-at-home quarantine order higher than the other submarkets combined. The overall weighted was issued by the Minnesota governor in the final days of quarter one. average rent (FSG) in the Minneapolis CBD-Core for quarter one ended Major sectors of the economy have been temporarily closed to mitigate at $34.06, a full dollar per square foot higher than the previous quarter. the viruses spread. Unemployment fillings rose sharply at the end of Rent growth on the 394 corridor also rose by roughly a dollar per square March and will continue to rise as the economy responds to the crisis. foot, while the 494 corridor office market stabilized at $28.72. Across the Twin Cities market rents peaked at a recorded high of $29.06. © NEWMARK KNIGHT FRANK | 2020 1Q 2020 MINNEAPOLIS-ST. PAUL OFFICE MARKET SELECT LEASE TRANSACTIONS Tenant Property Address City Submarket Type Size (SF) The Nerdery 7700 France Ave S 7700 France Ave Edina Southwest New 63,791 Toppan Merrill Energy Park Business Center West 1465-1501 Energy Park Dr W St. Paul Northeast New 48,556 West Monroe The Nordic 729 Washington Ave N Minneapolis Mpls-CBD New 42,000 Progressive Insurance Shoreview Corporate Center 4100 Lexington Ave N Shoreview Northeast New 37,731 Benedictine Health Systems 6499 Corporate Cernter 6499 University Ave NE Fridley Northeast New 37,490 One10 Marketing 705 Baker Center 705 Marquette Ave Minneapolis Mpls-CBD New 32,202 Pinstripes 233 Park Ave 233 Park Ave Minneapolis Mpls-CBD New 31,000 NorthRock Partners Capella Tower 225 S 6th St Minneapolis Mpls-CBD New 30,194 PTC Shoreview Corporate Center 4100 Lexington Ave N Shoreview Northeast New 28,380 Flagstone Foods T3 323 Washington Ave N Minneapolis Mpls-CBD New 26,353 Avtex Northland Center I 3500 American Blvd W Bloomington Southwest Renew 23,640
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