A Financial Markets Renaissance

IBM Business Consulting Services

IBM Institute for Business Value

Financial Markets The trader is dead, long live the trader!

A financial markets renaissance IBM Institute for Business Value IBM Business Consulting Services, through the IBM Institute for Business Value, develops fact-based strategic insights for senior business executives around critical industry-specific and cross-industry issues. This executive brief is based on an in-depth study by the Institute’s research team. It is part of an ongoing commitment by IBM Business Consulting Services to provide analysis and viewpoints that help companies realize business value. You may contact the authors or send an e-mail to iibv@us.ibm.com for more information. The trader is dead, long live the trader! A financial markets renaissance

Executive summary To gain a clearer understanding of the future of Financial markets firms have consistently earned more the industry, the IBM Institute for Business Value, in than the average company over the last decade. As cooperation with the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), one CEO told us, “I was lamenting to my board that my conducted a global survey of more than 400 financial margins had decreased from 36 percent to 33 percent; markets executives representing the buy side, the one of my board members, the head of a grocery chain, sell side and processors, as well as academics, plan stage whispered to his neighbor, ‘Yeah, times are tough sponsors, industry associations and regulatory bodies. for me, too: mine went from two percent to a point and a The interviews and survey spanned 61 countries in half!’”1 While sympathy from other industries may be hard the Americas, Asia and Europe. Nearly three-quarters to come by, financial markets leaders must nevertheless of those surveyed believe that the industry will be act to prepare themselves for the momentous changes significantly different in 2015, yet 46 percent rate they will face over the next decade. themselves as only moderately able to respond to change.3 This executive brief analyzes and synthesizes In the face of commoditization and fierce competition, the study findings into a view of the evolving industry financial markets firms have continued to thrive by and a guide to what executives can do today to position innovating and hustling, leading to an overall 15 percent their firms for tomorrow. return on equity (ROE) over the last decade, compared to 8.7 percent ROE for the average company.2 Firms The fundamental task for firms will be to develop a clear have long benefited from the edge provided by perspective on risk. Value will be created in two ways: by proprietary information access and market insight, effectively assuming and managing risk, or by mitigating but these advantages will come under significant risk, either by taking it out of the overall system, or pressure over the next decade as two inexorable trends by reducing it for their clients. Today, we characterize accelerate: transparency and speed. industry segments in terms of buy side, sell side and processors out of convenience. However, as value As these two forces approach their limits – trans- bifurcates on the risk dimension, this terminology may parency can’t exceed the point at which everyone eventually become irrelevant. knows everything, and speed can’t move beyond the instantaneous – many of today’s profit engines will stall, “Everything is sweetened by risk.” while new value engines will begin firing on all cylinders. – Alexander Smith4 Firms must be able to succeed in an environment where analysis, not knowledge, is the value creator, Driven by transparency and speed, the industry will and where it’s not seconds that count, but milliseconds. change substantially in the coming years. Excess agency Power will shift from the traders who have benefited profits will evaporate, the separation of Alpha and Beta from merely facilitating transactions to the buyers and will become complete, and the creation of alliances will sellers that take positions on either end of the trade, and be critical. In addition, demanding institutional and retail the way that firms create value will likely experience a clients will drive a shift from a transaction perspective renaissance as transformational as anything the industry to one that is truly centered on the client. As a result, it has ever witnessed. will be vital for each firm to transform its business model

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and optimize returns for the level of risk that it chooses • Partner selectively to fully exploit your strategic, differen- to assume. To accomplish this most effectively, financial tiating capabilities markets firms will be forced to change their supporting • Optimize the profitability of each client operating models in ways that make the changes of the last generation pale in comparison. • Develop a purposeful, systematic culture of innovation.

We recommend four basic steps to begin preparing for And, once you’ve decided on the strategic direction the future: for each of these four steps, then, of course, you must execute. • Determine your optimal long-term relationship with risk

Study methodology The IBM Institute for Business Value and the EIU obtained input from financial markets players in three geographies. Key questions underpinning the study include: How will value be created in the future? Which firms are positioned to succeed? What capabilities will be required? And, what steps must executives take now to prepare for the future? We surveyed 402 business leaders from 296 financial markets firms in 61 countries (37 percent from the Americas, 32 percent from Europe and 31 percent from Asia):5 • Buy side: Institutional and retail asset management • Sell side: Institutional sales and trading • Processors: Asset servicing/custody, exchanges, alternative trading systems and clearing • Academics, plan sponsors, industry associations, key regulatory bodies across Americas, Europe and Asia. We conducted qualitative interviews with 130 executives and surveyed 272 executives in cooperation with the EIU. As part of the analysis, we developed quantitative models that combined historical perspectives with potentially disruptive forces. We categorized selected financial markets industry participants as shown below.

Buy side Sell side Processors

1% Discount broker 9% Regional 12% Exchanges broker/dealer 14% Alternative boutique 13% Clearing 22% Boutique 25% Institutional 75% Custodian investment bank 60% Retail 69% Tier 1 broker/dealer

Geography Executive level Firm size*

31% Asia 66% C-Level, EVP, 15% Mid 37% Americas Division Head 50% Large 32% Europe/ 34% Director, 35% Small Middle East/Africa SVP, VP

Note: *Size is deﬁ ned as size of revenues: small is < US$500 million; mid is US$500 million to US$5 billion; large is >US$5 billion. Source: IBM Institute for Business Value/Economist Intelligence Unit Survey.

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Transparency and speed: Driving a surge of When we asked each respondent to identify drivers of industry change change in the next ten years, their answers confirmed Financial Services is by far the dominant sector in terms the growing impact of transparency and speed on the of market capitalization. As of August 2005, financial industry (see the left side of Figure 2). The right side of the services comprised 29 percent of total market capital- figure shows their most pressing current concerns, a list ization in the U.S. and U.K.; the next largest sector, that closely parallels the many drivers of industry change. Information Technology, trailed with 12 percent.6 But the Greater transparency is rapidly expanding access to rapid growth and outsized returns that have characterized markets (through electronification and exposure of the history of the sector are showing signs of strain: in the Alpha and Beta) and data required for decision making past decade, the global ROE for many industries within (including knowledge about pricing and client profits, and the financial services sector has declined (see Figure 1). the exposure of conflicts of interest). Increasing speed will The cumulative effects of transparency and speed will drive changes on three scales: quarterly to yearly organi- be far-reaching. As the industry continues to mature and zational and business model shifts; weekly to monthly returns normalize, firms will need to find new ways to product commoditization; and intraday and sub-second create value, including optimizing risk and return efficiency. trading and downstream processing requirements. All respondent groups agreed that the global structure Transparency and speed are causing the evaporation of of the industry will continue to consolidate moderately, as agency profits, accelerating the separation of Alpha and opposed to fragmenting further or remaining the same. Beta, increasing the importance of alliances and forcing Operating models will shift substantially as financial the restructuring of business and operating models markets winners evaluate and enhance their relationships around clients. As a result, the financial markets industry with risk.

Figure 1. Global return on equity trendline for selected industries, 1994-2015.A

30 U.S. asset management specialistsB 25

C 20 Integrated custodian/asset managers

15 U.S. bulge bracket firmsD Percent All industries 10

5 Global asset managementE 0 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2010E 2015EF

Source: Note: AProjections are linear; BIncludes Affiliated Managers Group, Alliance Capital, Blackrock, Eaton Vance, Federated Investors, Franklin Resources, Janus Capital, Legg Mason, Marsh & McLennan, T. Rowe Price, Waddell & Reed; CIncludes BoNY, State Street, IBT, Northern Trust and Julius Baer; DIncludes Merrill Lynch, Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley; EIncludes all publicly listed asset managers, figures do not include universal banks or sell side asset management divisions; FShaded area: 2004 through 2015 are collapsed into two periods for prior period ROE viewing purposes. Source: Thomson ONE Banker; IBM Institute for Business Value analysis.

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Figure 2. Drivers of change and current concerns.

Drivers of change over the next ten yearsA Current concernsB (Percentage of survey respondents by segment)C (Percentage of survey respondents by segment)C

Expanded electronification of instruments Regulatory burden

Exposure of Alpha and Beta Organizational structure impedes ability to grow

Information availability Speed of commoditization empowers clients Realtime pressures require straight-through processing, Speed of skill migration centralization and sourcing

Speed of market structure/ Speed of competition taking share liquidity changes n = 271 n = 271

0 20 40 60 80 100 Buy side 0 20 40 60 80 100 Percent Sell side Percent Processors

Note: AExecutives were asked: “By how much will the industry change over the next 10 years and what top reasons come to mind?;” BExecutives were asked: “What keeps you up at night?; CPercentage may be greater than 100 due to multiple responses; Buy side includes institutional and retail asset managers and plan sponsors; sell side includes institutional broker dealers; processors includes custodians, clearing firms and exchanges. Source: IBM Institute for Business Value primary client interviews; IBM Institute for Business Value analysis.

will experience a bifurcation of value into risk assumption With almost limitless electronic access to market and risk mitigation – leaving firms to reassess the role risk information, clients will seek to lower costs by trading will play in their long-term strategies. and performing investment research themselves. While The evaporation of agency profits the majority of surveyed firms acknowledge that agency profits are dwindling, it is striking that most respondents As market electronification extends to fixed income associate the threat only with equity products – in fact, and derivatives, clients will increasingly refuse to accept electronification will have a similar impact across the paying premium commissions on simple transactions. The entire spectrum of instruments. essentially risk-free intermediary will not provide the value that it once did. Accordingly, survey respondents, on average, plan to shrink their number of traders from forty “Unbundling and electronification will to four across most product groups, and they expect to make or break firms within three to organize around industries versus product silos.7 Agency five years…We’re working on a global trading will still play a role, but will likely earn no more than a slim economic profit, and in some cases serve as a loss strategy for this: transparency is key, leader for other, more profitable areas of business. clients will know everything. Even prime brokerage will be unbundled.” – Division Head, investment bank, Hong Kong8

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With the diminishing value of agency, some financial On the other hand, those companies with defined benefit markets players will have to uncover new sources of pension plans will separate Alpha from Beta to better profit. At the end of 2004, there was a fifty-fifty split match assets to liabilities. As such, these institutional between the revenue contribution of agency trading (risk- investors are expected to increase their allocation to more free) and principal trading (risk-incurring activities that volatile funds (such as certain types of hedge funds and include proprietary trading) for sell side firms.9 By 2015, private equity) in the hopes of achieving Alpha. These the split will likely be 70 percent for principal activities firms are expected to obtain market exposure (Beta) by versus a slim 30 percent for agency.10 Another example either holding index funds or shifting a percentage to of the move toward greater risk assumption is the rise derivatives. of structured products (such as derivatives), which are capital intensive and also considered higher risk; we “The quest for Alpha will become very project average growth of 12 percent over the next ten difficult. This is why we outsource years.11 Entering less developed markets (such as Eastern Europe and China) is another type of growth opportunity active management.” that combines greater risk with potentially greater – Portfolio Manager, large U.S. public plan13 rewards. To profit in this environment, firms will need to excel at executing riskier activities that require more firm investment and more control. Second, a trend of weak performance by active asset managers has called into question their ability to add The separation of Alpha and Beta value for clients. Between 1993 and 2004, only 29 percent Today, roughly 70 percent of worldwide assets are in of U.S. traditional active fund managers outperformed the the form of traditional long only active management Morgan Stanley Capital International U.S. Broad Market 12 investments (most commonly, mutual funds). These 2500 Index.14 Such results are increasingly leading clients products currently bundle Alpha (the value the portfolio to turn away from active funds. manager seeks to add in the form of excess returns) with Beta (exposure to the market benchmark). In the future, The separation of Alpha from Beta is expected to shift investors (both retail and institutional) will be less willing profit away from traditional long only active funds toward to pay Alpha fees for Beta returns, and the way that funds the extremes of unconstrained Alpha-generating investing are priced and managed will have to change. (more volatile pools, such as certain types of hedge funds and private equity) and passive investing (index funds, Two ongoing developments will accelerate the split of exchange-traded funds and certain types of derivatives). Alpha from Beta: global pension plan under funding and Firms that understand how to best match assets to weak active asset manager performance. First, as record liabilities – and, over time, can execute on that under- numbers of people retire worldwide in the next decade, standing – will attract and retain the most assets, from rising costs will make current government and private both institutional and retail investors. retirement plans unsustainable. On one hand, the growing number of companies shifting from defined benefit to defined contribution pension plans are separating Alpha from Beta by shifting from actively managed mutual funds to indexing (aiming to match the return of major market indices, such as the S&P 500).

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The battle for Alpha “How can I keep providing these Alpha returns will become more difficult to obtain in the future. Many end investors who have been investing in traditional, services within this context of rapid constrained asset management (“dumb money”), for example, growth? We need to fundamentally will change their investment philosophy: these “Alpha donors” rethink our operational model and skill will depart for indexation or in search of Alpha. But the battle for Alpha is ultimately a zero-sum game, so these new investors set to support growth.” will find themselves battling for Alpha against those incumbents – Divisional Head, universal bank, Hong Kong17 who have been vying for their very own pieces of the Alpha pie all along. Through necessity, collaboration will rise sharply among “Hedge funds will continue to extract financial markets ecosystem participants (buy side, sell side and processors). For example, an increased reliance the most talented people from the on processing firms, like custodians, along with a rise buy side and the sell side. How will in the use of vendor utilities will help reduce the bloat [incumbent] firms retain such people to that exists on the sell side. Although the sell side still performs much of its own processing, transparency and generate Alpha?” speed pressures – as well as the push for innovation and – C level Executive, universal bank, New York15 specialization – are driving the sell side to follow in the footsteps of the buy side by turning to processors.

The growing importance of alliances The restructuring of business and operating models In an industry reshaped by speed and transparency, around clients growth and competitive differentiation will increasingly For some time, firms have acknowledged the importance depend on partnering. Strategic alliances will be critical to of focusing on client needs, but the shift toward true client overcoming the inertia, inefficiency and redundancies that orientation is only in its infancy. Clients have become a “build it yourself” philosophy and siloed organizational savvier and more demanding, and responding to their structure have wrought. U.S. broker dealers, for example, needs will require firms to restructure their operating reported that internal inefficiency resulted in unnecessary models. Clients want evidence of: costs of US$2.2 billion in 2004 – more than half from • Investment – Financial commitment to improving client processing redundancy (US$1.2 billion), with the balance relationships attributed to both operational inefficiency (US$650 million) and unnecessary risk exposure (US$400 million).16 • Innovation – An innovative culture that goes beyond product innovation By partnering, firms can address pressing internal • Specialization – The ability to meet specific client challenges and improve their ability to respond to change; demands better than the competition. in other words, achieve greater levels of agility (see Figure 3). To do this, financial markets firms will increasingly turn Client demands will ultimately require that firms become to partners, both to enhance core capabilities and gain specialist enterprises. Most firms equate specialization access to non-core capabilities. with shrinking capabilities, headcount and breadth, but this is not the underlying intent. Specialization is about far greater levels of focus on the client.

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Figure 3. Internal challenges and business agility.

Internal challenges over the next ten years A Ability to quickly respond to forces affecting your business B (Percentage of survey respondents by segment) C (Percentage of survey respondents by segment) C

Regulatory burden Very high Lack of skills High Short-term planning Moderate Governance issues Low High implementation costs Very low Back- and front-office disconnect n = 271

Technology not integrated 0 10 20 30 40 50

Legacy technology Percent Buy side Insufficient or delayed data Sell side Processors Weak vendor management n = 271

0 3 6 9 12 15 18 Percent

Note: AExecutives were asked: “Which of the following internal barriers are most likely to impede your firm’s ability to execute its strategy over the next ten years?” (Choose up to three); BExecutives were asked: “How would you rate your firm’s ability to respond to external forces affecting your business? (Rate on a scale of 1-5).” Source: IBM Institute for Business Value/Economist Intelligence Unit Survey.

“Clients will demand more choice and New value engines – Risk assumption and risk mitigation As 2015 approaches, where will the new sources of even more customized information. profitability and revenue growth emerge? Thanks to the Firms need much deeper client insight wide-ranging effects of transparency and speed, profit to create meaningful client interactions opportunity will bifurcate on a risk dimension, into risk assumption and risk mitigation activities. On one hand, – but achieving this depends on being there will be value in activities that require the assumption focused on your specific domain. of risk (alternative asset management and performance Being generic just won’t work anymore sharing, for example). On the other hand will be activities that reduce risk on behalf of others (such as those – specialization is key.” performed by custodians, vendor processing utilities or – Chief Strategist, Wall Street firm, New York18 advice givers).

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To better understand probable sources of growing and (indicated by gray circles) that all fall within the lower left declining value over the next ten years, the IBM Institute quadrant, indicating below average growth and below for Business Value developed a financial model to gauge average profitability. the likely profitability and revenue outlook for a range of industry activities (see Figure 4). The analysis focused The model indicates that future growth and profit potential 19 on activities that are expected to have a high degree of are within the new value engines of risk assumption positive or negative growth over the next ten years. (indicated by green circles) and risk mitigation (indicated by blue circles). Successful firms will embrace selected The left side of this profit map model depicts pressured value engines as they simultaneously focus on reducing activities that are expected to experience slow growth. expenses associated with activities that have come under These unnecessary bundles are indicated by orange pressure. By default, those standing the middle ground will circles. Also under pressure will be transaction businesses have the most to lose in this new environment (including traditional long only active asset managers and retail and institutional agency brokers).

Figure 4. Projected profit margin and revenue growth, 2004-2015.

Below average growth Superior growth Superior proﬁ tability Superior proﬁ tability 2 Mean 10 year A revenue growth Passive asset 9.8% management 1 Pre-trade asset Structured Vendor serviceE products utilitiesG Circle size represents 2015 revenue size Long 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Unnecessary bundles Activities -1 active under Transaction business (percent) Principle pressure tradingD Risk assumption Mean 10 year mar- Prime Value gin compressionA Risk mitigation engines -2 brokerage Alternative asset -1.21% managementB

2004-2015 proﬁ t margin compression/growth 2004-2015 proﬁ Agency Post-trade asset F -3 trading service SMA/WrapC Exchanges

Below average growth Superior growth -4 Below average proﬁ tability Below average proﬁ tability 2004-2015 revenue growth (percent)

Note: AIndustry average is derived from the figures in the approach section of the appendix, revenue growth and margin compression are compounded annual growth rates; BAlternatives is inclusive of hedge funds and private equity; CSMA is separately managed accounts inclusive of high net worth and mass affluent; DPrincipal is inclusive of client principal trading and proprietary trading; EPre-trade is middle office sourcing, securities lending, performance analytics, risk and compliance services; FPost-trade is custody and fund accounting; GVendor utilities are processing service providers for sell side processing components Source: IBM Institute for Business Value profit map model; IBM Institute for Business Value analysis.

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An ongoing challenge: Regulatory compliance • Client relationships – As investors become more Not surprisingly, for the buy side, processors and the sell influential, innovation can help firms close the gap side alike, regulatory burdens were near the top of the list of between client expectations and interaction reality both external and internal challenges – no small hurdle for • Benefits of scale – As firms fully leverage the benefits of firms seeking global expansion. On average, financial markets scale, whether internally or by partnering, they can pull managers spend 20 to 30 percent of their time handling ahead of the competition. regulatory requirements; this is expected to continue into the 20 foreseeable future. Today’s terminology may lose relevancy by 2015 One respondent’s comment about the regulatory burden: There are certain terms we use to describe financial markets “It will cost US$10 to15 million, including technology, to meet industry participants: buy side, sell side and hedge funds, among regulatory requirements [for one of our divisions]. There are so many others. This terminology – used today out of convenience exception reports to be generated and that means more costs.” – may eventually become irrelevant. What categorization lies – Head of Compliance, universal bank, New York21 ahead? Perhaps it will ultimately simplify into advisers and principals. And another comment, from a regulator’s perspective: “The marketplace will always feel that there is more regulation than Jockeying for position: Who can meet investors’ necessary. Brokers don’t want to pay fees, and do not want to be changing needs? regulated because any additional regulation means an additional cost. While the buy side is likely to dominate (ability to generate Compliance is simply a necessary condition.” profits and to influence industry behavior) in the short 22 – Regulator, India term, driven largely by hedge fund growth, this is not To better manage regulatory compliance, leading firms are expected to last. Over time, investors will increasingly beginning to see the value of two actions: leveraging new demand access to better asset/liability matching. Sell side value from the necessary compliance investments, as well as firms, supported by service providers, will then be best sourcing where it makes sense. Data gathered for compliance positioned to satisfy investor needs through risk taking purposes, for example, can be used to cull new, profitable activities such as creating structured products. insights. And, in the future, firms may benefit from sourcing some of the burdensome activities that support regulatory “There is no point in paying for requirements. Beta. Beta will go to zero. Internal Power will shift: Growth opportunities management will probably be Today, industry power is shifting to investors – and to responsible for Beta management and those firms that can best meet investors’ needs. Across we will purchase structured products the changing financial markets landscape, this power shift is creating strong growth opportunities: directly from the sell side.” 23 • Market roles – As industry players jockey for position, – Large public plan the buy side, best able to meet investor needs, will Between 1995 and 2005, the two fastest growing buy side dominate for a while; over time, power will shift toward products were active mutual funds and passive institu- the sell side tional funds. Client segments offering the most growth in this period were defined benefit corporate plans and high net worth.

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In the next ten years, buy side respondents expect their The bedrock of competitive advantage: Client relationships greatest growth opportunities to lie in delivering Alpha- plus innovation generating products and serving wealthy investors. Whatever a firm’s size, seizing emerging growth opportu- Surveyed buy side executives predicted that the most nities will require deeper client relationships and a sharper growth will be in private equity and hedge funds, serving focus on innovation. Regardless of their specific industry ultra high net worth, high net worth and mass affluent roles, respondents recognized the needs to build strong client segments. As investors seek trusted advice, buy client relationships and create differentiated products as side distribution strategies are expected to shift – moving the coming decade’s top two most important sources of away from retail brokers and asset managers, and toward competitive advantage (see Figure 5). independent financial advisors and universal banks. As a Too often in the past, the ability to forge strong relation- result, firms will reconsider housing manufacturing (asset ships has been thwarted by the gap between a firm’s management) and distribution (advice) in the same firm. brand promise and the way it treats its clients. In addition For the sell side, the two fastest growing products to improving the client experience and deepening client between 1995 and 2005 were equities execution and relationships, respondents rated other client initiatives as underwriting. Regional broker/dealers and large, traditional “important” or “very important”: managing acquisition and managers were the client segments that grew the most improving retention, and optimizing existing marketing and 24 during that time. sales processes. To meet these client-focused goals, financial markets firms will have to create and sustain Sell side firms see growth opportunities in riskier activities a culture of ongoing innovation to gain a better under- and will compete with buy side firms for pension clients. standing of client needs and make the most of this well Respondents from the sell side anticipate the greatest recognized source of competitive advantage. growth in structured products and financing, serving client Beyond efficiency: Leveraging scale can tip the scales segments that include pensions, insurance funds and large, traditional managers. Overall, survey respondents expect scale to be a top competitive advantage in the coming decade. Because Processors’ greatest product growth from 1995 to 2005 of universal banks’ diversified offerings, client base and was in custody and clearing. Large, traditional managers distribution breadth, their scale potential was cited as a were their highest growth client segment for that period, significant edge. More than 75 percent of all respondents followed by regional broker/dealers. named universal banks (for example, Citigroup) when asked “Which types of firms are most likely to succeed Processors can grow by taking on activities that are over the next ten years?”25 The next two most common closer to the front office, such as providing pre-trade and answers, each mentioned by fewer than 36 percent of trade services to existing clients, with the most growth in respondents, were Wall Street/Tier 1 broker-dealers (for products for risk management, performance analytics example, Goldman Sachs) and boutique alternative and middle-office sourcing. It’s important to note that the investment managers (for example, Farallon Capital).26 end-to-end “lift-out” model of outsourcing is on the wane; rather, middle-office sourcing will be a growth engine “Wall Street firms will be acquired by when provided in a componentized manner. banks – there is a great amount of Expanding into new geographies will also provide value in the universal banking model.” attractive growth opportunities for many firms. On 27 average, respondents expect China to be the site of the – Head of Sell Side Operations, Wall Street firm, U.S. most rapid growth over the next ten years. The buy side also anticipates high potential growth in India, the sell side finds Eastern Europe attractive, and processors are enthu- siastic about Western Europe.

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Figure 5. Most important sources of competitive advantage over the next ten years.

Depth of client relationships

Product innovation

Trustworthiness

Risk management excellence

Being a low-cost provider

Operational excellence

Quality advice

Geographic breadth

Alpha generation expertise

Product breadth

Ability to use balance sheet

Quality research

Beta generation expertise

Proprietary trading Buy side Agent execution Sell side Processors Principle execution n = 271

0 3 6 9 12 15 18 Percentage of survey respondents by segment

Note: Executives were asked: “Which sources of potential competitive advantage are likely to be most important to your firm over the next ten years? (Choose up to 3).” Source: IBM Institute of Business Value/Economist Intelligence Unit Survey.

One of the assumptions underlying the attractiveness their future growth strategies, firms will need to leverage of the universal banks’ business model is that efficiency scale while avoiding its traps (for example, internal silos or automatically comes with scale. In reality, however, firms excessive bureaucracy). often end up squandering potential scale benefits. Survey results show that firms often fail to leverage their large Ultimately, investor needs will dictate future operating numbers of client relationships and extensive distribution model attributes for financial markets industry participants networks for either improved cross-selling or product (see Figure 6). Current capabilities notwithstanding, no innovation. And, those firms that do successfully achieve existing operating model will ensure a firm’s success efficiency through scale, aiming for other important scale or failure in 2015. The key to remaining relevant is to benefits – such as greater scope, depth and breadth verify that the operating model optimally supports the – will prove vital to seizing opportunities and combating firm’s chosen role in the ecosystem and its strategy for margin pressures. To support their chosen risk roles and sustained growth.

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Figure 6. Future operating model attributes.

Processors Buy side ﬁ rms Sell side ﬁ rms Manufacturing Distribution Investor

Core competency • Information reliability • Risk assumption • Performance • Advice

Success factors • Operational excellence • Risk assumption • Unconstrained • Trust • Information monetization • Risk portability investing • Customized • Beta replication • Performance sharing insight

Service focus • Processing speed • New idea formulation • Process • Customized • Information transparency • Cross asset servicing transparency • Localized • Industry knowledge

Partnering opportunities • IT infrastructure management • Back ofﬁ ce processing • Front ofﬁ ce analytics • Application development • Compliance • Risk management management • Compliance management Source: IBM Institute of Business Value analysis.

For processors, the core competency of information Executing today with 2015 in mind reliability depends on success factors such as operational With value migration already underway, financial markets excellence and the capability to monetize information. firms must start now to translate their potential competitive Because of shrinking margins, the efficiency provided advantage into real profits. Future success hinges upon by scale is critical. Processors’ partnership opportunities a longer-term market perspective that is supported by include IT infrastructure management and application concrete actions: development. • Determine your optimal long-term relationship with risk Sell side firms, with their core competency of risk • Partner selectively to fully exploit your strategic, differen- assumption, will rely more upon derivatives to enable risk tiating capabilities portability and to replicate Beta. Partnering for back-office • Optimize the profitability of each client processing and compliance management will help them meet their goals. • Develop a purposeful, systematic culture of innovation. Determine your optimal long-term relationship with risk As for buy side firms, the design of their optimal operating Does your culture make your firm better suited to act model can vary based on their targeted success factors: as a risk taker or a risk mitigator? In either case, careful for the core manufacturing competency of performance, planning is vital to strengthening risk management unconstrained investing and performance sharing capability. Offering both risk assumption and risk are most important; for the distribution competency of mitigation – although ideal from a shareholder standpoint advice, it will be essential to exhibit high levels of trust – presents many challenges across an entire firm, and customized insight. Buy side firms should consider spanning the culture, from employee compensation partnering to attain more cost-effective and higher quality models, all the way to the technology infrastructure. front office analytics, as well as risk and compliance management capabilities.

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After you identify your optimal long-term risk posture, “Technology will cause firms to change. incorporate innovative technology to better manage risk. Study respondents named many technology-related The use of technology will increase in innovations that they expect will provide a competitive order to truly globalize the investment edge (see Figure 7). and trading process.” Risk measurement systems were cited as the number one – C-level sell side executive, universal bank, New York28 technological innovation to help achieve strategic goals. Improving capabilities in client analytics, data distribution Partner selectively to fully exploit your strategic, and client/advisor connectivity were among the most differentiating capabilities frequently mentioned – all are key to supporting client Has your firm clearly defined its risk position and the relationships. Other technology improvements, such as associated core capabilities, and are you fully leveraging multi-asset class platforms, services oriented architecture assets, such as scale and talent, while reducing costs? and disaster recovery systems were also frequently The way forward is to develop a component view of your mentioned. business to enable the matching of current capabilities

Figure 7. Technology-related innovations: Greatest impact on ability to achieve strategic goals over the next ten years.

Risk measurement systems

Client analytics

Multi-asset class platforms

Client and advisor/consultant connectivity

Services oriented architecture

Software to enable smarter trading

Data distribution

Disaster recover/resiliency systems

Software to enable smarter asset management

Collaboration technologies

Derivatives standards Buy side Sell side Voice technologies Processors Equities standards

Fixed income standards n = 271

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Percentage of survey respondents by segment

Note: Executives were asked: “Which of the following technology-related innovations will have the greatest impact on your firm’s ability to achieve its strategic goals over the next ten years? (Choose all that apply).” Source: IBM Institute of Business Value/Economist Intelligence Unit Survey.

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against those required for success in a radically different Merrill Lynch and BlackRock: Alliance to separate in-house future (see Figure 8). fund unit30, 31 In February 2006, Merrill Lynch and BlackRock Inc. announced This illustrative view of current operations allows a focus a planned merger that will create the fourth largest family of on core strengths – particularly important if other players broker-distributed U.S. funds and a top ten asset manager can provide non-core, operational capabilities at a lower (in terms of worldwide assets under management). The deal cost or as a specialized expertise that bolsters core follows a nascent trend of big financial services firms splitting capabilities. off in-house fund units, while keeping a stake in the new business to maintain the profit stream. Study results demonstrate that most firms believe sourcing will greatly affect their ability to achieve their strategic goals BlackRock CEO Larry Fink was quoted as saying that he felt – to strengthen, not to shrink.29 Successful firms will partner Merrill Lynch and BlackRock could compete better in Asia by to service their clients as specialists, with some choosing combining efforts, citing the importance of having a strong to divest parts of their firms as part of a “capability swap.” foothold and a strong retail platform. This combination of Across the industry, respondents recognized the potential Merrill Lynch’s asset management business with BlackRock will have US$992 billion in assets under management and expects for growth strategies to be complementary rather than savings of US$170 million eventually, with US$70 million in strictly competitive (see Figure 9). savings the first year.

Figure 8. Business component decision matrix with decisions applied to illustrative 2015 financial markets firm.

Insight Front ofﬁ ce Risk Support Strategic Service Sales Advisory Risk component component Strategy and Internal Manage to meet the Invest in and expand partnering specialization needs of strategic to gain advantage Manufacturing/trade support components Financial Product manufacturing Research management Utility Partner component component Governance External Processing (back-ofﬁ ce) specialization Use specialists to Develop alliances to Compliance Trading processesA reduce costs and free meet critical business up resources requirements

Non-differentiating Differentiating Infrastructure Facilities Human resources ITB

Note: ATrading processes in this scenario would be leveraging the utility for some but not all trading processes; BIT infrastructure in this scenario would be leveraging the utility for some but not all IT components. Source: IBM Institute of Business Value analysis.

14 Financial markets renaissance

Figure 9. Complementary growth strategies offer opportunity for cooperation without competition. Products Client segments (Targeted for growth, by segment) (Targeted for growth, by segment)

Private equity Ultra high net worth

Hedge funds High net worth

Institutional funds Mass affluent

Mutual funds Corporate (pension)

Structured products Insurers

Financing Large traditional managers

Mergers and acquisition Boutique traditional managers

Execution Regional broker-dealers Risk management Buy side Performance analytics Sell side Outsourcing Processors n = 271 Custody

Note: Executives were asked: “In which segments/products do the main growth opportunities lie for your firm over the next ten years? (Choose all that apply).”

Optimize the profitability of each client “We must shift from managing the Do your clients agree that your firm consistently keeps its client service commitments? Since that is frequently not product to managing the client.” the case, work is needed to close the gap between the – Division Head, Sales & Trading, universal bank, brand promise and the interaction reality. London32 Investments will be necessary to shift from a transaction orientation to a client orientation. Clients will insist upon Yet firms cannot afford to overlook another type of doing business with firms that can demonstrate that they investment as part of becoming client oriented: gaining also have “skin in the game” – whether by assuming more the capability to mine profits. The ability to measure client risk, providing quality advice or becoming better at under- profitability is essential, especially to justify the costs of standing client needs. Restructuring will be necessary offering advice and tools. This poses a challenge, but it is to develop the capabilities to meet client demands, also an opportunity. Only one interviewed firm already had whether they are algorithms, trading ideas or financial the ability to measure client profitability across product planning advice. Over time, this investment will lead to lines and geographies. profits as those that can become trusted advisors are compensated for the insight they provide.

15 IBM Business Consulting Services

Develop a purposeful, systematic culture of innovation • Do you foster a culture of innovation? Are you Does your firm have a formal, measurable system for committed to invest in, nurture and reward ongoing, encouraging, communicating, developing and tracking multidisciplinary ideas in products, markets, processes new ideas? Continuing to create differentiated, innovative and operating models? products, such as custom derivatives or asset-liability matching funds can help provide the right balance Conclusion between client demand and innovation. Ultimately, firms need to reexamine their relationships with risk to uncover new ways to grow in the industry's Survey respondents recognized the importance of renaissance. Transparency and speed are driving firms to product innovation, but place much less emphasis on develop a true client orientation and optimize risk/return the broader types of innovation – new ways of servicing efficiency, and are pushing them to become specialist clients, refined transaction processes, new ways to enter enterprises – a task that will require a conscientious markets, radically different business models and more approach to innovation and significant modification of – that will be required in the emerging environment. A their operating models. By assessing its own particular purposeful, systematic culture of innovation encourages strengths and long-term strategic goals, each firm can then innovation at all levels of the business. articulate and execute its most profitable future relationship Measuring up with risk. So, how can you determine where you stand when it To learn more about this IBM Institute for Business Value comes to preparing for the financial markets landscape financial markets study, please contact us at [email protected]. of 2015? As you rethink the meaning and value of risk com. You can also browse a full catalog of our research in search of future profitability, the following questions at: can help you appraise your own firm’s strengths and ibm.com/iibv weaknesses. • Do you have risk eminence? Are you recognized as a Authors risk management leader and are your risk management Suzanne Dence, Senior Consultant, IBM Institute for organizations, systems and data analysis organized Business Value, IBM Business Consulting Services. She across products and business segments? Or, do a can be reached at [email protected]. siloed risk management organization and lack of Daniel Latimore, CFA, Global Research Director, IBM comprehensive data analytics peg you as a follower? Institute for Business Value, IBM Business Consulting • Do you squander the potential benefits of scale? Do Services. He can be reached at [email protected]. you use a component view of your firm to leverage John White, Managing Consultant, IBM Institute for shared, efficient use of platforms, systems and Business Value, IBM Business Consulting Services. He processes to identify and eliminate redundancy across can be reached at [email protected]. products, channels and geographies? Contributors • Do you deliver on your brand promise? Have you Rahul Chakrabarty, IBM Institute for Business Value, IBM proven your ability to match brand promise with well- Business Consulting Services. defined, measurable initiatives that meet client needs and attain high levels of client satisfaction? Cormac Petit, Managing Consultant, IBM Institute for Business Value, IBM Business Consulting Services. • Do you use data as a weapon? Do you capture market and client data on a single, firmwide basis, with storage Acknowledgements and analysis capabilities that enable insights and We would also like to thank the 130 clients who partici- actions across client and business silos? pated in our qualitative interviews and the Economist Intelligence Unit for overachieving on survey execution.

16 Financial markets renaissance

Related publications References “Expanding the innovation horizon: Global 2006 CEO 1 IBM Institute for Business Value/Economist Intelligence study.” IBM Business Consulting Services. March 2006. Unit survey. Treadway, Morris, Stephen Rogers, Spencer Lin and Susan 2 Thomson ONE Banker, company reports, Yahoo Stewart. “The agile CFO: Acting on business insight.” IBM Finance, IBM Institute for Business Value. Institute for Business Value, December 2005. 3 IBM Institute for Business Value/Economist Intelligence Pohle, George, Peter Korsten, Shanker Ramamurthy Unit Survey. “Moderately able” corresponds to a and Steven Foecking. “The specialized enterprise: A response of “3” to the question, “How would you rate fundamental redesign of firms and industries.” IBM your firm’s ability to respond to external forces affecting Institute for Business Value. November 2005. your business? (Rate on a scale of 1-5)?” Dence, Suzanne L., Daniel W. Latimore, Mukund Prasad 4 Smith, Alexander. “City poem: The fear of dying.” (1830- and John M. White. “Asset managers turning up the heat: 1867.) Creating differentiated value under uncertainty.” IBM 5 Financial markets firms include broker dealers, universal Institute for Business Value. August 2005. banks, asset managers, hedge funds, plan sponsors, Dence, Suzanne L., Daniel W. Latimore, Mukund Prasad custodians, exchanges and clearing firms. Sixty-six and John M. White. “Capturing the sell-side upside: Three percent of business leaders are C-level or divisional steps to focused execution.” IBM Institute for Business head with the remainder Director, SVP or VP level. Value. April 2005. 6 Dimson, Elroy, Paul Marsh and Mike Staunton. “Triumph About IBM Business Consulting Services of the Optimists: 101 Years of Global Investment With business experts in more than 160 countries, IBM Returns.” 2002; IBM Institute for Business Value analysis. Business Consulting Services provides clients with deep 7 IBM Institute for Business Value/Economist Intelligence business process and industry expertise across 17 Unit survey. industries, using innovation to identify, create and deliver 8 Ibid. value faster. We draw on the full breadth of IBM capabilities, 9 standing behind our advice to help clients implement IBM Institute for Business value profit map model (see solutions designed to deliver business outcomes with far- Figure 4 in this document). reaching impact and sustainable results. 10 Ibid. 11 Ibid. 12 Ibid. 13 IBM Institute for Business Value/Economist Intelligence Unit survey. 14 Dence, Suzanne, Daniel Latimore, Mukund Prasad and John White. “Asset managers turning up the heat: Creating differentiated value under uncertainty.” IBM Institute for Business Value. November 2005.

17 © Copyright IBM Corporation 2006 15 IBM Institute for Business Value/Economist Intelligence Unit Survey. IBM Global Services 16 Route 100 IBM Institute for Business Value/Economist Intelligence Unit survey; Somers, NY 10589 To w e r G ro u p. U.S.A.

17 Produced in the United States of America IBM Institute for Business Value/Economist Intelligence Unit survey. 03-06 All Rights Reserved 18 IBM Institute for Business Value/Economist Intelligence Unit survey. IBM, and the IBM logo are trademarks or 19 Risk assumption must be value added risk that leads to a sustainable registered trademarks of International Business Machines Corporation in the United States, other economic profit. IBM Institute for Business Value analysis. countries, or both. 20 IBM Institute for Business Value/Economist Intelligence Unit survey. Other company, product and service names may be trademarks or service marks of others. 21 Ibid. References in this publication to IBM products 22 and services do not imply that IBM intends to Ibid. make them available in all countries in which IBM operates. 23 Ibid. 24 Ibid. 25 Ibid. 26 Ibid. 27 Ibid. 28 Ibid. 29 Ibid. 30 Spence, John and David Weidner. “Merrill, BlackRock seal deal: Firms to create $1 trillion asset-management firm.” MarketWatch. February 15, 2006. http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BA 1A8FDD6%2D7CDE%2D4140%2DAB5F%2D41CD36247D91%7D&sitei d=google 31 Merrill Lynch press release. February 15, 2006. http://www.merrilllynch.com/ index.asp?id=7695_7696_8149_63464_64119_64465 32 IBM Institute for Business Value/Economist Intelligence Unit survey.

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