october 2008 . Vol 1 . Issue 11

The Threat of Terrorism to People Against Gangsterism and Drugs however, it is still debatable whether (PAGAD). This latter group initiated a right-wing groups would broaden their the 2010 Soccer World Cup campaign of urban terrorism in Cape target selection to include non-South in South Africa Town that lasted until 2000. African nationals.4

By Anneli Botha Right-Wing Extremism People Against Gangsterism and Drugs (PAGAD) Politically, South Africa is currently and Associated Organizations in 2010, south africa will host the FIFA confronted with a number of challenges, Although PAGAD and the Muslims World Cup, a major international most notably the sudden resignation of Against Global Oppression (MAGO) sporting event. Although South Africa President Thabo Mbeki in September. indicated a prior willingness to target has previously hosted a number of Fear that leadership changes in the foreign representatives, as manifested international sports events1 and large country might also contribute to a in the attack on Planet Hollywood gatherings2 that attracted regional change in political direction could on August 25, 1998, their target and international attention, hosting prompt right-wing extremists to act in selection was predominately domestic. the soccer World Cup is a markedly conjunction with existing motivating Irrespective of the fact that the violent different security scenario. The factors such as affirmative action, land activities of PAGAD came to a standstill amount of domestic and international reform, and cultural marginalization. in 2000—as a result of a number of attention focused on each World Cup successful operations executed by South is tremendous. In anticipation of this African security forces—the threat coming event, it is important to assess “Terrorists who hope to from domestic Islamist extremists the terrorism risks that could threaten attract media attention might come in the form of small cell the competition. South Africa is not structures, motivated by strong anti- on the same level of alertness toward might consider an Western sentiments and fueled by U.S. terrorism than other countries in the attack directed at a large involvement in Iraq and Afghanistan. region, and it is this degree of comfort The underlying reasons and sentiment that contributes to the country’s concentration of people that led to the structure or changes in vulnerability as a potential target. where the traditional PAGAD’s target selection still exist. In South Africa has experienced domestic addition to the fact that local community terrorist attacks in the past, and during security measures are not members have called for a return of the last decade a number of high- in place.” PAGAD as an answer to the criminal profile al-Qa`ida operatives and other and drug problem in the Western Cape, transnational Islamist terrorists have members of the Muslim community were traveled through its borders. These previously extremely vocal against the factors demonstrate that South Africa The Boeremag, or Boer Force, was West, in particular the United States and the 2010 games could be at risk. the last right-wing group that raised and its “war on terrorism.” Although concern, yet the manifestation of right- demonstrating against the war in Iraq, Domestic Terrorism wing extremism sporadically comes and Afghanistan and the Israeli occupation There are a number of domestic terrorist goes and often involves a core group of Palestine should not be categorized threats facing South Africa in the of people who plan and execute their as a security threat, it is still significant lead-up to the 2010 games. Although activities in a clandestine fashion. This as a manifestation of sentiment. active or dormant domestic terrorist makes it extremely challenging to come organizations might have previously to an accurate assessment of the future Furthermore, like many countries, focused their attention on exclusively structure, reach and activities of right- South Africa faces the threat from domestic grievances and targets, prior wing extremist groups. possible homegrown terrorists who experience indicates that domestic could become attracted to al-Qa`ida’s terrorist groups might capitalize on the Since 1994, these groups have tended ideology and download military training international attention the games offer to use explosive devices directed at manuals from the internet. Countering in an attempt to achieve recognition the broader infrastructure, including the threat from radicalized small cells is for their grievances. Although South bridges, railway lines and dams. They a daunting task. Africa’s domestic terrorist groups are have also, however, previously planned currently dormant, the country has attacks on soccer games, such as the Transnational Terrorism been confronted with periodic incidents foiled plot in December 2002 in which South Africa has not been victim to a of right-wing extremism since 1994, Boeremag member Herman van Rooyen transnational terrorist attack on its and also with an Islamic-oriented rigged a car bomb with 384 kilograms soil. Nevertheless, South Africa is pressure or vigilante group known as of explosives, together with two bags often categorized as a “safe haven” for of nuts and bolts. The car bomb was 1 Among these events were the Rugby World Cup in apparently meant for a game between 4 The focus of planned and executed attacks perpetrated 1995, African Cup of Nations in 1996, the All Africa Kaizer Chiefs and the Sundowns at by right-wing extremists was to date exclusively directed 3 Games in 1999 and the Cricket World Cup in 2003. Loftus Versfeld. Despite these concerns, at the government and the black community in South Af- 2 These include the World Summit on Sustainable De- rica. Although soccer is associated with the black com- velopment in 2002 and the Non-Aligned Movement 3 “Boeremag Planned to Detonate 384kg Bomb,” Inde- munity, targeting an international sports event would be summit in 1998. pendent Online [Cape Town], December 15, 2002. a new trend. october 2008 . Vol 1 . Issue 11 transnational terrorists since a number Africa would host the 2010 World Cup Although the motivation is purely of them have traveled through the was made in 2004, the possibility exists criminal, the possibility exists that an country. These individuals include: that a “sleeper cell” could be preparing individual or small group of terrorists for a terrorist attack on the upcoming might buy commercial grade explosives - Khalfan Khamis Mohamed, a Tanzanian games. from criminal elements on the black national and al-Qa`ida operative market. Driven by financial gain, who fled to Cape Town in 1999 in the Security Challenges criminals with access to commercial aftermath of the August 1998 bombings There are a number of factors that explosives might not have a moral in Kenya and Tanzania.5 terrorists could exploit to target the 2010 objection to selling them, especially World Cup. The following includes a list when the ultimate aims of the buyer are - Saud Memon, a Pakistani with of these factors, in addition to suggested concealed. The Madrid train bombings suspected al-Qa`ida connections steps that the South African government served as an example of the link between who, according to media reports, was should take to mitigate the risks. terrorism and crime. allegedly “picked up” by U.S. officials in South Africa on March 7, 2003.6 Availability and Protection of Selected Targets In addressing this vulnerability, FIFA will be responsible for the security countering rising crime should be seen as - In April 2004, the national police at the World Cup in partnership with part of an all inclusive holistic strategy. commissioner announced that three the South African Police Service. In Although considerable efforts are taken suspected al-Qa`ida operatives of Syrian addition to activity at the stadiums, the to counter specific trends—for example, and Jordanian origin were arrested in organizers as well as private businesses the theft of commercial explosives used South Africa, after they had stayed in will make provisions for additional in ATM bombings—the potential use of the country for almost a year.7 entertainment, including: exhibition commercial explosives acquired through halls at each venue, big screen viewing criminal activities should be factored - Haroon Rashid Aswat was implicated facilities close to the stadium, big into security calculations. in the July 7, 2005 London bombings screen facilities that fall outside the and for setting up a terrorist training responsibility of FIFA, and sports Operating Undetected camp in Oregon in 1999. He was arrested cafés that will attract spectators. These A key concern is the ease in which in Zambia on July 20, 2005, but prior to additional activities and venues bring potential terrorists can enter or exit his arrest he had lived in Johannesburg their own unique security challenges. South Africa. The protection and for five months.8 Terrorists who hope to attract media monitoring of formal and informal attention might consider an attack points of entry are areas of concern. - Mohammed Gulzar was a suspect in directed at a large concentration of Although counter-measures were put the UK trial of eight men accused of people where the traditional security in place at international airports to plotting to blow up airliners using liquid measures are not in place. address this vulnerability, South Africa explosives as they traveled between the is confronted with long porous borders United Kingdom, the United States and Although hardening potential targets is that are difficult to monitor and control. Canada in 2006. British authorities a clear necessity, it will also be important The possibility of terrorists using alleged that he entered Britain on a to inform South African citizens of their informal points of entry, also used by flight from South Africa via Mauritius responsibilities in acting as the “eyes illegal immigrants from neighboring under the name of Altaf Ravat on July and ears” of the police. There is already countries, was confirmed by Haroon 18, 2006 after he had lived in South a police hotline, but it may be prudent Rashid Aswat, who was eventually Africa for a few years. His fake passport to establish a dedicated open line of arrested in Zambia. A sub-regional also showed a one-day trip to Swaziland communication for suspicious activities approach and cooperation between on July 13, 2006. Gulzar, however, was in relation to the World Cup. police agencies and immigration in acquitted in September 2008.9 securing land borders is vital. The Access to Weaponry and/or Explosives Southern Africa Regional Police Chiefs These examples have raised concern that The ability to acquire military or Cooperation Organization (SARPCCO), there could be undetected al-Qa`ida- commercial grade explosives in South the sub-regional bureau of Interpol, has affiliated terrorists in South Africa. Africa increases the danger that already committed itself to assisting Since the announcement that South terrorists might pose. South Africa South Africa. is experiencing an alarming increase 5 Jean le May and Andre Koopman, “How South Af- in Automated Teller Machine (ATM) Corruption also plays a role, rica Nabbed Embassy ‘Bomber,’” Cape Argus, October 8, bombings in which commercial particularly in relation to the ability of 1999. explosives are used. To place this non-South African nationals to acquire 6 Azaz Syed and Abbas Naqvi, “Saud Memon Dies in threat in context, ATM bombings have South African identity documents Hospital,” Daily Times, May 19, 2007. increased by 3,000% in the past three and passports. It is particularly the 7 “South African Police Say Key Landmarks Targeted by years. Using explosives stolen from latter that has led to growing concern Al-Qa’idah,” BBC, August 4, 2004. mines, an estimated 292 ATMs were within the international community. 8 “SA-Linked Terror Suspect Detained in Zambia,” Daily blown up across the country between In contrast to the falsification of these 10 News, July 28, 2005. January 1, 2008 and July 12, 2008. documents, criminals and potential 9 Ian MacLeod, “Al-Qaeda’s Central Leadership Active, Experts Say,” Ottawa Citizen, April 30, 2008. 10 “ATM Bombings up 3000%” News24.com, July 12, 2008. october 2008 . Vol 1 . Issue 11 terrorists have access to blank official passports and have even managed to get passports issued under fraudulent names. For example, in August 2004 security personnel in London recovered hundreds of South African passports.11 Despite whistle-blowing initiatives and better salaries for government officials, corruption can only be countered through initiatives to rebuild essential values and encourage professionalism.

Ability to be Incorporated in the Local Community How well terrorists can fit into the local community often determines their success. This is accomplished primarily through two methods. The first is marriage with a local national, which also includes getting formally married by fraudulent means. The second is through pockets of support among immigrant communities (legal or illegal). The lack of trust and communal responsibility that exists in South Africa makes this an area for concern.

Conclusion Preparing and hosting the FIFA World Cup in 2010 brings tremendous opportunities to South Africa, from awakening a sense of patriotism, to the creation of new employment opportunities and the building and revamping of infrastructure. Nevertheless, the 2010 World Cup also creates opportunities for criminals and terrorists to achieve their objectives. It is essential that security forces take this risk seriously so that they can mitigate any potential terrorist threats or security weaknesses that arise during the next two years.

Anneli Botha has been a senior researcher on terrorism at the Institute for Security Studies (ISS) in Pretoria since 2003. After completing an honors degree in International Politics, she joined the South African Police Service, Crime Intelligence, in 1993 during which she inter alia focused on terrorism and religious extremism. She earned a master’s degree in Political Studies from the Rand-Afrikaans University in 1999 that focused on the historical development of terrorism, religious extremism and PAGAD. She has a specific interest in research on the underlying causes of terrorism, radicalization and counter-terrorism strategies.

11 “South African Police Say Key Landmarks Targeted by Al-Qa’idah.”