Introduction to Game Theory-2
Total Page:16
File Type:pdf, Size:1020Kb
Load more
Recommended publications
-
Game Theory 2: Extensive-Form Games and Subgame Perfection
Game Theory 2: Extensive-Form Games and Subgame Perfection 1 / 26 Dynamics in Games How should we think of strategic interactions that occur in sequence? Who moves when? And what can they do at different points in time? How do people react to different histories? 2 / 26 Modeling Games with Dynamics Players Player function I Who moves when Terminal histories I Possible paths through the game Preferences over terminal histories 3 / 26 Strategies A strategy is a complete contingent plan Player i's strategy specifies her action choice at each point at which she could be called on to make a choice 4 / 26 An Example: International Crises Two countries (A and B) are competing over a piece of land that B occupies Country A decides whether to make a demand If Country A makes a demand, B can either acquiesce or fight a war If A does not make a demand, B keeps land (game ends) A's best outcome is Demand followed by Acquiesce, worst outcome is Demand and War B's best outcome is No Demand and worst outcome is Demand and War 5 / 26 An Example: International Crises A can choose: Demand (D) or No Demand (ND) B can choose: Fight a war (W ) or Acquiesce (A) Preferences uA(D; A) = 3 > uA(ND; A) = uA(ND; W ) = 2 > uA(D; W ) = 1 uB(ND; A) = uB(ND; W ) = 3 > uB(D; A) = 2 > uB(D; W ) = 1 How can we represent this scenario as a game (in strategic form)? 6 / 26 International Crisis Game: NE Country B WA D 1; 1 3X; 2X Country A ND 2X; 3X 2; 3X I Is there something funny here? I Is there something funny here? I Specifically, (ND; W )? I Is there something funny here? -
Lecture 4 Rationalizability & Nash Equilibrium Road
Lecture 4 Rationalizability & Nash Equilibrium 14.12 Game Theory Muhamet Yildiz Road Map 1. Strategies – completed 2. Quiz 3. Dominance 4. Dominant-strategy equilibrium 5. Rationalizability 6. Nash Equilibrium 1 Strategy A strategy of a player is a complete contingent-plan, determining which action he will take at each information set he is to move (including the information sets that will not be reached according to this strategy). Matching pennies with perfect information 2’s Strategies: HH = Head if 1 plays Head, 1 Head if 1 plays Tail; HT = Head if 1 plays Head, Head Tail Tail if 1 plays Tail; 2 TH = Tail if 1 plays Head, 2 Head if 1 plays Tail; head tail head tail TT = Tail if 1 plays Head, Tail if 1 plays Tail. (-1,1) (1,-1) (1,-1) (-1,1) 2 Matching pennies with perfect information 2 1 HH HT TH TT Head Tail Matching pennies with Imperfect information 1 2 1 Head Tail Head Tail 2 Head (-1,1) (1,-1) head tail head tail Tail (1,-1) (-1,1) (-1,1) (1,-1) (1,-1) (-1,1) 3 A game with nature Left (5, 0) 1 Head 1/2 Right (2, 2) Nature (3, 3) 1/2 Left Tail 2 Right (0, -5) Mixed Strategy Definition: A mixed strategy of a player is a probability distribution over the set of his strategies. Pure strategies: Si = {si1,si2,…,sik} σ → A mixed strategy: i: S [0,1] s.t. σ σ σ i(si1) + i(si2) + … + i(sik) = 1. If the other players play s-i =(s1,…, si-1,si+1,…,sn), then σ the expected utility of playing i is σ σ σ i(si1)ui(si1,s-i) + i(si2)ui(si2,s-i) + … + i(sik)ui(sik,s-i). -
Equilibrium Refinements
Equilibrium Refinements Mihai Manea MIT Sequential Equilibrium I In many games information is imperfect and the only subgame is the original game. subgame perfect equilibrium = Nash equilibrium I Play starting at an information set can be analyzed as a separate subgame if we specify players’ beliefs about at which node they are. I Based on the beliefs, we can test whether continuation strategies form a Nash equilibrium. I Sequential equilibrium (Kreps and Wilson 1982): way to derive plausible beliefs at every information set. Mihai Manea (MIT) Equilibrium Refinements April 13, 2016 2 / 38 An Example with Incomplete Information Spence’s (1973) job market signaling game I The worker knows her ability (productivity) and chooses a level of education. I Education is more costly for low ability types. I Firm observes the worker’s education, but not her ability. I The firm decides what wage to offer her. In the spirit of subgame perfection, the optimal wage should depend on the firm’s beliefs about the worker’s ability given the observed education. An equilibrium needs to specify contingent actions and beliefs. Beliefs should follow Bayes’ rule on the equilibrium path. What about off-path beliefs? Mihai Manea (MIT) Equilibrium Refinements April 13, 2016 3 / 38 An Example with Imperfect Information Courtesy of The MIT Press. Used with permission. Figure: (L; A) is a subgame perfect equilibrium. Is it plausible that 2 plays A? Mihai Manea (MIT) Equilibrium Refinements April 13, 2016 4 / 38 Assessments and Sequential Rationality Focus on extensive-form games of perfect recall with finitely many nodes. An assessment is a pair (σ; µ) I σ: (behavior) strategy profile I µ = (µ(h) 2 ∆(h))h2H: system of beliefs ui(σjh; µ(h)): i’s payoff when play begins at a node in h randomly selected according to µ(h), and subsequent play specified by σ. -
Lecture Notes
GRADUATE GAME THEORY LECTURE NOTES BY OMER TAMUZ California Institute of Technology 2018 Acknowledgments These lecture notes are partially adapted from Osborne and Rubinstein [29], Maschler, Solan and Zamir [23], lecture notes by Federico Echenique, and slides by Daron Acemoglu and Asu Ozdaglar. I am indebted to Seo Young (Silvia) Kim and Zhuofang Li for their help in finding and correcting many errors. Any comments or suggestions are welcome. 2 Contents 1 Extensive form games with perfect information 7 1.1 Tic-Tac-Toe ........................................ 7 1.2 The Sweet Fifteen Game ................................ 7 1.3 Chess ............................................ 7 1.4 Definition of extensive form games with perfect information ........... 10 1.5 The ultimatum game .................................. 10 1.6 Equilibria ......................................... 11 1.7 The centipede game ................................... 11 1.8 Subgames and subgame perfect equilibria ...................... 13 1.9 The dollar auction .................................... 14 1.10 Backward induction, Kuhn’s Theorem and a proof of Zermelo’s Theorem ... 15 2 Strategic form games 17 2.1 Definition ......................................... 17 2.2 Nash equilibria ...................................... 17 2.3 Classical examples .................................... 17 2.4 Dominated strategies .................................. 22 2.5 Repeated elimination of dominated strategies ................... 22 2.6 Dominant strategies .................................. -
More Experiments on Game Theory
More Experiments on Game Theory Syngjoo Choi Spring 2010 Experimental Economics (ECON3020) Game theory 2 Spring2010 1/28 Playing Unpredictably In many situations there is a strategic advantage associated with being unpredictable. Experimental Economics (ECON3020) Game theory 2 Spring2010 2/28 Playing Unpredictably In many situations there is a strategic advantage associated with being unpredictable. Experimental Economics (ECON3020) Game theory 2 Spring2010 2/28 Mixed (or Randomized) Strategy In the penalty kick, Left (L) and Right (R) are the pure strategies of the kicker and the goalkeeper. A mixed strategy refers to a probabilistic mixture over pure strategies in which no single pure strategy is played all the time. e.g., kicking left with half of the time and right with the other half of the time. A penalty kick in a soccer game is one example of games of pure con‡icit, essentially called zero-sum games in which one player’s winning is the other’sloss. Experimental Economics (ECON3020) Game theory 2 Spring2010 3/28 The use of pure strategies will result in a loss. What about each player playing heads half of the time? Matching Pennies Games In a matching pennies game, each player uncovers a penny showing either heads or tails. One player takes both coins if the pennies match; otherwise, the other takes both coins. Left Right Top 1, 1, 1 1 Bottom 1, 1, 1 1 Does there exist a Nash equilibrium involving the use of pure strategies? Experimental Economics (ECON3020) Game theory 2 Spring2010 4/28 Matching Pennies Games In a matching pennies game, each player uncovers a penny showing either heads or tails. -
8. Maxmin and Minmax Strategies
CMSC 474, Introduction to Game Theory 8. Maxmin and Minmax Strategies Mohammad T. Hajiaghayi University of Maryland Outline Chapter 2 discussed two solution concepts: Pareto optimality and Nash equilibrium Chapter 3 discusses several more: Maxmin and Minmax Dominant strategies Correlated equilibrium Trembling-hand perfect equilibrium e-Nash equilibrium Evolutionarily stable strategies Worst-Case Expected Utility For agent i, the worst-case expected utility of a strategy si is the minimum over all possible Husband Opera Football combinations of strategies for the other agents: Wife min u s ,s Opera 2, 1 0, 0 s-i i ( i -i ) Football 0, 0 1, 2 Example: Battle of the Sexes Wife’s strategy sw = {(p, Opera), (1 – p, Football)} Husband’s strategy sh = {(q, Opera), (1 – q, Football)} uw(p,q) = 2pq + (1 – p)(1 – q) = 3pq – p – q + 1 We can write uw(p,q) For any fixed p, uw(p,q) is linear in q instead of uw(sw , sh ) • e.g., if p = ½, then uw(½,q) = ½ q + ½ 0 ≤ q ≤ 1, so the min must be at q = 0 or q = 1 • e.g., minq (½ q + ½) is at q = 0 minq uw(p,q) = min (uw(p,0), uw(p,1)) = min (1 – p, 2p) Maxmin Strategies Also called maximin A maxmin strategy for agent i A strategy s1 that makes i’s worst-case expected utility as high as possible: argmaxmin ui (si,s-i ) si s-i This isn’t necessarily unique Often it is mixed Agent i’s maxmin value, or security level, is the maxmin strategy’s worst-case expected utility: maxmin ui (si,s-i ) si s-i For 2 players it simplifies to max min u1s1, s2 s1 s2 Example Wife’s and husband’s strategies -
Subgame Perfect (-)Equilibrium in Perfect Information Games
Subgame perfect (-)equilibrium in perfect information games J´anosFlesch∗ April 15, 2016 Abstract We discuss recent results on the existence and characterization of subgame perfect ({)equilibrium in perfect information games. The game. We consider games with perfect information and deterministic transitions. Such games can be given by a directed tree.1 In this tree, each node is associated with a player, who controls this node. The outgoing arcs at this node represent the actions available to this player at this node. We assume that each node has at least one successor, rather than having terminal nodes.2 Play of the game starts at the root. At any node z that play visits, the player who controls z has to choose one of the actions at z, which brings play to a next node. This induces an infinite path in the tree from the root, which we call a play. Depending on this play, each player receives a payoff. Note that these payoffs are fairly general. This setup encompasses the case when the actions induce instantaneous rewards which are then aggregated into a payoff, possibly by taking the total discounted sum or the long-term average. It also includes payoff functions considered in the literature of computer science (reachability games, etc.). Subgame-perfect (-)equilibrium. We focus on pure strategies for the players. A central solution concept in such games is subgame-perfect equilibrium, which is a strategy profile that induces a Nash equilibrium in every subgame, i.e. when starting at any node in the tree, no player has an incentive to deviate individually from his continuation strategy. -
Subgame-Perfect Equilibria in Mean-Payoff Games
Subgame-perfect Equilibria in Mean-payoff Games Léonard Brice ! Université Gustave Eiffel, France Jean-François Raskin ! Université Libre de Bruxelles, Belgium Marie van den Bogaard ! Université Gustave Eiffel, France Abstract In this paper, we provide an effective characterization of all the subgame-perfect equilibria in infinite duration games played on finite graphs with mean-payoff objectives. To this end, we introduce the notion of requirement, and the notion of negotiation function. We establish that the plays that are supported by SPEs are exactly those that are consistent with the least fixed point of the negotiation function. Finally, we show that the negotiation function is piecewise linear, and can be analyzed using the linear algebraic tool box. As a corollary, we prove the decidability of the SPE constrained existence problem, whose status was left open in the literature. 2012 ACM Subject Classification Software and its engineering: Formal methods; Theory of compu- tation: Logic and verification; Theory of computation: Solution concepts in game theory. Keywords and phrases Games on graphs, subgame-perfect equilibria, mean-payoff objectives. Digital Object Identifier 10.4230/LIPIcs... 1 Introduction The notion of Nash equilibrium (NE) is one of the most important and most studied solution concepts in game theory. A profile of strategies is an NE when no rational player has an incentive to change their strategy unilaterally, i.e. while the other players keep their strategies. Thus an NE models a stable situation. Unfortunately, it is well known that, in sequential games, NEs suffer from the problem of non-credible threats, see e.g. [18]. In those games, some NE only exists when some players do not play rationally in subgames and so use non-credible threats to force the NE. -
(501B) Problem Set 5. Bayesian Games Suggested Solutions by Tibor Heumann
Dirk Bergemann Department of Economics Yale University Microeconomic Theory (501b) Problem Set 5. Bayesian Games Suggested Solutions by Tibor Heumann 1. (Market for Lemons) Here I ask that you work out some of the details in perhaps the most famous of all information economics models. By contrast to discussion in class, we give a complete formulation of the game. A seller is privately informed of the value v of the good that she sells to a buyer. The buyer's prior belief on v is uniformly distributed on [x; y] with 3 0 < x < y: The good is worth 2 v to the buyer. (a) Suppose the buyer proposes a price p and the seller either accepts or rejects p: If she accepts, the seller gets payoff p−v; and the buyer gets 3 2 v − p: If she rejects, the seller gets v; and the buyer gets nothing. Find the optimal offer that the buyer can make as a function of x and y: (b) Show that if the buyer and the seller are symmetrically informed (i.e. either both know v or neither party knows v), then trade takes place with probability 1. (c) Consider a simultaneous acceptance game in the model with private information as in part a, where a price p is announced and then the buyer and the seller simultaneously accept or reject trade at price p: The payoffs are as in part a. Find the p that maximizes the probability of trade. [SOLUTION] (a) We look for the subgame perfect equilibrium, thus we solve by back- ward induction. -
Oligopolistic Competition
Lecture 3: Oligopolistic competition EC 105. Industrial Organization Mattt Shum HSS, California Institute of Technology EC 105. Industrial Organization (Mattt Shum HSS,Lecture California 3: Oligopolistic Institute of competition Technology) 1 / 38 Oligopoly Models Oligopoly: interaction among small number of firms Conflict of interest: Each firm maximizes its own profits, but... Firm j's actions affect firm i's profits PC: firms are small, so no single firm’s actions affect other firms’ profits Monopoly: only one firm EC 105. Industrial Organization (Mattt Shum HSS,Lecture California 3: Oligopolistic Institute of competition Technology) 2 / 38 Oligopoly Models Oligopoly: interaction among small number of firms Conflict of interest: Each firm maximizes its own profits, but... Firm j's actions affect firm i's profits PC: firms are small, so no single firm’s actions affect other firms’ profits Monopoly: only one firm EC 105. Industrial Organization (Mattt Shum HSS,Lecture California 3: Oligopolistic Institute of competition Technology) 2 / 38 Oligopoly Models Oligopoly: interaction among small number of firms Conflict of interest: Each firm maximizes its own profits, but... Firm j's actions affect firm i's profits PC: firms are small, so no single firm’s actions affect other firms’ profits Monopoly: only one firm EC 105. Industrial Organization (Mattt Shum HSS,Lecture California 3: Oligopolistic Institute of competition Technology) 2 / 38 Oligopoly Models Oligopoly: interaction among small number of firms Conflict of interest: Each firm maximizes its own profits, but... Firm j's actions affect firm i's profits PC: firms are small, so no single firm’s actions affect other firms’ profits Monopoly: only one firm EC 105. -
14.12 Game Theory Lecture Notes∗ Lectures 7-9
14.12 Game Theory Lecture Notes∗ Lectures 7-9 Muhamet Yildiz Intheselecturesweanalyzedynamicgames(withcompleteinformation).Wefirst analyze the perfect information games, where each information set is singleton, and develop the notion of backwards induction. Then, considering more general dynamic games, we will introduce the concept of the subgame perfection. We explain these concepts on economic problems, most of which can be found in Gibbons. 1 Backwards induction The concept of backwards induction corresponds to the assumption that it is common knowledge that each player will act rationally at each node where he moves — even if his rationality would imply that such a node will not be reached.1 Mechanically, it is computed as follows. Consider a finite horizon perfect information game. Consider any node that comes just before terminal nodes, that is, after each move stemming from this node, the game ends. If the player who moves at this node acts rationally, he will choose the best move for himself. Hence, we select one of the moves that give this player the highest payoff. Assigning the payoff vector associated with this move to the node at hand, we delete all the moves stemming from this node so that we have a shorter game, where our node is a terminal node. Repeat this procedure until we reach the origin. ∗These notes do not include all the topics that will be covered in the class. See the slides for a more complete picture. 1 More precisely: at each node i the player is certain that all the players will act rationally at all nodes j that follow node i; and at each node i the player is certain that at each node j that follows node i the player who moves at j will be certain that all the players will act rationally at all nodes k that follow node j,...ad infinitum. -
BAYESIAN EQUILIBRIUM the Games Like Matching Pennies And
BAYESIAN EQUILIBRIUM MICHAEL PETERS The games like matching pennies and prisoner’s dilemma that form the core of most undergrad game theory courses are games in which players know each others’ preferences. Notions like iterated deletion of dominated strategies, and rationalizability actually go further in that they exploit the idea that each player puts him or herself in the shoes of other players and imagines that the others do the same thing. Games and reasoning like this apply to situations in which the preferences of the players are common knowledge. When we want to refer to situations like this, we usually say that we are interested in games of complete information. Most of the situations we study in economics aren’t really like this since we are never really sure of the motivation of the players we are dealing with. A bidder on eBay, for example, doesn’t know whether other bidders are interested in a good they would like to bid on. Once a bidder sees that another has submit a bid, he isn’t sure exactly how much the good is worth to the other bidder. When players in a game don’t know the preferences of other players, we say a game has incomplete information. If you have dealt with these things before, you may have learned the term asymmetric information. This term is less descriptive of the problem and should probably be avoided. The way we deal with incomplete information in economics is to use the ap- proach originally described by Savage in 1954. If you have taken a decision theory course, you probably learned this approach by studying Anscombe and Aumann (last session), while the approach we use in game theory is usually attributed to Harsanyi.