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AN ANALYSIS of Eagles: EMERGING and GROWTH-LEADING ECONOMIES

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AN ANALYSIS of Eagles: EMERGING and GROWTH-LEADING ECONOMIES AN ANALYSIS OF EAGLEs: EMERGING AND GROWTH-LEADING ECONOMIES Inês Maria Aparício Marques Dissertation submitted as partial requirement for the conferral of Master in International Management Supervisor: Prof. António Robalo, Prof. Catedrático, ISCTE Business School, Departamento Marketing, Operações e Gestão Geral October 2014 II RESUMO A globalização abriu imensas oportunidades em várias áreas, com os países cada vez mais integrados e, consequentemente, contribuindo para o desenvolvimento econômico mundial. Existem nações – países desenvolvidos – mais evoluídos do que outros – países emergentes, principalmente devido às fortes políticas de controlo, onde as agências governamentais desempenham um papel central na economia. Mas estas tendências estão a mudar e as nações emergentes estão a fazer avanços no sentido da liberalização, privatização e mudanças legislativas. EAGLEs (Emerging and Growth-Leading Economies) é um acrônimo criado pelo BBVA Research e designa um grupo de países que são considerados como países emergentes. É importante mencionar que o relatório pertinente é revisto anualmente, proporcionando assim uma análise actualizada e uma maior credibilidade. Em 2012, nove nações foram consideradas EAGLE: Brasil, China, Índia, Indonésia, México, Rússia, Coréia do Sul, Taiwan e Turquia. Neste trabalho foi feita uma análise comparativa aos países indicados,nomeadamente foi realizada a análise PESTEL, a fim de se verificar se um EAGLE deve ser considerado como país emergente ou avançado. Depois de um exame profundo a 100 indicadores importantes, abrangendo todas as categorias de PESTEL, chegou-se à conclusão de que a Coreia do Sul e Taiwan devem ser considerados como desenvolvidos e, portanto, devem ser excluídos dos EAGLEs. De fato, existem grandes diferenças em alguns tópicos entre 2 EAGLEs (Coréia do Sul e Taiwan) contra 7 EAGLEs (Brasil, China, Índia, Indonésia, México, Rússia e Turquia) e, a fim de defender a teoria de que ambos os países devem ser apresentados como desenvolvidos, a comparação com outros mercados desenvolvidos, pela classificação 2014 do Fundo Monetário Internacional, é tido em conta nesta tese. Palavras-chave: Globalização; EAGLEs; PESTEL; Países Emergentes/Desenvolvidos III ABSTRACT Globalization opened up immense opportunities in many fields, with countries increasingly integrated and, consequently, contributing for world economic development. There are nations – developed countries – more evolved than others – developing countries, mostly due to the strong control policies, where government agencies play a central role in economy. But these trends are changing and the emerging nations are making advances towards liberalization, privatization and legislative changes. EAGLEs (Emerging And Growth-Leading Economies) is an acronym created by the BBVA Research and designates a group of countries which are considered as emerging countries. It is important to mention that the pertinent report is revised yearly, thus providing an updated analysis and a greater credibility. In 2012, 9 nations were considered EAGLE: Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Russia, South Korea, Taiwan and Turkey. In this work was made a comparative analysis was made of the countries listed, namely was performed a PESTEL analysis, in order to verify if an EAGLE should be regarded as emerging or advanced country. After a deep examination of 100 important indicators, covering all categories of PESTEL, it came to conclusion that South Korea and Taiwan must be considered as developed and, therefore, must be excluded from EAGLE. Indeed, there are major differences in some topics between 2 EAGLEs (South Korea and Taiwan) vs 7 EAGLEs (Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Russia and Turkey) and, in order to defend the theory that both countries must be presented as developed, a comparison with other advanded markets, by 2014 International Monetary Fund classification, is take into account in this thesis. Keywords: Globalization; EAGLEs; PESTEL; Developing/Developed Countries IV V INDEX Resumo .................................................................................................................................. III Abstract ................................................................................................................................. IV Index ...................................................................................................................................... VI Index of tables and figures.................................................................................................... IX List of abbreviations ........................................................................................................... XIII Glossary ................................................................................................................................. XV Sumário executivo .............................................................................................................. XIX Chapter 1: Introduction ......................................................................................................... 1 I. Introduction ............................................................................................................ 2 II. Methodology and structure ..................................................................................... 2 Chapter 2: Globalization and emerging countries .............................................................. 4 I. Globalization .......................................................................................................... 5 II. Emerging countries ................................................................................................. 6 III. Globalization in emerging countries ....................................................................... 8 Trade ......................................................................................................................... 9 Capital movements .................................................................................................. 9 Movement of people .............................................................................................. 11 Spread of knowledge (and technology) ................................................................. 12 IV. Emerging countries: terminology ......................................................................... 13 List of emerging countries by group of analysts ................................................... 13 V. BBVA Research ................................................................................................... 14 VI. EAGLEs ............................................................................................................... 16 Introduction ........................................................................................................... 16 VI Economic outlook ................................................................................................. 17 EAGLEs Macroeconomic risks ............................................................................. 19 EAGLEs potential brakes to growth ..................................................................... 21 Chapter 3: EAGLEs – PESTEL analysis ........................................................................... 24 I. Brazil .................................................................................................................... 25 Sector composition ............................................................................................... 26 II. China .................................................................................................................... 27 Sector composition ............................................................................................... 28 III. India ...................................................................................................................... 29 Sector composition ............................................................................................... 30 IV. Indonesia .............................................................................................................. 31 Sector composition ............................................................................................... 32 V. Mexico .................................................................................................................. 33 Sector composition ............................................................................................... 34 VI. Russia ................................................................................................................... 35 Sector composition ............................................................................................... 36 VII. South Korea .......................................................................................................... 37 Sector composition ............................................................................................... 38 VIII. Taiwan .................................................................................................................. 39 Sector composition ............................................................................................... 40 IX. Turkey .................................................................................................................. 41 Sector composition ..............................................................................................
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