TITLE of PANEL / REPORT Harvard Global Health Institute-London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine Independent Panel on the Global Response to Ebola

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TITLE OF PANEL / REPORT Harvard Global Health Institute-London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine Independent Panel on the Global Response to Ebola Will Ebola change the game? Ten essential reforms before the next pandemic. The report of the Harvard-LSHTM Independent Panel on the Global Response to Ebola. ORIGINATING INSTITUTION Harvard Global Health Institute and the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine DATE RELEASED 22 November 2015 OBJECTIVE Answer the question: what reforms are needed to mend the fragile global system for outbreak prevention and response, rebuild confidence, and prevent future disasters? MEMBERSHIP • Professor Peter Piot, (Chair) London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine • Dr Ashish Jha, (Co-chair) Harvard Global Health Institute/Harvard School of Public Health • Dr Muhammad Pate, (Co-chair) Duke University • Dr Devi Sridhar, (Co-chair) Edinburgh Medical School • Dr Suerie Moon, (Study Director) Harvard Global Health Institute/Harvard School of Public Health/Harvard Kennedy School • Dr Chelsea Clinton, Bill, Hillary & Chelsea Clinton Foundation • Ms Sophie Delaunay, Médecins Sans Frontières • Ms Valnora Edwin, Campaign for Good Governance • Dr Mosoka Fallah, Action Contre La Faim International (ACF) • Mr David Fidler, Indiana University Maurer School of Law • Dr Eric Goosby, University of California, San Francisco • Ms Laurie Garrett, Council on Foreign Relations • Dr Larry Gostin, Georgetown University • Dr David Heymann, Chatham House • Dr Kelley Lee, Simon Fraser University • Dr Gabriel Leung, The University of Hong Kong • Dr Steve Morrison, Center for Strategic and International Studies • Dr Jorge Saavedra, AIDS Healthcare Foundation • Dr Marcel Tanner, Swiss Tropical & Public Health Institute WEBLINK TO REPORT http://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lancet/PIIS0140-6736%2815%2900946-0.pdf .

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COR0251 Supplementary written evidence submitted by Kelley Lee, Julianne Piper and Benoit Gomis, Pandemics and Borders Project, Faculty of Health Sciences, Simon Fraser University, Canada (COR0251) WHAT ARE YOUR MAIN RECOMMENDATIONS FOR EFFECTIVE BORDER MANAGEMENT OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS? 1. The UK, and other countries with rising vaccination levels, are entering a challenging period in relation to border management. Increased vaccination means lower transmission and thus pressures to relax public health measures including increased travel domestically and abroad. At the same time, the volume of circulating virus globally, new variants continue to evolve, with those more transmissible and virulent, and/or vaccine-evasive VOC moving the goalposts on herd immunity. 2. Most disruptive would be if a partial-escape variant emerges, i.e., one able to infect a significant number of fully vaccinated people and cause severe disease. A recent study modelled different scenarios in Canada for vaccine coverage and efficacy. The most damaging, by far, was a partial-escape variant. COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations and deaths were predicted to be twice as high as the next most serious scenario.1 Even with 75% full vaccination of the total population (Canada’s present target for the end of the summer), a partial-escape variant could result in a fourth wave. Even at 90% full vaccination, the study showed a partial-escape variant would be disruptive. 3. Effective management of travel-related risks will thus be critical over next 12-18 months, particularly given slow progress on achieving global equity in access to vaccines. There are risks to the gains achieved from mass vaccination.
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