REPUBLIQUE DU CAMEROUN REPUBLIC OF Paix-Travail-Patrie Peace-Work-Fatherland ------OBSERVATOIRE NATIONAL SUR NATIONAL OBSERVATORY LES CHANGEMENTS CLIMATIQUES ON CLIMATE CHANGE ------DIRECTION GENERALE DIRECTORATE GENERAL

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ONACC

www.onacc.cm; [email protected]; Tel : (+237) 693 370 504 / 654 392 529

BULLETIN N° 58

Dekadal climate alerts and probable impacts for the period 1st to 10 October 2020

st 1 October 2020

© NOCC October 2020, all rights reserved Supervision Prof. Dr. Eng. AMOUGOU Joseph Armathé, Director, National Observatory on Climate Change (NOCC) and Lecturer in the Department of Geography at the University of Yaounde I, Cameroon. Eng. FORGHAB Patrick MBOMBA, Deputy Director, National Observatory on Climate Change (NOCC).

Production Team (NOCC) Prof. Dr. Eng. AMOUGOU Joseph Armathé, Director, National Observatory on Climate Change (NOCC) and Lecturer in the Department of Geography at the University of Yaounde I, Cameroon. Eng. FORGHAB Patrick MBOMBA, Deputy Director, National Observatory on Climate Change (NOCC). BATHA Romain Armand Soleil, PhD student and Technical staff, NOCC. ZOUH TEM Isabella, M.Sc. in GIS-Environment and Technical staff, NOCC. NDJELA MBEIH Gaston Evarice, M.Sc. in Economics and Environmental Management. MEYONG René Ramsès, M.Sc. in Physical Geography (Climatology/Biogeography). ANYE Victorine Ambo, Administrative staff, NOCC.

ELONG Julien Aymar, M.Sc. in Business and Environmental law.

I. Introduction

This dekadal climate early warning bulletin n°58 is done through the exploitation of spatial data collected from major international centres involved in day-to-day climate science, notably: the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) of the University of Columbia (USA); the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA, USA); AccuWeather (American Weather Forecasting Agency, USA); the African Centre of Meteorological Applications for Development (ACMAD); Spatial data from 1979 to 2018, relating to Ocean Surface Te mperature (OST) in the Atlantic and Pacific, El-Niño/La Nina episode intensities in the Pacific, rainfall and temperature from local stations. To this end, NOCC would like to express its gratitude to all these international Institutions as well as the DMN for the good will demonstrated in sharing the data. This bulletin highlights the historical climatic conditions from 1979 to 2018, as well as the climatic forecasts for all the five Agro ecological zones of Cameroon, for the period from 1st to 10th October 2020. This early warning brief further underscores the risks, threats and potential impacts expected in the different socio-economic development sectors of Cameroon. It also makes an assessment of the forecasts made for the dekad from 21st to 30th September 2020. This dekad from 1st to 10th October 2020 will be characterized by the action of the moisture-bearing monsoon from the South Atlantic Ocean in a south-west-north-easterly direction In Cameroon, this monsoon will continue its action throughout the national territory, particularly in the Sudano-Sahelian zone (Far North and North regions), the Guinean High Savannah zone (Adamawa region), the Forest zone with bimodal rainfall (Centre, South and East regions), the Highlands zone (West and North West regions) and the Mono -modal rainfall forest zone (Littoral and South West regions).

II. FORECAST SUMMARY

II.1. For Temperature The following localities have a high probability of experiencing a large increase in mean maximum temperatures compared to historical averages. They include : - Tibati and Banyo, in the Adamawa region; - Ese ka, Nkoteng, Yoko, Monatele, Akonolinga, Mbandjock, Mbalmayo, Nanga Eboko, Ngoro, Yaounde, Obala and Bafia, in the ; - Lomie, Betare-Oya, Belabo, Batouri, , Ngoyla, Bertoua, Abong-Mbang, Mindourou, in the East region; - , Nyabizan, , and Sangmelima in the ; - , Koutaba, , , Massagam and ; around the mean in , , , Bangangte and Tonga in the ; - Mundemba, Buea, Kumba, Dikome Balue, Muyuka, Ekondo Titi, Mamfe, Eyumojock, Bamusso, Limbe, Tiko, Idenau, Fontem and Ekok in the South West region ; - Melong, , Dizangue, , Bare-Bakem, , , , Manjo, , , Loum and Mbanga in the Littoral region. The following localities have a high probability of registering a decrease in minimum temperatures as compared to the historic mean. They include; - Mora and Mindif in the Far North region; - Poli and Touboroin the North region; - Tignère, Ngaoundere, Meiganga, Mbe, Mbakaou and Tibati in the Adamawa region; - Garoua-Boulai in the East region; - Benakuma in the North West region.

II.2. For Precipitation

A high probability of recording rainfall amounts much higher than historic values recorded for the same period and those recorded in the dekad of 21 -30 September 2020 in the following localities: - Meiganga, Ngaoundere and Banyo in the Adamawa region; - Moloundou, Ngoyla, Yokadouma and Lomie in the East region.

NB1 : This dekad (October 1-10, 2020) will be marked by heavy rainfall at Mundemba, Nguti, Mamfe and Eyumojock

(Southwest Region), Bali, Santa, Benakuma, Ndop, Batibo, Wum, Ndu, Nkambe, Nkun, Bamenda and Fundong (Northwest Region), Bazou, Dschang, Batie, Bana, Bangangte and (Western Region), Melong and Loum (Coastal Region), with a high and permanent risk of registering cases of flooding in the flood plains and landslides on the hillsides in some of the above-mentioned localities.

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III. Climate forecasts for the five agro-ecological zones for the period from 1st to 10th October 2020

1) For precipitation NB2: The dekad (October 1-10, 2020): will be marked by a significant decrease in rainfall amounts in the Sudano-Sahelian zone, During this period we expect: particularly in the North region. a) In the Sudano-Sahelian zone A high probability of recording; - rainfall amounts around the average recorded in the dekad from 21 st to 30th September 2020 in Kousseri, Mora, Waza, Bogo, Maga, Mindif and Kaele; below the average in Yagoua and Maroua in the Far North region; - rainfall amounts around the average recorded in the dekad from 21 st to 30th September 2020 in Touboro, Dembo and Guider; below the average at Rey-Bouba, Lagdo, Pitoa, Garoua, Tchollire and Poli in the North region.

(a) (b b) In the High guinean savannah zone A high probability of recording precipitation quantities above ) those recorded in the dekad from 21st to 30th September 2020 in Meiganga, Ngaoundere and Banyo; around the average in Tibati and Tignère; below those registered in the last dekad in Mbakaou in the Adamawa region. c) In the bimodal rainfall forest zone A high probability of recording rainfall quantities; st th - below those recorded in the dekad from 21 to 30 September 2020 in Bafia, Eseka, Monatele, Ngoro, Nkoteng, Mbalmayo, Yaound e and Obala; around the average in Yoko in the Centre region; st th - below the average recorded in the dekad from 21 to 30 September 2020 in Abong-Mbang, Belabo, Bertoua and Betare- Figure 1: Variations in rainfall amounts during the current dekad (b) Oya, above the average in Moloundou, Ngoyla, Yokadouma and compared to that recorded during the period September 11-20, 2020 (a) Lomie; around the average in Batouri, Mindourou and Garoua Source: NOCC, October 2020 Boulai in the East region; st th - around the averages recorded in the dekad from 21 to 30 September 2020 in Akom II;below the average in , NB 3 :

Ebolowa, Zoetele, Djoum, Nyabizan, Ambam, Kribi, Sangmelima This dekad from 1st to 10th October corresponds to: and Campo in the South region. - the extension of the rainy season in the Sudano-sahelian zone (Far North and North regions), the Guinean High Savannah zone d) In the high plateaux zone (Adamaaa region), the High Plateau zone (West and North West A high probability of recording rainfall quantities; regions), the Monomodal Rainfall Forest zone (Littoral and South - in abundant amounts in the North West region, notably in the West regions) with a general reduction in rainfall quantities in the localities of Bali, Santa, Benakuma, Ndop, Batibo, Wum, Ndu, Littoral region with the exception of the localities of Loum and Nkambe, Nkun, Bamenda and Fundong; below the average Melong; st th recorded in the deakd from 21 to 30 September 2020 in Kumbo - the extension of the long rainy season in the Bimodal Rainfall and Nwa ; Forest zone(Centre, South and East regions), however characterised - in abundant amounts in the West region, notably in the localities by a reduction in rainfall amounts in the Centre and South regions of Bazou, Dschang, Batie, Bana, Bangangte and Santchou; rainfall and an increase in these rainfall amounts in the East regions. amounts below those recorded in the dekad from 21st to 30th September 2020 in , Bafoussam, , Foumban, Mbouda, Makam, Foumbot and Tonga. NB 4: e) In the mono-modal rainfall forest zone During this period we note a high risk of registering cases of floods, A high probability of recording rainfall quantities; land/mud slides due to saturation of soils in high risk zones in the -in high abundance in the localities of Mundemba, Nguti, Mamfe Littoral, South West, North West and West regions. and Eyumojock; below the average recorded in the dekad from 21st to 30th September 2020 in the localities of Kumba, Buea, Tiko and Limbe in the South West region; - below the average recorded in the dekad from 21st to 30th September 2020 in Penja, Mbanga, Yabassi, Edea, Douala, , , Dibombari, , Njombe, Manjo, , Dizangue and Mouanko; around those recorded in the last dekad in Melong and Loum in the Littoral region.

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2) For Temperatures a) For Maximum Temperatures -above the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Foumban, Koutaba, Bazou, Based on the historical maximum temperatures averages recorded for this dekad Foumbot, Massagam and Magba; around the average in Mbouda, Dschang, Bafoussam, from 1979 to 2018. notably: 35.63°C in the Far North region; 33.1°C in the North Bangangte, Tonga in the West region; region; 30.4°C in the Adamawa region; 27°C in the Centre region; 27.6°C in the -above the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Mundemba, Buea, Kumba, South region; 27°C in the region East; 24.67°C in the West region; 25°C in the Dikome Balue, Muyuka, Ekondo Titi, Mamfe, Eyumojock, Bamusso, Limbe, Tiko, North West region; 25.75°C in the South West region; and 26°C in the Littoral Idenau, Fontem and Ekok; around the historical average in Nguti in the South West; region; maximum temperatures are expected for the dekad from October 1 to 10, - above the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Melong, Nkondjock, 2020: Dizangue, Douala, Bare-Bakem, Nkongsamba, Dibombari, Penja, Manjo, Yabassi, - around the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Waza, Kaele and Mouanko, Loum and Mbanga; around the historical average in Edea in the Littoral Mindif; below the historicial average in Kousseri, Maga, Yagoua, Bogo, Makari, region. Maroua and Mora in the Far North region; - around the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Poli, Pitoa, Dembo, Garoua, Tchollire, Lagdo, Rey Bouba, Touboro and Guider in the North region;

- above the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Tibati and Banyo; around the historical average in Ngaoundal; below the historical average in Meiganga, Ngaoundere and Tignère in the Adamawa region; - above the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Eseka, Nkoteng, Yoko, Monatele, Akonolinga, Mbandjock, Mbalmayo, Nanga Eboko, Ngoro, Yaounde, Obala and Bafia in the Centre region; - above the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Lomie, Betare-Oya, (a) Belabo, Batouri, Mintom, Ngoyla, Bertoua, Abong-Mbang and Mindourou ; (b) around the historical average in Moloundou; below the historical average in Garoua-Boulai in the East; - above the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Djoum, Nyabizan, Kribi, Ambam and Sangmelima; around the historical average in Campo, and Akom II; below the historical average in Lolodorf in the South region; - around the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Wum, Benakuma, Bali, Santa, Furu Awa, Fungom, Ako, Ndop, Kumbo, Ndu, Munkep, Nwa and

Fundong, in the North West;

Figure 2: Variations in average maximum temperatures for the current dekad (b) compared to those registered for the same period from 1979 to 2018; (a)

(Source: NOCC, October 2020)

4 Based on the difference between the average maximum temperatures recorded in - around the average recorded in the dekad from 21st to 30th September 2020 the dekad from 21st to 30th September 2020 and the average maximum temperatures in Wum, Benakuma, Bali, Kumbo, Munkep, Bamenda, Santa, and Fundong st th forecast for the dekad from 1 to 10 October 2020, there is a high probability of in the North West region; registering mean maximum temperatures: st th st th - around the average recorded in the dekad from 21 to 30 September 2020 - around the average recorded in the dekad from 21 to 30 September 2020 in Tonga, , Malantouen, Koutaba, Magba, Massagam, Foumbot, in Mindif, Waza and Kaele; below the average in Kousseri, Mora, Bogo, Bafoussam, , , Bafang, Bangangte, Dschang, Bazou, Maga, Maroua and Yagoua in the Far North region; Makam, Foumban and Mbouda in the West region. - Around the average recorded in the dekad from 21st to 30th September 2020 in Dembo, Pitoa, Poli, Lagdo, Rey-Bouba, Touboro, Garoua and Tchollire,

in the North region; - around the average recorded in the dekad from 21st to 30th September 2020 in Tignère, Ngaoundere, Meiganga, Banyo, Tibati and Ngaoundal in the Adamawa region; st th - around the average recorded in the dekad from 21 to 30 September 2020 in Bertoua, Mindourou, Yokadouma, Batouri, Ngoyla, Garoua-Boulai, Abong-Mbang, Betare-Oya, Belabo and Lomie; below the average in Moloundou in the East region; (b) - around the average recorded in the dekad from 21st to 30th September 2020 (a) in Mbalmayo, Eseka, Nkoteng, Bafia, Ngoro, Obala, Akonolinga, Nanga Eboko, Yoko, Monatele, Yaounde, Deuk, Mbandjock and Messondo in the Centre region; - above the average recorded in the dekad from 21st to 30th September 2020 in

Ebolowa; around the average in Zoetele, Sangmelima, Ambam, Akom II, Lolodorf, Nyabizan, Kribi, Djoum and Campo; below the average in Lolodorf in the South region; - around the average recorded in the dekad from 21st to 30th September 2020 in Mamfe, Eyumojock, Tiko, Idenau, Buea, Fontem, Muyuka, Nguti, Limbe and Kumba in the South West region; - around the average recorded in the dekad from 21st to 30th September 2020 in Dizangue, Melong, Yabassi, Nkongsamba, Bare-Bakem, Loum, Manjo, Figure 3: Variations in average maximum temperatures for the current dekad (b) Douala, Ngambè, Ndom, Edea, Yingui, , Pouma, Mbanga and compared to the dekad from 21st to 30th September 2020 (a) Mouanko in the Littoral region; Source: NOCC, October 2020

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Alerts for maximum temperatures

During this dekad from 1st to 10th October 2020, particular attention should be paid to localities that have a very high probability of experiencing an increase in average maximum temperatures compared to their historical averages for the same period from 1979 to 2018. These include: - Tibati and Banyo in the Adamawa region; - Eseka, Nkoteng, Yoko, Monatele, Akonolinga, Mbandjock, Mbalmayo, Nanga Eboko, Ngoro, Yaounde, Obala and Bafia in the Centre region;

- Lomie, Betare-Oya, Belabo, Batouri, Mintom, Ngoyla, Bertoua, Abong-Mbang, Mindourou in the East region; - Djoum, Nyabizan, Kribi, Ambam and Sangmelima in the South region.

6 b) For Minimum Temperatures Based on the historical average minimum temperatures registered for the same period -below the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Benakuma; around from 1979 to 2018, that is 23°C in the Far North region; 23°C in the North region; the average in Santa, Wum, Fundong, Nwa, Bali, Kumbo and Bamenda in the 20.67°C in the Adamawa region; 18°C in the Centre region; 19.5°C in the South North West region; region ; 18°C in the East region. 16.33°C in the West region; 16°C in the North West -below the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Nguti; above the region; 20.25°C in the South West region and 18.67°C in the Littoral region. For the historical average in Bamusso, Eyumojock, Idenau, Muyuka, Kumba, Mamfe, dekad from 1st to 10th October we expect minimum temperatures: Fontem and Mundemba; Much higher than the average in Buea, Tiko and Limbe -below the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Mora and Mindif ; in the South West region;

around the average in Maroua, Mokolo, Bogo, Kousseri, Yagoua, Kaele and Waza -above the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Melong, Manjo, in the Far North region; Dizangue, Mbanga, Yabassi, Penja, Nkongsamba, Loum, Douala, Mouanko and -below the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Poli and Touboro; Edea in the Littoral region. around the average in Garoua, Pitoa, Lagdo, Rey Bouba, Tchollire, Dembo and Guider in the North region;

-below the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Tignere, Ngaoundere, Meiganga, Mbe and Mbakaou; around the average in Banyo; above the average in Tibati in the Adamawa region; -above the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Yaounde, Eseka, Monatele, Mbalmayo, Nkoteng, Nanga Eboko, Ayos, Obala and Yoko; Much higher than the average in Ngoro and Bafia in the Centre region; -below the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Garoua-Boulai; around the historical average in Betare-Oya; above the average in Belabo, Bertoua, (a) (b) Abong -Mbang, Mindourou, Lomie, Batouri, Ngoyla, Yokadouma and Moloundou in the East region; -below the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Lolodorf, Ebolowa, Sangmelima, Djoum Campo, Kribi, Ambam, Zoetele, Nyabizan and Akom II in

the South region; -around the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Bagangte, Mbouda, Bafoussam, Dschang, Bafang, Bazou and Bamendjing; above the historical a verage in Tonga, Foumbot, Magba and Foumban in the West region.

Figure 4: Variations in average minimum temperatures for the current dekad (b) compared to historical averages from 1979 to 2018 for the same period.

Source: NOCC, October 2020

7 Based on the difference between the average minimum temperatures recorded in the dekad from 11th to 20th September 2020 and the average minimum - around the average recorded from the 21st to 30th September 2020 in tempe rature s expected for the dekad from 21st to 30th September 2020, there is Fundong, Bamenda, Wum, Santa, Bali, Nwa, Batibo, Kumbo, Benakuma and a high probability during the dekad from 1st to 10th October of registering Widikum in the North West; average minimum temperatures : - around the average recorded from the 21st to 30th September 2020 in Buea, - around the average recorded from the 21st to 30th September 2020 in Mora, Eyumojock Mundemba, Mamfe, Tiko, Kumba Bamusso, Muyuka, Idenau Mokolo, Bogo, Maroua, Kaele, Mindif, Maga, Yagoua, Bogo and Waza in the and Nguti in the South West region.

Far North region; - around the average recorded from the 21st to 30th September 2020 in Garoua, Pitoa, Lagdo, Dembo, Rey Bouba, Guider, Poli and Touboro in the North region ; - around the average recorded from the 21st to 30th September 2020 in Ngaound ere, Tignere, Banyo, Tibati and Mbakaou; above the average in Meiganga in the Adamawa region; - around the average recorded from the 21st to 30th September 2020 in Eseka, Nkoteng, Akonolinga, Obala, Mbandjock, Yoko, Nanga Eboko, Monatele and Mbalmayo; above the average in Yaounde, Ngoro and Bafia in the Centre region ; (a) (a) - below the average recorded from the 21st to 30th September 2020 in Ngoyla;

around the average in Abong-Mbang, Bertoua, Batouri, Yokadouma, Lomie, Belabo, Mindourou, Moloundou, Yokadouma, Betare Oya and Garoua-Boulai in the East region; - around the average recorded from the 21st to 30th September 2020 in Lolodorf, Sangmelima, Kribi, Campo, Zoetele Ambam, Akom II, Nyabizan and Ebolowa; above the average in Djoum in the South region; - around the average recorded from the 21st to 30th September 2020 in Yabassi, Douala, Mouanko, Nkongsamba, Edea, Dizangue, Loum, Pendja, Melong and

Manjo in the Littoral region; - around the average recorded from the 21st to 30th September 2020 in Tonga, Bangangte, Dschang, Bazou, Bafoussam, Mbouda, Bamendjou, Bamendjing, st Bafang, Foumban, Foumbot and Magba; above the average in Makam in the Figure 5: Variation in minimum temperature forecasts for the dekad from 1 to 10th October 2020 (b) Compared to temperature figures registered for the dekad West region; st th from 21 to 30 September 2020 (a) Source : NOCC, October 2020

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Alerts for minimum temperatures

During this dekad from 1st to 10th October 2020, particular attention should be paid to the localities that have a very high probability of experiencing a decrease in average minimum temperatures compared to its historical values for the same period from 1979 to 2018, which could lead to cold nights. They include: - Mora and Mindif in the Far North region;

- Poli and Touboro in the North region; - Tignere, Ngaoundere, Meiganga, Mbe, Mbakaou and Tibati in the Adamawa region; - Garoua-Boulai in the East region; - Benakuma in the North West region.

9 IV. Risks and potential impacts on socio-economic sectors a) ) In the agricultural sector: - floods, landslides and mudslides, following a very significant increase in the quantities A high risk of recording cases of: of rainfall and waterlogging in the North-West, West and South-West and Littoral

• destruction of crops in smallholder farms and plantations, fruit trees, etc. in the flood regions; prone plains of the North West, South West, West, and Littoral regions due to heavy rains - flooding in certain urban areas, particularly in the South-West, Littoral and Centre and floods; regions. • degradation of stocks or reserves of agricultural products, as well as other speculations d) In the livestock sector: matured but not yet harvested (maize, groundnuts, beans, egusi, etc.) due to humidity, in A high risk of recording cases of; the North-West, South-West, West, Centre, South, East, Adamawa and Littoral regions; - numerous cases of epizootic diseases due to a large drop in minimum temperatures in • pre-harvest degradation of certain agricultural products (cocoa, egusi, etc.), due to some localities in the southern part of Cameroun, in the West, North West, South West, waterlogging in the Centre, South, East, Littoral, South West and North West regions; Centre, East and South regions; • rotting of tubers and roots in the soil due to waterlogging in the North-West, South-West, - - degradation of pastures in many localities in the West, North West, South West, Centre, East, South, West and Littoral regions.; regions due to rains, which stimulate the growth of weed; • increased weed proliferation and disease as a result of continuous rainfall in many localities e) In the water and energy sector: in the Centre, East, South, North West, South West, West and Littoral regions; A high risk of recording cases of; • flooding of crops in low lying areas of the North-West, South-West, Centre, South, East, - destruction of electricity production and transmission equipment and materials West and Littoral regions, following intense rains. (poles, transformers etc...) as a result of intense rains accompanied by strong winds, as well as lightning in the North West, South, South West, West and Littoral regions b) In the health sector: • contamination water catchment areas by polluted runoff in the South, North West, A risk of recording cases of: South West, West, Littoral, Centre, South and East regions. - an increase in cholera cases in many localities and some large towns in the Sudano- f) In the Public Works sector: Sahelian and monomodal rainfall forest zones (Douala, Buea, Bakassi, etc.) as well as the A high risk of recording cases of: large agglomerations due to polluted runoff and floods; -degradation of road works in the North West, South West, West, Centre, South, East - an increase in cases of other water-borne diseases (yeast, amoebiasis, dysentery, etc.), and Littoral regions, due to heavy rains coupled with clogged waste disposal channels; following the poor quality of drinking water, in the five agro-ecological zones and particularly -destruction of bridges and culverts in some communities in the Northwest, Southwest, in precarious areas and large agglomerations; West, Littoral, Centre, South and East regions due to intense rains. • an increase in cases of respiratory diseases (flu, cough, bronchitis, colds, asthma attacks, g) In the environment and biodiversity sector: etc.), in most localities in the 05 Agro-ecological Zones especially in the Centre, South and A risk of recording cases of: East regions; • A high risk of landslides and/or mudslides due to heavy rains and waterlogging in the • a proliferation of malaria-carrying mosquitoes in the 05 Agro-ecological Zones; Littoral, North West, West and South West regions; • a proliferation of general pathologies, in adults, people suffering from obesity, • a high risk of flooding in the coastal zone, particularly in the localities of Limbe, Tiko, Buea, hypertension, systemic disorders in children, women in menopause, people suffering from in the South West region; Douala, Yabassi, Edea, Mouanko, Loum, Mbanga, Penja and Melong diabetes, in most localities of the country during this period in the Littoral region, as well as the large agglomerations in the country. c) For the urban planning sector: A high risk of registering cases of: - destruction of edifices and engineering structures, following heavy rains accompanied by violent winds in large conurbations of the North West, South West and West regions due to heavy rains;

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st th VI. Assessment of climate predictions for the decade from 21 to 30 September 2020

High Guinean Monomodal Rainfall Agro Ecological zones Sudano-Sahelian Bimodal Rainfall forest High plateau Savannah Forest Far Regions Far North North Adamawa East Centre Regions North Adamawa East North Minimum temperatures Historic mean from 1979 to 2018(°C) 20.3 20.5 17 20.7 20.1 20.4 18 17.8 21 21.6

Trend forecasts ≈ ≈ Success rates of Forecasts (%) 79 80 77 84 81 82 78 83 82 81.5 Maximum temperatures Historic mean from 1979 to 2018(°C) 34 32.4 29.93 27 27 27 24.75 25 25.8 25.5 Trend forecasts ≈ ≈ ≈ Forecasts success rates (%) 77.4 79.7 80 83.6 82 79 78 81.3 79.9 81 Precipitation Historic mean from 1979 to 2018(mm) 23-53 54-85 86-176 177-179 180-202 203-234 234-241 203-238 233-262 182-204 Trend forecasts ≈ ≈ ≈ ≈ ≈ ≈ ≈ ≈ ≈ ≈

Forecasts success rates (%) 77 91 98 100 100 100 98.6 100 100 100

Around the mean ≈ ; = Reduction; = Increase

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VII. Some recommendations

It is recommended within this period to: a) In the agricultural sector ▪ continue the harvesting of certain crops such as maize, roots and tubers etc. according to the agricultural calendar proposed by NOCC in the southern regions of the country.

b) In the health sector, continue to ▪ raise public awareness to strictly respect basic hygiene and sanitation rules (wash hands regularly, wash food items, filter drinking water before consumption in households, use latrines, avoid the accumulation of household waste in the vicinity of dwellings, the population is strongly encouraged to drink warm water, etc.); ▪ avoid the accumulation of household waste in the vicinity of dwellings; ▪ dress warmly in localities experiencing decreased minimum temperatures during this period; ▪ encourage the population to sleep under mosquito nets; ▪ Strengthen community surveillance at the level of rural health centres to ensure rapid investigation and speedy management of suspicious cases of diseases.

c) In the livestock sector ▪ organize vaccination campaigns for small and big livestock as well as poultry to prevent epizootic diseases in the Far North region and other localities of the country;

For more information contact, www.onacc.cm BP: 35414 House no 1220, Street no 1793, Bastos, Yaounde, Cameroon Tel. + (237) 222-209-504/222-209-500 e-mail: [email protected], [email protected] or [email protected] 12