Dekadal Climate Alerts and Probable Impacts for the Period 1St to 10 October 2020
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REPUBLIQUE DU CAMEROUN REPUBLIC OF CAMEROON Paix-Travail-Patrie Peace-Work-Fatherland ----------- ----------- OBSERVATOIRE NATIONAL SUR NATIONAL OBSERVATORY LES CHANGEMENTS CLIMATIQUES ON CLIMATE CHANGE ----------------- ----------------- DIRECTION GENERALE DIRECTORATE GENERAL ----------------- ----------------- ONACC www.onacc.cm; [email protected]; Tel : (+237) 693 370 504 / 654 392 529 BULLETIN N° 58 Dekadal climate alerts and probable impacts for the period 1st to 10 October 2020 st 1 October 2020 © NOCC October 2020, all rights reserved Supervision Prof. Dr. Eng. AMOUGOU Joseph Armathé, Director, National Observatory on Climate Change (NOCC) and Lecturer in the Department of Geography at the University of Yaounde I, Cameroon. Eng. FORGHAB Patrick MBOMBA, Deputy Director, National Observatory on Climate Change (NOCC). Production Team (NOCC) Prof. Dr. Eng. AMOUGOU Joseph Armathé, Director, National Observatory on Climate Change (NOCC) and Lecturer in the Department of Geography at the University of Yaounde I, Cameroon. Eng. FORGHAB Patrick MBOMBA, Deputy Director, National Observatory on Climate Change (NOCC). BATHA Romain Armand Soleil, PhD student and Technical staff, NOCC. ZOUH TEM Isabella, M.Sc. in GIS-Environment and Technical staff, NOCC. NDJELA MBEIH Gaston Evarice, M.Sc. in Economics and Environmental Management. MEYONG René Ramsès, M.Sc. in Physical Geography (Climatology/Biogeography). ANYE Victorine Ambo, Administrative staff, NOCC. ELONG Julien Aymar, M.Sc. in Business and Environmental law. I. Introduction This dekadal climate early warning bulletin n°58 is done through the exploitation of spatial data collected from major international centres involved in day-to-day climate science, notably: the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) of the University of Columbia (USA); the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA, USA); AccuWeather (American Weather Forecasting Agency, USA); the African Centre of Meteorological Applications for Development (ACMAD); Spatial data from 1979 to 2018, relating to Ocean Surface Te mperature (OST) in the Atlantic and Pacific, El-Niño/La Nina episode intensities in the Pacific, rainfall and temperature from local stations. To this end, NOCC would like to express its gratitude to all these international Institutions as well as the DMN for the good will demonstrated in sharing the data. This bulletin highlights the historical climatic conditions from 1979 to 2018, as well as the climatic forecasts for all the five Agro ecological zones of Cameroon, for the period from 1st to 10th October 2020. This early warning brief further underscores the risks, threats and potential impacts expected in the different socio-economic development sectors of Cameroon. It also makes an assessment of the forecasts made for the dekad from 21st to 30th September 2020. This dekad from 1st to 10th October 2020 will be characterized by the action of the moisture-bearing monsoon from the South Atlantic Ocean in a south-west-north-easterly direction In Cameroon, this monsoon will continue its action throughout the national territory, particularly in the Sudano-Sahelian zone (Far North and North regions), the Guinean High Savannah zone (Adamawa region), the Forest zone with bimodal rainfall (Centre, South and East regions), the Highlands zone (West and North West regions) and the Mono -modal rainfall forest zone (Littoral and South West regions). II. FORECAST SUMMARY II.1. For Temperature The following localities have a high probability of experiencing a large increase in mean maximum temperatures compared to historical averages. They include : - Tibati and Banyo, in the Adamawa region; - Eseka, Nkoteng, Yoko, Monatele, Akonolinga, Mbandjock, Mbalmayo, Nanga Eboko, Ngoro, Yaounde, Obala and Bafia, in the Centre region; - Lomie, Betare-Oya, Belabo, Batouri, Mintom, Ngoyla, Bertoua, Abong-Mbang, Mindourou, in the East region; - Djoum, Nyabizan, Kribi, Ambam and Sangmelima in the South region; - Foumban, Koutaba, Bazou, Foumbot, Massagam and Magba; around the mean in Mbouda, Dschang, Bafoussam, Bangangte and Tonga in the West region; - Mundemba, Buea, Kumba, Dikome Balue, Muyuka, Ekondo Titi, Mamfe, Eyumojock, Bamusso, Limbe, Tiko, Idenau, Fontem and Ekok in the South West region ; - Melong, Nkondjock, Dizangue, Douala, Bare-Bakem, Nkongsamba, Dibombari, Penja, Manjo, Yabassi, Mouanko, Loum and Mbanga in the Littoral region. The following localities have a high probability of registering a decrease in minimum temperatures as compared to the historic mean. They include; - Mora and Mindif in the Far North region; - Poli and Touboroin the North region; - Tignère, Ngaoundere, Meiganga, Mbe, Mbakaou and Tibati in the Adamawa region; - Garoua-Boulai in the East region; - Benakuma in the North West region. II.2. For Precipitation A high probability of recording rainfall amounts much higher than historic values recorded for the same period and those recorded in the dekad of 21 -30 September 2020 in the following localities: - Meiganga, Ngaoundere and Banyo in the Adamawa region; - Moloundou, Ngoyla, Yokadouma and Lomie in the East region. NB1 : This dekad (October 1-10, 2020) will be marked by heavy rainfall at Mundemba, Nguti, Mamfe and Eyumojock (Southwest Region), Bali, Santa, Benakuma, Ndop, Batibo, Wum, Ndu, Nkambe, Nkun, Bamenda and Fundong (Northwest Region), Bazou, Dschang, Batie, Bana, Bangangte and Santchou (Western Region), Melong and Loum (Coastal Region), with a high and permanent risk of registering cases of flooding in the flood plains and landslides on the hillsides in some of the above-mentioned localities. 2 III. Climate forecasts for the five agro-ecological zones for the period from 1st to 10th October 2020 1) For precipitation NB2: The dekad (October 1-10, 2020): will be marked by a significant decrease in rainfall amounts in the Sudano-Sahelian zone, During this period we expect: particularly in the North region. a) In the Sudano-Sahelian zone A high probability of recording; - rainfall amounts around the average recorded in the dekad from 21 st to 30th September 2020 in Kousseri, Mora, Waza, Bogo, Maga, Mindif and Kaele; below the average in Yagoua and Maroua in the Far North region; - rainfall amounts around the average recorded in the dekad from 21 st to 30th September 2020 in Touboro, Dembo and Guider; below the average at Rey-Bouba, Lagdo, Pitoa, Garoua, Tchollire and Poli in the North region. (a) (b b) In the High guinean savannah zone A high probability of recording precipitation quantities above ) st th those recorded in the dekad from 21 to 30 September 2020 in Meiganga, Ngaoundere and Banyo; around the average in Tibati and Tignère; below those registered in the last dekad in Mbakaou in the Adamawa region. c) In the bimodal rainfall forest zone A high probability of recording rainfall quantities; st th - below those recorded in the dekad from 21 to 30 September 2020 in Bafia, Eseka, Monatele, Ngoro, Nkoteng, Mbalmayo, Yaounde and Obala; around the average in Yoko in the Centre region; - below the average recorded in the dekad from 21st to 30th September 2020 in Abong-Mbang, Belabo, Bertoua and Betare- Figure 1: Variations in rainfall amounts during the current dekad (b) Oya, above the average in Moloundou, Ngoyla, Yokadouma and compared to that recorded during the period September 11-20, 2020 (a) Lomie; around the average in Batouri, Mindourou and Garoua Source: NOCC, October 2020 Boulai in the East region; st th - around the averages recorded in the dekad from 21 to 30 September 2020 in Akom II;below the average in Lolodorf, NB 3 : Ebolowa, Zoetele, Djoum, Nyabizan, Ambam, Kribi, Sangmelima This dekad from 1st to 10th October corresponds to: and Campo in the South region. - the extension of the rainy season in the Sudano-sahelian zone (Far North and North regions), the Guinean High Savannah zone d) In the high plateaux zone (Adamaaa region), the High Plateau zone (West and North West A high probability of recording rainfall quantities; regions), the Monomodal Rainfall Forest zone (Littoral and South - in abundant amounts in the North West region, notably in the West regions) with a general reduction in rainfall quantities in the localities of Bali, Santa, Benakuma, Ndop, Batibo, Wum, Ndu, Littoral region with the exception of the localities of Loum and Nkambe, Nkun, Bamenda and Fundong; below the average Melong; st th recorded in the deakd from 21 to 30 September 2020 in Kumbo - the extension of the long rainy season in the Bimodal Rainfall and Nwa ; Forest zone(Centre, South and East regions), however characterised - in abundant amounts in the West region, notably in the localities by a reduction in rainfall amounts in the Centre and South regions of Bazou, Dschang, Batie, Bana, Bangangte and Santchou; rainfall and an increase in these rainfall amounts in the East regions. amounts below those recorded in the dekad from 21st to 30th September 2020 in Bafang, Bafoussam, Bamendjou, Foumban, Mbouda, Makam, Foumbot and Tonga. NB 4: e) In the mono-modal rainfall forest zone During this period we note a high risk of registering cases of floods, A high probability of recording rainfall quantities; land/mud slides due to saturation of soils in high risk zones in the -in high abundance in the localities of Mundemba, Nguti, Mamfe Littoral, South West, North West and West regions. and Eyumojock; below the average recorded in the dekad from 21st to 30th September 2020 in the localities of Kumba, Buea, Tiko and Limbe in the South West region; - below the average