The Problem 2014 1st suggestion 2nd suggestion 3rd suggestion Comparing balance and fairness 2018 Conclusion World Cup draw: quantifying (un)fairness and (im)balance Julien Guyon Bloomberg L.P., Quantitative Research Columbia University, Department of Mathematics NYU, Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences Workshop on Fairness in Sports Ghent University, April 12, 2018
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[email protected] Julien Guyon Bloomberg L.P., Columbia University, and NYU World Cup draw: quantifying (un)fairness and (im)balance The Problem 2014 1st suggestion 2nd suggestion 3rd suggestion Comparing balance and fairness 2018 Conclusion The FIFA World CupTM: Basic facts The most popular sporting event in the world. 32 senior men's national soccer teams (48 from 2026... another story). 5 continents represented: Europe (UEFA, 13 teams), South America (CONMEBOL, 5 teams), Africa (CAF, 5 teams), North and Central America (CONCACAF, 4 teams), and Asia (AFC, 4 teams) + host country. Group stage: the 32 finalists are divided into 8 groups of 4, labeled A through H. Each group plays a round-robin tournament, and the winner and runner-up advance to the knockout stage: This talk is about how the 8 groups used to be built until 2014, what we suggested back in 2014 to improve fairness and balance, and how FIFA reacted. Julien Guyon Bloomberg L.P., Columbia University, and NYU World Cup draw: quantifying (un)fairness and (im)balance The Problem 2014 1st suggestion 2nd suggestion 3rd suggestion Comparing balance and fairness 2018 Conclusion Principles guiding the draw rules Draw procedure indicates that FIFA is guided by 4 legitimate principles: Randomness: Teams placed into groups randomly.