Uganda Journal of Agricultural Sciences, 2016, 17 (2): 139 - 155 ISSN 1026-0919 (Print) ISSN 2410-6909 (Online) Printed in . All rights reserved © 2016, National Agricultural Research Organisation

Uganda Journal of Agricultural Sciences by National Agricultural Research Organisation is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. Based on a work at www.ajol.info

Household perception of climate change in wetland adjacent areas in Uganda

F. Yikii1, 2, B. Bashaasha3 and N. Turyahabwe4

1Department of Forestry, Biodiversity and Tourism, School of Forestry, Environmental and Geographical Sciences, Makerere University, P. O. Box 7062, , Uganda 2Department of Environmental Management, School of Forestry, Environmental and Geographical Sciences, Makerere University, P. O. Box 7062, Kampala, Uganda 3Department of Agribusiness and Natural Resource Economics, School of Agricultural Sciences, Makerere University, P. O. Box 7062, Kampala, Uganda 4Department of Extension and Innovation Studies, School of Agricultural Sciences, Makerere University, P. O. Box 7062, Kampala, Uganda

Author for correspondence: [email protected], [email protected]

Climate change is a major cause of food insecurity in developing countries, like Uganda where the poor people and small scale farmers have limited options for adaptation. Households adjacent to wetlands often adapt to climate change by depending on them for food security. However, interventions for climate change adaptation in developing countries are often poorly targeted due to insufficient data on climate trends. The objective of this study was to determine household perception of climate change in wetland adjacent areas, to inform climate change and adaptation policy in Uganda. The study was conducted at two sites, Lake Nakivale wetland system in (south-western Uganda) and Lake Kyoga basin wetland systems in district (eastern Uganda). The study employed a cross sectional design, using a semi-structured questionnaire, and surveyed a total of 520 households. Results of the study show that a majority (92%) of the households were aware of climate change. Climate change was perceived by households in form of prolonged dry weather (54%) and hotter and drier seasons (34%). Over 90% of the respondents had noticed climate change in various forms: increased temperature (92%), decreased rainfall (95%), changes in the length of seasons (97%), more frequent droughts (93%), more severe droughts (92%) and more severe floods in Pallisa. Households perceived climate change in the form of increased temperatures and droughts, and generally had a gloomy outlook for the future, insisting that climate change will be more severe than currently experienced. More households in Isingiro district perceived climate change to be more severe in the future than expected (χχχ2 (2) =43.67, P<0.001). Owing to the perception of more frequent and severe droughts and reduced rainfall, households around wetlands will continue to use wetlands for farming and other livelihood needs. Thus, unless

https://dx.doi.org/10.4314/ujas.v17i2.2 140 F. Yikii et al. wetland farmers (a) integrate wetland conservation by employing climate smart practices like minimum tillage, soil and water conservation, and (b) diversify their livelihoods through commercially viable initiatives like , household food security and sustainability of wetlands will be further jeopardized.

Key words: Adaptation, food insecurity, rainfall

Introduction quality and food distribution, thereby causing malnutrition and deterioration of Climate change is currently an important human health. For example, high driver of food insecurity in the world, with temperatures and droughts affect crop its effects more pronounced in sub- yields and lead to food shortages among Saharan Africa than elsewhere (Godfray communities (Godfray et al., 2010; Lobell et al., 2010; Mearns and Norton, 2010; et al., 2011). Floods and storms commonly Godfray and Garnett, 2014). Climate destroy roads, bridges and other transport change significantly contributes to the loss infrastructure, thus cutting off food and degradation of wetlands and its supplies to the markets (Handmer et al., biological diversity, leading to food 2012). Bad weather also affects post- insecurity (MEA, 2005a, 2005b). harvest food processing thus causing post- According to the Intergovernmental Panel harvest food losses in communities where on Climate Change (IPCC) (IPCC, 2007), post-harvest technology is poor. the properties of climate whose variation A study of the contribution of wetlands predominantly results into climate change, to food security in Uganda revealed that are surface variables such as temperature, majority of the households in the wetlands precipitation and wind. Therefore, climate experienced food insecurity due to climate change is generally manifested through change (Turyahabwe et al., 2013).They increase in temperatures (Hansen et al., indicated that food insecurity in Uganda 2012), prolonged droughts and floods, tends to coincide with extreme weather including storms (Kuperman, 2011). events such as prolonged droughts and Inequalities in access to wetland heavy rains; whereby wetlands provide a resources exacerbate the effects of food security safety net for households climate change on food security in the particularly during droughts. This is wetland areas. Studies have, for example because of the ability of wetlands to store shown that failure to integrate access to moisture in the soil for long periods. wetlands resources, especially for the poor Although Turyahabwe et al. (2013) people denies them access to safe drinking suggested that households in the water and adequate sanitation, leading to neighborhoods of wetlands use the food insecurity (Horwitz and Finlayson, wetlands for adaptation to climate change, 2011; Horwitz et al., 2012). To elaborate it is not clear as to how climate change is the effect of climate change across the manifested and perceived by households value chain of food security in wetland in wetland adjacent communities in the areas, Horwitz et al. (2012) observed that country. Moreover, this information is climate change stresses agricultural required because adaptation rather than production, fisheries resources; and leads mitigation is recommended as a priority to food shortage, besides affecting food strategy for addressing climate change Household perception of climate change in wetland adjacent areas 141 effects especially in developing countries investigate the (a) understanding of climate that are already struggling with its change by households in wetland areas in consequences (Mearns and Norton, 2010; Uganda; (b) household perception of Ministry of Water and Environment, climate change in wetland areas in 2012). Uganda; and (c) the household perception Climate change adaptation in the Sub- of the future of climate change in the Saharan Africa (SSA) is, however, wetland areas in Uganda. constrained by low levels of information and awareness on climate change amongst Study area policy-makers. This is because of the This study was carried out in wetlands relatively scant data and information on within the basin of the Lake Kyoga climate change, and the unreliable wetland system that stretch into Pallisa observational data and climate projections district (eastern Uganda) and wetlands in the region (Jones, 2010). Thus, within Lake Nakivale wetland system in information on perception of climate Isingiro district (south-western Uganda) change by farmers and households is (Fig. 1). The wetland systems differ by essential for influencing climate change agro-ecological zones and dominant policy (Deressa et al., 2011). Secondly, farming systems. The L. Kyoga basin interventions to adapt to the effects of wetlands system in Pallisa district is located climate change on food security require in the Kyoga plains agro-ecological zone, an understanding of how climate change where the dominant farming system is is manifested in the wetland areas, mixed annual crop and livestock especially in the local context and with the production (Ebanyat et al., 2010; local people to guide decision making, as Turyahabwe et al., 2013). L. Nakivale resource constrained people may resort wetland system of Isingiro district is to options that actually worsen the located in the south-western farmlands situation (Government of Uganda, 2007). agro-ecological zone, where banana In addition, perception of climate change production and livestock rearing are is already an important tool that households dominant. In addition, the prevalence of use for making decisions and taking actions poverty in the rural populations is less regarding farming in the circumstances of (30%) in Isingiro district where L. climate change (Denboba, 2005; Mertz et Nakivale wetland system is located, than al., 2009; Olorunfemi, 2009; Kisauzi et al., within Pallisa district (40%) (WMD et al., 2012). 2009). Therefore, this study is framed on the Despite their differences, the two following premises: first of all, households wetland sites were selected for the study adapt to climate change by responding to based on their bio-physical and socio- their perception that the climate is economic similarities; for example, they changing (Maddison, 2007); secondly, are both located within the corridor household perceptions of climate change where rainfall pattern is erratic is a source of stimuli for the innovation (Government of Uganda, 2007); they are they require in order to cope with food lacustrine (adjacency to open lakes); and insecurity as a consequence of climate the perceived level of food insecurity in change (Ndambiri et al., 2013). The the neighbourhoods of the wetlands is high objectives of the study were thus to (Turyahabwe et al., 2013). Crucially, 142 F. Yikii et al. Figure 1. Map of Lake Kyoga Basin wetlands in Pallisa district and Nakivale Isingiro district. Household perception of climate change in wetland adjacent areas 143 wetlands in the two locations are sampling technique to ensure that each threatened by agricultural production household had an equal chance of being (Mafabi, 2000). While wetlands in the L. selected in the sample (McKinney, 2009). Nakivale wetland system are highly The Ultimate Sampling Unit (USU) for threatened by livestock production, those the study was the household. A household in the Kyoga basin wetland systems are is a suitable sampling unit because it is a predominantly threatened by dominant social and economic unit; the production (Mafabi, 2000). Communities main unit of resource holding, production, in the two study sites also share livelihood distribution and consumption (Alelign et strategies such as fishing, arable farming al., 2011). A household is also an and livestock production. important unit for making social and economic decisions. A household was Data collection selected as the unit of analysis in This study employed a cross sectional conformity with previous studies of research design. It was based on primary perception of climate change (Mertz et data collected from late June to October al., 2009; Deressa et al., 2011). 2014 using a semi-structured Ten households were randomly questionnaire. A two-stage cluster selected from each of the selected villages sampling technique was used to collect in line with Magnani (1997) and data. The Primary Sampling Unit (PSU) McKinney (2009), on the premise that for the study was the village, which is the selection of fewer households from many smallest administrative unit in Uganda. The villages reduces the design effect of a sampling frame consisted of all the villages study. A total of 260 households were within parishes adjacent to the two selected from each wetland system, wetland systems that had some wetland making a total of 520 households from 52 as a component of their land cover. Only villages. The sample size for this study was villages adjacent to wetlands within computed using Cochran’s (1977) sample Isingiro and Pallisa districts were size formula as described by Bartlett et considered for this study. Information on al. (2001). the list of all the villages within parishes In administering the questionnaire, that had wetland cover, and the number respondents were first asked to give the of households in such villages were understanding of climate change in their accessed from the records of each district households. Using a three point scale (1 through district authorities (District = agree, 2 = disagree, 3= do not know), Population Officer, District Natural they were then asked to give their views Resources Officer, District Wetland on statements framed to understand their Officer). For newly created villages perception of climate change in their area where there were no reliable records for over the past 30 years following (Kisauzi the population of households, estimates et al., 2012). Consistent with the scale, were made by the district authorities in three categories of statements were consultation with local council authorities framed, namely (a) a statement on and other local authorities who were whether climate change was generally familiar with the wetland areas. Twenty noticed; (b) statements on whether the six villages were randomly selected using properties of climate whose variation lead the Probability Proportional to Size to climate change (temperature, rainfall 144 F. Yikii et al. and wind) have increased or decreased); Results and (c), statements on whether the effects of climate change are more frequent or Household knowledge of climate more severe. Thirty years is the classical change period set by the World Meteorological Results of the study show that climate Organisation (WMO) for averaging the change was generally understood by variables of weather (temperature, households adjacent to wetlands as precipitation and wind) for the purpose of prolonged dry spell (drought) (53.8%) and defining climate (WMO, 2016; IPCC, occurrence of hotter and drier seasons 2007). Finally, given that household (34%) (Table 1). To a less extent, perception of the future of climate change households also understood climate influences their future adaptation change as unexpectedly heavy rains strategies, respondents were asked for (7.4%), low agricultural yields (1.9), and their perception of the future of climate episodes of strong winds (1.1%). change and the reasons for their views. Household perception of climate Data analysis change Data for this study were analysed using Majority (91%) of the respondents had descriptive statistics. A chi-square test of noticed climate change (Table 2). About association was used to determine the 92% of the households agreed that relationship between household perception temperature had increased in the past of climate change in the wetland adjacent thirty years; and slightly more than half areas (Table 2). A chi-square test of (57%) of the respondents in the L. association was also carried out to Nakivale wetland areas perceived a determine the association between decrease in temperature over the past 30 household perception of the future of years. Only 21% of the households in L. climate change and agro-ecological zone. Kyoga basin wetland areas in Pallisa

Table 1. Household understanding of climate change in wetland communities (N=520)

Understanding of climate change Percentage of responses in households L. Nakivale wetland L. Kyoga Basin Pooled system (Isingiro) wetland system (N=520) (N=260) (Pallisa) (N=260)

Prolonged dry spell (drought) 50.6 57.1 53.8 Hotter and drier seasons 39.3 29.0 34.2 Heavy rains 4.5 10.4 7.4 Low yields (food shortages) 3.4 0.4 1.9 Strong winds 0.4 1.9 1.1 Loss of biodiversity 0.7 1.2 1.0 Loss of pasture 1.1 0.0 0.6

Total number of multiple responses=526 Household perception of climate change in wetland adjacent areas 145 est T ***†††Â ***†Â ***  f, ns ***††† †Â   f 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.892 0.002 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.004 s Exact ’ P-value 2 0.535 9.541 18.976 22.601 12.558 96.633 17.330 : Fisher f 185.620 132.638 101.806 t . Â, ÂÂ, ÂÂÂ: Post hoc test 5 4 4 4 4 1 6 2 5 2 2 1 know 91 92 39 50 11 95 73 14 13 92 65 22 13 93 56 32 12 97 Agree Disagree Don’ χ t . †, ††, †††: Post hoc test statistically significant for category/ 0b 0b 0b 0b 0 0b 0b 8a 7a 4 79a 5 1 10b 4 12b 5 26 1 0 know 85 96 21b 94 96 88a 95 99 Agree Disagree Don’ system (Pallisa) (N=260) t 8a 21a 4a 26 5a 24a 74a know Percentage of households 2b 2b 5 22b 4 1 19a 26a 90a 9 32a 4 39 3 2 96 87 57a 95 55b 87 42b 91 37b 95 Agree Disagree Don’ (Isingiro) (N=260) ception of climate change in the communities adjacent to wetlands (N=520) test. a,b More/fewer households observed than expected 2 χ

L. Nakivale wetland system Kyoga Basin Pooled (N=520) tandardised residual [P<0.05 (-1.96 > Z +1.96), P<0.01(-2.58> +2.58), and P<0.001(-3.29> +3.29)] (Field, 2009). alue: for Pearson able 2. Household per emperature increased emperature decreased (a) Climate change Climate changes noticed (b) Climate change properties T T P-V T Perception of climate change Rainfall decreased statistically significant for category/cell “Don’t know” at P<0.05 (-1.96 > Z +1.96), P<0.01(-2.58> +2.58), and P<0.001 (-3.29> +3.29) respectively Z: S ns: -1.96 < Z +1.96 (Post hoc test not statistically significant). *, **, ***: Post significant for category/cell “Agree” at P<0.05 (- 1.96 > Z +1.96), P<0.01(-2.58> +2.58), and P<0.001(-3.29> +3.29) respectively cell “Disagree” at P<0.05 (-1.96 > Z +1.96), P<0.01(-2.58> +2.58), and P<0.001(-3.29> +3.29) respectively Strong winds more frequent Droughts more severe Strong winds more severe Droughts more frequent Floods more severe (c) Climate change effects Length of seasons changed 146 F. Yikii et al. agreed that temperature had decreased. know that temperature had decreased There were overwhelming agreements (P<0.001). across the study sites about the pattern of Regarding winds, there was a precipitation in the past thirty years; that significant association between wetland is, rainfall had decreased (95%), the length systems (study sites) and household of seasons had changed (97%), droughts perception of the frequency (χ2 (2) were more frequent (93%), and droughts =96.633, P<0.001) and severity (χ2 (2) were more severe (92%) (Table 2). =132.638, P<0.001) of winds. Unlike the There was a significant association households in L. Nakivale wetland system, between wetland systems (study sites) more households in the Kyoga plains and household perception of climate wetland areas agreed that strong winds change (χ2 (2) =18.976, P<0.001) (Table had become more frequent (P<0.001) and 2). Among the households in the L. more severe (P<0.001) (Table 2). In Nakivale wetland system (south-western addition, there was a significant association farmlands in Isingiro district), there were between wetland systems and household fewer respondents who disagreed that perception of the severity of floods (χ2 climate change had taken place than (2) =101.806, P<0.001). While households expected (P<0.05). Similarly, the post-hoc in L. Nakivale wetland system were test showed that the number of households indifferent on the severity of floods in the in L. Nakivale wetland system who did area over the past 30 years, majority (74%) not know whether climate change had of those in Kyoga basin wetland areas in occurred was fewer than expected Pallisa believed that floods had become (P<0.05). more severe over the same period The study showed a significant (P<0.001). On the other hand, fewer association between wetland systems households among those sampled from (study sites) and household perception that Kyoga basin wetland areas did not know (a) temperature increased (χ2 (2)=22.601, about the increased severity of floods P<0.001) and (b) temperature decreased (P<0.001). (χ2 (2)=185.620, P<0.001) (Table 2). There was also a significant association Compared with households in the Kyoga between wetland systems (study sites) basin wetland system (Kyoga plains agro- and household perception that the length ecological zone in Pallisa district), the of seasons had changed. However, the proportion of households in L. Nakivale post hoc test of the association was not wetland system who did not know that significant. Furthermore, the study temperature had increased over the past showed that wetland systems were 30 years was more than expected significantly associated with household (P<0.001) (Table 2). On the other hand, perception of the frequency (χ2 (2) the number of households in L. Nakivale =17.330, P<0.001) and severity (χ2 (2) wetland system who agreed that =12.558, P<0.01) of droughts. Specifically, temperatures had decreased were more more households in L. Nakivale wetland than expected (P<0.001). Unlike areas did not know whether or not droughts households in L. Nakivale wetland system, had become more frequent (P<0.05) or fewer households in Pallisa district did not more severe (P<0.05) (Table 2). Household perception of climate change in wetland adjacent areas 147 Perception of the future of climate who did not know whether climate change change would be more severe in the future Majority (73%) of the households in L. (P<0.001) (Table 3). Nakivale wetland system expect climate change to be more severe; while 44% of Household pessimistic view of the their counterparts in the Kyoga basin future of climate change effects wetland areas in Pallisa district hold the Out of the 304 households (58%) that same view (Table 3). On the other hand, believed climate change will be more about half (47%) of the households in the severe in the future (Table 3), about 48% Kyoga basin wetland areas in Pallisa had no particular reason for believing that district are uncertain about what the future climate change will be more severe in the holds for climate change. Overall, slightly future, 31% of them had attributed their more than half (58%) of the households pessimistic perception of the future of expect climate change to be more severe, climate change to deforestation, and 6% and only 7% of them perceive climate perceive more severe climate change in change to be less severe in the future the future because of the prevailing low (Table 3). A chi-square test of rainfall patterns (Fig. 2). To a less extent, independence showed a significant though, households also mentioned poor association between wetland systems land use practices (4.6%), lack of (study sites) and household perception of afforestation programmes (3.2%), the future of climate change (χ2 (2) =43.67, unexpected floods (2.63%), and P<0.001). There were more households supernatural powers such as the will of in L. Nakivale wetland system who God (1.64%) as reasons for more severe perceived climate change to be more climate change in the future. severe in the future than expected On comparing the reasons for (P<0.001), and there were fewer of them household perception of a more severe

Table 3. Household perception of the future of climate change (N=520)

Perception of the future Percentage of households of climate change L. Nakivale wetland L. Kyoga Basin wetland Pooled (520) system (Isingiro) (N=260) system (Pallisa) (N=260)

More severe 73 (189)a 44 (115) 58 (304)*** Less severe 5 (13) 9 (22) 7 (35) Do not know 22 (58)b 47 (123) 35 (181)+++

Figures in parentheses are number of households; ( χ2 (2)=43.67, P<0.001) *, **, ***: Post hoc test statistically significant for category/cell “More severe” at P<0.05 (-1.96 > Z > +1.96), P<0.01(-2.58> Z > +2.58), and P<0.001(-3.29> Z > +3.29) +, ++, +++: Post hoc test statistically significant for category/cell “Do not know” at P<0.05 (-1.96 > Z > +1.96), P<0.01 (-2.58> Z > +2.58), and P<0.001(-3.29> Z > +3.29) Z: Standardised residual [P<0.05 (-1.96 > Z > +1.96), P<0.01(-2.58> Z > +2.58), and P<0.001 (-3.29> Z > +3.29)] (Field, 2009). P-Value: for Pearson χ2 test. a,b More/fewer households observed than expected 148 F. Yikii et al. Percent

Key 1 = Scientifically plausible Reasons for household perception of more severe 2 = Scientifically implausible climate change in the future (N=304) 3 = Do not know

Figure 2. Reasons for household perception of more severe climate change in the future. Household perception of climate change in wetland adjacent areas 149 climate change in the future with scientific temperatures within the cattle corridor, and climate change literature, the study shows thus fail to properly discern any gradual that deforestation, poor land use practices, increments in temperature for some time. lack of afforestation, and increased Although the recall period for climate human population were scientifically change spans three decades, perception plausible reasons to worry about the of climate change may be influenced by severity of climate change in the future. recent events such as the increased On the other hand, low rainfall, frequency of droughts as reported by the unexpected floods, increased afforestation, Isingiro District Planning Unit (2015). and supernatural powers were Much as most (96%) households in the scientifically wrong and simply L. Kyoga basin wetland areas in Pallisa superstitious in the case of the latter. district perceived increased temperatures, only 21% of them perceived reduction in Discussion temperature. The low elevation of Pallisa district (Nyasimi et al., , 2016) supports Perception of climate change the perception of temperature reduction It is not a surprise that households only by a small proportion of the perceive climate change in terms of longer households in Pallisa district. dry spells and hotter and drier seasons The common perception that strong (Table 1) given that the study was winds had become more frequent and conducted at sites located along the cattle more severe in Pallisa is attributed to corridor, which is prone to dry spells. deforestation and wetland degradation According to the Isingiro District Planning which strips the landscape of its protection Unit (2015), droughts have recently from winds by vegetation. Whereas become more frequent in the district. Most forests reduce the effects of wind by likely, it is for this reason that only fewer serving as windbreaks (Government of households in L. Nakivale wetland areas Uganda, 2007), wetland degradation had either not noticed climate change, or through conversion for rice farming and they did not at all know whether climate deforestation due to clearance of swamp change had occurred in their area. The forests are major environmental findings of the study regarding the trends challenges in Pallisa district (Nalukenge in temperatures (increased or decreased et al., 2009). For instance, by the year temperature) over the past 30 years 2000, 68% of the seasonal wetlands in appear self-contradicting given that more Pallisa district were already converted for households in L. Nakivale wetland areas rice cultivation, and Isingiro was facing did not know that temperatures had serious land degradation due to over- increased, and yet at the same time utilisation (NEMA, 2000). However, being reported decrease in temperatures. Shifts a part of the L. Mburo-Nakivale wetland in temperature from hot days to cool nights system which is a Ramser site, restoration which is characteristic of temperature efforts through re-vegetation of L. variations in semi-arid and arid areas Nakivale catchments especially through (Peterson, 2018), explains such perception tree growing at the boundary of L. given that Isingiro lies in the semi-arid Nakivale and its wetlands have been made cattle corridor. Besides, people may be (NEMA, 2012), although restoration of the accustomed to the relatively high degraded wetlands remains a challenge 150 F. Yikii et al. (Isingiro District Planning Unit, 2015). In is poorer than Isingiro (UBOS, 2012), it is addition, lying next to L. Nakivale is L. thus consistent that households in Pallisa Mburo National Park, a protected area had a clearer perception of climate change that also serves as a wind break. It is than their counterparts in Isingiro. In order therefore important that the local to reduce vulnerability to climate change governments in both Pallisa and Isingiro as a result of poverty, dependence on districts strengthen efforts towards natural resources and subsistence wetland conservation and promote farming, there is a need for households to sustainable land management through re- commercialise agriculture and diversify vegetation of degraded areas adjacent to their livelihoods. wetlands especially through tree growing. This study attributes the perception of Generally, most households in Pallisa increased floods in the Kyoga plains to had a clearer perception of climate change wetland degradation. According to the than those in Isingiro district, given that Government of Uganda (2016), frequent out of the changes in climate properties flash floods have become more severe in and climate change effects under study, many parts of eastern Uganda because only 1% of them did not know whether the massive overland flow of water during rainfall had decreased (Table 2). This is rainy periods is not absorbed by wetlands because households in the wetland due to wetland degradation. Nanduddu adjacent areas of Pallisa district are more (2010) attributed the flashfloods in Pallisa vulnerable to climate change and its district to short intensive rains that increase effects such as strong winds and floods the vulnerability of the area to changes in than their counterparts in Isingiro districts rainfall. Thus, restoration of the degraded owing to the flat topography of their wetlands should be pursued to mitigate the landscape. Accordingly, Nanduddu (2010) severe and destructive effects of floods reported that households in Gogonyo sub- in Pallisa district. county in Pallisa district were susceptible Again, households in the wetland to flooding during rainy periods because adjacent areas in Isingiro district were not of the generally flat terrain of the area. sure of whether droughts had become Furthermore, Nanduddu (2010) attributed more frequent or more severe perhaps household vulnerability to climate change because of the generally semi-arid nature effects to socio-economic factors such as of the area. This is attributed to adoption wealth and household size, although she of water harvesting and conservation did not elaborate on the latter. She argued technologies as a result of public that household adaptive capacity in the programmes to minimize the effects of form of wealth influences their perception water stress in the area (Isingiro District of climate change risks such as dry spells Planning Unit, 2015). Given that food as measured by the exposure or ranking insecurity in this area was attributed to of changes in climate parameters and climate change (Turyahabwe et al., 2013), climate change effects by the households. farmers have already adopted some This suggests that the poor who often adaptation strategies, including the use of have low adaptive capacity (Government wetlands, which at least temporarily of Uganda, 2007) have a clear perception cushions them against drought of climate change due to exposure to (Turyahabwe et al., 2013). climate change effects. Given that Pallisa Household perception of climate change in wetland adjacent areas 151 Perception of climate change in the longer lasting heat waves, the IPCC also future projects more frequent and intense There is a gloomy outlook of the future of extreme precipitation events in this century climate change, especially in Isingiro in many regions (IPCC, 2014). Therefore, district, with a majority of them claiming proper management of wetlands, that climate change will be more severe watersheds and reservoirs is important for in the future. This is attributed to the improving adaptation to climate change recent experiences of increasing (IPCC, 2014). frequency of drought and water shortages Households from both Isingiro and in the district (Isingiro District Planning Pallisa who perceived climate change to Unit, 2015). Indeed, according to be more severe in the future, but had no Nuwagaba and Namateefu (2013), particular reason to explain their Isingiro is one of the districts in western perception, and those who on the basis of Uganda that shoulders the consequences scientific literature hold scientifically of changes in precipitation, water doubtful reasons for their pessimistic view availability, and length of seasons thus of the future of climate change pose real affecting food security in the area. threats to the sustainable use of wetland Reflecting on the Millennium resources. These groups of households Ecosystem Assessment (MEA) report are bound to use or attempt to secure (MEA, 2005a), the fact that wetlands are wetlands for future adaptation to climate being rapidly lost, and that climate change change. The problem, however, is that is bound to worsen the degradation and unlike those with scientifically sound loss of wetlands, and vice versa shades reasons (Fig. 2) for their perception of a more light on the worrying perception of more severe climate change in the future, the future of climate change. Furthermore, they may adapt in ways that actually within the frame of the IPCC (2007), exacerbate the severity of climate change. where climate change is bound to continue, As Maddison (2007) reported, especially due to anthropogenic adaptation to climate change is a two stage interferences with the carbon cycle, it is process; that is, households first perceive argued that climate change could indeed climate change before adapting to it. Thus, become more severe in the future due to this study contends that households who the ongoing wetland degradation. had a sound reason to back their Projection of the future of climate perception of a more severe climate change by the IPCC in its Fifth change are better placed to adopt climate Assessment Report (AR5) is that under change adaptation strategies for improving all assessed greenhouse gas emission their livelihoods. Such strategies may for scenarios, surface temperature will rise example include minimum tillage in over the 21st century (IPCC, 2014). wetland areas and water conservation Relative to the period 1986–2005, the practices. Selection of sites from two agro- global mean surface temperature for the ecological zones where wetlands are period 2016-2035 is expected to rise by a being degraded by agricultural activities range of 0.3°C to 0.7°C for all considered (Mafabi, 2000) is useful for proper scenarios. In addition to more frequent and targeting of interventions. 152 F. Yikii et al. Conclusion References

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