Padini Holdings
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Malaysia Company Guide Padini Holdings Version 17 | Bloomberg: PAD MK | Reuters: PDNI.KL Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report DBS Group Research . Equity 28 May 2020 HOLD (Upgrade from FULLY VALUED) Still not fashionable Last Traded Price ( 27 May 2020): RM2.74 (KLCI : 1,451.73) Price Target 12-mth: RM2.50 (-9% downside) (Prev RM2.80) Reasonably priced. We upgrade our recommendation for Padini Analyst Holdings Bhd (PAD) to HOLD with a lower TP of RM2.50. King Yoong CHEAH +60 32604 3908 [email protected] Although FY20 is undoubtedly a challenging year for the group What’s New given the Covid-19 pandemic concerns, we expect its 3QFY20 earnings dropped 52% y-o-y, mainly due to operations to start picking up from FY21 onwards. The stock reduced revenue during MCO period and reduced has dropped >15% on a YTD basis, which we believe has priced visitations to high traffic areas in the negatives. Furthermore, PAD could benefit from downtrading, as the brand is associated with trendy, good- Cut FY20-22F earnings by 2-54% for adverse impact of quality and value-for-money products. Its net cash (excluding Covid-19 pandemic and weak consumer sentiment lease liabilities) per share of 68 sen as at end March 2020 Net cash per share (excluding lease liabilities) of 68 sen should help the group to withstand the near-term challenges. as at end-March to help weather near-term headwinds Upgrade to HOLD with lower TP of RM2.50 Where we differ. Our FY20/21/22 earnings estimates are below consensus in view of the subdued consumer sentiments which could take longer to recover. We cut our FY20/21/22 earnings estimates for the group by 54%/16%/2%, upon revising our Price Relative same store sales growth (SSSG) assumptions to -29%/32%/5% (1%/0.5%/0.5% growth previously). Our TP is also more conservative relative to consensus. We believe that our 12x PE target is justified, as PAD no longer fits the profile of a growth stock in view of the increasingly competitive operating environment. Forecasts and Valuation Potential catalyst. Weaker-than-expected topline growth due to FY Jun (RMm) 2019A 2020F 2021F 2022F (1) lower demand for its product offerings, and (2) weaker- Revenue 1,783 1,293 1,635 1,764 than-expected rebound in consumer spending. EBITDA 254 150 235 270 Pre-tax Profit 219 95.6 183 222 Valuation: Net Profit 160 70.7 136 164 Post earnings revisions and rolling forward our valuation base Net Pft (Pre Ex.) 160 70.7 136 164 Net Pft Gth (Pre-ex) (%) (10.1) (55.9) 91.8 21.2 to FY21, our TP that is pegged to 12x FY21 EPS, drops to EPS (sen) 24.4 10.8 20.6 25.0 RM2.50. EPS Pre Ex. (sen) 24.4 10.8 20.6 25.0 EPS Gth Pre Ex (%) (10) (56) 92 21 Key Risks to Our View: Diluted EPS (sen) 24.4 10.8 20.6 25.0 Net DPS (sen) 11.5 10.0 11.5 11.5 Stronger-than-expected rebound in consumer spending and BV Per Share (sen) 110 111 120 133 profit margin comes in higher than expected. PE (X) 11.2 25.5 13.3 11.0 PE Pre Ex. (X) 11.2 25.5 13.3 11.0 At A Glance P/Cash Flow (X) 10.5 14.7 12.9 10.2 Issued Capital (m shrs) 658 EV/EBITDA (X) 5.2 12.0 7.4 6.1 Mkt. Cap (RMm/US$m) 1,803 / 415 Net Div Yield (%) 4.2 3.6 4.2 4.2 P/Book Value (X) 2.5 2.5 2.3 2.1 Major Shareholders (%) Net Debt/Equity (X) CASH CASH CASH CASH Yong Pang Chaun Holdings Sdn Bhd 43.7 ROAE (%) 23.3 9.7 17.9 19.7 Skim Amanah Saham Bumiputera 5.0 Earnings Rev (%): (54) (16) (2) iCapital.biz 3.5 Consensus EPS (sen): 19.7 22.4 24.4 Free Float (%) 56 Other Broker Recs: B: 7 S: 3 H: 3 3m Avg. Daily Val (US$m) 1.0 Source of all data on this page: Company, AllianceDBS, Bloomberg GIC Industry : Consumer Discretionary / Retailing Finance L.P ed: CK/ sa: WMT, PY, CS Company Guide Padini Holdings WHAT’S NEW Soft earnings dragged by Covid-19 pandemic Weak quarter due to Covid-19 pandemic. PAD reported financial crisis. The drop below the threshold implies earnings of RM17m for 3QFY20 (-52% y-o-y, -70% q-o-q). increasingly cautious consumer spending, which does not The y-o-y decline in earnings was mainly due to (1) revenue augur well for consumer discretionary companies like PAD. falling by 27% during the quarter compared with the With the on-going uncertainties, we are not surprised if the corresponding period last year, dragged by the CSI drops further in 2QCY20 and takes a long time to implementation of the Movement Control Order (MCO) since recover. 18 March 2020 and reduced visitations to malls prior to that Cut FY20-22 earnings by 2-54%. We have cut our due to concerns over the Covid-19 pandemic, and (2) adverse FY20/21/22 earnings estimates for the group by impact of MFRS16: Leases’ Adoption, which lowered its 54%/16%/2%, upon revising our same store sales growth earnings by RM4m. (SSSG) assumptions to -29%/32%/5% ( 1%/0.5%/0.5% No dividend was declared during the quarter. There is no growth previously) to reflect (1) the loss of sales in 4QFY20 dividend declared during the quarter. YTD, the group has (end June) during the MCO period, and (2) the declared a dividend per share (DPS) of 5 sen. In view of its implementation of social distancing and weakened consumer strong net cash balance of 68 sen/share as at end-March sentiment to impact its FY20/21 earnings. 2020 (excluding lease liabilities created under MFRS 16: We have assumed the group to make about RM21m losses in Leases, which we view as a pure accounting adjustments), we 4QFY20 due to temporary closure during the MCO period forecast that management will still pay a DPS of 10 sen (vs. and subdued sales when recommencing its operations during previous assumption of 11.5 sen) for FY20, which is the the CMCO period. lowest absolute dividend paid since FY14. On a positive front, PAD could benefit from downtrading, as Operations affected by MCO. PAD has temporarily suspended the brand is associated with trendy, good-quality and value- its operations during the 39-day enforcement period of the for-money products. MCO effective from 18 March till 3 May in response to the Covid-19 outbreak. The group has gradually opened its Upgrade to HOLD with lower TP of RM2.50. Post earnings outlets upon the introduction of the Conditional Movement revisions and rolling forward our valuation base to FY21, our Control Order (CMCO), which is a relaxed iteration of the TP that is pegged to 12x FY21 EPS, drops to RM2.50. Our PE MCO, starting from 4 May. target of 12x is close to its historical 5-year mean prior to the PE expansion in July 2017. We believe that our 12x PE target Implementation of social distancing to impact sales per is justified, as PAD no longer fits the profile of a growth stock outlet. We believe that the implementation of social in view of the increasingly competitive operating distancing in the Covid-19 era, such as (1) ensuring a environment. minimum distance between customers, and (2) limiting the number of customers per outlet during peak periods to Notwithstanding our conservative stance on the group’s near- reduce crowding when the group restarts operations during term earnings prospects, we note that the stock has dropped the CMCO period. >15% on a YTD basis, which we believe has priced in the negatives. Its net cash (excluding lease liabilities) per share of Furthermore, fitting and alteration services are not provided 68 sen as at end-March 2020 also should help the group to during this period, which could adversely impact customer’s withstand the near-term challenges. As such, we upgrade our shopping experience. We believe that these measures could recommendation for the stock to HOLD. reduce its sales per outlet. Expect discretionary spending to be subdued. Being a fashion company that focuses on non-essential consumer items, we are cautious that PAD’s topline growth is likely to be impacted by the subdued consumer spending. The Malaysian Institute of Economic Research’s recently released Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI) for 1Q20 recorded a sharp contraction of 31 points q-o-q to a 32-year low of 51.1 in 1Q2020. The 31-point contraction is also the sharpest quarter-on-quarter drop since 2Q2008, during the global Page 2 Company Guide Padini Holdings Quarterly Income Statement (RMm) FY Jun 3Q2019 2Q2020 3Q2020 % chg yoy % chg qoq Revenue 474 495 347 (26.8) (29.9) Cost of Goods Sold (296) (297) (199) (32.8) (32.9) Gross Profit 178 198 148 (16.6) (25.3) Other Oper. (Exp)/Inc (133) (120) (121) (8.7) 1.1 Operating Profit 45.0 78.4 27.0 (40.0) (65.6) Other Non Opg (Exp)/Inc 0.0 0.0 0.0 nm nm Associates & JV Inc 0.0 0.0 0.0 nm nm Net Interest (Exp)/Inc 2.10 (3.2) (2.9) nm 9.4 Exceptional Gain/(Loss) 0.0 0.0 0.0 nm nm Pre-tax Profit 47.1 75.2 24.1 (48.8) (68.0) Tax (12.4) (19.4) (7.5) (39.5) (61.3) Minority Interest 0.0 0.0 0.0 nm nm Net Profit 34.7 55.8 16.6 (52.2) (70.3) Net profit bef Except.