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Craig Worden Craigworden@Pollara.Com 416-921-0090 Ext Media Inquiries: Craig Worden [email protected] 416-921-0090 ext. 2235 strategic insights Methodology From April 8-10, 2019, Pollara Strategic Insights conducted an online survey among a randomly-selected, reliable sample of N=1,005 Albertans. As online surveys are not based on probability samples, a margin of error cannot be applied. A probability sample of this size would carry a margin of error of +3.1%, 19 times out of 20. The dataset is statistically weighted according to the gender and regional proportions of the population as well as an estimate of the age proportions of the electorate, based on the turnout of Albertans across age brackets in previous elections. Greater Greater Rural Rural Rural Regions Calgary Calgary Edmonton Edmonton South Central North 1,005 Unweighted 266 70 261 103 111 105 89 1,005 Weighted 305 66 234 97 89 121 93 Age Gender Demographics 18 – 34 35 – 54 55+ Male Female 1,005 Unweighted 260 341 404 452 549 1,005 Weighted 221 357 427 496 505 Methodology Alberta Regions Rural North Rural Central Athabasca-Barrhead-Westlock Camrose Bonnyville-Cold Lake-St Paul Drumheller-Stettler Central Peace-Notley Lacombe-Ponoka Edmonton-Manning Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche Maskwacis-Wetaskiwin Fort McMurray-Wood Bualo Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills Edmonton- Grande Prairie Red Deer-North Castle Downs Grande Prairie-Wapiti Red Deer-South Lesser Slave Lake Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre Edmonton- Edmonton-North West Decore Peace River Spruce Grove-Stony Plain West Yellowhead Vermilion-Lloydminster-Wainwright Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview Innisfail-Sylvan Lake Edmonton- Rural South Highlands- Edmonton-West Henday Brooks-Medicine Hat Edmonton- Norwood Greater Edmonton Area Glenora Cardston-Siksika St Albert Edmonton- Cypress-Medicine Hat City Centre Drayton Valley-Devon Lethbridge-East Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville Lethbridge-West Edmonton- Leduc-Beaumont Riverview Livingstone-Macleod Edmonton- Morinville-St Albert Strathcona Edmonton-Gold Bar Taber-Warner Edmonton- McClung Sherwood Park Strathcona-Sherwood Park Lac Ste Anne-Parkland Edmonton- Edmonton- Edmonton- Meadows Edmonton- Rutherford Mill Woods Whitemud Greater Calgary Area Rural North Airdrie-Cochrane Rural Central Airdrie-East Edmonton-South West Ban-Kananaskis Rural South Edmonton-Ellerslie Chestermere-Strathmore Edmonton Highwood Greater EdmontonEdmonton-South Area Calgary Greater Calgary Area Methodology Calgary Calgary-Foothills Calgary- North Calgary-North East Riding Composition Calgary-Acadia Calgary- Calgary-McCall Calgary-Hays Calgary- Edgemont Calgary-Beddington North West Calgary-Beddington Calgary-Klein Calgary- Falconbridge Calgary-Bow Calgary-Lougheed Calgary-Varsity Calgary-Klein Calgary-Bualo Calgary-McCall Calgary-Bow Calgary- Cross Calgary-Mountain View Calgary-Cross Calgary-Mountain View Calgary- Calgary-East Calgary-Currie Calgary-North Calgary-Currie Buffalo Calgary-West Calgary-East Calgary-North East Calgary- Elbow Calgary-Edgemont Calgary-North West Calgary- Calgary-Elbow Calgary-Peigan Calgary-Peigan Calgary- Acadia Glenmore Calgary-Falconridge Calgary-Shaw Calgary-Fish Creek Calgary-South East CALGARY Calgary- Calgary-Foothills Calgary-Varsity Fish Creek Calgary-Hays Calgary-Glenmore Calgary-Lougheed Calgary-West Calgary-South East Calgary-Shaw Methodology Edmonton EDMONTON Edmonton-Manning Edmonton- Castle Downs Riding Composition Edmonton- Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview Edmonton-Mill Woods Edmonton-North West Decore Edmonton-Castle Downs Edmonton-North West Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview Edmonton-City Centre Edmonton-Riverview Edmonton- Highlands- Edmonton-Decore Edmonton-Rutherford Edmonton-West Henday Edmonton- Norwood Glenora Edmonton-Ellerslie Edmonton-South Edmonton- City Centre Edmonton-Glenora Edmonton-South West Edmonton-Gold Bar Edmonton-Strathcona Edmonton- Riverview Edmonton- Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood Edmonton-West Henday Strathcona Edmonton-Gold Bar Edmonton- McClung Edmonton-Manning Edmonton-Whitemud Edmonton-McClung Edmonton- Edmonton- Edmonton- Meadows Edmonton-Meadows Edmonton- Rutherford Mill Woods Whitemud Edmonton-South West Edmonton-Ellerslie Edmonton-South Turnout Intent More than three-quarters of NDP (77%) and UCP (79%) voters are absolutely certain that they will vote. Liberals are less sure comparatively, 65% are absolutely certain to vote. Among all other decided party voters seven to eight in ten are absolutely certain they will vote. Absolutely certain that I will vote 71% Very likely to vote 15% Somewhat likely to vote 6% Not very likely to vote 3% Not likely to vote at all 3% Already voted in an Advance Poll 2% Vote Intent Among Decided and Leaning Voters 15% are Undecided (7%), will not vote (3%), or prefer not to say (4%) UCP Jason Kenney 45% NDP Rachel Notley 38% Alberta Party Stephen Mandel 8% Liberal Party David Khan 4% FCP Derek Fildebrandt 2% Alberta Independence David Bjorkman 2% Green Cheryle Chagnon-Greyeyes 1% Other 1% Vote Intent Among Decided and Leaning Voters by Region Greater Greater Rural Rural Rural Calgary Edmonton Calgary Edmonton South Central North 45% 53% 53% 28% 50% 45% 49% 45% 38% 33% 30% 56% 35% 33% 29% 38% 8% 5% 6% 9% 11% 4% 9% 14% 4% 5% 5% 1% 4% 6% 2% 1% 7% 0% 4% 1% 2% 2% 1% 2% 0% 7% 3% 1% 1% 2% 1% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% Other 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% Certainty of Vote Choice by Party Voters NDP (71%) and UCP (72%) voters are very certain of their vote choice - Alberta Party voters are much less so (40%). NDP UCP AB Very certain 66% 7 1% 72% 40% Somewhat certain 30% 26% 26% 56% Not very certain 4% 3% 2% 2% Impressions Positive impression for Notley higher among Millennials (40%) than 35-54 year olds (32%) 35% or 55+ year olds (35%). Converse is true for 34% Kenney, highest positive impression among 55+ year olds (41%) and between 25%-30% among younger age groups. Far more voters are neutral about 19% Mandel (51%) than Notley (26%) and Kenney (23%) Positive Stephen Mandel Rachel Notley Jason Kenney Negative 17% 35% 37% Positive Impression by Party Vote Intent Mean 4.9 35% 87% 6% 19% Rachel Notley 4.6 34% 6% 75% 9% Jason Kenney 5.0 19% 24% 11% 70% Stephen Mandel Who Would Make The Best Premier of Alberta? 36% 36% 19% 9% Jason Rachel Stephen Don’t Know Kenney Notley Mandel Unsure Debate Engagement Higher number of men (73% vs. 64% female) and 55+ year olds (74%, vs. 64%-65% of 18-54 year olds) were engaged in activities related to the Lender’s debate. I watched or listened to some or all of the Debate 37% Engaged I have seen or listened to news about it 35% 69% I have had conversations about the Debate with 24% family, friends, or co-workers None of the above 31% Debate Influence The Leaders Debate had minmal impact, as just 9% indicate they switched parties (5%), left the undecided column (3%), or joined the undecided column (1%) as a consequence of it. The NDP benefited most, as 6% of NDP Voters switched to them after the Debate, from another party (4%) or from being undecided (2%). The UCP gained just 3% from another party (1%) and undecideds (2%). I have not switched my vote, and I am now just as certain or more certain about my choice 76% I have not switched my vote, but I am less certain about my choice 12% I switched my vote from another party to my current choice 5% I was undecided or did not intend to vote before the Debate, and made my current 3% choice mostly because of it I switched my vote from a party to Undecided or Not Voting 1% I was Undecided or Not Voting before the Debate, and I am still Undecided or Not Voting 4% Media Inquiries: Craig Worden [email protected] 416-921-0090 ext. 2235 strategic insights.
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