Offshore Wind 3: New frontiers and paradigms Updates in the American offshore wind market
Sebastian Chivers May 2, 2018 - All-Energy Conference, Glasgow
This document is confidential and is intended solely for the use and information of the client to whom it is addressed.
0 Agenda
1. Federal Policy and Leasing
2. Market Overview
3. Latest Developments in MA, NY, and NJ
The Renewables Consulting Group 1 Developing, financing, constructing offshore wind projects in the United States requires two distinct and decoupled steps
1 Federal-level: Acquire a wind energy area lease from the US Department of Interior’s Bureau of Ocean Energy Management.
2 State-level: Secure an agreement for power purchase and grid connection.
Limit of Exclusive Lead Agency: Outer Continental Shelf US Army Corps of Economic Zone Engineers (ACOE) Lead Agency: Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM)
States lead on supplying Federal Waters offtake to projects Lead Agency: State Waters US Coast2 Guard (USCG) Land
Both steps are essential to deliver a successful offshore wind project in the United States.
Source: RCG analysis
The Renewables Consulting Group 2 BOEM’s OCS Renewable Energy Regulatory Framework and Leasing Process has four key stages
1 2 3 4
Planning and Analysis Leasing Site Assessment Commercial Development
• BOEM publishes “Call for • BOEM determines extent of • Lessee conducts site • Lessee may conduct Information and competitive interest in site characterisation studies. additional site Nominations”. characterisation studies. • If there is competitive • Lessee submits Site • BOEM identifies priority Wind interest, BOEM notifies public Assessment Plan (SAP). • Lessee submits Construction Energy Areas (WEAs) and developers of intent to & Operation Plan (COP). • BOEM carries out offshore – sites that appear lease through Sales Notices. environmental and technical • BOEM carries out suitable for offshore wind. • BOEM holds a lease sale review of SAP; determines environmental and technical • BOEM processes unsolicited (auction) if competitive whether to approve, modify review of COP; determines application for lease. interest determined. or reject SAP. whether to approve, modify or reject SAP. • BOEM may prepare • BOEM negotiates a lease • If approved, Lessee Environmental Assessment (may be combined with plan assesses site (typically with • If approved, Lessee builds for Lease Issuance and Site approval). meteorological mast and / or offshore wind farm. Assessment Activities. buoys.
Lease phase periods Preliminary term 1 year Site Assessment term 5 years Operations term 25 years
Engagement with Intergovernmental Task Force
Source: RCG analysis from BOEM data
The Renewables Consulting Group 3 From Maine to the Carolina’s, offshore wind projects are under development, as well as the West Coast and the Great Lakes
US Offshore Wind Sites, projects and leases Comments
Oregon Maine Massachusetts • Despite the growing WindFloat Pacific (inactive) DeepCWind, 0.02 MW (pilot) Cape Wind, 450 MW (inactive) number of offshore wind Coos Bay unleased area Statoil Hywind, 12 MW (inactive) Deepwater ONE North, 910 MW sites and projects in the Aqua Ventus 1, 12 MW Bay State Wind, 2000 MW Vineyard Wind, 1600 MW US, only a few key Ohio 2 unleased areas locations are positioned to Icebreaker, 22 MW succeed near-term. Rhode Island • Commercial scale, Block Island, 30 MW (operational) Deepwater ONE S. Fork, 90 MW conventional projects are concentrated on the New York Atlantic coast. Statoil NY Empire Wind, 800 MW • Capacities indicated are New Jersey from developers and Fisherman’s, 24 MW (inactive) indicate maximum Ocean Wind, 1800 MW potential from lease areas. US Wind NJ, 1600 MW
Delaware State-level & BOEM leasing by State Garden State, 600 MW (inactive) Skipjack Wind, 120 MW MD Other 32,737 NY 2,148 Maryland 79,350 California US Wind MD N/S, 750 MW Morro Bay unleased area DE MA 96,430 483,952
Virginia RI/MA CVOW / VOWTAP, 12 MW 97,498 Lease Dominion Virginia, 2000 MW acres VA 114,934 North Carolina NJ Hawaii South Carolina Avangrid / Kitty Hawk, 1486 MW NC 344,328 2 unleased areas 4 unleased areas 2 unleased areas 122,405 1000 acres = 4.0 km2
The Renewables Consulting Group 4 Values paid for leases have ranged from $300k to $43m, with a typical 2-3 year timeline from competitive interest to lease award
North Carolina (OCS-A-0508) 2017-03-16 Avangrid Kitty Hawk ($9.1m, 74.07 $/acre)
New York (OCS-A-0512) 2016-12-16 Statoil NY ($42.5m, 535.22 $/acre)
New Jersey (OCS-A-0498 & 0499) 2015-11-09 Ocean Wind ($0.8m, 5.49 $/acre) & US Wind NJ ($1.0m, 5.48 $/acre)
Massachusetts (OCS-A-0500 & 0501) 2015-01-29 Bay State Wind ($0.3m, 2.83 $/acre) & Vineyard Wind ($0.2m, 1.95 $/acre)
Maryland (OCS-A-0489 & 0490) 2014-08-19 US Wind MD ($3.8m, 117.35 $/acre & $4.9m, 103.46 $/acre)
Virginia (OCS-A-0483) 2013-09-04 Dominion Virginia Power NY ($1.6m, 14.18 $/acre)
RI & Massachusetts (OCS-A-0486 & 0487) 2013-07-31 Deepwater Wind (together $3.1m, 31.69 $/acre)
Jan 2011 Jan 2012 Jan 2013 Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016 Jan 2017 Jan 2018
• BOEM has run competitive auctions for blocks of commercial offshore wind energy development on the Atlantic Outer Continental Shelf (OCS). • The results from the auctions (shown above) indicate a typical timeline of 2-3 years from determination that there is competitive interest to closing on the winning bid. • A short period then typically elapses whilst lease negotiations are finalised.
Source: RCG analysis
The Renewables Consulting Group 5 Three States are competing to be the nation’s leader in offshore wind—this should help to drive further offtake and leasing
Lease State Incumbent Governor RPS Auction Offshore Wind Support Scheme Latest Developments Outlook
Charlie Baker (R) Results from the first (>800MW) solicitation 15% renewables by An Act Relative to Energy Diversity was Republican Party delayed by 1-month until May 23. MA 2020, additional 1% signed into Law in 2016 and requires 1 2015 - 2019 Senators introduce new Bill with goal of 5,000 each year utilities to contract 1,600 MW of offshore thereafter. MW of offshore wind power by 2035, and Massachusetts wind capacity by 2030. reducing the time between procurements.
NY PSC established In State of the State address on January In January, The New York State Energy Andrew Cuomo (D) a CES in 2016 10, 2017, Cuomo announced his support Research and Development Authority Democratic Party mandating 50% of for 2.4 GW of offshore wind energy by (NYSERDA) released an Offshore Wind 2 2015 - 2019 electricity to come 2030, and called for procurement of at Master Plan, and proposed four “Areas for Consideration” to BOEM for new leasing. New York from clean energy least 800MW of offshore wind in 2018 by 2030. and 2019 “Call” announced this month by BOEM.
The 2010 Offshore Wind Development Phil Murphy signed an executive order to Phil Murphy (D) 24.39% renewables Act. directed the NJ BPU to establish an increase the offshore wind target to 3.5 GW Democratic Party by 2028, increased OREC program to support at least 1,100 by 2030 and instructed the BPU to issue a 3 2018 - 2022 to 50% by 2030 MW of offshore wind. This Act stalled solicitation for 1,100MW of offshore wind. under new and was not implemented under the Gov. Strategic planning for offshore wind now Governor. New Jersey Chris Christie administration. underway by the BPU.
Executive Order Bill proposed in Feb Offshore Wind (Offtake) Procurement Targets in Key US States signed in 2018 2018 to increase increasing OSW OSW target to 5GW Original Target Revised or Proposed Target MW target to 3.5GW 6,000 5,000
4,000 3,500 2,400 1,600 2,000 1,200 ?? 0 MA NY NJ Source: RCG analysis
The Renewables Consulting Group 6 PSN for two previously unleased areas off MA, and a “call for information and nominations” for four new areas off NY out now
Comments
New York
• Call for Information and Nominations published by BOEM on April 11, 2018.
• Four “Call” areas – Hudson South, Hudson North, Fairways South, and Fairways North.
• Companies interested in commercial wind energy leases within the proposed area need to provide nominations and comments before May 29, 2018 deadline
Massachusetts
• Proposed Sale Notice (PSN) published in the Federal Register on April 11, 2018.
• BOEM has proposed Lease Areas (LAs) that constitute the portions of the Massachusetts WEA that went unsold in 2015.
• All qualifications materials must be received by BOEM before the June 11, 2018 deadline.
Source: RCG analysis
The Renewables Consulting Group 7 The US has huge offshore wind potential, positive market fundamentals, and a healthy pipeline of projects
Comments USA commissioning activity & forecast 2015 - 2030 (cumulative MW) by State
• BOEM has leased areas capable of supporting multiple GWs 12,000 of capacity up-and-down the East coast, with more to follow.
• Several promising demonstration-scale projects should be 10,000 built between now and the start of large-scale deployment
8,000 • Our latest forecast from our GRIP™ database shows the potential for >10GW of offshore wind between now and 2030. MW 6,000 • Strong competition between several key States, that will lead to increased targets, and other States starting their own 4,000 offshore wind programs.
• Political risk (Trump Administration), and supply chain 2,000 challenges (The Jones Act., etc.) exist, but all are surmountable with a growing pipeline of projects to 2030 and 0 beyond. 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Year
NY NJ MA NC MD VA Other
Source: Global Renewables Infrastructure Projects (GRIP™) Database, April 2018
The Renewables Consulting Group 8 Company Information
The Renewables Consulting Group 9 The Renewables Consulting Group
About the firm Serving renewable energy markets worldwide
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The Renewables Consulting Group 12 Contact Information
Sebastian Chivers CEO Mobile +44 7467 959901 [email protected]
Doug Pfeister Managing Director Regional Head, North America Mobile +1 646 431 8810 [email protected]
The Renewables Consulting Group 13