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Malaysia Strategy Strategy Note Malaysia July 8, 2021 Malaysia Malaysia Strategy Highlighted Companies Potential impact from political situation Inari-Amertron Bhd ■ UMNO, a key ally in the ruling coalition, has officially withdrawn support for ADD, TP RM3.90, RM3.12 close the Prime Minister (PM). We expect Inari-Amertron’s earnings ■ This will weaken the PM’s position and lead to concerns of potential changes. growth momentum to continue on the back of its new SiP line capacity ■ We view this as a negative development for the market, domestic-oriented expansion and robust demand for new sectors (banks, construction), and stocks with high foreign shareholding. 5G smartphones. We project a 3-year EPS CAGR of 40% for FY20-23F. UMNO withdrew support for PM Muhyiddin Public Bank Bhd United Malays National Organisation (UMNO), Malaysia’s biggest political party and key ADD, TP RM5.30, RM4.05 close ally in the ruling coalition, has officially withdrawn support for PM Muhyiddin Yassin, Public Bank is our top pick among following its supreme council meeting on Wednesday, and called on him to resign for Malaysian banks as we believe it is the failing to manage the Covid-19 pandemic. The decision to pull support came just hours most defensive against the credit risks after the PM appointed two senior UMNO members, Datuk Seri Ismail Sabri and Datuk arising from the Covid-19 outbreak. Its Seri Hishammuddin, as Deputy Prime Minister and Senior Minister (Security), credit charge-off rate of 33bp in FY20 was among the lowest in the sector. respectively, in what was seen as a bid to ease infighting within the ruling alliance. Malaysia’s Attorney General said the PM and his ministers can continue to exercise their Telekom Malaysia federal executive powers, as there is no clear evidence to show that he no longer has ADD, TP RM7.00, RM5.83 close majority support in parliament. Telekom Malaysia (TM) is our top Malaysia telco pick due to its robust Reason for the withdrawal and key demands from UMNO FY21F/22F/23F core EPS growth UMNO President Ahmad Zahid said in a press statement that the decision to withdraw (+15%/+9%/+21% yoy), driven by higher support for the PM was due to the government’s failure to manage the pandemic Internet and data services revenue, plus its cost containment efforts. Its FY21F effectively, to ensure political and economic stability, and to win the trust of the people. EV/OpFCF is also at 0.9 s.d. below its He called on the PM to resign gracefully and to allow a new prime minister to be 13-year mean and at a 28% discount to appointed for a limited term. The new premier, Zahid added, would only be focused on the Malaysian mobile average. efforts to manage the pandemic and to help those impacted. He also called for elections to be held after herd immunity was achieved. The UMNO supreme council meeting also Insert reaffirmed its stance, as decided at the UMNO 2020 General Assembly, not to support any attempt to nominate Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim (opposition leader) as Prime Minister or any coalition with Pakatan Harapan (PH) or the Democratic Action Party (DAP). UMNO also ratified the decision to postpone the UMNO elections for 18 months. Potential impact of political development on market The decision by UMNO does not come as a surprise as the party had voiced its unhappiness with the PM since Sep 2020 (see Fig. 3). We gathered from political experts that some of the potential scenarios following today’s event are: 1) the PM resigns; 2) the PM requests for parliament to dissolve; 3) the PM carries on, as it cannot be proven that he does not have majority support; 4) the PM being dismissed via a vote of no confidence (should the Speaker of the House accept such a motion); or 5) the king exercises his reserve powers and calls for an interim PM before elections can be held due to current Covid-19 situation. The most likely scenario could be that the PM carries on unless and until it is proven that he does not have majority MP support in parliament. As such, the key dates to watch are when the parliament (suspended since Jan 21) re-convenes on 26 Jul to 2 Aug (lower house) and 3-5 Aug (upper house). We are of the view that that opposition MPs are likely to seek to table a vote of no confidence against the PM in the Analyst(s) upcoming parliament session. Overall, we are negative on this development as it leads to further uncertainties on the future leadership and policy directions of the country. This comes on top of rising Covid-19 cases in the country as mass-testing is conducted in enhanced movement control order (EMCO) areas. Market is likely to weaken or stay sideways due to corporate earnings and political uncertainty risks. Malaysian corporates are likely to report weaker 2Q earnings due to the implementation of MCO and EMCO Ivy NG Lee Fang, CFA (see Fig. 6). Political uncertainties will be negative for banks, construction, property T (60) 3 2261 9073 sectors, as well as stocks with high foreign shareholding (see Fig. 7). Exporters (gloves, E [email protected] technology, plantations) and defensive plays (utilities and telcos) will be less affected. Nagulan RAVI T (60) 3 2261 9080 KLCI could trade up to 3 s.d. below its forward average P/E on these concerns, which E [email protected] would place KLCI levels at 1,463 pts, where the market may bottom. IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS, ARE PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS REPORT. IF THIS REPORT IS DISTRIBUTED IN Powered by the THE UNITED STATES IT IS DISTRIBUTED BY CGS-CIMB SECURITIES (USA), INC. AND IS CONSIDERED THIRD-PARTY AFFILIATED RESEARCH. EFA Platform Malaysia Strategy Note | July 8, 2021 Figure 1: Big-cap to mid-cap picks Share price Target Price Market Cap Core P/E (x) 3-year EPS P/BV (x) Recurring ROE (%) EV/EBITDA (x) Dividend Yield (%) Company Bloomberg Ticker Recom. (local curr) (local curr) (US$ m) CY2021F CY2022F CAGR (%) CY2021F CY2022F CY2021F CY2022F CY2023F CY2021F CY2022F CY2021F CY2022F Astro Malaysia ASTRO MK Add 1.14 1.51 1,421 9.7 8.3 3.2% 5.02 4.41 54.8% 56.7% 53.4% 5.0 4.7 7.7% 9.3% ATA IMS Bhd AIB MK Add 2.42 3.25 696 16.2 13.6 33.2% 3.16 2.75 20.9% 21.7% 21.3% 11.9 9.8 2.2% 2.6% Axis REIT AXRB MK Add 1.92 2.44 664 20.6 18.2 6.4% 1.31 1.31 6.4% 7.2% 8.0% na na 4.8% 5.4% Gamuda GAM MK Add 2.88 4.00 1,731 14.3 12.8 -3.9% 0.84 0.84 5.9% 6.6% na 15.1 13.8 1.7% 4.0% Genting Bhd GENT MK Add 4.78 6.90 4,401 56.5 11.6 -10.1% 0.56 0.55 1.0% 4.8% 4.9% 12.6 7.2 3.1% 4.6% Inari-Amertron Bhd INRI MK Add 3.12 3.90 2,496 28.0 24.8 33.3% 8.27 7.99 29.4% 32.8% na 20.6 18.4 3.4% 3.6% Kossan Rubber Industries KRI MK Add 3.04 4.20 1,855 2.1 6.7 75.1% 1.68 1.44 108.7% 23.2% 11.7% 1.3 3.3 19.3% 5.2% Malayan Banking Bhd MAY MK Add 8.03 9.30 22,451 12.2 11.6 -1.8% 1.05 1.00 8.8% 8.8% 9.0% na na 5.0% 5.3% Malaysia Airports Holdings MAHB MK Add 5.82 6.55 2,309 na na -174.2% 1.45 1.54 -18.4% -4.7% 8.2% na 20.3 0.0% 0.0% Malaysian Pacific Industries MPI MK Add 39.80 42.00 1,893 29.0 25.6 30.9% 4.90 4.27 17.9% 17.8% na 13.3 11.1 0.8% 0.9% MISC Bhd MISC MK Add 6.71 7.95 7,162 13.7 12.3 14.2% 0.88 0.85 6.5% 7.0% 6.5% 9.3 8.4 5.1% 5.1% MY E.G. Services MYEG MK Add 1.62 2.50 1,393 18.5 16.9 21.4% 4.33 3.67 25.8% 23.6% 21.5% 13.9 11.6 1.4% 1.5% Pentamaster Corp Bhd PENT MK Add 4.95 5.85 843 37.0 30.4 9.5% 5.98 5.13 17.6% 18.1% 16.8% 20.3 16.7 0.4% 0.5% Petronas Gas PTG MK Add 15.72 17.70 7,437 16.0 16.0 1.2% 2.36 2.27 15.1% 14.5% 13.5% 8.6 8.4 4.6% 4.6% Public Bank Bhd PBK MK Add 4.05 5.30 18,797 14.3 13.0 3.4% 1.56 1.46 11.4% 11.6% 11.9% na na 3.5% 3.8% Sime Darby Bhd SIME MK Add 2.17 2.80 3,530 12.5 12.6 5.7% 0.94 0.91 7.6% 7.3% na 4.8 4.6 6.0% 5.9% Sime Darby Property Berhad SDPR MK Add 0.60 0.83 976 16.0 16.6 -14.0% 0.44 0.43 3.1% 2.6% 1.6% 25.0 25.8 1.9% 1.8% Telekom Malaysia T MK Add 5.83 7.00 5,260 18.8 16.0 11.0% 2.89 2.70 16.1% 17.5% 19.2% 6.0 5.6 3.2% 3.7% Tenaga Nasional TNB MK Add 9.62 13.40 13,171 10.9 10.8 0.3% 0.94 0.91 8.8% 8.6% 8.5% 6.1 6.0 5.0% 5.1% Yinson Holdings Bhd YNS MK Add 5.03 6.18 1,281 12.9 17.2 45.5% 1.34 1.38 10.9% 7.9% 14.7% 7.9 9.6 1.2% 1.2% Average 18.9 15.5 4.5% 2.50 2.29 17.9% 14.7% 14.4% 11.3 10.9 4.0% 3.7% SOURCES: CGS-CIMB RESEARCH, COMPANY REPORTS Figure 2: Small-cap picks Share price Target Price Market Cap Core P/E (x) 3-year EPS P/BV (x) Recurring ROE (%) EV/EBITDA (x) Dividend Yield (%) Company Bloomberg Ticker Recom.
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