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China's Largest Hotel Operator Currently Undervalued, “Buy” 中国最大的酒店运营商被低估，“买入”

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股 票 研 [Table_Title] Noah Hudson 究 Company Report: Jin Jiang Hotels (02006 HK) (86755) 2397 6684 Equity Research 公司报告： 锦江酒店 (02006 HK) [email protected] 19 September 2017 [Table_Summary] China's Largest Hotel Operator Currently Undervalued, “Buy” 中国最大的酒店运营商被低估，“买入” Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels is the largest hotel company in [Table_Rank] 公 China and the 5th largest hotel company worldwide in terms of number Rating: Buy Initial of rooms. As at 30 June 2017, the Company had 6,398 hotels in operation 司 and another 2,336 hotels under development. 报 评级： 买入 (首次覆盖) We forecast 2017-2019 total revenue of RMB 19.5 billion, RMB 21.1 告 billion and RMB 23.0 billion, representing growth of 14.7%, 8.1% and [Table_Price] 6-18m TP 目标价: HK$3.20 Company Report 8.9%, respectively. Select-service hotels in mainland China is the Company's largest business segment in terms of revenue, and contributed 40.5% of total revenue in 2016. In 2016 the Company acquired Keystone Share price 股价： HK$2.730 Lodging and Vienna Hotels. We forecast 2017-2019 adjusted EBITDA of RMB 3.3 billion, RMB 3.4 Stock performance billion and RMB 3.6 billion, reflecting growth of 8.6%, 3.7% and 5.2%, 股价表现 respectively. For 2017-2019, we forecast net profit of RMB 792 million, RMB [Table_QuotePic25 % change ] 834 million and RMB 886 million, reflecting growth of 4.5%, 5.3% and 6.2%, 20 respectively, and EPS of RMB 0.1424, RMB 0.1499 and RMB 0.1592, 15 representing growth of 4.5%, 5.3% and 6.2%, respectively. 10 证 We initiate coverage with "Buy" investment rating and target price of 5 券 告 HK$3.20. The Company is currently trading at 10.7x 2017 EV/adjusted 0 研 报 EBITDA, which is a 50.3% discount to Hong Kong listed peers and a 21.8% (5) discount to U.S. listed peers. Our target price is equivalent to 11.4x 2017 (10) 究 究 (15) EV/adjusted EBITDA and 19.1x 2017 PER. We also use DCF analysis to 报 (20) 研 cross-check our target price, which is a 20.3% discount to our DCF derived (25) 告 NAV of HK$4.02. Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Aug-17 券 HSI Shanghai Jin J-H Equity Research Report 上海锦江国际酒店集团按照酒店客房数计算，是目前中国最大、世界第五大的酒店行业公 证 司。截至 2017 年 6 月 30 日，公司拥有 6,398 家开业酒店以及 2,336 家在建酒店。 [Table_PriceChange] [Tab Change in Share Price 1 M 3 M 1 Y 我们预期 2017-2019 年总收入为人民币 195 亿、211 亿和 230 亿元，分别增长 14.7%、 股价变动 个月 个月 年 1 3 1 le_I 8.1%和 8.9%。中国大陆有限服务酒店业务是按收入计算该公司最大的业务板块，贡献了 Abs. % 18.2 24.1 7.9 绝对变动 % 消nfo1 公司 2016 年总收入的 40.5%。在 2016 年，公司收购了铂涛酒店和维也纳酒店集团。 Hotels Rel. % to HS Index 14.1 14.2 (12.8) - 相对恒指变动 % 费 我们预期 2017-2019 年经调整 EBITDA 为人民币 33 亿、34 亿和 36 亿元，分别增长 8.6%、 ] Avg. share price(HK$) 2.5 2.4 2.2 行 3.7%和 5.2%。2017-2019 年，我们预期：净利润分别为人民币 7.92 亿、8.34 亿和 8.86 平均股价（港元） 业 亿元，同比增长 4.5%、5.3%和 6.2%；每股收益为 0.1424、0.1499 和 0.1592 元人民币， Source: Bloomberg, Guotai Junan International. - 同比增长 4.5%、5.3%和 6.2%。 酒 店 我们首次覆盖评级为“买入”，目标价 3.20 港元。公司目前股价相当于 10.7 倍 2017 年经 调整 EV/EBITDA，相较于香港和美国上市公司同业估值水平分别有 50.3%和 21.8%的折 Consumer Sector 让。我们的目标价相当于 11.4 倍 2017 年经调整 EV/EBITDA 以及 19.1 倍 2017 年市盈率。 出于交叉检验的目的，我们还运用折现现金流法测算出公司每股净资产价值为 4.02 港元， [Tab 并得出我们的目标价相较此估值有 20.3%的折让。 le_I Y[Table_ear End Turnover Net Profit EPS EPS PER BPS PBR DPS Yield ROE nfo2 年结Profit ] 收入 股东净利 每股净利 每股净利变动 市盈率 每股净资产 市净率 每股股息 股息率 净资产收益率 HK) ] 12/31 (RMB m) (RMB m) (RMB) (△ %) (x) (RMB) (x) (RMB) (%) (%) 2015A 12,197 866 0.156 39.3 14.7 1.670 1.4 0.065 2.8 9.7 锦 2006 2016A 17,013 758 0.136 (12.4) 17.9 1.680 1.4 0.080 3.4 8.1 江 中 2017F 19,523 792 0.142 4.5 16.3 1.786 1.3 0.084 3.6 8.2 酒 外 2018F 21,114 834 0.150 5.3 15.5 1.899 1.2 0.088 3.8 8.1 店 2019F 22,991 886 0.159 6.2 14.6 2.023 1.1 0.094 4.0 8.1 运 [Table_BaseData]Shares in issue (m) 总股数 (m) 5,566.0 Major shareholder 大股东 Jin Jiang International 75.0% 输 Market cap. (HK$ m) 市值 (HK$ m) 15,195.2 Free float (%) 自由流通比率(%) 25.0 Jin (0 Jiang Hotels 3 month average vol. 3 个月平均成交股数(„000) 5,810.6 FY17 Net gearing (%) FY17 净负债/股东资金 (%) 56.8 52 Weeks high/low (HK$) 52 周高/低 2.750 / 2.020 FY17 Est. NAV (HK$) FY17 每股估值（港元） 4.0 Source: the Company, Guotai Junan International. See the last page for disclaimer Page 1 of 24 上 海 锦 江 国 际 (02006 HK) 酒 店 Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Hotels International ShanghaiJiang Jin [Table_PageHeader] Jin Jiang Hotels (02006 HK) TABLE OF CONTENTS ] 1 r a M t h g i R _ e l b a T [ Hotel Sector in China ............................................................................................................................................ 3 Star Rated Hotels in China ................................................................................................................ 3 Non-Star Rated Branded Chain Hotels in China ............................................................................... 5 September 2017 9 Company Business ............................................................................................................................................... 7 1 Company Background ....................................................................................................................... 7 7 Business Segments ...................................................................................................................... 10 Financial Analysis ............................................................................................................................................... 12 Revenue ........................................................................................................................................... 12 Gross Profit ...................................................................................................................................... 18 Adjusted Operating Income ............................................................................................................. 18 ] 2 r a M t h g i R _ e l b a T [ Non-Operating Items ................................................................................................ ........................ 19 Adjusted EBITDA ............................................................................................................................. 20 Effective Tax Rate ............................................................................................................................ 20 Net Profit, EPS, Adjusted Net Profit& Adjusted EPS ....................................................................... 20 Net Gearing ...................................................................................................................................... 21 Dividend ........................................................................................................................................... 21 Valuation ............................................................................................................................................................... 22 ) Financial Statements and Ratios ....................................................................................................................... 23 02006 HK ( 锦江酒店 Jin Jiang Hotels Report Company See the last page for disclaimer Page 2 of 24 [Table_PageHeader] Jin Jiang Hotels (02006 HK) Hotel Sector in China ] 1 r a M t h g i R _ e l b a T [ Star Rated Hotels in China The total number of star-rated hotels in China has been decreasing in recent years, down 5.6% and 7.3% in 2015 and 2016, respectively. As of the end of 2016 (the most recent data available), the total number of star rated hotels in China was September 2017 10,157, down 7.3% YoY. The number of 1-star, 2-star, 3-star and 4-star hotels decreased by 21.7%, 16.9%, 6.6% and 1.3%, 9 respectively. The number of 5-star hotels has been increasing in recent years, although the growth rate slowed to 3.1% in 2015 1 and then to just 0.2% in 2016. Figure-1: Star Hotel Market Share by Number of Hotels Figure-2: Star Hotel Market Share by Revenue 0.7% 0.1% 8.0% 4.5% 2016A 0.8% 19.4% 0.1% 4.9% 21.7% 7.4% 1-star 24.0% 1-star 23.3% 2-star 25.2% 2015A 2-star 21.9% 3-star 3-star 37.5% 36.5% 4-star ] 2 r a M t h g i R _ e l b a T [ 4-star 5-star 5-star 48.2% 33.2% 48.6% 33.9% Source: National Tourism Administration. Source: National Tourism Administration. Note: As at 2016 year end. Table-1: Number of Star Rated Hotels ) (as at year end) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 1-star 151 146 118 92 72 2-star 3,155 2,922 2,683 2,373 1,972 02006 HK ( 3-star 5,545 5,735 5,585 5,286 4,937 4-star 2,201 2,370 2,431 2,398 2,367 5-star 654 722 783 807 809 锦江酒店 Total 11,706 11,895 11,600 10,956 10,157 Source: National Tourism Administration. Table-2: Number of Star Rated Hotels Growth 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Jin Jiang Hotels 1-star -29.4% -3.3% -19.2% -22.0% -21.7% 2-star -12.1% -7.4% -8.2% -11.6% -16.9% 3-star -1.6% 3.4% -2.6% -5.4% -6.6% 4-star 1.3% 7.7% 2.6% -1.4% -1.3% 5-star 7.6% 10.4% 8.4% 3.1% 0.2% Total -4.2% 1.6% -2.5% -5.6% -7.3% Source: National Tourism Administration. Total revenue of star rated hotels (including catering revenue) decreased by 2.3% in 2016 to RMB 205.9 billion. In 2016, revenue for 1-star, 2-star, 3-star and 4-star hotels decreased by 44.9%, 3.7%, 5.1% and 3.0%, respectively. Five star hotels was the only segment with positive revenue growth, although it was very small at just 0.6%. For 1-star and 4-star hotels, the declines in total revenue were greater than the respective declines in number of hotels. Report Company See the last page for disclaimer Page 3 of 24 [Table_PageHeader] Jin Jiang Hotels (02006 HK) Table-3: Star Rated Hotel Revenue 2012 2013 2014 ] 1 r a M 2015t h g i R _ e l 2016b a T [ 1-star 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 2-star 13.6 12.1 10.6 9.6 9.3 3-star 69.1 63.1 54.6 52.1 49.5 4-star 83.0 77.7 73.3 72.0 69.9 September 2017 5-star 77.0 76.1 76.5 76.7 77.1 9 1 Total 243.0 229.3 215.1 210.7 205.9 Source: National Tourism Administration.
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    france’s sectors OF EXCELLENCE HOTEL INDUSTRY - LUXURY HOTELS Market overview France’s tourism industry • World’s leading tourist destination: 79.5 million foreign tourists in 2011 • Ranked third in receipts (US$53.8 billion) after the United States and Spain (1) France’s hotel sector • More than 175,000 salaried employees (2) • Annual sales of €17.4 billion in 2008 (more than 20% of tourist industry sales (3)) • More than 17,000 classified hotels in 2012 with more than 614,600 rooms (4) • An estimated 9,000 unclassified hotels (5) • Large concentration in the Paris region - 73.2% occupancy rate - Classified hotels accounted for more than one-third of overnight stays in France in 2010, far ahead of the Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur (10.8%) and Rhône-Alpes (8.9%) regions (6) • 3.4% increase in overnight stays by French visitors versus 2010 • 2.3% increase in overnight stays by foreign visitors versus 2010 (7) PLaYerS • Three categories: independents, chains and voluntary associations of independents • Once the majority, independents now account for only 48% of hotels • Accor owns a number of chains (Ibis, Mercure, Novotel, etc.) and largely dominates the market with more than 20% of hotel rooms in mainland France • The U.S.-owned Groupe du Louvre, with its brands Campanile, Première Classe and Kyriad, is second, with (8) nearly 9% of hotel rooms in France (1) UNWTO Tourism Highlights (June 2012) (2) Latest data available from INSEE, source: XERFI 2011 (3) XERFI 2010 (4) INSEE, 2012 (5) XERFI, 2011. There is no official classification for unclassified hotels (those not accredited).
  • Commercial Development Site

    Commercial Development Site

    Exit 351 at Commercial Development Site • 25 acre ready to build site available for development • Located at major intersection of Interstate 65 Exit 351 and Hwy 72 • Suitable for Mixed Use development including commercial, retail, hotels, apartments, residential, and Business Park offering office, warehouse and flex space • Easy access to Interstate 65 and Highway 72 • Centrally located to Nashville, Birmingham, and Huntsville • 8 Miles away from Mazda Toyota Plant currently under construction 1 Athens-Limestone Crossing Mixed Use Development Tracts For Sale Project: Athens-Limestone Crossing Location: Athens, Alabama Interstate 65 and Hwy 72, Exit 351 Size: 25 Acres Price: Call for pricing Athens-Limestone Crossing (ALC) offers 25 acres for mixed use development located at the intersection of Interstate 65 (Exit 351) and Highway 72 in Athens, Alabama. This is a well es- tablished interchange with numerous national chain restaurants and hotels including Cracker Bar- rel, Burger King, Comfort Inn, Country Hearth Inn, McDonald’s, Wendy’s, Hampton Inn, Waffle House, Subway, Applebee’s, Best Western, Hardee’s, Super 8 Motel, Krystal, Sleep Inn, Shoney’s, Days Inn, Ruby Tuesday, Holiday Inn Express, Logan’s, Bojangles, Chick-fil-A, Starbucks, IHOP, Dairy Queen, Panera Bread, Aspen Dental and Fairfield Inn Suites. Hwy 72 and I-65 are the most heavily traveled roads between Nashville, TN 90 miles to the north and Birmingham, AL 100 miles to the south. This exit is 15 minutes south of the Tennessee state line and serves as the gateway to doing business throughout the Southeast, attending major college sporting events (Alabama, Auburn, UAB), NASCAR races at the Talladega 500, and traveling to Alabama/Florida beaches less than 6 hours to the south.