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China's Largest Hotel Operator Currently Undervalued, “Buy” 中国最大的酒店运营商被低估，“买入”

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China's Largest Hotel Operator Currently Undervalued, “Buy” 中国最大的酒店运营商被低估，“买入” 股 票 研 [Table_Title] Noah Hudson 究 Company Report: Jin Jiang Hotels (02006 HK) (86755) 2397 6684 Equity Research 公司报告： 锦江酒店 (02006 HK) [email protected] 19 September 2017 [Table_Summary] China's Largest Hotel Operator Currently Undervalued, “Buy” 中国最大的酒店运营商被低估，“买入” Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels is the largest hotel company in [Table_Rank] 公 China and the 5th largest hotel company worldwide in terms of number Rating: Buy Initial of rooms. As at 30 June 2017, the Company had 6,398 hotels in operation 司 and another 2,336 hotels under development. 报 评级： 买入 (首次覆盖) We forecast 2017-2019 total revenue of RMB 19.5 billion, RMB 21.1 告 billion and RMB 23.0 billion, representing growth of 14.7%, 8.1% and [Table_Price] 6-18m TP 目标价: HK$3.20 Company Report 8.9%, respectively. Select-service hotels in mainland China is the Company's largest business segment in terms of revenue, and contributed 40.5% of total revenue in 2016. In 2016 the Company acquired Keystone Share price 股价： HK$2.730 Lodging and Vienna Hotels. We forecast 2017-2019 adjusted EBITDA of RMB 3.3 billion, RMB 3.4 Stock performance billion and RMB 3.6 billion, reflecting growth of 8.6%, 3.7% and 5.2%, 股价表现 respectively. For 2017-2019, we forecast net profit of RMB 792 million, RMB [Table_QuotePic25 % change ] 834 million and RMB 886 million, reflecting growth of 4.5%, 5.3% and 6.2%, 20 respectively, and EPS of RMB 0.1424, RMB 0.1499 and RMB 0.1592, 15 representing growth of 4.5%, 5.3% and 6.2%, respectively. 10 证 We initiate coverage with "Buy" investment rating and target price of 5 券 告 HK$3.20. The Company is currently trading at 10.7x 2017 EV/adjusted 0 研 报 EBITDA, which is a 50.3% discount to Hong Kong listed peers and a 21.8% (5) discount to U.S. listed peers. Our target price is equivalent to 11.4x 2017 (10) 究 究 (15) EV/adjusted EBITDA and 19.1x 2017 PER. We also use DCF analysis to 报 (20) 研 cross-check our target price, which is a 20.3% discount to our DCF derived (25) 告 NAV of HK$4.02. Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Aug-17 券 HSI Shanghai Jin J-H Equity Research Report 上海锦江国际酒店集团按照酒店客房数计算，是目前中国最大、世界第五大的酒店行业公 证 司。截至 2017 年 6 月 30 日，公司拥有 6,398 家开业酒店以及 2,336 家在建酒店。 [Table_PriceChange] [Tab Change in Share Price 1 M 3 M 1 Y 我们预期 2017-2019 年总收入为人民币 195 亿、211 亿和 230 亿元，分别增长 14.7%、 股价变动 个月 个月 年 1 3 1 le_I 8.1%和 8.9%。中国大陆有限服务酒店业务是按收入计算该公司最大的业务板块，贡献了 Abs. % 18.2 24.1 7.9 绝对变动 % 消nfo1 公司 2016 年总收入的 40.5%。在 2016 年，公司收购了铂涛酒店和维也纳酒店集团。 Hotels Rel. % to HS Index 14.1 14.2 (12.8) - 相对恒指变动 % 费 我们预期 2017-2019 年经调整 EBITDA 为人民币 33 亿、34 亿和 36 亿元，分别增长 8.6%、 ] Avg. share price(HK$) 2.5 2.4 2.2 行 3.7%和 5.2%。2017-2019 年，我们预期：净利润分别为人民币 7.92 亿、8.34 亿和 8.86 平均股价（港元） 业 亿元，同比增长 4.5%、5.3%和 6.2%；每股收益为 0.1424、0.1499 和 0.1592 元人民币， Source: Bloomberg, Guotai Junan International. - 同比增长 4.5%、5.3%和 6.2%。 酒 店 我们首次覆盖评级为“买入”，目标价 3.20 港元。公司目前股价相当于 10.7 倍 2017 年经 调整 EV/EBITDA，相较于香港和美国上市公司同业估值水平分别有 50.3%和 21.8%的折 Consumer Sector 让。我们的目标价相当于 11.4 倍 2017 年经调整 EV/EBITDA 以及 19.1 倍 2017 年市盈率。 出于交叉检验的目的，我们还运用折现现金流法测算出公司每股净资产价值为 4.02 港元， [Tab 并得出我们的目标价相较此估值有 20.3%的折让。 le_I Y[Table_ear End Turnover Net Profit EPS EPS PER BPS PBR DPS Yield ROE nfo2 年结Profit ] 收入 股东净利 每股净利 每股净利变动 市盈率 每股净资产 市净率 每股股息 股息率 净资产收益率 HK) ] 12/31 (RMB m) (RMB m) (RMB) (△ %) (x) (RMB) (x) (RMB) (%) (%) 2015A 12,197 866 0.156 39.3 14.7 1.670 1.4 0.065 2.8 9.7 锦 2006 2016A 17,013 758 0.136 (12.4) 17.9 1.680 1.4 0.080 3.4 8.1 江 中 2017F 19,523 792 0.142 4.5 16.3 1.786 1.3 0.084 3.6 8.2 酒 外 2018F 21,114 834 0.150 5.3 15.5 1.899 1.2 0.088 3.8 8.1 店 2019F 22,991 886 0.159 6.2 14.6 2.023 1.1 0.094 4.0 8.1 运 [Table_BaseData]Shares in issue (m) 总股数 (m) 5,566.0 Major shareholder 大股东 Jin Jiang International 75.0% 输 Market cap. (HK$ m) 市值 (HK$ m) 15,195.2 Free float (%) 自由流通比率(%) 25.0 Jin (0 Jiang Hotels 3 month average vol. 3 个月平均成交股数(„000) 5,810.6 FY17 Net gearing (%) FY17 净负债/股东资金 (%) 56.8 52 Weeks high/low (HK$) 52 周高/低 2.750 / 2.020 FY17 Est. NAV (HK$) FY17 每股估值（港元） 4.0 Source: the Company, Guotai Junan International. See the last page for disclaimer Page 1 of 24 上 海 锦 江 国 际 (02006 HK) 酒 店 Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Hotels International ShanghaiJiang Jin [Table_PageHeader] Jin Jiang Hotels (02006 HK) TABLE OF CONTENTS ] 1 r a M t h g i R _ e l b a T [ Hotel Sector in China ............................................................................................................................................ 3 Star Rated Hotels in China ................................................................................................................ 3 Non-Star Rated Branded Chain Hotels in China ............................................................................... 5 September 2017 9 Company Business ............................................................................................................................................... 7 1 Company Background ....................................................................................................................... 7 7 Business Segments ...................................................................................................................... 10 Financial Analysis ............................................................................................................................................... 12 Revenue ........................................................................................................................................... 12 Gross Profit ...................................................................................................................................... 18 Adjusted Operating Income ............................................................................................................. 18 ] 2 r a M t h g i R _ e l b a T [ Non-Operating Items ................................................................................................ ........................ 19 Adjusted EBITDA ............................................................................................................................. 20 Effective Tax Rate ............................................................................................................................ 20 Net Profit, EPS, Adjusted Net Profit& Adjusted EPS ....................................................................... 20 Net Gearing ...................................................................................................................................... 21 Dividend ........................................................................................................................................... 21 Valuation ............................................................................................................................................................... 22 ) Financial Statements and Ratios ....................................................................................................................... 23 02006 HK ( 锦江酒店 Jin Jiang Hotels Report Company See the last page for disclaimer Page 2 of 24 [Table_PageHeader] Jin Jiang Hotels (02006 HK) Hotel Sector in China ] 1 r a M t h g i R _ e l b a T [ Star Rated Hotels in China The total number of star-rated hotels in China has been decreasing in recent years, down 5.6% and 7.3% in 2015 and 2016, respectively. As of the end of 2016 (the most recent data available), the total number of star rated hotels in China was September 2017 10,157, down 7.3% YoY. The number of 1-star, 2-star, 3-star and 4-star hotels decreased by 21.7%, 16.9%, 6.6% and 1.3%, 9 respectively. The number of 5-star hotels has been increasing in recent years, although the growth rate slowed to 3.1% in 2015 1 and then to just 0.2% in 2016. Figure-1: Star Hotel Market Share by Number of Hotels Figure-2: Star Hotel Market Share by Revenue 0.7% 0.1% 8.0% 4.5% 2016A 0.8% 19.4% 0.1% 4.9% 21.7% 7.4% 1-star 24.0% 1-star 23.3% 2-star 25.2% 2015A 2-star 21.9% 3-star 3-star 37.5% 36.5% 4-star ] 2 r a M t h g i R _ e l b a T [ 4-star 5-star 5-star 48.2% 33.2% 48.6% 33.9% Source: National Tourism Administration. Source: National Tourism Administration. Note: As at 2016 year end. Table-1: Number of Star Rated Hotels ) (as at year end) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 1-star 151 146 118 92 72 2-star 3,155 2,922 2,683 2,373 1,972 02006 HK ( 3-star 5,545 5,735 5,585 5,286 4,937 4-star 2,201 2,370 2,431 2,398 2,367 5-star 654 722 783 807 809 锦江酒店 Total 11,706 11,895 11,600 10,956 10,157 Source: National Tourism Administration. Table-2: Number of Star Rated Hotels Growth 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Jin Jiang Hotels 1-star -29.4% -3.3% -19.2% -22.0% -21.7% 2-star -12.1% -7.4% -8.2% -11.6% -16.9% 3-star -1.6% 3.4% -2.6% -5.4% -6.6% 4-star 1.3% 7.7% 2.6% -1.4% -1.3% 5-star 7.6% 10.4% 8.4% 3.1% 0.2% Total -4.2% 1.6% -2.5% -5.6% -7.3% Source: National Tourism Administration. Total revenue of star rated hotels (including catering revenue) decreased by 2.3% in 2016 to RMB 205.9 billion. In 2016, revenue for 1-star, 2-star, 3-star and 4-star hotels decreased by 44.9%, 3.7%, 5.1% and 3.0%, respectively. Five star hotels was the only segment with positive revenue growth, although it was very small at just 0.6%. For 1-star and 4-star hotels, the declines in total revenue were greater than the respective declines in number of hotels. Report Company See the last page for disclaimer Page 3 of 24 [Table_PageHeader] Jin Jiang Hotels (02006 HK) Table-3: Star Rated Hotel Revenue 2012 2013 2014 ] 1 r a M 2015t h g i R _ e l 2016b a T [ 1-star 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 2-star 13.6 12.1 10.6 9.6 9.3 3-star 69.1 63.1 54.6 52.1 49.5 4-star 83.0 77.7 73.3 72.0 69.9 September 2017 5-star 77.0 76.1 76.5 76.7 77.1 9 1 Total 243.0 229.3 215.1 210.7 205.9 Source: National Tourism Administration.
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