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Appropriate Seismic Reliability for Critical Equipment Systems: Recommendations Based on Regional Analysis of Financial and Life Loss

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Appropriate Seismic Reliability for Critical Equipment Systems: Recommendations Based on Regional Analysis of Financial and Life Loss III 1111111111111111111111111111 PB99-157265 MULTIDISCIPLINARY CENTER FOR EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERING RESEARCH ANational Center of Excellence in Advanced Technology Applications SSN 1520-295X Appropriate Seismic Reliability for Critical Equipment Systems: Recommendations Based on Regional Analysis of Financial and Life Loss by K. Porter, C. Scawthorn, C. Taylor and N. Blais EQE International 1111 Broadway, 10th Floor Oakland, California 94607 Technical Report MCEER-98-0016 ~overnber10, 1998 This research was conducted at EQE International and was supported in whole or in part by the National Science Foundation under Grant No. BCS 90-25010 and other sponsors. REPRODUCED BY U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE NATIONAL TECHNICAL INFORMATION SERVICE SPRINGFIELD, VA 22161 NOTICE This report was prepared by EQE International as a result of research sponsored by the Multidisciplinary Center for Earthquake Engineering Research (MCEER) through a grant from the National Science Foundation and other sponsors. Nei­ ther MCEER, associates of MCEER, its sponsors, EQE International, nor any per­ son acting on their behalf: a. makes any warranty, express or implied, with respect to the use of any infor­ mation, apparatus, method, or process disclosed in this report or that such use may not infringe upon privately owned rights; or b. assumes any liabilities of whatsoever kind with respect to the use of, or the damage resulting from the use of, any information, apparatus, method, or process disclosed in this report. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of MCEER, the National Science Foundation, or other sponsors. Appropriate Seismic Reliability for Critical Equipment Systems: Recommendations Based on Regional Analysis of Financial and Life Loss by 2 3 4 K. Porter', C. Scawthorn , C. Taylor and N. Blais Publication Date: November 10, 1998 Submittal Date: July 31, 1998 Technical Report MCEER-98-0016 NCEER Task Numbers 94-6201 and 95-6201 NSF Master Contract Number BCS 90-25010 1 Principal Engineer, EQE International, Oakland, California 2 Vice President, EQE International, Oakland, California 3 President, Natural Hazards Management Inc., Torrance, California 4 Senior Project Engineer, EQE International, Oakland, California MULTIDISCIPLINARY CENTER FOR EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERING RESEARCH University at Buffalo, State University ofNew York Red Jacket Quadrangle, Buffalo, NY 14261 PROTECTED UNDER INTERNATIONAL COPYRIGHT ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. NATIONAL TECHNICAL INFORMATION SERVICE U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE 50272-101 . REPORT DOCUMENTATION 1. Report No. 2. 3. Recipient's Accession No. PAGE MCEER-98-0016 4. Title and Subtitle 5. Report Date Appropriate Seismic Reliability for Critical Equipment Systems: Recommendations Based on Regional Analysis of November 10,1998 Financial and Life Loss 6. 7. Authors 8. Performing Organization Report No. K. Porter, C. Scawthorn, C. Taylor and N. Blais 10. ProjectlTaskIWork Unit No. 94-6201 and 95-6201 9.Performing Organization Name and Address 11. Contract(C lor Grant (G) No. EQE International, 1111 Broadway, 10th Floor, Oakland, California 94607 (C) BCS 90-25010 (G) 12. Sponsoring Organization Name and Address 13. Type of Report &Period Covered Multidiscipllinary Center for Earthquake Engineering Research Technical report State University of New York at Buffalo Red Jacket Quadrangle, Buffalo, NY 14261 14. 15. Supplementary Notes This research was conducted at EQE International and was supported in whole or in part by the National Science Foundation under Grant No. BCS 90- 25010 and other sponsors. 16. Abstract (limit 200 words) This study recommends a minimum seismic reliability level for critical equipment systems located in seismically vulnerable facilities. It describes a methodology to achieve cost-effective risk mitigation and applies that methodology to a test case involving an automatic sprinkler system in a high-risk building. The study builds on previously published works in this area that provide guidelines for identifying equipment systems that are important for either the normal operation of a facility or for life safety protection. By making it possible to calculate quantitative risk scores, the methodology provides a basis both for evaluating the seismic adequacy of equipment systems and for making cost-effective equipment retrofit decisions. The methodology is primarily for use in areas of high seismicity. In addition to this report, an inventory of taxable high-rise buildings in San Francisco (as of January 1997) in spreadsheet format (Excel 97 and Lotus 1-2-3 version 3, leaf "Inventory" or "B", respectively) is located in the Publications section of MCEER's web site (http://mceer.buffalo.edu/pubs.html). 17. Document Analysis a. Descriptors Earthquake engineering. Reliability assessment. Critical equipment. Critical facilities. Nonstructural systems. Life safety equipment. Water sprinklers. High rise buildings. Cost benefit analysis. b. Identifiers/Open-Ended Terms c. COSATI Field/Group 18. Availability Statement 19. Security Class (This Report) 21. No. of Pages Release unlimited. Unclassified 111 20. Security Class (This Page) 22. Price Unclassified (see ANSU39.18) ,..., Preface The Multidisciplinary Center for Earthquake Engineering Research (MCEER) is a national center of excellence in advancedtechnology applications that is dedicatedtothe reduction ofearthquakelosses nationwide. Headquartered at the University at Buffalo, State University ofNew York, the Center was originally established as the National Centerfor Earthquake Engineering Research (NCEER) by the National Science Foundation in 1986. Comprising a consortium of researchers from a range of disciplines and over a dozen academic institutions and research organizations throughout the United States, the Center's mission is to reduce earthquake losses through research andthe application ofadvancedtechnologies that improve engineering, pre-earthquake planning and post-earthquake recovery strategies. Toward this end, the Centercoordinates a nationwide programofmultidisciplinary teamresearch, education and outreach activities. MCEER's research is conducted under the sponsorship oftwo major federal agencies: the National Science Foundation (NSF) and the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), and the State ofNew York. Significant support is derived from the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), other state governments, academic institutions, foreign governments and private industry. The Center's NSF-sponsored research is focused around four major thrusts, as shown in the figure below: • quantifying building and lifeline performance in future earthquake through the estimation of expected losses; • developing cost-effective performance-based rehabilitation technologies for critical facilities; • improving response and recovery through strategic planning and crisis management; • establishing and operating two user networks, one in experimental facilities and computing environments and the other in computational and analytical resources. I. Performance Assessment of the Built Environment using .. Loss Estimation Methodologies ! IV. User Network II. Rehabilitation of Critical Facilities • Facilities Network using • Computational Network Advance Technologies ! III. Response and Recovery using .. Advance Technologies iii This study recommends a minimum seismic reliability levelfor critical equipment systems located in seismically vulnerable facilities. It describes a methodology to achieve cost-effective risk mitigation andapplies that methodology to a test case involving an automatic sprinkler system in a high-rise building. The study builds on previously published works in this area that provide guidelines for identifying equipment systems that are importantfor either the normal operation of afacility orfor life safety protection. By making it possible to calculate quantitative risk scores, the methodology provides a basis both for evaluating the seismic adequacy ofequipment systems and for making cost-effective equipment retrofit decsions. The methodology is primarilyfor use in areas ofhigh seismicity. In addition to this report, an inventory oftaxable high-rise buildings in San Francisco (as ofJanuary 1997) in spreadsheet format (Excel 97 and Lotus 1-2-3 version 3, leaf "Inventory" or "B", respectively) is located in the Publications section ofMCEER's web site (http://mceer.buffalo.edu/ pubs.html). iv ABSTRACT This study recommends minimum seismic reliability levels for critical equipment systems (CES) in critical facilities subject to seismic risk. Seismic reliability refers to the probability that an equipment system will perform its required function after an earthquake. For example, this study recommends that a fire detection and alarm system in a California office building should be expected to survive the 475-year earthquake and remain operational afterwards, with a probability of 99.9%, which is equivalent to a 0.1 % probability of not operating after the 475-year earthquake. Simple tools for identifying CES and evaluating their current reliability are provided in a companion study by Johnson, Sheppard, Quilici, and others (1998), entitled Seismic Reliability Assessment of Critical Facilities: A Handbook. The Handbook provides worksheets and computational tools to evaluate risk operational failure of an existing CES subjected to the design-basis earthquake (DBE). Using these tools, a facility operator evaluates a scalar risk
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