Coal transitions in Australia Preparing for the looming domestic coal phase-out and falling export demand 2018 Authors Frank Jotzo, Salim Mazouz, John Wiseman Coal transition in Australia Preparing for the looming domestic coal phase-out and falling export demand A project funded by the KR Foundation Authors Jotzo F, Mazouz S, Wiseman J. Cite this report as Jotzo F, Mazouz S, Wiseman J.(2018). Coal transition in Australia. Preparing for the looming domestic coal phase-out and falling export demand. Acknowledgments This report is based on several individual research papers that have been published as working papers or are in preparation. These underlying papers include research by Stephanie Campbell, Paul Burke, Rohan Best and Lars Coenen, in addition to the authors of this report. Support by the Coal Transitions project managed by IDDRI and ClimateStrategies, with funding provided by the KR Foundation, is gratefully acknowledged. Frank Jotzo is at the Australian National University, Salim Mazouz at Natural Capital Economics and the Australian National University, John Wiseman at the University of Melbourne. Contact information Oliver Sartor, IDDRI, [email protected] Andrzej Błachowicz, Climate Strategies, [email protected] Frank Jotzo, Crawford School of Public Policy, ANU, [email protected] Salim Mazouz, Crawford School of Public Policy, ANU, [email protected] John Wiseman, University of Melbourne, [email protected] Copyright © 2018 IDDRI and Climate Strategies IDDRI and Climate Strategies encourage reproduction and communication of their copyrighted materials to the public, with proper credit (bibliographical reference and/or corresponding URL), for personal, corporate or public policy research, or educational purposes. However, IDDRI and Climate Strategies copyrighted materials are not for commercial use or dissemination (print or electronic). Unless expressly stated otherwise, the findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in the materials are those of the various authors and are not necessarily those of IDDRI’s board or Climate Strategies Board/Secretariat. Publishers: IDDRI and Climate Strategies Editors: Pierre Barthélemy, Andrzej Błachowicz, Oliver Sartor Graphic design: Alain Chevallier, Ivan Pharabod Coal transition in Australia Preparing for the looming domestic coal phase-out and falling export demand Executive Summary 4 1. Introduction 5 2. Coal in the National Context 6 2.1. Role of coal in the national energy system 6 2.2. Role of coal in the national/sub-national economy 8 2.3. Policy aspects of the transition 8 3. National coal transition scenarios 11 3.1. Outlook for Australia’s coal fired power generation 11 3.2. Quantitative Coal Scenarios 14 3.3. Policy dimensions of coal transition in Australia’s electricity sector 19 4. Case study: the closure of the Hazelwood power plant, employment impacts and policy responses 21 4.1. The Hazelwood power plant closure 21 4.2. Coal fired power generation in the Latrobe Valley 21 4.3. Privatisation 21 4.4. Carbon pricing 22 4.5. Events leading up to closure 22 4.6. Responses from state and federal governments 23 4.7. Impact on key actors and stakeholders 23 4.8. Explaining the Hazelwood closure and government responses 24 4.9. Lessons from the Hazelwood case study 25 4.10. Do power station closures result in higher local unemployment rates? 26 4.11. Implications for coal transition policy 28 5. Conclusion 29 References 30 COAL TRANSITION IN AUSTRALIA 3 Executive Summary 1Executive Summary Coal plays a large role in Australia’s domestic energy sys- two thirds by 2030, and falling to very low levels during tem, and Australia is a large exporter of coal. Australian the 2030s. It illustrates a stronger 2030 target, in line coal output is over 500 million tonnes per year. Almost with the global objective to ratchet up national contri- all coking coal produced and around 70% of steam coal butions towards the global “two degrees or less” goal. produced is exported. Australia supplies about a fifth Market are expected to be the key in driving the transi- of the global steam coal trade. The remainder is used tion away from coal, as renewable power is developing mostly for electricity generation, where it accounts for a cost advantage relative to the ageing coal fired power around 60% of total power output. plant fleet. Suitable policy can help achieve coal transi- Coal production in Australia is likely to be on a long term tion more reliably and smoothly; conversely there is a risk declining trajectory. Export demand is a function of eco- that policy designed to protect existing industrial struc- nomic, technological and policy developments in other tures could unnecessarily delay the transition and keep countries, all of which point to the likelihood of falling high emitting installations for longer than necessary. coal use over time, especially for steam coal. There is a The report also describes and analyses the closure of the clear prospect of lower coal export demand. It is uncer- Hazelwood power station, Australia’s largest and the tain how international developments will affect Australia latest of ten closures of coal power stations in Austral- steam coal exports, and there is a clear risk of strong ia so far. The relatively sudden closure has highlighted reductions in exports demand. But Australia has very the issues faced by communities and worker. Various large and readily accessible renewable energy resources government funded adjustment programmes have been which promises to be the country’s energy future. put in place, and the episode highlights both successful The picture is clearer for domestic coal use. Australia’s strategies and the limitations to forward-looking tran- coal fired power plant fleet is relatively old with about sition policy in Australia’s present political and institu- half the plants and about two thirds of overall generating tional context. We also report econometric analysis on capacity older than 30 years. At the same time, renew- the effect of coal plant closures on regional unemploy- able power has become competitive, and Australia has ment, finding a relatively small but persistent increase practically unlimited opportunities for renewable energy in unemployment rates on average, after controlling for installations. New coal fired power stations would not be other variables. commercially viable in competition with renewables, and Implications for policy include the following. For exports, existing coal plants are likely to come under increasing Australian governments should refrain from providing economic pressure as the amount of renewable electrici- subsidies or other preferential treatment for coal mines ty generation increases. This is likely to cause accelerated and coal transport infrastructure. Mindful of the grow- closure of coal fired power plants. ing risk that international coal demand may drop off This report presents two scenarios for coal use in Aus- as a result of alternatives becoming cheaper and more tralia. The “moderate” scenario has coal power plant desirable and of climate change policy, policy should be capacity and coal use declining rapidly through the supportive of economic diversification in regions where 2020s and 2030s. Coal use would be less than half the coal is economically important. present level by 2030, and decline by over 90% by 2040. For domestic coal use, mostly in electricity, governments This scenario is based on average plan lifetimes gradu- should strive to put in place stable policy frameworks ally declining as renewables become still cheaper than to help guide and facilitate the transition. This would they already are, and comprising a quickly rising share include putting in place a predictable policy treatment of power generation. This scenario is broadly compatible of carbon dioxide emissions that can link in with a with the 2030 emissions target as per Australia’s NDC possible future economy-wide emissions price signal; to the Paris Agreement. A “faster” scenario has plant mechanisms to encourage predictable and orderly clo- lifetimes diminishing more quickly, with coal use reduced sure of coal fired power stations and socially acceptable by around 30% compared to today by 2025, reduced by transition for local communities; and helping to create 4 COAL TRANSITION IN AUSTRALIA 1. Introduction suitable market and regulatory frameworks to facilitate and reliable energy system in the transition from coal the infrastructure investments necessary for an efficient to renewables. 21. Introduction Australia has large and relatively easily recoverable coal Coal production is a large, regionally concentrated indus- reserves. Domestic electricity generation is dominated try. The coal industry has been prominent and influential by coal, and coal is also used in minerals and metals pro- in the Australian policy discourse and in policymaking. cessing industries. Australia is a major exporter of both Policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions have met coking coal and thermal coal. Exports have continued with resistance from the coal industry, and to date there to grow while domestic consumption remained stable, has been no public policy effort to come to grips with and export volumes are now far larger than domestic the likely long term decline of coal exports. coal use. Meanwhile however, a number of coal fired power sta- The rates of growth of coal production have slowed tions have been closed down and not replaced by new down. Near-term projections for coal exports and have coal using plants. Recent coal plant closures in Australian been revised downwards, and with it the outlook for have been associated with somewhat higher unemploy- production. ment rates following the closure, however this has not Over the medium term, domestic coal use is poised to always been the case. The closures have caused concerns decline as ageing coal fired power stations are replaced about local economic and social impacts. Government with renewable energy installations which now produce funded programs were put in place to support workers electricity at lower costs than new coal plants would.