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Regional Trade Integration and Its Links with Financial Sector Old Dominion University ODU Digital Commons Graduate Program in International Studies Theses & Dissertations Graduate Program in International Studies Summer 2017 New Regionalism in Global Order: Regional Trade Integration and Its Links with Financial Sector Tulu Balkir Old Dominion University, [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalcommons.odu.edu/gpis_etds Part of the Finance Commons, International and Area Studies Commons, and the Regional Economics Commons Recommended Citation Balkir, Tulu. "New Regionalism in Global Order: Regional Trade Integration and Its Links with Financial Sector" (2017). Doctor of Philosophy (PhD), Dissertation, International Studies, Old Dominion University, DOI: 10.25777/9z5r-1s73 https://digitalcommons.odu.edu/gpis_etds/107 This Dissertation is brought to you for free and open access by the Graduate Program in International Studies at ODU Digital Commons. It has been accepted for inclusion in Graduate Program in International Studies Theses & Dissertations by an authorized administrator of ODU Digital Commons. For more information, please contact [email protected]. NEW REGIONALISM IN GLOBAL ORDER: REGIONAL TRADE INTEGRATION AND LINKS WITH FINANCIAL SECTOR by Tulu Balkir B.A. January 1998, Bogazici University Economics Department, Istanbul, Turkey A Dissertation Submitted to the Faculty of Old Dominion University in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY INTERNATIONAL STUDIES OLD DOMINION UNIVERSITY August 2017 Approved by: David C. Earnest (Director) Francis Adams (Member) David Selover (Member) ABSTRACT NEW REGIONALISM IN GLOBAL ORDER: REGIONAL TRADE INTEGRATION AND LINKS WITH FINANCIAL SECTOR Tulu Balkir Old Dominion University, July 2017 Director: Dr. David Earnest This dissertation evaluates the linkages of regional trade integration with regional financial integration and financial development in the EU and the ASEAN. The research utilizes quantitative and qualitative data to analyze development of banking sector and capital markets in these two regions, to review integration initiatives in these major parts of financial sectors and their possible links to regional trade. The results mainly indicate that banking sector and capital markets perform important functions to provide financing to firms and infrastructure projects, to hedge trade and project risks and to support macro-financial stability, all of which can support regional trade. However, there are significant differences in the EU and ASEAN both in trade and financial sectors and being a member in a region with developed institutional structures and large trade networks is the biggest advantage to intra-regional trade. iii Copyright, 2017, by Tulu Balkir, All Rights Reserved. iv ACKNOWLEDGMENTS There are many people who have contributed to the successful completion of this dissertation. I extend many, many thanks to my committee members Dr. Earnest, Dr. Adams and Dr. Selover for their patience, guidance and editing of this manuscript. I also would like to extend my thanks to Dr. Regina Karp for her support during my dissertation phase. v TABLE OF CONTENTS Chapter Page I. INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................... 1 II. LITERATURE REVIEW ................................................................................................ 4 REGION AND REGIONAL INTEGRATION..................................................... 4 IR THEORIES OF REGIONAL INTEGRATION ............................................... 9 INTEGRATION THEORIES IN ECONOMICS ................................................ 23 III. INTRODUCTION TO THE SUBJECT ......................................................................... 43 EVOLUTION OF REGIONAL INTEGRATION .............................................. 43 REGIONALIZATION VERSUS MULTILATERALISM.................................. 47 TRADE INTEGRATION AND FINANCIAL INTEGRATION ON REGIONAL BASIS ........................................................................................... 49 IV. RESEARCH DESIGN, METHODOLOGY AND ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS ........ 58 RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODOLOGY ............................................... 58 ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS .......................................................................... 62 V. TRADE INTEGRATION IN THE EU AND ASEAN ................................................... 71 OVERVIEW OF THE EU AND ASEAN TRADE AGREEMENTS AND FDI .................................................................................................................... 71 EU TRADE INTEGRATION ............................................................................ 79 ASEAN TRADE INTEGRATION .................................................................. 101 VI. BANKING SECTOR DEVELOPMENT AND INTEGRATION IN THE EU AND ASEAN................................................................................................................................... 120 ROLE OF BANKS IN FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT AND REGIONALIZATION ..................................................................................... 121 REGIONAL INTEGRATION OF BANKING SECTORS ............................... 126 REGIONAL INTEGRATION OF THE ASEAN BANKING SECTOR ........... 133 REGIONAL INTEGRATION OF THE EU BANKING SECTOR .................. 148 VII. CAPITAL MARKETS DEVELOPMENT AND INTEGRATION IN THE EU AND ASEAN................................................................................................................................... 167 FINANCIAL INFRASTRUCTURE AND REGIONAL CONNECTIVITY ..... 167 CAPITAL MARKETS DEVELOPMENT AND INTEGRATION ................... 178 THE EU CAPITAL MARKETS ...................................................................... 200 THE ASEAN CAPITAL MARKETS .............................................................. 216 VIII. CONCLUSIONS ......................................................................................................... 234 REFERENCES ....................................................................................................................... 257 vi Page APPENDICES A. FUTURE TRENDS IN CAPITAL MARKETS ........................................... 274 B. GOVERNMENT AND CORPORATE BOND MARKETS ........................ 278 VITA ...................................................................................................................................... 281 vii LIST OF TABLES Table Page 1. Random effects model .................................................................................................. 63 2 . Fixed effects model ...................................................................................................... 65 3. Hausman Test ................................................................................................................ 66 4. OLS Model ................................................................................................................... 67 5. Breusch Pagan Test ...................................................................................................... 68 6. VIF, Uncentered ............................................................................................................ 68 7. Covariance matric of coefficients in random effects model ........................................... 69 8. Correlation matrix of coefficients in random effects model .......................................... 69 9. EU External Trade Network .......................................................................................... 73 10. ASEAN RTA’s ............................................................................................................. 74 11. EU Merchandise and Services Trade Partners, 2014 ...................................................... 80 12. EU Sub regions: Average Imports and Exports with the Region and the World ............ 81 13. Use of financing instruments by EU non-financial corporations .................................. 100 14. ASEAN - Average Imports and Exports with the Region and World .......................... 102 15. Regional Expansion of the ASEAN banks .................................................................. 143 16. Correlation of ASEAN-5 stock markets in 2015 (top) and 2006 (bottom) .................... 226 17. Average correlation of Stock Price Indexes in Southeast Asia ..................................... 226 18. Average Correlation of Weekly Bond Return Indexes before, during and after global financial crisis (GFC) .................................................................................................. 231 viii LIST OF FIGURES Figure Page 1. EU GDP Growth 2005 – 2016 ....................................................................................... 79 2. Extra-EU Goods Trade by Product, 2015....................................................................... 83 3. Extra EU Services Exports, 2013 ................................................................................... 83 4. EU FDI Inward Stock by country, 2013 ......................................................................... 86 5. EU FDI Outward Stock, 2013 ........................................................................................ 87 6. ASEAN Countries: Regional Trade as percentage of GDP, 2015 ................................. 103 7. ASEAN FDI Inflows ................................................................................................... 105 8. Sources of FDI finance
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