Housing Strategy Evidence Base
June 2014 Content
Section Slide
1. Population 3
2. The Economy 10
3. The Housing Market 15
4. Welfare Reforms 23
5. Homelessness 28
6. Older People 33
7. Stock Condition/Empty Homes 42
8. Housing Supply and Demand 49 Population
Security marking 3 High rate of population growth between 2001 and 2011 - Growth highest in West of Borough
Top 5 wards by population 2001 Top 5 wards by population 2011 Childs Hill 17,261 Childs Hill 20,049 Golders Green 16,248 Golders Green 18,818 Underhill 15,721 Hendon 18,472 Hale 15,663 Mill Hill 18,451 Woodhouse 15,533 Burnt Oak 18,257
Source: Census Data Growth to date has been driven by high birth rate and international migration
Barnet Migration Figures 2003/ 2004/ 2005/ 2006/ 2007/ 2008/ 2009/1 2010/1 2011/1 Overal 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 l The number of people International In 6400 8000 6600 8300 7700 7600 7000 8100 6800 66500 per dwelling has Out 2800 3200 3500 4200 3200 3900 3700 3300 2900 30700 increased from 2.4 to Net 3600 4800 3100 4100 4500 3700 3300 4800 3900 35800 2.6 between 2001 and 18030 2011 Internal In 18900 18800 20100 20200 19800 20700 21100 19900 20800 0 19350 Out 21900 21200 21600 22300 22400 20100 21100 21300 21600 0 - Net -3000 -2400 -1500 -2100 -2600 600 0 -1400 -800 13200 Net Change 600 2400 1600 2000 1900 4300 3300 3400 3100 22600 6,000 400000 3.00
350000 5,000 2.50
300000 4,000 2.00 250000
3,000 200000 1.50
2,000 150000 balance 1.00
1,000 Live Births 100000 Total Dwellings
Deaths Population 0.50 50000 0 People per dwelling 0 0.00 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Barnet’s Population will continue to grow across most age groups
460,000
Barnet projected population growth 2011 -2014 Barnet’s population in 2013 362,065 440,000
420,000 Barnet’s projected population 400,000 by 2041 445,422 380,000
360,000 Projected increase in Barnet’s 83,357 340,000 population – equivalent to town the size of Harlow or Stevenage
Barnet projected population growth 2011 -2014 by age group 120,000 People aged over 70 in Barnet 100,000 67,400 by 2041 – double that of 2013 80,000
60,000
40,000 Barnet’s school‐age population 73,000 by 2026 – 20% higher than in 20,000 2013 0
0 to 19 20 to 34 35 to 49 50 to 64 65 to 79 80+
Source: 2013 GLA population projections Ward populations by 2041
Projected population growth in 128% Ward 2011 2021 2031 2041 % increase Colindale, Colindale 17,147 29,197 37,550 39,176 128% & Golders Green 18,872 25,369 35,652 37,285 98% Mill Hill 18,517 24,051 25,056 26,186 41% 98% Golders Green West Hendon 17,448 20,502 22,889 23,940 37% Edgware 16,781 18,274 19,503 20,480 22%
Childs Hill 20,105 21,422 22,986 24,127 20% ……significant housing growth through Finchley Church End 15,774 16,745 17,253 18,080 15% regeneration expected in both areas. Totteridge 15,212 15,952 16,695 17,495 15% West Finchley 16,588 17,157 18,071 18,971 14%
Brunswick Park 16,449 16,857 17,775 18,634 13% Also projected to see relatively large East Barnet 16,191 16,550 17,124 17,895 11% population increases in Hendon 18,518 19,157 19,592 20,544 11% Woodhouse 17,633 18,246 18,727 19,578 11%
High Barnet 15,360 15,761 16,176 16,960 10% Mill Hill Oakleigh 15,866 15,953 16,710 17,511 10% 41% Garden Suburb 15,985 16,054 16,562 17,422 9% & Burnt Oak 18,273 18,274 18,981 19,748 8% West Hendon East Finchley 16,044 16,238 16,645 17,404 8% 37% Underhill 15,974 16,123 16,490 17,207 8%
Hale 17,495 17,315 17,772 18,629 6%
Coppetts 17,305 17,080 17,363 18,148 5%
All 357,537 392,277 425,572 445,420 25%
Source: 2013 GLA population projections Barnet has become more diverse
Change in ethnicity 2001 vs 2011 census 143 languages other than English spoken by pupils in Barnet schools (January school census 2011) 80% 70% Barnet is getting more diverse, driven by both more 60% 50% births among BAME communities and an increase of
40% 2001 migrants. 30% 2011 20% Ethnic groups as percentage of population increasing 10% across all wards 0% White Mixed Asian Black Other 2001 74% 3% 12% 6.00% 5% 2011 64.10% 4.90% 18.40% 7.70% 4.90% White groups as percentage of population falling across all wards.
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0 Brunswick Park Oak Burnt Childs Hill Colindale Coppetts East Barnet East Finchley Edgware Finchley ChurchEnd Suburb Garden Golders Green Hale Hendon High Barnet Mill Hill Oakleigh Totteridge Underhill West Finchley West Hendon Woodhouse
-5.0
-10.0
Percentage change in ward in Percentage change -15.0 population between2011 2001 and -20.0 White Mixed Asian or Asian British Black or Black British Other
Source: Census Data Higher concentration of BAME ethnic groups in social housing
Mixed ethnic Tenure Total White Asian Black Other group Owned outright 82,008 74.5% 2.5% 18.1% 2.2% 2.7% Owned with a mortgage or 124,058 66.5% 4.6% 20.1% 5.0% 3.7% loan or shared ownership All owned 206,066 69.7% 3.8% 19.3% 3.9% 3.3% Rented from Barnet Homes 28,752 53.4% 7.7% 12.6% 19.8% 6.5% Other Social Rented 18,508 49.9% 8.5% 13.5% 22.2% 5.9% All Social Rented 47,260 52.0% 8.0% 12.9% 20.7% 6.3% Private Rented 99,271 57.8% 5.6% 19.8% 9.4% 7.5% All categories 352,597 64.0% 4.8% 18.6% 7.7% 4.9%
Disproportionately high number of people living in socially rented housing are from BAME ethnicities and in particular Black ethnicities; more than 20% of people identifying themselves as black live in socially rented housing, while only 4% of black people are owner‐occupiers.
Source: Census Data 9 The way people live is changing too
There are 135,900 households in Barnet with an average of 2.6 people per household (and falling)
One in three households resides in a flat making these the most common type of dwelling
Movement towards smaller, single person households; 81,000 individuals living alone.
Lone parent households expected to increase by 82%
10 Source: Census 2011 Economy
11 A prosperous borough…
Distribution of unequivalised income in £5k bands 10.00%
9.00% 8.00% The average 7.00% household income in 6.00% Barnet was lowest in 2008 5.00% 2010 2012. The greatest 4.00% 2012 increase since 2012 3.00% 2014 has been seen in 2.00% households earning 1.00% £100k+. 0.00%
Between 2012 and 2014, Barnet’s Nominal Values 2008 2010 2012 2014 average household Barnet £35,475 £36,213 £35,412 £40,550 income increased by Unequivalised* 14.5%, compared to Great Britain £28,698 £28,445 £28,413 £28,467 the Great Britain average which Barnet £31,454 £32,129 £33,579 £38,147 Equivalised* increased by 0.2%.
Great Britain £25,486 £26,518 £27,580 £27,805 *Equivalised income estimates take into account the size and composition of a household and reflect the idea that a larger household would require a higher income than a small household in order to achieve an equivalent standard of living
Source: CACI Equalised Paycheck 2014 12 Employment
Employment rate- 16 to 64 years Employment rates in Barnet have 75 recovered from a dip in 2009 70
65 % 60 Employment rates in Barnet rose 55 faster than the national average (July 50 2012 to December 2013)
There is big disparity b/w Barnet London Great Britain employment rates of wards –e.g. East Source: Annual Population Survey, Dec 2013 Finchley (70%); Colindale (59%)
72.0
70.0
68.0
66.0
64.0
62.0
60.0 Employment rate (%) rate Employment 58.0
56.0
54.0
52.0
Source: ONS July 2013 13 Employment
% self-employed (16 to 64 years) 20
18
16 14 A high % of the working age population 12
% 10 employed in finance and the public sector (inc. 8 Education & Health) 6
4
2 2.2 0 0.3 Energy and Water Barnet London Great Britain 5.2 Manufacturing Second highest rate of self employment in London Construction & small companies as employer 5.2 19 Wholesale and retail, including motor trades Local units in VAT and/or PAYE based enterprises, March 2012 34 Transport storage
Percentage Barnet London England Accomodation and food services 2.7 90 Information and communication 80 6.8 70 Financial and other business 3.4 services 60 Public admin, education and 50 health 21.2 40 Other Services
30
20
10
0 0-4 5-9 10-19 20-49 50-99 100+
Source: Office for National Statistics
Source: ONS December 2013 14 Unemployment
Claimant count rate Unemployment rate as % working age population 4.5 10 4 9 8 3.5 7 3 6 2.5 Barnet
% 5 4 Barnet % 2 London London Great Britain 3 1.5 2 Great Britain 1 1 0 0.5 0
Barnet did not escape the effects of the Unemployment rate by age group, Jul 2012 to Jun 2013
economic downturn. Barnet London England Percentage 50 45 In the year to June 2012, 8.6% of the local 40 population was believed to be unemployed – 35 30 before recovering to 6.9% in the year to June 25 2013 but still up from the equivalent period in 20 15 2008 when local unemployment stood at 4.8% 10 5 0 Unemployment highest amongst under 25 age 16-19 years 20-24 years 25-34 years 35-49 years 50+ years groups Source: Nomis, Office for National Statistics
Source: ONS July 2013 15 The Housing Market
16 Private Renting up, Home Ownership down
40% Tenure compared- Census 11 2001 2011 70% 30% 60% 50% 20% 40% 30% 20% 10% 10% 0% 0% Enfield Harrow Brent Waltham Outer Barnet Forest London
Owner-occupation Social rent Private renting
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Source: Census 2001 2011 17 House prices in Barnet have recovered but sales volumes have not…..
Average price (£) Volume 450,000 800 700 400,000 600
350,000 500 400 300,000 300 200 250,000 100 200,000 0 Jul-06 Jul-07 Jul-08 Jul-09 Jul-10 Jul-11 Jul-12 Jul-13 Apr-06 Oct-06 Apr-07 Oct-07 Apr-08 Oct-08 Apr-09 Oct-09 Apr-10 Oct-10 Apr-11 Oct-11 Apr-12 Oct-12 Apr-13 Oct-13 Apr-14 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Median house price in Barnet rose by 6.2% during the year to April 2014. The Barnet median house price in April 2014, £405,073 is nearly 12X the Barnet median income.
Top 5 wards mean house prices 2012 Bottom 5 wards mean house prices 2012 Garden Suburb £1,070,407 West Hendon £342,540 Childs Hill £829,236 Coppetts £341,357 Totteridge £620,502 East Barnet £335,208 Golders Green £536,558 Colindale £266,551 Finchley Church End £509,322 Burnt Oak £232,425
Source: Land Registry for England & Wales 18 House price to income ratios in Barnet
14
12
10
8
6
4 Median vs Median L quartile vs L Quartile
2
0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: DCLG April 2014 19 Average price ‘dip’ and subsequent ‘recovery’ reflected across all property sizes..
1,000,000
900,000
800,000
700,000
600,000
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
0 Jul-06 Jul-07 Jul-08 Jul-09 Jul-10 Jul-11 Jul-12 Jul-13 Apr-06 Oct-06 Apr-07 Oct-07 Apr-08 Oct-08 Apr-09 Oct-09 Apr-10 Oct-10 Apr-11 Oct-11 Apr-12 Oct-12 Apr-13 Oct-13 Apr-14 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14
Detached average Semi average Terraced average Flat average
Source: Land Registry 20 Private sector rents have increased faster in Barnet
Lower Quartile monthly rents (VOA) 1,300 1,200 Barnet lower quartile private 1,100 rents have increased by £325 1,000 between June 2011 and 900 March 2014. Barnet was 800 below the average for Outer th 700 London and is now the 4 600 most expensive outer London 500 borough Jul-13 Jul-12 Jul-11 Oct-13 Apr-13 Oct-12 Apr-12 Oct-11 Jun-13 Jan-14 Jun-12 Jan-13 Jun-11 Jan-12 Feb-14 Mar-14 Feb-13 Mar-13 Feb-12 Mar-12 Aug-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Aug-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Aug-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 May-13 May-12 Barnet Outer London Inner London Brent Harrow Enfield Waltham Forest
Weekly rents compared Council £600 Weekly council rents are £500 Median Private approximately 30% of median £400 private sector rents LHA Outer NL £300
LHA NWL £200 Median private sector rents are £100 LHA INL higher than Local housing £0 allowance rates in most areas 1 Bed 2 Bed 3 Bed 4 Bed+
Source: Valuation Office Agency 21 Landlord possession claims similar to neighbouring boroughs
Source: Ministry of Justice – June 2014 22 Mortgage possession rates have fallen
Source: Ministry of Justice – March 2012 23 Welfare Reform
24 Broad impact of welfare reforms in Barnet
Barnet is in the top 10% of 325 English LAs for 3 key indicators:
• 7th biggest loser for working age households claiming benefit
• 12th biggest loser on spare room subsidy
• 16th biggest loser on HB LHA
25 The reality of the housing situation in Barnet makes rent increasingly unaffordable In Feb 2014 there were Predicted HB claimants with a shortfall over 9,000 between rent and LHA rate households with a shortfall 14000 12000 200+ between their LHA rate and 10000 100‐199.99 their rent. 8000 50.00‐99.99 6000 25‐49.99 4000 0‐24.99 2000
0 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 Rents rose 9% in Barnet in 2012/13 and LHA rates are set to rise just 4% a year from April ‘14.( some areas this will be 1%)
by 2017 over 4,000 households in Barnet could have a shortfall of £50 or more a week
26 Homelessness
27 Homeless has increased in Barnet
Homeless acceptances per 1,000 population
Barnet has gone from rank 11 out of 19 Outer London boroughs in 2010/11 to rank 7 by quarter 3 2012/13. Acceptances in Barnet have risen from 1.7 to 3 per thousand population since 2010.
Source: CLG Returns 28 Increase in rough sleepers
Number of persons seen rough sleeping in Barnet over the last four years 100
90 80 70 more persons seen 70 sleeping rough in Barnet in 60
50 2012/13 than in 2011/12.
40
30
20
10
0 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13
Rough sleepers in Barnet by nationality (2012/13)
2 UK 6 ROI
19 CEE 2012/13 increase Africa represents a large group Other of Romanians seen 2 sleeping rough on two separate nights between Sept 2012 and April 2013. 63
Source: CHAIN (December 2013) 29 Housing supply for homeless people has reduced
1200 Homeless Applications
1000 have increased along with acceptances and 800 admissions to
600 temporary accommodation 400
200
0 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 Homeless presentations Homeless acceptances
800
700
600 The supply of private 500 rented homes available to housing 400 applicants reduced 300 from 2009/100 but 200 had improved since 100 2012/13 0 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14
Source:Council LBB Housing association Private rented 30 This means the cost of temporary housing is rising
Units procured above subsidy rate 500 Higher private rents means it costs 450 the council more to procure 400 temporary accommodation for 350 homeless families 300 250 200 150 Cost to the council 100 £1,200,000 50 0 £1,000,000
£800,000
£600,000
At the end of last year the £400,000 council had spent more £200,000 than £1m above the subsidy level limit £0
31 Older People
32 Growing older population
The over 60 population 64,690 and is projected to be 109,849 by 2041‐ an increase of 41%.
The over 90s population is set to increase from under 3,000 in 2011 to almost 12,000 in 2041.
There will be more over 90 year olds than 85‐89 year olds from 2035.
Source: GLA Projections 33 Where older person households are located
According to the Mosaic customer profiling tool two areas that have high numbers of older people are Totteridge and in the centre of the borough near Finchley Church End and Mill Hill.
Source: MOSAIC 34 Town Centre Footfall
By Age (%)
0-20 21-30 31-40 41-50 51-60 over 60
Brent Street 3.9 28.6 20.8 16.4 12.9 17.4
Burnt Oak 5.4 21.1 21.3 18.6 13.5 20 Data on mobile phone usage from Telefonica Chipping Barnet 4.3 18.4 17.6 19.8 16.1 23.7 suggests that generally Colindale 4.4 24.9 22.4 18.1 13.2 17.1 areas in the east of the Cricklewood 3.6 25.9 23.1 17.6 12.9 16.8 borough have visits from
East Finchley 2.3 22.6 22.3 18.4 13.6 20.8 a higher proportion of older people. Edgware 5.4 22 21.3 18.6 13.6 19.1
Finchley Church End 2.8 21.4 22.5 18.7 13.6 21.1
Golders Green 3.4 27.4 22.4 16.2 12.9 17.7
Hendon Central 4.2 30.5 22.7 16.3 11.9 14.3
Mill Hill 4.6 18.1 20.3 19.3 14.7 23
New Barnet 2.3 21.6 20.9 20.7 15.3 19.2
North Finchley 3.5 18.9 20.1 19.8 14.9 22.7
Source: Telefonica 35 Growth of older households by ward
In 2011 the ward with the highest number of people over 65 was Oakleigh followed by Finchley Church and Garden Suburb.
All wards are expected to see a growth in the number of older people.
In 2041 the most populous ward for people over 65 will be Mill Hill, then Golders Green and Brunswick Park.
Source: GLA Projections 36 Older people living alone and tenure
People aged over 75 living alone The majority of older people own their own home 20,000 but 12% of the over 75s live in the private rented 18,000 sector. 16,000
14,000
12,000
10,000 8,000 Older people and housing tenure 6,000 90% 4,000 80% 2,000
0 70% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2020 2025 2030 60%
All Long tern limiting illness 50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0% More older people will be living alone in future Owned Council Rented Other Social Rented Private Rented
years, including those with a long term limited People 65-74 People 75-84 People 85+ illness.
Source: GLA Projections/Census 37 Chronic and long-term conditions of over 65s
2010 2015 2020 % Increase
With a limiting long-term illness 20,359 22,593 24,583 21%
With longstanding health condition caused by a stroke 1,101 1,219 1,345 22%
With longstanding health condition caused by a heart attack 2,329 2,576 2,831 22%
With diabetes 5,861 6,514 7,144 22%
With dementia 3,778 4,185 4,743 26%
With depression 4,179 4,624 5,025 20%
Unable to manage a mobility activity on own 9,466 10,409 11,617 23%
Unable to manage a self-care activity on own 16,943 18,608 20,618 22%
Unable to manage a domestic task on own 20,644 22,679 25,159 22%
By 2020, many chronic and long term illnesses are projected to increase by more than 20%. Over 65s living with dementia will increase by 26%
Source: Dept. of Health 38 Older people falling in their home..
As proportion of those Number of people falling each year
fall each year 18,083 -
fall twice or more 7,817 43%
attend A/E 2,567 14%
call an ambulance 2,567 14%
sustain a fracture 1,283 7%
sustain fracture to hip 420 2%
Using estimates produced by Department of Health on the number of falls and their consequences for a typical PCT, the following figures were extrapolated for Barnet. Based on a total population of 343,088 and a population aged 65+ of 47,253
Source: GLA Projections 39 Growing demand for care from an ageing population
Service By 2017 By 2022 By 2027 Users in 2012 All Users 7525 +732 +1464 +2298 18-64 2663 +190 +270 +352 65-74 813 +105 +124 +178 75-84 1636 +10 +220 +414 85+ 2413 +427 +850 +1354
Residential 1078 +111 +230 +362 18-64 354 +25 +39 +51 65-74 88 +11 +13 +19 75-84 211 +1 +28 +53 85+ 425 +75 +150 +239 •In 2011/12 roughly two‐thirds of Barnet’s social care users are aged 65 or over and a third are aged
Nursing 363 +42 +93 +148 85 or over. 18-64 28 +2 +4 +5 •These proportions may well increase as over the 65-74 38 +5 +6 +8 next five years there will be 4,459 more residents 75-84 102 +1 +14 +26 aged 65 or over (a 9.2% increase) and 1,424 more 85+ 195 +34 +69 +109 residents aged over 85 (a 17.7% increase), compared to average growth of only 8.1% expected in the Barnet population as a whole.
40
Stock Condition & Empty Homes
42 Non decent homes in the private sector
BRE housing stock models update 2009
Source: BRE 43 Inadequate thermal comfort in the private sector
BRE housing stock models update 2009
Source: BRE 44 Energy Performance Certificates
Primary EP improvement recommended EPC ratings by Postcode Districts in LB Barnet Hot Water 80 thermostatic controls 2% 78 Solid wall insulation 76 Hot Water cylinder 11% insulation 74 8%
72 EPC rating 70 Room thermostatic 68 controls Cavity wall insulation 30% 66 27%
64
62
60
Drought proofing Loft insulation 4% 18%
ENERGY_RATING_CURRENT ENERGY_RATING_POTENTIAL The most cited EP improvements are cavity wall The EPC data suggests most residential properties in insulation and room thermostatic control installation. Barnet are within 10 percentage points of their full energy performance potential.
Post Code N10 EN4 N20 NW2 NW7 HA8 EN5 NW9 N11 N3 N2 NW4 N12 NW11
EPC rated properties 132 334 317 347 461 654 781 553 435 587 496 723 806 630
Source: Landmark 2013 45 Fuel poverty & excess winter deaths
20 DECC Fuel Poverty Statistics 18 In 2011 10.6% of Barnet’s 16 households, or 13,628 homes, 14 were fuel poor. 12
10 8 This is, however, still 4 percentage 6 points lower than the average for 4 England as a whole.
Percentage households in fuel poverty fuel Percentage householdsin 2
0 2006 2008 2009 2010 2011
Barnet England
Public Health Observatory data 350 The level of excess cold 300 hazards is considered an issue 250 given the increasing numbers 200 of older residents in Barnet. 150
EWD in Barnet EWD in 100
50 On average there are 125 0 EWD every year in Barnet over period 2001 – 2011 90-91 91-92 92-93 93-94 94-95 95-96 96-97 97-98 98-99 99-00 00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11
Source: DECC 46 More vacant dwellings than in neighbouring boroughs
All vacant dwellings 2008 to 2012 Long term vacant dwellings 2008 to 2012 4,500 2,000
4,000 1,800
1,600 3,500
1,400 3,000 1,200 2,500 1,000 2,000 800 1,500 600
1,000 400
500 200
0 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Barnet Enfield Harrow Brent Waltham Forest Camden Barnet Enfield Harrow Brent Waltham Forest Camden
Source: DCLG/Land Registry 47 Long-term empty property survey 2012
Occupancy Status Number %
Being Demolished 2 0.16% Occupied following previous advice from Environmental Health 48 4% Reoccupied 205 16% Second property 1 0.08% Occupied following notice by Environmental Health 1 0.08% Other reason 1 0.08% Still empty (at least 12 months) 985 79% Total properties inspected 1,243
Source: LBB 48 Housing Supply & Demand
49 Delivery- high capacity to deliver new homes
London Plan Target % of LP % of Delivery for new homes Target Population Barnet 10,635 31.51% 18.20%
Camden 2,500 7.41% 13.20%
Enfield 2,760 8.18% 16.00%
Hackney 5,775 17.11% 12.70%
Haringey 4,100 12.15% 13.20%
Islington 4,610 13.66% 12.20%
Westminster 3,375 10.00% 14.60%
Source: NLHP SHMA 2010 50 Barnet Housing trajectories
Barnet Housing Trajectory 2011/12 - Barnet's Affordable Housing Trajectory - 2011/12 2028/29 900 12000 800 Past Completions 768 Past Completions Projected Completions 10000 700 547 Projected Completions 624 596 8000 600 MANAGE - Annual requirement taking 512 511 485 account of past/projected completions 500 450 6000 PLAN - London Plan Strategic Allocation (annualised to 2025/26 and 400 375 375 carried forward) 312 308 319 293 4000 Dwellings 300 270 244 245 217 Dwellings 2000 200 119 104 91 100 1240 1340 1670 1830 1740 2330 2040 2250 1660 2300 1750 1890 1620 1210 1500 1310 1080 1370 1070 1010 1010 1510 250 920 810 960 970 770 0 610 0
Capacity for more than 27,300 additional housing More than 3,900 additional affordable housing by 2028/29 by 2020/01
Residential completions 2004 - 2012 financial years – breakdown by housing type
Number of bedrooms
Unit Type 1 % 2 % 3 % 4 % 5+ % Total % Flats 2267 33 3813 56 712 10 44 1 7 0 6843 83 Houses 110 8 171 12 566 41 382 28 160 11 1389 17 Total number 2377 29 3984 48 1278 16 426 5 167 2 8232 100 of units
Source: LBB AMR 51 Majority of the new housing will be delivered through the Barnet Regeneration Programme
15,000+ NEW HOMES BUILT OVER THE LIFETIME OF THE REGENERATION SCHEMES 450 NEW JOBS IN NEXT 5 YEARS 10 SCHOOLS ACROSS PRIMARY, SECONDARY & HIGHER EDUCATION LEVELS +91,509 SQM OF RETAIL & COMMERCIAL SPACE DELIVERED IN BRENT CROSS SHOPPING CENTRE c£25m+ NEW HOMES BONUS Housing & Growth (Regeneration only)
Housing delivery: Priority Estates, Brent Cross Cricklewood & Mill Hill East
1200
1000
800
600 Private Affordable 400
200
0 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29+
• The 2012/13 housing target for completions was 404 units of housing. By March 2013, the number of completions for the year was 469 units, of which 212 were affordable.
Housing delivery in 2012/13 Qtr 1Qtr 2Qtr 3Qtr 4 2012/13 Totals Private 129 20 0 108 257 Regeneration Estates 129 20 0 108 257 Mill Hill East 0 0 0 0 0 Affordable 39 8 0 165 212 Intermediate 3 3 0 28 34 Rented 36 5 0 137 178 Total 168 28 0 273 469 • The 2013/14 housing target is 39 private housing units and 0 affordable housing units in the Priority Estates.
• 2014/15 will see a significant increase in housing completions.