Standard-Poor-Swiss-Re-Group-Rating
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Swiss Re Group Primary Credit Analyst: Ali Karakuyu, London + 44 20 7176 7301; [email protected] Secondary Contact: Robert J Greensted, London + 44 20 7176 7095; [email protected] Research Contributor: Kalyani Joshi, CRISIL Global Analytical Center, an S&P affiliate, Mumbai Table Of Contents Credit Highlights Outlook Key Assumptions Business Risk Profile Financial Risk Profile Other Key Credit Considerations Related Criteria Appendix WWW.STANDARDANDPOORS.COM/RATINGSDIRECT MAY 27, 2021 1 Swiss Re Group Anchor aa- + Modifiers 0 = SACP aa- + AA-/Negative/-- Business Very Strong Risk Governance Neutral Support 0 Competitive Excellent position Financial strength rating IICRA Intermediate = Financial Strong Liquidity Exceptional Group support 0 Risk Capital and A/Negative/-- earnings Very strong Risk exposure Moderately Comparable Government high ratings 0 support 0 Funding analysis structure Neutral Holding company ICR IICRA--Insurance Industry And Country Risk Assessment. SACP--Stand-alone credit profile. Credit Highlights Overview Key strengths Key risks Excellent franchise, being one of the top reinsurers globally. Historically weak performance in property and casualty (P/C) albeit improving Diversified product suite across non-life and life reinsurance that High exposure to natural catastrophe risks, bringing volatility to capital and bolsters the competitive position earnings, in common with peers Very well capitalized with 'AA' level risk-based capital. Performance targets that are difficult to achieve in the challenging economic, insurance, and financial market environment S&P Global Ratings expects the Swiss Re group will maintain its top tier position within the global reinsurance sector. As of Dec. 31, 2020, about 51% of Swiss Re's net premiums earned (NPE) emanates from the non-life reinsurance business unit, 34% from life and health reinsurance, 10% from corporate solutions (CorSo; primary non-life business), and 5% from life capital (primary business). As of 2020, the group is also present in many significant markets, and generates about 48% of its NPE and fee income in the Americas; 32% in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa; and 20% in Asia-Pacific. Pandemic-led losses hit operating performance in 2020, but we expect a recovery of group earnings over 2021-2022. Based on 2020 results, the group remains a negative outlier relative to close peers with a reported combined (loss and expense) ratio of 109% for P/C reinsurance (P/C Re) and 116.5% for CorSo. However, the first-quarter 2021 results were strong, with improved underwriting performance demonstrated by P/C Re's combined ratio of 96.5% and 96% for CorSo, fueled by better claims experience, corrective underwriting actions, and recent price increases. For 2021-2022, we expect a combined ratio of about 98% and net income of $2.0 billion-$2.5 billion annually. Capitalization to remain very strong in the long term in line with that of European peers. We anticipate Swiss Re will maintain its 'AA' risk-based capital, as measured by our capital model. From a regulatory perspective, the group's Swiss solvency test (SST) ratio remains strong at 215% (within the target range of 200%-250%) as of Jan. 1, 2021. Furthermore, we expect the group to retain sufficient earnings and use hybrid capital when needed, as demonstrated in WWW.STANDARDANDPOORS.COM/RATINGSDIRECT MAY 27, 2021 2 Swiss Re Group the past. Outlook : Negative The negative outlook reflects that Swiss Re's underwriting performance, and consequently earnings, may not be in line with our expectations. This may influence our view of the group's competitive position, which we currently see as excellent. Downside scenario We could lower the rating by one notch over the 18 months if: • Underwriting performance of the P/C business does not align with our projections over 2021-2022; or • The group's capital drops below the 'AA' confidence level for a sustained period. We could lower the ratings on the subsidiaries of the CorSo business unit if we note signs of reduced commitment from the parent to the business unit, indicating it is less than core to the group's strategy. Upside scenario We could revise the outlook to stable in the next 18 months if the group improves the underwriting results of its P/C business by performing broadly in line with our forecasts, and displays no particular weaknesses in its competitive position. Key Assumptions • After the global recession in 2020, 4.2% GDP growth in the eurozone in 2021 and 4.4% in 2022. For the U.S., we expect real GDP growth of about 6.5% and 3.1% in 2021 and 2022. • Negative prospects for the global reinsurance sector, mostly due to sector's inability to meet its cost of capital on a sustainable basis. • Sector capitalization to remain robust with no material capital erosion so far, benefiting from capital raises in 2020 and a strong financial market recovery from March 2020 lows. • Swiss Re and the wider reinsurance sector to continue price increases in 2021 following hardening over the past two years in response to above-average catastrophe losses and the fallout from COVID-19. • Life reinsurers facing higher, albeit manageable, mortality losses caused by the pandemic. • Modest premium growth in 2021-2022 (near 5%) mostly reflecting price increases. • Lower investment returns due to lower-for-longer interest rates, higher credit losses, and capital market volatility. • Long-term interest rates of 2.0% in 2021 and 2.3% in 2022 in the U.S., and 0% in 2021 and 0.3% in 2021 in the eurozone. WWW.STANDARDANDPOORS.COM/RATINGSDIRECT MAY 27, 2021 3 Swiss Re Group Swiss Re--Key Metrics Mil. $ 2022f 2021f 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 Gross premiums written 44,250 43,600 42,951 42,228 36,406 34,775 35,622 Net income 2,500.0 2,000.0 (824.0) 769.0 481 393 3623 Return on shareholders' equity (%) 8.6 ~7 -2.8 2.6 1.5 1.1 10.5 Property/casualty: Net combined ratio (%) 98.0 98.0 110.3 111.4 106.6 115.4 94.8 Fixed-charge coverage (x) ~4 ~4 (2.7) 0.3 2.4 (0.3) 6.6 Financial leverage (%) ~27 ~27 26.3 23.7 20.9 N/A N/A S&P Global Ratings capital adequacy Very strong Very strong Very strong Very strong Excellent Excellent Excellent N/A--Not applicable. Business Risk Profile: Very Strong In our opinion, Swiss Re's competitiveness is underpinned by its market leading position in the global P/C and life reinsurance markets, well recognized brand, and well-diversified portfolio across all geographies and segments. Like its peers, Swiss Re Group continues to benefit from the positive pricing momentum since P/C Re achieved a nominal increase of 6.5% in January and 4% in April 2021 renewals in recognition of the pressure on the sector's capital. Furthermore, following pandemic-related losses, the group has tightened terms and conditions on the property book renewed with the exclusion of infectious diseases, followed by a targeted reduction of business and aggregate catastrophe business. In our view, Swiss Re and other global reinsurers continue to struggle to cover their cost of capital due to COVID-19-related losses, large natural catastrophe losses, adverse loss trends in the U.S. casualty lines, and intense competition. In recognition of the challenges, the group is increasing prices and reduced exposure by $0.7 billion in some U.S. casualty lines during the January renewal period. Swiss Re benefits from its established brand name, as well as the size and strength of its capitalization, both of which help it to offer bespoke and innovative services to its clients. The group's highly diversified product offering and long-established direct client relationships insulate it from the more intense pricing and exposure risks that more concentrated reinsurers experience. In addition, the group is optimizing capital allocation to manage the pricing cycle by allocating capital to areas and business lines that provide better returns. The life reinsurance market is characterized by higher operational barriers to entry (the market is dominated by only a handful of reinsurers), which will likely continue to insulate Swiss Re from the potential destabilizing effects of new entrants. In 2020, the pandemic's impact dampened the group's earnings, leading to a net loss of $878 million, which was materially below our expectations. Earnings were hit by $3.9 billion of pandemic-related loss reserves, with a significant portion in the form of incurred but not reported reserves. In first-quarter 2021, Swiss Re delivered strong earnings of $333 million, fueled by improved underwriting performance. This was despite COVID-19 losses of $643 million. In the life and health business, the group's performance has been hurt by the high death toll in the U.S. caused by COVID-19. This cost it about $570 million in first-quarter 2021, which resulted in a segment loss of $184 million. WWW.STANDARDANDPOORS.COM/RATINGSDIRECT MAY 27, 2021 4 Swiss Re Group For first-quarter 2021, P/C Re reported a strong combined ratio of 96.5% including COVID-19 losses of $ 45 million and large natural catastrophe of $316 million compared with 110.8% for the same period last year. CorSo reported a strong combined ratio of 96% compared with 120.6% the same period last year. This stemmed from corrective underwriting actions in recent years and improved pricing conditions in its main areas of operations. We continue to monitor Swiss Re's operating performance compared with our forecast for the group to generate a return on equity (ROE) higher than 7% and combined ratios of about 98% over the forecast period. Nevertheless, the negative outlook on the group's core entities continues to reflect uncertainty about its future performance.