Solaria Energía Y Medio Ambiente Fact and Fiction in the Spanish PV Market
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Solaria Energía y Medio Ambiente Fact and fiction in the Spanish PV Market 19 February 2009 Pedro Echeguren. Director. Head of IR Tel.: +34 91 5644272 [email protected] Growth in the Spanish Solar Market Capturing the Potential for Growth in Spain Supportive Regulatory Environment PV Installed Capacity (MW) Regg(ppy)ulation RD 661/2007 (Approved 25 May 2007) 3,800 2,973 ¾ Fixed amount to be applied to capacity installed up to 29 September 2008; growth rate indexed to CPI minus 0.25% 1,938 until Dec-2012 and CPI minus 0.50% thereafter: 1000 814 750 692 First 25 years After 25 years 500 Up to 100 kW 44.04 c€ 35.23 c€ 250 144 100 1 3 7 11 22 46 100 kW – 10 MW 41.75 c€ 33.40 c€ 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2007 2007 2007 2007 10 MW – 50 MW 22. 98 c€ 18. 38 c€ Spain Japan Italy Source CNE for Spain, EPIA for other countries Germany US Attractive Radiation Conditions Regulation RD 1578/2008 (Approved 26 Sep 2008) ¾ Applicable to licences applied after 29 September 2008. Market size: 500 MW in 2009 and 2010, 460 MW in 2011 Solar Radiation ¾ Tariffs indexed to CPI minus 0.25%, valid for 25 years ¾ Spain = 1,586 kWh/m2 25 years ¾ Germany = 1,014 kWh/m2 Rooftop installations <20 kW 34.00 c€ Rooftop installations 20 kW - 2 MW 32.00 c€ ¾ Europe= 1,197 kWh/m2 Ground based (Maximum size 10 MW) 32.00 c€ Source European Comm iss ion Pho tovo lta ic Geograp hica l In forma tion Syst em PVGIS http:// re.j rc.ec.europa.eu/ pvgi s/ Regulation passed in September 2008 provides a supportive 3-year framework 3 Fact and Fiction in the Spanish Solar Market PV Installed Capacity in Spain (MW) 4500 Dec-08 2973 MW Market size per year 4000 4195 MW ¾ 2007: 547 MW 3500 Dec-07 ¾ 2008: 2,281 MW (or 3,503 MW 3000 692 MW under the 569 MW statistical 2500 calculation) ¾ 2009: 500 MW 2000 Dec-06 ¾ 2010: 500 MW 145 MW 1500 ¾ 2011: 460 MW (unless current 1000 scheme is superseded by the expected 2010- 500 2020 renewables plan) 0 2007 2008 Actual CNE data CNE’s Statistical calculation Source: www.cne .es (Spanish Energy Commission) Regulation passed in September 2008 modulates growth 4 Fact and Fiction in the Spanish Solar Market Cantabria 1 MW Growth in installed capacity: 2008 Asturias 0 MW SOLAR PV per region MW YOY Galicia Basque 16 MW Navarra 156 MW 7 MW CASTILLE MANCHA 791 386% Rioja 74 MW Andalusia 357 391% Catalonia Castille Leon Fuenmayor Castille León 354 309% Aragon 158 MW Extremadura 344 476% 354 MW 110 MW Murcia 280 306% Valencia 215 177% Catalonia 158 312% Madrid 23 MW Navarra 156 159% Aragón 110 1213% RIOJA 74 818% CASTILLE MANCHA Valencia Canary Is. 48 110% Regions <10 MW 85 231% Extremadura 791 MW 215 MW 344 MW Almadén Total Spain 2,973 329% Puertollano Balearic Is. 36 MW Installed Production Murcia GW TWh 280 MW Hydro 17 21 Andalusia Nuclear 8 59 Solaria’s factories: Puertollano, 357 MW Coal 11 50 Fuenmayor and Almadén Fuel & Gas 8 11 Canary Is. 48 MW CCGT 22 96 Wind 15 29 TOTAL SOLAR Solar 3 2 2,973 MW Ceuta & Melilla 0 MW Other 6 37 Exports ‐7 Pumping ‐11 Total Spain 90 279 Source: Red Eléctrica de España (www.ree.es) and CNE (www.cne.es) Jan. 2009, Statistics on sales of renewable energies 5 Turn-key leadership in Spain LA RIOJA 11 MW Fuenmayor (Logroño) LEON 1 MW Completed: Sept. 2008 Villamañá n (Leó n) Completed: Sept. 2008 MIGUELTURRA 1.3 MW Miguelturra (Ciudad Real) Completed: March 2008 POZUELO 1 MW EXTREMADURA I 11 MW Pozuelo de Calatrava (Ciudad Real) Villanueva de la Serena (Bdj(Badajoz ) Completed: March 2008 Completed: Sept. 2008 PUERTOLLANO 1 MW Puertollano (Ciudad Real) Completed: June 2008 EXTREMADURA II 11 MW Magacela (Badajoz) MURCIA 7 MW Completed: Sept. 2008 Alhama de Murcia (Murcia) Completed: Sept. 2008 Turn key projec ts: Mark et lead er in Spai n with over 44 MW of Turn-key projjtects compltdleted 6 Export activities Solaria expects 1/3 of 2009 revenues to be generated from export activities (Modules and Turnkey). The remaining 2/3 (domestic business) to be split 60% Modules / 40% Turnkey. Italy: Exports of PV Modules started in Q4 2007. Local office is well advanced in the application process for obtaining Turnkey licenses France: Local office to be started in H2‐2009. Outlook for Module and Turnkey demand could exceed market expectations for the Italian market Morocco: Bids presented in Q1‐2009 for 4 x 40 MW off‐grid projects. Bidding consortium ildincludes well‐positioned lllocal partners Chile and Brazil: Non‐grid Turnkey applications are being negotiated with local buyers. OtitOpportunity to dldeploy expertise in SihSpanish‐speaking countitries Expansion into new markets is to reduce dependance on the Spanish market and export a succesful business model 7 Sector Value Chain Raw Silicon Silicon Blocks Silicon Wafers Solar Cells Solar Modules Distribution/ Turnkey Installations Development REC Group MEMC Hemlock Wacker SolarWorld AG Schott Solar ESErSo l Q-Cells Sharp Evergreen Solar SOLARIA NOW SOLARIA IN H1-2008 Sunpower Isofoton BP Solar Conergy Mitsubishi Electric Sunways Solon Solar-Fabrik Aleo Solar ATERSA Siliken Phönix Sonnenstrom SAG Solarstrom Acciona 8 Gamesa Capacity and Production Targets 2006 2007 2008 2009 2011 PV Modules Capacityy( (Year end, MW) 25 150 250 350 650 Production (MW) 6 40 --- --- --- Utilization Rate (%) n/m n/m 80% Cells Capacity (Year end, MW) - 25 25 100 650 Production (MW) - 0 --- --- --- Utilization Rate (%) - - 80% Factory sites in 2011 PV Modules: Three factories: Puertollano 250 MW + La Rioja 300 MW + Almaden 100 MW Cells: Two factories: Puertollano 400 MW + La Rioja 250 MW 9 Solaria Tomorrow Solaria is to maintain the leadership in installing Turnkey projects in Spain and be one of the worldwide leaders in manufacturing PV modules PV factory in Puertollano reached planned capacity of 250 MW in Q1 2008. Cell manufacturing started in September 2008, now adding new capacity First phase of investment in new PV Module factory (Fuenmayor) completed in September 2008, recently comissioned 100 MW capacity Client profile evolves from spot to contract, thus becoming more stable and long term‐oritdiented. Financi ng issues have ilitiimplications on client profiles We expect more competition in our sector and are leveraging our leadership, ittinvestments, financ ial stthtrength and free cash‐flow to become a world ldleader Entry into new marketsistoreduce dependance on the Spanish market and export a succesful business model 10 Solaria Energía y Medio Ambiente Back up slides 11 Solaria Today Solaria manufactures PV modules, Thermal pannels and Solaria’s factories are located in Puertollano develops Turnkey installations and in Fuenmayor • La Nava II ((PuertollanoPuertollano)) 51,300 sq.m sitesite:: Solar cell and PV module factories • La Nava III ((PuertollanoPuertollano:: 63,700 sq.m site: Under development • Secundary production centers and warehouses in Puertollano • Fuenmayor (La Rioja) 307,000 sq.m sitesite:: PV module factory PV Mo du les TkTurnkey itlltiinstallations Therma l pannels • Almadén: Feasibility studies for future PV module factory Solaria began trading in the Spanish Stock Key figures (€ 000s) MktMarket on 19 June 2007 2006 2007 9m 2008 SALES 19,147 186,209 221,265 • First and only Solar PV company listed on the Spanish stock Market EBITDA 8,940 71,695 53,257 • Only traded company from Castilla La Mancha • Market capcap:: € 250 mill EBIT 8,706 71,078 30,11052,087 • Free floatfloat:: 38.5% of shares (61.5% owned by NET PROFIT 5,642 48,400 2330,,791950 the comppyany’s founders) AVG WORKFORCE 48 324 559590 12 Solaria Today 9-mth 2008 Sales Breakdown ¾ Design, manufacture and sale of PV modules to third parties. Production capacity 250 MW / Year Module Value Added Services Turnkey PV Modules ¾ Technical assistance and post sales service 71% 29% Thermal 0% ¾ End-to-end development of solar PV power plants including engineering services Total Sales = €221 MM Value Added Services Turnkey ¾ Deep knowledge of local market 2007 Sales Breakdown ¾ Extensive project management know-how and experience Thermal 0% ¾ Grid Connection Point Manager status Turnkey 42% ¾ Design, manufacture, sale and installation of PV Modules thermal panels and engineering process 58% ¾ Potential linked to construction sector Thermal Value Added Services ¾ Technology adapted to Spanish climate Total Sales = €186 MM ¾ NO LONGER A CORE ACTIVITY Source Solaria IFRS Financial Statements 13 Regulatory Framework Positives: Licences will total 500 MW in 2009, 500 MW in 2010 and 460 MW in 2011 Flexible feed‐in tariff depending on growth rate of new installations Supportive 3‐yr framework until 2010‐2020 renewables plan is announced Negatives: Licences to be awarded quarterly. Q1 and Q2 auctions give priority to late runners and are unlikely to generate new demand for PV modules Licences to be awarded quarterly. Q1 and Q2 auctions give priority to late runners and are unlikely to generate new demand for PV modules Other considerations affecting demand outlook are the financing restrictions from banks and markets 14 Cell supplies contracted for 2008 Supply of cells is below the amounts contracted Supplier Status Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Total Gintech Contact signed 9.5 12.0 15.0 13.5 50.0 E Ton Contact signed 4.9 7.3 12.3 15.5 40.0 Neo Solar Power Contact signed 1.5 3.0 4.5 6.0 15.0 JA Solar Contact signed 6.0 9.0 15.0 15.0 45.0 Supplier 1Spot supply 2.5 2.5 5.0 Supplier 2Spot supply 2.5 2.5 5.0 Supplier 3Spot supply 2.5 2.5 5.0 Supplier 4Spot supply 1.0 3.0 4.0 Internal production Production starts Sept‐08 3.0 8.0 11.0 Cell supply contracted (MW) 21.9 31.3 58.3 68.5 180.0 Cell supply received (MW) 19.5 11.5 20.8 Delays in cell supplies have prevented reaching production targets 15 January – September 2008 results Sales +127% in 9m2008 vs 9m2007 9m 2008 vs 9‐mth 2008 (*) 9‐mth 2007 (*) FY‐07 9m 2007 Sales.