Naryn Rural Water Supply and Sanitation Development Program (RRP KGZ 52256)

CLIMATE CHANGE RISK ASSESSMENT

I. BASIC PROJECT INFORMATION

Project Title: Naryn Rural Water Supply and Sanitation Development Program Project Cost ($ million): 32.9 Location: Kyrgyz Republic Sector: Agriculture, natural resources and rural development Theme: Rural water supply and sanitation Brief Description: The program will focus on rural water supply and sanitation services provision for 43 villages in Naryn oblast. The indicative program scope will include: (i) development and rehabilitation of water supply networks and related infrastructure; (ii) piloting of non-networked sanitation solutions; and (iii) establishment of sustainable operational models, including development of local capacity and community-based operational management.

More specifically, the program will cover (i) the drilling of boreholes down to a suitable level (since many current aquifers from which water is extracted are shallow and contaminated), (ii) the construction of storage reservoir and (iii) disinfection systems, and (iv) the installation of standpipes from which the community can draw its water. The program will also support the construction and installation of part of the distribution network to street level for a smaller number of villages (representing approximately 64,000 population), and the achievement of gender-sensitive safe water and sanitation facilities in selected 13 village kindergartens/schools, and 8 health posts. The program will implement the piloting of non-networked sanitation solutions for 660 households in selected villages.

II. SUMMARY OF CLIMATE CHANGE FINANCE

Program Financing Climate Finance Amount Adaptation Source ($ million) ($ million) Asian Development Bank Ordinary capital resources (concessional loan) 13.7 0.6165 Special Funds resources (ADF grant) 13.7 0.6165 Government of the Kyrgyz Republic 5.5 Total Amount 32.9 1.2330 ADF = Asian Development Fund.

III. SUMMARY OF CLIMATE RISK SCREENING AND ASSESSMENT

A. Sensitivity of Project Component(s) to Climate or Weather Conditions and the Sea Level 1. Drilling of boreholes. May be at risk of ingress and damage from extreme weather events such as flood and landslide. 2. Above-ground facilities. May be at risk of damage from increased weather events. 3. Water supply adequacy. Water demand may increase due to increased temperatures. A. Climate Risk Screening 1. Subproject site selection will be conducted during program implementation in line with agreed criteria. 2. Annual mean temperature may increase by 2 to 3 °C by 2050, and extreme weather events may be more frequent. 3. River flow in Basin is expected to decline by 2050 due to reduced glacial melt, , and snowmelt.1

1 M. Punkari et al. 2014. Climate Change and Sustainable Water Management in Central Asia. ADB Central and West Asia Working Paper Series No. 5. Manila. 2

4. Plant operation and lifetime may be adversely affected by extreme weather events. Climate Risk Classification: Medium A. Climate Risk and Adaptation Assessment By mid-century, peak warming of close to 5°C relative to the reference period 1950–2005 is projected in the August and September months under the RCP 8.5 scenario (close to 2°C in August and September months under the RCP 4.5 scenario). On an annual mean basis, a 17% increase in precipitation is likely under the RCP 8.5 scenario relative to the reference period (41% under RCP 4.5 pathway) with peak precipitation increase in the month of December. However, a decline in summer precipitation (-10% during July month) combined with air temperature rise of 5°C can have serious implications for a rapid soil moisture depletion thus leading to drought conditions. However, precipitation is projected to increase in all months under RCP 4.5 pathway which could offset the impact of modest surface warming on soil moisture.2 The consequences of climate change on water resources are due to the changes in the seasonal distribution of precipitation, temperature increases, and changes in evapotranspiration; all these changes affect the replenishing regime of the groundwater system. Long-term droughts may result in the depletion or reduction in groundwater stores. Climate-related hazards such as floods, mudslides, landslides, uncontrolled release of water from high, mountainous lakes may be exacerbated by future increases in extreme weather events. Government of the Kyrgyz Republic has estimated the country-wide adaptation investment requirement at approximately $2 billion.3 The water resources sector is ranked at highest priority in needing these funds. The government’s national development program to 2022 and climate investment program describe strategic adaptation priorities for investment including modernizing water resources infrastructure and optimizing water management.4

Subproject site selection will be conducted during program implementation. Climate risk assessments will be conducted for each subproject and the results incorporated into a climate-proof design and siting. B. Climate Risk Screening Tool and/or Procedure Used UNEP PREVIEW Data Platform and desk-based literature review RCP = representative concentration pathway; UNEP = United Nations Environment Programme.

IV. CLIMATE ADAPTATION PLANS WITHIN THE PROGRAM

Estimated Adaptation Costs Adaptation Activity Target Climate Risk ($ million) Adaptation Finance Justification Climate-proofing Increased 1.233 As specific climate-proofing activities will be temperature, measures are currently unknown, determined during changes in pattern of indicative estimate of 5% is implementation, but precipitation and applied to disbursement-linked may include: water availability, indicators (DLIs) related to design, 1. Drilling of extreme weather construction, and management of boreholes with events such as flood facilities (DLIs 1–5,and DLI 8). installation of flood and landslides. This share is in line with climate barrier and proofing costs for earlier ADB projects in the region for water

2 ADB. 2018. Report and Recommendation of the President to the Board of Directors: Proposed Loan and Grant to the Kyrgyz Republic: Climate Change and Disaster-Resilient Water Resources Sector Project. Climate Change Assessment (accessible from the list of linked documents in Appendix 2). Manila. 3 Government of the Kyrgyz Republic. 2015. The Kyrgyz Republic: Intended Nationally Determined Contribution. . 4 Government of the Kyrgyz Republic. 2017. Pilot Program for Climate Resilience: The Kyrgyz Republic Climate Investment Programme. Bishkek; and Government of the Kyrgyz Republic. 2018. The Development Program of the Kyrgyz Republic for the Period 2018–2022: Unity. Trust. Creation. Bishkek.

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Estimated Adaptation Costs Adaptation Activity Target Climate Risk ($ million) Adaptation Finance Justification protection of supply and water resources borehole site; management.5 2. Raising boundary walls at intake sites; 3. Raising the level of borehole headworks (and ensuring headworks are sealed against surface water ingress); 4. Isolation of all electrical equipment once flood water reaches a certain trigger level; 5. Prepare shutdown plan to minimize damage under the critical events and to facilitate the re- start; 6. Preparation of remedial actions; 7. Manage and store floods and regulate the inflow at inter-annual scale.

5 ADB. : Dushanbe Water Supply and Sanitation Project; and ADB. Kyrgyz Republic: Climate Change and Disaster-Resilient Water Resources Sector Project.