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Gilead Sciences Inc.: Roche's Daniel O'day to Be December 10, 2018 12:09 PM GMT MORGAN STANLEY & CO. LLC Gilead Sciences Inc. | North America Matthew Harrison EQUITY ANALYST [email protected] +1 212 761-8055 Roche's Daniel O'Day To Be CEO Vikram Purohit RESEARCH ASSOCIATE [email protected] +1 212 761-3804 Stock Rating Industry View Price Target Gilead Sciences Inc. ( GILD.O, GILD US ) Equal-weight In-Line $85.00 Biotechnology / United States of America Stock Rating Equal-weight Industry View In-Line Price target $85.00 O'Day to be CEO effective 3/1/2019: O'Day comes from Roche where he ran the Shr price, close (Dec 7, 2018) $68.15 $40B, oncology focused, pharma business. O'Day has significant operational Mkt cap, curr (mm) $89,737 experiences across a multitude of diseases areas and businesses, which is likely to 52-Week Range $89.54-64.27 be viewed positively as he looks to expand Gilead's portfolio. Further, given Roche's focus on oncology, we see the hiring as a clear signal of Gilead's intention to grow its oncology business. Overall, we see O'Day as a solid choice. If there is an area of investor debate, it will likely be the limited number of acquisitions at Roche during O'Day's tenure (InterMune was the largest). Investors are looking for the new CEO to put Gilead's cash to work and given O'Day's history, we think investors will take a wait and see approach related to his ability to transform Gilead through M&A. We look forward to hearing O'Day's plan for Gilead in 2019. Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For analyst certification and other important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this report. 1 Valuation and Risks GILD.O GILD: Our $85 price target is based on a DCF that uses a 10% discount rate and a 0% terminal growth rate. We model explicit product revenues until 2030E. The bulk of Gilead’s revenues are derived from antiviral products, which are comprised of Gilead’s Hepatitis C (HCV) and HIV franchises. HCV revenue drivers are Harvoni, Sovaldi, Epclusa, and Vosevi, and HIV products include Atripla, Truvada, Viread, Stribild, and TAF-based regimens. A key non antiviral product is Axi-Cel for blood cancers. Key risks include decelerating growth in HCV sales, volatility in the HIV franchise, and pipeline failure. 2 Disclosure Section The information and opinions in Morgan Stanley Research were prepared by Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC, and/or Morgan Stanley C.T.V.M. S.A., and/or Morgan Stanley Mexico, Casa de Bolsa, S.A. de C.V., and/or Morgan Stanley Canada Limited. As used in this disclosure section, "Morgan Stanley" includes Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC, Morgan Stanley C.T.V.M. S.A., Morgan Stanley Mexico, Casa de Bolsa, S.A. de C.V., Morgan Stanley Canada Limited and their affiliates as necessary. For important disclosures, stock price charts and equity rating histories regarding companies that are the subject of this report, please see the Morgan Stanley Research Disclosure Website at www.morganstanley.com/researchdisclosures, or contact your investment representative or Morgan Stanley Research at 1585 Broadway, (Attention: Research Management), New York, NY, 10036 USA. For valuation methodology and risks associated with any recommendation, rating or price target referenced in this research report, please contact the Client Support Team as follows: US/Canada +1 800 303-2495; Hong Kong +852 2848-5999; Latin America +1 718 754-5444 (U.S.); London +44 (0)20-7425-8169; Singapore +65 6834-6860; Sydney +61 (0)2-9770-1505; Tokyo +81 (0)3-6836-9000. Alternatively you may contact your investment representative or Morgan Stanley Research at 1585 Broadway, (Attention: Research Management), New York, NY 10036 USA. Analyst Certification The following analysts hereby certify that their views about the companies and their securities discussed in this report are accurately expressed and that they have not received and will not receive direct or indirect compensation in exchange for expressing specific recommendations or views in this report: Matthew Harrison. Unless otherwise stated, the individuals listed on the cover page of this report are research analysts. Global Research Conflict Management Policy Morgan Stanley Research has been published in accordance with our conflict management policy, which is available at www.morganstanley.com/institutional/research/conflictpolicies. A Portuguese version of the policy can be found at www.morganstanley.com.br Important US Regulatory Disclosures on Subject Companies As of November 30, 2018, Morgan Stanley beneficially owned 1% or more of a class of common equity securities of the following companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research: Akebia Therapeutics Inc, Alder Biopharmaceuticals Inc, Alnylam Pharmaceuticals Inc, Amgen Inc., Chimerix Inc, Cytokinetics Inc, DBV Technologies SA, Editas Medicine, Galapagos NV, Global Blood Therapeutics Inc, ImmunoGen Inc., Insmed Inc, Radius Health Inc, Syndax Pharmaceuticals Inc, Voyager Therapeutics Inc. Within the last 12 months, Morgan Stanley managed or co-managed a public offering (or 144A offering) of securities of Akebia Therapeutics Inc, AVROBIO Inc, BeiGene Ltd, Clementia Pharmaceuticals Inc, DBV Technologies SA, Denali Therapeutics Inc, Editas Medicine, Evelo Biosciences Inc, Forty Seven Inc., Galapagos NV, Immunomedics Inc, Insmed Inc, Kodiak Sciences Inc, Neon Therapeutics Inc, Regenxbio Inc, Rhythm Pharmaceuticals Inc, Rubius Therapeutics Inc., SAGE Therapeutics Inc, Unity Biotechnology Inc., Unum Therapeutics Inc. Within the last 12 months, Morgan Stanley has received compensation for investment banking services from Akebia Therapeutics Inc, Amgen Inc., AVROBIO Inc, BeiGene Ltd, Biohaven Pharmaceutical Holding Company, Clementia Pharmaceuticals Inc, DBV Technologies SA, Denali Therapeutics Inc, Evelo Biosciences Inc, Forty Seven Inc., Gilead Sciences Inc., Immunomedics Inc, Insmed Inc, Kodiak Sciences Inc, Neon Therapeutics Inc, Regenxbio Inc, Rhythm Pharmaceuticals Inc, Rubius Therapeutics Inc., SAGE Therapeutics Inc, Unity Biotechnology Inc., Unum Therapeutics Inc, Zealand Pharma A/S. In the next 3 months, Morgan Stanley expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from Acceleron Pharma Inc, Akebia Therapeutics Inc, Alder Biopharmaceuticals Inc, Alexion Pharmaceuticals, Alnylam Pharmaceuticals Inc, Amgen Inc., AVROBIO Inc, BeiGene Ltd, Biogen Inc, Biohaven Pharmaceutical Holding Company, Biomarin Pharmaceutical Inc, Bluebird Bio Inc, Celgene Corp, Chimerix Inc, Clementia Pharmaceuticals Inc, Cytokinetics Inc, DBV Technologies SA, Denali Therapeutics Inc, Editas Medicine, Epizyme Inc, Evelo Biosciences Inc, Exelixis Inc., Forty Seven Inc., Galapagos NV, Gilead Sciences Inc., Global Blood Therapeutics Inc, ImmunoGen Inc., Immunomedics Inc, Incyte Corp, Innoviva Inc, Insmed Inc, Ionis Pharmaceuticals Inc, Ironwood Pharmaceuticals, Inc., Kodiak Sciences Inc, Loxo Oncology Inc, MacroGenics Inc, MyoKardia Inc, Nabriva Therapeutics PLC, Neon Therapeutics Inc, Neurocrine Biosciences Inc, Portola Pharmaceuticals Inc, Radius Health Inc, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc., Regenxbio Inc, Rhythm Pharmaceuticals Inc, Rubius Therapeutics Inc., SAGE Therapeutics Inc, Sarepta Therapeutics Inc, Syndax Pharmaceuticals Inc, Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc, Unity Biotechnology Inc., Unum Therapeutics Inc, Vertex Pharmaceuticals, Voyager Therapeutics Inc, Zealand Pharma A/S. Within the last 12 months, Morgan Stanley has received compensation for products and services other than investment banking services from Amgen Inc., Biogen Inc, Celgene Corp, DBV Technologies SA, Gilead Sciences Inc., Vertex Pharmaceuticals. Within the last 12 months, Morgan Stanley has provided or is providing investment banking services to, or has an investment banking client relationship with, the following company: Acceleron Pharma Inc, Akebia Therapeutics Inc, Alder Biopharmaceuticals Inc, Alexion Pharmaceuticals, Alnylam Pharmaceuticals Inc, Amgen Inc., AVROBIO Inc, BeiGene Ltd, Biogen Inc, Biohaven Pharmaceutical Holding Company, Biomarin Pharmaceutical Inc, Bluebird Bio Inc, Celgene Corp, Chimerix Inc, Clementia Pharmaceuticals Inc, Cytokinetics Inc, DBV Technologies SA, Denali Therapeutics Inc, Editas Medicine, Epizyme Inc, Evelo Biosciences Inc, Exelixis Inc., Forty Seven Inc., Galapagos NV, Gilead Sciences Inc., Global Blood Therapeutics Inc, ImmunoGen Inc., Immunomedics Inc, Incyte Corp, Innoviva Inc, Insmed Inc, Ionis Pharmaceuticals Inc, Ironwood Pharmaceuticals, Inc., Kodiak Sciences Inc, Loxo Oncology Inc, MacroGenics Inc, MyoKardia Inc, Nabriva Therapeutics PLC, Neon Therapeutics Inc, Neurocrine Biosciences Inc, Portola Pharmaceuticals Inc, Radius Health Inc, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc., Regenxbio Inc, Rhythm Pharmaceuticals Inc, Rubius Therapeutics Inc., SAGE Therapeutics Inc, Sarepta Therapeutics Inc, Syndax Pharmaceuticals Inc, Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc, Unity Biotechnology Inc., Unum Therapeutics Inc, Vertex Pharmaceuticals, Voyager Therapeutics Inc, Zealand Pharma A/S. Within the last 12 months, Morgan Stanley has either provided or is providing non-investment banking, securities-related services to and/or in the past has entered into an agreement to provide services or has a client relationship
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