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Ÿþc Rystal B All U Oracle® Crystal Ball Oracle® Crystal Ball Decision Optimizer Oracle® Crystal Ball Enterprise Performance Management Oracle® Crystal Ball Classroom Student Edition Oracle® Crystal Ball Classroom Faculty Edition Oracle® Crystal Ball Enterprise Performance Management for Oracle Hyperion Enterprise Planning Suite Oracle® Crystal Ball Suite User's Guide Release 11.1.2 Crystal Ball User's Guide, 11.1.2 Copyright © 1988, 2012, Oracle and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Authors: EPM Information Development Team Oracle and Java are registered trademarks of Oracle and/or its affiliates. Other names may be trademarks of their respective owners. This software and related documentation are provided under a license agreement containing restrictions on use and disclosure and are protected by intellectual property laws. Except as expressly permitted in your license agreement or allowed by law, you may not use, copy, reproduce, translate, broadcast, modify, license, transmit, distribute, exhibit, perform, publish, or display any part, in any form, or by any means. Reverse engineering, disassembly, or decompilation of this software, unless required by law for interoperability, is prohibited. The information contained herein is subject to change without notice and is not warranted to be error-free. If you find any errors, please report them to us in writing. If this is software or related documentation that is delivered to the U.S. Government or anyone licensing it on behalf of the U.S. Government, the following notice is applicable: U.S. GOVERNMENT RIGHTS: Programs, software, databases, and related documentation and technical data delivered to U.S. Government customers are "commercial computer software" or "commercial technical data" pursuant to the applicable Federal Acquisition Regulation and agency-specific supplemental regulations. As such, the use, duplication, disclosure, modification, and adaptation shall be subject to the restrictions and license terms set forth in the applicable Government contract, and, to the extent applicable by the terms of the Government contract, the additional rights set forth in FAR 52.227-19, Commercial Computer Software License (December 2007). Oracle America, Inc., 500 Oracle Parkway, Redwood City, CA 94065. This software or hardware is developed for general use in a variety of information management applications. It is not developed or intended for use in any inherently dangerous applications, including applications that may create a risk of personal injury. If you use this software or hardware in dangerous applications, then you shall be responsible to take all appropriate fail-safe, backup, redundancy, and other measures to ensure its safe use. Oracle Corporation and its affiliates disclaim any liability for any damages caused by use of this software or hardware in dangerous applications. This software or hardware and documentation may provide access to or information on content, products, and services from third parties. Oracle Corporation and its affiliates are not responsible for and expressly disclaim all warranties of any kind with respect to third-party content, products, and services. Oracle Corporation and its affiliates will not be responsible for any loss, costs, or damages incurred due to your access to or use of third-party content, products, or services. Contents Documentation Accessibility .......................................................... 11 Chapter 1. Welcome ................................................................ 13 Introduction ......................................................... 13 Who Should Use This Program ........................................... 14 What You Will Need ................................................... 14 About the Crystal Ball Documentation Set ................................... 14 Screen Capture Notes ............................................... 16 Getting Help ......................................................... 16 Technical Support and More ............................................. 16 Chapter 2. Crystal Ball Overview ....................................................... 17 About Model Building and Risk Analysis .................................... 17 Quantifying Risks with Spreadsheet Models ............................... 18 Monte Carlo Simulation and Crystal Ball ................................. 19 Crystal Ball Charts, Reports, and Data ...................................... 20 Crystal Ball Charts ................................................. 20 Reports ......................................................... 22 Data Extraction ................................................... 23 Other Crystal Ball Features .............................................. 24 Crystal Ball Tools .................................................. 24 Process Capability Features ........................................... 25 Trend Analysis with Predictor ......................................... 25 Goal Optimization with OptQuest ...................................... 25 Steps for Using Crystal Ball .............................................. 25 Starting and Closing Crystal Ball .......................................... 26 Starting Crystal Ball Manually ......................................... 26 Starting Crystal Ball Automatically ...................................... 26 Crystal Ball Welcome Screen .......................................... 26 Closing Crystal Ball ................................................. 27 Crystal Ball Menus, Toolbar, and Ribbon .................................... 28 Crystal Ball Menus in Microsoft Excel 2003 ............................... 28 Contents iii Crystal Ball Toolbar in Microsoft Excel 2003 ............................... 28 Crystal Ball Ribbon in Microsoft Excel 2007 or Later ......................... 29 Resources for Learning Crystal Ball ........................................ 31 Chapter 3. Defining Model Assumptions .................................................. 33 Introduction ......................................................... 33 Types of Data Cells .................................................... 33 About Assumptions and Probability Distributions ............................. 34 Defining Assumptions .................................................. 34 Entering Assumptions .................................................. 34 Additional Assumption Features .......................................... 37 Entering Cell References and Formulas .................................. 38 Alternate Parameter Sets ............................................. 39 Fitting Distributions to Data .......................................... 40 Specifying Correlations Between Assumptions ............................. 44 Setting Assumption Preferences ........................................ 47 Using the Crystal Ball Distribution Gallery ................................... 48 Displaying the Distribution Gallery ..................................... 48 Distribution Gallery Window ......................................... 48 Adding and Modifying User-defined Distributions in the Distribution Gallery ...... 51 Creating, Managing, and Sharing Categories ............................... 51 Chapter 4. Defining Other Model Elements ................................................ 53 Introduction ......................................................... 53 Defining Decision Variable Cells .......................................... 53 Defining Forecasts .................................................... 54 Setting Forecast Preferences ........................................... 55 Working with Crystal Ball Data ........................................... 59 Editing Crystal Ball Data ............................................. 59 Selecting and Reviewing Crystal Ball Data Cells ............................. 61 Setting Cell Preferences ................................................. 62 Saving and Restoring Models ............................................. 63 Compatibility and File Conversion Issues ................................. 63 Chapter 5. Running Simulations ........................................................ 65 About Crystal Ball Simulations ........................................... 65 Setting Run Preferences ................................................ 65 Setting Trials Preferences ............................................. 66 Setting Sampling Preferences .......................................... 67 Setting Speed Preferences ............................................ 67 iv Contents Setting Options Preferences ........................................... 69 Setting Statistics Preferences .......................................... 69 Freezing Crystal Ball Data Cells ........................................... 70 Running Simulations .................................................. 71 Starting Simulations ................................................ 71 Stopping and Continuing Simulations ................................... 71 Resetting Simulations ............................................... 72 Single-stepping Simulations ........................................... 72 Crystal Ball Control Panel ............................................ 72 Managing Chart Windows ............................................... 73 Saving and Restoring Simulation Results .................................... 74 Saving Crystal Ball Simulation Results ................................... 74 Restoring Crystal Ball Simulation Results ................................. 74 Using
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