SKEPTICISM . SCIENCE . SOCIETY

Vol 38, No 3. September 2018

TRUST? Regulators & Reviews

+UFOs, OBEs, EFT Gullibility & Numerology

Australian Skeptics . www.skeptics.com.au

Skeptic_Cover2_Sep18.indd 1 3/09/2018 9:38 pm The Skeptic September 18

Skeptical Groups in Australia NSW VIC Australian Skeptics Inc – Eran Segev Australian Skeptics (Vic) Inc – Chris Guest www.skeptics.com.au GPO Box 5166, Melbourne VIC 3001 PO Box 20, Beecroft, NSW 2119 Tel: 0403 837 339 [email protected] Tel: 02 8094 1894; Mob: 0432 713 195; Fax: (02) 8088 4735 [email protected] Skeptics’ Café – Third Monday of every month, with guest speaker. Clyde Hotel, cnr Elgin and Cardigan Sts, Carlton. Meal Sydney Skeptics in the Pub – 6pm first Thursday of each from 6pm, speaker at 8pm sharp.($4 contribution). More details month at the Occidental Hotel, York Street in the city, near on our web site www.skeptics.com.au/vic Wynyard Park (meeting second floor) Dinner meetings are held on a regular basis. Ballarat Skeptics in the Pub http://facebook.com/groups/3978112230309544 Hunter Skeptics – John Turner Tel: (02) 4959 6286 [email protected] Geelong Skeptics Society Occasional social meetings at the Cricketers Arms Hotel, Cooks Contact: James Rolton [email protected] Hill. Those on the contact list will be sent details in advance. Online group: See Facebook for details. Currently meeting at 12.30 on third Sunday of each odd-numbered Hosting the Annual Surf Coast Summer Skepticamp (February) month. Gippsland Skeptics in the Pub Blue Mountains Skeptics Interested parties contact Mark Guerin or Martin Christian Power See Facebook for details. via the Gippsland Skeptics page: https://www.facebook.com/gr oups/291929110900396/?ref=bookmarks Coffs Coast Skeptics & Freethinkers See Facebook for details. Melbourne Eastern Hills Skeptics in the Pub Contact: Andrew Rawlings [email protected] Tel: 0438 043 050 ACT hyyp://groupspaces.com/meh-sitp Canberra Skeptics – Lauren Kelly https://www.facebook.com/pages/Melbourne-Eastern-Hills PO Box 555, Civic Square ACT 2608 www.canberraskeptics.org.au Tel: 0410 382 306 Skeptics-in-the-Pub/19241290737690 [email protected] (general inquiries), Meets second Monday of each month at The Knox Club, [email protected] (Canberra Skeptics in the Pub). Wantirna South. A free monthly talk, open to the public - check website for details Skeptics in the Pub gather at 1pm on the third Sunday of each Melbourne Skeptics in the Pub month at King O’Malleys Pub in Civic. For up-to-date details: See Facebook for details. www.meetup.com/ SocialSkepticsCanberra/ Meets on the fourth Monday of every month from 6 pm at the Mt View Hotel in Richmond.

Mordi Skeptics in the Pub http://www.meetup.com/Mordi-Skeptics-in-the-Pub/ Meets at 7.30pm on the first Tuesday of each month at the Mordialloc Sporting Club. ($4 to cover website costs)

For details on Skeptical groups in other states and territories, see inside back cover Volume 38 • No 3 September 18 Contents FEATURES One Small Step 12 Ken McLeod 14 Prevention or Cure 14 12 Mal Vickers

Regulator’s Retreat 16 Ken McLeod 20 Googling for Good 20 Alexander Holden 22 Rating the Ratings 22 Adrian Camilerri 16

ARTICLES 28 Inconceivable 24 Trish Hann 36 Tapping on the Door 28 24 Mandy-Lee Noble

Seeing Myself 32 Susan Blackmore

Believe It or Not 36 Alessandra Teunisse Man Who Dated the World 38 38 Martin Bridgstock 48 It Just Don’t Add Up 42 Sir Jim R Wallaby 42 Over the Hills 48 Brian Dunning

REGULARS Editorial 4 Around the Traps 5 Open letter to the RSL 9 54 Them! 10 Logical place 15 Puzzles page 35 What goes around 52 Book reviews 54 Forum 57 Letters 60 Quotable Quotes 62 52 EDITORIAL

Winning ways he time is nigh for recognition psychics and shonky technologies Tof bad behaviour and good were regular recipients. But it would works, ie our portfolio of awards to be true to say that, of late, the awards be presented at the next Australian have taken a turn to the Dark Side, Skeptics ‘Skepticon’ convention (just a recognising those whose activities are few weeks away). not just preposterous or pifflous, but ISSN 0726-9897 There are number of positive awards problematic and perilous. There are Quarterly Journal of that recognise worthy effort by Skeptics those whose actions can bring about Australian Skeptics Inc and members of the public – the danger, damage and death, and this (ABN 90 613 095 379) Skeptic of the Year and the Thornett year’s candidates are no exception. Editor Award for the Promotion of Reason. Yes, there is the nomination of a new Tim Mendham We’re adding another such award this form of fin for surfboards, a conspiracy year, with the Barry Williams Award theorist’s ranty site, and even the ABC Editorial Board for Skeptical Journalism. The Thornett for cancelling The Checkout, one of Steve Roberts and Journslidm awards include a prize the few (if not the only) consumer Eran Segev of $2000. protection program on TV. Even in that Martin Hadley There’s another Skeptics award nomination there is a medical element, Design Services which we doubt anyone consciously for The Checkout regularly dealt with Nova Consulting P/L sets out to win. We mean, of course, shonky health products. the Bent Spoon award. It is given This year we also have two medical All correspondence to: to “the perpetrator of the most nominations that are firmly in the Australian Skeptics Inc preposterous piece of paranormal or dangerous arena: the Therapeutic PO Box 20 pseudoscientific piffle”. It has been Goods Administration and the Australia Beecroft NSW 2119 awarded every year since 1982, except Government (aim high or not at all) Australia for 1988, when apparently nothing for their endorsement of ridiculous Contact details really preposterous or pifflefull pseudomedicine concepts through a Tel: +61 (0)2 8094 1894 occurred. list of “permitted indications” , and Mob: +61 (0)432 713 195 Past winners represent a motley blogger Sarah Stevenson for claiming to Fax: +61 (0)2 8088 4735 crew of the credulous, the incredible have cured her pre-cancerous cervical and, in some cases, the insidious. dysplasia through simple healthy eating, [email protected] Pick which category you’d allocate lifestyle changes, and a touch of prayer. www.skeptics.com.au them to, but their ranks include anti- Both of these have the potential to vaccination luminaries Judy Wilyman convince those with serious medical The Skeptic is published four times (2016), Meryl Dorey and the AVN conditions to bypass proven treatments per year by Australian Skeptics Inc. (2009), and Vera Scheibner (1997); the in favour of ‘natural’ products and Views and opinions expressed in articles National Institute of Complementary ridiculous concepts. and letters in The Skeptic are those of Medicine (2017); Board There is still time to make a the authors, and are not necessarily and Chiropractic Association (2013); nomination for the 2018 Bent Spoon. those of Australian Skeptics Inc. Plus (2012); and the Just go to the nominations page on Articles may be reprinted with Complementary Healthcare Council the Skeptics’ website (skeptics.com.au/ permission and with due acknowledge- (2003). features/bent-spoon) and add to the ment to The Skeptic. If you notice a medical thread list of the preposterous and dangerous All effort is made to ensure correct running through that list, you’d already there. acknowledgement of all contributions. be right. Award-winning medical We look forward to seeing you at the We are happy to update credit when so misadventurers stretch back to 1985, gala dinner for Skepticon on October informed. when the Findhorn Festival Group won 13 when the winners of the various for sponsoring a visit by an American awards will be announced. Will your Editorial submission deadline psychic dentist. favourite get the gong? We’ll find out.. for the next issue: There have been other themes, October 31, 2018 especially in the early years when - Tim Mendham, editor 4 NEWS The Skeptic September 18 Around the traps ...

the HCCC following Bodnar’s promise Naturopath banned for life during the sentence hearing not to treat children in future. following baby’s near-death Ken McLeod, co-founder of SAVN, said “the HCCC was probably going AUS: Marilyn Bodnar, an “extreme to investigate anyway and they had diet” naturopath who was acquitted much help from the NSW Police. The of a manslaughter charge in 1987 Prohibition Order is harrowing reading when one of her clients starved when it gets to the suffering of the poor themselves to death on a water- child, so be warned.” only diet, has now been banned But he asks why the HCCC did not for life from “providing any health impose a Prohibition Order after the service in any capacity, either paid or first death? voluntary”. “The Commission is to be The Permanent Prohibition Order congratulated here for their response by the NSW Health Care Complaints to the danger to the health and safety Commission follows Bodnar’s of the NSW public, but we wonder conviction in April, with a 14-month why it takes the near death of a child jail sentence, for advising in 2015 to initiate action. There are thousands that the mother of an eight-month was good because it purged “the toxins of life-threatening cranks ‘treating’ the infant cease eating anything other that caused the eczema”. gullible all over Australia, and very than raw vegetables, fruit and seeds The mother finally took the child few are challenged by the health safety to cure her baby son’s eczema. to hospital, where it was found he was investigators. Actually, we know why; When the boy began a week-long only days from death, and may have health investigators such as the HCCC bout of vomiting, Bodnar apparently suffered severe developmental issues. are starved of resources and finance, so if told the mother to feed him some Bodnar was sentenced to a you want this to change, see your MP.” goat’s milk, but the boy vomited that minimum of eight months jail. (For more detail, see Ken McLeod’s up as well. Bodnar is alleged to have At this time, the Stop the AVN article “One Small Step” on page 12 of told the boy’s mother that vomiting organisation submitted a complaint to this issue.) .

Chiropractor deregistered over cancer cure ads SKEPTICS

AUS: A Sydney chiropractor who a regulated health service in February NEWSLETTER falsely claimed spinal manipulation last year and fined $29,500. The NSW We publish a fortnightly treatments could prevent and cure Civil and Administrative Tribunal cancer has had his registration to cancelled his registration, describing emailed newsletter with practise cancelled. Hance Limboro his actions as “calculated”, “unethical” the latest news, events was the first Australian to be and “predatory”. prosecuted by AHPRA It also prohibited him and weird things. It’s free, last year for misleading from providing any health and if you are currently advertising relating to service for two years. a series of articles on a Limboro had told the not subscribing, but want website called Cancer court that he did not think to keep up-to-date on the Cure Sydney. that using the word “cure” He was convicted of in the website’s name skeptical world, then go to 11 counts of false and would mislead the public http://tinyurl.com/jsuxg2o misleading advertising as the word also meant to sign up. and two counts of using “pickled”. . testimonials to advertise 5 23 NEWS

Biology students’ views on evolution have changed

AUS: Belief in creationism evidence for evolution. has dropped from 10% to 4% The results of the survey in the 30+ years of an ongoing of UNSW students survey of first year biology correlate with changes students at university. documented in the Thirty two years of census of the general continuous assessment reveal Australian public the students in Australia are suggesting that our rapidly abandoning beliefs in survey results of first-year theistic involvement in human biology students reflect origins. (The survey began overall changes in the the same year as Australian Skeptics Evolution: Education and Outreach last Australian community as a whole.” published our first book, Creationism: month. Lead author is Prof Mike Archer In a 1986 census of the general an Australian Perspective, which of UNSW; Archer received the Skeptic of Australian public, 75% of adults claimed debunked Creationist myths.) the Year award in 1998. a nominal identification with a religion, The results of the survey have The authors say that “The decline in mostly some form of Christianity demonstrated a downward shift over the Australian students’ commitment (73%). However, what proportion time from 60% of the class in 1986 to religious views about divine creation, adhered to the belief that humans were believing a god had something to do especially creationism, considerably created by god(s) was not assessed. with the origin of humans, to 29% exceeded the corresponding beliefs among Unlike the United States, debates in 2017. Conversely, the percentage American students and their general in Australia about the teaching of of students convinced that a god had public, where belief in creationism, evolutionary science in schools and the nothing to do with the origin of humans while slowly declining, appears to have injection of creationism into school rose from 25% in 1986 to 62% in 2017. remained in the 40% range, four times biology classes have not gained much The creationist belief that a god that seen in our Australian survey. public traction. The official biology created the world de novo within the “The very low and declining levels of curriculum for both state-based public last 10,000 years declined from 10% in commitment to the creationist view that schools and church-run schools in New 1986 to 3.6% in 2017. god created humans de novo suggests South Wales has consistently reflected The summary of the 30+ years of the this view is unlikely to be a significant conventional evolutionary science and survey was published in the journal, obstruction to accepting the scientific not creationism. .

Center for Inquiry sues homeopathy retailer company, CVS Health Corporation, ranked seventh on the Fortune 500 USA: The Center for Inquiry has and CVS knows it. Yet the company and 18th on the Fortune Global 500 filed a lawsuit against US drug retailer persists in deceiving its customers list in 2017, with US$177B in annual CVS for consumer fraud over its sale about the effectiveness of homeopathic revenue. . and marketing of “useless homeopathic products,” said Nicholas medicines”. Little, CFI’s vice CFI is an organisation devoted president and general to advancing reason and science, counsel. and is the parent group of the CVS Pharmacy is Centre for Skeptical Inquiry (CSI, one of the largest retail formerly CSICOP). It has accused pharmacy chains in the the country’s largest drug retailer of United States, with 9600 “deceiving consumers through its stores located in 49 states, misrepresentation of homeopathy’s the District of Columbia, safety and effectiveness, wasting and Puerto Rico. It fills customers’ money and putting their more than one of every health at risk”. five prescriptions in the “Homeopathy is a total sham, United States. Its parent 6 The Skeptic September 18

Skeptics’ award for critical thinking in journalism Reported UFO sightings on the decline AUS: Nominations are open for the latest addition to the USA: Reported UFO sightings have Australian Skeptics portfolio of been declining in the United States annual awards, with one for the for the last few years, according to the best piece of skeptical journalism. statistician tasked with making sense The Barry Williams Award for favour of the outer fringes of ‘woo’. My of all the data acquired by MUFON, Skeptical Journalism will recognise view is that we would certainly not be the leading civilian UFO investigation the best piece of journalism (in any rewarding a puff piece for either side of group. medium) that takes a critical and the argument – serious journalism only The organisation claims it receives skeptical approach to a topic that falls need apply.” about 7000 reports per month, within our remit, which is the scientific The Wallaby will complement the but numbers have been on a steady investigation of and the Skeptics’ other awards, which include decline since around 2012. paranormal. It will be awarded annually, the Bent Spoon, which goes to “the “There definitely has with a citation and $2000 prize. perpetrator of the most preposterous been a fall off of late,” A panel made up of experienced piece of paranormal piffle”, as well statistician David C. journalists across differing media has as the more positive Skeptic of the Korts told Gizmodo. “It been put together to review entries. Year and the Thornett Award for the hasn’t been a straight line. The award is named for the late Promotion of Reason. The latter goes But in looking at those numbers, it Barry Williams, past president and to a member of the public who may was a peak in 2012 and it’s been a executive officer of ASI who was a not have anything to do with the 30 to 40 per cent drop from 2012 to regular on Australian media. The . 2017.” award is nicknamed the “Wallaby”, in The prize amount for the Thornett While there are still hundreds memory of “Sir Jim R Wallaby”, the Award, previously set at $1000, will of reports each month, there are regular nom-de-plume Barry used for rise to $2000 in line with the media not many clear photos. MUFON his more whimsical editorial pieces. prize. executive director Jan Harzan said that Tim Mendham, executive officer The recipients of these awards will many UFO photos are blurry because of ASI and editor of The Skeptic, said be announced at the gala dinner for “UFOs are basically manipulating “We have given a similar award a few Skepticon, our annual convention, space-time. And when they do that, it times in the past, though the most which this year will be held in Sydney requires a high electromagnetic field. recent was back in 2010. on October 13-14. . That distorts the images.” . “We’re now calling for nominations for the Wallaby from skeptics, the public and the media – journalists can nominate their own work. It would nominally be given for one piece or Heatwave causes spike in UK ghostly activity a series, used in print, TV, radio, or online, produced in Australia, and published or broadcast during 2018.” UK: A ghost hunter says that there Nominations should be sent to has been a “major spike” in calls the editor of The Skeptic at editor@ he has been receiving over the past skeptics.com.au or send hard copies couple of months as the UK enjoys to Australian Skeptics, PO Box 20, unusual summer heat. He told The Beecroft NSW 2119. Deadline is Sun newspaper that the spectral October 1, 2018. beings are “summoned” to the He said that a key issue would country by the searing weather that be the nature of a “skeptical” piece had been gripping the nation. He also of journalism: “Should it take a said some people who have contacted debunking stance, or a more general him have said they are afraid to enter critical thinking approach? Personally their own homes. I would prefer the second – the piece It has been suggested that air takes a critical investigative approach to conditioning might be a solution - the topic, though I must admit I might the chill wind of reason to dispel the have concerns if a piece came down in supernatural. . 7 23 NEWS

Cochrane negative review of omega-3

UK/AUS: A Cochrane review of cholesterol. Omega-3 fats are readily research into the health effects of omega-3 available as over-the-counter supplements has been attacked by a board member and they are widely bought and used. of the National Heart Foundation and In a rebuttal published on supplement by supplements company Blackmores as company Blackmores’ site, this dose effects (if EPA and DHA work you “fake science”. But that attack has now negative conclusion was questioned by would expect greater effects where greater itself been rebutted by the lead author Associate Professor David Colquhoun, doses were used),” she said. “Perhaps Prof of the review, who outlines the errors board member of the National Heart Colquhoun has not read our review – and misunderstandings in Blackmores’ Foundation of Australia (NHFA), a many trials provided over 1g (1000mg) response, even suggesting they may not member of the Scientific Committee of of EPA and DHA per day. Nine trials have read the original review. the National Institute of Complementary provided over 2400mg/day (of which The review concludes that taking long- Medicine, and co-president of the Clinical two provided more than 4400mg/d). chain omega-3 (fish oil, EPA or DHA) and Preventive Cardiology Council of the There was no dose effect – we did not see supplements does not benefit heart health Cardiac Society of Australian and New different (or any) effects when doses were or reduce the risk of stroke or death from Zealand. He claimed there were some higher compared to studies where doses any cause. “The most trustworthy studies fundamental flaws in the study. were lower. There were no more effect consistently showed little or no effect of “Firstly, the highest dose used in the in high dose studies than in low dose long-chain omega-3 fats on cardiovascular trials reviewed is 1000mg. This is an issue studies.” health. On the other hand, while oily because for 1000mg of active EPA+DHA Hooper ended her rebuttal of fish is a healthy food, it is unclear from from fish oil ingested, one only sees about Blackmores/Colquhoun by citing the the small number of trials whether eating 50 per cent increase into the safe zone of conclusions from the review itself: “This is more oily fish is protective of our hearts.” the omega-3 index score (ie greater than the most extensive systematic assessment The review, published in July, combined 8 per cent) and if 500mg is used you are of effects of omega-3 fats on cardiovascular the results of 79 randomised trials only going to see about 10 per cent of health to date. Moderate and high-quality involving 112,059 people. Twenty-five people taking that dose ‘get over the line’ evidence suggests that increasing EPA and studies were assessed as highly trustworthy – if there is 100 per cent compliance.” DHA has little or no effect on mortality because they were well-designed and But this is not true of the review, and or cardiovascular health (evidence conducted. this specific response and others have mainly from supplement trials). Previous Increased consumption of omega-3 fats been soundly rebutted by Dr Lee Hooper, suggestions of benefits from EPA and is widely promoted globally because of reader in Research Synthesis, Nutrition DHA supplements appear to spring from a common belief that that it will protect and Hydration, University of East Anglia, trials with higher risk of bias.” against heart disease. There is more than and co-author of the report. She suggested A report of Dr Hooper’s responses one possible mechanism for how they that Colquhoun may not have actually can be found on the Australian Skeptics’ might help prevent heart disease, including read the review. website (tinyurl.com/ycwbmvfg).. reducing blood pressure or reducing “In the review we looked very hard for

Loch Ness Monster ‘not encountered’

UK: An international research team “While they did not come face to says it did not encounter the Loch Ness face with Nessie, they suggest there may Monster while testing samples of water be a ‘biological explanation’ for her,” a from the famous loch. BBC News report says, The team (pictured left) consisted Regardless of what is meant by a of researchers from the Universities of “biological explanation”, the researchers Otago in New Zealand, Copenhagen, hope to get some idea of the general Hull in England, and the Highlands and range of life forms in the loch, including Islands in Scotland. They took water invasive species like Pacific salmon. samples at various depths throughout Results of the project, perhaps the loch, collecting all forms of DNA including new species of bacteria, are present in the water for further analysis. expected in early 2019. . 8 Let the Dead Rest In Peace

An Open Letter to the RSL

hrough its clubs, the Returned Services League commemorates Tour servicemen and women, including some who made the ultimate sacrifice. We are concerned that those clubs are occasionally used for a form of entertainment that is disrespectful to the departed, and to their relatives and friends.

For many years RSL clubs have hosted performances by so-called “psychics” or “clairvoyants” who purport to make contact with the spirit world and to relay messages between audience members and deceased relatives or friends. If these performances were described as “for entertainment purposes only”, then there would be less objection. But they are described by “psychics” as actual contact with the dead, with all of the intense and potentially distressing personal and emotional impact that that entails. Such performers have been thoroughly investigated by experts over a long period. The performers use the time-honoured technique of “cold reading”*, which is well known to specialist magicians known as mentalists. The psychics are not communicating with spirits - they are performing a trick, though in a context that we suggest is highly distasteful. People need to work through their grief when a loved one has passed away. It cheapens the memory of any deceased person to use their name for entertainment. It is completely out of order when the deceased person had served their country and when the performance occurs in a building dedicated to the memory of the fallen. We therefore call upon the RSL and its clubs to stop hosting this exploitative and disrespectful form of ‘entertainment’.

Australian Skeptics Inc Vic Skeptics Queensland Skeptics Gold Coast Skeptics Hobart Skeptics WA Skeptics

* See “Guide to Cold Reading” by Ray Hyman, https://www.skeptics.com.au/resources/articles/guide-to-cold-reading-ray-hyman/ THEM Readers’ indigestible Tim Mendham looks at those ‘other’ publications, where skepticism is just a dirty word.

his issue, we look at a website and a panoply of some of the weirdest and Tmost eccentric characters you’re ever likely to come across. The site looks at a classic conspiracy - chemtrails. But the people and their history involve some greater dangers - accountancy, Christian radio, septic tanks, and bubonic plague. Read on.

Earth movers

If you happen to be in Sydney’s Hills “How much longer can our district, you might have noticed a government continue to hide the sign nailed to a telegraph pole beside global climate engineering assault one of the city’s busiest main raids. It in plain sight? How much longer boldly announces the destruction off will populations continue to blindly all life on Earth. This might be a bit accept the official government geoengineering (the massive military of a concern if you happen to be stuck narrative of lies and denial in regard of the US is unarguably the largest in traffic reading the sign – how are to the clearly visible and rationally participant).” you going to get home to the family if undeniable ongoing geoengineering That last bit gives away that this is you’re suddenly taken off to the Other operations? How is it possible for an American site, which is impressive Place? But you need to be stuck in the power structure to create and that the organisation’s reach extends traffic to read the sign, as it’s in such maintain the official denial of fully to telegraph poles in outer Sydney. small print that you’re likely to cause a deployed climate intervention Their fight is based around the Legal major accident if you take your eyes off programs? By completely controlling Alliance to Stop Geoengineering, the road and strain to see what it’s all the flow of information, including the which is part of a campaign to get about. And that might cause the end weather forecasts themselves.” all the incriminating documentation of all life on Earth, or at least that little You might have noticed a few from government agencies such as the section of it. logical inconsistences in this claim. National Oceanic and Atmospheric It is, of course, all about For a start, how can you hide the Administration (NOAA). Another geoengineering, and the sign global climate engineering assault player in this campaign is Stop points you to a website, www. in plain sight? It might be because Geoengineering Minnesota. Why geoengineeringwatch.org, and if you populations are blind to what is Minnesota is anyone’s guess, read that lengthy URL as you whizz clearly visible. especially as Geoengineeringwatch past then you’re definitely going to By clearly visible they mean is headquartered in Bella Vista, cause an accident. chemtrails, which involve “jet aircraft California. (As a strange irony, the sign But the threats that the sign – and spraying of atmospheric aerosol on the pole is not that far, as the crow the site – warn against are no accident. particulates. These elements are then flies, from the Sydney suburb of Bella “Geoengineering is the artificial manipulated with powerful ground Vista. Coincidence? We think not.) modification of Earth’s climate systems based radio frequency/microwave The website is very busy – generally through two primary ideologies, Solar transmissions.” professional, but with lots and lots of Radiation Management (SRM) and “Available evidence,” the site little ads either side of the main text Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR).” continues, “makes clear governments promoting videos clips, merchandise Naturally, this all the work of the around the globe are cooperating on (DVD and book – there is only one), government and the public are being climate engineering operations due flyer (above; and again, there only taken for mugs: to the cross-border ramifications of seems to be one, which is similar to the

10 The Skeptic September 18

more movers The person behind Geoengineering- “work in progress” by Jay Reynolds watch is Dane Wigington, who “has (goodsky.homestead.com/files/ a background in solar ”. As evolution.html). This work was his website says, “He is a former begun in 2000, and it doesn’t have employee of Bechtel Power Corp. and much that comes after Thomas, was a licensed contractor in California but it does include such people and Arizona.” What the website as Bill Brumbaugh, an evangelist doesn’t say is that his background is as whom Reynolds think was the first a solar panel installer, so his unstated to propose that contrails are “other scientific credentials are just that – than normal”. Brumbaugh told sign on the pole), and lots of links to unstated, and possibly non-existent. Reynolds that, with an associate Rick other information. Befitting the catastrophic nature Flores, he took a sample of jet fuel The usual culprits are blasted, of the conspiracies he promotes, he in 1996. (Reynolds seems to be not HAARP featuring prominently. never seems to smile – the photo sure that Flores exists, at least under The High Frequency Active Auroral on the back cover of his book, that name, as he regularly puts his Research Program was initiated by Geoengineering: A chronicle of name in quotes.) Unfortunately the the US Air Force, the US Navy, the indictment, is of a man who seems to person Brumbaugh got to analyse University of Alaska Fairbanks, and be very worried and angry. his sample was Larry Wayne Harris, the Defense Advanced Research Fair enough. We are talking about someone that Brumbaugh describes Projects Agency - evil geoengineer- the end of all life on Earth, so you as “not credible in regard to his ing organisations hiding in plain could hardly expect him to have a statements about the longevity sight if ever there were some. cheery grin. And he’s not alone. of his employment by the CIA, Other culprits include the One of the oft-cited early and his claim of being a licensed “criminals” behind the Fukushima promoters of the chemtrail conspiracy microbiologist from 1984-1993 is nuclear power plant. The government was William Thomas, “journalist, false, and not even close”. cover-up on what is really going on author, videographer”, whose 1999 He was actually a septic tank and there is covered in a three-part article, article “Contrails: Poison from the water well inspector. which kicks off with the curious Sky”, connected contrails to chemical During 1997, Harris allied himself description of Japan as “an exotic spraying, although the article didn’t with Finke, who at that stage was exo-planet, where the smile-masked use the term “chemtrails”. calling himself “Righteous Dude”. In bowing inhabitants speak a nuanced In 2000, a number of US April of 1997, Harris was sentenced alien tongue and, if you stay long agencies – the Environmental to probation for wire fraud for his enough and are a respectful gaijin, Protection Agency, the Federal fraudulent ordering of the Bubonic a dolphin-eyed woman with thick Aviation Administration, NASA Plague bacteria yersinia pestis. raven hair and the inherited grace and NOAA – jointly responded to A mixed bunch indeed. of a geisha may show you the secrets the claims, attempting to dispel the There is an Australian connection of kimono”. rumours. Naturally, this was all part to this. One of Thomas’s claims was There is something decidedly of the government cover-up. The that dozens of residents of Quirindi, unpleasant about those words – EPA refreshed its posting in 2015, Australia swore they saw “cobwebs inherently patronising and overtly indicating that chemtrail conspiracy fall from the sky” after unidentified racist. But logic and restraint are not theories have not dispersed. aircraft passed overhead. The local hallmarks of such sites. For a start, Richard Lew Finke, of Rushville, UFO community put that down to why would anyone want to destroy Ohio, was another pioneer of the “angel hair”, which is dispersed by all life on Earth? Who’s left to benefit chemtrails conspiracy. A bookkeeper alien craft. The same product has from such self-destructive action? and accountant by trade, he also ran been reported at sightings of the But that’s part of the conspiracy. his own Christian radio station. Virgin Mary, including Fatima. And thank heavens that An interesting history of the So much for government Geoengineeringwatch is there to controversy, where participants conspiracies; it goes to the very top - keep us alert and worried. . pre-date Thomas, can be found in a aliens and God are to blame. .

11 FEATURE Regulators

Ken McLeod acknowledges that sometimes the regulator gets it right … eventually … but it takes a near-tragedy to make it happen.

arilyn Bodnar is the Bodnar’s 1988 case was Mnaturopath crank and darling the prosecution of a nurse for of the antivaxxers1 who got off a manslaughter by omission and related manslaughter charge in 1988 after to the duty of a nurse and the the death of a client who was using professional relationship between her water-only diet. Bodnar and Niemann3. During Marilyn Bodnar, naturopath, Narelle Francis Nieman died the trial “counsel for Bodnar banned and jailed. because of the 63-day water diet argued it was not a crime to Bodnar (at that time a Registered commit suicide and there was death? The answer to that Nurse) put her on. The evidence given no duty on anyone, nurse or is lost in the mists of time, at Bodnar’s 1987 trial was horrific. otherwise, to stop them from doing but a great opportunity to prevent The Saturday Telegraph reported that so”.4 further harm was lost. “mother-of-two Narelle Niemann, 42, Apparently, there was no legislation Now we come to 2009 and we turn … died on day 63 of a water-only diet to cover this circumstance and lawyers to our old favourite, the Australian to rid her body of toxins before having had delved through 200 years of court Vaccination Network, now the another child. Ms Niemann lost 35 cases worldwide for a legal precedent Australian Vaccination-risks Network. per cent of her body weight, dropping and drew a blank5.We suppose In 2009 SAVN submitted a complaint from 60kg to 39kg while staying at then that this is what lawyers call a to the HCCC regarding the antivax Bodnar’s home at Heckenberg in “loophole”. antics of the AVN. That led to the Sydney’s southwest. She was so weak To ruminate on this case, we ask HCCC issuing a Public Warning in the last few days she had to crawl on why did the HCCC not impose a about the AVN. After a challenge led her hands and knees to use the toilet.”2 Prohibition Order after Nieman’s by Meryl Dorey of the AVN, in 2012 12 The Skeptic September 18

the NSW Supreme Court Commission making those points know why; health investigators such overturned the decision of and asking for a Prohibition as the HCCC are starved of resources the HCCC, because at the Order10.The Commission had and finance and lack support from time, a complaint had to come from already begun an investigation and the their political masters. an aggrieved patient to be valid, and result of all of that is the Prohibition As a postscript, His Honour neither we nor the HCCC were that 6. Order against Bodnar. Thus, we have Judge P G Berman SC said in his In remarkable time, in 2013 Ms Dorey to thank for the changes sentencing decision something to the NSW government amended to the Act and Bodnar’s Prohibition gladden the heart of all Skeptics: the Health Care Complaints Act Order. How sweet it is. “Those who purport to be qualified to allow the HCCC to investigate The HCCC ordered: “Ms Bodnar to give medical advice, whether complaints from anyone, not only is permanently prohibited from doctors or not, have an obligation aggrieved patients7. Further, the new providing any health service in any to provide advice which is based legislation allowed the Commissioner capacity, either paid or voluntary. on proved results, not merely fake to instigate investigations on his/her For the purpose of this order, ‘health science and faith.”12 own initiative. This could lead to the service’ is given the meaning as defined Sweeter still. . Commissioner issuing under section 4 of Prohibition Orders and the Health Care REFERENCES Public Warnings in their We wonder why Complaints Act.” 1. See Reasonable Hank’s article on an own right. “ That’s quite a antivax demo in 2015 and scroll down So there was a new it takes the near step up from bail for mentions: tinyurl.com/yapfwbsz investigation and conditions set by 2. “Naturopath Put Mum On Extreme Diet, death of a child to Causing Her Baby To Starve” Sarah the Public Warning the Courts which initiate action. Crawford, Sunday Telegraph, August 25, about the AVN was ” were that she 2017 republished in double- “must not under 3. The case, including the judge’s quick time. any circumstances directions to the jury, is described at And we have Ms Dorey to thank treat any child under the age of 16 tinyurl.com/yccb8jqj for the changes to the Act and the years in the capacity of a nature 4. tinyurl.com/ycx9cduv HCCC’s power to issue Prohibition cure naturopath, live blood analysis, 5. Sydney Morning Herald, August 9, 1988. Orders against dangerous cranks nutrition and lifestyle coach, 6. Australian Vaccination Network Inc v like Bodnar without waiting for a massage, Bowen therapy, Health Care Complaints Commission complaint from an aggrieved patient. Emmett muscle release, sports injury [2012] NSWSC 110 (24 February 2012) therapist, exercise therapist, steam, 7. tinyurl.com/y95c9uzo THE LATEST CASE 8. Bodnar’s history and the Judges sauna and hydrotherapy treatments, sentencing report are at tinyurl.com/ Fast forward to 2018 and now Bodnar thought field therapist and whole ycfvklzm is a guest of Her Majesty in the NSW bread making and vegetarian/foods 9. see Ref 2 Prison system for nearly causing the instructor. She must not advise any 10. inyurl.com/ycftdnc3 8 death of a child [see the news story parents who have children under that 11. tinyurl.com/y88m5udl this issue]. But even after pleading age of 16 years for any of the above 12. see Ref 8 guilty, Bodnar continued to defend treatments.” her methods. “If you do your research, We can’t take much of the credit: you will find many benefits of fasting the HCCC was probably going to do on the internet,” she told the Daily that anyway and it had extensive help Telegraph9. At her sentencing hearing, from the NSW Police. The Prohibition in an appeal for a light sentence, she Order is harrowing reading when it About the author: promised not to treat children any gets to the suffering of the poor child, Ken McLeod is co- more, but continued to advertise so be warned 11. founder of Stop the AVN seminars on her website and claimed The Commission is to be that she specialises in “parents and congratulated here for its response to children’s health and infertility”. the danger to the health and safety of That alarmed us because her the NSW public, but we wonder why sentencing submission left her open to it takes the near death of a child to treat adults and her advertising showed initiate action. There are thousands of that her assurance that she would not life-threatening cranks ‘treating’ the treat children was worthless. gullible all over Australia, and very So, we submitted a complaint to few are challenged by the health the NSW Health Care Complaints safety investigators. Actually, we 0313 FEATURE Regulators

Prevention or Cure Mal Vickers looks into the Victorian HCC and the treatment of

he risks associated with the use Tof black salve are obvious. It’s a highly caustic substance; when applied to the skin it burns holes in human flesh regardless of whether it is healthy or unhealthy. However, to alternative health practitioners, particularly those at the extreme end of the spectrum, black salve is a wonderful, natural, anti-cancer treatment. A warning to readers, do not use Google to look for of ovarian cancer and decided to Jill Hennessy spoke in State Parliament images using the search term “black accept treatment away from the about the introduction of a new salve” - it’s one of the most confronting hospital system she knew. A cancer health regulator - the Victorian Health and horrifying things you can do to diagnosis can be life threatening and Complaints Commissioner (HCC). yourself. See the references to find the evidence-based medicine can only Hennessy said: “The capacity for typical ingredients of black salve1 and achieve so much at this stage. Where third party complaints means that the official public warnings from the ovarian cancer is detected early, has family members, health service staff FDA2 and the TGA3. Yet, despite the not spread beyond the ovaries, and that have concerns, or members of the obvious, when people are desperate women are younger than 65 years public who think something is not for a cure and when the public ignores of age, effective evidence-based quite right, can bring their concerns reason, people can be convinced to use treatment can give a five-year survival to the attention of the commissioner.” black salve. rate of 92 per cent4. Those of us who are interested On the 14 May, 2018 the Victorian Helen Lawson unfortunately died in the practices of shonky health Health Complaints Commissioner at age 50 in circumstances so horrific practitioners in Victoria were pleased announced there was going to be an I can’t bring myself to write the and relieved to hear this. Finally, investigation of Dennis Wayne Jensen, details. The Age newspaper provided Victoria was introducing legislation a hypnotherapist from Warrandyte, a detailed description if you wish to and a new regulator who will be pro- Melbourne. Jensen had repeatedly know5. active and accept complaints from applied black salve to nurse Helen In February 2016, Victorians felt anyone in the public. Sadly, it wasn’t Lawson. Lawson received a diagnosis justly satisfied when Health Minister quite the full story. The investigation 14 The Skeptic September 18

The impacts of Black Salve the Logical Place are dramatic, if not deadly. The Why anti-vaxxers images of Helen get it so wrong Lawson’s injuries he inability to accurately appraise (not shown) are Tone’s own knowledge is a normally pixel- cognitive bias known as the Dunning- lated because Kruger effect, first identified in social of their horrific psychology experiments conducted nature. in 1999. Dunning-Kruger effects occur when individuals’ lack of knowledge about a particular subject leads them of Dennis Wayne Jensen highlights the the community. Regardless of the to inaccurately gauge their expertise problem - it began after Helen Lawson complaints about the ‘nanny state’, on that subject. Ignorance of one’s passed away. the preferred measurable outcomes own ignorance can lead people who I know of one complaint made to do eventuate, less suffering and death lack knowledge on a subject think of the Vic HCC in early 2017 about an from preventable causes. alternative health practitioner (not The NSW Health Care Complaints themselves as more expert than those Jensen), who was openly advertising Commission (HCCC) appears to be who are better informed. treatment of cancer patients with ahead of the game. They have acted A recent study (cf The Conversation black salve. (Name undisclosed due pro-actively against the AVN when - tinyurl.com/y92shkla) demonstrated to ongoing investigation.) Despite complaints have been lodged about that at least some anti-vaccination the obvious danger to the public the spread of misinformation about views exemplify the Dunning-Kruger and despite the provisions of the Vic vaccination. By doing so, the HCCC effect. It found that 71% of those who Health Complaints Act which deals has saved uncounted lives. There was strongly endorse misinformation about with misleading advertising, the Vic also a degree of early action in relation the link between HCC decided that, as no person was to the Marilyn Bodnar case (see details feel that they know as much or more identified as having been harmed in this issue). than medical experts about the causes through the advertising of black salve, My message to activists in Victoria of autism, compared to only 28% who no action would be taken. is to keep complaining to the HCC. most strongly reject that misinformation. We can’t say that Helen Lawson My message to the Vic HCC - The researchers found that 30 % would still be alive if the Vic HCC consider being pro-active like the of people who think that they know had acted in relation to the advertising NSW HCCC; it will save lives. more than medical experts strongly of black salve in early 2017. Recently, Get your Act together, prevention is support giving parents the latitude to (8 August 2018) the Vic HCC better than cure. . not vaccinate their children. By contrast, issued a permanent prohibition order 16 per cent of those who do not think against Jensen, effectively ending his that they know more than medical career in any kind of health practice. REFERENCES professionals felt the same way. The prohibition order states: “It is 1. Typical ingredients of black salve: The study also found that people necessary to make this Prohibition -https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_ who think they know more than Order to avoid a serious risk to the salve medical experts are more likely to 2. Official FDA warning – Health fraud health, safety or welfare of the public.” trust information about vaccines from awareness: https://tinyurl.com/ycecwetq Sadly, the damage had already been 3. Official TGA warning – Black salve: non-expert sources, such as celebrities. done. https://tinyurl.com/y8eo2uxt These individuals are also more likely The question of when to act is 4. https://tinyurl.com/y9jmwczr to support a strong role for non-experts essentially: How many people should 5. https://tinyurl.com/y9su5bow in the process of making policies about be harmed or die before we decide? vaccines and vaccination. Being pro-active about public health While these findings may not come as issues takes a lot of effort, I’m referring a surprise to seasoned skeptics, we now broadly to cigarette smoking, gun have empirical evidence to explain why control, seat belts in cars, pool fences at least some anti-vaccination views are etc, etc. While reducing people’s access About the author: so irrational. Mal Vickers is an to cigarettes and guns will inevitably - by Tim Harding produce public backlash, governments independent public health should still do it for the benefit of researcher. 15 FEATURE Regulators

the Regulator’s Retreat

Ken McLeod on the anti-vax “expert witness”, and asks why the HCCC considers four-year-old online warnings about the wrong organisation are effective.

e at SAVN were always by a communique2 issued by the work? The NSW HCCC had issued a Wrather disappointed that the Council Of Australian Government Public Warning against the Australian government instrumentalities charged Health Ministers in which Australia’s Vaccination Network (originally the with protecting the health of the Commonwealth, State and Territory Vaccination Awareness Network, later Australian public are rather timid. Our Health Ministers said “Vaccination: changed to Australian Vaccination- many hundreds of complaints have Health Ministers unanimously skeptics Network and most recently rarely resulted in firm action, usually just confirmed the importance of vaccination the Australian Vaccination-risks a caution issued against the practitioner and rejected campaigns against Network). Who should we report next? if we are lucky. vaccination.” It seemed obvious, Judy Wilyman. So we were rather chuffed when, All of that had been preceded by In 2016 she was the winner of the in April 2017, the Commonwealth the 2014 NSW Parliamentary Inquiry Australian Skeptics’ Bent Spoon Award Minister for Health Greg Hunt issued into “False and Misleading Health- for her execrable antivax thesis and her a statement titled “New campaign Related Information and Practices”. extensive and eccentric campaign against to encourage further childhood This recommended that “NSW Health, vaccination. vaccination”1 in which he said “The in conjunction with the Health Care three-year campaign will specifically Complaints Commission, undertake THE WILYMAN CASE target areas of low vaccination rates by accessible education initiatives and In 2017, Wilyman acted as an “expert addressing myths and misconceptions, awareness campaigns to provide witness” in a Family Court case in while explaining the benefits of information to counteract misleading Brisbane. The case involved the father, childhood vaccinations for both the claims about mainstream healthcare now separated from his wife, wanting to individual and the community.” practices.”3 have their two teenage daughters given He added: “Public support for To us, this signaled a change in the HPV and flu vaccines. According immunisation is high, but some parents bureaucracy - here was a clear indication Facebook posts by the wife and her continue to have concerns about the that the health regulators, prodded by mother, the wife “paid for a research safety of vaccines.” And “pockets of low their Ministers, would take a tougher scientist at University of Wollongong coverage pose risks to the community, line with antivax cranks who spread to be an expert witness in her case. Judy especially people who cannot be misinformation, fear, uncertainty and Wilyman PhD.” The wife claimed the immunised because they are too young doubt. Clearly our future work would children were “anaphylactic to eggs”. or for medical reasons”. not be in vain. Wilyman apparently made specific That was followed in August 2017 So where to begin our future clinical recommendations against 16 The Skeptic September 18

vaccination. Such recommendations are social policy, and the facts, but her the science, and misrepresented well outside her area of alleged expertise qualifications and presentation are vaccination schedules and government on vaccinations. Her PhD is from persuasive to the general public and vaccination policies, so her role as an the School of Humanities and Social vulnerable people. expert witness is problematic. Inquiry at the University, not a medical • Wilyman has no understanding of Of course we thought that department. regulatory authorities’ governance, the HCCC, presented with the Apparently the court was impressed board and committee membership, overwhelming evidence, would begin by her claim that she “is a university decision-making processes, financing, an investigation. But the prodding from academic and presents research on and policy development. In her all those Health Ministers counted behalf of the University of Wollongong” ignorance she assigns unsubstantiated not a whit. The HCCC declined to and her use of the honorific ‘Dr’. conspiracy theories to explain their investigate, because: ‘In order to address Wilyman advised the court that the decisions. this complaint, the children should not be vaccinated with • Wilyman misrepresents Despite her lack commission notified the Flu vaccine and the HPV vaccine her studies as “scientific “ Mrs Wilyman and Gardasil because of alleged allergies to research”’ , claims to of appropriate requested a response eggs. However, eggs are not used in be an academic while qualifications, the to the issues you the production of HPV vaccines and being only a student, raised. Mrs Wilyman persons with egg allergy, including and falsely claims Court accepted her advises that she is anaphylaxis, can be safely vaccinated that the University of evidence. not a health service with influenza vaccines. Despite her Wollongong supports ” provider in NSW, she lack of appropriate qualifications and her research findings. is a university academic expertise, the Family Court accepted her • Wilyman’s PhD thesis is full of and presents research on behalf of the evidence and ruled against vaccinating misrepresentations, hyperbole, and University of Wollongong. She advises the children in question with the Flu conspiracy theories, and is used by that if you have any concerns you should and HPV vaccines. Wilyman to boost the credibility of contact the University.” We assembled a lengthy complaint her criticisms of vaccines, vaccination We thought that was bollocks. to the NSW HCCC, in which we policies, regulatory authorities, and Protests from us and several prominent demonstrated in excruciating detail that: the related science. people were sent to the Commission, • Wilyman is probably Australia’s And she does this all deliberately; saying that the Commission erred in not most prominent antivaccination these are not innocent mistakes. recognising as false Wilyman’s claims not campaigner, publishing widely in But wait! There’s more! As the to be a “health educator” and accepting many forums, engaging in public Facebook posts say, Wilyman has been her claims to be “a university academic speaking in street protests and public presented to court as an “expert witness” and presents research on behalf of the seminars, making submissions to regarding the science of vaccination. University of Wollongong”. Parliament; This is a misrepresentation of her That worked, sort of. Eventually • Wilyman is significantly active in qualifications and experience. In the the Commission responded that NSW and admits to providing a past, she has regularly misrepresented they “determined that Ms Wilyman health ‘education’ service. She is therefore a “health practitioner” providing a “health service” as defined in the Act, and so falls within the jurisdiction of the NSW Health Care Complaints Commission and the Act. • Wilyman’s claims concerning vaccines, vaccination policies, regulatory authorities, cover-ups and conspiracies are unsubstantiated and demonstrably wrong. She engages in widespread misrepresentation, hyperbole, conspiracy theories, and selective ignorance. Her allegations do not conform to mainstream science,

Judy Wilyman at an anti-vaccination rally in Sydney’s Martin Place, in September 2017 17 FEATURE Regulators

The Regulator’s All of this countervailing commentary to speak to a medical practitioner in is easily available via an internet search order to make an informed decision on retreat and expressed in very accessible terms.” the subject of vaccination.” Continued... It goes on: “The NSW Ministry So, the Commission doesn’t have to of Health, together with the issue a Public Warning because there’s Commonwealth Department of lots of information out there countering Health, play a key role in educating Wilyman’s and they issued a warning is providing a health service as an the public of New South Wales on four years ago about the AVN anyway. unregistered health practitioner and immunisation programs, including as such, the Commission is able to the myths and realities about ACCESSING INFORMATION deal with the complaint under section vaccine safety and efficacy. There are To us, this shows a stunning seven of the Act. The review has extensive public health education misunderstanding of how hesitant and therefore triggered reassessment of the and information programs (indeed a curious people obtain information complaint.” nationwide government campaign), about vaccination. So far, so good. But in the leadup to explaining the benefits and availability Firstly, Wilyman has nothing to their final decision, the Commission of immunisation to support decision do with the AVN, so a warning about made some strange statements, such making by consumers.” the AVN will not impact upon their as: “There is a wealth of countervailing And strangest of all, “The consciousness nor in Google searches. opinion [to Wilyman’s], research Commission has previously issued a Next, the HCCC should be aware, and education resources – formal Public Warning and accompanying but evidently is not, that hesitant and informal” from “a number of Public Statement concerning the people using search engines might highly respected academics, medical Australian Vaccination-skeptics not find publications from experts, no practitioners and organisations” who Network, Inc (‘AVN’) in April 2014 matter how prominent. Searches have have “presented strident rebuttals of and this public warning remains in confirmation biases, both that of the the points raised by Ms Wilyman and force. This warning includes advice search engine and that of the searcher. denouncing her research and public on anti-vaccination commentary and Studies show that on social media, we comments on the subject of vaccination. reminds health consumers of the need are much more likely to seek out views that converge with our own. According to a study commissioned by the Wall St Journal, Google’s algorithms favour web TGA New Regime – Low Priority sites with text that most exactly matches the query; as a result, the researchers n February 3, 2018, in preparation for a new era at the Therapeutic Goods found that the extracted text was more OAdministration, the Commonwealth Minister for Health, Greg Hunt, wrote likely to come from a less-authoritative, to Shadow Minister for Health, Catherine King, and the Shadow Parliamentary biased or dodgy clickbait site.4 Secretary for Health, Tony Zappia, about the Therapeutic Goods Amendment Add to that Google’s use of previous (2017 Measures No 1) Bill 2017. search histories, and we have dodgy In that letter, Hunt says that “I can confirm that TGA will be adequately resourced results, certainly not reliable enough for and staffed to manage complaints from July 1 … For example, it is proposed that a regulator charged with protecting the critical complaints will be actioned within 10 days and high and medium impact health of the public to rely on. cases closed within 20 and 40 days.” Next, according to the study Prof Ken Harvey, who has sat on the TGA Complaints Resolution Panel and “Mapping the Anti-Vaccination himself made numerous complaints, now says that he has submitted 14 complaints Movement on Facebook”5: “Anti- to the new TGA Advertising Portal, 12 of which he labelled “high priority”, three of vaccination rhetoric has become part which he judged to be “critical”. of the mainstream discourse regarding In mid-August, Harvey wrote to Hunt, pointing out that “While receipt of these the public health practice of childhood complaints has been acknowledged by the TGA, there is yet no published outcome vaccination” and centres on “moral of any priority accorded or action taken. outrage and structural oppression by “There are now 137 complaint “outcomes” on the TGA web site (compliance. institutional government and the media, tga.gov.au/advertising-complaints-outcomes/). All except six appear to have been suggesting a strong logic of ‘conspiracy- assessed by the TGA as ‘low priority’ and closed on the day they were received by a style’ beliefs and thinking.” ‘Compliance notice sent with educational material’. All the science in the world won’t “There are no details of the products or sponsors involved in these complaints matter if the searcher is vulnerable to that would enable the priority assigned by the TGA to be checked, let alone see conspiracy theories, and for a regulator if the ‘notice’ achieved compliance. As predicted, this is very convenient for the charged with protecting public health to sponsor and the TGA, but is certainly not the transparency proposed.” . rely on the calm presentation of facts is 18 The Skeptic September 18

just wishful thinking. It appears that the HCCC is avoiding the worthy intentions of all our Health Ministers to counter anti- vaccination propaganda. You might ask ‘why’, and so do we. And to set your minds at ease, we did check with the University of Wollongong and requested all records created since January 1, 2017, relating to Judy Wilyman’s employment at the University, her public presentations of research on behalf of the University, and correspondence between the University and Wilyman concerning her use of the name and logo of the University of Wollongong. And they answered: “Although a reasonable search has been undetaken, I have been unable to identify any information that falls within the scope of your request. I have therefore decided, in acordance with s.58(1)(b) of the GIPA Act, that the information sought is not held by UOW.” That response is clear; they have no information to support Wilyman’s claims to be “a university academic and presents research on behalf of the University of Wollongong”. She deceived the Commission. What’s the penalty for that, we wonder. Oh all right, to save you looking it up, it’s $2200. And the penalty for falsely representing herself to a Court as an “expert witness”? .

REFERENCES 1. tinyurl.com/y9qvrtst 2. tinyurl.com/y7w4oev3 3. tinyurl.com/yc37hcwx 4. “Google Has Picked an Answer for You - Too Bad It’s Often Wrong”, Jack Nicas, Wall Street Journal, Nov. 16, 2017 5. “Mapping the anti-vaccination movement on Facebook”, Naomi Smith & Tim Graham J Information, Communication and Society, 27 Dec 2017

About the author: Ken McLeod is a co- founder of Stop the AVN. 19 FEATURE Testimonials

Googling FOR Good f you ever search online for Alexander Holden sinks his teeth into I a new dentist or other health professional, you’re certain to find glowing testimonials to see if medical practitioners websites with positive testimonials. are misleading their patients Then there are the impressive “before and after” photos. But our research* shows that not to market their practice and almost So, if you’re looking for one of all health professionals are playing one in five were using pictures these, bear in mind that the following by the rules when they market or text likely to create unrealistic advertising is illegal: themselves to the public. expectations of the treatment. • false, misleading or deceptive Our study of dentists shows So what are health professionals advertising or advertising that’s almost three-quarters were illegally allowed to claim about the service likely to be misleading or deceptive using testimonials on social media they provide? And what advice should • advertising that offers a gift, you rely on? discount or other inducements, How health professionals are unless the advertisement also states allowed to market themselves depends the terms and conditions of the mainly on what type of service offer they provide. The key is whether • using testimonials or reported the practitioner is providing what’s testimonials known as a regulated health service. • advertising that creates an These include: doctors, dentists, unreasonable expectation of pharmacists, psychologists, nurses and beneficial treatment, and midwives, chiropractors, osteopaths, • advertising that directly or physiotherapists, occupational indirectly encourages the therapists, optometrists, podiatrists, indiscriminate or unnecessary use practitioners of Chinese medicine, of regulated health services. radiographers and sonographers, and These rules apply to all forms of people who provide specialist health advertising across different media, services to Aboriginal and Torres including social media. Strait Islander people. But there is a whole range of health 20 The Skeptic September 18

professionals who aren’t counted as found many testimonials overplayed providing a regulated health service. the positives (better looking and These include optical dispensers, improved function) and downplayed speech and language pathologists, the negatives of treatment (pain relief About the author: and massage therapists. needed, a temporary solution). Dr Alexander Holden is So, if you read great testimonials Testimonials and reviews might lecturer in dental ethics, about these, while persuasive, they’re not even be true. Google requires law and professionalism, unlikely to be illegal under health- no proof you have visited a health University of Sydney. care law. However, they would still professional before you leave a be bound by Australian Consumer non-verified review. And a quick Law, which prevents misleading or search on Google itself reveals many deceptive advertising. businesses offering to sell positive Google reviews. he numbers POSTING A REVIEW Then there are the potentially T … While the law prohibits providers serious health consequences he National Law sets out of a regulated health service from of choosing the wrong health Tregulations that dictate how providing testimonials, there’s professional (or the wrong therapy) health care professionals are to nothing stopping you from leaving after reading testimonials and advertise. The study by Sydney a review on Google or on your own reviews. For instance, there’s nothing University researchers looked at social media page. to prevent medical graduates with the extent to which the dental But if you leave a review on a little or no postgraduate training profession complies with these doctor or dentist’s practice page or using the title “cosmetic surgeon”. regulations. social media account, it’s the health Misleading claims or titles might 260 dental practices and prosthe- professional who also affect your tist only denture clinics (prosthetist will be breaching the ability to consent only, N = 2) were discovered using rules; the regulator “ A quick search on to treatment; if you the Facebook search strategy out- expects health Google reveals many don’t have the right lined in the accompanying article. professionals to information, how It is clear from the data collected manage the content businesses offering to can you make an that the area where there is least of their pages. sell positive reviews. informed decision? compliance is in the use of patient You would think ” Where does this testimonials. 189 practices were in that most testimonial leave me? breach of this aspect of the National sections on social There is no one- Law (71.05%). We found that 14 media would be disabled, however, stop resource for patients to access practices (5.26%) were found to this isn’t what our research showed. health advertising that is completely be displaying misleading, false For bad reviews, you could free from bias. So, take claims or deceptive information, and 11 potentially be sued for defamation relating to health professionals with a practices (4.14%) were utilising offers if your post harms the health pinch of salt, including testimonials. that had unclear or no terms and professional’s reputation. This is an While some people think conditions displayed or inexact pricing. entirely separate section of law, with advertising restrictions stifle public 52 practices (19.55%) fitted the many caveats, so please take care. discussion, they’re in place to protect category of utilising advertising that A recent case involved a surgeon you. . had the real possibility of creating who successfully sued a patient for unrealistic expectations of benefit to A$480,000 after he made defamatory *“How compliant are dental practice having a certain treatment, with no claims online. Facebook pages with Australian health discussion of risks or limitations. Finally, So, what’s the big deal? care advertising regulations?”, ACL 45 practices (16.92%) were found to be Testimonials and reviews are very Holden, H Spallek, Australian Dental in violation of advertising regulations common in other aspects of our daily Journal, September 2017 by encouraging the indiscriminate lives. Just think about the last time and unnecessary utilisation of health you downloaded an app, used eBay Note: Dr Holden will soon be conducting services. . or booked a holiday online. But what a major survey of testimonials and reviews makes health-care so special? as used in complementary and evidence- Source: “How compliant are dental practice Testimonials and reviews can based medicine. Facebook pages”, ACL Holden, H Spallek, potentially mislead. For instance, Australian Dental Journal, September 2017 one study that looked at YouTube This article was first published in The testimonials about dental implants Conversation, September 2017. 21 FEATURE Testimonials

Adrian Camilleri tries to figure out how to split the good from the bad in online Rating THE reviews and ratings lot of consumers, when searching A online for something to buy, will take a look at an online review or rating for a product. It seems like a great way to get an unfiltered view atings on quality but research indicates most an average ratingR of three out of five rating of four out of five stars, with online reviews are too simple and may stars, 100% of the time. another laptop with an average rating misguide consumers. In order to test this assumption, of three out of five stars, the first According to one United States in 2016 one research laptop would only survey, 78.5% of American consumers team put together be objectively better looked for information online an impressive dataset Roughly 16% of 65% (not 100%) about a product or service, and comprising 344,157 “ of the time. This 34% had posted an online review. Amazon.com ratings for restaurant reviews on is a far cry from a A global Nielsen survey found 70% 1272 products, in 120 the website Yelp were sure difference in of consumers trust online product product categories*. suspicious or fake. quality. Moreover, reviews and use them in making For each product, they ” the average user decisions. obtained objective ratings did not As a result, the average user rating quality scores from the predict resale value of products has become a significant website Consumer Reports. They also in the used-product marketplace. factor in driving sales across many collected data on prices, brand image product categories and industries. measures, and two independent RATINGS DON’T REFLECT REALITY The proliferation of online reviews sources of resale values in the market There are several reasons why average from many consumers sounds like a for second hand or used goods. user ratings may not predict objective positive development for consumer The researchers found that average quality measures. User reviews may welfare but some research shows user ratings correlated poorly with include a broader range of criteria than otherwise. the scores from Consumer Reports. those Consumer Reports does, such as For example, when the difference in subjective aspects of the use experience USER RATINGS AND PRODUCT QUALITY average user rating between pairs of (like aesthetics, popularity, emotional Consumers use online user ratings products was larger than one star, the benefits). because they assume these provide a item with the higher user rating was Many reviews are also based on good indication of product or service rated more favourably by Consumer small samples. As any statistics teacher quality. For example, you would Reports only about two-thirds of the will tell you, all things being equal, expect a laptop with an average time. the average user rating should be more rating of four out of five stars to be In other words, if you were informative as sample size increases objectively better than a laptop with comparing a laptop with an average relative to variability. Indeed, in the 22 The Skeptic September 18

online rating study, the correlation that provide objective product making your final judgement based between average user rating and evaluations, from technical experts. only on this cue. . Consumer Reports scores was higher Sources of this kind of information when the sample size was large. include Consumer Reports, Choice, *“Navigating by the Stars: Investigat- Unfortunately, average user ratings Consumers Union, Which? and ing the Actual and Perceived Validity are often based on small samples and CNET. of Online User Ratings”, Bart de high variability. Where possible, you can consider Langhe, Philip M. Fernbach, Donald Online reviews are based on a employing technology designed to R. Lichtenstein, Journal of Consumer biased subset of those who actually help you navigate the bias in online Research, 42:6, April 2016 purchased the product. In general, reviews. Examples include Fakespot reviews are left by those that “brag” and ReviewMeta. For example, Note: This article was first published or “moan” about their product ReviewMeta scans all reviews from a in The Conversation, April 2017 experience, often resulting in a two product’s online listing page, and then mode distribution of ratings. provides an adjusted average rating. This is where the average does not This adjusted rating accounts for all give a good indication of the true sorts of suspicious activities such as a population average. For example, in high proportion of reviews from users one comprehensive dataset for a large with unverified purchases. About the author: private label retailer, the percentage So, the next time you’re evaluating Dr Adrian Camilleri is a of buyers who left a review was just products online, feel free to start with lecturer in marketing at 1.5%. This means that 98.5% of the the average user rating, but be wary of RMIT University. people eligible to leave a review chose not to do so. Many groups also now actively seek to manipulate average ratings. This can be done in the form of fake reviews. For example, businesses (or their agents) may post fictitious favourable reviews for their own products and/ or post fictitious negative reviews for the products of their competitors. According to one study, roughly 16% of restaurant reviews on the website Yelp were suspicious or fake. Websites like Yelp.com and Amazon.com try to mitigate such ingenuity. For example, one pair of shoes from the Ivanka Trump collection has an average rating of four-and-a-half out of five stars despite hundreds of (presumably fake) one-star reviews. ARE ONLINE REVIEWS USEFUL? There is a way to use the information from reviews and ratings despite all of these potential pitfalls. First, look for products with a high average user rating, many reviews, and not a lot of variance in the rating scores. Beware placing too much faith in average ratings that are based on few reviews and with high variance in the ratings. You can also consider online reviews in light of additional sources 23 ARTICLE Feminine Hi-Jinx - 2018 CONVENTION SPEAKER Inconceivable

Trish Hann looks at the issues, problems, n the last issue I highlighted and myths associated with contraception. I some of the issues surrounding the use of Doulas during pregnancy and childbirth; this issue I will be This essentially shows a which disproves its efficacy. They’re giving you a tour through the various contraceptive user’s chance of right though, if you don’t have sexual ineffective methods of contraception pregnancy when using that method. intercourse you’re not going to get that have been available over the years. This formula acknowledges the pregnant. Unfortunately this strategy I will refrain from including male foibles of being human by having two isn’t terribly compatible with human contraceptives in this article, as they versions, “Perfect Use” and “Actual behaviour, and that is what makes it are still very much in the development Use”, which is pretty important, ineffective. phase, and I hope they produce a because if a method is difficult to use Another commonly used but oft- viable alternative to barrier methods perfectly, that should affect its rating. unsuccessful tactic is the “withdrawal and female hormonal contraception, Like any attempt to reduce human method” where the penis is removed allowing men and women to share the biology and behaviour to a simple from the vagina before ejaculation responsibility. equation (Blue Monday, anyone?) happens; again, this generally fails The most common rating system for there are plenty of criticisms of this due to human fallibility, both contraceptives is the Pearl Index which system, but it has been the most behaviourally and biologically. It can is calculated using the formula: widely used since 1933 so it’s the one be difficult to think clearly when most people look to. caught up in the moment, and even PEARL INDEX = Judeo-Christian religions tend to if they do stick to the plan, their (number of pregnancies X 12) teach abstinence as the best method biology may betray them and cause ______X 100 of contraception, even though some sperm to leave the penis in pre- (no. of women X number of months) of them are built on a foundation ejaculate or “pre-cum”. 24 The Skeptic September 18

Looking to more “ancient” TECHNOLOGY SOLUTIONS intersex, or those who have two sets of methods, indigenous communities Intra-vaginal and intra-uterine reproductive organs, will menstruate), have often used herbal concoctions devices have been in use for well over and when a person’s hormone to either prevent conception, a hundred years, with women using levels change significantly, due to ovulation, or to terminate a everything from sponges to soak up starting or stopping medications, pregnancy. The efficacy of these the semen, to inserting small stones biological changes, or other outside methods is difficult to measure as to act as an irritant to prevent egg factors, keeping an accurate log of their ingredients aren’t consistent implantation. Methods like these are menstruation can allow a person to and are often a closely guarded risky and unpleasant, but a chance for have a more in-depth analysis of their secret due to their taboo nature. bodily autonomy probably seemed to health. Their safety is also very dubious, be worth the risk. So why am I telling you all about as the ones which do have In the 1960s T-shaped IUDs were period tracking? Well, anyone who’s pharmaceutical effects could also invented in both spermicidal and ever deliberately tried to get pregnant have other interactions. There hormonal forms, and they were very knows that it’s not always as easy as it are even “forbidden effective but took several seems, and tracking points” on the ear which TCM revisions before they your menstrual practitioners claim can be became regarded as truly On top of all of cycle is almost abortifacients1, again, largely safe for widespread use. “ essential to know untested. A definite hindrance to this, not all women when ovulation is the popularity of IUDs menstruate, and not occurring. This is FOLK TALES was the release of the also pretty useful Before the oral contraceptive pill Dalkon Shield in 19712; all who menstruate information for became widely available, western a bizarrely shaped object are women. someone who is keen societies had their own “folk which was released for ” to not get pregnant, remedies” for avoiding an unwanted use without the need for as there are times in pregnancy. These are all nonsense, formal medical device approval and a woman’s cycle when she may need and some, such as vaginal douching had an advertised pregnancy rate of to take more precautions to ensure the after intercourse, are proven to aid 1.1%. In reality the rate was over 5% risk is as low as possible. There are a conception rather than prevent it! and it also came with an increased risk ton of apps which will tell you your Claims that certain sexual positions, of pelvic inflammatory disease, septic estimated ovulation dates based on standing up after sex, having a hot abortion, and permanent infertility. symptoms you input, and most will bath beforehand, and abdominal This horrifying story is a prime alert you at key dates along the way, massage will prevent fertilisation are example of the need for thorough allowing you to plan ahead several rife among adolescents, especially testing for medical devices, as it months in advance. those who haven’t experienced contains poor clinical trials, untested In recent years several technology science-based sex education. medical claims, fraud, perjury companies have released apps which I personally remember a and even the use of slander in the claim to be “as effective as hormonal particularly egregious rumour courtroom as a defence strategy3. contraception”, often breaking health among my teenage friend group that A modern take on an ancient regulation rules in doing so. They if the woman did not reach orgasm, method of “family planning” is the use claim to be able to tell women, usually she could not get pregnant; all this of technology to monitor a woman’s leads to is disappointed pregnant menstrual cycle, and nowadays, if CHANGES IN CONTRACEPTION IN AUSTRALIA women, who are a force to be it doesn’t have an app, does it really reckoned with. exist? Women have been logging Roy Morgan Single Source (Australia), July 2007 – June 2015, Australian women 18-49 A folk method which does have their menstrual cycles in calendars who use contraception (top 5 responses) some basis is the use of breast- and diaries for ages; awareness of feeding as a way of delaying the your own body and its functions is 2007 return of a woman’s menstrual hugely important, it makes it easier 2015 cycle, thereby effectively preventing to spot when something is wrong, pregnancy for a while after but also allows you the freedom to childbirth. This is by no means predict what’s likely to happen in foolproof though, and even if the near future. On top of this, not

a woman has not experienced all women menstruate, and not all menstrual bleeding yet, she may still who menstruate are women (some Oral IUD Rhythm/ Condoms Hormonalimplants ovulate as soon as a few weeks after people who are either transgender 5.1% - 9.9% withdrawal7.2% - 6.3% 5.7% - 9.5% she has her baby. – and thus biologically male – or 49% - 44.5% 36.6% - 34.4% Contraceptives 25 ARTICLE Feminine Hi-Jinx - 2018 CONVENTION SPEAKER

Inconceivable work or frequent international travel? endometriosis) while for others it Good luck having a regular sleep affects them very negatively. Keep in Continued... cycle. Pair this with the fact that mind, also, that it’s often not just the not everyone ovulates at the same person taking the medication who point in their cycle, various factors experiences the negative and positive can delay or expedite ovulation, aspects of hormonal contraception - using a traffic light system, when it sperm can survive for several days mood changes, libido, and changes is safe to have unprotected sex. This after intercourse, and some people in appearance will affect both the is a really bold claim, and in the fine ovulate from both ovaries per cycle, person taking the medications (don’t print there are plenty of caveats, with a gap between ova, forget that trans- while on the Facebook pages there are you can see how these men will also usually many posts from women about their apps should only be “ The biggest risks take hormonal “digital contraceptive failures”. used by couples who with technology is that contraception Some of the companies add an air are prepared to get to stop their of legitimacy by providing a basal pregnant at any point no two bodies are the biological female body temperature thermometer with during their use. same, and we are all characteristics like the subscription, the idea being capable of mistakes. menstruation) and that you take your temperature AVERSION ” the other people immediately on waking up, the app One of the biggest that person interacts then crunches the numbers and drivers behind with, be they the tells you when you’re ovulating. using these technologies is the partner, friends, or others in their The biggest risks with this type of understandable aversion to social circle. technology is that no two bodies are hormonal contraceptives which Historically there have been the same, but we are all capable of many women feel, especially those numerous health scares associated mistakes. Simple things like taking who may have been taking them with nearly every form of hormonal your temperature after brushing for several years, even decades, and contraception, with increased risks your teeth, accidentally leaving the experienced unpleasant side effects. of everything from stroke, deep vein thermometer by the window to Everyone experiences hormonal thrombosis, depression, weight gain, heat up during sunrise, oversleeping contraception differently, and for headaches, migraines, even breast and taking a reading while getting some it’s what makes life worth living cancer4, and ironically, while the dressed, got young kids, do shift (especially those with conditions like availability of contraception can lead to an increase in sexual liberation, one of the most common side effects is decreased libido. It’s fairly unsurprising that large numbers of women are turning their backs on medical interventions and choosing instead to use more passive, less robust forms of avoiding pregnancy. The question is, are the risks worth it? . REFERENCES 1. tinyurl.com/y8k7xwua 2. https://tinyurl.com/y86quu25 3. https://tinyurl.com/y92ph7a5 4. https://tinyurl.com/znjf8pf

About the author: Trish Hann is a Clinical Educator in Diagnostic Radiology at Royal Prince Alfred Hospital in Sydney.

26 SKEPTICON THE AUSTRALIAN SKEPTICS 34TH ANNUAL CONVENTION Science, medicine, astronomy, education, archaeology, belief systems, linguistics, magic, classic Skeptical topics, and some of the best local and international podcasters and science communicators.

G Carrie Poppy (“Oh No Ross & Carrie”) G Dr Susan Blackmore G Dr Pamela Gay G Yvette ‘SciBabe’ d’Entremont G Dr Alice Howarth (“Skeptics with a K”) G Prof Alan Duffy G Dr Karl Kruszelnicki G Dr Vyom Sharma G Dr Brad McKay G Kirsten Banks G Dr Lynne Kelly G Dr Sue Knight G Richard Saunders (“Skeptic Zone”) G Trish Hann G Beth Darlington G Sam Hutchinson G Lee Murray G Alessa Teunisse G Dr Aaron de Souza G MC Kate Browne (“The Checkout”)

October 13-14 G Chatswood Concourse G Sydney

Annual gala dinner all-inclusive food, drink, entertainment, the Skeptics awards, fun and conviviality.

Special Friday night social event – Occidental Hotel, Sydney – 6pm onwards convention.skeptics.com.au ARTICLE Alt Med

eyeborows sides of eyes under eyes under nose

tapping on the door of evidence-based practice

vidence-based health practitioners Mandy-Lee Noble looks at an E have become skilled at debunking attempt to add scientific credibility woo from unqualified wellness gurus. However, it would appear that calling- to an unproven technique out non-evidence-based practice and pseudoscience from within evidence- based health professions remains a the early 1990s. Recently, it has been in “clinical EFT” is being promoted challenge. rebadged as “evidence-based EFT” or to registered psychologists, dietitians, The complementary and alternative more often “clinical EFT”, implying counsellors, nurses, physicians, and medicine (CAM) industry in Australia greater credibility to evidence-based teachers as a treatment for post- generates over four billion dollars health professions. The new version traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), (IBIS World 2018) in revenue per year of EFT has supposedly withstood the chronic pain, food issues and despite relying on a perception of safety rigours of science. emotional eating, and stress and and efficacy that is not supported by In this article I will evaluate the anxiety. science. Yet CAM training is being evidence that is claimed to support Training in “clinical EFT” is offered offered to evidence-based health “clinical EFT” as an evidence-based to credentialed health professionals practitioners. practice. and teachers by Dr Peta Stapleton, a This should be of great concern to registered clinical psychologist and the health professions targeted. To WHAT IS EFT Associate Professor in Psychology at health consumers, the credentials of EFT combines elements of exposure Bond University, Queensland. The a registered health professional could therapy, cognitive behaviour therapy Dietitians Association of Australia has imply a level of safety and efficacy in (CBT), and mindfulness with also promoted EFT training under CAM treatments. and neuro-linguistic its Centre for Advanced Learning An example of CAM training programming. Acupressure is based in initiative from psychologist Glenn being offered to evidence-based health traditional Chinese medicine and uses Mackintosh, resident psychologist on practitioners is training in Emotional the flow of chi, a type of life-energy yet Channel Ten’s reality TV program The Freedom Techniques (EFT), also to be defined by physics. Biggest Loser. The proponents of EFT known as psychological acupuncture. Fundamentally, EFT lacks the introduce it to health professionals as EFT is a brief counselling intervention scientific plausibility required to be an unorthodox therapy that feels a “bit that has been practiced by CAM considered a science-based medical weird” at first but works surprisingly practitioners and health coaches since treatment (see sidebar). Yet training well in resolving difficult health issues. 28 The Skeptic September 18

It is also claimed that EFT therapy Dr Dawson Church (top) and continues to have a positive effect if Dr Peta Stapleton (bottom), the client has ceased the practice. researchers and proponents of EFT is a self-administered therapy. “emotional freedom techniques” It involves tapping on acupressure points on the head and upper body with two fingers in a specific sequence while repeating a short statement of RESEARCH ISSUES the problem followed by a statement of Before we take a closer look self-acceptance. This is where EFT gets at the outcomes of individual its more common name of “tapping”. treatment trials, there is a Proponents of EFT believe that by research design issue common tapping the acupressure points chi will to all EFT studies that needs travel along the meridian pathways to be highlighted - the lack of and act on the amygdala, an almond- adequate control groups. shaped set of neurons located deep In EFT treatment trials, in the brain. The tapping sequence is participants receive training simple and easy to learn. Practitioners in how to self-administer of EFT provide tapping in conjunction the treatment as well as with a vague mix of exposure therapy, information on how EFT cognitive behaviour therapy, and is claimed to work and the mindfulness. proposed benefits of EFT. If you want to try the tapping for During EFT interventions, yourself there are many instructional there are elements of other videos on the internet that demonstrate treatments, some of which are how to do the tapping sequence. If you evidenced-based. And it could can do the macarena you can tap and also be argued that any form tapping to the macarena can be fun! of distraction that provided Applications of EFT include a sufficient time for acute weight loss program delivered by feelings to pass would have at least BMI classified as overweight or obese. registered psychologists and dietitians, short-term benefits. The current evidence shows that, a chronic disease management program To be confident that there were for the majority of people who achieve delivered by a multidisciplinary benefits from tapping beyond those short-term weight loss all weight team including borrowed from is regained within two to five years GP, psychologist, other evidence-based (NHMRC, 2013). There were three and dietitian, and treatments studies, the treatment trials that measured food programs at two “ There is a research subject-expectancy cravings and weight loss which each Queensland state design issue common or placebo or even an had just twelve months of follow up. high schools to reduce to all EFT studies - elaborate distraction The most recent treatment trial student stress and requires good research (Church, Stapleton, Sheppard, & anxiety related to the lack of adequate design. This could Carter, 2018) was published in the school examinations. control groups. include control groups journal Explore, a journal that David There are also ” similar to those used Gorski of Science Based Medicine has academics at Bond in acupuncture studies described as “sham masquerading as a University and Monash University, where participants are trained to tap on real scientific journal” that publishes both nationally registered Australian “sham” acupressure points. “truly ridiculous studies”. Although the universities, who support the use of According to the website trial did demonstrate short-term weight EFT in different aspects of physical evidencebasedeft.com, Dr Peta loss, Gorski’s criticisms are reflected in and mental health. It would appear Stapleton “leads worldwide research the study design. Participants had to that, despite being rooted in traditional into psychological trials into new pay a significant sum of money to be Chinese medicine, EFT is being therapies in the area of obesity and included in the trial and there was no regarded as an evidence-based practice. weight management, focussed on non-treatment control group. Accepting EFT as an evidence-based clinical EFT”. Dr Stapleton’s recent The second study (Stapleton, practice could ultimately lead to EFT research has focussed on the use of Bannatyne, Urzi, Porter, & Sheldon, treatments being government funded, EFT to reduce food craving and 2016) was a non-inferiority study if that is not already occurring. achieve weight loss in people with a comparing EFT to cognitive 29 ARTICLE Alt Med

Dr Woo ... with EFT may be compounded by controls that rule out possibility the exposure therapy element of EFT tracking outcomes into the future. Continued... which is an evidence-based treatment Finally two recent studies, both for PTSD. co-authored by Dawson Church PhD An assessment of the emerging (Church & House, 2018; Church, behavioural therapy (CBT), a gold evidence for treatment of PTSD by Yount, Rachlin, Fox, & Nelms, standard treatment for eating disorders. the Department of Veteran Affairs 2018), also found EFT to be effective. It had a better study design which may considered the evidence for EFT in a However, both studies suffered the explain why it was published in the report published in 2013 (Australian same limitations suffered by EFT trials Journal of Applied Psychology. However, Centre for Posttraumatic Mental broadly: lack of an effective control neither CBT nor EFT demonstrated a Health (ACPMH), 2013). Only one groups. significant reduction in weight. EFT study met the inclusion criteria The third study (Stapleton, Sheldon, for the report. The report found that MANAGING PAIN AND DEPRESSION & Porter, 2012) was published in the evidence for EFT was of the low Pain management is another condition journal Energy Psychology. Short-term quality with a high risk of bias. that is claimed to have a significant weight loss was demonstrated but Conversely, a more recently benefit from EFT. There was one again no non-treatment control group published meta-analysis of randomised trial (Church, 2014) published in the and over 50 per cent of participants controlled trials of EFT in the journal Explore by Dawson Church, dropped out of the study. treatment of PTSD (Sebastian & the editor of the Journal of Energy Nelms, 2017) published in the journal Psychology. As is the case with all trials TREATMENT FOR STRESS Explore concluded that EFT was safe of EFT, there were major limitations PTSD is another health condition and effective for PTSD but that the to accepting the results, including over claimed to have reliable evidence of current evidence suffers from subjective reliance of self-reporting and lack of an benefit from EFT. However, positive measures of outcomes, low participant effective control group to exclude the outcomes for the treatment of PTSD numbers, and the use of waitlist positive effect of cognitive behaviour therapy and exposure therapy. Depression and anxiety are also conditions that have been promoted Does it work? to evidence-based health professionals as having evidence of benefit from s for the plausibility of Energy Psychology, the author spoke with Dr EFT. Studies of EFT for depression AChris Noble, research physicist in energy-related areas: and anxiety (Church, 2014; Church Is there any evidence for subtle energy pathways such as meridians and acupoints in & House, 2018; Stapleton et al., the body? 2017) were investigated by researchers with vested interests in EFT and were No, these subtle energies are poorly defined and are mostly assumed to be outside similarly flawed due to the lack of a of our current understanding of physics. control group. Do you know what this energy would be? In addition, a pilot study compared EFT to CBT (Chatwin, Stapleton, As far as I can ascertain, the working hypothesis in energy psychology appears to be Porter, Devine, & Sheldon, 2016) and that tapping produces electrical signals at acupressure points via the piezoelectric found a benefit for participants for effect that then travel to other organs in the body such as the amygdala through depression symptoms from CBT but collagen, a semiconductor, in connective tissue. not from EFT. Isn’t there collagen throughout our bodies? CONCLUSIONS Yes, the idea has very little prior plausibility but it is easily testable. There seems To summarise the research claimed to to be little effort to test the basic principles despite an entire journal devoted to support “clinical EFT”: energy psychology. • There is no evidence for a meridian Functional magnetic resonance imaging has been used as a test to demonstrate brain system in the body that carries the activity in response to stimuli. Could this be a credible test for EFT? life-energy described as chi. • All studies lacked an effective control No. With no plausible mechanism for energy psychology it would not be credible to group that could demonstrate use fMRI results as evidence for EFT. It sounds great in media releases and gives an benefit from tapping on acupressure aura of science, but before you use it to try to prove that EFT works you should be a points. clear about exactly what you are trying to measure. . • The research was mostly published in low quality journals. 30 The Skeptic September 18

• Almost all of the published research practitioners have an obligation to 131–136. https://tinyurl.com/yahn3sec has come from only two research maintain a healthy level of scepticism Church, D., Yount, G., Rachlin, K., Fox, L., groups: one led by Dawson Church, towards those both within and & Nelms, J. (2018). “Epigenetic effects one led by Dr Peta Stapleton. outside their profession. This may of PTSD remediation in veterans • Both Dr Stapleton and Dawson seem cynical, but it is those within an using clinical Emotional Freedom have significant evidence-based health Techniques: a randomized controlled financial interests profession who are pilot study”, American Journal of Health in EFT, including best placed to judge Promotion, 32(1), 112–122. https://doi. Dawson’s editorship “ EFT is claimed to when a colleague org/10.1177/0890117116661154 of the journal Energy help resolve traumas has introduced a National Health and Medical Research Psychology. non-evidence-based Council. (2013). Clinical practice • The studies that from past events or practice or moved guidelines for the management of examined weight access talents from outside the scope of overweight and obesity in adults, loss did not have past lives. their practice. adolescents and children in Australia sufficient follow-up to ” Ultimately the role Systematic Review. https://doi.org/ demonstrate long- of evidence-based ISBN 1864965932 term weight loss. health practitioners is to be an advocate Sebastian, B., & Nelms, J. (2017). “The It appears that the health conditions for safe and effective healthcare. . effectiveness of emotional freedom that “clinical EFT” is claimed to techniques in the treatment of post- benefit are likely to be amenable to the REFERENCES traumatic stress disorder: a meta- other elements of EFT such as CBT, Australian Centre for Posttraumatic analysis”, Explore: The Journal of Science exposure therapy, and mindfulness. Mental Health (ACPMH). (2013). “What and Healing, 13(1), 16–25. https://doi. On the other hand, EFT is being emerging interventions are effective org/10.1016/j.explore.2016.10.001 promoted for physical and mental for the treatment of adults with Stapleton, P., Bannatyne, A., Chatwin, health conditions that are unlikely to PTSD? A Rapid Evidence Assessment”, H., Urzi, K. C., Porter, B., & Sheldon, be improved by any element of EFT. (August). tinyurl.com/y8g3aauu T. (2017). “Secondary psychological A brief list of these includes cancer, Chatwin, H., Stapleton, P., Porter, B., outcomes in a controlled trial of allergies, migraines, hypertension, Devine, S., & Sheldon, T. (2016). “The Emotional Freedom Techniques fibromyalgia, muscular dystrophy, effectiveness of cognitive behavioral and cognitive behaviour therapy Parkinson’s disease, and cystic fibrosis. therapy and Emotional Freedom in the treatment of food cravings”, Often an otherwise evidence-based Techniques in reducing depression Complementary Therapies in Clinical practitioner will argue that using EFT and anxiety among adults: a pilot Practice, 28, 136–145. https://doi. for conditions that may be benefited study”, Integrative Medicine: A Clinician’s org/10.1016/j.ctcp.2017.06.004 by the other elements of the therapy Journal, 15(2), 27–34. Retrieved from Stapleton, P., Bannatyne, A. J., Urzi, K. C., makes using EFT acceptable as there https://tinyurl.com/y8obl6t8 Porter, B., & Sheldon, T. (2016). “Food is a low risk of direct harm. However, Church, D. (2014). “Reductions in pain, for thought: a randomised controlled there is always the potential for indirect depression, and anxiety symptoms trial of Emotional Freedom Techniques harm in legitimising non-evidence- after PTSD remediation in veterans”, and cognitive behavioural therapy based practice because it opens the Explore: The Journal of Science and in the treatment of food cravings”, door to all CAM rooted in the same Healing, 10(3), 162–169. https://doi. Applied Psychology: Health and Well- unscientific philosophies. org/10.1016/j.explore.2014.02.005 Being, 8(2), 232–257. https://doi. Dr Stapleton also promotes Church, D., & House, D. (2018). org/10.1111/aphw.12070 EFT practitioners who offer more “Borrowing benefits: group Stapleton, P., Sheldon, T., & Porter, B. dubious EFT services such as matrix- treatment with clinical Emotional (2012). “Clinical benefits of Emotional reimprinting claimed to help resolve Freedom Techniques is associated Freedom Techniques on food cravings trauma from past events or Quantum with simultaneous reductions in at 12-months follow-up: a randomized EFT claimed to help people access posttraumatic stress ddisorder, anxiety, control trial”, Energy Psychology, 4(1).4. talents from past lives. and depression symptoms”, Journal of Opening the door to woo, even Evidence-Based Integrative Medicine, 23; just fractionally, has the potential to https://tinyurl.com/yb5qs8l8 undermine evidence-based healthcare Church, D., Stapleton, P., Sheppard, L., and the professions that provide it. & Carter, B. (2018). “Naturally thin About the author: The CAM industry targets credentialed you: weight loss and psychological Mandy-Lee Noble is an health professionals seeking to lend symptoms after a six-week online independent dietitian/ legitimacy from their credentials. clinical EFT (Emotional Freedom nutritionist based in Registered evidence-based health Techniques) course”, Explore, 14(2), Queensland. 31 ARTICLE Consciousness - 2018 CONVENTION SPEAKER

ave you ever felt as though you H had left your body and were floating above it, or flying above the world like a bird? If so, you are far from alone. Roughly fifteen per cent of people, in many countries around Susan Blackmore looks at the new science of out-of-body the world claim to have had an out- of-body (OBE) experience like this experiences and discovers positive scepticism and few know what to make of it. I certainly didn’t when, as a young questions kept coming I left the room, ontological dualist afterwards”, and student back in 1970, it happened to explored the roofs of Oxford and set I did. The whole experience, despite me. off across the world, flying, floating, many bizarre irregularities, seemed so I was enjoying my first term at and changing shape, until I tried to utterly and vividly real that I became university – perhaps enjoying it too come back. convinced that my soul had left my much because I was not getting nearly The first attempt was easy but the body. It seemed perfectly obvious that enough sleep. One evening, after second found me struggling in vain to minds can separate from their physical dabbling with a Ouija board until late, get back to normal size. First I shrunk homes, becoming free at last to move I sat with two friends listening to music and then, trying to rectify this scary and see without them. From there it and smoking a little hash. I was quite sensation, expanded to enormous size, is a small – if erroneous – leap to the accustomed to this back in those hippy so much so that I lost all sense of being conclusion that they can also survive days, but now I felt rather peculiar, a separate self inhabiting a physical physical death. drifting and unstable. I began rushing world and became one with everything When I checked the college roofs down a tunnel of trees to a roaring else. This, I can say now, was a classic and chimneys the next day, I found sound when a friend asked me “Where mystical experience of oneness or them quite different from what I had are you Sue?” This extraordinary nonduality, although I knew nothing seen, yet this caused only a brief pause question (I was sitting right in front about such things at the time. in my excitement. Perhaps the astral of him on the floor) propelled me into German philosopher Thomas world is not exactly like the real world, clarity. I was looking down from the Metzinger describes the situation perhaps … there are many ways to ceiling on the three of us. Perhaps if perfectly: “For anyone who actually wriggle out of such minor irritants I’d been alone that would have been had that type of experience it is when the clarity, vividness and sense of the end of my peculiar state but as the almost impossible not to become an being so alive are unforgettable. 32 The Skeptic September 18

In a series of illogical (but perhaps profound experiences. and bodily distortions; with stronger forgivable) leaps, I became convinced I remained confused – I could not stimulation she seemed to leave her not only of survival of death but forget the vividness, clarity and joy of body altogether. of telepathy and clairvoyance, my own OBE, and yet my doubts were By manipulating the precise position precognition and psychokinesis, mounting. The only useful step was and strength of stimulation Blanke ghosts, poltergeists, witchcraft and agreeing on a definition of the OBE as could manipulate what she felt. As the magic. I decided then to become a “An experience in which you seem to now-famous 2002 paper in Nature parapsychologist and prove to all my see the world from a location outside proclaimed, “The part of the brain that “closed-minded” lecturers that their the physical body”. This definition is can induce out-of-body experiences has materialistic science was wrong. important because it means the OBE is been located.” an experience. The question of whether How exciting! Further research RAISING DOUBTS anything actually leaves the body is confirmed that patients with brain I had a tough awakening. Embarking then left open for investigation. damage to this specific area often report on a PhD in , I carried No theories of real out-of-body OBEs. And in another lucky hospital out dozens of experiments on ESP, travel I had come across made any event a young epileptic boy had a trying to test my “memory theory sense. The whole astral projection seizure while being monitored. Before of ESP”. But I failed to test it at all lore is riddled with contradictions losing consciousness his arm seemed to because all my results were at chance – and impossibility. How can astral eyes move by itself and later he told doctors no signs anywhere of those paranormal see without a brain to process the that he’d been floating, had the vivid phenomena – not to mention the information? And if all our science sensation of looking down from the ghosts I failed to see, the poltergeists is wrong and they can see, why do ceiling, and went flying high above that turned out to be faulty clocks and we need eyes and a the hospital. His TV sets, or the Tarot readings that brain at all? Why have brain scans revealed worked through cold reading and the all attempts to detect I remained confused a lesion in the very vagaries of memory. When I finally an astral body failed, “ same place that submitted my thesis on Extrasensory and why is there no - I could not forget the Blanke had found. Perception as a Cognitive Process, it was evidence for the etheric vividness, clarity and joy But what does a long catalogue of failure. body that gives the this mean? You I gave up my Tarot cards, my magical astral its ‘energy’? No of my own out-of-body might think these training and my crystal ball and answers came which experience. discoveries prove became what I called “renta-skeptic”, led to my developing a ” that OBEs are enjoying, for a while, all those TV psychological theory of natural brain-based shows in which I was pitted against a the OBE in my 1982 book Beyond the phenomena. Or you might think hundred people who’d seen a ghost, or Body. Yet this was far from satisfying the very opposite – that the TPJ is fifty near-death survivors who knew and I think it’s true to say that the two the “seat of the soul” or “the place they’d seen heaven. I also enjoyed, for extreme views persisted for most of the where the material and the spiritual a while, being the only person (the twentieth century. worlds meet”, as some researchers only one ever, as far as I know) to have actually claimed. This apparent be simultaneously on the boards of THE BRAIN AT WORK impasse reminds me of the same the Society for Psychical Research in The wonderful change began with frustrating arguments that surrounded London and CSICOP, the Committee an accidental discovery by Swiss the discovery of the so-called “God for the Investigation of Claims of the neurosurgeon, Olaf Blanke in 2002. spot”, another area in the temporal Paranormal in Buffalo, New York. It He and his team were operating on lobe that was found to be active during was exciting going to meetings as both a woman with severe epilepsy, using religious experiences. For many people token youngster and token woman. But an array of subdural electrodes spread this showed that such experiences are I was gradually disillusioned. Both these across the surface of her brain, enabling natural and explicable, but for some illustrious organisations claimed to them to stimulate different points and religious believers it was evidence that have the same intention – to investigate so locate the seizure focus. Happily God uses this spot in the brain to make claims of the paranormal with an they were able to help her, but along his presence felt and to communicate open mind. Yet neither showed much the way Blanke found that when he with us, or that “we” use this part of open-mindedness. With some notable stimulated a spot at her right temporo- our brains to contact God through exceptions, SPR members delighted in parietal junction (the TPJ: the area prayer. psychic phenomena and “proof” of life where the temporal and parietal lobes Are we back at the same impasse after death while CSICOP members meet in the cortex on the right side) with OBEs? Happily, I think not and revelled in shallow debunking devoid of she reported very odd sensations; low the reason is that, unlike with astral curiosity about OBEs and other often level stimulation provoked floating bodies, we can ask what the TPJ does. 33 ARTICLE Consciousness - 2018 CONVENTION SPEAKER

Seeing Myself the sensation on his own back while But there is surely more to this, and watching it two meters away. The I am now exploring the idea that OB Continued... impression, for most participants, was vision resembles the “seeing-with-eyes- that they felt the stroking on the back closed” found in some hypnagogic they could see, not on their own body hallucinations and psychedelic states The answers are revealing, because and some felt they had moved forwards in which vivid imagery can be scanned the TPJ is part of the brain’s self- towards the virtual back. Vision with eye movements as though looking system and in particular is involved appeared to trump touch which is why around a real scene. in maintaining our ‘body schema’. their research paper was called ‘Video We have much more to learn, but This is a constantly updated image ergo sum’. now that OBEs are no longer beyond of our whole body that tracks our Many further discoveries followed. the pale for serious researchers we position and movements, relying on In Sweden and Switzerland researchers should soon find out more. The black our muscles, joints and the vestibular have invented other methods for and white thinking of the past in which system that helps us keep our balance. inducing OB illusions, manipulating OBEs were either ‘just hallucinations’ All this information whether people feel they or ‘really real’ can and should be left is integrated with are located behind or behind. All this progress is, I suggest, vision and other in front of their actual an example of positive scepticism in senses to give us a “For most of my life- position, where they seem which what was once a mystery begins rich and full sense of time, OBEs were to be looking from, and to provide insight into big questions embodiment. considered to be far whether their physical about self, mind and consciousness. . This can explain body seems still to be their why, when it is beyond the pale for own. A Swiss team led REFERENCES slightly disturbed, ‘proper’ science . by Silvio Ionta has even Blackmore, S. 2017 Seeing Myself: The new we feel floating and ” induced OB illusions in science of out-of-body experiences, London, flying sensations people lying in an fMRI Robinson. or bodily distortions, and with more scanner and this revealed that the one Blanke, O., Ortigue, S., Landis, T. and disturbance the body schema splits area that changed activity along with Seeck, M. 2002. Stimulating illusory in two, the system no longer able to changes in sensed body location was, own-body perceptions. Nature, integrate the internal and external once again, the TPJ. 419:269-70. senses. Ehrsson, H. H. 2007 The experimental For most of my lifetime, OBEs THE REAL THING? induction of out-of-body experiences. were considered to be far beyond Are these artificial illusions real Science,317(5841), 1048-1048. the pale for ‘proper’ science; only OBEs? No. None of the participants Ionta, S., Heydrich, L., Lenggenhager, B., parapsychologists studied them and felt they were actually out of their Mouthon, M., Fornari, E., Chapuis, then usually seeking evidence for body as happens in typical OBEs. D., ... & Blanke, O. 2011, Multisensory psychic phenomena or life after death. Yet the speed of discoveries has been mechanisms in temporo-parietal cortex With these new discoveries, OBEs exhilarating, and I firmly expect support self-location and first-person have suddenly become of interest to progress to continue. Among the many perspective. Neuron, 70(2), 363-374. philosophers, neuroscientists, and still-unanswered questions the one that Lenggenhager, B., Tadi, T., Metzinger, psychologists, and research has leapt most fascinates me is OB vision. We T., & Blanke, O. 2007. Video ergo sum: ahead. For me, personally, discovering may understand how the body schema manipulating bodily self-consciousness. that both sleep deprivation and splits but why do people typically Science 317(5841), 1096-1099. cannabis affect the TPJ begins to adopt a position hovering above the Metzinger, T. 2005. Out-of-body experiences make sense of why I had that dramatic body and – even more difficult – where as the origin of the concept of a ‘soul’. experience all those years ago. does OB vision come from? Why do Mind and Matter, 31, 57-84. In a dramatic demonstration people, again and again, report that of how to create an OB illusion, they looked down on the world, often For videos, podcasts and more of my work on Swiss and German researchers had including their own body, with clear OBEs see www.susanblackmore.uk/out-of- volunteers wear head-mounted and vivid vision? body-experiences/ displays that showed the images Long ago, in Beyond the Body I coming from cameras located two speculated that when disturbed the About the author: meters behind them. In other words brain tries to find the best model Dr Susan Blackmore is they were watching their own back as of reality it can and when deprived a psychologist, lecturer though two meters in front of them. of sensory input adopts a simplistic and writer researching The experimenter then stroked the bird’s-eye view built from memory and consciousness, memes, and volunteer’s back so that he could feel expectation. anomalous experiences. 34 PUZZLES The Skeptic September 18

ACROSS Brain testers 1. The American prosecutor winks awkwardly at the CRYPTIC CROSSWORD no 39 noted atheist. (7) 5. Grandfather of 1 down was no masseur. (7) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8. The direction 5 across went for a complete M turnaround. (10) 8 E 9 10 9. Little consumable found in local ambience. (4) 11 12. Religion is most of 9 across. (5) I 13. Australia goes insane suffering feeling ill. (6) 12 13 14 C 14. Am going back for mother. (2) T 15 Y 16. One negative for the unknown. (4) 16 17 S 17. Set the boat in motion to avoid halitosis. (5,4) 18 19. Taxi not in use as a treatment for poison. (9) N A 20. 19 20 How can the first person have a mother? (4) A 22. Literary genre caught in the crossfire. (1,1) 23 21 P E 23. When a Teletubby gets older they turn to booze. (6) 22 23 L 24 25 25. Give in to a relative. (5) 26 V 27. Broken pane taken on the tide. (4) 27 28 28. 1001 toted about the south, but failed to achieve J their goal. (10) 29 W 30. Biologist and contemporary of 1 down drew the line. 30 31 A (7) 31. Always late about little Ernest. (7) Tim Mendham + Steve Roberts

DR BOB’S QUIZ DOWN 1. The Territory’s capital naturalist. (6) 1. One 14th-century manuscript of the Gospel according to Luke 2. WAVELENGTH – Amount of time you say hello had, in chapter 3, the human race’s oldest ancestor named as in the band. (10) Phares, and God as being the son of a man named Aram. How come? 3. Mythic conspirators put on the light. (12) 4. Stately colour for the devil. (5) 2. Did Jesus ever get angry? 5. Unveil too weirdly for a system of change. (9) 6. Promotion of old CE. (2) 3. Is homoeoteleuton a reasonable explanation for parablepsis? 7. A Stooge as late birds. (4) 4. The apostle Paul mentions a man named Junias (in Romans 10. Dog of a vessel for 1 across. (6) 16) – a name that never occurs anywhere else in history. What 11. Them’s the breaks, as they say in war. (4,2,6) is the hidden agenda here? 15. Rack mail an alternative system of change that 5. Why did Lobegott Friedrich Constantine von Tischendorf’s happens over a lifetime. (10) mother give him the first name “Lobegott” (=Praise God)? 17. Hug the majority of 40, give direction to a confused monster, and follow a follower of 1 across. (9) 18. Sounds like coming events for Nobel laureate. (6) 21. Fix the Spanish founder of genetics. (6) 24. Crane collapsed when lifting Pearl’s mother. (5) Answers on page 62 26. What happened to 20 across after his pride went. (4) 29. Rasputin kicked off with the sun god. (2) 0335 ARTICLE Belief - 2018 CONVENTION SPEAKER

BELIEVE IT OR NOT

e might not have said “There’s a Alessandra Teunisse asks if the Barnum Effect really Hsucker born every minute”, but the American showman, businessman, does measure gullibility ... or is it normal to believe? and promoter of hoaxes, Phineas Taylor Barnum, has had such a “At times you have serious doubts personality profile, but they each tend to profound impact on our collective as to whether you have made the right rate it as a highly accurate description of psyche as a manipulator of gullible decision or done the right thing. You their unique personality. Indeed Bertram masses that psychologists have named a prefer a certain amount of change Forer, the creator of that original profile, phenomenon after him – the Barnum and variety and become dissatisfied based it on a description he found in an Effect. when hemmed in by restrictions astrology book. This personality profile In early research, the Barnum effect and limitations … At times you are (or something very similar) was used has been used as a demonstration of extroverted, affable, sociable, while at in his original experiment and in many gullibility. Originally called “the fallacy other times you are introverted, wary, other Barnum studies that followed. of personal validation” (Forer, 1949), reserved. Some of your aspirations tend Since the general and vague profiles the Barnum Effect experiment is to be pretty unrealistic. Security is one of used in Barnum studies are not unique usually done in a group setting (e.g., a your major goals in life.” personality feedback, psychologists classroom). As a participant in a standard Finally, after reading your profile, you argued that the propensity to accept such Barnum study, you would complete a are asked to rate how accurate the profile profiles as accurate is a demonstration self-report personality questionnaire, and is. Did the psychologist get it right? of gullibility. Of course, this tendency then, usually a week or two later to give As you read this, do you find for people to accept general, and vague the psychologist time to ‘analyse’ your yourself agreeing with any of it? If you information as personally meaningful is results, you would receive a ‘unique’ answered ‘yes’, you are not alone. This not confined to the personality feedback; personality profile based on your is because the description was crafted it is also a staple of cold reading—a personality questionnaire scores. to be generally applicable to most technique used by psychics to persuade Here is an excerpt of a profile used in people - in fact, the participants in a and manipulate their marks (eg, these experiments: typical Barnum study receive the same Rowland, 2002) 36 The Skeptic September 18

Does rating the Barnum profile as P T Barnum and that each participant completes. The accurate mean that you are gullible? Tom Thumb participants are then presented with one While psychologists who conducted the of three possible personality profiles; one early investigations of the Barnum effect that matches their personality, one that is argued that it was measuring gullibility, the opposite of their personality, and one others (eg, Layne, 1979) argued that that is the typical Barnum profile which it is really quite rational to accept the is very general. In line with Layne’s Barnum profiles as accurate. Specifically, (1979) claim that accepting Barnum since these general, vague, and usually statements as accurate is rational, positive profiles are crafted to pretty the preliminary results suggest that a much fit anyone, it would be irrational person’s gullibility does not affect their to reject them as inaccurate. Essentially, acceptance of those bogus personality the Barnum Effect is measuring an profiles. acceptance phenomenon, not a person’s PT Barnum once said that success gullibility. involved having “a little something for everyone”. These personality profiles are WHAT IS GULLIBILITY? so general that they are accepted by most In defining gullibility there are two people. This shouldn’t be a surprise, nor elements to consider: Firstly, there must does it say anything about a person’s be cues indicating an untrustworthy gullibility. Instead, it is a measure of situation or premise. These cues can rationality. Our hope is that this newly vary from overt (eg, Nigerian royalty developed reliable and valid measure of has personally contacted you) to subtle gullibility can be used whenever there (eg, products or services at unbeatable is a need to gain a quick and handy prices). measure of people’s propensity to be Secondly, we need to consider a along with my supervisors, Dr Trevor gullible. This might be in experiments person’s ability and willingness to Case and Prof Julie Fitness, I have been (as described above) or even as a general detect those cues. A person’s ability to creating a scale to measure gullibility. In way of working out who might be at risk detect cues of untrustworthiness may a program of studies, over 1800 people of falling victim to scammers. . be impaired because they have a lower have now completed this measure. The IQ, developmental delays, cognitive Gullibility Scale comprises 12 questions. impairments, or they are simply tired. Each question is rated using a scale of 1 REFERENCES Or, a person may be motivated or not (strongly disagree) to 7 (strongly agree). Forer, B. R. (1949). The fallacy of personal willing to acknowledge So, the higher the total validation: A classroom demonstration of those cues. A person score the more gullible gullibility. The Journal of Abnormal and Social may so desperately The Barnum Effect a person is. In a study Psychology, 44(1), 118–123. https://doi. want to believe that “ using Skeptics and org/10.1037/h0059240 they have found their measures accept- scam victims, we found Furnham, A., & Schofield, S. (1987). Accepting true love online that ance of feedback, that Skeptics scored personality test feedback: A review of the they dismiss any not gullibility. the lowest on the scale, Barnum effect. Current Psychology, 6(2), 162– warning signs to the ” followed by a control 178. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02686623. contrary. sample of students. Scam Layne, C. (1979). The Barnum effect: Rationality So, gullibility can victims, on average, versus gullibility? Journal of Consulting and be defined as the scored the highest. Clinical Psychology, 47(1), 219–221. https:// acceptance of a false premise in the Currently, we are running a study to doi.org/10.1037//0022-006X.47.1.219 presence of untrustworthiness cues. investigate the claim that acceptance of Rowland, I. (2002). The Full Facts Book of Cold Essentially, you believe something is Barnum statements does not represent Reading (3rd edition). Ian Rowland Ltd. true even though there are clear signs to gullibility. Now that we have a reliable London the contrary. and valid measure of gullibility in the The early research in gullibility used Gullibility Scale, we are running the the Barnum Effect paradigm to measure modified version of the Barnum Effect About the author: it. But we now understand that the to see if acceptance of the profile is Alessandra Teunisse is Barnum Effect measures acceptance of associated with Gullibility Scale score. currently completing a PhD generalised feedback, not gullibility. In My psychology honours student, Sarah at Macquarie university, my PhD research in the Department Doueihi, is using the Gullibility Scale as investigating the psychology of Psychology at Macquarie University, part of a set of personality measurements of gullibility. 37 ARTICLE History

The Man Who Dated The World -&got it wrong! Martin Bridgstock looks at the work of a man who is something of a patron saint to Young Earth Creationists

hen my mother passed away, Wshe left me an old Bible, published in 1899. The interesting feature is that it has a chronology of the world in the margins. For example we are told that God created the world in 4004 BC, that Noah’s Flood began in 2349 BC and that Moses parted the Red Sea in 1491 BC. There is evidence, of a kind, backing these numbers. There is also a mass of scholarly work carried out by one of the sharpest minds of his day. In this article, I want to understand this man’s thinking, and how he came to his conclusions. James Ussher (1581-1656) was born into an Irish Protestant family. For his whole life he was both a devout Anglican clergyman and a and historical analysis: his total them in a debate. One of them would first-rate scholar, eventually becoming collected works run to 17 volumes. then convert. Lady Mordaunt chose Archbishop of Armagh. Anglicans in In addition, Ussher took part in Ussher as her champion, Lord John Ireland were in a strange position. debates with Catholic opponents. chose a well-known Jesuit who went The London government strongly Perhaps his most sensational by the name of Beaumont (though disapproved of Roman Catholicism, confrontation took place in 1625, at his real name was Rookwood - he and supported the Church in Ireland. the Northamptonshire home of Lord may have changed it because he was However, most Irish – the vast John and Lady Elizabeth Mordaunt. the brother of one of the Gunpowder majority – clung to their traditional The Mordaunts had a problem - Lord Plotters). faith, and hated the Protestant John was a Catholic, while Lady Now I have taken part in debates ‘heresy’. Elizabeth was a Protestant. They both against fanatical opponents, so I Ussher became heavily involved took their religion seriously. The know that it is astonishingly difficult in Catholic-Protestant disputes. couple finally agreed that each would to secure a clear win. In this debate, He wrote long tomes of Biblical appoint a ‘champion’ to argue for Ussher went first. He spoke for a total 38 The Skeptic September 18

of three days, outlining his thesis of the church. In these early years, Hebrew, Samaritan and Greek versions that the current Catholic Church was the proponents of Christianity were (he could work in all these languages). not at all like the original Christian taunted by non-Christians who argued He heard of a Chaldean translation church, and that the Church of that the new faith had no roots in somewhere in the Middle East, and England was a far better claimant history. sent an agent to acquire it. While the to be the true church of god. As his The Christian answer was to agent was working, Ussher studied argument rolled remorselessly on, appropriate the Jewish Chaldean so that Beaumont became more and more holy book and to In these early years, he was ready to & distressed. Finally, on the fourth day, incorporate it into “ examine it. After - got it wrong! it was Beaumont’s turn to speak. the Christian Bible, non-Christians argued years of work, But nobody could find him. Then a calling it the Old that the new faith had Ussher concluded note was discovered, apologising and Testament. This gave that the Hebrew saying that he had forgotten all his Christianity a history no roots in history. version was most arguments. He had run away. going back (literally) ” reliable, so he used Lord John Mordaunt kept his to the creation of the that. word and converted to Anglicanism. world. It also suggested, tantalisingly, Ussher spent years working on his Much later, he became one of the few that the creation could be dated. In chronology, and looked like failing. aristocrats to side with parliament the Old Testament there are long Using the lists of begats in the Old early in the Civil War. Lady Mordaunt strings of ‘begats’, along with the ages Testament, and the ages of the fathers, never forgot what Ussher had done, of the begatters, chronicling thousands he compiled a chronology several and her gratitude later saved his life. of years of history. thousand years long, beginning with Ussher set to work on this problem Adam and ending up among the later THE AGE OF THE EARTH of dating. He had to make sure that Old Testament prophets, but without What links all this to the age of his evidence was as reliable as possible, a fixed point. He needed to anchor the Earth? Ussher spent eighteen so he scrupulously compared various this ‘floating chronology’ in historical years studying the early writings translations of the Bible, including time.

0339 ARTICLE History

The Man who dated the World - and Got it Wrong! Continued...

USSHER’S KEY BREAKTHROUGH It was here that Ussher made his crucial breakthrough. He noticed what had eluded other scholars. In the Second Book of Kings, he saw an incident which occurred during the captivity of Israel in Babylon: “And it came to pass in the seven and thirtieth year of the captivity of Jehoiachin king of Judah, in the twelfth month, on the seven and twentieth day of the month, that Evil-merodach, king of Babylon, in the year that he began to reign did lift up the head of Jehoiachin king of Judah out of comes before evening, so this had Xeeexxx xxxxxxxx xxx xxx x Xeeexxx xxxxxxxx Prison.” (Second Book of Kings, to mean that the Earth was created xxx xxx xxcx xxx xxx xcx xxx xxx 25:27). the evening before the first full day. Ussher knew that Evil-merodach Symmetry suggested that the time was Mordaunt was now the dowager was the son of King Nebuchadnezzar. six pm. So after all his labours, Ussher Lady Peterborough. Her late In his encyclopaedic reading, he had triumphantly concluded that the husband’s support for Parliament come across a list of kings and their world had been created at 6 pm on gave her great prestige. She sheltered dates, compiled by the mathematician Saturday October 22, 4004 BC. Ussher in her London residence, and and scientist Ptolemy in the first he avoided prosecution. Visitors to century CE. This included the date of THE GREAT PROJECT the house remember him as a tall, Nebuchadnezzar’s death. Ussher took Armed with his conclusions, Ussher courteous kindly person. He was now Ptolemy’s date and converted it into set out to do what no scholar could an old man, driven by his desire to the modern calendar, concluding that possibly have done before him: he write his great history of the world. Nebuchadnezzar had died in 562 BC. set out to write a So each day he would That gave his chronology a fixed point history of the world, Ussher was quite find a well-lit place in in time. Working back through his with correct dates. “ the house, set up his lists, Ussher computed that the world However, events different from the table and papers, and had been created 3442 years before now turned against evolution deniers who write. the death of Nebuchadnezzar. Adding him. He travelled While engaged the two numbers gave 4004 BC as the to England and regard him as some on his task, Ussher date of creation. became chaplain to sort of patron saint. saw, from the roof of Ussher wasn’t finished, though. King Charles I. The ” Lady Peterborough’s He noted that there was ripe fruit civil war (1642-51) house, the execution in the Garden of Eden. Clearly this ensued, and Ussher lost this position. of Charles I. The event shook him meant that creation took place in His papers were scattered while he deeply, but he was able to continue the northern autumn, and symmetry avoided the war. Then his King was with his great task. What did suggested that this would be during defeated, and he was left essentially eventually stop him was age and the autumn solstice. But Ussher also destitute. Further, the Cromwell infirmity. He completed the second noted a strange characteristic of a government was not well-disposed volume of his history, taking the verse in Genesis. It ran: “And the to the King’s ex-chaplain, and was reader up to 70 CE – the year when evening and the morning were the considering action against him. the Romans stormed the Jewish first day.” (Genesis 1:5). Luckily, a past good deed came temple in Jerusalem – but had to Ussher noted that morning usually back to help him. Lady Elizabeth stop there. He died in 1656, and 40 The Skeptic September 18

the second volume was published the other hand new ways of thinking Jackson, Patrick Wyse. (2006). The posthumously. about the past soon began to appear. Chronologers’ Quest. Cambridge, After Ussher’s death, he was Within a few decade of Ussher’s Cambridge University Press. widely praised. Even his opponents death, observers were starting to paid tribute to his personal kindness think quite differently about the and profound scholarship. Oliver age of the Earth. Edward Lhwyd About the author: Cromwell organised a state funeral (1660-1709) was a Welsh scientist. Martin Bridgstock is a and Ussher was buried in Westminster He noted that rocks occasionally fell retired senior lecturer in Abbey. What ensured Ussher’s fame, from the sides of Llanberis Pass, in the School of Biomolecular however, was when Thomas Guy, North Wales, and came to rest on the and Physical Sciences at a successful publisher (who also valley floor. Lhwyd heard from the Griffith University and the endowed Guy’s Hospital), used the locals that such falls only happened author of Beyond Belief. chronology in an edition of the Bible. two or three times in a lifetime, and The use of the dates was common so he counted boulders and estimated until the end of the nineteenth that the Earth was perhaps 200,000 century. to 300,000 years old. A little later, the Comte de Buffon (1707-1788) WHAT SHALL WE MAKE OF USSHER? performed experiments on the Of course Ussher’s dating system cooling of hot metal balls of varying was hideously, ludicrously wrong. sizes. He tried to extrapolate to the GET THE FACTS! The earth is actually more than Earth, allowing for the insulating Visit our new website 700,000 times older than Ussher’s effect of its crust and atmosphere, estimate. And yet at the time, Ussher’s ending with an age of 74,832 years. www.skeptics.com.au chronology was not regarded as The theological outcry made him strange or eccentric. Other scholars, keep secret his personal estimate of such as Sir Walter Raleigh and Oxford about ten million years. Vice-Chancellor John Lightfoot, also Now both Lhwyd and Buffon were made estimates, and their figures were wrong, but we can begin to see the similar to Ussher’s. How could such emergence of people thinking about a keen, well-informed mind be so the age of the Earth in a recognisably terribly wrong? scientific way. Better estimates The short answer is that there was would follow, converging on the no adequate way of dating the past current estimate of an earth which back then. It cannot be observed is 4.6 billion years old, in a universe directly. All we can do is look at perhaps three times that age. Instead what is currently observable, and of ridiculing Ussher, a charitable make deductions. Like many people, reaction is to regard him as a man Ussher accepted the Bible as a reliable of his day, an estimable scholar and source of knowledge, and so all his apparently a good man. . learning and reasoning led him into a useless dead end. Ussher was not an obscurantist, like the modern creation SOURCES scientists. He simply had no other Brice, William R. (1982). Bishop Ussher, John source of information. Lightfoot and the Age of Creation. Journal It should be clear that Ussher was of Geological Education 30, 18-24. quite different from the evolution Elrington, C. R. and J. H. Todd. (1847- deniers who regard him as some sort 1864). The Whole Works of Most Rev. James of patron saint. By the standards of Ussher, D.D., Dublin: Hodges and Smith (17 his day, he was a highly regarded volumes). scholar. He took care with his Ford, Alan. (2007). James Ussher. Theology, The latest news, events, evidence and worked hard to make History and Politics in Early-Modern Ireland sure it was the best available. Some and England. Oxford University Press. opinions, back issues of his findings, such as the dating Holy Bible. (1899). Holy Bible containing the of Nebuchadnezzar’s death, and his Old and New Testaments. Oxford. Printed and good stuff! judgement that the Hebrew Bible was at the University Press for the British and the most reliable, still stand today. On Foreign Bible Society. 41 ARTICLE Classic Catches - Numerology

It Just Don’t Add Up!

In this classic catch article from 1989, Sir Jim R. Wallaby takes off his socks and calculates the problems with numerology

ollowing a recent expose of a We Wallabys did not get where we are any rational test. F numerological get-rich-quick today by refusing challenges just because scheme in the pages of this journal, of their utter pointlessness, so herewith HOW DOES IT WORK? I took to pondering on just what the ultimate and definitive work on the The whole universe is governed by numerology is all about. ancient art of numerology (Nobel Prize numbers and the numbers that count, The name suggests that it should be Committee please note). numerology-wise, are the integers 1-9 about the study of numbers, but, as is inclusive. Everyone can be reduced to a usual in these occult matters, names can WHAT IS NUMEROLOGY? single digit number. To determine your be deceptive. After all, astrology should “Numerology is the art of predicting by “birth number” (inherent characteristics), be about the study of stars and it clearly numbers and can provide an extremely you need to know your date of birth (at is not. interesting and accurate insight into least with astrology you need to know the Combing through my skeptical character and personality. It requires time and place as well!). library for some learned dissertation on no extrasensory powers but is simply Calculation of your “name” number the subject, I was astonished to discover worked out mathematically”, or so Ann is much more complex. You not only that no-one appears to have seriously Petrie, in Your Psychic World A-Z would need to know how to spell your name, investigated this popular pseudoscientific have us believe. That appears to be a you also need to be able to numerify it by belief. Most investigators appear to fairly accurate and simple consensus of application of an extremely complicated mention numerology, if at all, only in the position of other works consulted. formula (Figure 1). Those readers who passing, as yet another sad example of (They are all simple – there is nothing dropped mathematics after kindergarten human gullibility. complex about numerology.) should skip the next bit. Undaunted, and with visions dancing They usually contain references to in my head of being recognised as the Pythagoras and to the Jewish Kabala, a Figure 1: author of the definitive work on the fairly standard practice among modern 1: A, J, S 6: F, O, X topic, I turned to the works of believers proponents of pseudoscience, the 2: B, K, T 7: G, P, Y to seek some insights. Enlightenment assumption being that association with 3: C, L, U 8: H, Q, Z was not long in coming. ancient scholarship coming to grips with 4: D, M, V 9: I, R Numerology is a belief of such the nature of the real world somehow 5: E, N, W stupefying banality as to make astrology lends antiquity, and thus validity, to Now the maths gets really look like an exact science. beliefs that have failed to measure up to complicated. We have to reduce all of 42 The Skeptic September 18

and quarrelsomeness, while 6 is a the human intellect. peacemaker. As Einstein has both, he The chart shown in Fig 1 is not the was obviously pretty conflicted. only method of calculating your name Five is the number for lively, number. Some charts use only the impulsive, quick thinking and quick numbers 1-8, while even others rely on tempered people, while seven is for the old Hebrew alphabet of 22 letters. introverted, philosophical or spiritual As one proponent puts it, “do not be types. As Newton has both numbers, surprised if two readings give different they are supposed to modify each other. results as each may be using a different It is by no means certain that those chart”. This equates with “If your fire descriptions match the individuals won’t light and you have fuel, heat concerned, but it doesn’t matter to the and oxygen, then start believing in the numerologist. phlogiston principle, and it might light Other characteristics can be deduced up”! by the calculation of the vowels in The reason numerologists believe that the name, and the title of the job numbers control our lives is that they or profession. Hat sizes and phone believe that the universe is made up of numbers are not mentioned in any of a variety of vibrations. This is quite in the references I consulted, but there accord with modern physics, although it seems to be no reason why they should probably originates in the old “Music of not have an effect. the Spheres” concept. One important modifier seems to be Where numerologists depart from that one is measured by the name by rational thinking is when they seek to which one is generally known, not by ascribe meanings to such arbitrarily one’s full name (if they differ). Thus, if human designated concepts as dates and Newton was generally known as Ike, he words. At this level, numerology falls becomes an 8, and if Einstein answered back into magic. these figures to a single digit. This to Albie, he becomes a 7. process is shown in Figure 2. For the The idea seems to be “use what THE CALENDAR purpose of the exercise, I will use the numbers you like to make the facts Dates have no intrinsic meaning and data for Albert Einstein and Isaac fit your preconceptions”. The Federal are merely useful measures of divisions Newton. Treasurer seems to use the same system. of our lives. Some of the components [For the youngsters, at the time of of a date can be associated with natural Figure 2: writing that was Paul phenomena, the day Einstein Keating. - Ed] with the rotation of Birth number: Each number “Numerology is a the Earth and the year 1 + 4 + 3 + 1 + 8 + 7 + 9 attracts importance belief of such stupefy- with its revolution = 33 = 3+3 = 6 to itself by its around the Sun. connection with ing banality as to make Ignoring the Name number: other factors, ie 3 astrology look like an fact that there are a ALBERTEINSTEIN because it represents exact science . number of definitions 1+3+2+5+9+2+5+9+5+1+2+5+9+5 the Christian Trinity ” of the day, solar, = 63 = 6+3 = 9 (or the number sidereal and civil, let of wickets for a hat trick or coins in us use the civil day of exactly 24 hours Newton the fountain), 4 for the points of the (the other two are three or four minutes Birth number: compass, seasons of the year or the sides either side - if you want to know why, 2+5+1+2+1+6+4+2 of a square (quarts in a gallon, years in look them up; I’m not doing all the = 23 = 2+3= 5 an American Presidential term, throw work). The year is even worse, with them all in, they may add significance). sidereal, tropical, anomalistic, lunar and Name number: If you think all this is pretty esoteric, eclipse years, all of different lengths. ISAACNEWTON look what Ann Petrie says about 8: The year we use in our calendar 9+ 1 + 1 + 1 +3+5+5+5+2+6+5 “This is the number of materialism and is based on the solar year, which has = 43 = 4+3 = 7 represents all that is solid and complete. a length of 365 days, 5 hours, 48 Nine is supposed to represent WHEN HALVED, ITS PARTS ARE minutes and 46 seconds. To make the characteristics of activity and EQUAL.” Surely a statement that rates things easier for the calendar makers, determination, accident proneness up there with E=MC2 as a triumph of we have the system of three years 0343 ARTICLE Classic Catches - Numerology

It just don’t add up! Continued... 6

at 365 days and every fourth year having 366 days. There is still some discrepancy, much of which is removed making only every century year a leap year (2000 was a leap year, 1900 was not though normal leap year rules indicate that it should be). As a result of all this, every 400 years the calendar is approximately 2.88 hours MESSING WITH THE CALENDAR calculated a more accurate length short of 400 solar years. The calendar I have been referring to for the year and suggested that a All of which is fine for human is the one which is the most widely day was being lost every 128 years. affairs, as we have methods of making accepted throughout the world and is This information was referred to an adjustments, but it seems to be a known as the Gregorian Calendar. It interdepartmental select committee, fairly slipshod sort of accuracy for is the descendant of the old Roman and barely 852 years later something those vibrations that form the basis of calendar which had 12 months was done about it. numerology. (The length of the year alternating between 29 and 30 days, Pope Gregory XIII decreed that the also appears to be a good circumstantial making 354 and an additional month day following October 4, 1582 would argument against Special Creation, as it added every three years to get the sun be October 15, and that only every happens.) back in sync with the calendar. fourth century year would be a leap The next part of the date that This rather complicated system, year. This decree caused a great deal of is important for numerological which is still used in some places, was consternation. People whose birthdays calculations is the month. While the revised by Julius Caesar in 46 BC, fell on the missing days were peeved; calendar year and day are accurate to which incidentally had 445 days to the unions demanded double time for within better than 0.2 per cent, months bring things back into line. Julius C. the missing 10 days and the Orthodox can deviate from the mean by more than decided on the Leap Year system we and Protestant countries refused to be 5 per cent. That certainly adds a large still observe but had alternating 31 and told what to do by some Pope. margin for error into any calculation. 30 day months, with In the long Months are loosely based on the February having 29 or If you did insist on run, all Christian cycles of the moon, or to be precise, 30 depending on the “ countries accepted the synodic period, or the mean time, Leap Year. having months that the Gregorian between new moons. This is equal to For his good work, were exact, then we calendar, the British 29.530587981 days. Julius had a month in 1752, Russia in Now we all know that no month in named in his honour would have 12.36 1918 and Greece our calendar has 29.53 etc days, which after his death. months in a year. and other Orthodox is probably a good thing for school Augustus made only ” countries in 1923. teachers. Imagine teaching children a one contribution to Many non- mnemonic that said 29.530587981 the calendar; he named August after Christian countries have also accepted days hath September, April, June, and himself and, the story goes, stole the the Gregorian calendar, largely for November, etc. extra day from February so his month commercial reasons. If we did insist on months that were could be the same length as Julius’. Incidentally, the Gregorian calendar exact, then we would have 12.36... This day was known as the August and the sun are so well-tuned that there months in a year, which would play Bank Holiday, after the banks of the will only be one day discrepancy by the havoc with holidays, bills, etc. So we Tiber on which Rome was built (this is year 5000 CE. have a year with four months of 30 a lie). There are a few other relevant facts days, seven with 31 and February with This calendar, which calculated about the calendar that I will briefly 28 or 29 depending upon whether it is the year as exactly 365 days, 6 hours, cover. a leap year. Other calendars, which we toddled along, quietly losing 11 The Roman year originally began will mention later, are based on lunar minutes a year, until a British monk, on March 1, but this was changed to phases. the Venerable Bede, in 730 CE January 1 in 153 BC. The English New 44 The Skeptic September 18

4 9 5

Year began on December 25 until the Joseph Scaliger, in 1582. 14th Century, when it was changed to This system counts days from noon, March 25 and finally to January 1 in January 1, 4713 BCE. The start date is 1752, at the time when the Gregorian quite arbitrary and enables astronomers calendar was accepted. Scotland has to calculate the time, in days, between used January 1 since 1600. astronomical events without going The Muslim calendar dates from through all the conversions necessitated the Hegira (Mohammed’s flight from by all the changing calendars. Mecca) in 622 CE. The Muslim To throw just a little more confusion that the addition of digits, which are calendar is a lunar system of twelve into the story, this system is known as calculated from any one of dozens 29 and 30 day months alternately, the Julian Period, which was not named of arbitrarily designed calendars, will with some years having an extra day for the famous Julius Caesar but for M. produce a result that has an intrinsic tacked onto the last month. There are Scaliger’s father, who was named Julius meaning. 19 ordinary years and 11 extra day Caesar Scaliger. Confusing, ain’t it. years in every 30 year cycle, to keep the Australia Day 1989, at noon, NAME NUMBERS calendar in step with the moon. marked the beginning of Julian Day Now let us consider the other, and what The Jewish calendar is also a lunar 2,447,553. many numerologists consider to be the system, fixed according to the Metonic Now the purpose of this rather long more important, aspect of numerology, cycle of 19 years. The Jewish New Year winded digression into the arcana of that of the number which can be falls between September 5 and October calendric inventivity is to show just deduced from our names. After all, there 5. how meaningless birth dates are to the is not much that one can do about one’s (The Metonic cycle is when the vibrations of the universe. It would birth date, apart from using a different phases of the moon occur on the be different of course, if we could calendar, or converting to a different same day of the year. 19 years [6939.6 determine just when the first day religion. days] almost equals 235 lunar months occurred. If one is a Creationist, that When we get to name numbers, we [6939.69 days].) is easy; it was October 23, 4004 BCE. can easily change our name and thus The Christian calendar dates from a [See Martin Bridgstock’s article on change our number. This would seem mistaken post facto idea of the date of Bishop Ussher this issue. – Ed] to be the numerologists’ version of free the birth of Christ. But I am talking about real people. will. It may be the reason why so many The Roman calendar dates from the Even numerologists are not that dumb. early film stars changed their names, founding of Rome in 753 BC, and the There is no way of measuring when Hollywood always being at the forefront Greek from the establishment of the the first day happened, nor when of any crackpot belief. Olympic register in 776 BC. the measurement of years or months Everything that has been said about There are of course many other should begin. Scientists may discover, calendars and their arbitrary nature can calendars, all different and all starting fairly accurately, just when the sun be repeated about alphabets, only more at different times. None of them mark turned on, when the Earth accreted so. Calendars at least must make some their beginning from any naturally out of the dust cloud and when the reference to some natural phenomena. occurring event, but from some moon got there, but it is asking a bit Alphabets are merely arbitrary symbols historically important human event. much to determine these events with that refer to some of the almost infinite One other method of counting time an accuracy of +/- 12 hours. That number of sounds of which the human is the system invented by a Frenchman, being the case, we are asked to believe voice is capable, and many languages 45 ARTICLE Classic Catches - Numerology

It just don’t us consider the late Chinese dictator, To illustrate my point, I have Chairman Mao. In his own ideographic numerified some well-known names, add up! language, he should have been just to see if any pattern emerges. As we numerologically unclassifiable. We in live in a society that forces us to take Continued... the west, using a linguistic convention, some notice of politicians, let us see wrote his name as Mao Tse Tung, which how some of our leaders shape up in the produces for him a number 9. Some numerical stakes. exist that have no alphabet at all. years ago, the western convention in The Prime Minister is widely and Japanese and Chinese written languages translating Chinese names was changed generally known as Bob Hawke [This are ideographic, where the symbol to a new convention (one that rather article did first appear in 1989 – Ed] represents an idea or concept rather more accurately and probably thinks than a word. These symbols are not in reflected the Chinese You could translate of himself that way any fixed order, so how can you hope to pronunciation) and he “ (remember this attribute a number to a name. became Mao Zedong, the name into English is supposed to be Add to this the fact that many a 1. The characteristics with Roman letters, but important). He is a 4 older written languages used letters as attributed to 9s and and might find some numbers, and the system becomes even 1s are quite different, what is vibrationally pleasure in being more confusing. Take the hypothetical so by the stroke of sacred about our associated with some Scottish mystic, McLiv. Numerologically an academic pen, other 4s who showed his name reduces to 5; however, in Mao’s character was language? ” leadership potential. Roman numeration, his name is 1154, changed, which was Alexander the which reduces to 2 - a schizophrenic interesting because he was dead at the Great, Napoleon Bonaparte and Julius Scot no doubt. time. Caesar are all 4s. He is less likely to be You could of course translate the This nonsensical contention is enamoured of some others: Pol Pot, name into English and use our Roman magnified considerably when you Genghis Khan, Joseph Stalin and Attila alphabet to do the job, but why should multiply it by the one billion Chinese. the Hun. I don’t think that even the you? What is vibrationally sacred about Did the characteristics of 20 per cent of staunchest Liberal would suggest that our language? To suggest that something the Earth’s population change because Mr Hawke would feel at home with that is, is to indulge in a rather repugnant some Western academics designed bloodthirsty crew. He would probably ethnocentrism. a different method of spelling their feel a few qualms about Margaret To take a prominent example, let names? Thatcher, but would obviously be delighted with Greg Norman. He may be pleased with John Milton, Buddha and Pythagoras, but Al Capone would give him pause, and Mickey Mouse is 8 3 most unlikely prime ministerial material. or John Howard is an 8, which should give him a stand up start in any contest, 2 as he shares that number with God. He would have few misgivings about being associated with George Bush, but would deny having much in common with Benito Mussolini or Heinrich Himmler. Despite the numerological connection, Mr Howard and Karl Marx would seem to have little in common, nor would Bugs Bunny seem to be a political ally. The leader of the Opposition also shares his number with Wolfgang Amadeus Mozart, Banjo Patterson and George Bernard Shaw, although he has never publicly admitted to skills in music, 4 poetry or literature. He also would appear to have little in common with Uri Geller, Erich von Daniken and the 8 Luton Girls Choir. 2224 The Skeptic September 18

A curious political coalition would seem to be indicated by the fact that Ian 7 Sinclair [former National Party leader], 3 Janine Haines [former Australian Democrats Party leader] and Fred Nile [former Fred Nile Party leader] are all 1s. Would their political philosophy reflect that of Winston Churchill, Mao Zedong or Vladimir Ilyich Lenin? Would their science policy reflect the views of Robyn Williams or Shirley Maclaine? WG Grace would be a natural for Minister for Sport, but would Robin Hood be a good Social Security Minister, sports hater can be bracketed with Allan and would Robert Trimbole [former Border and Dennis Lillee is one of those 6 crime boss] be an appropriate Attorney mysteries concealed in the universal General? vibrations. Phillip’s skeptical connection Defence would be safe in the is revealed by the reduction of the hands of Conan the Barbarian and Australian Skeptics’ phone number to 3. Frankenstein. [It’s now 7!] 7 is alleged to be the number The oddest 3 is undoubtedly Jeanne associated with spiritual leadership and d’Arc, who in the English translation of the fact that Jesus Christ, Jehovah and her name Joan of Arc, is a 2, a number number of the Tyrant is 1. Allah are 7s would seem to support this. she shares with Ronald Reagan, Richard Presumably, if numbers have The trouble is, these names come from Nixon, Leonardo da Vinci, James Cook, relevance to people, then they should other languages and are probably not 7s Bob Menzies, Kermit the Frog, Spike also apply to publications. After all, in those languages. The only one that Milligan, Adolf Hitler and the new paper vibrates too. With this in mind, I seems to fit the bill in English is L. Ron Governor General, Bill Hayden. calculated the number for The Skeptic, 8, Hubbard. A trio of top names in the 9 is represented by Albert Einstein, feeling sure it would match some other 7 ranks are William Shakespeare, Isaac Woody Allen, Paul Keating, Phar Lap, journal of record such as The Times, Newton and Giuseppi Verdi, arguably Joh Bjelke Petersen, Gough Whitlam, The Age or The Sydney Morning Herald. the greatest playwright, scientist and Malcolm Fraser, Mohammed, Bob Imagine my chagrin when the only operatic composer in history. Hope and Duane T. Gish - certainly a other well-known publication which I James Joyce may fit in here, but do variegated group. could find to achieve an 8 was Pravda. Sherlock Holmes and Ned Kelly have Which leaves us with 5. Mohendras In all my research only one fact much in common? The connection Gandhi and Francis of Assisi sharing emerged that lent any credence to between Miss Piggy and channeler with Idi Amin and Jack the Ripper the accuracy of the central tenet of Ramtha is obvious. would seem to be incongruous, as does numerology, and that was the word It seems to be odd that the inventor Hamlet with Jeff Fenech. I suppose itself, with the number 1, exactly of Ramtha, channeler J. Z. Knight, Rembrandt and Don Bradman could matched the phrases puerile tripe, should have a different number, but both be considered old masters. juvenile crap and feeble minded rubbish. perhaps changing your voice changes If anyone is planning to write in (Oh, by the way. Bo Derek was not a your personality. Knight is a 6, as is and suggest that four of the most 10, she was only a 6.) . Skeptics Patron Dick Smith, who would bloodthirsty tyrants in history Genghis be more comfortable with Australian Khan, Attila the Hun, Pol Pot and Note: This classic Catch article was first of the Year Kay Cottee than with Stalin are all together in the 4 list, let published in The Skeptic, Vol 9 No 1 Ms Knight. Other prominent 6s are me suggest that none of those names Autumn 1989. Abraham Lincoln, Martin Luther, John were their real ones; they are all from Cleese, Edna Everage, and Dracula. different language groups all using Skeptics patron Phillip Adams (3) is different alphabets, and some possibly a natural to share with Tut Ankh Amon having no written language at all, and and Santa Claus (if you can imagine in at least one case, Attila, he could not Santa dressed in black), however if he have been known by that name in his About the author: shares the musical talent of Ludwig von own life. “The” is an English word and Sir Jim R Wallaby was Beethoven and Giacomo Puccini, he Attila was dead long before the English one of Australia’s leading has never made it public. How such a language was invented. In any case, the marsupials. 47 FEATURE UFOs Over the Hills

Brian Dunning looks at the story of Betty and Barney Hill, the original UFO abduction story.

t was shortly before midnight on ISeptember 19, 1961 when Betty and Barney Hill had the experience which was to shape all of modern alien folklore. They were driving from Canada to Portsmouth, New Hampshire. Near the resort of Indian Head, New Hampshire, they stopped their Betty and Barney Hill with car in the middle of Route 3 to observe their Interrupted Journey, a strange light moving through the sky. and a New Hampshire sign The next thing they knew, they were marks the spot, about 35 miles further along on their trip, and several hours had elapsed. Betty telephoned their close friend, and reproduce later, Major Paul Henderson at nearby and which has been Pease Air Force Base, to report a UFO identified as showing sighting. Major Henderson found that Zeta Reticuli as the this was corroborated by two separate aliens’ home planet. UFO reports from radar data from two After the experiments, different Air Force installations nearby. they were taken back All three reports are officially recorded to their car in a dazed sessions. In fact, that turns out not to in Project Blue Book. condition, and sent along their way. be the case at all. It’s important to note Then Betty began having nightmares Innumerable books and movies were that it was more than two years after two weeks later. In her nightmares, made about the Betty and Barney Hill the incident that the Hills underwent she described being taken aboard an abduction. It was the introduction of hypnosis. During those two years, Betty alien spacecraft and having medical the gray alien into popular culture. It was writing and rewriting her accounts experiments performed. As a result of was also the beginning of the entire of her dreams. All of the significant these nightmares, Betty and Barney “alien abduction” phenomenon. The details you may have heard about the decided to undergo hypnosis. In physical evidence of the star map and Hills’ medical experiments came from separate sessions, they described nearly the radar reports are said to have both Betty’s two years of writings: a long identical experiences of being taken on withstood all scrutiny. In fact, you needle inserted into her navel; the board the alien spacecraft by what we almost never hear a critical treatment star map; the aliens’ fascination with now call gray aliens: short beings with of their story. Barney’s dentures; the examination of huge black eyes and smooth gray skin. both Betty and Barney’s genitals; and Both of the Hills had a whole spectrum THE OBSESSION the overall chronology of the episode, of tests done. Betty was shown a star Much of the Hill story is said to be including being met on the ground map which she was able to memorise based on these separate hypnosis by the aliens, a leader coming forward 48 The Skeptic September 18

and escorting them to exam rooms, incident, but Betty Hill stuck around Yes, it’s possible that it could have the aliens’ general demeanour and long enough for her credibility to pushed her further in that direction, but individual personalities, and the way be pretty thoroughly demonstrated. Betty had commonly spoken of UFOs they spoke to Betty in English but to Skeptical Inquirer columnist Robert even before 1961, including one story Barney via telepathy. Betty wrote all of Shaeffer wrote: “I was present at the she often told of her sister’s own close this based only on what she claims were National UFO Conference in New York encounter in 1957. her dreams, and probably told the story City in 1980, at which Betty presented So here’s what we have so far: A to Barney over and over again until his some of the UFO photos she had taken. woman who clearly had an obsession ears fell off over a period of two years, She showed what must have been well with UFOs saw a light in the sky that before they ever had any hypnosis. over two hundred slides, mostly of blips, her husband described as an airplane. During those blurs, and blobs against a She then spent two years writing an two years, Barney’s Betty was jeered dark background. These elaborate story and no doubt telling and own recollection “ were supposed to be UFOs retelling it to her husband. Later, under was somewhat less off the stage by coming in close, chasing hypnosis, Barney was asked about the dramatic. When they what had been at her car, landing, etc. events described in Betty’s story, and first saw the light in “After her talk had surprise surprise, he retold the story the sky, Betty said first a sympathetic exceeded about twice its she’d already told him a hundred times, she thought it was a audience. allotted time, Betty was with an added dash from The Outer spacecraft, but Barney ” literally jeered off the Limits episode of twelve days before. So always said he thought stage by what had been far, we have a tale that’s hard to consider it was an airplane. at first a very sympathetic audience. reliable. Betty’s written description of the This incident, witnessed by many of characters in her nightmare depicted UFOlogy’s leaders and top activists, short guys with black hair and “Jimmy removed any lingering doubts about Durante” noses. It was only in Barney Betty’s credibility - she had none. In the Hill’s hypnosis sessions that we got oft-repeated words of one UFOlogist the first description of skinny figures who accompanied Betty on a UFO with gray skin, large bald heads, and vigil in 1977, she was ‘unable to huge black eyes. After Betty Hill heard distinguish between a landed UFO these sessions, suddenly her own and a streetlight’. In 1995, Betty Hill hypnosis accounts began to describe wrote a self-published book, A Common the same type of character, and from Sense Approach to UFOs. It is filled with that moment on, she never again obviously delusional stories, such as mentioned her original Jimmy Durante seeing squadrons of UFOs in flight and guys. Many modern accounts wrongly a truck levitating above the freeway.” state that her original nightmares also She also once wrote in a 1966 letter: described grays. “Barney and I go out frequently at night Although the popular version of for one reason or another. Since last events is that Barney Hill’s hypnosis October, we have seen our ‘friends’ on description is the first appearance the average of eight of a so-called gray alien in modern or nine times out of culture, that first appearance actually every ten trips.” But came twelve days earlier, on national is it possible that television, in an episode of The Outer Betty’s obsession Limits called “The Bellero Shield”. The with UFOs could alien in that episode shared most of the have been caused by significant physical characteristics with her trauma from a the alien in Barney’s story: bald head, genuine abduction? gray skin, big wraparound eyes. The Hills stated they did not watch it and Top: The original gray didn’t know about it. alien of The Outer Remember: Before examining the Limits; and right: the specific claims made in a fantastic Hills’ story presented story, you should check the source of on TV in 1975 (with a the story for credibility. Barney Hill pre-Star Wars James died only a few years after the alleged Earl Jones as Barney) . 0349 ARTICLE UFOs

Over the Hills Betty Hill’s drawing of an alien star map Continued...

random and imprecise to make any THE EVIDENCE kind of useful interpretation. But then there are those three items With its third dimension removed, said to be physical evidence of the Betty’s map cannot contain any useful Hill abduction: first, the star map positional information. Even if she hand drawn by Betty by memory had somehow drawn a perfect 3D map from one shown to her aboard the that did exactly align with known star spacecraft; second, the purple dress positions, it still wouldn’t be evidence she was wearing on that night, kept the zipper of which she found to be of anything other than that such for forty years in her closet, torn and torn. She then hung it in the closet. reference material is widely available, in covered with mysterious dust; and Two years later, after the hypnosis, she sources like the Gliese Star Catalogue. third, reports in the Air Force’s official got it out and said there was strange We would not conclude that an alien Project Blue Book stating that radar pink dust on it. She hung it up again, abduction is the only reasonable way confirmed the presence of a UFO on this time for forty years, when a group that Betty could have learned seven or that night at two separate Air Force of crop circle investigators examined eight star positions during those two facilities in the area, both within hours it. They concluded the dress had an years. of the Hills’ claimed abduction. Let’s “anomalous biological substance” And so, there we have it. The Betty look at those first. on it. While a good stretch of the & Barney Hill abduction story has The first report was from Pease Air imagination might consider this to be every indication of being merely an Force Base, about 82 miles southeast consistent with the abduction story, it’s inventive tale from the mind of a of Indian Head, at 2:14am. The Hills also consistent with perfectly natural lifelong UFO fanatic. Despite the got home in Portsmouth at 5:00 in explanations, namely, 40 years of dust best efforts of authors to bolster it the morning on September 20. Their mites, moths, and mould. I don’t find with mischaracterised or exaggerated story states that they came to after their the Great Purple Dress Caper to be evidence, it is unsupported by any medical experiments about 35 miles good evidence of anything. useful evidence, and is perfectly south of Indian Head, near the town of So the only thing we’re left with is consistent with the purely natural Ashland. From Ashland to Portsmouth Betty’s star map. In her original written explanation. . is about an hour and 45 minute drive, stories, she described the aliens’ star so they came to in their car around map as three dimensional. Under This article first appeared on Skeptoid 3:15. This chronology puts Pease hypnosis, she redrew it on paper, in #124, October 2008. AFB’s UFO radar evidence squarely two dimensions. It’s seven or eight in the middle of the Hills’ three hours random dots connected by lines, and Editor’s note: Though the similarities of medical experiments aboard the it’s quite rough and by no means are interesting, it should be pointed out spaceship, which they say was sitting precise. that the characters of Betty and Barney on the ground the whole time. If the Several years later, a schoolteacher Rubble of the long-running cartoon Hills’ story is true, the Pease AFB named Marjorie Fish read a book series The Flintstones appeared several report must be an unrelated event. about the Hills. She then took beads years before Betty and Barney Hill The second report is from North and strings and converted her living made their appearance on the public Concord Air Force Station, a small room into a three dimensional stage. The Rubbles are seen in the hilltop radar station (closed in 1963) version of the galaxy based on the original pilot episode of The Flintstones that was about 40 miles north of 1969 Gliese Star Catalogue. She then (actually a 90-second demo reel called Indian Head, at 5:22pm on September spent several years viewing her galaxy The Flagstones) which was produced in 19. This is about seven hours before from different angles, trying to find a 1959. the Hills observed their light in the match for Betty’s map, and eventually sky. It clearly does not corroborate concluded that Zeta Reticuli was the About the author: the Hills’ sighting. The reports in alien homeworld. Other UFOlogists Brian Dunning is host Project Blue Book note each target’s have proposed innumerable different and producer of the extremely high altitude and low speed, interpretations. Carl Sagan and other award-winning podcast, and conclude that each was probably a astronomers have said that it is not Skeptoid: Critical Analysis weather balloon. even a good match for Zeta Reticuli, of Pop Phenomena Next we have Betty’s purple dress, and that Betty’s drawing is far too (www.skeptoid.com). 50 ARE YOU SKEPTICAL? Are reason, science, education, critical thinking and common sense important to you? Then you should subscribe to The Skeptic.

The Skeptic investigates pseudoscience and paranormal beliefs and practices from a rational and scientific perspective. Sometimes humorous, often sobering and always fascinating, The Skeptic is published quarterly in digital and hard copy formats.

Post or fax this form, phone us or visit www.skeptics.com.au/shop

... and while you’re at it, take advantage of our new feature – subscribers who choose the hard copy format can also get the digital version for Free!

Tick the box on this form or online.

Subscription details: Name: …………………………………………………......

Address: ………………………………………...... ………………………...... …….

……………...... Phone: …………………………………......

Email: ………………………………......

Credit card details (Visa or MasterCard only)

Name on Card: …………………...... …......

Card Number: ..…..…...... / ..…..…...... / ..…...... …../ ..…...... …../

Expiry date: ..…..…...... / ..…...... ….. CCV: ..…..…...... …..

Signature: ……………......

Please specify (tick): 1 year hard copy (print magazine) subscription [ ] $44.00* 3 year hard copy (print magazine) subscription [ ] $120.00* 1 year digital (PDF) subscription [ ] $22.00 3 year digital (PDF) subscription [ ] $60.00

Hard copy subscribers – would you also like the digital version for free? Tick here [ ] *Overseas subscribers please add A$25pa for airmail delivery (hard copy edition only) Australian Skeptics Inc. www.skeptics.com.au

Send to: The Skeptic PO Box 20, Ph: (02) 8094 1894 —Mobile: 0432 713 195 Beecroft, NSW 2119 Fax: (02) 8088 4735—email: [email protected] REGULARS

The cycle of life PENMANSHIP Writing, profiling, testing, and woo. Graphology is the analysis of handwriting, purporting to identify personality characteristics And so it goes, the almost inevitable of the writer. (As such it should be differentiated from realisation that all knowledge is handwriting analysis which describes the identification of writers by their writing, often used in forensic circum- connected and connectable. stances.) The British Institute of Graphologists says graphology is “a blend of art and science. It is a science because it measures the structure and movement of the written forms - slants, angles and spacing are accurately calculated and the ALTERNATIVE VIEWS pressure is observed in magnification and with precision. And In his later work, Eysenck it is an art because the graphologist has constantly to keep in gave attention to parapsychology mind the total context in which the writing is taking place: and astrology, believing that empirical the ‘gestalt’ of the writing as a whole.” evidence supported the existence of paranormal abilities, in the process attracting criticism from skeptics. Despite his fame and reputation in the profession, he had a sometimes prickly relationship with the British Psychological Society. He criticised it for being “remote from the ordinary membership”, and was denied a Fellowship. However, after his death, the BPS established the Hans Eysenck Memorial Lecture. The BPS itself was critical of his alternative interests, and in Psychological Testing: A User’s Guide (1995), ranked a variety of procedures used in personnel decision-making, ranging from What goes around ... “Job simulations (high validity)” to

“graphology/astrology (zero validity)”. BEHAVIOUR THERAPY Hans Jurgen Eysenck, PhD, DSc (1916- 1997) was a German-born psychologist who spent his professional career in Great Britain. He is best remembered for his work on intelligence and personality. At the time of his death, Eysenck was the most frequently cited British psychologist in peer-reviewed scientific literature. He believed that scientific methodology was required for progress in personality psychology, and in his early work Eysenck was an especially strong critic of psychoanalysis as a form of therapy, preferring behaviour therapy. He was particularly critical of Freud and his methods and wrote a book criticising them entitled Decline and Fall of the Hans Eysenck, and son Michael, both Freudian Empire. noted psychologists. Source: Wikipedia, except where noted

52 The Skeptic September 18

HISTORICAL WRITINGS PENMANSHIP Despite the Institute’s claims, graphology is Graphology is the analysis of handwriting, regarded as pseudoscience. Nonetheless, it does have purporting to identify personality characteristics a long heritage, with Spanish physician Juan Huarte de San of the writer. (As such it should be differentiated from Juan (below left) referring to it in his 1575 Examen de ingenios para handwriting analysis which describes the identification las ciencias (The Examination of Men’s Wits). Jean-Hippolyte Michon of writers by their writing, often used in forensic circum- founded the Société Graphologique in 1871. Alfred Binet (1857-1911) stances.) The British Institute of Graphologists says was a French psychologist (below, second from left) who is credited with graphology is “a blend of art and science. It is a science because inventing the first reliable intelligence test. He called graphology “the it measures the structure and movement of the written forms science of the future” despite rejection of his results by graphologists. - slants, angles and spacing are accurately calculated and the As unsubstantiated as it is, the main applications of graphology are psychological analysis, marital compatibility, employment pressure is observed in magnification and with precision. And The ‘science’ of graphology has profiling, and even medical diagnosis (although this is it is an art because the graphologist has constantly to keep in been with us for centuries, and is mind the total context in which the writing is taking place: often not regarded as graphology, pertaining more the ‘gestalt’ of the writing as a whole.” to motor control, eg symptoms of still wrong. strokes).

PROFILING Its use for assessing potential employees is probably the best known application of pure graphology, and often the most controversial. Job applicants should know that any job advertisement that asks for applications in writing may find their prospects at least partially decided by graphological analysis. Research in employment suitability has ranged from complete failure to guarded success, as well as being criticised on ethical grounds. Although graphology had some support in What goes around ... the scientific community before the mid-twentieth century, more recent research rejects the validity of PERSONALITY THEORY graphology as a tool to assess personality and job A 1982 meta-analysis drawn from over 200 performance, with studies being consistently studies concluded that graphologists were generally negative, with one study describing it as unable to predict any kind of personality trait on “useless... absolutely hopeless”. any personality test. In a 1987 study, graphologists were unable to predict scores on the Eysenck Personality Questionnaire (EPQ) using writing samples from the same people. The EPQ was devised by psychologists Hans and Sybil Eysenck. Hans Eysenck’s theory is based primarily on physiology and genetics. Although he was a behaviourist who considered learned habits of great importance, he believed that personality differences grow out of our genetic inheritance. He was, therefore, primarily interested in what is usually called temperament. A key area is in employment profiling - “applications in writing, please”. Source: Wikipedia, except where noted

53 REVIEWS Society

A tidal wave of beneficent trends Enlightenment Now By Stephen Pinker THE CAUSE OF IT ALL Allen Lane, A$35.00 But Pinker is not simply a Pollyanna, exclaiming at how wonderful everything is. He has a theory as to what underlies all these wonderful trends, and he also thinks that there is a threat to the entire ome years ago, Stephen Pinker’s process. As the title of his book suggests, he regards Sbook The Better Angels of Our the Enlightenment as being a key cause of all this Nature made a great impression. In this human improvement. book – using over a thousand pages What do we mean by the Enlightenment? of text and 100 diagrams – Pinker Pinker concedes that, unlike the Olympics, supported his case that, over the long there was no opening and closing ceremony: run, human beings are becoming less you can argue about it endlessly (Pinker 2018: violent toward each other. There were 7-8). However, he distinguishes some features of exceptions to the decline in violence, Enlightenment thinking. One theme is the use but Pinker seemed to make a powerful of reason, which leads to doubt and questioning. case for his argument. In addition, he Another is the refinement of reason to understand presented a list of factors which, in his the world. (Personally I regard this as an extension view, led to this decline in violence. of reason, or using it in a special way.) Part of this Since that time, Pinker’s argument understanding involves knowing ourselves, and has been verified. Johan Norberg how our minds and bodies work. A third attribute (2016), a Swedish writer, and Angus is humanism, involving a morality which privileges Deaton (2013), a Nobel prize-winner human welfare. Finally there is a belief in progress. in economics, have come to the same Pinker stresses that these basic themes are not conclusion. The key finding, the long-term decline absolute: people are not completely reasonable, nor in interpersonal violence, has to be welcome to is progress guaranteed. everyone. Its sheer magnitude sometimes takes an As he works through all the trends operating effort to grasp. For example, an Englishman living in in the world today, Pinker tries to link them the 1300s was twenty times as likely to die violently back to Enlightenment influences. For example, as an Englishman in the twentieth century (Pinker Enlightenment thinking values commerce 2012:73). Overall, Pinker’s case for the trend away because it involves free exchange and economic from violence seems to be well supported. improvement. Although commerce can be tough Now Pinker has returned with another book, at times, it creates wealth and is far, far better than titled Enlightenment Now. It is short compared war, destruction and murder. Again, Enlightenment to the other book – only 550-odd pages and 75 thought leads to the questioning of cruel judicial diagrams – but far more ambitious. He documents punishments. the evidence that the human condition is improving In my view, the least convincing of Pinker’s on more than a dozen important measures. And he arguments is the one over inequality. His chapter has a single underlying theory to explain this. on this is largely a response to the French Rather than list all the trends, I will put them in economist Thomas Piketty (2013). Using massive a separate table, with an example or two for each. amounts of evidence, Piketty argued that western Cast your eyes over the table. I suggest looking at nations are becoming less equal. Capital, for several the examples for Life, Wealth, and Knowledge. Let decades, has grown faster than wages, and this me stress that in the hundreds of pages and dozens means that the top few per cent of the population of illustrations which make up Pinker’s book, there are accumulating more and more wealth, while are far more trends than I can list here. And all the bottom half are making almost no progress at point in the same direction: the human condition all. Pinker’s counter-argument is that, in absolute worldwide is improving. terms, even the poorest people are better off than Usually these improvements took place first in they used to be (pp97-120). My personal view is Europe and North America. However, the other that if some people are becoming poorer relative to parts of the world are improving too, and usually everyone else, it is little comfort to learn that they catching up with the leaders. are better off than previous generations. I suspect 54 The Skeptic September 18

that events like the election of Trump and the vote As Pinker points out, this gloom is not based on for Brexit are at least in part an outburst against evidence, and again and again has been shown to adverse economic trends. be unjustified (pp39-52). Unlike the earlier book, Enlightenment Now He has a series of explanations as to why has attracted a great deal of criticism. One reason is intellectuals argue – wrongly – that things are that Pinker focuses a good deal of scorn on western getting worse. One explanation is the relentless liberal intellectuals, who are overwhelmingly focus of the popular media on violence; no matter gloomy about society and the way it is going. what the overall crime rate, if there is a drug- crazed shooting or an atrocity, the media will focus upon it. This distorts our understanding Table 1. MAJOR TRENDS CHARTED BY PINKER, WITH SELECTED EXAMPLES because we use the “availability heuristic” (pp41-2). Life Life expectancy is increasing. Around 1780, world life expectancy for When we readily remember an event, we assume humans was about 30 years. Today it is 71.4 years. (Pinker 2018: 53-4 ). Major things generally are like that event. So we may be diseases are in decline, often because of mass vaccination (Pinker 2018: 64). disgusted by what has happened in Syria or the Yemen, or what was done to the Rohingya and Sustenance The food supply per person is increasing and so childhood stunting and regard these as characterising our age. As Pinker famine deaths are in decline (Pinker 2018: 70-71). The size of families is argues, however, in previous ages there were far decreasing, too: apparently once parents are reasonably sure that their more such atrocities, and they were accepted almost children will survive, they stop having large families (Pinker 2018: 125). without comment. In addition, gloomy pessimism Wealth GDP per capita is increasing worldwide and as a result extreme poverty is is often regarded as being far more profound than falling. In 1820, nearly 90% of the world’s population lived on US$1.90 (2011 optimism – even when the optimism is supported dollars) or less. Today only about 10% live on so little (Pinker 2018: 87). by evidence and the pessimism isn’t.

Another reason why Pinker’s book has attracted Inequality Inequality may be increasing, but the general trend is for everyone to criticism is because of what he calls “counter- become richer (Pinker 2018: 120) Enlightenments” (pp29-35). The Enlightenment The Environment Because of advancing technology, the risk of environmental catastrophe has suffered a series of reactions from religious is receding, and most environmental indicators are improving (Pinker and nationalist groups, and also from ideologies 2018:132-3). of the right and left. These movements do not accept evidence-based arguments and so are Peace The peaceful trends discerned in Pinker’s earlier book are shown to have uncomfortable with the optimistic message of continued (Pinker 2018: 157-9). Pinker’s book. He makes this explicit when, partway through, he writes: “In writing the Safety Steady reduction in vehicle accident deaths, plane crash deaths and most other forms of accidental death (Pinker 2018: 179-182). chapters on progress, I resisted pressure from readers of earlier drafts to end each one by warning, Terrorism Worldwide, deaths by terrorism are dwarfed by those from war and ‘But all this progress is threatened if Donald Trump accidents (Pinker 2018: 192) gets his way.’ Threatened it certainly is.” (p334)

Then he reviews the progress achieved in various Democracy Despite recent hiccups, Pinker cites the Polity Project as showing a steady fields, and points out that President Trump’s advance for democracy in the world (http://www.systemicpeace.org/polity/ actions and words appear to oppose nearly all of polity1.htm) (Pinker 2018; 207). it. In addition, the various nationalist outbursts in Equal Rights A general rise in liberal values in nearly all areas of the world over the last 50 Europe could also threaten further progress. There years (Pinker 2018: 227). A decline in racist, sexist and homophobic jokes on is, Pinker stresses, nothing certain about continued the internet (Pinker 2018: 218). improvements, and so the Enlightenment is well

worth defending. Knowledge Great rises in literacy worldwide (Pinker 2018: 238). Back in 1475 20% or less of the people in European nations were literate. Today over 90% are, and the SCIENCE AND SKEPTICISM rest of the world is improving too. Now the Enlightenment is the basis for two other Quality of Life Decline in working hours in Europe and the USA, decline in housework important features of modern society. One is hours, rise in useful household devices. Increase in leisure time (Pinker 2018: science, the other skepticism. Pinker (pp392-3) 249-256) points out that science rests on two key ideals. One is that the world is comprehensible to our minds. Happiness Reported life satisfaction is correlated with physical wellbeing, and seems to be improving (Pinker 2018: 269-279) This is borne out by the success of science. The other assumption is that we should allow the world Existential Threats The worldwide stock of nuclear weapons is diminishing (Pinker 2018: 318), to tell us what it is like. The traditional sources of and doom-laden predictions have repeatedly been proved wrong (Pinker 2018: 309) belief, and the traditional authorities, are generators of error. Only by carefully formulating theories, and 55 REVIEWS Society + Magic

being willing to accept that the evidence may show but not the only one: If we discard Enlightenment them to be wrong, can we make scientific progress. thought, we will suffer in the long run. Skepticism, of course, stems from a similar set of As a retiree, I have often worried about what ideals. Skeptics examine certain types of belief and kind of a world we are leaving our children and question whether they are supported by evidence. grandchildren. The short answer appears to It does not matter to skeptics who holds certain be: with some exceptions, a lot better than the beliefs, or whether they stem from one ideology or world we found. Provided we don’t lose sight of another. The key question is, does the world tell us Enlightenment values, the future promises to be that they are true? much better than the past.

IS PINKER RIGHT? - Reviewed by Martin Bridgstock Broadly, there are two different ways in which Pinker’s argument can be questioned. Is his REFERENCES evidence for massive, worldwide progress in a Deaton, Angus. (2013). The Great Escape. Health, wealth and whole range of fields justified? And is his stress the origins of inequality. Oxford and Princeton, Princeton upon the Enlightenment as a key element in this University Press. progress justified? The answer to the first question Norberg, J. (2016). Progress: Ten reasons to look forward to is almost certainly yes. Pinker makes his sources the future, London, Oneworld. of information clear, and it is easy to check them. Piketty, Thomas. (2013). Capital in the twenty-first century. He gets his facts right. The second question is Cambridge, Mass., Harvard University Press. more complex. Norberg (2016), for example, Pinker, Steven. (2018). Enlightenment Now. The case for uses the same evidence as Pinker, but traces the reason, science, humanism and progress. Cambridge, improvements to free enterprise rather than the Mass., Harvard University Press. Enlightenment. My personal judgment is that the Pinker, Steven. (2012). The Better Angels of our Nature. Enlightenment is a key feature in current progress, London, Penguin.

Indian magicians influenced Western performers Charmers a great deal, especially in the nineteenth century when they started coming to Europe in larger Empire of Enchantment: The Story of Indian Magic numbers, and the local magicians, under threat By John Zubrzycki from the Indians’ popularity, started taking on Indian names and costume. Scribe, A$35.00 But there is a major difference between the two. As Zubrzycki recently told the ABC, Indian magic has a strong link to religion, specifically Hinduism, his is not a mainstream skeptical where people worship Indra, the god of magic. Tbook, though there are many “In the West the conjurer will not make any skeptics who like a bit of magic, pretences to the fact that what he or she is doing enjoying being fooled and suggesting is anything other than magic based on scientific or every possible (and normally overly- rational grounds. In India, even your lowly street complicated) explanation for how a conjurer will play with the boundaries between trick was done. The fact that skeptical secular and religious magic, and use that to enhance pioneers James Randi and Ray his own powers, or his own hold over his audience.” Hyman are magicians and conjurers Zubrzycki’s book is full of descriptions the most (Randi’s preferred term) is indicative amazing tricks – try lifting a small boy off the of the interest and the potential to use ground with a sword through his neck – and covers magical knowledge and expertise to the rise and fall of Indian magicians both in the reveal the true nature of psychic claims. West and, more severely, in India itself. John Zubrzycki is an Australian who For anyone interested in magic, and the truth has worked in India as a diplomat, about the Indian rope trick, this is a good review of consultant, tour guide and journalist, a popular part of culture … and religion. with Indian and Western stage magic being the subject of his doctoral thesis. - Reviewed by Tim Mendham 56 FORUM Conspiracies The Skeptic September 18 Why bother with the NWO In which are discussed Illuminati, lizard people, Steve Jobs, and the pointlessness of monopolies

onspiracy theories can be fun – her influential articles, blaming much of the Cthe more ludicrous, the better preceding revolutions and global turmoil on – and some of the most enduring coordinated Jewish subterfuge. Robert Shea and conspiracy theories concern Robert Wilson’s Illuminatus trilogy of novels secret societies and the so-called in the 1970s is credited with popularising the “New World Order”. Anxieties Illuminati in fiction, with world-controlling about wealthy, influential elites secret societies frequently showing up in books, controlling the world from films and video games since then. behind the scenes have persisted The real Illuminati fizzled out in the late for centuries, and usually invoke the 1800s, but fear-mongering about a fictitious dreaded “Illuminati”. version has never left us. The Bavarian Illuminati did briefly Pundits like David Icke and Mark Dice have exist as a secular, rational, anti-superstition gathered large followings from their books and fraternity founded by German professor lectures on the New World Order, and YouTube Adam Weishaupt in 1776. A product of the contains thousands of videos in which people Above: The Eye of Enlightenment, the organisation was committed meticulously comb through popular media for Providence in the reverse to opposing political corruption and religious supposed Illuminati symbolism. The Illuminati of the Great Seal of the influence on public life, and proclaimed their are allegedly behind every war, crisis, or tragedy United States intent to “put an end to the machinations of the you can think of, and practically every celebrity Below: One of a dozen purveyors of injustice, to control them without or person of power has been accused of being an books on the dominating them”. Illuminatus (the term for Illuminati members), Illuminati written by The Illuminati attempted expansion from the Queen of the United Kingdom to Adam Weishaupt throughout Germany and tenuous alliances with Stanley Kubrick to Jay-Z, Lady Gaga, and any Freemasonry, but was fraught number of US presidents. with internal division, and the Icke goes a step further and claims that these society was ultimately outlawed by powerful people are actually blood-drinking alien Bavarian ruler Duke Karl Theodor lizard-people. in 1785. In 1797 and 1798, French CONSPIRACIES Jesuit priest Augustin Barruel Illuminati conspiracy theories, like most and Scottish physicist John conspiracy theories, have little to no basis in fact, Robison independently wrote and usually grow from an overactive sense of treatises alleging the Illuminati scepticism, latching onto non-existent patterns of corrupting Freemasonry and and huge dollops of confirmation bias. having orchestrated the French Many people erroneously cite the reverse of Revolution. Circulation of these the Great Seal of the United States, and the Eye documents in the United States of Providence within, as proof of the Illuminati, set Illuminati paranoia in motion, viewing it as a symbol of Freemasonry, a real with sermons and newspaper fraternity often lumped together with the coverage of Barruel and Robison’s Illuminati. Eye-in-triangle imagery has existed theories. since at least Ancient Egyptian times, and while Interest in the Illuminati waxed the Eye of Providence is an icon of Freemasonry, and waned in the nineteenth it wasn’t commonly adopted by the Freemasons century, but British anti-Semitic until 1797, fifteen years after the creation of historian Nesta Webster brought the Great Seal. Benjamin Franklin was the only the Illuminati back into the public confirmed Mason on the Seal design committee, consciousness in the 1920s with and his ideas were not used (except for the 57 FORUM Conspiracies

Why bother ... continued formed the basis for Mac OS X, after Apple eventually acquired NeXT and Jobs returned as CEO. In 1995, while Jobs was still running NeXT, he motto, “E Pluribus Unum”). was interviewed for the TV series Triumph of the Pierre Eugene du Simitiere is credited with Nerds. During the interview, Jobs opined on how suggesting the Eye itself and for the Seal’s final technology companies can stagnate once they design, which depicts the Eye of God shining his achieve a monopoly position in their industry. approval over an unfinished pyramid representing Jobs noted that Pepsi Co would rarely change the US’s original thirteen colonies. their core products due to their large and stable The Eye of Providence is frequently regarded as market share, meaning that sales and marketing a shady symbol of the secret Masonic/Illuminati people usually got promoted and ran the government, but it actually has quite innocent company more often than product or design historical origins. people. Jobs saw the same trend occurring in big I place little stock in New World Order technology companies such as IBM and Xerox. conspiracy theories for several reasons. “If you were a product person at IBM or First of all, the world is dysfunctional enough, Xerox ... So you make a better copier or a better through logical and visible (if often utterly mad) computer: so what? When you have a monopoly causes, without invoking some unseen hand. market share, the company’s not any more As Fernando Espino remarked successful,” Jobs remarked. in a 2009 article for Cracked, Once they reach these “It’s almost as if the result of monopoly positions, these tech their ‘one-world government’ companies lose the incentive to conspiracy looks exactly like the innovate, and no longer make random chaos of geopolitical great products for their customers; events we’ve seen for the last few in effect, they’re at the top, so they thousand years.” don’t have to try anymore. Secondly, if the world really This complacent mentality, Jobs is under the control of a secret asserts, causes product people to society, what could I possibly do be “driven out of the decision- about it? making forums”, leaving sales and On that note, politicians, marketing leaders who “have no pharmaceutical CEOs, media conception of the craftsmanship conglomerates, bankers, social needed to take a good idea and media empires, big celebrities turn it into a good product”’ and and other high-profile people “no feeling in their hearts, usually, technically do run the world on about wanting to really help the a social and financial level; they customer”. just don’t run it collectively. The This kind of tech company Trilateral Commission and the complacency is prevalent in the Bilderberg Group are just annual think-tank entertainment world. gatherings of rich people, and the United Nations Reboots, sequels and tired franchises are isn’t nearly as powerful as you’d think. rampant in Hollywood, with a trend of film I also believe that corporate monopolies can companies releasing rushed movies in order to illustrate why New World Order conspiracies are retain ownership of their creative properties, not generally such a waste of time. out of any particular artistic drive. Powerful game publishers like Ubisoft, THE JOBS CONNECTION Electronic Arts, and Activision are dominated In 1985, Apple co-founder Steve Jobs resigned by marketing types who don’t care about games from Apple under pressure from its board of as art or entertainment. These publishers have directors, after his groundbreaking Macintosh their products sliced up for future purchase and/ computer proved a costly, underperforming or saturated with insidious microtransactions. liability. After Jobs left Apple, he helped establish Their tent-pole franchises, such as Battlefield, Call the animation studio Pixar and founded the of Duty, Far Cry and Assassin’s Creed, while still computer company NeXT. The NextStep enjoyable, come across as incrementally-different operating system in Jobs’s NeXT computers cookie-cutter games with little progress from one 58 The Skeptic September 18

instalment to the next. governance. Maybe the Illuminati are a bunch of Jobs’ words from 1995 were metaphorical sales and marketing guys who don’t also eerily prophetic about know how to properly serve the ‘customer’ (us). Apple’s current state. Under his Well, if Barruel and Robison are to be stewardship, Apple products believed, four years is an absurdly short amount were usually very proprietary of time for a dissolved fraternity to have gathered and closed-architecture enough influence, in a totally different country (meaning that they’re hard for and with nobody finding out, to cause the French users to modify), but Jobs still Revolution. seemed committed to making Moreover, the unfocused, contradictory and products that were stylish, oppressive behaviour of the Illuminati just feels stable and easy to use. like run-of-the-mill government to me; once Today, Apple has a again, the world is corrupt and dysfunctional mindboggling market value enough without a “power behind the throne”. of one trillion dollars US, but American politics are in shambles, the Middle its current CEO, Tim Cook, East is falling apart, dictators still operate in has more of a production and full force, and civil and minority rights are still executive background, and the routinely trampled in the Western world. company has made a slew of Either the Illuminati are doing a shitty job of foolish, anti-consumer decisions running the world – and this chaos can easily since Jobs’ death in 2011. These be attributed to the evident incompetence and/ include computers even more or cruelty of regular people and politicians – or Adam Weishaupt (1748- closed in design and resistant to user-servicing they’re indulging in needless self-sabotage. 1830), philosopher, (the 2016 Macbook Pro’s RAM is soldered to The world being inherently unstable, and the professor of law, and the motherboard), a company-wide omission of Illuminati being a non-existent but attractive founder of the Order of CD drives, a lack of ports on their laptops, and point of blame, is more plausible than either the Illuminati. removing the headphone jack from the iPhone 7 possibility. onwards so users have to buy proprietary wireless Expressing his contempt for Webster’s ‘ear buds’. conspiracy articles, Anglo-French historian Hilaire Belloc wrote: “There is a type of unstable MONOPOLIES AND ILLUMINATI mind which cannot rest without morbid Now, let’s bring this perspective on monopolistic imaginings, and the conception of a single cause stagnation and apply it to the Illuminati. simplifies thought. With this good woman Let’s assume that a wealthy, influential secret [Webster], it is the Jews, with some people it society called the Illuminati does control the is the Jesuits, with others the Freemasons and world from behind the scenes. Manipulating so on.” With some it’s the Illuminati or blood- media, politics and the course of history across drinking alien lizard-men, or all of the above. the globe, the Illuminati would effectively hold a “The world is more complex than that.” ‘monopoly’ on control. Internet-based critic and author Bob ‘Movie- Given this monopolistic dominion over Bob’ Chipman observed, in a 2011 video for the every level of human society, all the tragedy and site The Escapist, that conspiracy theories can be geopolitical conflict the Illuminati are credited comforting for some people. They don’t want to with comes across as redundant. What point accept that their leaders and people in power can would there be in deliberately destabilising the be corrupt and incompetent – in other words, world, thereby effectively making their own jobs flawed and human – so they concoct a sinister harder? Why would they disrupt the world they secret power to explain the direction the world control, all the while showing off sly clues to is taking (and such fears aren’t very far removed their own existence? from right-wing hysteria about “Cultural If you control the world, you can’t really Marxism”). control it more. New World Order conspiracy theories reflect Like with IBM, Xerox and Apple, if you’re at a fear of facing reality, and Jobs’s insights on the top, you may no longer feel compelled to try. stagnating monopolies handily quash any notion The real Bavarian Illuminati had admirable of the Illuminati putting so much effort into ideals, so maybe, after the hypothetical Illuminati pointless global conflict. gained monopoly on global control, they became complacent and lost touch with just, efficient Seth Lukas Hynes 59 LETTERS To the Editor

the subject of urgent rational inquiry. Per- What you think ... haps before this initiative proceeds too far, someone should drain a few different sorts of believers of blood, as well as our volunteer Concerns about blood drive skeptics, and then try transfusing these iden- tified bloods to patients in need, and note the consequences for patients categorised as t the August Skeptics in the Pub and usually entitled over and above the having beliefs or an absence of beliefs, to see Ameeting in Sydney, Jessica Singer an- competing right to live a life unaffected whether atheism or Catholicism (they have nounced a call for blood donors from the by other people’s ‘religious’ beliefs (see some blood beliefs I believe) is blood trans- sceptical community to donate blood as a women’s rights to reproductive health, missible, to see whether Skeptical or believer group on behalf of the Australian Skeptics same sex marriage et al, all opposed for patients can be ‘flipped’ by receiving blood and public health in general. As a former ‘religious’ reasons), even if those beliefs that is not of their pre-existing mindset, to blood donor (career total, 27 donations) can be only tangentially justified by see if UFO experiencers can ‘infect’ crystal I understand the motive and the concept scripture and Pharisee-like interpreta- power believers and vice a versa, in order to of blood drives and blood donation. I had tion. establish safe 50% conversion dose limits. to retire from the game, on the request of What I mean is this: suppose an If I can be assured that this matter has management, after a few too many ‘Gul- anti-vaxxer, after a blood transfusion, been fully researched, I think I could look liver and the Lilliputian’ moments when changes their belief overnight to a more forward to cheering on Team Skeptic in swarms of petite nurses, risking OH&S rational approach to their children’s its challenges to the psychics, the UFO issues, were required to help me get my health. Might they blame the infusion experiencers (and what’s a blood donation revived bulk off the floor. of ‘skeptical Blood’ for causing them compared to some serious extra-terrestrial When I heard of this initiative, my have to abandon their identity defining probing?) or even the Jehovah’s Witnesses first thought was that this might be an belief system? Who would they then sue (they can still give, even if not taking opportunity to look into the Japanese- for legal liability? Us Skeptics, the Blood blood is their thing) to see who can be based belief that blood groups were a Bank, or the leaders of their anti-vaxxer the most giving group in competitive predictor of personality types. movement for their promotion of de- blood drives. But I can’t help thinking that in this monstrably untrue ‘facts’ about vaccina- Wishing you well in all things, but instance, this worthy initiative of a Skep- tion and modern health? always trying to be O positive. tics blood drive, may not have been fully Also, as any single blood donation re- thought through. ceived by the Red Cross, by this organised Garry P Dalrymple For example, in NSW we live in a state drive or otherwise, is likely to fractionate Earlwood NSW and at a time when beliefs are valued and divide into multiple components, which are then pooled for more effective use, so, how is this going to affect our homeopathic brothers and sisters? I ask Bible opening how greatly concerned might they be, when confronted by the fact that they may have to receive by transfusion the highly or anyone following up on diluted, and therefore more powerful, F Michael Meyerson’s “Unoriginal blood containing Skeptical molecules or sources” (The Skeptic, Vol 38 No 2, multi-sourced blood products from the p56) on the original sources of the Red Cross? Bible, I’d like to recommend Richard As a person much concerned about Elliott Friedman’s Who Wrote the the greater public good, for are we not all Bible? to anyone interested in the Brothers in Christ?, what I fear most is, origins of the Old Testament. (tinyurl. that unless clearly marked, certified, free com/ycqzc9ka). range and Skeptic-free blood products And to be fair, Genesis doesn’t say are available, to be offered to those the world was created 6000 years ago. who hold strongly to their non-rational As for “six days” even a rabbinical beliefs, some of our Believer Brothers commentary from a 1940 book I have and Sisters might have to forego receiv- suggests that the “days” were time ing lifesaving blood transfusions at all, periods of varying duration. in order to maintain the ‘purity’ of their belief systems. Gary Goldberg I feel that this is a topic that should be Silver Spring, Maryland, USA 60 The Skeptic September 18

However, those with faith draw identifiable and earthly motive, and Religion debate upon a God to protect them and in the Sherlock Holmes TV/movies, sustain them. Particularly in times where the impossible and frequently of great hardship and trauma. Their ‘supernatural’ nature of the crime Don’t talk to me about religion! church provides their life with involved is always revealed as having I used to really enjoy the structure and sense of community. If an “elementary” explanation. religious debates contained in The faith gives people relief and support Similarly, in Ellis Peter’s Cadfael Skeptic in times past. However, Barry I think we should leave them alone series (books and TV), a medieval Williams is correct it should not be and do nothing to dilute its effect. Benedictine monk is the investigator a subject for debate (The Skeptic, Vol Some religions have very strict of supernatural/miraculous events 38, No 1, “Should the Skeptics Tackle rules as to what comments can be associated with crimes, and these too Religion”). This due to four reasons. It made about it and the punishments are found to have mundane solutions. is futile, unnecessary, may undermine for not following those rules may be The ‘miracles’ of which Cadfael comes a functional support system, and may extreme. to believe are those of humanistic be lethal. Sadly therefore, the discussion of occurrence rather than supernatural, It is futile to attempt to engage Religion should remain off limits. and his pre-existing faith remains in meaningful discussion between a As it is futile, not needed, possibly unchallenged by his discoveries of person who has an evidence-based destructive, and dangerous. ‘fake’ miracles. system of belief with a person with In the science fictionSwan of Space a faith-based system of belief. Faith Anthony Barnett series by Stapledon or Stableford has no limitations to anything, no Oakdale NSW (I think?) there is a Jesuit space matter how preposterous. Evidence- explorer/archaeologist who battles based belief has limitations, by what is with his faith on discovering that evidentially possible. Past discussions the Star of Bethlehem was in fact a in The Skeptic have shown it does not supernova which destroyed a planet matter what evidence is proffered, it is Fictional and its inhabitants, and that these dismissed by those with faith with the aliens were both advanced and highly terms “God did it” and thus rational Skeptics of note ethical but, by definition, not ‘saved,’ discussion futile. as their total extermination served Science has undermined a good only to announce the beginning of deal of the modern Christion Bible. Editor’s Note: The following letter the possibility of Salvation through During my lifetime the description follows a discussion between himself Christ. The main character goes has changed. Once it was “The divine and Mr Dalrymple over a suggestion on to have other adventures, other word of God”. Then it was “The for a Skeptical fiction award. Your explorations where the aliens reveals word inspired by God” to now “The editor rashly asked “what is skeptical truths that reflect on his faith. Bible should not be taken literally fiction” and, as an aside, mentioned I expect there are other skeptical but understand its sentiment”. that there were few true ‘skeptics’ in detectives, un-reformed by their Furthermore, past behaviour fiction; most suffering the “yes, yes, I’m investigations, to be found out there. towards children by some of the sorry, I was wrong and it’s all true” Why not re-format your statement clergy worldwide, at all levels, has conversion on the road to Damascus and my response as a call to all been proven to be illegal, morally and Woo. Read on … members in the next issue of the disgusting, and barbaric. Long time Skeptic, to nominate any other un- parishioners are leaving the church ou might be suffering from a reformed skeptical detectives. in droves, particularly in Ireland. It Y bit of confirmation bias here. is proffered in some texts I have read While I accept that the ‘reformed Garry Dalrymple that England is in the Post Christian skeptic’ (although in practice it is Earlwood NSW era. Where science and common sense usually a denier rather than a real has all but destroyed the notion of the open minded and enquiry minded existence of a God, the behaviour of Skeptic involved?) is a frequently Editor’s Post Note: By all means the church will do the rest. encountered Hollywood character, readers should feel free to contribute If left alone, religion will pass into there is some balance to be found. to this topic and suggest other fictional history as did the Roman Deities, For example, the “Scoobie Gang” skeptical role models. They might Greek Deities and Egyptian Deities, adventures, where the ghost or like to look at an article on this topic achieving the same powers as the other supernatural motivated published in The Skeptic, June 2014, Tooth Fairy, Santa Claus and the entity is always revealed to be p48 (available for free on our website - Easter Bunny. a man or woman with a clearly tinyurl.com/y7wacmpv). 61 QUOTES

What they said ... Charles Darwin

“ To kill an error is as good a service as, and sometimes even better than, the establishing of a new truth or fact.” - Letters, Vol 2

“ Great is the power of steady misrepresentation - but the history of science shows how, fortunately, this power does not endure long.” - On the Origin of Species

“ You speak about Homeopathy; which is a subject which makes me more wrath, even than does Clairvoyance: clairvoyance so transcends belief that one’s ordinary faculties are put out of question, but in Homeopathy common sense & common observation come into play, & both these must go to the Dogs, if the infinitesimal doses have any effect whatever.” - Letter to William Fox (September 4, 1850)

“ Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge: it is those who know little, and not those who know much, who so positively assert that this or that problem will never be solved by science. ” - Descent of Man

CRYPTIC CROSSWORD SOLUTION DR BOB’S QUIZ SOLUTIONS

L A N R E T E E C L L A W

A 1. The begats were originally listed downwards in two or three

E A R T R L

R columns, and were then read across during copying. R

D E I R R A C S I M P A E N

N K E A Y N F O 2. Yes, according to Mark; but when Luke & Matthew copied

their gospels from Mark’s effort, they omitted these bits. E L C N U N E E T O P F S

M R G L I H T 3. Yes – Skipping over some lines of text in copying

M A D A N I X T I T N A O (parablepsis) could be because they are between two lines

that end with the same words or syllable. (homoeoteleuton). E M L O U A G W

L I A S T S I O H N O A

N 4. The original text mentioned a woman called Junia, as of

G L S T I E N equal status to the men; this was not acceptable, therefore

a mistake in copying was assumed and a man’s name was

A M A E S U N M A L S I

A created.

E S C L A U E W

B M A L N O I T L O V E R U 5. While pregnant, his mother had seen a blind man and had a

superstitious fear that this would cause the baby to be born O D V A L A

A blind. S U M S A R E S N I K W A D

62 The Skeptic September 18

Local Skeptical Groups

QLD SA Queensland Skeptics Association Inc Skeptics SA – Laurie Eddie www.qskeptics.org.au 52B Miller St Unley, SA 5061 Email: [email protected] Tel: (08) 8272 5881 [email protected] Mobile: 0429 143 955 Thinking and Drinking - Skeptics in the Pub Join us for dinners on the last Monday of February - November, Contact: [email protected] Junction Hotel, cnr Ipswich & Annerley Rds, Annerley, from www.meetup.com/Thinking-and-Drinking-Skeptics-in-the- 6pm, guest speaker at 7.30pm Pub/ calendar/10205558 Brisbane Skeptics in the Pub or http://tinyurl.com/loqdrt http://Brisbanesitp.wordpress.com, follow links for Facebook, Meets on the third Friday of every month at The Benjamin on Twitter and email list Franklin pub, 233 Franklin St, Adelaide. Meets on the first Tuesday of each month from 6:30pm at the Plough Inn, Southbank WA WA Skeptics – Dr Geoffrey Dean Dr Paulie Gold Coast Skeptics – PO Box 466, Subiaco, WA 6904 www.gcskepticsblog.com Tel: 08 9341 4538 after 5pm Email: [email protected] www.undeceivingourselves.org Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/gcskeptics Twitter: @gcskeptics Instagram: @gcskeptics Details of all our meetings and speakers are on our website.

GC Skeptics in the Pub meet every third Monday at the Angler’s Perth Skeptics – Tanya Marwood Arms Hotel, 50 Queen Street, Southport. See website and meetup.com/Perth_Skeptics Facebook for details. Meetings at Henry on Eighth, 45 Eighth Ave, Maylands

TAS NT Leyon Parker Hobart Skeptics – Darwin Skeptics – Michelle Franklin PO Box 84, Battery Point TAS 7004 PO Box2027 Humpty Doo NT 0836 Tel: 03 6225 3988 BH, 0418 128713 [email protected] Tel: 0408 783 145; www.facebook.com/group/darwinskeptics/ Skeptics in the Pub - 2nd Monday each month, [email protected] 6.30pm, Ball & Chain restaurant, Salamanca Place Meetings to be announced - see Facebook page for details Launceston Skeptics – Jin-oh Choi 0408 271 800 [email protected] www.launcestonskeptics.com Launceston: Skeptics in the Pub third Thursday of each month 5.30pm @ The Royal Oak Hotel Launceston: Skeptical Sunday, 2nd Sunday of each month 2.00pm @ Cube Cafe

NOTE: LISTINGS WELCOME We invite listings for any Skeptical groups based on local rather than regional areas. Email us at editor@ skeptics.com.au with details of your organisation’s name, contact details and any regular functions, eg Skeptics in the Pub, with time, day of the month, location etc. Because this is a quarterly journal and most local groups meet monthly, it is unlikely we will be able to include references to specific speakers or events. Skeptic_BackCover3_SEP18.indd 64 October 13-14 THE AUSTRALIANSKEPTICS Annual galadinnerall-inclusivefood,drink,entertainment,the Skepticsawards, Science, medicine,astronomy, education,archaeology, belief Special Fridaynight social event–OccidentalHotel,Sydney –6pmonwards A Festivalofscience,reasonandcriticalthinking and some of the best local and international podcasters and someofthebestlocalinternational systems, linguistics,magic,classicSkepticaltopics, convention.skeptics.com.au and sciencecommunicators. SKEPTICON G

Chatswood Concourse fun andconviviality. 34 TH ANNUALCONVENTION

THE AUSTRALIAN SKEPTICS 34th NATIONAL CONVENTION OCTOBER 13. 14

SYDNEY.2018 G

Sydney

3/09/2018 10:23pm