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Risk Assessment Template Developed Under The Study on Invasive Alien Species – Development of Risk Assessments: Final Report (year 2) Risk assessment template developed under the "Study on Invasive Alien Species – Development of risk assessments to tackle priority species and enhance prevention" Contract No 07.0202/2017/763379/ETU/ENV.D.21 Name of organism: Perna viridis Author(s) of the assessment: Jack Sewell, The Marine Biological Association, UK Paul Stebbing, Cefas, UK Phil Davison, Cefas, UK Risk Assessment Area: The risk assessment area is the territory of the European Union (excluding the outermost regions) and the United Kingdom. Peer reviewer 1: Marika Galanidi, Dr, University, Institute of Marine Sciences and Technology, Izmir, Turkey Peer reviewer 2: Argyro Zenetos, Dr, Hellenic Centre for Marine Research, Greece This risk assessment has been peer-reviewed by two independent experts and discussed during a joint expert workshop. Details on the review and how comments were addressed are available in the final report of the study. Date of completion: 1st draft: 22/09/18 2nd draft (following comments from the Scientific Forum): 31/10/2019 Positive opinion by the Scientific Forum: 17/11/2020 1 This template is based on the Great Britain non-native species risk assessment scheme (GBNNRA). 1 Study on Invasive Alien Species – Development of Risk Assessments: Final Report (year 2) Contents RISK SUMMARIES ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 3 SECTION A – Organism Information and Screening ................................................................................................................................................................... 10 SECTION B – Detailed assessment ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 17 PROBABILITY OF INTRODUCTION and ENTRY ............................................................................................................................................................... 17 PROBABILITY OF ESTABLISHMENT ................................................................................................................................................................................. 30 PROBABILITY OF SPREAD ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 46 MAGNITUDE OF IMPACT ..................................................................................................................................................................................................... 62 Appendix: Climatic variables maps ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 78 REFERENCES .............................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 84 ANNEX I Scoring of Likelihoods of Events ................................................................................................................................................................................. 91 ANNEX II Scoring of Magnitude of Impacts ................................................................................................................................................................................ 92 ANNEX III Scoring of Confidence Levels .................................................................................................................................................................................... 93 ANNEX IV Ecosystem services classification (CICES V5.1, simplified) and examples ............................................................................................................. 94 ANNEX V EU Biogeographic Regions and MSFD Subregions ................................................................................................................................................... 98 2 Study on Invasive Alien Species – Development of Risk Assessments: Final Report (year 2) RISK SUMMARIES RESPONSE CONFIDENCE2 COMMENT Summarise Entry3 Likely High The most likely pathways of entry are via ballast water or hull fouling. Many of the unintentional introductions globally have been attributed to ballast water. For example, P. viridis in Tampa Bay Florida is believed to have been introduced as larvae via ballast water transfer and a population is now well established in the area (Rajagopal et al., 2006). There is evidence to suggest that the successful Introduction of P. viridis to Jamaican waters was via ship ballast water introduction of larvae (Buddo et al., 2003). The life history and wide environmental tolerances of the species are likely to favour introduction via this pathway. P. viridis is capable of attaching to multiple surface types using byssal threads and remaining attached in very strong currents (Rajagopal et al., 2006). It is therefore highly likely to attach to vessel hulls in its current range. Many cargo and recreational vessels move from the known range to the risk assessment area (RAA) daily and introductions with these vessels either in ballast or attached to hulls is considered likely. P. viridis is commercially valuable as a food species and has been intentionally introduced into Southwest China, New Caledonia, Fiji, Tonga, Tahiti, Western Samoa, Japan, Cook Islands and Cape Verde Islands. All but two (Cape Verde and Cook Islands) have resulted in successfully established populations (Baker et al., 2007). Legislation in the RAA should prevent legal introductions, and the authors therefore consider 2 In a scale of low / medium / high, see Annex III 3 In a scale of very unlikely / unlikely / moderately likely / likely / very likely, see Annex I 3 Study on Invasive Alien Species – Development of Risk Assessments: Final Report (year 2) introduction via this pathway to be unlikely at present. However, illegal introductions and introductions to neighbouring states with different legislation may result in established populations and potential spread into the RAA. Additionally, any changes to the relevant legislation in the future may change the score given. Summarise Establishment4 Likely High P. viridis is a highly fecund, fast growing species, tolerant of a wide range of environmental conditions and is able to capitalise on environmental change and events which may displace other species. P. viridis is capable of colonising a range of substrates with suitable habitat being widespread in the RAA, attaching and overgrowing native species. The species is also highly tolerant of varying temperature, salinity and turbidity. Mortality caused by lowest winter sea temperature is likely to be the most important factor controlling the northward spread of P. viridis in the RAA. Cold winter air temperatures (<2oC) are also likely to cause mortalities in intertidal populations but would be less likely to impact subtidal populations. Salinity levels are suitable throughout, with the exception of the Baltic and Eastern Black Sea, where Salinity is below the 15ppt lowest tolerable level. The likely minimum sea temperature thresholds are thought to be 10oC and 13oC for survival and reproduction respectively. Sea temperatures exceeding the maximum survivable temperature (35oC) do not occur in the RAA. Parts of the Eastern Mediterranean fall within the 26 – 32oC optimal sea temperature range in July and August, meaning that reproductive rates in these regions could be high even in current conditions. And establishment could be more likely. Competition and predation are 4 In a scale of very unlikely / unlikely / moderately likely / likely / very likely, see Annex I 4 Study on Invasive Alien Species – Development of Risk Assessments: Final Report (year 2) considered unlikely to impair establishment, especially in areas where conditions are optimal for growth and reproduction. It is capable of year-round reproduction, although this does not occur in all populations and females are capable of releasing 3 to 6 X 106 (3-6 million) Or rarely 19 × 106 (19 million) eggs in a single spawning event, potentially leading to rapid establishment if introduced. Evidence from interceptions in Australia where the species has been unable to establish despite numerous introductions suggests other, as-yet-unknown biological factors which may impair establishment and might be relevant to the RAA. Summarise Spread5 Rapidly Medium It is considered that due to the high fecundity and long- lasting, pelagic larval phase, natural larval dispersal and spread once introduced and established is likely to be rapid. Anthropogenic spread via fouling and ship ballast is also considered likely and the large amounts of passenger and cargo vessels moving regularly and freely within the RAA is likely to facilitate this process. Similarities with native species of mussel increase the likelihood that adult mussels will remain undetected further facilitating spread. Movements of shellfish for relaying and aquaculture may also result in the potential transfer of the species. Summarise Impact6 Major Medium Predicted
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