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GPI's Research Agenda
A RESEARCH AGENDA FOR THE GLOBAL PRIORITIES INSTITUTE Hilary Greaves, William MacAskill, Rossa O’Keeffe-O’Donovan and Philip Trammell February 2019 (minor changes July 2019) We acknowledge Pablo Stafforini, Aron Vallinder, James Aung, the Global Priorities Institute Advisory Board, and numerous colleagues at the Future of Humanity Institute, the Centre for Effective Altruism, and elsewhere for their invaluable assistance in composing this agenda. 1 Table of Contents Introduction 3 GPI’s vision and mission 3 GPI’s research agenda 4 1. The longtermism paradigm 6 1.1 Articulation and evaluation of longtermism 6 1.2 Sign of the value of the continued existence of humanity 8 1.3 Mitigating catastrophic risk 10 1.4 Other ways of leveraging the size of the future 12 1.5 Intergenerational governance 14 1.6 Economic indices for longtermists 16 1.7 Moral uncertainty for longtermists 18 1.8 Longtermist status of interventions that score highly on short-term metrics 19 2. General issues in global prioritisation 21 2.1 Decision-theoretic issues 21 2.2 Epistemological issues 23 2.3 Discounting 24 2.4 Diversification and hedging 28 2.5 Distributions of cost-effectiveness 30 2.6 Modelling altruism 32 2.7 Altruistic coordination 33 2.8 Individual vs institutional actors 35 Bibliography 38 Appendix A. Research areas for future engagement 46 A.1 Animal welfare 46 A.2 The scope of welfare maximisation 48 Appendix B. Closely related areas of existing academic research 51 B.1 Methodology of cost-benefit analysis and cost-effectiveness analysis 51 B.2 Multidimensional economic indices 51 B.3 Infinite ethics and intergenerational equity 53 B.4 Epistemology of disagreement 53 B.5 Demandingness 54 B.6 Forecasting 54 B.7 Population ethics 55 B.8 Risk aversion and ambiguity aversion 55 B.9 Moral uncertainty 57 1 B.10 Value of information 58 B.11 Harnessing and combining evidence 59 B.12 The psychology of altruistic decision-making 60 Appendix C. -
Should the Randomistas (Continue To) Rule?
Should the Randomistas (Continue to) Rule? Martin Ravallion Abstract The rising popularity of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) in development applications has come with continuing debates on the pros and cons of this approach. The paper revisits the issues. While RCTs have a place in the toolkit for impact evaluation, an unconditional preference for RCTs as the “gold standard” is questionable. The statistical case is unclear on a priori grounds; a stronger ethical defense is often called for; and there is a risk of distorting the evidence-base for informing policymaking. Going forward, pressing knowledge gaps should drive the questions asked and how they are answered, not the methodological preferences of some researchers. The gold standard is the best method for the question at hand. Keywords: Randomized controlled trials, bias, ethics, external validity, ethics, development policy JEL: B23, H43, O22 Working Paper 492 August 2018 www.cgdev.org Should the Randomistas (Continue to) Rule? Martin Ravallion Department of Economics, Georgetown University François Roubaud encouraged the author to write this paper. For comments the author is grateful to Sarah Baird, Mary Ann Bronson, Caitlin Brown, Kevin Donovan, Markus Goldstein, Miguel Hernan, Emmanuel Jimenez, Madhulika Khanna, Nishtha Kochhar, Andrew Leigh, David McKenzie, Berk Özler, Dina Pomeranz, Lant Pritchett, Milan Thomas, Vinod Thomas, Eva Vivalt, Dominique van de Walle and Andrew Zeitlin. Staff of the International Initiative for Impact Evaluation kindly provided an update to their database on published impact evaluations and helped with the author’s questions. Martin Ravallion, 2018. “Should the Randomistas (Continue to) Rule?.” CGD Working Paper 492. Washington, DC: Center for Global Development. -
Heterogeneous Treatment Effects in Impact Evaluation†
American Economic Review: Papers & Proceedings 2015, 105(5): 467–470 http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/aer.p20151015 Heterogeneous Treatment Effects in Impact Evaluation† By Eva Vivalt* The past few years have seen an exponential which programs work best where. To date, it growth in impact evaluations. These evalua- has conducted 20 meta-analyses and systematic tions are supposed to be useful to policymakers, reviews of different development programs.1 development practitioners, and researchers Data gathered through meta-analyses are the designing future studies. However, it is not yet ideal data with which to answer the question of clear to what extent we can extrapolate from how much we can extrapolate from past results, past impact evaluation results or under which as what one would want is a large database of conditions Deaton 2010; Pritchett and Sandefur impact evaluation results. Since data on these 20 2013 . Further,( it has been shown that even a topics were collected in the same way, we can similar) program, in a similar environment, can also look across different types of programs to yield different results Duflo et al. 2012; Bold see if there are any more general trends. et al. 2013 . The different( findings that have The rest of this paper proceeds as follows. been obtained) in such similar conditions point First, I briefly discuss the framework of hetero- to substantial context-dependence of impact geneous treatment effects. I then describe the evaluation results. It is critical to understand this data in more detail and provide some illustrative context-dependence in order to know what we results. -
Classical Liberalism in Italian Economic Thought, from the Time of Unification · Econ Journal Watch : Italy,Classical Liberalis
Discuss this article at Journaltalk: http://journaltalk.net/articles/5933 ECON JOURNAL WATCH 14(1) January 2017: 22–54 Classical Liberalism in Italian Economic Thought, from the Time of Unification Alberto Mingardi1 LINK TO ABSTRACT This paper offers an account of Italians who have advanced liberal ideas and sensibilities, with an emphasis on individual freedom in the marketplace, since the time of Italy’s unification. We should be mindful that Italy has always had a vein of liberal thought. But this gold mine of liberalism was seldom accessed by political actors, and since 1860 liberalism has been but one thin trace in Italy’s mostly illiberal political thought and culture. The leading representatives of Italian liberalism since 1860 are little known internationally, with the exception of Vilfredo Pareto (1848–1923). And yet their work influenced the late James M. Buchanan and the development of public choice economics.2 Scholars such as Bruno Leoni (1913–1967) joined—and influenced— liberals around the world, and they continue to have an impact on Italy today. Besides their scholarship, all the liberal authors mentioned here share a constant willingness to enter the public debate.3 Viewed retrospectively they appear a pugnacious lot, even if not highly successful in influencing public policy. The standout is Luigi Einaudi (1874–1961), at once a scholar and journalist who also became a leading political figure in the period after World War II. 1. Istituto Bruno Leoni, 10123 Turin, Italy. I am grateful to Jane Shaw Stroup for valuable editorial feed- back. I also wish to thank Enrico Colombatto and three anonymous referees for their helpful comments. -
New App for Effective Altruism Released Aidgrade’S New Tool Helps the Public Understand Latest Research Results in International Development
Contact: Eva Vivalt For Immediate Release 202-630-6763 [email protected] New App for Effective Altruism Released AidGrade’s new tool helps the public understand latest research results in international development November 7, 2013 — AidGrade, a research institute dedicated to discovering what works in international development, has just released a much-expanded version of its meta-analysis app which allows people to download and analyze results of individual studies. Meta-analysis combines findings from academic studies in a statistically sound way. It is to be contrasted with “vote counting”, which simply tallies how many studies found positive or negative effects and can be misleading. AidGrade previously released an app that allowed people to conduct their own meta-analyses online. AidGrade simultaneously built a database of impact evaluation results from academic studies, such as those produced by the Abdul Latif Jameel Poverty Action Lab, at MIT; Innovations for Poverty Action, based around Yale; and the Center for Effective Global Action, at the University of California, Berkeley, among others. More than 5,000 results from 300 papers have now been coded and are coming online. “It’s awesome to see these results,” enthused Eva Vivalt, founder of the project and post- doctoral fellow at New York University. “You hear so much in the media about ‘this study says this’ or ‘this study says that’, but each academic paper only gives a small part of the story. We need to look at the aggregate results, but in a way that makes sense. Economics isn’t like other disciplines where results can be easily replicated across contexts. -
Alberto Alesina
ALBERTO ALESINA Department of Economics Residence: Harvard University 19 Commonwealth Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138 Boston, MA 02116 617-495-8388 Email: [email protected] November 2018 PROFESSIONAL POSITIONS Nathaniel Ropes Professor of Political Economics, Harvard University July 2003 to present Tommaso Padoa-Schioppa Visiting Professor of Economics, Bocconi University July 2012 to June 2013 Taussig Research Professor of Economics, Harvard University July 2006 to June 2007 Chairman of the Department of Economics, Harvard University July 2003 to June 2006 Visiting Professor of Economics, IGIER-Bocconi July 2002-June 2003 and July 2008-June 2009 Visiting Professor of Economics, MIT July 1998 to June 1999 Professor of Economics and Government, Harvard University July 1993 to June 2003 Paul Sack Associate Professor of Political Economy, Harvard University January 1991 to June 1993 Assistant Professor of Economics and Government, Harvard University September 1988 to December 1990 Olin Fellow, National Bureau of Economic Research July 1989 to June 1990 Assistant Professor of Economics and Political Economy, Carnegie Mellon University July 1987 to June 1988 Post-Doctoral Fellow in Political Economy, Carnegie Mellon University July 1986 to June 1987 OTHER AFFILIATIONS National Bureau of Economic Research, Research Associate, September 1993 to present Faculty Research Fellow from 1987 to 1993 IGIER, Universitá Bocconi, June 2009 to present Center for Economic Policy Research, Research Fellow, October 1987 to present Center for Basic Research -
Family Ties and Political Participation
FAMILY TIES AND POLITICAL PARTICIPATION Alberto Alesina Paola Giuliano Harvard University and IGIER Bocconi UCLA, Anderson School of Management Abstract We establish an inverse relationship between family ties and political participation, such that the more individuals rely on the family as a provider of services, insurance, and transfer of resources, the lower is one’s civic engagement and political participation. We also show that strong family ties appear to be a substitute for generalized trust, rather than a complement to it. These three constructs—civic engagement, political participation, and trust—are part of what is known as social capital; therefore, in this paper, we contribute to the investigation of the origin and evolution of social capital. We establish these results using within-country evidence and looking at the behavior of immigrants from various countries in 32 different destination places (JEL: P16, Z10, Z13). 1. Introduction Well-functioning democracies need citizens’ participation in politics. The concept of politics is broader than simply voting in elections, including a host of activities like volunteering as an unpaid campaign worker, debating politics with others, and attending political meetings (e.g., campaign appearances of candidates), joining political groups, participating in boycott activities, strikes or demonstrations, writing letters to representatives and so on. What determines it? The purpose of this paper is to investigate an hypothesis put forward by Banfield (1958) in his study of a southern Italian village. In this study, he defines amoral familism as a social equilibrium in which people exclusively trust (and care about) their immediate family, expect everybody else to behave in that way and therefore (rationally) do not trust non-family members and do not expect to be trusted outside the family.1 He argues that amoral familism leads to low civic engagement, low political participation, low generalized trust, and a lack of confidence in political institutions. -
JOSHUA TASOFF August 28, 2019
JOSHUA TASOFF August 28, 2019 https://scholar.cgu.edu/joshua-tasoff/ Department of Economics, Phone: 909-621-8782 School of Politics & Economics, Fax: 909-621-8460 Claremont Graduate University, [email protected] Harper E. 204 160 E. Tenth Street Claremont, CA 91711 EMPLOYMENT Associate Professor (with tenure), Claremont Graduate University, July 2016 – Present Assistant Professor, Claremont Graduate University, July 2010 – July 2016 Visiting Professor, Carnegie Mellon University, Spring 2018 Visiting Professor, University of Southern California, Fall 2013 EDUCATION Ph.D. University of California, Berkeley, Economics, June 2010 Dissertation: “Essays in psychological and political economics” Advisors: Botond Kőszegi and Matthew Rabin B.S. Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Economics, June 2003 RESEARCH INTERESTS Behavioral Economics, Experimental Economics, Economics of Microbial Communities, Food Choice REFEREED PUBLICATIONS 10. “The Role of Time Preferences and Exponential-Growth Bias in Retirement Savings”with Gopi Shah Goda, Matthew Levy, Colleen Manchester, and Aaron Sojourner. Economic Inquiry, Vol. 57 (3), July 2019, pp1636-1658 9. “Exponential-Growth Bias in Experimental Consumption Decisions” with Matthew Levy. Economica, 20 March 2019, https://doi.org/10.1111/ecca.12306 8. “Fantasy and Dread: The Demand for Information and the Consumption Utility of the Future”, Management Science, Vol. 63 (12), December 2017, pp. 4037–4060, http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2016.2550 with Ananda Ganguly 7. “When Higher Productivity Hurts: The Interaction Between Overconfidence and Capital” Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics, Vol. 67, April 2017, pp 131-142 with Andrew Royal 6. “Exponential-Growth Bias and Overconfidence”, Journal of Economic Psychology, (Lead Article) Vol. 58, Feb (2017), pp 1-14 with Matthew Levy 5. -
Associationof Population Centers
ASSOCIATION OF POPULATION CENTERS 2021 Resource Guide Greetings – On behalf of the Association of Population Centers (APC), I am proud to share with you the 2021 edition of the APC Resource Guide, a compendium of individual profiles of the nation’s premier independent population research organizations. In these pages, you will find a comprehensive overview of the current state of population science including research subject matter, interdisciplinary and cross-institutional collaborations, and applications to real-world decision-making and policy development. Founded in 1991, the Association of Population Centers is an independent group of university-based centers and private sector research organizations whose mission is to: • Foster collaborative demographic research and data-sharing • Translate basic population research for public policy decision-makers • Provide educational and training opportunities in population studies Approximately 40 distinct entities comprise the APC, including broad-based population centers as well as several centers focused specifically on aging populations.All the centers are by design interdisciplinary, drawing faculty and research staff from diverse fields such as demography, economics, geography, medicine, public health, anthropology, biology, public policy, statistics, and sociology. Scholars at APC centers conduct research on the individual, societal, and environmental implications of population change and vice versa. Their diverse interests include topics such as aging and retirement, minority health, adolescent health, childcare, immigration and migration, family formation and dissolution, fertility, morbidity and mortality, post-disaster resilience, housing and homelessness, rural and urban populations, and population forecasting. This research, in turn, serves to inform planning, policy formulation, and decision-making at the local, regional, national, and even international levels. -
Paola Giuliano
PAOLA GIULIANO CURRICULUM VITAE http://www.anderson.ucla.edu/faculty/paola.giuliano/ UCLA Anderson School of Management Phone: 310-206-6890 Global Economics and Management Area Fax: 310-825-4011 110 Westwood Plaza, C517 Entrepreneurs Hall Email: [email protected] Los Angeles, CA 90095-1481 EMPLOYMENT Assistant Professor of Economics, UCLA, Anderson Graduate School of Management, July 2008-today Visiting Scholar, Russell Sage Foundation, New York (September 2012-January 2013) Visiting Assistant Professor of Economics, Harvard University, Dept. of Economics, Sept. 2006-May 2008, February 2013-June 2013 Economist, International Monetary Fund, October 2003-June 2008 OTHER AFFILIATIONS NBER, faculty research fellow, April 2009-present CEPR, research affiliate, January 2010-present IZA, research fellow, February 2006 – present EDUCATION Ph.D. Department of Economics, University of California Berkeley (December 2003) M.A. Economics, Bocconi University, Milan-Italy, Summa cum laude (March 1997) FIELDS OF INTEREST Primary Economics of Culture, Social Economics, Political Economy Secondary Macroeconomics, International Economics PUBLICATIONS IN PEER REVIEWED JOURNALS: “Growing Up in a Recession” (with Antonio Spilimbergo), conditionally accepted, Review of Economic Studies “Choice and Self: How Identity Shapes Choices and Decision Making” (with D. Bartel, G. Newman, S. Puntoni, L. Rips and O. Urminsky), forthcoming, Marketing Letters “Genetic Distance, Transportation Costs, and Trade” (with Antonio Spilimbergo and Giovanni Tonon), forthcoming, Journal of Economic Geography “Democracy and Reforms” (with Prachi Mishra and Antonio Spilimbergo), American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, October 2013, 5(4): 179-204 “Like Mother Like Son? Experimental Evidence on the Transmission of Values from Parents to Children” (with Marco Cipriani and Olivier Jeanne), Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, June 2013, vol. -
Weighing the Evidence: Which Studies Count?
Weighing the Evidence: Which Studies Count? Eva Vivalt∗ Aidan Coville† Sampada KC‡ April 30, 2021 Abstract We present results from two experiments run at World Bank and Inter- American Development Bank workshops on how policy-makers, practi- tioners and researchers weigh evidence and seek information from impact evaluations. We find that policy-makers care more about attributes of studies associated with external validity than internal validity, while for researchers the reverse is true. These preferences can yield large differ- ences in the estimated effects of pursued policies: policy-makers indicated a willingness to accept a program that had a 6.3 percentage point smaller effect on enrollment rates if it were recommended by a local expert, larger than the effects of most programs. ∗Department of Economics, University of Toronto, [email protected] †Development Impact Evaluation group, World Bank, [email protected] ‡Institutions and Political Inequality, Berlin Social Science Center (WZB), [email protected]. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the au- thors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent. 1 1 Introduction The basic motivation behind evidence-based policy-making is simple: rigorous ev- idence on what works best could help policy-makers make more informed decisions that improve policy effectiveness. This could take the form of, for example, scale up or adaptation of programs based on evidence on the project of interest or simi- lar projects elsewhere. -
Deaton Randomization Revisited V7 2020
Randomization in the tropics revisited: a theme and eleven variations Angus Deaton School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University Schaeffer Center for Health Policy and Economics, University of Southern California National Bureau of Economic Research December 2019, Revised July 2020 Forthcoming in Florent Bédécarrats, Isabelle Guérin and François Roubaud, Randomized controlled trials in the field of development: a critical perspective, Oxford University Press. For (generous, helpful, and amazingly rapid) comments on an earlier version, I am most grateful to Nancy Cartwright, Anne Case, Shoumitro Chatterjee, Nicolas Côté, Jean Drèze, William Easterly, Reetika Khera, Lant Pritchett, C. Rammanohar Reddy, François Roubaud, Dean Spears and Bastian Steuwer. I acknowledge generous support from the National Institute on Aging through the NBER, Grant number P01AG05842. Development economists have been using randomized controlled trials (RCTs) for the best part of two decades1, and economists working on welfare policies in the US have been doing so for much longer. The years of experience have made the discussions richer and more nuanced, and both proponents and critics have learned from one another, at least to an extent. As is often the case, researchers seem reluctant to learn from earlier mistakes by others, and the lessons from the first wave of experiments, many of which were laid out by Jim Heckman and his collaborators2 a quarter of a century ago, have frequently been ignored in the second wave. In this essay, I do not attempt to reconstruct the full range of questions that I have written about elsewhere3, nor to summarize the long running debate in economics.