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Index Take Five Scrip Reco Date Reco Price CMP Target w Aban Loyd 03-Mar-05 330 958 1,760 w Sharekhan Special >> Q1FY2007 earnings preview w 15-Nov-05 1,873 2,725 3,500 w Sharekhan Special >> Cement earnings preview w BHEL 11-Nov-05 1,203 1,892 2,650 w Esab India 21-May-04 60 326 575 w 30-Dec-03 1,378 3,104 3,504

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Sharekhan Special

Q1FY2007 earnings preview

Key points w For FY2007 the earnings of the Sensex companies are w The domestic demand driven story is likely to continue expected to grow at 21.0% and excluding Oil and Natural with the growth in the Sensex earnings led by the Gas Corporation the growth is likely to be 22.6%. The automobile, cement, capital goods and fast moving earnings growth for the banking sector for Q1FY2007 is consumer goods (FMCG) companies. We expect the likely to be much lower than the full year growth as a pharmaceuticals sector to report a strong growth on the major portion of the mark-to-market losses on the bond back of the latest acquisitions done by the companies portfolios will be booked in Q1FY2007. (Dr Reddy's acquired Betapharm) and new product Automobiles—to report strong growth approvals. w We expect the two-wheeler as well as four-wheeler w We also expect the information technology sector segments to report a strong growth in the earnings on companies to report a strong earnings growth on the the back of robust sales volumes. back of a robust volume growth and the depreciation of the rupee vis-à-vis the dollar. w The two-wheeler volumes have continued their secular growth with Bajaj Auto leading the pack with a 28.1% w We expect the earnings of the Sensex companies to year-on-year (y-o-y) growth in the volumes. grow by a strong 19.1% year on year (yoy) led by a strong growth in the above-mentioned sectors. w The four-wheeler majors reported a strong growth in passenger vehicles as well as commercial vehicles due Sensex earnings growth (%) to the lower base of last year. Sector Contribution to % y-o-y % y-o-y growth Sensex earnings change in in FY2007E w The volume growth in the quarter should lead to margin for Q1FY2007E Q1FY2007E earnings expansion, thereby mitigating the impact of the rising Auto 6.7 36.8 25.6 costs to some extent. Most of the vehicle companies Bank 12.4 6.6 16.4 are planning to raise the prices from Q2FY2007 onwards Capital goods 1.8 45.0 38.8 to offset the impact of the cost increases. Cement 2.9 96.0 37.0 Automobile majors' volume growth FMCG 5.5 22.8 24.2 IT 17.0 39.6 34.9 Q1FY2007 Q1FY2006 % y-o-y growth Metals 7.3 10.0 19.3 Two-wheelers Oil 34.0 13.1 14.3 Bajaj Auto 647,094 505,000 28.1 Pharma 2.0 49.2 68.7 Hero Honda 788,357 658,026 19.8 Power 8.9 1.2 9.1 TVS Motors 376,274 307,425 22.4 Diversified 1.4 25.2 36.2 Four-wheelers Total 100.0 19.1 21.0 126,154 87,499 44.2 Total excl ONGC 21.4 22.6 Maruti Udyog 144,948 121,866 18.9 Note: We have not included Company as Reliance 17,067 13,320 28.1 Communication Ventures Ltd (RCVL) has replaced it in the Sensex. We have also not included RCVL in our numbers, as M&M 61,894 52,190 18.6 the comparable figures for the last year are not available.

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(Rs crore) Net sales Profit after tax that of the public sector banks are likely to decline or Q1 Q1 % yoy Q1 Q1 % yoy remain flat. FY07E FY06 chg FY07E FY06 chg Bajaj Auto 2,135.4 1,634.2 30.7 314.5 209.0 50.5 Capital goods and engineering Maruti Udyog 3,116.4 2,612.9 19.3 315.7 226.5 39.4 w We expect a strong growth in the revenues of the capital Tata Motors 5,725.1 3,878.1 47.6 327.8 272.7 20.2 goods and engineering companies on the back of a strong order book carried forward at the end of FY2006. Banking—rising interest rates to hurt w The loan book of scheduled commercial banks has grown w Driven by the operating leverage, the earnings of the by 32.8% during the period up to the week ended June capital goods and engineering companies are likely to 23, 2006. However, the growth in the net interest income see continued growth momentum. is likely to be much lower as the deposit costs have risen, but the full impact of the increase in the lending Cement rates is yet to come in. w We expect the cement sector as a whole to report an impressive performance in the April-June quarter of Loan growth of scheduled commercial banks 2006, on the back of a decent 7-8% volume growth and 1,500 34.0 a 19-20% realisation growth. 1,480 33.5 1,460 w Amongst the cement companies in our coverage, JK 1,440 33.0 1,420 Cement is expected to top the chart of earnings growth 1,400 32.5 with a 273% growth in its net earnings followed by Shree 1,380 1,360 32.0 Cement with a net earnings growth of 182%. 1,340 31.5 1,320 w We expect UltaTech and ACC's operating margins to 1,300 31.0 expand, driven by the cost savings and higher leverage to the firm cement prices. 6-Jan-06 9-Jun-06 3-Mar-06 3-Feb-06 14-Apr-06 28-Apr-06 20-Jan-06 27-Jan-06 23-Jun-06 17-Feb-06 24-Feb-06 17-Mar-06 31-Mar-06 12-May-06 26-May-06 w We expect Madras Cements to register a healthy volume Rs '000 cr (LHS) % yoy growth (RHS) growth of 23.9% yoy in Q1FY2007 on the back of the Source: RBI strong demand in south India. This coupled with the firm cement prices and the lower sales tax rate would w The mark-to-market losses of the banks are also result in a substantial 77% growth in its earnings. expected to go up as the government bond yields have shot up substantially over the last quarter. w Shree Cement is likely to report a healthy volume growth driven by the commissioning of its new 1.2 million tonne 10-year G-Sec yield (%) cement plant. This coupled with the firm cement prices 8.50 in the northern region is likely to lead to a staggering

8.10 182% growth in its earnings.

7.70 w We maintain our positive view on the sector with ACC, UltraTech and Madras Cement as our top picks. 7.30

6.90 (Rs crore) Net sales Profit after tax Q1 Q1 % yoy Q1 Q1 % yoy 6.50 FY07E FY06 chg FY07E FY06 chg ACC 1,276.0 1,107.6 15.2 213.2 130.8 63.0 Grasim 1,776.9 1,553.2 14.4 250.3 205.5 21.8 1-Apr-05 6-Jan-06 2-Dec-05 15-Jul-05 6-May-05 28-Oct-05 21-Apr-06 10-Jun-05 30-Jun-06 17-Mar-06 10-Feb-06 19-Aug-05 23-Sep-05 26-May-06 UltraTech 978.0 815.0 20.0 90.0 59.2 52.0 Source: Bloomberg JAL 908.5 817.0 11.2 104.2 83.8 24.3 Madras Cement 288.0 218.8 31.6 32.0 18.3 77.0 w We expect the private sector banks to outperform their Shree Cement 303.0 143.1 112.0 73.0 26.0 182.0 peers in the public sector. We expect the earnings of JK Cement 254.0 200.3 26.8 19.0 5.1 273.3 UTI Bank and HDFC Bank to report a strong growth while

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Fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) % y-o-y growth in non-ferrous metal prices w Backed by a pick-up in the rural demand, the FMCG 200 sector has seen the volume growth getting better every 160 quarter. The revenue growth for the current quarter is 120 likely to be in the higher double-digit range. 80 w We expect the market leader in the segment, Hindustan 40 Lever Ltd's (HLL) earnings to grow by 24.4% yoy backed by the strong volume growth and price increases in its 0 key product segments. Also the faster growth in the

higher margin personal care segment should help expand 03-Apr-06 10-Apr-06 17-Apr-06 24-Apr-06 05-Jun-06 12-Jun-06 19-Jun-06 26-Jun-06 01-May-06 08-May-06 15-May-06 22-May-06 29-May-06 margins. Copper Aluminum Zinc w We expect ITC's profits to grow by 18.7% yoy driven by Source: LME the growth in cigarettes, hotels and paper businesses. w We expect the non-ferrous metal majors like Hindalco, w We expect to report a 19.4% National Alumunium, and Sterlite y-o-y growth in its earnings with the continuing strong Industries (India) to report a strong growth in earnings growth in the personal care segment. backed by the firm metal prices.

Information technology Ferrous w The revenue growth of the information technology (IT) w has reported a strong growth in its production companies for Q1FY2007 would be in the range of 6- as well as sales volumes for Q1FY2007. The production 10% quarter on quarter driven by a 4-8% growth in the volumes have grown by 17% yoy and the sales volumes volumes and 2-2.2% depreciation in the rupee against have grown by 28% yoy. the US dollar. w However, with the prices having fallen 15-20% in the w The favourable forex movement would boost the hot rolled and cold rolled segments, Tata Steel is likely operating profit margins and cushion against the adverse to see a drop in its earnings of 11-14%. impact of the cost pressures. However, the mark-to- Tata Steel volume numbers market losses against the forward cover would result in Million tonne Q1FY2007 Q1FY2006 % yoy chg a much lower other income. Thereby, leading to a lower Crude steel production 1.21 1.1 9.4 growth in the earnings. Saleable steel production 1.11 0.9 17.0 w Infosys with its front-ended growth would be the best Sales volumes 1.12 0.87 28.0 performer among the front-line IT services companies. Source: Company Satyam would also positively surprise by better than Oil and gas guided earnings growth of 1.2% (as against the guidance of a sequential decline of 1.7%). On the other hand, w ONGC is likely to report a 9-11% growth in the profits, is likely to disappoint with a flattish performance as the benefits of higher realisation on crude and higher both in terms of the revenue and earnings growth. production are likely to be offset by the higher subsidy burden under the new subsidy sharing formula. (Rs crore) Net sales Profit after tax Brent crude price 30-DMA (% yoy change) Q1 % qoq % yoy Q1 % qoq % yoy FY07E chg chg FY07E chg chg 76 45 Infosys Tech 2,873.0 9.5 38.7 702.4 4.4 32.0 74 40 Satyam Comp 1,395.0 6.2 31.8 288.0 1.2 51.4 72 35 HCL Tech 1,215.3 8.3 31.0 222.5 15.4 37.4 70 30 Wipro (cons) 3,060.0 0.2 33.8 596.5 -0.2 39.8 68 25 66 20 TCS 4,020.0 7.7 38.0 854.0 5.5 32.0 64 15 Metals Non-ferrous 03-Apr-06 11-Apr-06 20-Apr-06 28-Apr-06 02-Jun-06 12-Jun-06 20-Jun-06 28-Jun-06 09-May-06 17-May-06 25-May-06 w Despite correcting from their highs, the aluminium, $/bbl (LHS) % yoy change (30-DMA) (RHS) copper and zinc prices are still sharply higher over the last year. Source: Bloomberg Note: 30-DMA: 30-day moving average

Investor’s Eye 4 July 07, 2006 Home Next investor’s eye sharekhan special w The downstream players like HPCL, BPCL and Indian Oil w Ranbaxy is likely to continue its dismal performance Corporation are likely to report profits compared to due to the pricing pressure faced in the US markets. the losses that they reported in Q1FY2006, on account Telecom of the stronger refining margins and the issue of oil w Bharti Telecom is expected to report a strong 45% y-o-y bonds. growth in its earnings backed by the robust addition in the net subscriber base and the strong growth in the w RIL is expected to show a strong growth in its earnings non-mobile revenues. due to the following reasons. w The growth for Reliance Communication Ventures Ltd is - The refining business is likely to remain strong as the likely to be in the range of 6-7% on a q-o-q basis with gross refining margins (GRMs) for Q1FY2007 are likely the company expected to report a profit of Rs450-470 to remain strong and the company has expanded crore as compared to a loss of Rs391 crore in the same capacities through de-bottlenecking. quarter last year. - The petrochemicals business is also likely to show a Annexure - I strong traction led by the price increases. The prices Stocks to watch out for in Sensex of polypropylene and polyethylene have gone up by Stocks where the earnings growth is expected to be high 12% yoy and 17% yoy respectively over the last year. However, in the polyester segment the prices have Company Q1FY2007E Q1FY2006 % yoy chg declined by 1-8%. ACC 262.1 130.7 100.5 Gujarat 278.6 145.2 91.9 - The oil exploration and production business is likely to report 585.1 324.9 80.1 a good growth on the back of increased volumes and higher 191.9 111.4 72.3 price realisation on both crude oil as well as gas. Satyam Computer Services 294.9 193.1 52.7 BHEL 195.0 127.9 52.5 Singapore GRMs ($/bbl) Bajaj Auto 315.1 208.0 51.5 16.0 100.0 Bharti Televentures 735.3 504.2 45.8 14.0 80.0 Wipro 598.0 422.6 41.5 12.0 Maruti Udyog 316.7 226.5 39.8 10.0 60.0 Stocks where lower earnings growth/decline is likely 8.0 40.0 6.0 20.0 Company Q1FY2007E Q1FY2006 % yoy chg 4.0 Reliance Energy 176.3 156.6 12.6 2.0 0.0 ICICI Bank 591.0 530.0 11.5 0.0 -20.0 Oil & Natural Gas Corp 3,663.1 3,318.6 10.4 NTPC 1,482.3 1,482.4 - TISCO 788.4 924.1 -14.7 7-Apr-06 2-Jun-06 9-Jun-06 5-May-06 14-Apr-06 21-Apr-06 28-Apr-06 16-Jun-06 23-Jun-06 12-May-06 19-May-06 26-May-06 $/bbl % yoy change Annexure II - Non Sensex companies where high growth is expected Source: Bloomberg Company Q1FY2007E Q1FY2006 % yoy chg Pharmaceuticals I Flex 56.1 5.9 850.8 w Cipla is expected to report a very high double-digit Hindustan Zinc 1,100.0 145.0 659.4 growth in its revenues as well as profits on the back of Shree cement 75.0 26.0 188.0 I Gate 3.8 1.3 203.8 supplies of Finasteride (generic version of “Proscar”, a UltraTech 142.0 60.0 136.5 Merck product) to Teva Pharma of Israel (see our note Welspun India 24.5 10.8 126.9 'Cipla receives (Pr)oscar" dated June 21, 2006). Nalco 617.5 281.0 120.1 w Dr Reddy's Laboratories is expected to report a strong ZEE Telefilms 65.0 31.0 111.5 growth backed by the consolidation of the numbers of Tata Tea 64.1 32.6 96.6 Betapharm. Thermax 24.4 13.3 83.1

The author doesn’t hold any investment in any of the companies mentioned in the article.

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Sharekhan Special

Cement earnings preview

We expect the cement sector as a whole to report an Cement sector to deliver impressive earnings growth impressive performance for Q1FY2007 due to a 7-8% growth We expect the cement sector to report an impressive in the volume and a 19-20% rise in the realisation. We expect performance for the April-June quarter on account of the cement companies in the northern and southern regions, continued rise in cement consumption and prices. We expect eg Shree Cement (north) and Madras Cement (south), to most of the cement companies to register a very healthy deliver a superlative performance. Amongst the cement growth of 15-20% yoy in the top line on the back of a decent companies in our coverage, JK Cement is expected to top 7-8% volume growth and a 19-20% realisation growth. the chart of earnings growth with a 273% growth in its net earnings. The contenders for the second and third slots Companies in northern and southern regions to would be Shree Cement, whose net earnings are expected deliver superlative performance to grow by 182%, and Madras Cement, whose net earnings Regional analysis shows that the northern region has are expected to grow by 77%, respectively. We expect the reported the highest increase in the cement prices and the operating profit margin (OPM) of UltraTech Cement southern region has topped the chart in terms of cement Company and ACC to expand because of cost savings and dispatches. Cement prices in the northern region have risen higher leverage to firm cement prices. by around 22-25% yoy. Similarly dispatches in the southern region have seen a very healthy growth of 16% yoy. Also Following the sharp correction in the broader indices recently with the assembly elections over in the southern region, and the news of the government's intervention to control the cement producers who were lagging behind in raising the cement prices, the stocks of the cement companies prices effected two price hikes during the quarter. Hence have witnessed a sharp correction in the last few trading we expect the cement companies in the northern and sessions. The fears of an earnings downgrade as well as southern regions, eg Shree Cement (north) and Madras the overall lower valuations of the broader indices are now Cement (south), to deliver a superlative performance for acting as an overhang on these stocks. However we believe the first quarter. the strong April-June quarter numbers and the new valuation benchmarks set by Holcim's recent acquisitions in India shall JK Cement and Shree Cement to top earnings growth act as positive triggers for the cement stocks. We maintain chart our positive view on the sector with UltraTech Cement, Amongst the cement companies in our coverage, JK Cement ACC and Madras Cement as our top picks. We also like is expected to top the chart of earnings growth with a 273% Orient Paper and JK Cement on account of their compelling growth in its net earnings followed by Shree Cement with a valuations, which are much lower than the sector average. net earnings growth of 182%. Shree Cement is likely to Quarterly estimates (April—June 2006) report a healthy volume growth owing to the commissioning of its new 1.2-million-tonne cement plant. This and the Rs crore Sales % yoy Net profit % yoy strong cement prices in the northern region are likely to chg chg lead to a staggering growth of 182% in its earnings. ACC 1,276.0 15.2 213.2 63.0 Grasim 1,776.9 14.4 250.3 21.8 Decent margin expansion for the cement majors UltraTech 978.0 20.0 90.0 52.0 We expect the OPM of UltraTech Cement and ACC to expand, JAL 908.5 11.2 104.2 24.3 driven by cost savings and higher leverage to the firm Madras Cement 288.0 33.6 32.0 77.0 cement prices. The cement division is expected to be the Shree Cement 303.0 112.0 73.0 182.0 top performer for ; however lower VSF JK Cement 254.0 26.8 19.0 273.3 and sponge iron prices might affect the company's OPM.

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Madras Cement—prime beneficiary of rising cement However we believe the strong April-June quarter numbers consumption down south and the new valuation benchmarks set by Holcim's recent As expected, the southern region has continued with its acquisitions in India shall act as positive triggers for the impressive performance and consequently the dispatches cement stocks. We maintain our positive view on the sector in the region have grown at a healthy rate of 16% in the with UltraTech Cement, ACC and Madras Cement as our top first two months of the current fiscal. The region has also picks. We also like Orient Paper and JK Cement on account witnessed a decent increase of 10-15% in cement prices. of their compelling valuations, which are much lower than We expect Madras Cement to be the primary beneficiary of the sector average. the buoyancy in the southern region. It should register a Quarterly estimates (April—June 2006) healthy volume growth of 23.9% year on year in Q1FY2007 on the back of a strong demand in south India. The higher Rs crore Sales % yoy Net profit % yoy chg chg volume growth, strong cement prices and lower sales tax ACC 1,276.0 15.2 213.2 63.0 rate (14.5% as compared to 23.5% earlier) would result in a Grasim 1,776.9 14.4 250.3 21.8 substantial growth of 77% in its earnings. UltraTech 978.0 20.0 90.0 52.0 Following the sharp correction in the broader indices recently JAL 908.5 11.2 104.2 24.3 and the news of the government's intervention to control Madras Cement 288.0 33.6 32.0 77.0 the cement prices, the stocks of the cement companies Shree Cement 303.0 112.0 73.0 182.0 have witnessed a sharp correction in the last few trading JK Cement 254.0 26.8 19.0 273.3 sessions. The fears of an earnings downgrade as well as the overall lower valuations of the broader indices are now acting as an overhang on these stocks.

Cement valuation matrix Companies CMP PER EV/EBIDTA EV/Ton ($ US/Ton) (Rs) FY07E FY08E FY07E FY08E FY07E FY08E ACC 793 19.6 15.1 11.8 9.1 163.9 154.4 Grasim 1900 15.8 11.4 7.2 5.2 UTCL 717 27.3 22.1 16.1 12.0 129.2 120.2 JP Associates 392 17.2 12.0 7.8 6.2 Shree Cements 800 11.3 9.0 8.3 6.4 155.9 123.0 Madras Cement 2382 21.7 15.7 10.8 8.2 116.0 109.0 JK Cement 142 15.4 7.6 7.6 4.1 77.1 57.9

The author doesn’t hold any investment in any of the companies mentioned in the article.

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Evergreen Emerging Star HDFC Bank 3i Infotech Infosys Technologies Aarvee Denims and Exports Aban Loyd Chiles Offshore Alok Industries Tata Consultancy Services Alphageo India Apple Green KSB Pumps Aditya Birla Nuvo Marksans Pharma Associated Cement Companies Navneet Publications (India) Bajaj Auto New Delhi Television Orchid Chemicals & Pharmaceuticals Balrampur Chini Mills ORG Informatics Bharat Bijlee Solectron Centum Electronics Bharat Heavy Electricals Television Eighteen India Corporation Bank Thermax Crompton Greaves Tube Investments of India Godrej Consumer Products TVS Motor Company Elder Pharmaceuticals UTI Bank Grasim Industries Welspun Gujarat Stahl Rohren Hindustan Lever Welspun India Hyderabad Industries ICICI Bank Ugly Duckling Indian Hotel Company Ashok Leyland ITC Deepak Fertilisers & Petrochemicals Corporation Mahindra & Mahindra Genus Overseas Electronics Industries HCL Technologies Maruti Udyog ICI India MRO-TEK Jaiprakash Associates Lupin JM Financial Nicholas Piramal India KEI Industries Omax Auto Nelco Ranbaxy Laboratories NIIT Technologies Satyam Computer Services Sintex Industries Ratnamani Metals and Tubes SKF India Sanghvi Movers State Saregama India Sundaram Clayton Selan Exploration Technology Tata Motors Subros Tata Tea Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Unichem Laboratories Surya Pharmaceuticals Wipro UltraTech Cement Cannonball Universal Cables Cipla Wockhardt Gateway Distriparks International Combustion (India) Vulture’s Pick JK Cements Esab India Madras Cement Orient Paper and Industries Shree Cement WS Industries India Transport Corporation of India Home

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