DOCSLIB.ORG

A Tale of Two Disruptions Prof

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
A Tale of Two Disruptions Prof Fight or Flight – a Tale of Two Disruptions Prof. Dr. Dr. h.c. Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, Gitta Köllner, Dr. Maria Martin To be, or not to be, that is the question: Whether ‘tis nobler in the mind to suffer The slings and arrows of outrageous fortune, Or to take arms against a sea of troubles, And by opposing, end them? To die: to sleep William Shakespeare: The tragedy of Hamlet, Prince of Denmark (Act 3, Scene 1) While Hamlet famously vacillates between suffering the rough sides of life and taking the courage to end it, humanity as a whole is currently facing a similar existential choice. However, what Hamlet does not actually have in mind is the third option: to take arms against a sea of troubles and fight against his outrageous fortune. There are sayings and quotes for every situation. In the case of humanity, it is time to recognise that we are architects of our own fates. Ruling out intentional self-destruction, humanity – like Hamlet – faces a crossroads: To flee or to fight. There is imminent danger associated with anthropogenic climate change. And since we have wasted decades in analysing the situation without taking noteworthy action, we are intellectually more than well prepared to take a decision. We know the risks of both choices: On the one hand, fighting climate change will involve some serious scratches. Fleeing this fight, on the other hand, will allow more and more devastating climate impacts to catch up with us, until we will reach a state indistinguishable from intentional self-destruction. A tale of two disruptions describes humanity’s current situation. Either we take up the proverbial arms and transform our society in an effort that is comparable in its immensity to times of war, or we will be transformed by the results of our inability or unwillingness to combat climate change. What we see in terms of extreme events is just a foretaste of what lies ahead if we continue along the still unbroken path of carbon-based lifestyles at the expense of the world’s poor and future generations. The unprecedented dimension and frequency of extreme weather events during the last two years give a glimpse of the world to come. A Sea of Troubles In the summer of 2018, heatwaves in North America, Western Europe, the Caspian Sea region and Siberia, which affected important bread-basket regions for food production, coincided with heavy rainfall in South- East Europe and Japan (Kornhuber et al. 2019). Events like these trickle into the public’s consciousness. It is but consequences for our everyday lives that make an abstract concept like climate truly manifest. One striking example of change in the highly complex atmosphere-ocean system translating directly into people’s daily routine is the meandering jet stream in the high Northern latitudes. At an altitude of eleven kilometres, this band of winds tends to form ever-bigger waves if the temperature gradient between the polar region and the temperate latitudes decreases (Figure 1). These so-called Rossby waves can overlap so the jet stops propagating for several weeks due to subtle resonance phenomena (Petoukhov et al. 2013). The longer we observe the associated wave pattern, the clearer it becomes that this phenomenon has occurred more often over recent years. In other words, extreme weather patterns last longer – so a couple of nice, warm days become a heatwave, and some refreshing rainy ones turn into a deluge (Kornhuber et al. 2019). As the global concentration of greenhouse gas emissions is still on the rise, as air and ocean temperatures are steadily increasing, the impacts of planetary warming become more and more apparent. Heatwaves and droughts call for better planning in the agricultural sector, as well as in health systems. Weather extremes can exacerbate food insecurity, social unrest and conflict in affected regions. Tropical cyclones impact a growing number of people directly and harm economies where they make landfall (Winston and Zemyla 2019). The - 1 - devastating cyclone Idai, for example, was one of the most deleterious ever in the Southern hemisphere in terms of deaths and the number of people stricken (Warren 2019). Other prominent examples are the raging bushfires in California and Australia, unprecedented in frequency and intensity, following droughts and extremely hot summers (Winston and Zemyla 2019). But there are more examples of looming risks, particularly those associated with tipping elements in the Earth System, which may be triggered to flip irreversibly into a different state once a certain temperature threshold is crossed. Some of these elements could already be tipped within the temperature range of 1.5-2°C, i.e. within the Paris Agreement corridor (see Figure 2). Even more critical thresholds or tipping points are approached if we proceed along our current path of emissions, heading towards a largely unknown future (Schellnhuber, Rahmstorf, and Winkelmann 2016) (for more detail please see the contribution of Schellnhuber & Martin 2014 in “Sustainable Humanity, Sustainable Nature: Our Responsibility”, Pontifical Academy of Sciences, Extra Series 41, Vatican City, 2015). Temperatures alone cover only one dimension of tipping dynamics. For instance, the Amazon rainforest is of global climate relevance and a very sensitive ecosystem. Its life-supporting hydrological cycle is prone to disruption with increasing temperatures and forest-cover loss, which could lead to a shift to savanna vegetation and a decrease in precipitation followed by prolonged dry-seasons. Synergies between warming temperatures, deforestation and clearance fires could lower that threshold of tipping to mere 20-25% forest cover loss (Lovejoy and Nobre 2018). In such complex systems, multi-layered interactions can bring us faster to exceed the thresholds and, in some cases, to a point of no return. Acting in a precautionary manner becomes imperative, especially when uncertainties are involved. Figure 2: Tipping elements in the context of global mean temperature change (West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS); thermohaline circulation (THC); El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO); East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS). Shown is the global-mean surface temperature development from the Last Glacial Maximum through the Holocene, based on palaeoclimatic proxy data as the grey and light blue lines, with the blue shading showing one standard deviation), instrumental measurements since 1750 ad (HadCRUT data, black line) and different global warming scenarios for the future. Threshold ranges for crossing various tipping points, where major subsystems of the climate system are destabilized, are indicated by gradient from yellow to red bars for each tipping element. Coral reefs are likely to reach tipping point within the range of the Paris Agreement (Source: Schellnhuber et al., 2016, Nature Climate Change). Standing at a crossroads, one needs to take a decision. But how? In the end, it comes down to weighing the trade-offs between anticipated benefits and damages in the broadest sense. However, our evolutionary heritage has not endowed us with a particular talent to factor in long-term risks – this is challenge number one. Challenge number two is further complicating the decision process: Climate-related risks are usually not distributed in the typical bell-shaped Gaussian (normal) distribution, but are characterized by “fat tails” (Weitzman 2014). This means that statistical “outliers”, extremes that are very different from the norm, are more likely than usually expected. We, however, intuitively perceive them as less likely to happen, due to our everyday experience with normal distributions (like the outcome of a lottery game). This partial blindness of humanity is particularly dangerous. Projections of global warming are prominent illustrations of a fat-tailed distribution. Accelerated and runaway warming is not the most likely event, but it would have impacts beyond imagination. Since we define risk as the product of likelihood multiplied by impact, impactful outliers at the fringe of the probability distribution pose an existential risk to civilization. Although it appears counterintuitive, we have to factor them into the decision process on which path to take and act accordingly. On a global scale, warming around 4°C would not allow us to preserve our societal structures of today. Ecosystems would cascade into decay and no longer support human societies adequately, and violent conflicts are likely to arise more frequently (Spratt, Dunlop, and Barrie 2019). Going down the business-as-usual path, we will reach tipping points in the Earth System, even some irreversible ones. Leading the way to self-reinforcing biogeophysical feedbacks, tipping cascades across elements of the cryosphere, the biosphere and global circulation patterns could very well change the face of the planet – transforming it to a Hothouse Earth without the possibility for return (Steffen et al. 2018). Tipping cascades strung around the planet threaten the conditions we live in. For example, the decrease of Arctic sea ice further warms the region due to albedo feedbacks and thus causes accelerated melting of the Greenland ice sheet. This inserts freshwater into the North Atlantic Ocean, potentially slowing down the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (Lenton et al. 2019). Observations suggest that a slowdown of 15% since the 1950s has already happened (Caesar et al. 2018). The global heat transport through the ocean by the Gulf Stream might affect the West African monsoon negatively and generate severe droughts in the Sahel region. Another consequence could be the drying of the Amazon rainforest, which could trigger a shift to savanna - 2 - vegetation. As a consequence, heat building up in the Southern Ocean might reinforce the pace of Antarctic ice loss (Lenton et al. 2019). The urgency of the situation into which humanity has navigated itself calls for rapid action and behavioural change. Unfortunately, it is not that simple, since humans are creatures of habit. For example, the perception of the link between extreme weather events and human interference with the climate system is highly dependent on the individual attribution of those extremes.
Load more

Recommended publications
  • The Trajectory of the Anthropocene: the Great Acceleration
    ANR0010.1177/2053019614564785The Anthropocene ReviewSteffen et al. 564785research-article2015 Review The Anthropocene Review 1 –18 The trajectory of the © The Author(s) 2015 Reprints and permissions: Anthropocene: The Great sagepub.co.uk/journalsPermissions.nav DOI: 10.1177/2053019614564785 Acceleration anr.sagepub.com Will Steffen,1,2 Wendy Broadgate,3 Lisa Deutsch,1 Owen Gaffney3 and Cornelia Ludwig1 Abstract The ‘Great Acceleration’ graphs, originally published in 2004 to show socio-economic and Earth System trends from 1750 to 2000, have now been updated to 2010. In the graphs of socio-economic trends, where the data permit, the activity of the wealthy (OECD) countries, those countries with emerging economies, and the rest of the world have now been differentiated. The dominant feature of the socio-economic trends is that the economic activity of the human enterprise continues to grow at a rapid rate. However, the differentiated graphs clearly show that strong equity issues are masked by considering global aggregates only. Most of the population growth since 1950 has been in the non-OECD world but the world’s economy (GDP), and hence consumption, is still strongly dominated by the OECD world. The Earth System indicators, in general, continued their long-term, post-industrial rise, although a few, such as atmospheric methane concentration and stratospheric ozone loss, showed a slowing or apparent stabilisation over the past decade. The post-1950 acceleration in the Earth System indicators remains clear. Only beyond the mid-20th century is there clear evidence for fundamental shifts in the state and functioning of the Earth System that are beyond the range of variability of the Holocene and driven by human activities.
    [Show full text]
  • Earth: a Single, Complex and Rapidly Changing System
    INTERVIEW with keynote speaker Dr. Will Steffen, The Australian National University and the Stockholm Resilience Centre, AUSTRALIA Keynote Plenary Session 1 Thursday, 21 September, 10:30 – 12:00 Rolf Böhme Saal (Konzerthaus Freiburg) The Earth System, the Anthropocene and the World’s Forests Earth: a single, complex and rapidly changing system By Bob Burt IUFRO Science Writer “It’s important to put the changes that are occurring to the world’s forests in a much larger, long-term perspective,” said Dr. Will Steffen. “Land systems in general, but forests in particular, play an important role in the functioning of the Earth System.” Dr. Steffen, a leading proponent of the Anthropocene – a proposed epoch dating from the beginnings of significant human impact on earth’s geology and ecosystems – will be a keynote speaker at the IUFRO 125th Anniversary Congress in Freiburg. Dr. Steffen, along with Nobel laureate Paul Crutzen and other scientists, contends that the Holocene, the 10,000-year geological epoch since the last ice age, in which the earth’s environment has been unusually stable, is being, or has already been, supplanted by an epoch in which human intervention has become a – and perhaps “the” – major driver of environmental change. Since the mid-20th century, carbon dioxide emissions, sea level rise, the mass extinction of species around the world and the transformation of land by deforestation and development have effectively ended the Holocene and ushered in the Anthropocene, they say. “The Earth System is now in a rapidly-changing, highly transient phase in which the end point is not known, and cannot be predicted.
    [Show full text]
  • The Water Planetary Boundary: Interrogation and Revision
    1 The water planetary boundary: interrogation and revision 2 This is a non-peer reviewed preprint submitted to EarthArXiv which is in review at “One Earth” 3 Tom Gleeson 1,2, Lan Wang Erlandsson 3, 4, 8, Samuel C. Zipper 1, Miina Porkka 3, 8, Fernando Jaramillo 2, 5, 4 Dieter Gerten 6,7, Ingo Fetzer 3,8, Sarah E. Cornell 3, Luigi Piemontese 3, Line Gordon 3, Johan 5 Rockström 2, 6, Taikan Oki 9, Murugesu Sivapalan 10, Yoshihide Wada 11, Kate A Brauman 12, Martina 6 Flörke 13, Marc F.P. Bierkens 14,15, Bernhard Lehner 16, Patrick Keys17, Matti Kummu 18, Thorsten 7 Wagener 19, Simon Dadson 20, Tara J. Troy1, Will Steffen 3, 21, Malin Falkenmark 3, James S. Famiglietti 22 8 1 Department of Civil Engineering, University of Victoria, Canada 9 2 School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of Victoria 10 3 Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden 11 4 Research Institute for Humanity and Nature, Kyoto, Japan 12 5 Department of Physical Geography, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden 13 6 Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, 14 Germany 15 7 Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Geography Dept., Berlin, Germany 16 8 Bolin Centre of Climate Research, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden 17 9 Integrated Research System for Sustainability Science, University of Tokyo, Japan 18 10 Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 19 Urbana IL 61801, USA. Department of Geography and Geographical Science, University
    [Show full text]
  • 2992 JU 1 the Anthropocene, Climate Change, and the End
    Word count: 2,992 J.U. 1 The Anthropocene, Climate Change, and the End of Modernity As the concentration of greenhouse gases has increased in the atmosphere, the world has warmed, biodiversity has decreased, and delicate natural processes have been disrupted. Scientists are now deliberating whether a variety of profound growth related problems have pushed the world into a new geological epoch – the Anthropocene. The shift from the Holocene, a unique climatically stable era during which complex civilizations developed, signals increasingly harsh climatic conditions that may threaten societal stability. Humanity has long impacted the environment. Since the rise of industrial capitalism, the rates of carbon emissions and natural resource usage have increased. The late twentieth century ushered in an era of neoliberalism and economic globalization, during which growth at any cost policies were established and emission rates began to increase exponentially. Today, as the Anthropocene era progresses, humanity continues to reach new levels of control over the environment, though nature increasingly threatens the existence of its manipulator. Over the past two centuries, humanity has possibly thrown the world into the “sixth great extinction,” doubled the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, disrupted the phosphorus cycle upon which food supplies depend, and stressed or exhausted the supplies of countless other natural resources.1 These problems disproportionately affect the world’s poorest, hurting minorities, women, and native populations the most. As the consumption rates of the affluent Global North negatively impact those in disparate parts of the world who have contributed the least to global warming, more reflexive and empathetic connections must form to address past wrongs and create a shared future.
    [Show full text]
  • Anthropocene
    ANTHROPOCENE Perrin Selcer – University of Michigan Suggested Citation: Selcer, Perrin, “Anthropocene,” Encyclopedia of the History of Science (March 2021) doi: 10.34758/be6m-gs41 From the perspective of the history of science, the origin of the Anthropocene appears to be established with unusual precision. In 2000, Nobel laureate geochemist Paul Crutzen proposed that the planet had entered the Anthropocene, a new geologic epoch in which humans had become the primary driver of global environmental change. This definition should be easy to grasp for a generation that came of age during a period when anthropogenic global warming dominated environmental politics. The Anthropocene extends the primacy of anthropogenic change from the climate system to nearly every other planetary process: the cycling of life-sustaining nutrients; the adaptation, distribution, and extinction of species; the chemistry of the oceans; the erosion of mountains; the flow of freshwater; and so on. The human footprint covers the whole Earth. Like a giant balancing on the globe, each step accelerates the rate of change, pushing the planet out of the stable conditions of the Holocene Epoch that characterized the 11,700 years since the last glacial period and into a turbulent unknown with “no analog” in the planet’s 4.5 billion-year history. It is an open question how much longer humanity can keep up. For its advocates, the Anthropocene signifies more than a catastrophic regime shift in planetary history. It also represents a paradigm shift in how we know global change from environmental science to Earth System science. Explaining the rise the Anthropocene, therefore, requires grappling with claims of both ontological and epistemological rupture; that is, we must explore the entangled histories of the Earth and its observers.
    [Show full text]
  • Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene PERSPECTIVE
    PERSPECTIVE Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene PERSPECTIVE Will Steffena,b,1, Johan Rockströma, Katherine Richardsonc, Timothy M. Lentond,CarlFolkea,e, Diana Livermanf, Colin P. Summerhayesg, Anthony D. Barnoskyh, Sarah E. Cornella, Michel Crucifixi,j, Jonathan F. Dongesa,k, Ingo Fetzera, Steven J. Ladea,b,MartenSchefferl, Ricarda Winkelmannk,m, and Hans Joachim Schellnhubera,k,m,1 Edited by William C. Clark, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, and approved July 6, 2018 (received for review June 19, 2018) We explore the risk that self-reinforcing feedbacks could push the Earth System toward a planetary threshold that, if crossed, could prevent stabilization of the climate at intermediate temperature rises and cause continued warming on a “Hothouse Earth” pathway even as human emissions are reduced. Crossing the threshold would lead to a much higher global average temperature than any interglacial in the past 1.2 million years and to sea levels significantly higher than at any time in the Holocene. We examine the evidence that such a threshold might exist and where it might be. If the threshold is crossed, the resulting trajectory would likely cause serious disruptions to ecosystems, society, and economies. Col- lective human action is required to steer the Earth System away from a potential threshold and stabilize it in a habitable interglacial-like state. Such action entails stewardship of the entire Earth System—biosphere, climate, and societies—and could include decarbonization of the global economy, enhancement of
    [Show full text]
  • Sustainable Use of the Environment, Planetary Boundaries and Market Power
    sustainability Article Sustainable Use of the Environment, Planetary Boundaries and Market Power Edward B. Barbier * and Joanne C. Burgess Department of Economics, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523, USA; [email protected] * Correspondence: [email protected]; Tel.: +1-970-491-6324 Abstract: Many of the environment and natural resources that constitute key “safe operating spaces”, as designated by planetary boundaries, are being exploited by a handful of large firms with con- siderable market share. In this paper, we discuss how the environment and natural resources that occur within a safe operating space can be treated as an exploitable finite stock. We use an optimal depletion model to show how the extraction of these exhaustible assets can be managed optimally, and allow for adjustment in price paths due to technological innovation and environmental externali- ties. Given the growing market concentration and monopoly power in the key economic sectors that exploit the environment and resources that constitute many safe operating spaces, we then explore how monopoly conditions can alter the extraction and price path of the environmental assets over time compared to that under competitive market conditions. We show that the monopoly may be compatible with more sustainable use, by extending the life of the exploitable, depletable stock, at the expense of firms capturing excessive resource rents from exploitation. This tradeoff means that any policies implemented to tax the excessive monopoly rents need to be designed without compromising the sustainable use of the environment. The tax revenue raised can be channeled into protecting or regenerating natural assets that are essential for global environmental sustainability.
    [Show full text]
  • Planetary Boundaries: Exploring the Safe Operating Space for Humanity
    Copyright © 2009 by the author(s). Published here under license by the Resilience Alliance. Rockström, J., W. Steffen, K. Noone, Å. Persson, F. S. Chapin, III, E. Lambin, T. M. Lenton, M. Scheffer, C. Folke, H. Schellnhuber, B. Nykvist, C. A. De Wit, T. Hughes, S. van der Leeuw, H. Rodhe, S. Sörlin, P. K. Snyder, R. Costanza, U. Svedin, M. Falkenmark, L. Karlberg, R. W. Corell, V. J. Fabry, J. Hansen, B. Walker, D. Liverman, K. Richardson, P. Crutzen, and J. Foley. 2009. Planetary boundaries:exploring the safe operating space for humanity. Ecology and Society 14(2): 32. [online] URL: http://www. ecologyandsociety.org/vol14/iss2/art32/ Research Planetary Boundaries: Exploring the Safe Operating Space for Humanity Johan Rockström 1,2, Will Steffen 1,3, Kevin Noone 1,4, Åsa Persson 1,2, F. Stuart III Chapin 5, Eric Lambin 6, Timothy M. Lenton 7, Marten Scheffer 8, Carl Folke 1,9, Hans Joachim Schellnhuber 10,11, Björn Nykvist 1,2, Cynthia A. de Wit 4, Terry Hughes 12, Sander van der Leeuw 13, Henning Rodhe 14, Sverker Sörlin 1,15, Peter K. Snyder 16, Robert Costanza 1,17, Uno Svedin 1, Malin Falkenmark 1,18, Louise Karlberg 1,2, Robert W. Corell 19, Victoria J. Fabry 20, James Hansen 21, Brian Walker 1,22, Diana Liverman 23,24, Katherine Richardson 25, Paul Crutzen 26, and Jonathan Foley 27 ABSTRACT. Anthropogenic pressures on the Earth System have reached a scale where abrupt global environmental change can no longer be excluded. We propose a new approach to global sustainability in which we define planetary boundaries within which we expect that humanity can operate safely.
    [Show full text]
  • Planetary Boundaries – Some Questions and Answers
    Planetary Boundaries – Some Questions and Answers Responses written by [email protected] The answers given do not necessarily reflect the personal or institutional positions of all the authors. New article: Planetary boundaries: Guiding human development on a changing planet. Will Steffen, Katherine Richardson, Johan Rockström, Sarah E. Cornell, Ingo Fetzer, Elena M. Bennett, R. Biggs, Stephen R. Carpenter, Wim de Vries, Cynthia A. de Wit, Carl Folke, Dieter Gerten, Jens Heinke, Georgina M. Mace, Linn M. Persson, Veerabhadran Ramanathan, B. Reyers, Sverker Sörlin. Science, DOI: 10.1126/science.1259855. 1. Will the PB framework restrict development? Developing countries want to be able to develop without constraints. Will they not argue that wealthy nations have not been required to develop within constraints like PB, so why should developing nations face such constraints? The planetary boundaries framework aims to specify precautionary biophysical boundaries within which humanity can thrive, but it does not indicate specific societal pathways for remaining and thriving within that safe space. There are likely to be many possible pathways that can deliver inclusive and sustainable development in that space. These pathways will be contested: different cultures, with their own needs, visions and values will view the costs, risks and benefits differently. And power is not evenly distributed among the world’s social groups. The political challenges of future development and social justice will be great, because Earth’s biophysical constraints are real, and not subject to political negotiation. The clear message from the new article is that continued inaction and policy implementation gaps on the planetary boundaries that are being transgressed now will reduce the options for fair and just pathways in future.
    [Show full text]
  • Planetary Boundaries: Exploring the Safe Operating Space for Humanity
    Copyright © 2009 by the author(s). Published here under license by the Resilience Alliance. Rockström, J., W. Steffen, K. Noone, Å. Persson, F. S. Chapin, III, E. Lambin, T. M. Lenton, M. Scheffer, C. Folke, H. Schellnhuber, B. Nykvist, C. A. De Wit, T. Hughes, S. van der Leeuw, H. Rodhe, S. Sörlin, P. K. Snyder, R. Costanza, U. Svedin, M. Falkenmark, L. Karlberg, R. W. Corell, V. J. Fabry, J. Hansen, B. Walker, D. Liverman, K. Richardson, P. Crutzen, and J. Foley. 2009. Planetary boundaries:exploring the safe operating space for humanity. Ecology and Society 14(2): 32. [online] URL: http://www. ecologyandsociety.org/vol14/iss2/art32/ Research Planetary Boundaries: Exploring the Safe Operating Space for Humanity Johan Rockström 1,2, Will Steffen 1,3, Kevin Noone 1,4, Åsa Persson 1,2, F. Stuart III Chapin 5, Eric Lambin 6, Timothy M. Lenton 7, Marten Scheffer 8, Carl Folke 1,9, Hans Joachim Schellnhuber 10,11, Björn Nykvist 1,2, Cynthia A. de Wit 4, Terry Hughes 12, Sander van der Leeuw 13, Henning Rodhe 14, Sverker Sörlin 1,15, Peter K. Snyder 16, Robert Costanza 1,17, Uno Svedin 1, Malin Falkenmark 1,18, Louise Karlberg 1,2, Robert W. Corell 19, Victoria J. Fabry 20, James Hansen 21, Brian Walker 1,22, Diana Liverman 23,24, Katherine Richardson 25, Paul Crutzen 26, and Jonathan Foley 27 ABSTRACT. Anthropogenic pressures on the Earth System have reached a scale where abrupt global environmental change can no longer be excluded. We propose a new approach to global sustainability in which we define planetary boundaries within which we expect that humanity can operate safely.
    [Show full text]
  • A Climate Chronology Sharon S
    Landscape of Change by Jill Pelto A Climate Chronology Sharon S. Tisher, J.D. School of Economics and Honors College University of Maine http://umaine.edu/soe/faculty-and-staff/tisher Copyright © 2021 All Rights Reserved Sharon S. Tisher Foreword to A Climate Chronology Dr. Sean Birkel, Research Assistant Professor & Maine State Climatologist Climate Change Institute School of Earth and Climate Sciences University of Maine March 12, 2021 The Industrial Revolution brought unprecedented innovation, manufacturing efficiency, and human progress, ultimately shaping the energy-intensive technological world that we live in today. But for all its merits, this transformation of human economies also set the stage for looming multi-generational environmental challenges associated with pollution, energy production from fossil fuels, and the development of nuclear weapons – all on a previously unimaginable global scale. More than a century of painstaking scientific research has shown that Earth’s atmosphere and oceans are warming as a result of human activity, primarily through the combustion of fossil fuels (e.g., oil, coal, and natural gas) with the attendant atmospheric emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), and other * greenhouse gases. Emissions of co-pollutants, such as nitrogen oxides (NOx), toxic metals, and volatile organic compounds, also degrade air quality and cause adverse human health impacts. Warming from greenhouse-gas emissions is amplified through feedbacks associated with water vapor, snow and sea-ice
    [Show full text]
  • The Future We Must Plan For
    The Future We Must Plan For Forum Round Table Date: Friday 4 December 2020 Time: 1.30 - 4.30pm Venue: Virtual Supported by the Royal Society of Victoria The global environment is changing rapidly. This can be seen very clearly in the natural environment in the form of resource depletion, environmental degradation, pollution and species loss as well as climate change and global warming. These changes are all measurable and present profound challenges for the way societies live and the values, principles and structures that support them including the economic system and functioningProgram of institutions and government. Governments need to plan for the future but the starting point must be a realistic understanding of the scale and dimensions of these changes, what is driving them and their likely impacts. This will be the subject of this forum. This subject has profound implications for societies throughout the world. It will be of critical interest to poli- cy and decision makers in business and all levels of government as well as the broader community. PROGRAM 1.30pm Welcome, Opening Address Session The changing world around us—the evidence and implications One Professor David Karoly Climate change—a brief history, recent developments and projections for the future Professor Will Steffen Global change, trends, tipping points and likely outcomes Professor Robyn Eckersley Where to from here—the politics of change Summary of key issues, panel discussion, resolutions, questions from the Session audience Two Adam Bandt (Mp) to Join speakers in panel discussion Closing address Close 5.00 David Karoly is Leader of the Earth Systems and Climate Change Hub in the Australian Government’s National Environmental Science Program, based in CSIRO.
    [Show full text]