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Antifragility in Strategic Management; Strengthening Companies Through Embracing Uncertainty

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Antifragility in Strategic Management; Strengthening Companies Through Embracing Uncertainty Antifragility in strategic management; Strengthening companies through embracing uncertainty “An analysis of the application of antifragility in the field of strategic management, focusing on redundancy, optionality, and skin in the game.” Master thesis submitted to Delft University of Technology in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE in Management of Technology Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management by Thomas Fredericus Disseldorp Student number: s4970594 To be defended in public on August 25 2020 Graduation committee Chairperson : Prof. dr. Cees van beers, ETI First Supervisor : Dr. ing. Victor Scholten, DCE Second Supervisor : Prof. dr. Cees van beers, ETI Page intentionally left blank 2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The environment that high-tech companies have to navigate is changing rapidly. To deal with these changes, managers have limited tools, of which many are based on predictive properties. However, as Black Swans and X- events illustrate, the future is inherently unpredictable. As the field of strategic management is primarily involved in dealing with the future, a new approach that does not rely on prediction could be of incredible value. Therefore, the concept of antifragility is introduced in this field as a new approach for management to decide on strategies. Antifragility is a concept that moves away from prediction. It does so by focusing on ways to deal with variation instead of merely aiming to prevent or predict it. It looks at what changes will do to an organisation and how to adapt a system so it can absorb or even benefit from this variation. Antifragility is a relatively new concept in the field of strategic management and therefore limited research has been conducted. The aim of this research is to analyse the concept through three aspects of antifragility: optionality, redundancy, and skin in the game. Strategies and practices that are related to these aspects are identified and analysed in order to get higher level insights in the mechanisms that increase antifragility through these concepts. The end results are several propositions capturing these mechanisms, which give insight in how companies and organisations can use antifragility to improve their strategic management. The research is exploratory as the field is relatively unknown and the existing research is not consistent of quality due to the lack of a theoretical framework. The main research question investigated in this thesis is the following: What underlying mechanisms drive antifragility in strategic management through the concepts of redundancy, optionality, and skin in the game? In order to be able to create propositions with validity in such a new field, the research consisted of three separate parts that delivered separate conclusions. This way, insights and higher-level mechanisms could be triangulated from these parts, creating valid and strong propositions. First a desk research was conducted through literature on antifragility from the fields of strategic management, urban planning, systems dynamics & engineering, and ICT. The literature was analysed to create conclusions on the strategies and practices for implementation of antifragility in strategic management. Furthermore, a comprehensive overview and consolidation in vocabulary on the subject of antifragility in strategic management was made. Second two case studies were executed, respectively about Haier and Zappos. Both companies are known for their innovative management structures and are well documented in scientific literature. This literature was analysed to highlight antifragile strategies and practices employed by the companies and general conclusions were created by comparing overlap between them. Finally, nine semi-structured interviews were conducted with interviewees that employ antifragility or related concepts in their professional career. The results were analysed using a general inductive approach. The resulting categories were discussed. The conclusions of these three aspects combined created higher-level insights into the mechanisms behind optionality, redundancy, and skin in the game and how they contributed to an increase of antifragility for organisations. These insights were captured in several propositions. The resulting proposition highlighted that a greater focus on continuous experimentation, building redundancy and optionality through diversifying and a structure of decentralized decision making can increase the antifragility of a company. Furthermore, that implementing skin in the game from employees can be achieved through either conscious choice or an increase in employee engagement. The implications of the propositions cover many areas. For the scientific community an overview, consolidation of terminology, and an expansion towards other fields has been made for antifragility in strategic management. This opens up both many new research possibilities and a common ground to start from. For the TU Delft this new view on strategic management can add a new and contrasting view to the curriculum, highlighting biases and assumptions underlying many strategies and theories. For society, a focus on growing organisations in an antifragile manner can promote more adaptability and thus stable economic prosperity. For management, the implications can be far reaching. This research shows that although the quantitative evidence of the benefits that antifragility can bring are few, the concept holds promise of more control and success in strategic decision making. Using antifragility, they are better able to withstand variations, can benefit from it and it enables them to take an inwards look, focusing their efforts at what companies can influence, instead of trying to influence the un-influenceable. Adjusting to the propositions as stated requires a new view on almost every aspect of the modern company. However, for the concept to become more accepted and applied, future research is necessary, such as quantitative proof of effectivity of antifragility and a better understanding of the limitations of antifragility. 3 TABLE OF CONTENTS Executive Summary ................................................................................................................................................ 3 1. Introduction .................................................................................................................................................... 5 1.1 Problem definition ........................................................................................................................................ 6 1.2 Research Goal .............................................................................................................................................. 7 1.3 Methodology ................................................................................................................................................ 8 1.4 Limitations ................................................................................................................................................. 11 2. Literature ...................................................................................................................................................... 12 2.1 Fundamentals of antifragility .............................................................................................................. 13 2.2 Desk research ...................................................................................................................................... 20 2.3 Conclusion .......................................................................................................................................... 24 3. Case studies.................................................................................................................................................. 26 3.1 Haier ........................................................................................................................................................... 27 3.2 Zappos ........................................................................................................................................................ 31 3.3 Conclusions ................................................................................................................................................ 34 4. Interviews .................................................................................................................................................... 37 4.1 Interviewee pool .................................................................................................................................. 38 4.2 Coding method .................................................................................................................................... 39 4.3 Category Definitions ........................................................................................................................... 40 4.4 Results ................................................................................................................................................. 42 4.5 Conclusion .......................................................................................................................................... 63 5. Discussion .................................................................................................................................................... 64 5.1 Answering the main research question ...............................................................................................
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