Crop, Livestock and Fisheries High Rainfall Areas Assessment 2012

CROP, LIVESTOCK AND FISHERIES HIGH RAINFALL AREAS ASSESSMENT 2012

Prepared by the Agriculture Livestock Sector Working Group of the Kenya Food Security Steering Group(KFSSG) : Joint work between Food Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), WFP, FEWS NET and Ministries of Agriculture, Livestock Development and Fisheries Development Kenya.

December 2012, Nairobi Kenya TABLE OF CONTENTS

ABBREVIATIONS ...... 6 1.0 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND KEY RECOMMENDATIONS ...... 7 1.1 Summary of key findings ...... 7 1.2 Price trends for key commodities ...... 7 1.3 ...... 8 1.4 Priority interventions ...... 9 2.0 ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY AND SCOPE ...... 10 2.1 Background and objectives ...... 10 2.2 Methodology and approach ...... 10 3.0 FOOD SITUATION BY CLUSTER ...... 12 3.1 Western Cluster Food Situation ...... 12 3.1.1 Background Information ...... 12 3.1.2 Main Factors Affecting Food Situation...... 12 3.1.3 Food production trends ...... 12 3.1.4 Overall food situation...... 13 3.1.5 Shocks and hazards ...... 13 3.1.6 Impact of Shocks and Hazards ...... 14 3.1.7 Challenges Facing Food Security ...... 18 3.1.8 Food Security Prognosis ...... 19 3.2 Nyanza Cluster ...... 20 3.2.1 Background information ...... 20 3.2.2 Main factors Affecting Food Situation ...... 20 3.2.3 Food Production Trends ...... 21 3.2.4 Overall Food Situation ...... 21 3.2.5 Shocks and hazards ...... 22 3.2.6 Impact of shocks and hazards ...... 23 3.2.7 Challenges ...... 28 3.2.8 Food Security Prognosis ...... 29 3.3 NORTH RIFT CLUSTER ...... 30 3.3.1 Background Information ...... 30 3.3.2 Factors affecting food situation ...... 30 3.3.3 Food production trends ...... 30 3.3.4 Overall food situation...... 30 3.3.5 Shocks and Hazards ...... 31 3.3.6 Impact of the season on food production ...... 32 3.3.7 Food Security Prognosis ...... 34 3.3.8 Challenges ...... 35 3.4 SOUTH RIFT CLUSTER ...... 36 3.4.1 Background information ...... 36 3.4.2 Factors affecting food situation ...... 36 3.4.3 Food Production Trend ...... 36 3.4.4 Overall Food Situation ...... 37 3.4.5 Shocks and hazards ...... 37 3.4.6 Impacts of the season on food production ...... 38 3.4.7 Food Security Prognosis ...... 41 3.5 Central Cluster ...... 43 3.5.1 Background Information ...... 43 3.5.2 Factors affecting food situation ...... 43

2 3.5.3 Food production trends ...... 44 3.5.4 Overall food situation...... 44 3.5.5 Shocks and Hazards ...... 44 3.5.6 IMPACTS OF SHOCKS AND HAZARDS ...... 45 3.5.7 Challenges ...... 49 4.0 Recommendations ...... 51

3 LIST OF FIGURES

FIGURE PAGE

1. Maize prices in selected markets ………………………………..……..………8 2. Western Cluster Map……………………………………………………..…….12 3. Rainfall estimate for Central Bungoma………………………………….…….13 4. Livestock Population in Western Province ……………………………….…..15 5. Pasture and Fodder proportion in the Province………………………………..16 6. Trend in Pasture production in Western…………………………………...….16 7. Capture fisheries production in Western……………………………………....17 8. Nyanza Cluster Map………………………………………………….…..…….20 9. Rainfall Estimate Distribution in Kisii, Nyanza…………………………….…22 10. Price trend for commercial feeds in Nyanza………………………….…..…..25 11. fish production from aquaculture …………………………………….………26 12. Trend in fish production from Lake Victoria…………………………...…….27 13. Maize price trend in Kisumu…………………………………….………..…..27 14. North Rift Cluster Map…………………………………………..……………30 15. Rainfall Estimate for Central TransNzoia………………………….……...….31 16. Pasture land in North Rift…………………………………………….…..…..33 17. Commodity prices 2011-2012………………………………………….…..…34 18. Milk prices trend 2011-2012………………………………………….…..…..34 19. South rift cluster map………………………………………………….….….36 20. Fodder and pasture development in South rift……………………………….39 21. Trend in commercial feeds prices …………………………………..….…….40 22. Fish production in Lake Naivasha 2012……………………………….……..40 23. Maize and Beans price trend in South Rift…………………………….…….41 24. Central cluster Map…………………………………………………………...43 25. Rainfall performance in central province ………………………………...….44 26. Major crops in central Kenya…………………………………………………45 27. Livestock population in Central province……………………………..…...... 46 28. Trend in fodder and pasture development……………………………..……..47 29. Fish production in central province………………………………….…..…...47 30. Number of fish ponds since 2008 in central province………………..…..….48 31. Comparative commodity prices 2011-2012……………………………..……48 32. Milk price comparison 2010-2012………………………………………..…..49

LIST OF TABLES TABLE PAGE 1. Maize Balance sheet………………………………………………………...……9 2. Long rains crop production in Western Province 2011-12…………………....14 3. Food stocks as at November 2012 in Western Province………………….…...15 4. Food requirement the next 6 months…………………………………………..15 5. Status of aquaculture in Western………………………………………………17 6. Crops affected by floods 2012 Long Rains………………………….………….23 7. Areas affected by MLND 2012 in Kisii……………………………….………..23 8. Maize and Beans production 2011-12 in Nyanza…………………….…..……24 9. Maize and Beans stocks in Nyanza…………………………………….………24 10. Maize requirements in Nyanza………………………………………………..25 11. Aquaculture inputs, sources and prices……………………………….………36 12. Comparative fish market prices…………………………………………...…..28 13. Crop production in North Rift…………………………………………..….…32 14. Status of aquaculture production in Uasin Gishu…….…………………...…34 15. Major shocks during 2012 Long Rains………………………………..…...…37 16. Geographical spread of MLND in South Rift……………………………..….38 17. Crop production in South Rift……………………………………….…....….39 18. Maize, Beans and Potato production 2011-12………………………….....….45 19. Maize and Beans stocks ………………………………………………….……45 20. Maize requirement in Central Province……………………………..……..…46 21. Recommendation by Sub sector………………………………………..……..50

5 ABBREVIATIONS CAN Calcium Ammonium Nitrate

DAP Di Ammonium Phosphate

EAC East African Community

FAO Food and Agricultural Organization

FEWSNET Famine Early Warning System Network

FFEPP Fish Farming Enterprise Production Programme

GIZ German Technical Cooperation

HH Household

KCC Kenya Cooperative Creameries

KFFSG Kenya Food Security Steering Group

KNBS Kenya National Bureau of Statistics

LGB Larger Grain Borer

LTA Long Term Average

MLND Maize Lethal Necrotic Disease

MT Metric Tonne

NAAIAP National Accelerated Agricultural Inputs Access Programme

NCPB National Cereals and Produce Board

PDA Provincial Director of Agriculture

PDLP Provincial Director of Livestock Production

PVC Poly Vinyl Chloride

SMS Subject Matter Specialist

UHT Ultra Heat Treated

USGS United States Geographical Service

WFP World Food Programme

6 1.0 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND KEY RECOMMENDATIONS

1.1 Summary of key findings The high and medium rainfall areas of Kenya are the high producers of both grain and livestock products. The area carries approximately 80 percent of the total Kenyan population. The assessment on the 2012 impact of rains on food production indicates that in general the 5 cluster areas are stable and projected to remain food up to the next harvest. Production of key commodities was reported to be good except for the areas which were affected by the Maize Lethal Necrotic Disease in South rift and parts of Nyanza.. Dairy production was better than 2011 when milk shortage was experienced countrywide. This has been reflected in the fairly stable milk prices currently being enjoyed. In general the high and medium potential areas have the following positive aspects; (i) The maize production harvested from the 2012 long rains is approximately 34 million bags from the Long Rains harvest and it is estimated that the short rains will produce 6.0 million bags. (ii) Milk production has improved in rift valley and central provinces and the producer price is relatively higher compared to the previous year. (iii) Fish production from the ESP programme has improved supply of fish by 40% from the additional ponds established from the proceeds of the programme. (iv) Other food sources in the region has been substantially expanded mainly, sweet potatoes, Irish potatoes, millet, sorghum, cassava, bananas and traditional vegetables.

However the key issues affecting food production in the region include: (i) High cost of land preparation due to increased cost of fuel. (ii) High cost of inputs and late supply of seed varieties at the time of planting which resulted into late planting. (iii) The Maize Lethal Necrotic Disease in parts of South Rift, Nyanza and North Rift, though to a less extent in the long rains but was significant serious for the second season crop. (iv) Unavailability of clean planting materials for Irish potatoes in the north rift and in central. (v) Fertilizer use is below the recommended rates among most of the small scale farmers leading to reduced productivity per unit area. (vi) High cost of food commodities despite the harvesting that is ongoing. (vii) Competition for land for food production in Western and Nyanza regions due to expansion of cane production. (viii) High cost of feeds in livestock production. (ix) Supply of fingerlings for fish production in aquaculture continues to be a major setback for fish farmers.

1.2 Price trends for key commodities The price of maize was observed to generally be higher than 2011 same time in most of the areas except in the North rift which had a slight drop of approximately 10 percent. For instance, Trans Nzoia maize price per 90 kg bag was 2850 compared to 3100 in 2011. It terms of the trend during the year, high prices were experienced in the months of April-June and began to drop in August. Figure 1 shows the average price in the selected markets. On milk prices, most of the clusters reported a drop in price per litre from 40-45 Kshs in 2011 to between 25-30 in 2012.

7 On fish, the cost of fish in all the clusters is still high due to increased demand of fish products and a change in eating habits by the Kenyan consumer. This is due to the enhanced campaign of ‘Kuza, kula, Uza samaki’ (grow, eat and sell more fish). This resulted into high demand for fish against diminishing volumes from the capture in the lakes. However, this is being supplemented from the fish farming arising from harvest from the ESP programme in the constituencies.

Figure 1: Maize prices in selected markets (2009-2011

Eldoret Nairobi Nakuru Kisumu Mombasa 6,000

5,000

4,000

kg bag) kg -

3,000

2,000

1,000 Price (Ksh per 90 per(Ksh Price

09 10 11

10 11 09

09 11 11 09 10 10

10 09 11

09 10

- - -

- -

Jul Jul Jul

Jan Jan Jan

Sep Sep Sep

Nov Nov

Mar Mar Mar

May May May Source: FEWSNET, Kenya October 2012

1.3 National Maize Balance Sheet Table 1 is a summary of the National Maize Balance Sheet as at October with projections up to the year ending in June 2013. The imports through cross border trade are estimated to be 10,650,000 bags during this period. The estimated harvest cumulatively from the grain basket stands at 34,260,400 bags and an estimated 6.0million bags is expected from the short rains thus bringing the total availability to approximately 40 million bags. In factoring in cross border imports and estimated 15 percent post harvest loss, the total maize available in this period will be 46,844,265 bags and with a consumption of 44,640,000 the estimated surplus as at June 2013 will be 96,273 bags. This will however be depended on a number of factors, key among them the performance of the short rains in the south eastern marginal areas which are the main short rain depended zones. In addition, the maize lethal necrosis disease has been seen in more areas which were not affected in during the long rains but signs have already been shown for the already established crop.

8 Table 1: Kenya Maize Balance sheet 2012-2013 (in 90 Kg bags)

Stocks as at 1st June 2012 (stock balances including National Reserve and 3,450,300 from warehouse receipt agencies) in 90kg bags a) Total East Africa Imports* (cross border trade) between June 2012 to June 10,650,000 2013 b) Private sector/ Relief agencies estimated imports outside EAC between 750,200 June 2012 to June 2013 Estimated harvest between June 2012 to June 2013 a) Long rains harvest up to end of 2012 season 34,260,400 b) Short rains projections 6,000,000 Total available stocks by 30th June 2013 55,110,900 Post -harvest losses (at 15%) 8,266,635 Projected national availability as at 30th June 2013 ( 90kg Bags) 46,844,265 Expected total exports to East Africa Community region 0 Expected exports outside the EAC region 0 Amount used as seed (1% of household stocks) 468,443 Amount used for manufacturing industrial products (1.5% of stocks) 702,664 Amount used as animal feeds (2% of household stocks) 936,885 NATIONAL CONSUMPTION at a monthly rate of 3.72 million bags for 44,640,000 estimated population of 40 million people for 12 months Balance as at 30th June 2013 (surplus) 96,273

*Based on 2012 monthly imports estimates to data and 2013 projections

1.4 Priority interventions The following interventions are recommended for the high and medium potential areas in the next 4 months as preparations for the Long Rains 2013

 Survey to ascertain the quantities of fertilizers and seeds available before the commencement of the Long Rains planting season 2013.

 Review of the seeds mostly affected by the Maize Lethal Necrotic Disease (MLND) and appropriate strategies established to reduce the impact on maize production.

 Expansion of the fertilizers support programme for small scale farmers under the NAAIAP programme to cover more farmers.

 Survey on the pricing mechanism for feeds and supplements for livestock and provision of strategic inputs at government outlets to cushion farmers on exploitation by unscrupulous businessmen.

9  Support for the expansion of fingerling production for fish farmers and provision of inputs and supplements at subsidized rates.

 Improvement of infrastructure in fish farming areas (coolers) and milk producing areas to reduce on post harvest losses.

 Strengthen drying facilities in maize producing areas and improvement on redistribution mechanisms to reduce on imbalances and subsequently keep the maize price within manageable limits.

2.0 ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY AND SCOPE The 2012 Crop, Livestock and Fisheries assessment covered a total of 22 counties namely Vihiga,Kakamega,Bungoma,Busia,Kisumu,Siaya,Kisii,Migori,Homabay,Kericho,Nakuru,Nandi, TransNzoia,Uasin Gishu, Bomet, Narok, Kiambu, Muranga, Kirinyaga, Nyeri and Nyandarua.

2.1 Background and objectives The high rainfall areas are the grain basket of the country and contribute more than 80% of the food requirement in the country. A comprehensive food situation assessment covering crops, livestock and fisheries sectors was carried out. the objective of the assessment amongst others was to carry out the following:

 Assess the status of food situation with regard to production of major crops (Maize, Beans, and Irish Potatoes), Livestock (milk, poultry, feeds) and Fisheries; Food quality; Storage facilities at HH Level;  Assess the seed and fertilizers situation at during planting period 2011.  Assess the maize stocks currently held by HH, NCPBs, millers and Traders and make the projection for the next 9 months.  Analyze the challenges facing food production in the high and medium rainfall areas across the sectors.  Analyze the current food prices and trends.

2.2 Methodology and approach The assessment teams reviewed existing literature and carried out briefing kits prepared in advance for the purpose of evaluating the food situation in the regions. Secondary data was corroborated with key informant interviews, transect drives for observation. The interviews were guided by a check list prepared for each sector. The check list were sent to the field and filled in advance.

The teams met the Provincial heads of departments namely the Provincial Director of Agriculture, Livestock Production and Fisheries for discussions and review of production data presented by the counties. Each province submitted the 2012 production statistics and was compared with the previous years and where possible 5 year data was analyzed for establishing trends and identifying gaps.

Each assessment team then visited 6 counties to triangulate the information through discussions with the district technical SMSs and also through visits to the farmers fields and institutions including the markets. Upon completion of the field exercise a 5 day report writing workshop

10 was held to finalize the outcome of the assessment and is thus presented in this report in 5 clusters; Western , Nyanza, North Rift, South Rift and Central.

3.0 FOOD SITUATION BY CLUSTER

3.1 Western Cluster Food Situation

3.1.1 Background Information There are 4 counties in this cluster namely Bungoma, Busia, Kakamega and Vihiga.. The Cluster borders Uganda to the West, Trans Nzioa County to the North and North East, Uasin Gishu and Nandi to the East, Kisumu to the South, Siaya to South West and Uganda to the west. It has an estimated population of 4,334,282 persons and covers an area of 8,310 square kilometers. Of this area 6,960 square kilometers representing approximately 82%, is arable land. The counties are further subdivided into 33 districts. The main livelihood zones are mixed farming; cash cropping /sugarcane; Mixed farming food crop/cash crop/livestock fishing and fish farming Figure 2 : Western Cluster Map 3.1.2 Main Factors Affecting Food Situation

During the current year the western cluster was affected by the following factors; high cost of inputs especially seeds, fertilizers, fuel and feeds; poor infrastructure raising the cost of transport to and from the markets and livestock diseases especially, land fragmentation; pest and diseases foe livestock and crop production; Newcastle disease, tick borne diseases, worms and mastitis. Low soil fertility is increasingly becoming a major concern for food production evidenced by reduced yield per unit are for crops. In the Sugarcane growing zones, diversification has been hampered by the expanded cane growing. Though fish production is gaining momentum, the price of fish inputs is a major concern and is negating the gains made by the ESP. Heavy rains most of the early production months was reported to have reduced the yields of beans and vegetables due to flash floods.

3.1.3 Food production trends Early in the months of April and May the situation was precarious as the food situation was rapidly declining owing to disposal of stocks by households to meet the cost of farm inputs and other household needs like school fees. Lack of food stocks was compounded by the increased food commodity prices on the market further stressing households. Consequently, 70% of households in the cash cropping/sugarcane zone and about 50% of households in the mixed farming zone were stressed from March/April, 2011 as they mainly depended on the market for their stable food supply. The areas that are hardest hit are in the Busia and Vihiga counties where land parcels are small and the productivity in the farms is relatively low compared to Bungoma and Kakamega. The food situation has improved following the harvest in the last quarter of the year. The current market price of maize is above the 2011 prices but most households are presently relying on their own production. It is expected that the situation will remain stable for a number of months. Milk production has generally improved compared to 2011 and the current

12 rains being experienced in the cluster will support fodder production till the start of the long rains 2013.

Fish production among the aquaculture farmers is still stable however there has been a tendency for some farmers to drop out due to the ending of the support from the ESP programme.

3.1.4 Overall food situation Generally the cluster has a stable food situation in the Northern counties with the exception of Vihiga that basically relies on markets for most of its supply. The markets are however well provisioned and only access is affected by the price of commodities. The forage is fair in the mixed farming livelihood zone in the northern part of the cluster and good in the rest of the cluster. The production in both crops and livestock is generally average hence ensuring the household food availability and access. The prices of food commodities are high but this is mitigated by availability of the food stocks at household level. There is a general high price of fish in the markets which is probably due to increased demands and reduced fish capture from the neighbouring Lake Victoria.

3.1.5 Shocks and hazards

3.1.5.1 Rainfall Performance The 2012 long rains started normally during the second week of March. Overall, the regions received more rainfall of 100-190 percent of the normal as shown in Figure 3.

Fig 3: Rainfall Estimates for Central Bungoma, LTM 2011 300 200 100 0

Rainfall (mm) Rainfall JAN1FEB1MAR1APR1MAY1JUN1JUL1AUG1SEP1OCT1NOV1DEC1 Source: USGS FEWS NET

13 In terms of temporal, the 2012 long rains continued with no marked cessation up to the period of assessment. Furthermore, in terms of spatial distribution, most of the places received adequate to enhanced rains. Rainfall-related shocks i) Floods and water logging: Too much rains in April and May led to flash floods, especially in Teso and Bungoma South. About 2,150 Ha of various crops, especially beans and horticulture were destroyed with about 180 people directly affected. In addition, about 8 fish ponds were washed away leading to loss of standing stock. ii) Post Harvest losses: Continued through harvesting period in July and August resulted in post harvest losses, especially for beans and maize. Estimated 162 bags were lost in total. Other shocks i) Maize Lethal Necrotic Disease (MLND) Symptoms were reported amongst 40 farmers in Bungoma, 28 in Cheptais and 10 in Kimilili and 12 in Teso districts. An estimated 1,600 Ha was affected in total with lose range of 20 to 35 percent.

3.1.6 Impact of Shocks and Hazards

3.1.6.1 Crop Production The major food crops grown in the county during the long rains 2012 in order of importance include: maize, beans, sweet potatoes, sorghum and cassava. Cassava, sweet potatoes and sorghum are grown mainly to cushion farmers during maize deficit periods especially in Busia and Bungoma counties where they form a major component of their staple foods. However in Vihiga and Kakamega Maize is the predominant cereal. Sugarcane is grown as a cash crop mainly in all the counties and expansion of the area under the crop is eating into the area for Maize production.The opening of a new sugar factory in Matete (Butali market) reduced the maize production area in the northern areas of the cluster such as Bungoma county (Bungoma East, Bungoma North ) and Kakamega (Likuyani and Lugari,) which have been the grain baskets for the Western cluster. If the trend continues, a large area of maize land is likely to be converted into sugarcane production leading to food insecurity in the region. Crop performance for the Long rains 2011 and 2012 is as indicated in Table 2; Table 2. Long rains crop production for 2011 and 2012, Western Province 2012 2011 Crop Area planted Expected Area planted Production(Bags) (Ha) production(Bags) (Ha) Maize 175705 5362060 170982 5144006 Beans 106062 675560 134621 782502

There was a slight increase in both the area under maize crop and production of maize by about 3 and 4 percent respectively in the year 2012 compared to the 2011. This was mainly attributed to the timely onset of rains upper parts of the cluster particularly in the main maize growing areas

14 of Bungoma North,Kimilili,Mt Elgon,Cheptais Likuyani and Lugari districts. Good rains impacted positively to general crop performance. Unlike 2011, there was timely availability of appropriate certified maize seed for the diverse ecological zones. Beans production reduced by about 1 percent due reduction in area planted as well as heavy rains and hailstones.Main fertilizers used though highly priced and about 60- 90 percent depending on the county while over 90 percent of the farmers use certified maize seeds. Food Stocks Currently farmers are holding onto about 2.5 million bags of maize (Table 3). The amount available is adequate to feed the cluster for the next 6 months only .Some farmers are hoarding the maize in anticipation of better prices. Farmers will supplement maize with cassava and sweet potatoes in some areas. Table 3: Food stocks as at November 2012, Western Province Farmers stocks(90 Traders and NCPB Totals kg bag) millers Stocks (bags)

Maize 2,541,648 495,563 486,271 3,523,481 Beans 751,000 190,991 9610 976,014

Table 4: Food requirements for the next 6 months

Crop Population Consumption per Food Current Surplus month requirement stocks(farm for the next ers only) six months

Maize 2,242,920 249213 1,495,280 2,541,648 1,046,368

The region has a maize surplus of 1,046,368 bags .Some of the maize will find its way to the market and therefore most farm families will start buying maize from markets from the month of April until harvest time.

Post harvest Management Farmers in the region thresh their maize by beating, store in polythene bags in their houses. Most of the surplus harvested is immediately sold to traders within and outside the county to meet immediate income needs. Farmers also sell to avoid destruction by weevils such as the Larger Grain Borer. Lack of storage facilities is another factor which pushes farmers to sell their produce immediately.

3.1.6.2 Livestock Production The major livestock species in the Western cluster in order of socio-economic importance are local cattle, and local poultry. Others are local goats / sheep and dairy cattle, mostly

Figure 4: Livestock population, Western Province (PDLD Annual Report, 2011). crosses. Zebu cattle comprise approximately 80 percent of the total cattle population contribute significantly to the total milk production and household income. Indigenous poultry also contribute significantly as a source of income and food with the average holdings of 10 birds. Figure 4 indicates the cluster livestock population. (PDLD Western Annual Report, 2011).

Main livestock feed types include natural and .improved pastures, legumes, and napier grass. As shown in Fig 5, the natural pastures account for 84 percent in terms of acreage while improved pastures occupy 3 percent. This though is on a declining trend as indicated in Fig 6. Limited acreage of napier grass may also indicate the low level of dairy Production in the cluster. Stunted napier disease was also noted. Sugar cane farming in the cluster has a negative influence on acreage of both pasture and fodder resulting in decreased area. There is therefore potential for utilization of crop residues Figure 5: Pastures and Fodder Proportion particularly maize, bean straws and sugarcane tops. However, there is adequate forage and the condition is good. Concentrates are available but the high prices are prohibitive and hence inaccessible to farmers.

The general body condition of all livestock species was good and reproductive performance was normal there being enough feeds and no serious occurrences of reproductive diseases such as brucellosis. Reproduction interval for Zebu cattle was 1 calve in 2.5 years. Average household milk availability was 1.5 litres while the milk price averaged Kshss 60 /litre compared to Kshs 45 same period last year. Average livestock holdings per species were: Indigenous cattle-4; Dairy cattle-2; Indigenous Figure 6: Trend in pasture production in Western Poultry-10. The cluster is a milk and eggs deficit Province region with these products being imported from the North Rift Cluster and Uganda. Beef is mostly from dairy culls and indigenous Zebus and is prized at Kshs 280 /kg. Some of the challenges facing livestock production are high cost of inputs including breeding services, decreasing land sizes, diseases and poor breeds.

3.1.6.3 Fisheries Production

16 Fish production activities include fish farming (aquaculture) and capture fisheries which is typically done around Lake Victoria. In some areas of the cluster such as Busia County, fisheries activities provide nearly 80 percent of the total household income around the Lake..

Aquaculture

Fish farming as an enterprise has gained importance as a result of the Economic Stimulus Program, initiated by the Ministry of Fisheries in 2008. The main type of fish reared is the Nile Tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus) and Catfish (Clarias gariepinus). Most of the inputs were sourced from within the cluster. The table below shows the pond production statistics in the cluster for the year 2012.

Table 5: Status of aquaculture in Western

Busia Kakamega Vihiga Bungoma Total No. of ponds 1220 2745 1600 1525 7090 Area of 366000 823000 366000 457500 2012500 ponds No. of fingerlings 1220000 2718000 1220000 1502000 6660000 stocked Quantity of 206740 279048 137198 88031 711017 harvest Value 31011000 64892153 21951680 14710000 132564833

Capture fisheries

Capture fisheries is only significant in Busia County, where Lake Victoria is the source of the fish. The main species caught are Nile tilapia, Catfish, Omena, Nile Perch and lungfish. Total monthly production from January to October 2012 is 3,828,304 Kilograms valued at 382,262,110 shillings. The graph below shows the fish landings statistics in the Western cluster for the year 2012.

Others Fish production 2% Nile tilapia 29%

Omena 50% Nile perch 19%

Figure 7: Capture fisheries production in Western

17 3.1.6.4 Market and Trade Within the Western Cluster, the main food markets include Bungoma, Kakamega, Kimilili, Serem, Lubao, Kipkaren and Chwele. In these markets, the key participants in the food market include the households, traders, the National Cereals Produce Board (NCPB). Prices of food items are determined by the market although the effect of the NCPB price resulted in decline in producer prices of maize. Western Cluster borders Uganda and there is substantial cross border trade. Markets were functioning normally with maize, beans, fish, Irish potatoes and sweet potatoes dominating the food trade in this cluster.

Maize prices are seasonal and prices are relatively low immediately after harvest and increase during the time when no harvesting is done. Supply of maize in the markets is high from the month of August to January and during this period, maize prices tend to decline. The NCPB price during November was Kshss 2,800 per 90 Kg bag. In Most cases, the prevailing market maize prices were higher than the NCPB price level and above 2011 prices, which were Kshs 2100 per bag on average. Except in Bungoma County where a bag of maize was sold at Kshs 2,400 per 90 Kg bag, prices were above the NCPB price, in Busia and Vihiga where a 90 Kg bag was being sold at Kshss 3,150 and Kshss 3,600 respectively and this was attributed to low average production. Prevailing market prices were 20 percent above the farm gate prices of maize indicating the presence of transaction costs and spatial price variation.

The price of a kilogram of beans was being sold for Kshss 57 on average. Livestock marketing is not very elaborate but there is some substantial trade. The prices of cattle ranged between Kshss 10,000 to 20,000 for a 150 kilogram live weight while chicken ranged between Kshs 400 and 650. Goats and sheep ranged between Kshs 1,500 to Kshs 3,000. The main Fish types that are sold at the main markets include Tilapia, Omena and Mbuta (Nile perch). Fish price averaged Kshs 180 per kilogram and is below the normal price of Kshs 200 and the 2011 price which was Kshs 220. Seemingly, market prices are relatively lower in Busia County compared to other counties. This is attributed to the effect of cross border trade due to the main border point which is Malaba. The supply from Uganda lowers the market prices of food and livestock products.

Although functioning of the markets is normal, several impediments were evident. Market infrastructure particularly storage is poorly developed. There is a limitation of storage facilities that result in early disposal of harvest and thus create structural deficits and over supply leading to price fluctuations. As such, although prices are relatively stable for now, they are on an increasing trend through December festive season.

3.1.7 Challenges Facing Food Security The main challenges facing food security in crop production include encroachment of sugar cane into food crop farms especially in Lugari and Likuyani, use of uncertified seeds, poor agronomic practices, late delivery of subsidized fertilizers, declining soil fertility, overreliance on maize for food and high disease incidences such as the maize lethal necrotic disease. In livestock production, low livestock holdings, decreasing land sizes, high input costs, poor infrastructure especially the poor road network in the production areas, unreliable rainfall sometimes leading to floods, high livestock disease incidences such as trypanosomiasis and New

18 Castle Disease, poor breeding stocks and regular price fluctuations as a result of cross-border trade were identified as major challenges. Fish production in the county is also affected by unfair exploitation by middle men cartels thus low prices for the farmers, inadequate aquaculture skills by farmers, Lack of good quality fish feeds, high costs for fish inputs and predation on fish by birds and otters.

3.1.8 Food Security Prognosis The food situation in the Western cluster is stable. The stocks available are able to last for 4 to 6 months. The prices of maize have remained stable across the cluster. The current stocks are enough to last up to December – January by which time the short rains crop will be harvested. Households are therefore expected to have adequate food up to June – July when there will be scarcity of maize. However, farmers have planted other crops like beans, sweet potatoes, groundnuts and green grams which will greatly boost the food situation. Income from other sources such as dairy, horticulture and other cash crops will also greatly cushion the farmers. Milk availability at households will still be stable since pasture and fodder will be available to sustain production except in Samia where the forage is experiencing stunting as a result of the depressed rains.

19 3.2 Nyanza Cluster Fig 8: Nyanza Cluster Map

3.2.1 Background information Nyanza cluster is located between latitudes 0° 15'N and 1° 45'S, longitudes 35° 15' E and 34° E. It is bordered by Western Province to the North, Rift Valley Province to the East and the Republic of Tanzania and Uganda to the South and West respectively.

The cluster is divided into six administrative counties namely, Kisii, Nyamira, Homabay, Migori, Siaya and Kisumu.

The total area of the province is 15,646.8 km2 which represents about 2.5 per cent of the total land mass of Kenya. The total population in the cluster is estimated to be 4,328,683 with 618,313 households

The cluster has an arable land of 9,475km2. The area under agriculture is 490,200 hectares with an irrigation potential of 65,603km2.The main source of livelihood in this cluster is mixed farming and other livelihoods strategies include fishing cash crop farming and casual labour.

The cluster is characterized by sufficient rainfall for agricultural production with a bimodal rainfall pattern whose peaks are experienced in April/May and October/November.

The temperatures vary within the cluster depending on altitude and proximity to the lake. The annual minimum temperatures on the highlands are 24°C. On the other hand temperatures vary from 17° to 18°C and maximum temperatures vary between 27° C and 34.8°C.

3.2.2 Main factors Affecting Food Situation The factors that affected food production this year included the following

 Low use of fertilizers and inadequate use of uncertified seed – in Most of the counties there was a delay in the supply of the major fertilizers demanded by farmers. But in addition, low quantities of DAP and CAN fertilizers used in maize production have also been reported across the cluster.

 The Maize Lethal Necrotic Disease affected a number of districts, though the impact in general was not significant in the Long Rains except for isolated cases such as Borabu where the effect was near total crop failure. .

20  High incidences of diseases in other crops and livestock – The most affected crop are the bananas whereby in some areas south of the cluster and in the highlands of Kisii, whole orchards of the apple banana have been swept.

 Poor storage practices at farm level - Most of the cereals harvested are sold at harvest due to lack of storage facilities. Most farmers store the cereals in the houses due to rampant cases of theft. The LGB is also a major threat in storage.

 Low ex-vessel fish prices for fisherman compared to high cost of fishing inputs

 Poor road network for accessing the fishing grounds

 Inadequate fish handling facilities at landing sites thus high post harvest loses especially for Omena

 Poor infrastructure has hampered the ease of flow of inputs and farm produce in some of the areas.

 Diminishing land resource due to high human population growth hence pressure on land for forage and crop production e.g. in Kisii

 Theft of fish and predators in fish ponds.

3.2.3 Food Production Trends Food production has generally remained stable in all the counties in the Nyanza cluster. The counties basically depend on the rainfed agriculture for the production of their major crops. During the 2012 cropping year, the area that was put under Maize cultivation was 227,130 Ha compared to 198,395 Ha in 2011. Crop production is said to be improving as a result of the interventions being instituted by the Ministry. The maize stocks held at household levels are equally declining over time due to poor storage facilities at farmer level and of the produce by the Larger Grain Borer. The long rains season production was also good and household obtained normal harvest. Maize is the staple food in the district and currently, most households have 2-5 bags of maize in their stores which is enough to push them until next harvest in December for the short rains harvest. Households in the county also consume a lot of cassava mixed with sorghum and therefore supplement maize in their daily meals. Being at the border, the county receives substantial cereals supplies from Tanzania. The border has also not had any disruptions and both internal and external markets functioned normally. Milk output has slightly increased but the demand is not being met. The current average milk production is 5 liters per cow per day in the highland areas of Kisii and Nyamira but much lower (1 Liter per cow per day) in lowland areas of Siaya, Nyando, Bondo and Homabay.

3.2.4 Overall Food Situation Many areas in the Nyanza cluster are currently reporting a stable food security status. The cluster currently has enough maize to support it up to December when the short rain crops are expected to replenish the current grain stocks. In the lower areas of Siaya, parts of Homabay, Bondo, Rachuonyo and Nyatike, some households are relying on markets for their cereals with income from other sources of livelihoods, some of these areas were affected by the Maize disease and

21 have low stocks available at household level. The highland areas of Nyanza are fair in cereals as compared to the lowlands which supplements cereals deficits with production of tuber crops. With the increasing demand for maize and the increasing pressure on arable land, the productivity level will need to improve so that the cluster do not slide to total dependence on import maize. The prices of commodities are fairly high and may increase later when the harvests are exhausted or when the produce is sold as happens every start of the year for school fees purposes. Alternative food sources such as cassava, millet, sorghum and sweet potatoes will be handy at that time. In milk production, the cluster is deficit and currently supplement by importing from neighbouring clusters. However, there is an increasing interest among farmers towards high yielding exotic dairy cows from which might reverse the trend in the near future.

3.2.5 Shocks and hazards

3.2.5.1 Rainfall Performance In the highlands of Nyanza Province, notably Kisii and Nyamira as well as the South and South- Eastern parts covering Migori and Homabay, onset of 2012 long rains was normal. In the Kisii highlands, the rains started in the third week of February while in the rest of the Province, the long rains started late, mainly in the 1st week of April.

In the Kisii highlands, both temporal and spatial distributions were good and higher amounts were received at the end of the season as shown in figure 9. In all the areas, the rainfall was above normal and continued into the short rains season. In other parts of the region, the long rains were poorly distributed in terms of time and space leading to flash floods as well as hailstones in areas such as lower parts of Homabay district and Kisumu counties. There was enhanced rains, especially in the months of April and May. In general, cessation was early In most parts of the region except the Kisii highlands.

Rainfall Estimates for Suneka, Kisii 200 LTM 2011 2012 180

160

140

120

100

Rainfall (mm) 80

0 J AN1 F E B1 MAR 1 AP R 1 MAY 1 J UN1 J UL 1 AUG 1 S E P 1 OC T1 NOV1 DE C 1 Source: USGS FEWS NET Figure 9: 2012 Rainfall distribution, Kisii, Nyanza Province

3.2.5.2 Rainfall related shocks Flash floods: Due to enhanced rains in April and May, several parts of the region experienced flash floods with occasional landslides, especially in the Kisii highlands. Table 6 gives a summary of crop area affected by floods during 2012 long rains. About 1,300 people were directly affected by the floods.

Table 6: Crops affected by floods, 2012 long rains Kisumu Nyando- Homabay- Rachuonyo Rachuonyo Nyakach- Ndhiwa- Total East- Ha Ha North- Ha South- Ha Ha Ha HA CROP Ha Maize 800 600 50 300 30 400 100 2,280 Sorghum 450 300 50 110 20 100 10 1,040 Rice 20 0 0 0 0 20 0 40 Beans 20 140 40 50 20 0 60 330 Cowpeas 70 110 5 30 0 0 0 215 Green Grams 60 80 0 0 0 0 0 140 Kales 70 5 30 40 0 0 0 145 Tomatoes 30 10 15 10 0 0 0 65 Totals 1,520 1,245 190 540 70 520 170 4,255

Other shocks Maize Lethal Necrotic Disease (MLND)

The disease symptoms were observed mainly in the Kisii highlands, especially districts bordering Bomet. Table 2 is a summary of area affected by MLND during long rains 2012.

Table 7: Areas affected by MLND in Kisii. District Division Area in Ha Kisii Central All divisions 25 Masaba South All divisions 110 Nyamira All divisions 2,000 Borabu All divisions 8,000

Total 10,125

3.2.6 Impact of shocks and hazards

3.2.6.1 Crop production The main food staples grown in the region are maize, beans, and sorghum and cassava .Other crops grown in the region include sweet potatoes, tobacco and sugarcane which are mainly grown for income. During the long rains season, most farmers in the region sourced fertilizers from local stockists as the subsidized fertilizers was not available until the month of May which

23 was past planting time of February-March. Therefore the government subsidized fertilizer was not able to assist farmers exposing them to high prices hence under application. Sugarcane in Migori county is affecting Maize hacterage as farmers are shifting to sugarcane and tobacco production.

Table 8: Maize and Beans production 2011 and 2012 in Nyanza

Crop 2012 2011 Area under Production(Bags) Area Planted(Ha) Productio LR crops(Ha) n (Bags) Maize 227,130 4,702,200 204,145 4,183,915 Beans 127824 969590 106643 793215

As tabulated in Table 8, the area under maize and beans increased by 11 and 20 percent respectively while the production increased by 12 and 22 percent respectively. There was a general increase in the area under cassava due to adequate promotion through supply of improved varieties. The production per hectare for maize increased from 20 bags per hectare in 2011 to 21 bags per hectare in 2012.

Maize and beans stocks The current stocks for major staples stands at about 3.5 million bags of maize and 0.5 million bags of beans as shown in Table 9. The maize stocks are adequate for majority of the households till the next harvest. However, about 60% of the households are relying on maize as income and hence end up selling the harvest to solve other domestic financial obligations such as school fees and health.

Table 9: Maize and Beans stocks in Nyanza

Crop Farmers Stocks Traders Stocks Millers Stocks NCPB Stocks Total Maize 2508680 735961 8575 266239 3,519,455 Beans 352,550 136,825 0 936 490,311

Food requirements Nyanza cluster expects to harvest about 4,702,200 bags of maize from the long rains crop. At a consumption of about 604,969 bags per month, the region requires about 3,629,814 bags (Table 10) which is adequate for the next six months (up to June 2013) with a surplus of 863,715 bags. However based on farmer’s current stocks of 2,508,680 bags, the cluster has a deficit of 1,121,134 bags for the next six months. This is because some of the farmers have sold their produce and have to rely on maize from outside as well as other food commodities such as cassava and sorghum.

24 Table 10: Maize requirements in Nyanza

Crop Population Consumption Stocks with Maize requirements deficit per month farmers Bags) for the next 6 (Bags)) (Bags) months(Bags) Maize 5,761,629 604,969 2,508,680 3,629,814 (1,121,134.00)

3.2.6.2 Livestock Production The major livestock species in Nyanza cluster in order of socio-economic importance are local cattle, local poultry and sheep. Others are local goats and dairy cattle, mostly crosses. Zebu cattle comprise approximately 87 percent of the total cattle population contribute significantly to the total milk production and household income. Indigenous poultry also contribute significantly as a source of income and food. The fodder and pasture situation was good with increased acreage for fodder development. Pasture and browse is in good condition in is expected to last next rain season. This is attributed to fair spatial distribution of rains which resulted to good regeneration of pasture and browse. As a result, the livestock body condition was good.

Figure 10: Price trends for commercial feeds in Nyanza

As shown in Figure 10, generally, the prices of key commercial livestock feeds increased by 12- 33 percent between 2011 November and 2012 November. The price of chick mash recorded the highest increase of 33 percent in august 2012 compared to the same period in 2011. Increased input cost affects access and therefore livestock production.

In 2011, Milk production increased by 16 percent compared to 5 percent in 2010 and eggs increased by 4 percent. It is expected the trend will continue in 2012 (PDLP Nyanza annual report, 2011). The average livestock holding are; indigenous Cattle - 4, Dairy cattle – 1, Sheep – 6, Indigenous Goats – 4, and indigenous poultry – 10. On average households retain 1 litre of milk for home use. The average price of milk is Kshs 60 per litre. The cluster none-the-less is milk and egg deficit region hence the high prices.

25 3.2.6.3 Fisheries Production In this cluster, both the aquaculture and capture fisheries are very important. The Kenyan part of Lake Victoria is found in this region, which produces about 90 percent of all the fish exported outside Kenya, mainly in European markets. There are three fish of commercial importance in Lake Victoria; Rastrionobola argentea (Omena), Lates nilotica (Nile perch) and Oreochromis niloticus (Nile tilapia).

Aquaculture Development Aquaculture is increasingly becoming important as one of the economic activities in Nyanza. This may be attributed mainly to the introduction and implementation of the government-funded Fish Farming Enterprise Productivity Program and the intervention of other development partners such as FAO, GIZ, Israel, and Farm Africa among others. There were 7,585 fish farmers in this cluster with a total of 8653 fish ponds covering a total 2 surface area of 1,787,159 m as shown in the graph below. It is projected that by the end of the year, 2012, a total of 2,595,900 kilograms, valued at Kshss.648, 975,000, will be harvested by farmers.

Percent fish production from each county in Nyanza Homabay Siaya 26% 24%

Kisii 20% Kisumu 12% Migori Nyamira 6% 13% Figure 11: Fish production from aquaculture in Nyanza

In fish farming the main inputs are fingerlings, inorganic/organic manures, fishing gears and pond liners. Over 90 percent of all the tilapia and Catfish fingerlings were sourced from Dominion, a private commercial fish farm within the cluster. In addition, there were other authenticated fish farms which also remained important sources of fingerlings such as Sang`oro and Jewlet. Both the inorganic and organic fertilizers were sourced locally within the cluster. The fish feeds were sourced from Nakuru and Nairobi, which is outside the cluster. The price per kilogram of pelletized floating feeds was Kshs. 85 per Kilogram which is also the normal price. About 100 percent of the pond liners were procured from outside the cluster and about 75 percent of all fishing gears were sourced locally mainly in Kisumu. The table below shows important sources of aquaculture inputs, their sources and cost.

Table 11: Aquaculture inputs sources and costs

Input type percent sourced from percent sourced from Current Normal outside the cluster within the cluster price price (Kshs.) (Kshs.) Fingerlings 0 100 7 5 Feeds 25 75 85/kg 85/kg Manure 0 100 100/kg 80/kg Fertilizer 0 100 70/kg 50/kg

26 Liners 100 0 200/m 180/m Gears 25 75 900/m 900/m

Capture fisheries During the year 2011, fish production from Lake Victoria increased to 129,553 MT valued at KShs 13,490,227,000 compared to 111,867 MT valued at Kshs 11,543,125,000 landed in 2010 and 108,934 MT valued at Kshss.10,809,831,000 of the year 2009. The figure below shows the trends in fish production from Lake Victoria since 2005.

Figure 12: Trends in fish production from Lake Victoria

3.2.6.4 Market and trade The market network in Nyanza cluster includes Kisumu, Siaya, Bondo, Homabay, Migori, Rongo, Kisii, Nyamira, Keroka, and Oyugis among other smaller markets in the divisions. Markets were reportedly functioning normally and prices were stable. The main traded food items include maize, beans, fish, livestock. Market demand and supply follows a seasonal trend. Between August and December, market purchases account for only about 20 percent of the food consumed in the household but this proportion increase during slack period between January and July. The exception here is Nyamira County which, for now, 50 percent of food consumed is being sourced from the market following the effects of Maize Lethal Necrosis Disease (MNLD). Demand for food items particularly maize is high between January and July. The market demand will be driven by that households will have already exhausted their stocks and will be highly dependent on the markets for a significant proportion of their food. However, market demand declines Figure 13: Maize price trend in Kisumu between August and December a time

27 when households are harvesting maize and a larger proportion of food consumed is from their farms. During the slack period-January to July, supply comes from markets outside the cluster including Eldoret, Nandi, Bomet, Transmara and Tanzania for the lower side of the cluster; Migori County.

Prices, particularly for maize also trend the seasonality. Prices peek during between May to June due to decreased supply and increased dependence on the markets. Prices across the markets are stable but are 8 percent below November 2011 prices. For example, in Kisumu, the November 2012 maize prices are comparable to the five-year average but are below 2011 prices on the month-to-month comparison. The November 2012 prices of beans are slightly higher than those of similar month in 2011.

Livestock prices have been increasing driven by increase in demand for livestock products. For instance, in Migori County, November 2012 cattle prices were 150 to 200 percent above the long term average and 100 percent above the previous year’s price. The demand for fish outstrips the supply and thus prices are always high. The main source of fish is Lake Victoria. However, there is significant supply form Lake Turkana particularly for the dried fish. In addition, there is also substantial amount that comes from the ponds within the region. Fish prices vary across the county because of location, whether they are capture fisheries or aquaculture. For instance, in Kisumu ex-vessel prices for Nile perch as sold by fishermen at the landing beaches was Kshs. 157 per kilogram. While the farm gate price of Tilapia harvested from ponds was Kshss. 361 per kg. Price exhibit spatial variation due to transaction costs. In Nyamira County which is away from the Lake Victoria shores, prices are higher compared to those in Kisumu bordering the lake shore. A Kilogram of Nile Perch was being sold at Kshs 200 compared to Kshs 160 in Kisumu. Table 12 : Comparative Fish market Prices from Lake Victoria and Lake Turkana

Main Fish Species Current Price (Kg) Normal Prices (kg) Normal Sources Rank Wholesale Retail Wholesale Retail 1. Sun-dried Omena Siaya/Migori 85 100 85 95 2. Fried Tilapia Turkana 175 210 175 210 3. Haplochromis Siaya/Migori 90 100 85 90 4. Barbus Turkana 165 180 165 180

3.2.7 Challenges The main challenges facing food security in the cluster are late delivery of farm inputs especially the subsidized fertilizers, replacement of food crops with tobacco and sugarcane, increased incidences of storage pests such as the larger grain borer, Incidences of field diseases like the maize lethal necrotic disease and hailstones which led to total loss of the bean crop.

The livestock sector faced major challenges during the period under review which included cattle rustling in Borabu, high disease incidences such as the new castle disease, high feed costs and poor road network in the production areas.

28 In the fisheries sub-sector, there is declining catches of fish in the lake due to deterioration of the lake habitat through pollution by effluents and infestation by aquatic weeds such as water hyacinth and increasing fishing effort,

3.2.8 Food Security Prognosis The food security status in the County has remained stable as most people have harvested the long rains crop. The situation is likely to remain stable for the next 3 months as households exhaust their food stocks. However, the stocks will be replenished with the short rains crop that is currently flowering in the field. In some areas within the cluster, about 20-25 households may deplete their stocks before then as they are selling it to meet other non-food requirements including school fees. They will therefore depend entirely on markets and also utilize other food commodities. In some areas in South Nyanza, household stocks are likely to be depleted during the months of March and April. Although the households are expecting harvests from the short rains season in December, the second crop contributes 20-30 percent only of total food consumed by households. Milk supply also will follow a similar trend; in February-May, milk supplies to households will drop and will likely to improve in June.

The fish is likely going to be in limited in supply particularly in Homabay district. This situation is likely going to be exacerbated in January and February during the dry spell.

29 3.3 NORTH RIFT CLUSTER

3.3.1 Background Information For purposes of the assessment, the North Rift Cluster consists of Uasin Gishu, Trans Nzoia, and Nandi counties. The cluster is a highland plateau ranging from 1500-2400m above sea level and receives 900-2100mm on average of rainfall per year. The southern part, mainly Nandi receives the bimodal rainfall pattern while Uasin Gishu and Trans Nzoia have the unimodal type of rainfall. The cluster is mainly a mixed farming livelihood zone.

The human population within the 3 counties in the cluster is about 3,108,642 people (KNBS 2009). This cluster is popularly referred to as the Grain basket of the country because it is the leading producer of maize and wheat in the country and houses the largest maize silo in the country at Moi’s Bridge. The cluster is also known to produce substantial amounts of milk and tea. Leading dairy livestock breeders like Figure 14: North Rift Cluster Map Makongi Farm are found here. Fish is also picking up with the introduction of aquaculture in the cluster.

3.3.2 Factors affecting food situation The main factors which constrained food productions in this cluster during the January-October long rain season were; high cost of production occasioned by high input prices in the market, delay in the supply of inputs recommended and preferred maize seed varieties and fertilizers at planting time by merchants, unavailability of certified Irish potatoes planting materials and falls start of the long rains. Production of beans was again affected by the wet conditions during harvesting. Increased costs of feeds and transport during the period seriously affected livestock production, especially milk production, eggs, fish and broilers.

3.3.3 Food production trends There was an improvement in food production compared to the previous year, for instance in Nandi, maize production increased from 2,005,090 bags to 2,518,245 bags. While that of beans in the same county increased from 116,535 bags to 152,090 bags. In the year 2010, the cluster produced 13,146,045 bags of maize, 527,905 bags of beans and 527,905, 855 bags of wheat.

3.3.4 Overall food situation Generally, the long season rains for the year 2012 were reliable and adequate for crop and livestock production. The onset of rains was from mid March as expected and the rains continued

30 up to September which led to good crop yields. Food situation is stable and production will sustain the county and the contribution to the National consumption significantly for the next 5 - 6 months. However, it is worth noting that the areas which have established the short rains crop have shown signs of the maize disease and as such poses a major threat to food security in the county and the country at large. Milk production is good and surplus production is already being achieved, for instance TransNzoia produced 125 million kilograms of milk against a consumption of only 18 million litres. .

3.3.5 Shocks and Hazards

3.3.5.1 Rainfall Performance

In the Northern parts covering Trans Nzoia and Uasin Gishu, rainfall onset was timely, coming in the 2nd week of March. However, in the Southern parts covering Nandi county, onset delayed by about 2 weeks, coming on the 1st week of April. Overall, rainfall in the region was high, reliable and evenly distributed. The amount of rainfall received ranged between 900mm- 1300mm per annum, and was 100-130 percent of the normal. Enhanced rains were noted mainly in April, May and June. However, the rains continued up to the assessment period in November 2012 as shown in figure 1.

Figure 15: Rainfall Estimate for Central Trans Nzoia

3.3.5.2 Rainfall related shocks i) Flash floods and water logging Enhanced rains and flush floods received in May affected mainly beans production; about 240 Ha was destroyed. In addition, continued high rains during harvesting time led to increased incidences of post harvest losses, especially for maize. Estimated 2,000 bags was lost. The Maize

31 Lethal Necrosis Disease (MLND) was reported in Tinderet District, about 80 Ha of maize was affected.

3.3.6 Impact of the season on food production

3.3.6.1 Crop Production The main food crops grown in the cluster are maize, beans and wheat. Maize account for about 69 percent of the area under food crops followed by beans which accounts for 21 percent. Wheat which is mainly grown in Transzoia and Uasin Gishu counties account for about 9 percent of area under food crops. Other minor food crops grown include Irish potatoes, sorghum, sweet potatoes and cassava. Maize is the main staple food but is also grown as a cash crop in most parts of the county. Tea is the main cash crop and is mainly grown in Nandi County.

Crop performance Crop production was generally favoured by the enhanced and well distributed rainfall experienced during the season. Required seeds and fertilizers were also available compared to the previous year. The area under maize increased by about four percent while production increased by 16 percent as shown in Table 13.Attractive maize prices are encouraging farmers to plant more maize. The area under beans and wheat reduced by 9 and 12 percent respectively as more area was put under maize. Wheat production consequently reduced by about 22 percent from about 1.1 million bags in 2011 to about 860 bags in 2012 while production of beans reduced from 385,805 bags in 2011 to 318,160 bags in 2012.

Table 13: Crop production in North Rift Crop 2011 2012 Area under Expected Area planted production LR crops(Ha) production Maize 251,584 10,831,705 261,258 12,606,410 Beans 76,247 385,805 69,762 318,160 Wheat 34,230 1,107,601 30,188 864,375 Irish potato 1,727 120,754 1,661 95,156

Maize and beans stocks Currently the farmers are holding 4,502,108 bags of maize compared to 1,193,685 bags held during the same period last year. During the same period last year, most farmers had harvested and sold most of their maize stocks. Farmers stocks are expected to increase as more farmers harvest their maize. Current maize stocks held by traders is 662,403 bags compared to 362,265 bags held last year. The ongoing harvesting of maize has enabled easy accessibility to traders and increased supply of maize in the market.

Maize consumption The cluster has a population of about 2.4 million people which consumes about 260,000 bags of maize per month. The maize requirement for the next six months is therefore about 1,553,540

32 bags. With the expected harvest of about 12.6 million bags from the 2012 long rains season, a surplus of about 11million bags will be available for release into the maize deficit areas and National Cereals and Produce Board.

3.3.6.2 Livestock Production Dairy production is predominant in north rift. Nandi County has a population of 309,038 dairy cattle, 600,613 indigenous chicken, 121,461 sheep, 46,669 goats and 41,846 commercial chickens with livestock production enterprises contributing 50-60 percent of household income.Uasin Gishu County has 397,442 dairy cattle and earned Kshs3.921 billion from the sale of milk during the period under review. The number of Poultry in the same period stood at 1,015,189 majority of which is indigenous chicken (86 percent). The average livestock holding in the county is 3 dairy cattle per farmer, 6 chickens and 1 goat/sheep. In Trans Nzoia County, dairy enterprise is ranked second to maize. Apart from dairy cattle, the county has zebu cattle, sheep, goats and poultry. Milk prices in these areas have been fluctuating from Kshs 23-40 per litre by local traders and KCC being major players in milk marketing.

Livestock body condition, health and productivity, of all the livestock species remained good due to good weather condition. The main dairy production system is free-range on natural pastures, whilst intensive forage production is being practiced in the mixed farming upper highland zones. where most farmers depend on fodder and livestock concentrates for feeding animals under zero grazing system.

There is a general drop in the prices of pastures with a bale of hay dropping from Kshss 300 to Kshss 200 in Trans Nzoia County. The commercial concentrates such as dairy meal increased in price ( Kes.1950 currently up from Kes.1500 same time last year) Out of the total pastureland, 78% is under natural pasture, 18% under improved pastures, 2.7% under Napier grass, and less that 1% under legumes and fodder tress. Figure 16: Pasture land in North Rift

The main challenges in the livestock sector included sourcing for good quality breeding stock, inadequate A.I.services and high cost of commercial concentrates.

3.3.6.3 Fisheries production Fish farming (aquaculture) forms the main fishery activity in the county, the enterprise has experienced a steady rise in value especially after the launching of the Fish Farming Enterprise Productivity Programme (FFEPP) in August 2009. Currently, the cluster has 2000 fish ponds with a total area of 139,950 square meters. These were stocked with 1,460,000 tilapia fingerlings last year. A total of 606,664.75 kilograms of fish valued at Kshss.31 million shillings has been harvested since the inception of the FFEPP programme. The main inputs (fingerlings, fish feed and pond liners) were sourced from outside the region. The table below shows the increase in the number of fish farmers as well as the number of ponds in Uasin Gishu County within the cluster. The same pattern was replicated in all other Counties within the cluster.

Table 14: Status of aquaculture in Uasin Gishu

33 Area of Weight Area of No. Value of Fish No. No. ponds of fish Year ponds ponds Harvested Farmers ponds harvested harvested (M2) harvested (Kshss) (m2) (Kg) 2010 480 628 149,210 25 18,540 118 20,600 2011 1,520 1,728 486,900 1,017 30,3703 592,291 142,149,840

3.3.6.4 Marketing and Trade The main markets in the cluster are Kapsabet, Eldoret Municipality and Kitale. Market operations were normal, during the period. The main food commodities sold in the markets are maize, beans and Irish potatoes. Wheat and poultry are also cash income commodities in the cluster. 6000

5000 Food commodity prices are currently lower

4000 than the November 2011 prices (same Current market month). The lower prices are attributed to

3000 price(2012) KSh/Bag 2000 Market price same period the increased production and harvesting last year period which is on-going. Currently a bag of 1000 maize is being sold at Kshs 2,850 compared 0 Maize Beans Irish to Kshs 2,900 in November, 2011. potatoes Currently, the prices for beans per bag is Figure 17: Commodity prices ,2011 and 2012 Kshs 5500 per bag compared to Kshs 5,650 last year, same period.

The main market outlet for milk in the Milk price trends(2011 and 2012) cluster are milk processors mainly 37 36 Brookside Dairies and Kenya Cooperative 35 34 Creameries (KCC). Nonetheless, 25-35 33 32 2012 percent of milk is sold directly to consumers. 31 2011 30 29

Milk price per Kg perpriceMilk The price of milk for the current year is 28 27 lower compared to the previous year as Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Figure 18: Milk price trend 2011 and 2012 shown in Figure 18 due to increased supply. In may a kilogram of milk was selling at Kshs. 35 but this has reduced to current price Kshs.30 per kilogram.

3.3.7 Food Security Prognosis The food security situation in the cluster is expected to remain stable up to the next harvesting of maize in October 2013.The long rains maize harvests are expected to last to the next harvest. The price of maize has remained stable ranging from about Kshs 3000 in January 2012 to Kshs.2160 in November 2012.The price of maize and other food commodities are expected to rise in the months of January to July 2012 but most of the households are likely to be cushioned by their own stocks of maize and other alternative sources of income especially dairy and horticultural enterprises. Maize being one of the major income sources in the cluster, the expected price

34 increases will improve earnings to households with surplus and improve accessibility to other food stuff. Milk production is on the upward trend and Milk prices have also increased, but the cost of producing a liter of milk has increased due to high cost of feeds leading to reduced income. However, the milk production may reduce slightly from January to March 2013 when a dry spell is expected but production will still be adequate to sustain households and earn income for use in accessing food stuff and other livelihood requirements. Households in most parts of the cluster are also expected to continue earning income from other cash crops to supplement other

3.3.8 Challenges

35 3.4 SOUTH RIFT CLUSTER

3.4.1 Background information Figure 19: South Rift Cluster Map South Rift cluster comprises districts falling under the counties of Nakuru, Narok, Kericho, Bomet and Nandi. During the recently concluded long rains food security assessment exercise, a total of twelve districts were covered. The surface area of this cluster is 16,500 km2 and has a human population of 2.7 million with 591,551 households (KNBS, 2009). The region falls within two main ecological zones, Upper Highlands and Upper Midlands with an average annual temperature range of between 17oC and 27oC.

The region receives bimodal rainfall with long rains coming in the months of March to August and short rains coming in October and November. The region, apart from Narok North which is agro-pastoral, falls under a mixed farming zone. On average, livestock enterprises contribute about 50% of household income, crop production contributes about 40% and while about 10% is earned from other out of farm sources.

3.4.2 Factors affecting food situation During the long rains of 2012 there was generally high cost of farm inputs especially fertilizers and seeds coupled with delays in stocking at retail level. Subsequently, there was shortage of fertilizers and recommended seed varieties during planting time. South rift is typically a cereal production area and the high cost of farm operations due to increased fuel costs(in areas where use of machinery is high) was a major set back. The area is also experiencing high subdivision of land into small uneconomical units. For fisheries the cluster reported generally shortage of fingerlings and high cost of feeds and pond liners.

3.4.3 Food Production Trend The cluster usually experiences food shortages at around March and July. Food shortages during this months result from unavailability of food stocks which had been sold to prepare land, purchase farm inputs and meet other household needs. About 40 percent of the households depended on markets and this trend heightened in May -June when the price of food commodities was on the increase. However, this scenario changed when they started harvesting beans and maize.

36 During the year, most of the districts in the south rift experienced the maize disease which resulted into loss of crop estimated at between 60-100 percent. Bean crop reduced by 5 percent due to torrential rains. However for sorghum and sweet potatoes there was an increase resulting from serious campaigns to diversify production. The current price of a 90 kilogram bag stands at Kshs. 2800 but was approaching Kshs. 3500 in august before harvest.

3.4.4 Overall Food Situation The region received very heavy rains during the last long rain season that led to very good harvests being realized, However, most of the South Rift districts will not have sufficient grain as usually is the case owing to the effect of the Maize disease. The condition of forage is still good and consequently livestock body condition is also good across the cluster. Milk production was estimated at over 600 million kilograms per year against the annual consumption of 450 million kilograms hence its availability to the households. The milk is sold as far as parts of western Kenya including, Nyanza and Western Provinces. Market prices of major food commodities increased significantly from May and peaked up in August. Milk prices have stabilized after hitting a high of Kshs 50 per litre at retail in the month of April.

3.4.5 Shocks and hazards

3.4.5.1 Rainfall performance The long rains was a month late, as the rains started in rains started in the second dekad of April instead of the LTA, which is second dekad of March. The amounts of rain received were 80- 180 percent of normal. Temporal and spatial distribution was even throughout the county. In most places, the rains continued Figure 20: Rainfall estimate for Sotik Bomet throughout the season with no dry spell or marked cessation up to the period of assessment as shown in Figure 20.

Rainfall shocks The shocks experienced during 2012 rainfall included flush floods, water logging and hailstones. Table … shows the main shocks experienced during 2012 long rains, crop area and number of farmers affected.

Table 15: Major shocks during 2012 Long Rains

37 Crop area No. of Interventions affected (Ha) farmers affected Maize , Floods, water 520 2812 Received relief food for the beans, logging affected. Beans, Hailstones 3900 785 potatoes

3.4.5.2 Other shocks i) Maize Lethal Necrosis Disease (MLND). The disease was first reported in Bomet District rapidly spread in the whole county and reduced maize production by about 67 percent. The most affected districts were Chepalungu and Sotik where only 3 percent and 13 percent of the targeted production was achieved respectively. In Bomet and Konoin Districts achieved production was 20 percent and 50 percent of the targeted production respectively. Compared to the previous year, maize production reduced by about 43 percent in the Bomet county. Apart from Bomet, MLND was also confirmed in Naivasha where about 82 Ha was affected. Table16 shows areas affected by MLND in the South Rift.

Table 16: Geographical spread of MLND in South Rift District Area Crop loss Geographical spread affected(Ha) Bomet 6,500 67 percent All divisions affected. The disease pressure changed with the weather being low during wet and cold weather and becoming very high during dry weather conditions. Only 20% of expected yield was realized. The quality of the harvested maize was very bad with a lot of rotting observed. Chepalungu 14,500 97 percent Initially only in Sigor Division but later spread to other parts of the district. The situation was bad with many farmers reporting 100% loss. The few who harvested got poor quality maize that got rotten and shrived. Farmers planted beans and sweet potatoes to replace maize Sotik 8,500 90 percent All divisions were affected. About 3000Ha was completely destroyed. Harvested grains were yellowish and rotten. Konoin 110 50 percent Affected Cheptalal, Konoin division and some farms in Kimulot division. Area neighbouring Bomet was the most affected. Naivasha 82 30 percent 10 percent

3.4.6 Impacts of the season on food production

3.4.6.1 Crop production The main food crops grown in the cluster are maize, beans and wheat. Maize account for about 55 percent of the area under food crops followed by wheat which accounts for 21 percent. Beans

38 account for about 18 percent. Other minor food crops grown include Irish potatoes, sorghum, sweet potatoes and cassava. Wheat is mainly growth for cash in Narok County. Tea is the main cash crop and is mainly grown in Bomet and Kericho County. Other cash crops include sugarcane, coffee and pyrethrum. Maize is the main staple food but it is also used as a cash crop in most parts of the cluster.

Crop performance Enhanced and well distributed rainfall experienced during the season favoured crop production. There was an increase in area and production of most food crops. As shown in Table 17, area under maize increased by about 12 percent while production increased by 24 percent. About 7,427,216 bags of maize are expected to be harvested in the cluster compared to 5,945,136 bags in 2011.Area under wheat increased by about 50 percent. There was also an increase in yields of wheat from 14 bags/ha in 2011to 20 bags/ha in 2012 resulting in increased production of over 100 percent. Maize production was however affected by the Maize Lethal Necrosis Disease (MLND) in Bomet County and some parts of Narok County. The disease affected about 30,000 Ha of maize in Bomet County leading to reduction in maize production by about 75 percent. Excessive rainfall affected production of beans in some parts of the cluster but overall production was higher compared to the previous year as farmers put more area under beans.

Table 17: Crop production in South Rift Crop 2012 2011 Area under LR Expected Area planted(Ha) Production crops(Ha) production Bags/MT Bags/MT Maize 240771 7427216 213876 5945136 Beans 77703 473148 77415 472785 Wheat 92741 1856269 60832 846432 Irish 22662 477967 22788 235463 potato

Maize and beans stocks Currently the farmers are holding 1, 666,403 bags of maize compared to 1,831,570 bags held during the same period last year. Stocks held by farmers are, however, expected to increase as farmers continue harvesting maize. The lower stocks are attributed to delay in harvesting occasioned by late onset of the rains. The traders are holding 282,750 bags of maize compared to 249640 bags in 2011.

Maize/food requirements The cluster has a population of about 4.1 million people which consumes about 444,400 bags of maize per month. The maize requirement for the next six months is therefore about 2,666,420 bags. With the expected harvest of about 7,427,220 bags from the 2012 long rains season, a surplus of about 4.8 bags will be available for release into the deficit areas and National Cereals and Produce Board.

39 3.4.6.2 Livestock production Livestock production contributes 60-70 percent to household cash income, mainly from sell of milk and live birds. 84 % of the farmers derive their livelihoods from the sale of livestock products and live animals. The main livestock species in the cluster are dairy cattle, poultry, sheep and goats. However in Narok beef, sheep and goats enterprises are predominant.

The forage types in the cluster are natural pasture, napier grass, improved pastures, legumes, crop residues and fodder trees. Figure 20 depicts proportion of various livestock feeds. The current forage condition is good. Crop residues mainly maize stovers are used to supplement livestock feeds in the cluster. The amount of pasture was adequate. The productions trends indicate an increase compared to last year due to high rainfall and increase in land under fodders. Figure 20: Fodder and Pasture in South Rift

The level of utilization of concentrates is low due to the high costs and availability of on farm feeds as shown in table below;

Body condition of various livestock types was good. Average livestock holding were 4 dairy cows, 5 sheep and goats, and 10 local hens. Milk Production range /household is 10-15 litres/day while the available Milk for household consumption is approximately 3 litres/household. Price of Milk is on average Kshs 25 /litre. The main challenge in livestock production is low prices of products especially milk, pest and diseases and high input costs.

3.4.6.3 Fisheries production Fisheries production in cluster is on two fronts, Figure 22: Trends in Commercial feed Prices aquaculture and capture fisheries that takes place on Lake Naivasha.

Aquaculture Under aquaculture, the cluster has 3,982 farmers. The pond area is 876,816 square meters and this was stocked with 2,636,457 fingerlings of Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus).The fingerlings were sourced from outside the region, mainly Siaya and Mwea. Cumulatively, 42 metric tons of fish have been harvested and sold, earning the farmers over 30 million shillings

Capture fisheries: Total fish production from Lake Naivasha in 2011 was 288,076 kilograms valued at 18,118,821 shillings. This represented a 37.78 percent increase from the previous year’s recordings of 209,084.5 kilograms valued at 13,052,911 shillings. Common carp (Cyprinus carpio) remained

40 the biggest contributor to the catch size (about 95 percent). Other species have been on the decline, with the mirror carp contributing only 5 percent as shown by the figure below.

O. Production of fish from Lake Naivasha Leucostictutus 0% Tilapia Zilli M.salmoides 0% 0%

Cyprinus carpio 100% Figure 32: Fish production from Lake Naivasha, 2012

3.4.6.4 Marketing and trade The main markets in the cluster are Nakuru, Njoro, Mulot, Sigor, Kericho and Narok. During the period, the markets operated normally. Maize and beans price trends The volumes of traded food staples 7000 were higher compared to the previous 6000 5000 months because farmers had just Maize 2011 4000 harvested maize, beans and wheat. Maize 2012 3000 Beans 2011 Kg bag Kg The prices of maize increased 2000 Beans 2012 averagely in the cluster except in 1000 Nakuru where it dropped from an

0 Jul

Maize and beans prices per 90m 90m per prices beans and Maize average of Kshs 2800 to Kshs 2000.

Jan

Jun

Oct

Apr

Feb Sep

Dec

Aug

Nov

Mar May Figure 23: Maize and Beans price trend in South Rift Bomet County had the highest price of Kshs 4000 because it suffered the deadly maize lethal disease during the long rains season. A bag of maize sold for Kshs 2000- 4000 in the cluster. The lowest price was in Nakuru while the highest was in Bomet. Currently the prices are dropping (see figure 23) because of the local harvest period however, the prices are expected to start increasing as from the month of January.

Milk prices are currently higher than the 2011 prices as well as the long term average of KSHS 16 per litre. A litre of milk is currently selling for about Kshs 25-30 compared to Kshs 22-27 in the same period in 2011. The increase in milk prices is driven by the high costs of inputs and transport however, milk are expected to remain the same over the next six months. Milk is currently, the main source of income to the cluster.

3.4.7 Food Security Prognosis The overall food security status in the cluster is stable, and will remain so until the next season as the cluster has adequate food stocks. However in Narok County, most farmers do not have

41 storage structures hence they immediately dispose off their produce after harvesting. The price of maize currently has declined in comparison to last year, but this will soon change when most households dispose off the maize to meet other non-food requirement like paying of fees in January. The prices are likely to increase in February onwards. In Bomet County, the Maize Lethal Necrotic Disease is expected to continue affecting maize production in the coming season. The county is therefore expected to continue relying on supplies from outside thus exposing many vulnerable households to external market dynamics.

3.5 Central Cluster

3.5.1 Background Information Central cluster (Central Province) is located between latitude 010 19’South and 010 13’ North and longitude 360 30' and 300 11' East. It covers an area of approximately 13,163.7 Km2 in size and has a population of 4,383,743 persons (2,152,983 male, 2,230,760 female) in 1,224,742 households (KNBS, 2009), with a population density of 333 persons per sq. km. The cluster comprises of 5 counties; Nyandarua, Kiambu, Kirinyaga, Nyeri and Muranga counties and has 37 administration districts. The cluster ranges an altitude of 1070-3000m asl. The main livelihood is mixed farming which is Figure 24: Central cluster map practiced by about 80 percent of the population. Other forms of livelihoods are marginal mixed farming, irrigation and formal/informal and business.

3.5.2 Factors affecting food situation The main factors affecting food situation in the cluster currently are abnormally high food and input prices. There were areas that were affected by frost bite in the cluster. The price of farm inputs, livestock drugs and feeds have increased for instance the price of dairy feeds is 40% higher than normal. Fisheries inputs prices are equally high and supply of fingerlings continues to be a major challenge for new fish farmers. The sector also faces shortages of fingerings. In the Aberdares and Nyandarua human wildlife conflict has been reported to impact negatively on food production as the crops and pastures are trampled upon by the wildlife. This year few areas had the Maize disease and though the area was not significant, there is a fear that this may become a bigger issue in the long rains of 2013.

43 3.5.3 Food production trends Food production is generally declining in this cluster as result of the high costs of production for various commodities. Majority of the districts are falling out of conventional food production and trying new ventures. However, the new areas that have been tried include, flower production, green house agriculture for horticulture. The cost of these investments is however not within the means of most small scale farmers. The trend of food production for cereals compared to 2011 has been declining for instance the total maize production in the year 2010 was 1,763,076 bags while in the year 2011 it produced 1, 755,068 bags and in 2012 the maize production stood at less than 1.4 million bags. Milk production has in the contrary increased but most of the income from milk is used to offset major cash requirements.

3.5.4 Overall food situation The food security situation is currently stable, the maize requirement for cluster for the next six months is guaranteed. The deficit for the next six months is however likely to be insignificant due to presence of other alternative food sources. The anticipated maize production from the short rains and produce from milk, horticulture, tea and coffee is expected to bridge the small gap. Farmers in the lower marginal parts of the cluster are dependent on short rains.

3.5.5 Shocks and Hazards

3.5.5.1 Rainfall performance Compared to long term average, the onset of the 2012 long rains was late in most parts of Central as the rains were received in the second week of April compared to LTA 3rd week of March. In terms of total amounts, 2012 long rain amounts increased by 120 to 140 percent compared to LTA as shown in Figure 25.

Similarly, spatial distribution was good as most areas in the region received rains. However, in terms of temporal distribution, long rains in Central Province were mainly received within a span of 5 dekads (from Second week of April to 3rd week of May).

Figure 25: Rainfall performance in central Kenya 2012

3.5.5.2 Rainfall related shocks i) Flash floods: reported in Kiambu, Kirinyaga and Muranga’; about 400 Ha of assorted crops (Pulses, Irish potato, Kales, Cabbages, and Carrots) were destroyed with about 310 people affected. ii) Landslides: was mainly reported in Kiambu. About 2 acres of crop was destroyed. ii) Frostbite: Mainly reported in Kiambu and Kirinyaga. About 350 ha of various crops, especially tea, was destroyed. iv) Hailstones: mainly reported in Kiambu and Nyeri. About 500 Ha of various crops was affected. Other shocks

44 Maize Lethal Necrotic Disease The disease was reported in Mathioya and Kieni Districts. About 169 Ha was affected with lose ranging from 10 to 35 percent. Estimated 280 farmers were affected.

3.5.6 IMPACTS OF SHOCKS AND HAZARDS

3.5.6.1 Crop Production The cluster has diverse agro-ecological zones wand therefore has potential for production of major crops. Figure 26: Major crops in Central Over 60% of households rely on farm income and off- farm wage employment as main sources for household income. The major staple food crops include Maize, beans and Irish potatoes. Key cash crops are tea, coffee, pyrethrum and wheat while Main horticultural crops include Irish potatoes, cabbage, kales, tomatoes and a variety of both temperate and tropical fruits. The area under maize production increased marginally by 1percent from 105,154 Ha in 2011 to 106,409 Ha in 2012 while the production increased by 23 percent. The good yields were realized due to improved management. Area under Irish potato increased by 14 percent while the production increased by 88 percent. Table 18: Maize, Beans and Irish potato production 2011 and 2012 Crop 2012 2011 Area under LR Production(Bags) Area Production crops(Ha) Planted(Ha) (Bags) Maize 106,409 1,269,030 105,154 1,561,311 Beans 61,037 323,458 61,923 436,380 Irish potatoes 50,359 1,076,994 44,215.0 2,024,202.9

Farm income forms the bulk of household income accounting for over 80% of total income received. Erratic rains, low temperatures and frost significantly reduced the amount of food crops harvested after the long rains, 2012 especially in Nyandarua central, Kieni west and East where Irish potatoes production declined by 59%,. Beans production is severely curtailed by the low temperatures and prolonged wet seasons. Overall, the production was higher compared to 2011 long rains. Maize and beans stocks The current food stock stands at about 1,022,539 million bags of maize and 452,918 million bags of beans (see table …). The maize stocks are adequate for majority of the households for about 4 months; however, about 60% of the households are relying on maize as income and hence end up selling to solve other domestic financial obligations such as school fees and health. Table19: Maize and Beans stocks Crop Farmers Stocks Traders Stocks Millers Stocks NCPB Stocks Total Maize 497,543 250,299 32,523 226,722 1,022,539 Beans 271,884 181,034 - - 452,918

Food requirements

45 Food situation in most parts is stable .Over 50 percent of the maize is sold green in urban areas which fetches better income compared to dry maize. Many of the farmers rely on the market for maize and beans as they deplete their food stocks within a month of harvesting. Central cluster expects to harvest about 1,269,030 bags of maize from the long crop. At a consumption of about 487,082 bags per month, the region requires about 2,922,495 bags in the next six months (Table 20). The harvest is expected to last the cluster 4 Months. Table 20: Maize requirements Crop Population Consumption Stocks and Maize requirements Deficit per month expected short for the next 6 (Bags)) (Bags) rains months(Bags) harvest(Bags) Maize 4,383,743 487,082 1,022,539 2,922,495 (1,899,956)

Post harvest Management Farmers in the region store maize in polythene bags in their houses. Most of the surplus harvested is immediately sold to traders within and outside the county to meet immediate income needs. Irish potatoes are harvested and transported directly to the market due to perishability. Farmers have not yet embraced the 110 kg bag and hence exploitation.

3.5.6.2 Livestock Sector Livestock production in the Central cluster of Kenya is predominantly small holder dairy farming. It is characterised by small land holdings (sizes 1-3 acres) with farmers keeping 1 to 3 cows. Dairy goat keeping has also emerged as a popular enterprise with an organised farmers association (Dairy goat association of Kenya).There are a few Zebu as compared to the dairy cattle mostly in the lower parts of the region. In the year 2011, the region produced a total of 829,317,912 litres of milk worth 21 billion Kenya shillings. The average price per litre paid to farmers Figure 27: Livestock Population (Source PDLP Central is Kshs 25 per litre. The livestock population is Annual Report, 2011) shown in Figure 27.

Poultry is the second most preferred enterprise after dairy. Majority of the farmers keep indigenous birds, layers and broilers in order of importance. Farmers near the urban areas rear layers and broilers while those in rural areas keep indigenous birds .Poultry Farmers earned Kshs 3.2Billion from eggs and Kshs 830 Million from Meat bringing the total to Kshs 4.0 Billion from the enterprise. This indicates a percentage increase of11% over the Kshs 3.6 Billion earnings in 2010.The pig enterprise is third in economic importance..During the year 2011 about 52,000 pigs worth Kshs623 Million were slaughtered. Rabbit production is gaining popularity but is limited by availability of breeding stock. Bee keeping is mostly in the lower parts of the region. There are about 50-200 hives in the central cluster. In the year 2011 hive products worth Kshs223Million were produced. Generally the livestock body condition is good.

Fodder / Pastures Production and Trends Natural pasture is predominant in the region followed by improved pastures and then napier grass. The cluster has a sizeable number of fodder shrubs and legumes used to feed dairy animals.The acreage under livestock feeds has been increasing over the last three years. Figure 2 shows the trend in pasture and fodder development in the cluster. The main challenges to livestock production in this cluster include high cost of dairy inputs and equipments, insufficient cooling facilities, Figure 48: Trends in fodder and pasture development unaffordable credit and poor quality animal feeds. (PDLP Central Annual Report)

3.5.6.3 Fisheries There are two distinct physical features/landforms; the Aberdares Ranges and Mt.Kenya which generally influence the weather and climatic conditions experienced in this region. Most of the water sources like rivers, streams and rivulets emanate from the two land forms. Fisheries activities in this region are dominated by aquaculture, where farmers practice fish farming mainly under semi-intensive levels of management. The species cultured here include the warm water fish such as Tilapia and Catfish. In addition, a few farmers practice cold water aquaculture of the rainbow trout in an intensive scale for commercial purposes. Under the government funded Economic Stimulus Programme aquaculture programme, 300 fish ponds in every constituency, with a standard surface area of 300m2 have been constructed since the Year, 2009. There are currently 9626 fish ponds in this region covering an area of 1,486,299 m2.The aim of the programme was to ensure sustainable fish production to contribute to food security, create wealth and reduce poverty.

Fish production by weight (Kgs) per county

2702.3

37265

5355 Kiambu Murang'a 23685 111306 Kirinyaga Nyeri Nyandarua

Figure 29: Fish production per central

47 In the year 2011, an approximated 172703.8 kilograms were harvested by farmers, valued at Kshss.10015693 as shown in Figure 29. A total of 3,569,000 fingerlings, mainly Tilapia and Catfish fingerlings worth Kshs. 88,136,000 were stocked in both old and new ponds. There has been a general increase in the number of ponds in this region since the year 2008, as shown in Figure 30.

Number of ponds since 2008 3000

2500

2000 2008

2009 1500 2010 1000

2011 Number of ponds of Number 500

0 Kiambu Murang'a Kirinyaga Nyeri Nyandarua Figure 30: Number of fish ponds per county since 2008

Inputs in aquaculture sector include the fingerlings, fish feeds, manure (both organic and inorganic), liners and fishing gears. Most of Tilapia fingerlings (75%) stocked was sourced from within the region at a price of Kshss.7 per piece, which is normal price. In addition 100 percent of all the Catfish fingerlings were sourced from within the region at a cost of Kshss.7. About 85 percent of the fish feed used in ponds was sourced from outside the region, at a normal cost of Kshss.85 per Kilogram. The fertilizers were available within the region; urea was purchased at Kshss. 50 per Kilogram and DAP at Kshss.70 per Kilogram. In addition 85 percent of all the PVC ultra violet treated, 0.5mm pond liners were sourced from outside the region at a cost of Kshss.200 per meter square, whereas a 75 percent of all fishing gears were available in the region. The prices of fishing nets varied between Kshs. 400 to Kshs. 900 per meter depending on quality. Capture fisheries involves the exploitation of fish in natural water bodies such as rivers, dams and lakes. A total of 337 Kilogrammes of Tilapia species has been recorded as fish catches from these natural water bodies. However, capture fisheries remains largely unexploited.

3.5.6.4 Market and Trade The main food commodity markets in the cluster are; Thika town, Nyandarua, Nyeri, Kiambu, Githurai, Karatina and Kinale. There were no market disruptions in the cluster during the period. Maize, Beans and Irish potatoes are the main food commodities sold in these markets.

As illustrated in figure 31 commodity food prices have marginally increased in 2012

Figure 31: Comparative commodity prices 2011 and 2012 compared to 2011. The price per bag of dry maize increased by about 10 percent compared to the same period last year. Currently a bag is sold for Kshs 3150 compared to last year when it was sold for between Kshs 2800 per bag. The increase is attributed to the increased production costs of maize. Similarly, the price per bag of beans rose marginally by about two percent compared to same time last year. Currently a bag is selling for about Kshs 5400 compared to last year when a similar bag sold for Kshs 5200-5100. The increase in beans prices is attributed to reduced production occasioned by losses wetness during harvesting period.

The price per bag of Irish potatoes increased by about 10 percent compared to the previous year. Currently a bag is sold for Kshs 2900-3400 compared to last year when it sold for Kshs 2900- 3200. Potatoes suffered leaf blight disease which lowered production and hence reduced supplies to the markets.

30 28 Milk sold for Kshs 20-27 per litre 26 which is 8-13 percent above the 24 previous year price. Milk bulkers 22 20 2012 paid Kshs 22 per litre to the 18 2011 producer wile the local market paid 16 2010 14 upto Kshs 27. Milk production in the 12 cluster is rising due to the increased 10 demand and collection centres by processors. The price of milk in Figure 32: Milk price comparison 2010-2012 2012 is generally above the 2011 and 2010 prices, as illustrated in Figure 32 and may be attributed to increased feed prices and transport. A kilogram of tilapia fish sold for between Kshs 500-750. Fish consumption is increasing in the cluster and it is pushing up fish prices.

3.5.7 Challenges The main challenges facing food security are high cost of farm inputs, fluctuation in commodity prices, poor post-harvest handling and storage of produce leading to high post harvest losses, diseases incidences (head smuts), storage pests e.g. weevils and large grain borer), lack of certified seed especially for Irish potatoes and late delivery of the subsidized fertilizer while fertilizers accessed from local stockists were expensive which led to use of low application rates. Heavy rains also affected production of beans in districts such as Nandi Central where rotting of beans in the field was reported. Livestock production faced several challenges which included high cost of livestock inputs making farmers process their own feeds, Inadequate AI services leading to inbreeding, poor quality feeds, Livestock nutritional disorders and poor feeding which caused poor conception rate and Lack of organized markets for honey & beeswax and wool from sheep. In fisheries, the major challenges included high cost of quality fingerlings, poor marketing channels, high cost of fish feeds, Piracy and fish predation and lack of cold storage facilities for fish harvested.

49 3.5.8 Prognosis The food situation in the cluster is stable. In areas where there are little stocks of maize at household level, income generated through sales of other farm produce is able to sustain them. Food commodities are available in the market and are affordable in most households. Most of the ponds which were stocked with Tilapia species will be attaining market size in the next six months. These will most likely increase the fish production by the fish farmers thus boost the food situation in terms of food and income.

50 4.0 Recommendations

Following the assessment the following recommendations were made:

Table 21: recommendation by Sub-sector Subsector Recommendation Agriculture 1. Increase amounts of subsidized fertilizer(should be timely) and supply decentralized to more areas 2. Timely availability of seeds(Kenya Seed Co. Should increase production of required seeds e.g.6 series and supply on time 3. Establish maize drying facilities in major maize producing areas 4. Urgent measures to control escalating fuel prices to reduce cost of farm operations 5. Upscale food security initiatives such as NAAIAP(supply of inputs should be timely) and extend subsidies to other major inputs such as seeds Livestock 1. Increase processing of long life (UHT) and powder. 2. Availing coolers in the milk baskets to save the 15% of the milk that is lost 3. Increase use of intensive pasture production technology/innovation and reduce natural pasture 4. Progressive tax waiver on animal feed ingredients and drugs 5. Fodder conservation/processing technology to be intensified. 6. Adopt innovativeness in production 7. Establish routine livestock subsector surveys to obtain real time data. 8. Establish a data base 9. Fast track Animal Feeds bill on quality feeds 10. Promotion of sexed semen 11. Document innovations and technologies Fisheries 1. Introduction of subsidies on inputs particularly for high fish feeds and authenticated quality fingerlings; 2. Enhance production of fingerlings; 3. Improve on staffing; 4. Capacity building of fish farmers; 5. Provide cold storage facilities for harvested fish; 6. Provision of fish market facilities at Municipal markets; 7. Encourage commercial fish farming as opposed to the current subsistence farming. 8. E7