Money, Deregulation and the Business Cycle

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Money, Deregulation and the Business Cycle No. 8601 MONEY, DEREGULATION AND THE BUSINESS CYCLE by Gerald P. O'Driscoll, Jr.* Research Department Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas January 1986 Research Paper Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas This publication was digitized and made available by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas' Historical Library ([email protected]) t{o. 8601 }IONEY,DEREGULATIOI{ AI{DIHE BUSI}IESSCYCTE by Gerald P. 0'Driscoll, Jr.* ResearchDepartnent Federal ReserveBank of Dallas January 1986 * Paper pnepanedfor the cato Institute conferenceon lloney, Politics' and the Bulini:ssCycle, tlashington,D.C., January1986. The views expressed'positionsar€ those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the of the Federal ReserveBank of Dallas or the Federal Reserve System. In this paper, I examjnea burgeon'ingliterature on the behavior of unregulatedbanking systems. Its analysis of bankingand moneyhas been dubbedthe legal restrictions theory. lt4anyof the theory's conclusionsare startling, as, for example,the proposition that it is unnecessaryto control the quantjty of depository liabilities in a competitivebanking system. Sjmilarly, the theoryrs modeof analysis is unconventional;for example,its benchmarkfor examiningthe nature of bankingservices is a nonmonetaryeconomy. It is precisely its unconventionalanalysis and startling conclusions,however, which makethe 1ega1restrictions theory both stimulating and worth further cons'ideration. In what fol1ows, I fjrst explicate the newview on banking; I next consider implications of the newview fon controlling economjc fluctuations; I then present a critique and, finally, I suggesthow some of the vaiuable insights of the 1ega1restrjctions theory mjght be integrated with impol'tanttenets of moretraditional approachesto moneyand bank'ing.1 The Legal Restric!ions Theoryof Money The legal restrictions theory examinesthe seemingparadox that individuals simultaneouslyhold governmentcurrency and governmentbonds The currency is noninterest bearing, while governmentbonds bear interest. The paradoxicalaspect of this behavionderives from the fact that both obligations are default-free iiabilitjes of the sameissuen. Assuming rational behavior by transactors, we would expect the interest-bearing securities to dominatecurrency. Accordingly,Wallace (1983, p,1) L investjgates the features of interest-bearing governmentsecuritjes t,that prevent them from playing the samel"ole in transactions as Federal Reserve notes. For if they could play that ro1e, then it is hard to see \rhy anyone would hold non-jnterest-bearingcurrency instead of the interest-bearing securities.'r The newview identifies 1egal restrictions as the sourceof the sjmultaneousdemand for both currencyand bondsand contrasts the current environmentwith an unregulatedor rrlaissez-faire system.'r lr/allace (1983, p. 4) states the view forceful ly and conciseiy. ...Laissez-fajre meansthe absenceof 1ega1 restrictions that tend, amongother things, to enhancethe demandfor a governmentrscurrency, Thus, the impositjon of laissez-faire would almost certainly reducethe demandfor government currency. It could even reduce it to zero. A zero demandfor a governmentrscur"rency should be interpreted as the abandonmentof one monetary unit in favor of another -- for example.the abandonmentof lhe dollar in favor of one ounceof go1d. Thus, my prediction of the effects of imposinglaissez-fajre takes the form of an either/or statement:either nominalinterest rates go Lo zero or existing governmentcurrency becomes worthI ess. Wallace (1983, p. 1) identifies two conditions, the presenceof one of which is necessaryin order that governmentbonds not be substitutable fo" .u""ency.2 Either the bondmust be nonnegotjable(as is tnue of U.S. savingsbonds) or not issued in small denomjnatjons(as is true of Treasurybi 11 s) . As WalI ace ( 1983, pp. 2-3) further observes, neither of these two restrjctions by themse'lvescould prevent arbitrage by 3 fjnancial intermediarjes. Theseintermediaries could purchaselarge denomination,negotiable bonds (i.e., Treasurybilis in multiples of $10,000)and jssue bearer notes in smalI denominations. By matching maturities of these notes and those of the Treasurybills, the intermediarywould be perfectly hedged. Since its assets are default-free by assumption,its bearer notes would also be default-free (fraud aside). Wallacethus identifies a crucial leqal restriction that is sufficien! for the coexistenceof currencyand bonds: governmentis a monopolistjc provider of curre ncy. Absent 1ega1restrictions, arbitrage would drive downthe yield djfferential betweenbonds and currency to the costs of intermediating betweenthem. l/lallace(1983, pp. 3-4) estimatesthat these might be less than one percent. As an approximation,one could ignore the difference. Accordingly, Wallaceconcludes that either interest rates on bondsare driven to zero or currencydisappears. Anotherway of statjng the conclusion is that moneywould not exist as a distinct financial asset.3 Thjs restatementbrings into sharper rel ief the clear connectionbetlreen Wal lace's statementof the legal restrictions theory and Fischer Black's earlier analysis of howan unregulatedfinancial systemwould operate.4 Black assunesthat depository institutions havecomplete freedom to create ljabjlities and to purchase financial assets as they see fit.5 Banks' incomederives from the spread betweentheir borrowjngcosts -- chiefiy interest on deposit liabilities -- and their revenue-- chief1y interest on loans. Black envis'ionsthat loans wi'lI take the form of negative bank balances,or, in other words, + overdrafts on deposit accounts. Indeed, h'is description of the hypothetical systemof positjve and negative bankbalances r eads like a virtual foretel ling of the moderncash managementaccount at brokerage houses(B1ack [1970], pp. 10-11). B'lackpresents an evolutionarymodel of financial innovation, which beginswith a commoditymoney and ends in a money'lesswor1d. Early in the evolutionary process real goods, as well as the commoditymoney, becomepriced in lerms of an abstract unjt of account. Biack hypothesizes, however,that the meansof paymentwill likely be a portfol io of common stocks. He thereby invokes an assumptionthat characterizes subsequent presentatjonsof the newvjew: the separationof the meansof paymentand the unit of account. Black (1970, p. 9) is also responsiblefor first articulating another characteristjc proposition of the 1ega1restrictions theory: in a deregulatedfinancial environment,I'it would not be possib1eto give any neasonabledefinition of the quantity of money. The paymentsmechanism in such a world would be very efficient, but moneyin the usual sensewould not exist.rr" In other words, havingmerged money and other financial assets, Black cannot readily quantify the formenseparately. Wallace(1983, p.a) takes a different tack and anaiyzes open-marketpurchases and sales of TreasurybiIls by a central bank in a laissez faire regime. He assumesthat there is a constant-costtechnoiogy for producingcurrency, whjch is sharedby private and government intermediaries (a situation of rrtechnologicalsymmetry'r). In other words, g0vernmentand private notes are perfect subst'itutesproduced under 5 identical cost condjtions. In l;lallacers example,there i s a given private-sector demandfor currency. Thus, an expansionin the production of one type of curr"encyresults jn the contraction of other types. An open-marketpurchase of bills by the central banksconstitutes just such a change. As the central bank increasesits assets (Treasuryb'i lls), it will issue moreliabilities (including currency). Sjnce indjviduals nowhold central bank currency, they will curtai I their demandfor commercialbank currency. In the process, resourcesare reallocated from pl-ivate- to public-sector pnoducersof currency. Wa'llace (1983, pp. 4-5) concludes that: . UnderLai ssez-fa ire and technologi cal symmetry, the openmarket purchase does no morethan change the location from the private sector to the governmentof a given quant'ity of economic activity, the production of small-denomination notes. Nothingelse is affected, neither interest rates nor the price Ievel nor the Ievel of economicactjvity. ., A similar argumentapplies to ' openmarket, sa1es. In a laissez faire system,then, there are no macroeconomic effects of banks' issuing their ownI iabilities to purchasefinancial assets. Th'is conc'lusjon,which holds for central banksand private i ssuersal i ke, i s i n starl j ng contrast to conventional wisdom and constilutes the most importantpolicy conclusionof the 1ega1restrjctjons theory. The contention will be lhe focus of most of the rest of the DaDer. 0nce again, Black suggestshow a laissez faire bankingsystem might operate. The world js a far cry from a monetarist environment containing a well-defined transactjon money,h,hose Lota'l quantity js linked to an exogenousmonetary base by a stable moneymultiplier. In Black's wor'ld, debits and credits would be created and extinguishedwith every transactjon. In terms of Wallacersexample, under competitiVe conditions expansionby one intermediarywould comeat the expenseof contraction by others. Both analysesconclude that, in a lajssez faire system,the provision of paymentservices by bankswould have no special effects on prices or output (Cf. Fama[1980], pp. 45-47). Fconomjststraditionally modelbanks as creators of money. Certain liabilities of private banksare addedto those of central banks with the resulting magnitudeconstituting the moneystock. The money-creationfunction is the benchmarkfor analyzing banks; of
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