U.S.-Cuba Trade and Economic Council, Inc. New York, New York Telephone (917) 453-6726 • E-mail: [email protected] Internet: http://www.cubatrade.org • Twitter: @CubaCouncil Facebook: www.facebook.com/uscubatradeandeconomiccouncil LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/u-s--cuba-trade-and-economic-council-inc- The Real Deal New York, New York 12 November 2016 Will Trump reverse thawing US business relations with Cuba? U.S. companies interested in Cuba have until Jan. 20 to seek regulatory changes and individual licenses By Doreen Hemlock The Four Points by Sheraton in Havana and Donald Trump UPDATED Nov. 12, 10:40 a.m.: President Barack Obama’s two-year push to thaw relations with Cuba has spurred interest in U.S. real estate deals on the island and even the launch of a Four Points by Sheraton hotel in Havana this June. But Tuesday’s victory by President-elect Donald Trump could throw a chill on budding ties with the communist-led nation, analysts warn. During the campaign, Trump pledged to reverse Obama’s executive orders that warmed relations unless Cuba agrees to “restore” political freedoms on the island – a move considered unlikely by Raul Castro’s administration. Yet many executives active in U.S.-Cuba business see room for a President Trump to moderate his stance for two key reasons: The billionaire real estate developer had earlier backed détente with the island, and closer ties help U.S. business and jobs. What’s more, those Cuban-American hardliners pushing to reverse Obama’s thaw did not bring out the Cuban-American electorate for Trump in Florida. Hillary Clinton won much of that vote. “There is strong, and growing, support across the American public and the American business community to strengthen relations with Cuba,” James Williams, president of nonprofit Engage Cuba, said in a statement. “We remain hopeful that Mr. Trump, who has previously supported engagement with Cuba as a businessman and a politician, will continue to normalize relations that will benefit both the American and Cuban people.” Many U.S. companies with new business in Cuba want to defend their stake. Hotel giant Marriott, whose Sheraton brand already runs one Havana hotel and which has approvals to manage two more, now sees “protecting our ability to do business in Cuba” among “our policy priorities,” said spokesman Jeff Flaherty in an email. “Given our roots in the Washington, D.C. region, Marriott has a long history of engaging with policymakers from both political parties, and we’ll continue that important dialogue.” Obama said he turned to executive action on Cuba because Congress would not act on a failed U.S. policy, including a nearly 60-year-old embargo aimed to spur regime change on the island. His action allowed U.S. airlines and cruise lines to start their first commercial service to Cuba in half-a-century, creating business this year for American, Delta, Southwest, JetBlue and Carnival’s fathom line, among others. Obama’s push required the writing of detailed new regulations on business with Cuba from U.S. Treasury and Commerce departments. Rolling back those complex regulations won’t be simple, said corporate attorney Pedro Freyre, a veteran in Cuba business and chairman of the international practice at Akerman law firm in Miami. Plus, Trump will have other policy considerations to weigh on Cuba, including growing cooperation with Havana on drug-smuggling, oil spills and immigration. “It’s not black and white,” said Freyre, analyzing what Trump might do on Cuba. “You’re going to have in the White House a real estate developer,” he told The Real Deal. “I bet you dollars to doughnuts, he’s going to be thinking about that [business], because that’s who he is and what he does.” Trump’s real estate group reportedly scouted for business in Cuba in the 1990s, according to Newsweek and Bloomberg. While a full reversal of Cuba regulations seems “unlikely,” Trump may well “increase conditionality” on U.S.-Cuba business — at least until Feb. 2018, when Cuba’s Raul Castro has said he’ll step down, said John Kavulich, president of the U.S.-Cuba Trade and Economic Council. The Cuban government could be “defiant” toward Trump’s conditions, Kavulich said. Indeed, Cuba announced Wednesday that its five days of military exercises scheduled on the island will prepare “for a range of enemy actions.” That leaves U.S. companies interested in Cuba a tight window until Trump takes office Jan. 20 to “seek as many regulatory changes and as many individual licenses as possible” from the Obama administration, said Kavulich. He would like to see new regulations allow all transactions with Cuban government companies and all trade under general license, rather than specific licenses for each activity. Because of the embargo, U.S. companies can’t own real estate in Cuba. Some now rent space on the island for their businesses. Lifting the embargo so far has proved impossible. Yet Engage Cuba’s Williams said his group and allies will keep pushing to end the Cold War policy, heartened by this week’s election of “even more pro-engagement Republican and Democratic members of Congress.” Delta Farm Press Overland Park, Kanas 11 November 2016 Farm groups ponder what election will mean on Cuba, other issues by Forrest Laws in Farm Press Blog Will one analyst’s prediction the “legislative pathway for Cuba died at 3 a.m.” when Mr. Trump declared victory Nov. 9 come true? Or were the statements disparaging new relations with Cuba campaign rhetoric? It might be easy to get caught up in the euphoria most farmers must feel over Donald Trump’s election win. Surveys showed 80 to 90 percent supported Mr. Trump in the months leading up to Nov. 8. But there are some storm clouds rising as the president-elect begins to select cabinet members and implement the many promises he made during what most agree was a campaign that was too long by half. Of major interest to farmers in the South will be the Trump administration’s Cuba policy. Will one analyst’s prediction the “legislative pathway for Cuba died at 3 a.m.” when Mr. Trump declared victory Nov. 9 come true? Or were the statements disparaging new relations with Cuba campaign rhetoric? “The Trump administration will increase conditionality upon the United States-Republic of Cuba relationship, specifically relating to commercial engagement,” said John Kavulich, president of the U.S.- Cuba Trade and Economic Council. “Its focus will be on Feb. 24, 2018, when President Raul Castro retires and ‘Post-Castro Cuba’ begins." Noting the new president has changed position on Cuba several times, Kavulich said "His most recent statements indicate he may not immediately reverse commercial, economic and political engagement, but may increase conditionality as a cost of expansion." Then there’s the Trans-Pacific Partnership, which farm organizations have been scrambling to get Congress to pass during its lame-duck session. The day before the election American Farm Bureau President Zippy Duvall urged farmers to contact their representatives and demand a vote on TPP. Farm Bureau economists estimate the agreement could put $4.4 billion in farmers’ pockets if was approved by Congress and signed by the president. That's more than the Agricultural Risk Coverage or Price Loss Coverage programs will provide for the 2015 crops. The third – the future of the Environmental Protection Agency – might seem to be of marginal concern for farmers. But, as representatives of CropLife America, the organization that represents pesticide manufacturers, have said, U.S. agriculture needs an effective EPA to assure the public its food supply is safe. To express its anger over EPA’s Clean Water Act or Waters of the U.S. regulations, Congress cut the agency’s funding so that its Office of Pesticide Program now has half the employees it had. The result: registration of new pesticides now takes three to four times as long. EPA was created during the Nixon years because that administration realized the need for a legitimate food safety regulatory process. If you think the environmental activists are difficult to deal with now just think about what will happen if President Trump tries to dismantle EPA. Miami Herald Miami, Florida 10 November 2016 Cloud of uncertainty hangs over U.S.-Cuba relations with a Trump presidency Tourists listen to a tour guide near an anti-aircraft missile on exhibit at the Revolution Museum, in Havana, Cuba. Photo/Ramon Espinosa) Ramon Espinosa AP Nora Gámez Torres Donald Trump's election as the next president of the United States has cast a shadow over the Obama administration policy of warming relations with Cuba. While Cuban leader Raúl Castro issued a short congratulatory message on Trump’s victory, the official Granma newspaper on Wednesday also announced five days of upcoming military preparedness exercises, a signal that the island is getting ready for a “hostile” U.S. administration. Those exercises began during the Reagan administration in 1980 but had not been held for the last three years. A reporter on a Havana TV news program noted that Cuba has had “similar” experiences and maintains its “will to resist the big neighbor to the North.” President Barack Obama's legacy on Cuba could well be affected by whatever happens after Trump moves into the White House. Obama announced dramatic changes in U.S. policy toward Havana starting in December of 2014. Saying he wanted to end the last vestige of the Cold War, he decided to reestablish diplomatic relations, broken more than 50 years ago, and eased economic sanctions on the island. U.S. residents can now travel to Cuba more easily, commercial flights have been restored and many companies are looking over the Cuban market, although the island's government has been unwilling to give them more access so far.