Equity Research MAY 2006 Investment Strategy Approaching an Inflection Point in the Bubble Cycle THERE ARE A NUMBER OF COMMON MISCONCEPTIONS REGARDING ASSET BUBBLES. Bubbles are serial in nature and are often broad events. Contrary to popular belief, neither the bond market nor energy stocks is currently experiencing a bubble episode. Yet, in our opinion, one market that is in a bubble is real estate! THE UNWINDING OF THE REAL ESTATE BUBBLE COULD BROADLY IMPACT FINANCIAL MARKETS FOR YEARS TO COME. The speed with which the housing bubble deflates will have important implications for household spending and could determine how quickly and strongly the Fed increases liquidity again. THE END OF ONE BUBBLE OFTEN TRIGGERS THE BEGINNING OF ANOTHER. A bubble-induced economic slowdown oftentimes leads the Fed to once again inject liquidity into the economy. This phenomenon typically acts as a trigger that paves the way for the beginning of a new asset bubble. AREAS WORTH CONSIDERING AS POTENTIAL FUTURE OPPORTUNITIES ARE ALTERNATIVE FUELS, NANOTECH, AND HEALTH CARE. These are just a few potential areas that could see continued interest generated. While any of these could end up as a disappointment, a significant technological breakthrough at a time when the bubble environment is fertile could be quite profitable. Research Analysts François Trahan Kurt D. Walters Caroline S. Portny (212) 272-2103 (212) 272-2498 (212) 272-5236
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