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Out of Control Commercial Leasing Reaches New Heights in 2006

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Out of Control Commercial Leasing Reaches New Heights in 2006 A N E W Y O R K LA W J O U R N AL S P E CI AL SE C T ION REAL ESTATE Board of New York Web address: http://www.nylj.com TU E S D AY, J an U ary 1 6 , 2 0 0 7 Out Of Control Commercial leasing reaches new heights in 2006. BY BRADLEY A. KAUFMAN activity by sector, as in past articles, analyzing HE YEAR 2006 was a great time the Midtown and Downtown office markets as to be an owner of commercial real well as retail leasing transactions throughout the estate in New York City! Owners, as city, again interjecting commentary from well- landlords, saw rental rates, both asking known and well-regarded non-legal real estate TT professionals. I will include in this article the and taking, escalate throughout the year at a record pace and to record rates. At the same prediction of what we can expect for 2007 based time, concession packages decreased significantly upon this review, noted trends and anticipated throughout the year, so that by the end of the year, transactions. the days of the 6 to 12 months of free rent and Josh Kuriloff, executive vice president of significant landlord contributions were long gone. Cushman & Wakefield, Inc., confirmed what a While landlord work letters still were the norm strong year 2006 was for owners of commercial throughout the year, though in ever-decreasing real estate in New York City. He notes that, “The sizes, many tenants found themselves with little or New York commercial real estate market took no free rent up front, thereby having to build out off in 2006 with record-setting rents driven by their spaces while at the same time paying rent. a combination of healthy employment growth While stories of back-up bidders lining up to take and a severe shortage of large blocks of space. spaces did not yet abound, certainly the market 2006 saw a record number of leases signed in likewise “tightened up” during the year. which the rent was over $100 per square foot. In What is in store for us in 2007? I will view leasing 2006 more leases were signed with a rent above $100 per square foot than in all previous years combined. “The most important trends of the year were the rapid decline in the amount of available office Bradley A. Kaufman is a member of the space in the Manhattan office market and the real estate group of Lowenstein Sandler, resident lack of significant new development to meet in the firm’s New York City office. He is the rising demand. In October 2006 there was 21.8 co-chairman of the New York State Bar Association, million square feet of office space available from Real Property Law Section, Committee on New York landlords, the smallest amount of space Commercial Leasing. available since the fourth quarter of 2001, just 7 World Trade Center NYLJ PHOTOS/RICK KOPSTEIN NEW York Law JOURNAL TUESday, JanUary 16, 2007 after ‘9/11.’ There is no relief in sight. There Another example is the sale of 350 Park robust 2006 marketplace. Managing and leasing are currently three new office buildings under Avenue to Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) agents reaped record profits as sales prices and construction in all of Manhattan, and they are Vornado Realty Trust. Further examples on an lease rental rates soared. Even increasing costs almost fully leased already. No new office space even larger scale are the reported sales of real and taxes added to such profits when managing will be completed in Manhattan for at least estate giant Trammell Crow Company to CB agents took out percentages of same in the form a year.” Richard Ellis Group, the largest commercial of fees under pass-along escalation clauses for REIT, Equity Office Properties Trust to operating expenses in those leases containing Success and Slowdown Blackstone Group and the potential sale of same. Of course, as rental rates continue to REIT Reckson Associates to REIT S.L. Green escalate, leasing brokers will continue to see Equity Office Properties Trust, the largest Realty Corporation. Then there was the $1 likewise escalating profits. This might be one commercial landlord in the United States, took billion plus sale of 5 Times Square by Boston motive for the rumored acquisition of, or an enormous gamble in 2005 when it purchased Properties to AVP Properties. And of course consolidation with, some of New York City’s what was anticipated to be a fully vacant building 2006 saw the sale of Stuyvesant Town and major real estate brokerage, management and once Verizon, the previous owner and largest Peter Cooper Village by the Metropolitan Life service firms. tenant, left 1095 Sixth Avenue. However, when law firm Dechert LLP took floors 25 through 31, The Return to Downtown totaling approximately 235,000 square feet and with Goodwin Procter reportedly showing interest The Downtown market had been much in a lease for approximately the same number of maligned since 9/11, and the tenant flow square feet just weeks thereafter, EOP was looking has been considerably more uptown than pretty good (see below)—particularly since the downtown during that period. However, 2006 rental rates, reportedly, came in significantly saw that trend changing and, by the end of the above what they had believed they could lease year, many tenants exploring their options do the space for. If other possible transactions close, in fact see the Downtown marketplace as a and depending on what happens with potentially viable alternative. the most significant deal in the building—it is Of particular note during the second half of reported that a 600,000-square-foot lease with 2006 was the return to lower Manhattan of law MetLife has been considered—the building firm Harris Beach, taking approximately 46,000 would be fully leased and, again, at rental rates square feet at 100 Wall Street, and Labaton significantly above what EOP had anticipated. Sucharow & Rodoff moving from 50,000 square This is just one of many stories of landlord feet at 100 Park Avenue to 70,000 square feet at successes in 2006. 140 Broadway. Readers may recall that Harris However, before anyone starts looking for Beach saw their offices destroyed in Tower 2 of $200-per-square-foot rental rates, one must note the World Trade Center on Sept. 11, 2001, and the slowdown in hedge fund leasing activity, lost people in the tragedy; so the firm’s decision originally the source, or one of the sources, of such to move Downtown was likely not an easy one significant increases in rental rates throughout and all the more meaningful. the city. While law firms and other service It is interesting to note that two of the largest entities have followed suit and chased rental leasing transactions during the first three quarters rates skyward, everyone seems to believe that of 2006 occurred Downtown—Moody’s 589,000- it is the hedge funds that originally drove the 140 Broadway square-foot lease at 7 World Trade Center—and prices up and, if they are to exit the marketplace, the New York City DOT’s 430,000-square-foot it would not be unfair to suggest that rental rates Insurance Company to Tishman Speyer and lease at 55 Water Street. might in fact start to soften. A number of hedge Black Rock Realty, for $5.4 billion, which Downtown landlords ended the year fund casualties have been reported recently and if is believed to be the highest price ever paid significantly upbeat about more tenants expanding this trend continues, obviously landlords will start for a piece of residential real estate. Finally, and/or relocating to Downtown office buildings to become nervous about losing at least a portion year end saw the sale of 666 Fifth Avenue which has and will further significantly lower of this significant player in the marketplace. by Tishman Speyer Properties to the Kushner vacancy rates. Of course, no one can predict Companies for a record $1.8 billion and a what the result will be of office space anticipated staggering $1,200 per square foot! to be added between the new Goldman Sachs Rental Rates and Building Value These record sale and recapitalization prices building and World Trade Center sites, once The significantly increased rental rates have have kept the REIT rally going strong on Wall construction is completed and those spaces translated into significantly greater values that Street throughout the 2006 year, as one might “come on line,” adding a very significant amount building owners have reaped through either expect. How long that rally can keep going is itself of new space to a previously reeling Downtown sale or refinancing. One developer taking the subject of much speculation, but if sales prices marketplace that has just begun steadying itself. advantage of this market was Macklowe and recapitalizations continue as the norm as a And, perhaps, most importantly is the question of Properties, including the reported potential result of increasing rental rates, one might expect what Merrill Lynch & Co. will do regarding the recapitalization of the GM building at a record the rally to continue for at least another year. approximately three million square feet of space it level and the sale of 340 Madison Avenue. Not only landlords gained significantly in the controls Downtown. NEW York Law JOURNAL TUESday, JanUary 16, 2007 of Midtown seems to have Conclusion settled down, while at the same time, big box retailers such as Mr. Kuriloff notes that, “Overall, real estate Home Depot, Target, Costco market conditions in Manhattan have rarely been and others lurk about hoping stronger.
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