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Retail Bank Strategy Global Deutsche Bank Markets Research Industry Date 8 September 2013 Retail Bank Strategy Global Financial Services Jason Napier, CFA David Lock Research Analyst Research Analyst (+44) 20 754-74433 (+44) 20 754-11521 [email protected] [email protected] F.I.T.T. for investors The Future of Banking Acceleration of change leads a big increase in bank IT spend With the press full of reports on innovation in money matters - think progress by Square, volumes in mobile payments at M-PESA, doubled revenue at Monetise, new bank launches like Metro, big data, digital wallets, mobile banking, crowdfunding, P2P lending - we think most investors see mostly downside risk from change. We look at each topic and conclude that a big increase in bank IT spend is coming which isn't captured in market expectations. But we also think this spend will deliver an ability to process higher volumes at lower unit costs, reduce branch costs and generate new revenue streams. We do not expect material bank disintermediation by tech. ________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Deutsche Bank AG/London Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MICA(P) 054/04/2013. Deutsche Bank Markets Research Global Industry Date 8 September 2013 Financial Services Retail Bank Strategy FITT Research Jason Napier, CFA David Lock Research Analyst Research Analyst The Future of Banking (+44) 20 754-74433 (+44) 20 754-11521 [email protected] [email protected] Acceleration of change leads a big increase in bank IT spend With the press full of reports on innovation in money matters - think progress by Square, volumes in mobile payments at M-PESA, doubled revenue at Monetise, new bank launches like Metro, big data, digital wallets, mobile banking, crowdfunding, P2P lending - we think most investors see mostly downside risk from change. We look at each topic and conclude that a big increase in bank IT spend is coming which isn't captured in market expectations. But we also think this spend will deliver an ability to process higher volumes at lower unit costs, reduce branch costs and generate new revenue streams. We do not expect material bank disintermediation by tech. Industry rate of change IS rising There’s no doubt that retail banking is seeing the start of material change. Mobile banking, for example, has average customers interacting over 20x a month, serving themselves more and creating upside from digital sales, efficiency gains, bank expansion into products like those offered by Groupon generating new revenue, supporting loyalty and (maybe) reducing churn. Re-tooling and IT investment will happen, nudged by regulatory pressure Most big banks need significant IT renewal. Old mainframe systems are the norm, patched for M&A, geographic & product expansion, and regulation, which introduces complexity and inefficiencies while volumes continue to rise. Unless expensed under restructuring charges this initially drives costs as much as 10% higher. Regulatory pressure will increase exponentially here given resolution planning and operational risk assessments, we think. A fundamental branch rethink to happen Digital banking has branch footfall down ~15% YoY. Combined with automation of cash dealings we expect new branches to be 25% smaller with 20% less staff, fewer tellers and more advisors. They’ll be cheaper to fit out, easier to move, faster to break-even, and make for better provision of advice. Outside of overbanked markets (e.g. Italy, Spain), we expect branch design not numbers will be the bigger change. With 50% of retail costs in branches and operations we think expenses here could fall ~5%. Customers and IT firms win… Out of this the customer does best, enjoying better ways to bank and spend. New banks, courtesy of low startup costs will generate profile, some churn, and motivation for incumbents to improve. As a thesis we think IT and data firms – at 15x - 30x EPS – do better out of bank IT change than the banks. …and banks get to keep being banks unless a killer app emerges However, we can’t envisage the emergence of a killer non-bank app that banks are unable to replicate which disintermediates the banking value chain materially. We expect bank IT renewal to increase costs initially but deliver platforms able process higher volumes at falling unit costs, meaning falling cost/income ratios as revenues grow (esp. when rates rise) and reduce customer incentives to churn, driven by better products and better delivery. We value banks using a combination of P/TNAV and P/E, benchmarked against peers. Key upside risks relate to economic growth and interest rates; downside risks relate to growth and regulation in particular. ________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Deutsche Bank AG/London Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MICA(P) 054/04/2013. 8 September 2013 Financial Services Retail Bank Strategy Table Of Contents Executive Summary ........................................................................ 4 This isn’t low-cost-airline-meets-flag-carrier situation ....................................................... 4 The Future of Retail Banking ........................................................ 11 Vanilla banking returns are good, should improve as costs are cut, more significantly when rates eventually rise ................................................................................................ 11 Every so often it's a good idea to look much further ahead ............................................ 13 The Rotten Core ............................................................................ 15 Key points ......................................................................................................................... 15 Banks mostly move and keep track of where the money is ............................................ 16 Rotten Core – Not all rotten, but generally pretty old ...................................................... 17 Significant implementation risk, little near term gain ...................................................... 18 A twist on the IT transition approach: The parallel bank ................................................. 21 Conventional competition from the Bank in a Box .......................................................... 22 We expect a significant increase in IT renewal activity ................................................... 25 Rise of the machines: Mobile & Tablet Banking .......................... 33 Technology is changing the way we manage our finances ............................................. 33 What the Heads of Digital at banks are thinking ............................................................. 37 Mobile Payments: Already in a phone near you ........................... 43 Overview ........................................................................................................................... 43 M-PESA - Mobile payments (not banking) at its most successful ................................... 43 What M-PESA says about the future of retail banking .................................................... 46 Moving to a less cash & cheque dominated world.......................................................... 48 Growth in digital wallets ............................................................... 52 Overview ........................................................................................................................... 52 Card model is moving towards a digital wallet, transaction focus.................................. 52 The key question: Is there a killer wallet out there? ........................................................ 55 Where to for branches? ................................................................ 60 Overview ........................................................................................................................... 60 Branches are the “face” of the bank, 50-60% of costs… ................................................ 61 Falling branch numbers are a structural trend ................................................................. 62 Branches to stay, but in tighter format as advice centres ............................................... 64 More outsourcing: The ATM case study .......................................................................... 66 There will be adjustment pains ........................................................................................ 67 Big Data: Unleash its commercial value ....................................... 71 How big is Big Data? ........................................................................................................ 71 Who knows more about your habits than your bank? .................................................... 71 Investors and customers haven’t
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