eVENT Hurricane Tracking Advisory

Post-tropical Storm Hermine Information from NHC Advisory 29, 11:00 AM AST Sun September 4, 2016 On the forecast track, the center of Hermine will meander slowly offshore of the mid- Atlantic coast for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained have increased to near 70 mph with higher gusts. Hermine is expected to be at or near hurricane strength during the next 48 hours.

Intensity Measures Position & Heading U.S. (NHC) Max Sustained 70 mph Position Relative to 295 miles SSE of the eastern tip of Speed: (tropical storm) Land: Long Island Est. Time & Region: n/a Min Central Pressure: 999 mb Coordinates: 37.2 N, 69.6 W

Trop. Storm Force Est. Max Sustained 205 miles Bearing/Speed: ENE or 60 degrees at 10 mph n/a Winds Extent: Wind Speed:

Forecast Summary ■ Tropical storm conditions will spread northward within the warning area along the Atlantic coast through Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area by Monday. ■ The combination of a storm surge and the will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. Along the immediate coastline, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. There is a danger of life-threatening inundation within the next 36 hours from Cape Charles, , to Sandy Hook, New Jersey. There is also the possibility of life-threatening inundation during the next 48 hours at many coastal locations between Sandy Hook, New Jersey, and Bridgeport, Connecticut, including Long Island. The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide: 1-2 feet near the sounds and northern Outer Banks; 2-4 feet from Cape Charles to Chincoteague, VA; 3-5 feet from Chincoteague, VA to Atlantic City, NJ; 2-4 feet from Atlantic City to Sandy Hook, NJ; 1-3 feet from Sandy Hook, NJ to Bridgeport, CT including Long Island. Large waves generated by Hermine will affect the U.S. east coast from the mid-Atlantic states and expand northward along the coast of southern through Monday. These waves are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, and significant beach erosion. ■ Heavy rainfall associated with Hermine will remain offshore through Monday/Labor Day. Hermine will produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches over southern New England from Long Island to eastern , and additional rainfall of one inch or less along the coastline of the mid-Atlantic states.

Forecast Track for Tropical Storm Hermine Forecast Wind-field for Tropical Storm Hermine (National Hurricane Center) (Based on NHC at 12:00 UTC from Kinetic Analysis Corp.)

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Coastal Watches and Warnings A Tropical Storm Warning – meaning that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within 36 hours - is in effect for Cape Charles Light to west of Watch Hill, and Delaware Bay. A Tropical Storm Watch – meaning that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area within 48 hours - is in effect for Watch Hill to Sagamore Beach, Block Island, Martha's Vineyard, and .

Summary of Atlantic Hurricane Activity to Date Benchmarking the 2016 Atlantic Season to Date 2016 Activity versus Average Activity for the years 1950 – 2011 Tropical Total Cat 3-5 12 Storms Hurricanes Hurricanes Tropical Storm avg '50‐'11 Tropical Storm 2016 8 4 1 Hurricane avg '50‐'11 Hurricane 2016 2016 year to date (1/1/16 – 09/04/16) Major Hurricane avg '50‐'11 Major Hurricane 2016

2015 year to date (1/1/15 – 09/04/15) 6 2 1 8 TS Hermine TS Gaston 1995-2011 season average 14.7 7.9 3.8 TS Fiona 1950-2011 season average 10.7 6.2 2.7 TS Earl TS Danielle 2016 CSU season forecasts 15 6 2 4 HU Hermine TS Colin HU Gaston (Colorado State University at Aug 4,‘16) TS Bonnie HU Earl 2016 NOAA season forecasts 12-17 5-8 2-4 M. Gaston (Aug 11, 2016) 0 May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Tropical Storm Activity to Date 2016 Tropical Storm Activity versus Average Activity Hermine is the eighth named storm and fourth hurricane of the The graph above shows 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season activity and 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Last year saw six named storms average occurrence rates since 1950 by date, category and order. It by September 4, one of which was major hurricane Danny. shows, for example, that Hermine became the season’s fourth hurricane on September 1. It also shows the average season has 10.7 tropical storms, 6.2 hurricanes and 2.7 major hurricanes (categories 3-5).

New Tropical Potential and Average Remaining Risk A tropical wave located just east of the Lesser Antilles is Average Risk Remaining in the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season producing a large area of cloudiness and showers and winds to Atlantic hurricane activity and major hurricane activity (categories 3-5) near tropical storm force. Upper-level winds are not expected both peak in September, as the graph below illustrates. The average to be conducive for significant development of this disturbance while it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph through the remaining percentage of days with Atlantic hurricane activity at Caribbean Sea this week. Regardless of whether or not September 4 is 65% for all hurricanes and 66% for major hurricanes. development occurs, this wave will produce locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds over portions of the Lesser Antilles through early Monday. Formation chances are 20% through 48 hours and 30% through 5 days. National Hurricane Center Formation Estimates on September 4, 2016 Percentage of Days with Active Hurricanes since 1900 60% 100%

48% 80%

36% 60%

24% 40%

12% 20% Average Daily Risk Daily Average Average RemainingRisk 0% 0% Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

All Hurricanes (1-5) Major Hurricanes (3-5) Contact us Roy Cloutier [email protected] +1 (952) 841-6652

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