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UT Tyler Releases Pre-Debate Poll Biden & Warren Gain More Support Among Democrats in Texas

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UT Tyler Releases Pre-Debate Poll Biden & Warren Gain More Support Among Democrats in Texas UT Tyler Releases Pre-Debate Poll Biden & Warren Gain More Support Among Democrats in Texas. Also, Clear Coalitions are forming in the Democratic Senate Race Released: Monday, November 18, 2019 Tyler, Texas – In the first post-Beto Texas statewide survey of the Democratic field, former Vice President Joe Biden holds a commanding lead with 28 percent support. His closest rivals are Senators Bernie Sanders (19%) and Elizabeth Warren (18%). 11 percent of Texas Democrats remain undecided. This survey gives an early look at the Democratic primary in Texas after 20 percent of the voters were without their leading candidate at the start of the month. Biden is ahead among key demographic groups within the Democratic party. Significantly, he leads among women (both white and African-American) by double-digits, older voters (e.g. 45-plus), and African-Americans. His popularity among black Democrats may be explained in part by their chief consideration for choosing a nominee: someone who will continue the agenda of Barack Obama. That said, Senator Sanders leads Biden by 20 percent among Latino Democrats and 27 percent among voters between the ages of 18 and 29 years. Tracking Momentum Across Recent UT Tyler Polls Candidate Change November September August July Biden + 2.1% 28.1% 26.0% 23.0% 24.4% Sanders + 1.6% 19.4 17.6 16.0 15.4 Warren + 6.7% 17.8 11.1 10.3 10.6 Buttigieg + 4.6% 7.8 3.2 3.9 1.5 Harris - 0.1% 5.3 5.4 5.3 8.5 Castro +0.1% 4.1 4.0 4.0 3.3 The percentages above indicate the change in candidate support among self-identified Democrats in each of the UT Tyler surveys that have occurred following previous candidate debates. These trends in candidate support also look similar if we include independents that lean towards the Democratic Party. The only exception with the more inclusive definition of the electorate in the March primary is that support for Senator Sanders fades and support for Senator Warren increases slightly. SENATE DEMORCRATIC PRIMARY: CLEAR COALITIONS FORMING The vast majority of Texas Democrats remain undecided on the U.S. senate primary. No candidate is winning double-digit support nor leading outside of the margin of error. Nonetheless, our results reveal stark racial contours among the supporters of the declared candidates. MJ Hegar (a white woman) is leading by 5 percent among white voters (followed by former U.S. Representative Chris Bell – a white man). Meanwhile, Texas state senator Royce West, a black man, is leading among black voters by 12 percent. Finally, Latina organizer and activist Cristina Ramirez is ahead with Latino Democrats by 19 percent. PRESIDENTIAL APPROVAL DURING THE IMPEACHMENT INQUIRY President Donald Trump’s job approval is up from our last survey in September. It now stands at 43 percent approval among all registered Texans. His disapproval stands at 49 percent with 8 percent not sure. When asked to consider what they currently know, whether President Trump should or should not be impeached, 45 percent support impeachment and 47 percent do not. 8 percent of respondents were not sure. Clearly, these results indicate an ambivalence among Texans on the question of impeachment. EARLY LOOK AT THE 2020 GENERAL ELECTION: FEWER UNDECIDEDS FOR EACH MATCH UP One year out from the 2020 election, President Trump is leading all Democrats in head to head contests. He beats Joe Biden (+5), Bernie Sanders (+4), and Elizabeth Warren (+11). Kamala Harris, Pete Buttigieg, and Julian Castro also trail Trump by double-digits. Interestingly, Trump’s surging support in head to heads since September appears to be coming from previously undecided respondents. POLICY ISSUES: INTEREST IN MANDATORY BUYBACK OF GUNS FADES On gun issues, a plurality of Texans (42%) now disapprove of a mandatory buyback program to turn in all assault weapons for payment (37% approve). This is a significant shift from our September survey, which found a near majority approval for such a program. Our November results indicate that both Republicans and Independents have changed their minds. For instance, 33 percent of Texas Republicans approved of a mandatory buyback in September, that number now stands at 17 percent. Overall, 21 percent of Texans are still ambivalent about the issue. Methodology The UT Tyler-Texas Opinion Survey reflects a statewide random sample of 1,093 registered voters during the ten days between November 5 and November 14. The mixed mode sample includes 397 registered voters who took the survey by phone and 696 registered voters that were randomly selected from a panel of registered voters that have opted-in to take surveys through a company called Dynata. The online and phone surveys were conducted in English and Spanish. The data were weighted to be representative of the Texas register voter population. Iterative weighting was used to balance sample demographics to the state population parameters. The sample is balanced to match parameters for gender, age, race/ethnicity, and education using an iterated process known as raking. These parameters were derived from 2018 Current Population Survey to reflect Texas’s electorate. The use of these weights in statistical analysis ensures that the characteristics of the sample closely reflect the characteristics of registered voters in Texas. In this poll, the sampling error for 1,093 registered voters in Texas is +/- 2.96 percentage points at a 95 percent confidence interval. The survey’s design asked additional questions to 427 registered voters who identify with the Democratic Party as members or independents that lean towards the party (margin of error of +/- 4.7%). Visit http://www.uttyler.edu/politicalscience/pollingcenter for information about our studies. A member of the prestigious UT System, The University of Texas at Tyler focuses on student success and innovative research in the more than 80 undergraduate and graduate degree programs offered. With more than 10,000 students, UT Tyler has facilities in Tyler, Longview, Palestine and Houston. FOR MORE INFORMATION, CONTACT BEVERLEY GOLDEN [email protected] | 903.330.0495 FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE SURVEY, CONTACT MARK OWENS [email protected] | 903.566.6281 ##31## Texas Opinion Survey Center for Field Dates: November 5-14, 2019 Opinion Research N=1,093 Adults (Registered Voters) Margin of error: +/- 3.0% N=427 Democratic Primary Voters Margin of error: +/- 4.7% Survey of Registered Voters in Texas Are you very enthusiastic, somewhat enthusiastic, somewhat unenthusiastic, or very unenthusiastic about voting in the March primary? Weighted Strong Weak Ind. Ind. No Ind. Weak Strong Dem. Dem. Dem party Rep. Rep. Rep. Very Enthusiastic 49.4% 71.8% 33.9% 38.3% 36.5% 35.7% 23.5% 61.7% Somewhat Enthusiastic 27.9 19.9 31.8 32.4 16.8 41.2 45.6 25.1 No opinion 11.1 4.0 26.5 6.7 5.1 8.5 12.3 6.1 Somewhat Unenthusiastic 6.5 0.9 4.8 10.8 27.0 7.9 14.4 5.0 Very Unenthusiastic 5.2 3.4 3.1 11.8 14.7 6.7 4.5 2.1 Total = 1,090 233 89 81 22 131 126 337 In the 2020 primary, do you plan to vote in the Democratic primary, Republican primary, or not at all? Weighted Democratic primary 40.8% Republican primary 43.3 Neither 5.7 Not sure 10.2 Total = 1,090 Do you consider yourself to be a Republican, Democrat, or neither? Weighted Republican 38.9% Democrat 35.0 Neither 26.1 Total = 1,093 Page 1 of 12 The University of Texas at Tyler Texas Opinion Survey: November 5-14, 2019 [If Republican or Democrat] Do you consider yourself to be a strong [Republican/ Democrat] or not strong [Republican/ Democrat]? OR [If independent, no preference, or other party] Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican Party or to the Democratic Party? Weighted Strong Republican 29.5% Not strong Republican 12.1 Lean Republican, Independent 11.8 Lean to no Party, Independent 2.0 Lean Democratic, Independent 7.3 Not strong Democrat 10.6 Strong Democrat 26.9 Total = 1,021 Using a 7-point scale where 1 is extremely liberal and 7 is extremely conservative, how would you rate your political views. Weighted Dem. Ind. Rep. Extremely liberal 8.7% 17.1% 2.3% 4.8% Liberal 12.4 24.9 6.5 4.6 Slightly Liberal 8.5 12.2 14.3 2.2 Moderate, Middle of the Road 26.1 29.4 46.5 12.6 Slightly Conservative 12.0 8.1 14.8 13.9 Conservative 17.2 4.0 11.1 31.8 Extremely Conservative 15.1 4.3 4.5 30.1 Total = 1,000 365 217 418 In general, do you approve or disapprove of the way President Donald Trump is handling his job as President? Weighted Dem. Ind. Rep. Approve 43.3% 7.0% 33.6% 81.5% Disapprove 49.0 86.5 54.3 12.2 Don’t Know 7.7 6.5 12.1 6.4 Total = 1,026 376 233 417 In general, do you approve or disapprove of the way Senator John Cornyn is handling his job as Senator? Weighted Dem. Ind. Rep. Approve 36.1% 15.9% 22.2% 62.1% Disapprove 34.6 60.4 32.4 12.5 Don’t Know 29.3 32.4 45.4 25.4 Total = 1,027 376 233 418 Page 2 of 12 The University of Texas at Tyler Texas Opinion Survey: November 5-14, 2019 [If Democrat] Please list in order of importance the following characteristics you prefer in a Democratic nominee for president.
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