Finn`S Opinions on Foreign and Security Policy the Advisory Board for Defence Information (ABDI)

ABDI (MTS)

FINNS`OPINIOS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY, NATIONAL DEFENCE AND SECURITY

THE ADVISORY BOARD FOR DEFENCE INFORMATION

Bulletins and reports November, 2018 1/2018

ABDI Bulletins and reports November, 1/2018

Finn`s opinions on foreign and security policy The Advisory Board for Defence Information (ABDI)

Helsinki 2018 Ministry of Defence

ISBN Nid.: 978-951-663-032-1 ISBN PDF: 978-951-663-033-8 Layout: Government Administration Unit, Publications

Helsinki 2018 FOREWORD

A survey commissioned by the Advisory Board for Defence Information (ABDI) ex- plored the opinions of Finnish people on Finnish foreign and security policy as well as defence policy. The survey also included questions on factors affecting safety and citizens’ sense of security, developments over the next five years and factors giving rise to concern. This year’s survey also included a new question about the export of defence materiel. The survey consisted of 18 questions in total, one of which was asked for the first time.

Commissioned by the ABDI, the survey was carried out by market research company Taloustutkimus Oy. The study was conducted as a part of omnibus research in the form of personal interviews. Interviews were carried out with a total of 1,034 individuals. The majority of interviews were conducted at the interviewees’ homes, while 313 individuals were interviewed in reception halls. The target group of the study comprised the entire population between the ages of 15 and 79, with the ex- ception of the Åland Islands. The sample was formed by quota sampling in which the target group’s quotas were the distribution of age, gender, province and municipality. The interviews were conducted in 89 localities, 54 of which were cities and the remaining 35 other municipality types. The sample was weighted to match the target group. The weighted N values correspond to the population aged 15 to 79 in thousands (SVT 31 December 2017).

The interviews were conducted on 21 September–7 October 2018. The margin of error is ±3.2 percentage points.

When interpreting background variables related to party affiliation, it must be taken into account that the margin of error regarding the large parties is smaller, which enables the collection of more reliable information on these when compared to smaller parties whose supporters are numerically fewer in the sample.

Party affiliation was ascertained by asking the following question: “Which party would you vote for if parliamentary elections were held now?” Of all of the respondents, 68 per cent (699 persons) revealed their party affiliation, while 32 per cent (335) declined to do so. In 2017, the corresponding numbers were 67 per cent and 33 per cent.

The report comprises a text section with illustrating figures that also present the time sequence of the questions asked in previous surveys. These illustrations were prepared by Taloustutkimus Oy. Some of the questions represent a continuous sequence since 1964. The questions were drawn up by the research and work branches of the ABDI. The research branch compiled the report for the work branch.

The data from this survey, like that of the previous surveys, are stored in the Finnish Social Science Data Archive at the University of Tampere (www.fsd.uta.fi).

The ABDI’s survey reports are available in Finnish, Swedish and English on the AB- DI’s home page (www.defmin.fi/mts).

In Sweden, the ‘Myndighet för Samhällsskydd och Beredskap’ (MSB) conducts simi- lar surveys. Their most recent report was published in January 2017 and can be accessed here: https://www.msb.se/sv/Produkter--tjanster/Publikationer/Publikation- er-fran-MSB/Opinioner-2017--allmanhetens-syn-pa-samhallsskydd-beredskap-sak- erhetspolitik-och-forsvar/

Also in Norway, the ‘Folk og Forsvar’ conducts annual surveys on security and defence policy; their most recent report was published in August 2018. It can be accessed here: http://www.folkogforsvar.no/meningsmalinger/meningsmalinger-2018

The survey reports published by the ABDI are in the public domain. When referring to them, reference must be made stating that the data come from a survey conducted by the ABDI. Contents

Foreword...... 3

Introduction...... 7 Decrease in will to defend the nation...... 9 Personal will to defend the nation remains strong...... 11 Support for general conscription has declined from last year...... 11 Current general conscription model still viewed as best for Finland’s defence system...... 13 General civic service sees an increase in popularity...... 14 Women less confident in the management of foreign policy...... 14 Support for military non-alignment remains unchanged...... 15 Increased uncertainty about Finland’s NATO membership...... 16 Confidence over the future of the European Union remains unchanged...... 16 Decrease in sense of insecurity...... 17 Finland’s participation in Nordic and EU defence cooperation increases the security of Finland and Finns...... 18 The European Union, the UN and the OSCE have positive effects on Finland’s security..... 19 Decreased confidence in the management of defence policy ...... 20 Support for export of defence materiel under current regulations...... 21 Finland’s defence cooperation viewed positively...... 22 Military situation in Finland’s surroundings not expected to change...... 22 Decline in support for increased defence appropriations ...... 23 Climate change, international terrorism and the global refugee situation cause the greatest concern ...... 24 Research Branch of ABDI in 2015–2019...... 26 Branch-specific ...... 26 Chairs of the ABDI...... 26 Secretariat of the ABDI...... 26 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY

Introduction

The ABDI’s opinion survey for 2018 reveals changes in the answers to many questions compared to the previous year. When it comes to certain questions, the changes are quite significant. This survey does not speculate on the causes of the changes. Future surveys will reveal the direction of development of the changes that are now visible.

In this year’s survey, two thirds of respondents or 66 per cent gave a positive answer concerning the will to defend the nation. This represents a decrease of six per cent compared to the previous year. The last time the rate of positive responses fell be- low 70 per cent was 29 years ago in 1989, when 67 per cent answered the question in the affirmative.

The current general conscription system is supported by three quarters of respondents, or 74 per cent. Compared to last year, support has dropped by seven percentage points. The most significant decrease in support could be seen among respondents aged 15–34. The last time such a result was obtained was in 2015.

For the third time now, the ABDI asked for respondents’ views on general civic service for both men and women, which could be completed as civil or military service. More than half, or 55 per cent, viewed such a model as positive, while one third had negative views and the rest had no opinion. Since 2010, views on this model have become more positive.

Three quarters of respondents, or 75 per cent, feel that defence policy is managed well. Women’s confidence in the way defence policy is being managed weakened by eight percentage points compared to last year, while men’s confidence remained unchanged.

7 ABDI BULLETINS AND REPORTS NOVEMBER 1/2018 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY

A total of 70 per cent have positive views on the handling of foreign policy. Wom- en’s confidence in the handling of foreign policy decreased by six per cent compared to last year, while men’s confidence remained unchanged.

A total of 59 per cent have negative views of Finland’s NATO membership, while the corresponding figure for last year was 62 per cent. One fifth of respondents, or 20 per cent, are in favour of Finland joining NATO; a year ago that figure was 22 per cent. One fifth, or 21 per cent, had no opinion on this question, compared to 17 per cent last year.

A new question this year concerned exports of defence materiel by Finnish companies. One half of respondents, or 49 per cent, felt that the export of defence materiel should continue in line with the current practices and regulations. Nearly one third of respondents (31 per cent) and more than a third of women (39 per cent) were in favour of more stringent criteria for granting export permits.

Two thirds, or 65 per cent, feel the European Union has a positive effect on Finland’s security. The figure for the previous year was 60 per cent. Nearly the same number of respondents, or 64 per cent, feel the UN has a positive effect on Finland’s security, compared to 61 per cent last year.

The greatest cause for concern among respondents was climate change, with nine out of ten respondents now expressing concern, compared with 75 per cent last year.

8 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY

Decrease in will to defend the nation Two thirds of respondents, or 66 per cent (72% in 2017), feel that if Finland is attacked, Finns must defend themselves by military means in all situations, even if the outcome is uncertain. This view was expressed by 70 per cent (79%) of men and 62 per cent (66%) of women.

Among respondents younger than 25 years of age, 49 per cent (66% in 2017) held this view, compared with 62 per cent (66%) of 25–34-year-olds, 69 per cent (73%) of 35–40-year-olds and 72 per cent (76%) of 50–79-year-olds.

Eighty percent (73% in 2017) of Centre Party supporters answered this question in the affirmative, as did 73 per cent (82%) of Finns Party supporters, 71 per cent (68%) of SDP supporters, 65 per cent (80%) of Coalition Party supporters, 55% (67%) of Left Alliance supporters and 36 per cent (65%) of Green Party supporters.

A total of 23 per cent (22% in 2017) of respondents answered the question in the negative, or 23 per cent (25%) of women and 22 per cent (19%) of men.

Thirty-eight per cent of respondents under 25 years of age (28% in 2017) held this view, along with 28 per cent (28%) of 25–34-year-olds, 19 per cent (23%) of 35–49-year-olds and 18 per cent (17%) of 50–79-year-olds.

Forty-nine per cent of Green Party supporters answered in the negative (29% in 2017), as did 30 per cent of Left Alliance supporters (24%), 24 per cent of Coalition Party supporters (18%), 21 per cent of Finns Party and SDP supporters (15% and 25%, respectively) and 15 per cent of Centre Party supporters (24%).

A total of 11 per cent (6% in 2017), or 14 per cent (10%) of women and eight per cent (2%) of men, had no opinion. (Figures 1 and 2)

9 ABDI BULLETINS AND REPORTS NOVEMBER 1/2018 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY

Figure 2A and 2B: The will to defend the nation "If Finland were attacked, should Finns, in your opinion, take up arms to defendthemselves in all situations, even if the outcome seemed uncertain?"

es -answers Whole population Women Men 100

Autumn 2003Autumn 2004Autumn 2005Autumn 2006Autumn 2007Autumn 2008Autumn 2009Autumn 2010Autumn 2011Autumn 2012Autumn 2013Autumn 2014Autumn 2015Autumn 2016Autumn 2017Autumn 2018

es -answers Whole population Under 25 years 25-34 years 100

70 60

Autumn 2003Autumn 2004Autumn 2005Autumn 2006Autumn 2007Autumn 2008Autumn 2009Autumn 2010Autumn 2011Autumn 2012Autumn 2013Autumn 2014Autumn 2015Autumn 2016Autumn 2017Autumn 2018

10 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY

Personal will to defend the nation remains strong When asked ‘Would you be ready to take part in national defence duties to the best of your abilities?’ eighty-four per cent (87% in 2017) answered in the affirmative, or 89 per cent (90%) of men and 80 per cent (84%) of women.

A total of ten per cent (10% in 2017) answered in the negative, with 13 per cent (13%) of women and seven per cent (8%) of men expressing this view. Six per cent (3%) had no opinion. (Figures 3 and 4)

Support for general conscription has declined from last year The current system of general conscription for men enjoys support from three quarters or 74 per cent (81% in 2017) of respondents, or 75 per cent (80%) of women and 72 per cent (81%) of men. Eighty-four per cent (88%) of those over 50 years of age feel this way, as do 75 per cent (76%) of those between 35 and 49, 58 per cent (71%) of those between 25 and 34 and 56 per cent (77%) of respondents between 25 and 34.

Ninety-one percent (97% in 2017) of Centre Party supporters answered this question in the affirmative, along with 81 per cent (84% and 77%, respectively) of SDP and Finns Party supporters, 77 per cent (84%) of Coalition Party supporters, 55 per cent (67%) of Left Alliance supporters and 51 per cent (67%) of Green Party supporters.

When asked if they would be in favour of more selective military service, 13 per cent answered in the affirmative (9% in 2017), or 13 per cent (9%) of men and 12 per cent (9%) of women. Of those younger than 25 years of age, 21 per cent (10%) support this model, as do 20 per cent (11%) of 25–34-year-olds, 13 per cent (10%) of 35–49-year-olds and seven per cent (8%) of respondents over 50.

Increased selectiveness is supported by 28 per cent (13% n 2017) of Green Party supporters, 21 per cent (16%) of Left Alliance supporters, 15 per cent (17%) of SDP supporters, 12 per cent (8%) of Coalition Party supporters, seven per cent (7%) of Finns Party supporters and three per cent (2%) of Centre Party supporters.

Nine per cent (9% in 2017) are in favour of switching to professional armed forces, with 11 per cent (8%) of men and eight per cent (9%) of women taking this view. Support for a professional army was expressed by 17 per cent (18%) of Green Party supporters, 16 per cent (16%) of Left Alliance supporters, eleven per cent (8%) of Finns Party supporters, eight per cent (8%) of Coalition Party supporters, six per cent (0%) of Centre Party supporters and three per cent (6%) of SDP supporters. Four per cent (1% in 2017) had no opinion. (Figures 5 and 6)

11 ABDI BULLETINS AND REPORTS NOVEMBER 1/2018 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY

Figure 6A and 6B: General conscription "Based on a general, compulsory military service for men, Finnish military defence providesmilitary training for as many of the same age group as possible, thus producing a large reserve personnel. Should the current system be retained or should we change over to a selectiveconscript service where only a part of the same age group receives military training? Or should we change over to a professional army?"

Retain the current system Whole population Women Men 100

Autumn 2003Autumn 2004Autumn 2005Autumn 2006Autumn 2007Autumn 2008Autumn 2009Autumn 2010Autumn 2011Autumn 2012Autumn 2013Autumn 2014Autumn 2015Autumn 2016Autumn 2017Autumn 2018 Retain the current system Whole population Under 25 years 25-34 years 100

70 60

Autumn 2003Autumn 2004Autumn 2005Autumn 2006Autumn 2007Autumn 2008Autumn 2009Autumn 2010Autumn 2011Autumn 2012Autumn 2013Autumn 2014Autumn 2015Autumn 2016Autumn 2017Autumn 2018

12 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY

Current general conscription model still viewed as best for Finland’s defence system For the third time now, interviewees were asked what Finland’s defence system should be based on. The alternatives are as follows: 1) the present-day system where men are subject to general conscription and women can serve on a voluntary basis; 2) general conscription for men and women alike; 3) voluntary military service for men and women and 4) fully professional armed forces.

More than half of respondents, or 59 per cent (65% in 2017), support the current conscription system, with 61 per cent (63%) of men and 57 per cent (66%) of women expressing this view. Of those over 50 years of age, 69 per cent (70%) feel this way, as do 60 per cent (65%) of respondents between 35 and 49 years of age and 45 per cent of both 25–34-year-olds and 15–24-year-olds (56% and 57%, respectively).

Of the supporters of the Centre Party, 82 per cent (87% in 2017) are in favour of the current system, along with 70 per cent (61%) of SDP supporters, 66 per cent (73%) of Coalition Party supporters, 60 per cent (68%) of Finns Party supporters 47 per cent (41%) of Green Party supporters and 34 per cent (55%) of Left Alliance supporters.

Seventeen per cent (16% in 2017) of respondents, or 18 per cent (15%) of women and 16 per cent (18%) of men, support conscription for men and women. The responses to this question did not vary significantly based on age group.

Thirty-four per cent of Left Alliance supporters (17% in 2017) are in favour of conscription for men and women, along with 16 per cent (28%) of Green Party supporters, 15 per cent (16%) of Coalition Party supporters, 12 per cent of Centre Party and Finns Party supporters (8% and 14%, respectively) and 11 per cent (15%) of SDP supporters.

Thirteen per cent (11% in 2017) of the respondents feel the best model would be voluntary conscription for men and women alike, with 14 per cent (11%) of women and 12 per cent (10%) of men sharing this opinion.

This view was expressed by twenty-one per cent of the Finns Party and Left Alliance supporters (22% and 12%, respectively), 16 per cent (17%) of SDP supporters, 15 per cent (5%) of Finns Party supporters, nine per cent (6%) of Coalition Party supporters and one per cent (2%) of Centre Party supporters.

13 ABDI BULLETINS AND REPORTS NOVEMBER 1/2018 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY

Eight per cent are in favour of professional armed forces (7% in 2017), or 10 per cent (8%) of men and six per cent (7%) of women.

Three per cent of respondents (1% in 2017) had no opinion, or four per cent (1%) of women and one per cent (1%) of men. (Figure 7)

General civic service sees an increase in popularity In 2008, 2010 and 2018, the ABDI asked the following question: “How would you feel if Finland switched to general civic service for men and women that could be completed as either civil or military service?”

More than half of respondents, or 55 per cent (45% in 2010), have favourable views of general civic service, with 56 per cent (45%) of men and 53 per cent (44%) of women answering in the affirmative.

Sixty-four per cent of Finns Party and Green Party supporters (48% and 48%) view this idea favourably, along with 58 per cent (41%) of Left Alliance supporters, 55 per cent (48%) of SDP supporters and 52 per cent of Centre Party and Coalition Party supporters (39% and 41%, respectively).

One third of respondents, or 32 per cent (52% in 2010), have negative views on this model; the figure was the same for men (51%) and women (53%).

A total of 37 per cent (58%) of Coalition Party supporters expressed negative views, along with 36 per cent (59%) of Left Alliance supporters, 35 per cent (56%) of Centre Party supporters, 33 per cent (49%) of Finns Party supporters, 31 per cent (48%) of SDP supporters and 30 per cent (51%) of Green Party supporters.

Thirteen percent (3% in 2010), or 14 per cent (3%) of women and 12% (3%) of men, had no opinion. (Figure 8)

Women less confident in the management of foreign policy Seventy per cent of the respondents (73% in 2017) think that Finnish foreign policy is managed well, with 75 per cent (73%) of men and 66 per cent (72%) of women taking this view.

14 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY

Of the supporters of the Coalition Party, 83 per cent (87%) think that Finnish foreign policy is managed well, as do 82 per cent (91%) of Centre Party supporters, 81 per cent (75%) of SDP supporters, 67 per cent (82%) of Green Party supporters, 59% (50%) of Finns Party supporters and 51 per cent (71%) of Left Alliance supporters.

A total of 21 per cent (20% in 2017) feel that Finland’s defence policy is poorly managed; 21 per cent (18%) of women and 20 per cent (22%) of men. This view is shared by 35 per cent of Finns Party and Left Alliance supporters (42% and 28%, respectively), 18 per cent (3%) of Centre Party supporters, 17 per cent (8%) of Green Party supporters, 17 per cent (23%) of SDP supporters and 11 per cent (11%) of Coalition supporters.

A total of nine per cent (7% in 2017), or 13 per cent (10%) of women and eight per cent (4%) of men, had no opinion. (Figures 9 and 10)

Support for military non-alignment remains unchanged More than half of the respondents, or 58 per cent (58 % in 2017), support Finland’s military non-alignment, with this view expressed by 63 per cent (59%) of men and 54 per cent (58%) of women.

Among respondents older than 35 years of age, 63 per cent (60% in 2017) support military non-alignment, as do 53 per cent (60%) of 25–34-year-olds and 42 per cent (49%) of persons under 25 years old.

Seventy-one per cent (69%) of SDP supporters support military non-alignment, along with 69 per cent (69%) of Centre Party supporters, 67 per cent (68%) of Left Alliance supporters, 54 per cent (70%) of Finns Party supporters, 50 per cent (37%) of Coalition Party supporters and 41 per cent (52%) of Green Party supporters.

One quarter of respondents, or 25% (29% in 2015), support Finland’s military non-alignment, with 27 per cent (32%) of men and 22 per cent (27%) of women taking this view.

This view is shared by 36 per cent (35% in 2017) of respondents under 25 years of age, 24 per cent (25%) of 25–34-year-olds, 23 per cent (29%) of 35–49-year olds and 22 per cent (29%) of respondents over 50 years of age.

15 ABDI BULLETINS AND REPORTS NOVEMBER 1/2018 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY

Thirty-eight per cent (31%) of Green Party supporters support military non-alignment, as do 35 per cent (52%) of Coalition Party supporters, 25 per cent (24%) of Finns Party supporters, 24 per cent (19%) of Centre Party supporters, 18 per cent (26%) of SDP supporters and 16 per cent (29%) of Left Alliance supporters.

A total of 17 per cent (12% in 2017), or 24 per cent (16%) of women and ten per cent (9%) of men, had no opinion. (Figures 11 and 12)

Increased uncertainty about Finland’s NATO membership When asked if Finland should seek NATO membership, 59 per cent (62% in 2017) answered in the negative, with 62 per cent (63%) of men and 56 per cent (61%) of women expressing this view.

Seventy-eight per cent (81% in 2017) of Left Alliance supporters answered in the negative, as did 73 per cent (70%) of Centre Party supporters, 65 per cent (73%) of SDP supporters, 61 per cent (72%) of Finns Party supporters, 48 per cent (49%) of Green Party supporters and 43 per cent (41%) of Coalition Party supporters.

One fifth of respondents, or 20 per cent (22% in 2017) feel that Finland should seek NATO membership, with 25 per cent (26%) of men and 16 per cent (18%) of women responding in the affirmative.

Of the Coalition Party supporters, 37 per cent (44% in 2017) support membership in NATO, as do 23 per cent (15% and 26%, respectively) of SDP and Green Party supporters, 19 per cent (10%) of Finns Party supporters, 17 per cent (20%) of Centre Party supporters and six per cent (16%) of Left Alliance supporters.

One fifth of respondents, or 21 per cent (17% in 2017) had no opinion, with 28 per cent (22%) of women and 13 per cent (12%) of men taking this view. (Figures 13 and 14)

Confidence over the future of the European Union remains unchanged The ABDI asked interviewees about their confidence in the future of the Euro- pean Union in its 2005, 2016, 2017 and 2018 surveys. This year, more than half of respondents, or 58 per cent (58% in 2017), indicated that their support for the

16 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY

European Union had remained unchanged, with 60 per cent (58%) of women and 57 per cent (58%) of men expressing this view.

This opinion was shared by 69 per cent (61% in 2017) of Green Party supporters, 66 per cent (58%) of SDP supporters, 65 per cent (62%) of Centre Party supporters, 62 per cent (58%) of Coalition Party supporters, 48 per cent (62%) of Left Alliance supporters and 37 per cent (45%) of Finns Party supporters.

One third, or 34 per cent (37% in 2017) of respondents feel that their confidence in the future of the European Union has weakened, with 36 per cent (38%) of men and 33 per cent (37%) of women expressing this opinion. This view is shared by 53 per cent (53%) of Finns Party supporters, 44 per cent (37%) of Left Alliance supporters, 32 per cent of Centre Party and Coalition Party supporters (38% and 33%, respectively), 29 per cent (34%) of SDP supporters and 25 per cent (33%) of Green Party supporters.

Four percent (3% in 2017) feel their confidence in the future of the European Union has strengthened, with five per cent (4%) of men and three per cent (2%) of women taking this view.

Three per cent (1% in 2017), or four per cent (2%) of women and two per cent (1%) of men, had no opinion. (Figure 15)

Decrease in sense of insecurity Around half of respondents, or 49 per cent (60% in 2017), believe that Finland and Finns will be living in a more insecure world over the next five years when compared to today. This view was held by 56 per cent (68%) of women and 42 per cent (52%) of men.

Some differences could be seen between different age groups, with middle-aged and older respondents viewing the future as somewhat less secure than younger ones. A total of 54 per cent (58%) of respondents between 35 and 49 years of age view the future as insecure, as do 52 per cent (61%) of respondents aged 50–79 years, while 48 per cent (63%) of respondents aged 25–34 years and 33 per cent (56%) of those younger than 25 expressed this view.

17 ABDI BULLETINS AND REPORTS NOVEMBER 1/2018 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY

Just under one fifth of respondents, or 18 per cent (14% in 2017) view the future as more secure, with 20 per cent (18%) of men and 15 per cent (10%) of women expressing this view. This view is shared by 26 per cent (16%) of respondents under 25 years of age, 19 per cent (22%) of 25–24-year-olds, 17 per cent (10%) of 50-79-year olds and 12 per cent (16%) of 35-49-year olds

Just under one third of respondents, or 31 per cent (25% in 2017) saw no difference compared to the present, with 35 per cent of men (29%) and 27 per cent of women (20%) giving this response. (Figures 16 and 17)

Finland’s participation in Nordic and EU defence cooperation increases the security of Finland and Finns Starting from 2004, the ABDI has asked a question listing 15 different factors for the respondents to assess based on whether they believe that they improve or weaken the security of Finland and the Finnish people or have no effect at all.

Factors that are believed to improve security are the following: Finland’s participation in Nordic defence cooperation; 81 per cent of respondents (83% in 2017) felt it increased security, one per cent (1%) said it decreased security and 12 per cent (13%) said it had no effect.

Finland’s participation in organising the European Union’s defence cooperation; 72 per cent (70%) said it increased security, four per cent (6%) said it decreased security and 17 per cent (20%) said it had no impact.

Finland’s membership in the European union; 62 per cent (62%) felt it increased security, nine per cent (11%) said it decreased security and 25 per cent (25%) said it had no effect.

Finland’s increasing international economic interaction; 59 per cent (52%) said it had a positive effect on security, six per cent (6%) felt the effect was negative and 29 per cent (37%) felt it had no impact at all.

Finland’s participation in international crisis management duties; 50 per cent (51%) felt it increased security, 10 per cent (9%) felt it decreased security and 34 per cent (36%) felt it had no effect.

18 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY

Finland’s military non-alignment; 46 per cent (46%) felt it had a positive impact, 17 per cent felt (16%) felt the impact was negative and 25 per cent (30%) felt it had no impact.

Finland’s possible NATO membership; 25 per cent (29%) said would increase security, 40 per cent (42%) felt it would decrease security and 19 per cent (17%) felt it would have no effect on security.

Increasing share of foreign ownership in the Finnish economy; eight per cent (8%) felt it increased security; 62 per cent (49%) felt it had a decreasing effect and 22 (37%) felt it had no impact. (Figures 18, 19, 20 and 21)

The European Union, the UN and the OSCE have positive effects on Finland’s security Interviewees were asked to assess the effects of the EU, the OSCE, China, NATO, Rus- sia, the United States and the UN on Finland’s security. The question was asked for the seventh time this year, and for the first time, respondents felt that the European Union had a more positive impact on Finland’s security than the UN. Respondents’ views on the impact of both the EU and the UN have become more positive since last year.

When asked if the European Union had a positive effect on Finland’s security, 65 per cent (60% in 2017) agreed with the statement, while 14 per cent (16%) felt it did not impact security at all and 12 per cent (13%) felt the impact was both positive and negative. Five per cent (3%) viewed the European Union’s impact as negative.

When asked about the effects of the United Nations (UN) on Finland’s security, 64 per cent (61% in 2017) said they were positive. One fifth of respondents, or 19 per cent (23%), felt the UN had no impact on Finland’s security, while eight per cent (9%) felt the impact was both positive and negative, and one per cent (3%) viewed it as negative.

When asked about the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe OSCE, 47 per cent (44% in 2017) felt it had a positive impact on Finland’s security, while one fifth or 21 per cent (26%) did not see any impact and 20 per cent (11%) felt its impact was both positive and negative.

19 ABDI BULLETINS AND REPORTS NOVEMBER 1/2018 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY

Regarding the effects of NATO on Finland’s security, 26 per cent (25% in 2017) felt they were negative, 26 per cent (30%) viewed them as both positive and negative and 24 per cent (24%) felt they were positive. A total of 13 per cent (13% in 2016) felt NATO had no impact on Finland’s security.

When asked about the impact of the United States on Finland’s security, 32 per cent of respondents (35% in 2017) felt it was both positive and negative, 27 per cent (22%) viewed it as negative, 18 per cent (16%) viewed it as positive and 14 per cent (21%) did not feel the United States had any impact on Finland’s security.

Concerning the impact of Russia, 39 per cent of respondents (37% in 2017) viewed it as negative, 30 per cent (31%) felt it was both positive and negative, 13 per cent (14%) viewed it as positive and 11 per cent (13%) felt Russia had no impact on Fin- land’s security.

Just over one third of respondents, or 35 per cent (44% in 2017), felt that China had no impact on the security of Finland, while 21 per cent (22%) viewed its impact as both positive and negative. Sixteen per cent (11%) felt China had a negative impact and 12 per cent (13%) felt its impact was positive. (Figures 22 and 23)

Decreased confidence in the management of defence policy Three quarters of respondents, or 75 per cent (79% in 2017), feel Finland’s defence policy is managed well, with 78 per cent (79%) of men and 73 per cent (81%) of women taking this view. Eighty-one per cent (74%) of those between 35 and 49 years of age feel this way, as do 79 per cent (86%) of those over 50 years of age, 67 per cent (74%) of those between 25 and 34 and 65 per cent (78%) of respondents younger than 25.

Of the supporters of the Centre Party, 93 per cent (87% in 2017) feel Finland’s defence policy is well managed, along with 85 per cent of Coalition Party and SDP supporters (90% and 79%, respectively), 67 per cent (83%) of Green Party supporters, 61 per cent (76%) of Finns Party supporters and 50 per cent (76%) of Left Alli- ance supporters.

20 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY

Fourteen per cent (13% in 2017) of respondents feel Finland’s defence policy is poorly managed, with 16 per cent (16%) of men and 11 per cent (10%) of women expressing this view.

This view was shared by 28 per cent (21% in 2017) of Left Alliance supporters, 27 per cent (21%) of Finns Party supporters, 11 per cent (8%) of Green Party supporters, 10 per cent (17%) of SDP supporters, seven per cent (9%) of Coalition Party supporters and three per cent (6%) of Centre Party supporters.

A total of 11 per cent (7% in 2017), or 16 per cent (9%) of women and ten per cent (5%) of men, had no opinion. (Figures 24 and 25)

Support for export of defence materiel under current regulations This year’s survey included a new question about the export of defence materiel manufactured by Finnish companies.

Half of respondents, or 49 per cent, felt that the export of defence materiel should continue in line with the current practices and regulations, with 59 per cent of men and 38 per cent of women taking this view.

This was the opinion of 62 per cent of Centre Party supporters, 58 per cent of Finns Party supporters, 57 per cent of SDP supporters, 55 per cent of Coalition Party supporters, 46 per cent of Green Party supporters and 19 per cent of Left Alliance supporters.

Slightly less than one third, or 31 per cent, feel that the criteria for granting export licences should be stricter, with 39 per cent of women and 23 per cent of men taking this view.

Forty-eight per cent of Green Party supporters, 40 per cent of Left Alliance supporters, 30 per cent of Centre Party supporters, 28 per cent of SDP supporters, 26 per cent of Coalition Party supporters and 13 per cent of Finns Party supporters were in favour of stricter criteria.

Five per cent of respondents, or eight per cent of men and three per cent of women, felt that all companies should be permitted to export defence materiel. This view

21 ABDI BULLETINS AND REPORTS NOVEMBER 1/2018 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY

was shared by 18 per cent of Finns Party supporters, 10 per cent of Coalition Party supporters, eight per cent of Left Alliance supporters, two per cent of Centre Party supporters and one per cent of both SDP and Green party supporters.

Six per cent of respondents felt that the export of defence materiel should be pro- hibited altogether, with seven per cent of women and four per cent of men expressing this view. This opinion was shared by 21 per cent of Left Alliance supporters, nine per cent of SDP supporters, seven per cent of Finns party supporters, two per cent of Coalition Party supporters and one per cent of Centre Party supporters. No Green Party supporters were in favour of prohibiting all defence materiel exports.

Nine per cent of respondents, or 14 per cent of women and five per cent of men, had no opinion. (Figures 26 and 27)

Finland’s defence cooperation viewed positively Ninety-five per cent of respondents (94% in 2017) have a positive view on military cooperation with all Nordic countries. Ninety-four per cent (94%) have a positive view on cooperation with Sweden.

Nine out of ten respondents, or 90 per cent, have a positive view of Finland’s military cooperation with the European Union (89% in 2017).

Fifty-five percent (61%) of respondents take a positive view on military cooperation with NATO, while 35 per cent (32%) have a negative view.

The same number, fifty-five per cent (59%) of respondents, take a positive view on military cooperation with the United States, while 36 per cent (35%) view it nega- tively. (Figures 28, 29, 30, 31 and 32)

Military situation in Finland’s surroundings not expected to change The last time the ABDI asked interviewees about the military situation Finland’s surroundings over the next ten years was in the 2016 survey. Now the question was asked for the seventh time.

22 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY

Nearly half of respondents, or 48 per cent, feel that the military situation in Finland’s surroundings over the next ten year will remain about the same as it is now (48% in 2016), with 52 per cent of men (54%) and 45 per cent (43%) of women taking this view.

This opinion was shared by 59 per cent of SDP supporters (50% in 2016), 54 per cent of Coalition Party supporters (50%), 53 per cent of Finns Party supporters (40%), 48 per cent of Green Party supporters (53%), 47 per cent of Centre Party supporters (47%) and 37 per cent of Left Alliance supporters (56%).

Forty-one per cent of respondents (44% in 2016), or 47 per cent (49%) of women and 35 per cent (40%) of men, felt the situation would become more threatening over the next ten years. This view was expressed by 52 per cent of Left Alliance supporters (31% in 2016), 44 per cent of Centre Party supporters (47%), 41 per cent of Coalition Party supporters, 40 per cent of Green Party supporters (42%), 37 per cent of Finns Party supporters (51%) and 33 per cent of SDP supporters (49%).

Six per cent of respondents (5% in 2016) felt that the military situation in Finland’s surroundings would become less threatening over the next ten years, with nine per cent of men (5%) and four per cent of women (5%) expressing this view.

Ten per cent of Finns Party supporters felt this way (8% in 2017, along with eight per cent of Centre Party and Left Alliance supporters (5% and 11%, respectively), six per cent of Green Party supporters (2%), five per cent of SDP supporters (1%) and two per cent of Coalition Party supporters (3%).

Four per cent (2% in 2016) had no opinion, with the same figure obtained for both women and men. (Figures 34 and 35)

Decline in support for increased defence appropriations Forty percent (47% in 2017) of the respondents support increasing defence appropriations, with 48 per cent of men (51%) and 34 per cent of women (44%) expressing this opinion.

Sixty-one per cent (55% in 2017) of Finns Party are in favour of increasing appropriations, as are 49 per cent (60%) of Coalition Party supporters, 45 per cent (60%) of

23 ABDI BULLETINS AND REPORTS NOVEMBER 1/2018 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY

Centre Party supporters, 41 per cent (41%) of SDP supporters, 28 per cent (32%) of Green Party supporters and 20 per cent (28%) of Left Alliance supporters.

Forty per cent (40% in 2017) are in favour of keeping defence appropriations at the current level, or 46 per cent (41%) of women and 34 per cent (38%) of men.

This view was held by 53 per cent of Centre Party supporters (37% in 2017), 47 per cent (42%) of SDP supporters, 45 per cent (48%) of Green Party supporters, 37 per cent (34%) of Coalition Party supporters, 35 (53%) of Left Alliance supporters and 21 per cent (35%) of Finns Party supporters.

A total of 12 per cent (8% in 2017) would decrease the amount of defence appropriations, with 15 per cent (9%) of men and nine per cent (7%) of women expressing this view.

Thirty-three per cent of Left Alliance supporters (17% in 2017) are in favour of decreasing the amount, along with 22 per cent (13%) of Green Party supporters, 10 per cent of Coalition Party and Finns Party supporters (5% and 6%, respectively), six per cent of SDP supporters (13%) and two per cent (3%) of Centre Party supporters.

A total of seven per cent (5% in 2017) of respondents, or 10 per cent (8%) of women and four per cent (3%) of men, had no opinion. (Figures 36 and 37)

Climate change, international terrorism and the global refugee situation cause the greatest concern The ABDI has been asking interviewees about factors causing concern since 2004. The list has varied somewhat, but some of the factors have remained the same every year. A new factor added to this year’s survey was fake news reporting directed at Finland. The list consisted of 15 different phenomena or factors. In sum, it can be stated that respondents’ concerns about nearly all of the factors have increased since the 2017 survey. The strongest increase in concern could be seen when interviewees were asked about cyber threats (+16%), climate change (+14%) and the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (+14%).

24 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY

Factors causing much or some concern:

−− Climate change (global warming) 89 per cent (75% in 2017) −− International terrorism 88 per cent (81% in 2017) −− The global refugee situation 87 per cent (83% in 2017) −− Proliferation of weapons of mass destruction 82 per cent (68% in 2017) −− Political extremist movements 82 per cent (72% in 2017) −− Threats against information networks (cyber threats) 79 per cent (63% in 2017) −− Racism 78 per cent (69% in 2017) −− The situation in the Middle East 77 per cent (the situation in Syria in 2017 64%) −− Social inequality in Finland 76 per cent (67% in 2016) −− The security situation in the Baltic Sea area 76 per cent (64% in 2017) −− Developments in the United States 72 per cent (63% in 2017) −− Developments in Russia 71 per cent (63% in 2017) −− The employment situation in Finland 71% (71% in 2017) −− State-sponsored fake news reporting directed at Finland 62 per cent (new item in this year’s survey) −− Development in the European Union 52% (52% in 2017)

(Figures 38, 39, 40, 41 and 42)

25 ABDI BULLETINS AND REPORTS NOVEMBER 1/2018 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY

Research Branch of ABDI in 2015–2019 Chair Harriet Lonka, PhD Deputy Chair Unto Vesa, Researcher Emeritus Members Soili Haverinen, Doctoral Student of Theology Anna Jungner-Nordgren, Public Relations Secretary Johanna Kelhu, Parliamentary Secretary, MSocSc Sari Rautio, Director of Unit as of 24 June 2018 Lieutenant Colonel Niclas von Bonsdorff, Director, Public Relations and International Affairs as of 6 September 2018 Antti Koskela, Expert in Economic Affairs Esko Kurvinen, CEO Anni Lahtinen, Secretary General Juha Mäenpää, Vocational Special Needs Teacher Timo Perälä, Senior Inspector Jussi Salonranta, Analyst Jenna Simula, Parliamentary Assistant, BBA Heli Viiri, Doctor of Agriculture and Forestry, Special Researcher

Branch-specific Experts Teija Mankkinen, DSocSc, Head of Research and Development Teemu Tallberg, PhD, Professor of Military Sociology

Chairs of the ABDI Chair Sofia Vikman, MP Deputy Chair Petteri Leino, Special Adviser to the Minister of Defence Deputy Chair Markku Pakkanen, MP

Secretariat of the ABDI Heli Santala, Secretary General Markus Kinkku, Assistant Secretary General

26 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY

Figure 1. The will to defend the nation "If Finland were attacked, should Finns, in your opinion, take up arms to defend themselves in all situations, even if the outcome seemed uncertain?" es Cannot say No Whole population 66 11 23

Women 62 14 23 Men 70 8 22

Under 25 years 49 12 38 25-34 years 62 11 28 35-49 years 69 12 19 50-79 years 72 11 18

ower education 70 10 20 Post-secondary 64 11 25 University 62 13 25

Woring class 74 9 17 Salaried emp.Self-emp. 61 13 26 Management Under 25 000 62 13 25 25 000-35 000 64 15 21 Over 35 000 68 11 22

South Finland 66 10 23 West Finland 63 12 24 East FinlandOuluapland 69 12 19

Centre Party 80 6 15 The Finns 73 6 21 Coalition Party 65 11 24 Social Democratic P. 71 8 21 Green eague 36 15 49 eft Alliance 55 15 30 Other parties 76 7 17 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

27 ABDI BULLETINS AND REPORTS NOVEMBER 1/2018 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY

Figure 2. The will to defend the nation "If Finland were attacked, should Finns, in your opinion, take up arms to defend themselves in all situations, even if the outcome seemed uncertain?"

es Cannot say No

Autumn 2018 66 11 23 Autumn 2017 72 6 22 Autumn 2016 71 8 21 Autumn 2015 78 5 16 Autumn 2014 76 5 19 Autumn 2013 71 4 25 Autumn 2012 76 5 19 Autumn 2011 76 6 18 Autumn 2010 74 6 20 Autumn 2009 74 4 22 Autumn 2008 72 6 22 Autumn 2007 77 4 19 Autumn 2006 77 3 20 Autumn 2005 77 5 17 Autumn 2004 80 2 18 Autumn 2003 73 6 22 Autumn 2002 78 6 17 Autumn 2001 79 5 16 December 2000 81 4 14 November 1999 75 7 18 une 1999 75 7 18 October 1998 77 5 18 uly 1998 76 6 18 Autumn 1997 76 4 20 Autumn 1996 79 5 15 Autumn 1995 80 5 15 In the year 1994 77 7 17 In the year 1993 75 6 19 In the year 1992 77 7 16 October 1991 70 5 25 April 1991 75 7 19 In the year 1990 74 7 19 In the year 1989 67 13 20 In the year 1988 61 11 28 In the year 1987 73 6 21 In the year 1986 68 8 24 In the year 1982 67 8 25 In the year 1971 43 12 45 In the year 1970 42 7 51 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

28 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY

Figure 3. The will to defend the country (personal level) "If Finland is attacked, would you personally be ready to take part in national defence tasks according to your competences and skills?"

es Cannot say No Whole population 84 6 10

Women 80 7 13 Men 89 5 7

Under 25 years 75 13 12 25-34 years 86 8 6 35-49 years 88 6 6 50-79 years 85 3 12

ower education 82 6 12 Post-secondary 84 4 12 University 87 8 5

Woring class 88 6 6 Salaried emp.Self-emp. 89 4 7 Management Under 25 000 75 10 15 25 000-35 000 76 9 16 Over 35 000 92 2 5

South Finland 83 6 11 West Finland 85 6 8 East FinlandOuluapland 86 6 8

Centre Party 92 1 7 The Finns 86 0 14 Coalition Party 91 2 7 Social Democratic P. 83 5 13 Green eague 84 12 4 eft Alliance 80 7 13 Other parties 87 7 6 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

29 ABDI BULLETINS AND REPORTS NOVEMBER 1/2018 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY

Figure 4. The will to defend the country (personal level)

"If Finland is attacked, would you personally be ready to take part in national defence tasks according to your competences and skills?"

es Cannot say No

Autumn 2018 84 6 10 Autumn 2017 87 3 10 Autumn 2015 87 3 11 Autumn 2014 84 3 12 Autumn 2013 85 3 12 Autumn 2012 87 3 10 October 1998 85 5 10 In the year 1997 84 4 12 In the year 1996 82 3 14 November 1995 86 5 9 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

30 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY

Figure 5. General conscription

"Based on a general, compulsory military service for men, Finnish military defence provides military training for as many of the same age group as possible, thus producing a large reserve personnel. Should the current system be retained or should we change over to a selective conscript service where only a part of the same age group receives military training? Or should we change over to a professional army?" Abolish general Retain the Reduce selectively Cannot conscription and the number of those change over to a current system receiving military training say professional army Whole population 74 13 4 9

Women 75 12 5 8 Men 72 13 4 11

Under 25 years 56 21 4 19 25-34 years 58 20 6 15 35-49 years 75 13 5 8 50-79 years 84 7 3 5

ower education 78 9 4 9 Post-secondary 72 15 3 10 University 69 16 6 10

Woring class 72 14 3 10 Salaried emp.Self-emp. 71 15 4 10 Management Under 25 000 71 13 7 9 25 000-35 000 75 9 3 12 Over 35 000 73 15 3 9

South Finland 72 13 4 11 West Finland 76 12 2 9 East FinlandOuluapland 75 12 7 6

Centre Party 91 3 0 6 The Finns 81 7 1 11 Coalition Party 77 12 3 8 Social Democratic P. 81 15 2 3 Green eague 51 28 4 17 eft Alliance 55 21 7 16 Other parties 81 17 1 2 0 20 40 60 80 100

31 ABDI BULLETINS AND REPORTS NOVEMBER 1/2018 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY

Figure 6. General conscription "Based on a general, compulsory military service for men, Finnish military defence provides military training for as many of the same age group as possible, thus producing a large reserve personnel. Should the current system be retained or should we change over to a selective conscript service where only a part of the same age group receives military training? Or should we change over to a professional army?" Abolish general Retain the Reduce selectively Cannot conscription and the number of those change over to a current system receiving military training say professional army Autumn 2018 74 13 4 9 Autumn 2017 81 9 1 9 Autumn 2016 79 11 1 9 Autumn 2015 75 13 2 10 Autumn 2014 75 11 2 12 Autumn 2013 68 20 1 11 Autumn 2012 72 17 2 9 Autumn 2011 63 26 2 9 Autumn 2010 63 27 1 9 Autumn 2009 72 16 1 11 Autumn 2008 74 15 1 10 Autumn 2007 73 17 1 9 Autumn 2006 71 19 1 9 Autumn 2005 78 13 1 8 Autumn 2004 77 15 0 7 Autumn 2003 79 11 2 8 Autumn 2002 80 9 2 8 Autumn 2001 79 13 1 7 Spring 2001 76 13 3 7 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

32 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY

Figure 7. Finland's defence system "In your view, should Finlands defence system be based on... "

The current system with General conscription oluntary military general conscription for A professional Cannot for both men service for both men and voluntary army say military service for women and women men and women Autumn 2018 59 17 13 8 3

Autumn 2017 65 16 11 7 1

Autumn 2016 69 11 14 6 1 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Women 57 18 14 6 4 Men 61 16 12 10 1

Under 25 years 45 17 21 15 2 25-34 years 45 19 24 12 1 35-49 years 60 16 14 8 2 50-79 years 69 17 5 5 4

ower education 64 17 8 8 3 Post-secondary 52 18 18 8 3 University 57 16 15 9 2

Woring class 58 19 14 7 2 Salaried emp.Self-emp. 55 19 15 11 1 Management Under 25 000 56 18 15 7 5 25 000-35 000 60 15 17 6 2 Over 35 000 59 19 12 9 1

South Finland 55 17 16 10 2 West Finland 61 21 7 9 2 East FinlandOuluapland 66 11 13 4 5

Centre Party 82 12 1 5 0 The Finns 60 12 15 6 7 Coalition Party 66 15 9 9 2 Social Democratic P. 70 11 16 2 1 Green eague 47 16 21 13 3 eft Alliance 34 34 21 9 2 Other parties 52 34 12 2 1 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

33 ABDI BULLETINS AND REPORTS NOVEMBER 1/2018 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY

Figure 8. General civic service "Finland is instituting a general civic service for both men and women. he civic service could be completed as military or nonmilitary service"

Positive Cannot say Negative Autumn 2018 55 13 32 Autumn 2010 45 3 52 Autumn 2008 42 8 51 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Positive Cannot say Negative Whole population 55 13 32

Women 53 14 32 Men 56 12 32

Under 25 years 61 13 26 25-34 years 53 9 38 35-49 years 53 13 33 50-79 years 54 15 31

ower education 54 17 28 Post-secondary 57 11 32 University 54 9 37

Woring class 58 11 30 Salaried emp.Self-emp. 52 10 37 Management Under 25 000 54 13 33 25 000-35 000 55 9 36 Over 35 000 55 11 34

South Finland 63 10 27 West Finland 49 13 38 East FinlandOuluapland 43 21 36

Centre Party 52 13 35 The Finns 64 3 33 Coalition Party 52 11 37 Social Democratic P. 55 14 31 Green eague 64 6 30 eft Alliance 58 6 36 Other parties 60 12 28 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

34 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY

Figure 9. The conduct of Finnish foreign policy "In your opinion, how well or how poorly has Finnish foreign policy been conducted in recent years?" Extremely Fairly Cannot Fairly Extremely well well say poorly poorly Whole population 9 61 9 17 4

Women 6 60 13 20 1 Men 12 63 4 13 7

Under 25 years 4 62 18 16 1 25-34 years 5 54 11 26 4 35-49 years 11 59 9 18 4 50-79 years 11 65 5 13 6

ower education 9 56 11 17 7 Post-secondary 11 63 5 18 4 University 8 68 8 15 1

Woring class 4 57 11 23 6 Salaried emp.Self-emp. 10 64 4 19 3 Management Under 25 000 12 53 11 20 4 25 000-35 000 4 68 8 17 2 Over 35 000 9 65 6 15 5

South Finland 9 60 8 19 4 West Finland 10 58 9 15 7 East FinlandOuluapland 7 67 10 13 3

Centre Party 18 63 2 16 2 The Finns 10 49 6 31 4 Coalition Party 14 69 5 10 1 Social Democratic P. 6 75 2 17 0 Green eague 1 66 16 16 1 eft Alliance 9 42 14 24 11 Other parties 28 57 1 13 1 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

35 ABDI BULLETINS AND REPORTS NOVEMBER 1/2018 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY

Figure 10. The conduct of Finnish foreign policy "In your opinion, how well or how poorly has Finnish foreign policy been conducted in recent years?" Well Cannot say Poorly

Autumn 2018 70 9 21 Autumn 2017 73 7 20 Autumn 2016 70 6 24 Autumn 2015 63 5 32 Autumn 2014 70 5 25 Autumn 2013 73 4 23 Autumn 2012 75 5 21 Autumn 2011 76 5 19 Autumn 2010 80 5 15 Autumn 2009 81 4 16 Autumn 2008 79 5 16 Autumn 2007 84 3 13 Autumn 2006 81 5 14 Autumn 2005 82 4 13 Autumn 2004 84 2 14 Autumn 2003 86 4 11 Autumn 2002 79 6 14 Autumn 2001 87 3 10 Spring 2001 89 4 7 December 2000 81 6 13 uly 2000 89 2 9 November 1999 85 5 10 une 1999 88 4 9 October 1998 77 7 16 In the year 1997 72 6 21 In the year 1996 71 8 20 November 1995 73 6 22 une 1995 87 1 13 In the year 1994 78 4 18 In the year 1993 73 6 21 In the year 1992 73 4 24 In the year 1991 62 5 33 December 1990 79 6 14 May 1990 67 9 23 In the year 1989 75 7 18 In the year 1988 85 7 8 In the year 1987 90 6 5 November 1986 91 4 5 anuary 1986 93 3 4 In the year 1984 95 3 4 In the year 1983 94 4 2 In the year 1982 93 3 5 In the year 1981 93 3 4 In the year 1980 87 6 7 In the year 1979 86 8 6 In the year 1978 84 10 6 In the year 1975 85 6 9 In the year 1974 85 7 8 In the year 1973 87 7 6 In the year 1972 86 7 7 In the year 1971 96 2 2 In the year 1970 95 1 4 In the year 1969 87 5 8 In the year 1964 90 5 5 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 36 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY

Figure 11. Military alignment or non-alignment "In your opinion, should Finland remain militarily nonaligned or should Finland aim to ally itself militarily?" Remain Cannot non-aligned say Whole population 58 17 25

Women 54 24 22 Men 63 10 27

"If Finland is attacked, would you personally be ready to take part in national defence tasks according to your competences and skills?"

es Cannot say No

ower education 61 17 22 Post-secondary 59 14 26 University 55 19 26

Woring class 59 16 25 Salaried emp.Self-emp. 60 13 26 Management Under 25 000 54 21 25 25 000-35 000 60 18 22 Over 35 000 61 15 24

South Finland 56 16 28 West Finland 61 19 20 East FinlandOuluapland 60 16 23

Centre Party 69 7 24 The Finns 54 21 25 Coalition Party 50 15 35 Social Democratic P. 71 11 18 Green eague 41 21 38 eft Alliance 67 18 16 Other parties 65 22 13 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

37 ABDI BULLETINS AND REPORTS NOVEMBER 1/2018 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY

Figure 12. Military alignment or non-alignment "In your opinion, should Finland remain militarily nonaligned or should Finland aim to ally itself militarily?"

Remain Cannot Aim to non-aligned say ally itself Autumn 2018 58 17 25 Autumn 2017 58 12 29 Autumn 2016 57 12 31 Autumn 2015 54 12 33 Autumn 2014 58 8 34 Autumn 2013 67 8 25 Autumn 2012 68 7 25 Autumn 2011 69 10 21 Autumn 2010 67 6 27 Autumn 2009 61 8 31 Autumn 2008 58 11 31 Autumn 2007 69 3 27 Autumn 2006 67 7 26 Autumn 2005 58 9 32 Autumn 2004 61 5 34 Autumn 2003 65 11 24 Autumn 2002 70 8 22 Autumn 2001 79 5 16 Spring 2001 68 10 21 December 2000 66 9 25 uly 2000 71 8 20 November 1999 68 11 21 une 1999 74 8 18 October 1998 60 11 29 uly 1998 64 10 27 In the year 1997 67 8 25 In the year 1996 69 11 20 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

38 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY

Figure 13. Nato membership "In your opinion, should Finland seek membership in ato?" es Cannot say No Whole population 20 21 59

Women 16 28 56 Men 25 13 62

Under 25 years 31 27 42 25-34 years 14 21 65 35-49 years 19 18 63 50-79 years 20 20 60

ower education 21 19 61 Post-secondary 21 22 57 University 19 23 58

Woring class 19 21 60 Salaried emp.Self-emp. 22 15 63 Management Under 25 000 18 24 58 25 000-35 000 15 26 58 Over 35 000 21 16 63

South Finland 24 19 57 West Finland 17 22 61 East FinlandOuluapland 17 23 60

Centre Party 17 11 73 The Finns 19 20 61 Coalition Party 37 20 43 Social Democratic P. 23 12 65 Green eague 23 29 48 eft Alliance 6 16 78 Other parties 22 16 62 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

39 ABDI BULLETINS AND REPORTS NOVEMBER 1/2018 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY

Figure 14. Nato membership "In your opinion, should Finland seek membership in ato?"

es Cannot say No

Autumn 2018 20 21 59 Autumn 2017 22 17 62 Autumn 2016 25 14 61 Autumn 2015 27 15 58 Autumn 2014 30 10 60 Autumn 2013 21 10 70 Autumn 2012 18 10 71 Autumn 2011 20 10 70 Autumn 2010 25 7 68 Autumn 2009 28 10 62 Autumn 2008 28 12 60 Autumn 2007 26 5 69 Autumn 2006 26 10 65 Autumn 2005 28 9 63 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

40 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY

Figure 15. Confidence in the future of the European Union "What kind of con dence do you have in the future of the European Union? In the last two years, has your con dence been strengthened, weakened or has it remained the same?" Remained Cannot Strengthened Weaened the same say Autumn 2018 4 58 3 34 Autumn 2017 3 58 1 37 Autumn 2016 2 45 2 52 Autumn 2005 8 53 1 39

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Remained Cannot Strengthened Weaened the same say Whole population 4 58 3 34

Women 3 60 4 33 Men 5 57 2 36

Under 25 years 3 72 3 22 25-34 years 7 54 2 38 35-49 years 2 64 1 33 50-79 years 5 53 4 38

ower education 4 56 5 34 Post-secondary 4 62 2 33 University 4 60 1 35

Woring class 2 54 2 42 Salaried emp.Self-emp. 5 58 1 37 Management Under 25 000 7 53 6 34 25 000-35 000 3 55 3 38 Over 35 000 3 60 1 36

South Finland 6 56 3 35 West Finland 3 59 3 35 East FinlandOuluapland 2 62 3 32

Centre Party 1 65 1 32 The Finns 3 37 7 53 Coalition Party 6 62 0 32 Social Democratic P. 4 66 2 29 Green eague 6 69 1 25 eft Alliance 6 48 1 44 Other parties 11 47 4 38 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

41 ABDI BULLETINS AND REPORTS NOVEMBER 1/2018 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY

Figure 16. A more secure or more insecure future "Considering the present world situation as a whole, do you believe that during the next ve years Finland and Finns will live in a safer or in a less safe world compared to the present?" No di erence Cannot Safer to the present say Less safe Whole population 18 31 2 49

Women 15 27 2 56 Men 20 35 3 42

Under 25 years 26 39 2 33 25-34 years 19 32 1 48 35-49 years 12 30 3 54 50-79 years 17 28 3 52

Lower education 20 29 3 47 Post-secondary 14 32 3 51 University 16 32 1 51

Working class 14 32 2 53 Salaried emp./Self-emp./ 14 31 3 52 Management Under 25 000 € 23 28 2 47 25 000-35 000 € 15 31 3 51 Over 35 000 € 15 32 2 51

South Finland 20 26 3 51 West Finland 18 33 1 48 East Finland/Oulu/Lapland 13 37 2 47 Centre Party 13 35 2 50 The Finns 10 27 4 59 Coalition Party 20 35 0 45 Social Democratic P. 16 36 1 47 Green League 19 31 3 47 Left Alliance 19 20 3 58 Other parties 27 20 1 52 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 %

42 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY

Figure 17. A more secure or more insecure future "Considering the present world situation as a whole, do you believe that during the next ve years Finland and Finns will live in a safer or in a less safe world compared to the present?" No di erence Cannot Safer to the present say Less safe

Autumn 2018 18 31 2 49 Autumn 2017 14 25 1 60 Autumn 2016 13 27 1 59 Autumn 2015 10 23 1 65 Autumn 2014 14 28 1 56 Autumn 2013 20 36 1 43 Autumn 2012 20 33 1 46 Autumn 2011 17 40 1 42 Autumn 2010 27 30 1 41 Autumn 2009 28 30 1 40 Autumn 2008 18 31 2 49 Autumn 2007 24 29 1 46 Autumn 2006 20 31 2 47 Autumn 2005 29 23 2 46 Autumn 2004 17 40 1 42 Autumn 2003 30 26 2 42 Autumn 2002 22 25 3 51 Spring 2001 26 24 3 46 In the year 2000 37 27 2 33 In the year 1999 19 36 2 42 In the year 1998 26 47 2 25 Autumn 1997 28 30 2 39 Autumn 1996 22 31 4 43 November 1995 22 26 4 48 June 1995 15 43 2 39 October 1994 23 27 5 44 May 1994 18 21 5 57 November 1993 16 31 7 46 April 1993 18 22 7 53 November 1992 15 28 5 52 April 1992 18 22 6 54 October 1991 28 16 5 51 May 1991 29 22 4 45 October 1990 18 25 5 52 May 1990 25 30 7 38 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 %

43 ABDI BULLETINS AND REPORTS NOVEMBER 1/2018 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY

Figure 18. Factors affecting security "How do you assess the following phenomena and factors? How do they a ect the security of Finland and Finns?" Increases Has no Cannot Lessens security e ect say security

Finland's participation in Nordic 81 12 5 1 defence cooperation

Finland participates in the common 72 17 6 4 defence of the EU

Finland’s membership in the EU 62 25 4 9

Finland’s economic cooperation 59 29 6 6 increases internationally

The participation of Finnish troops in 50 34 7 10 crisis-management tasks

Finland’s military non-alignment 46 25 12 17

Finland’s possible membership in Nato 25 19 16 40

Increase of foreign ownership 8 22 8 62 in Finland's economy

0 20 40 60 80 100 %

44 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY

Figure 19. Factors affecting security (I) "How do you assess the following phenomena and factors? How do they a ect the security of Finland and Finns?" Increases Has no Cannot Lessens security e ect say security Finland's participation in Nordic defence cooperation Autumn 2018 81 12 5 1 Autumn 2017 83 13 3 1 Autumn 2016 79 16 4 2 Autumn 2015 74 19 4 4 Autumn 2014 75 20 3 2 Autumn 2013 74 21 3 2 Autumn 2012 66 27 3 4 Finland participates in the common defence of the EU Autumn 2018 72 17 6 4 Autumn 2017 70 20 5 6 Autumn 2016 62 24 7 8 Autumn 2015 56 26 6 12 Autumn 2014 61 25 4 10 Autumn 2013 53 31 5 11 Autumn 2012 49 32 5 14 Autumn 2011 52 31 5 12 Autumn 2010 69 22 4 4 Autumn 2009 61 23 6 10 Autumn 2008 64 23 6 7 Autumn 2007 69 22 3 6 Autumn 2006 55 28 4 13 Autumn 2005 59 21 4 16 Autumn 2004 54 30 3 13 Finland’s membership in the EU Autumn 2018 62 25 4 9 Autumn 2017 62 25 2 11 Autumn 2016 54 33 2 11 Autumn 2015 50 35 3 11 Autumn 2014 54 37 2 7 Autumn 2013 47 42 2 9 Autumn 2012 45 41 2 12 Autumn 2011 53 34 2 10 Autumn 2010 71 22 2 5 Autumn 2009 58 34 3 5 Autumn 2008 63 29 3 6 Autumn 2007 60 33 1 6 Autumn 2006 49 35 2 13 Autumn 2005 56 33 2 9 Autumn 2004 52 36 1 11 0 20 40 60 80 100 % ABDI BULLETINS AND REPORTS NOVEMBER 1/2018 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY

Figure 20. Factors affecting security (II) "How do you assess the following phenomena and factors? How do they a ect the security of Finland and Finns?" Increases Has no Cannot Lessens security e ect say security Finland’s economic cooperation increases internationally Autumn 2018 59 29 6 6 Autumn 2017 52 37 5 6 Autumn 2016 48 39 5 7 Autumn 2015 45 40 5 9 Autumn 2014 45 40 6 9 Autumn 2013 39 46 5 10 Autumn 2012 36 48 6 10 Autumn 2011 39 40 5 16 Autumn 2010 52 37 5 6 Autumn 2009 40 45 6 9 Autumn 2008 49 37 7 7 Autumn 2007 48 41 4 7 Autumn 2006 43 42 4 11 Autumn 2005 38 44 6 12 Autumn 2004 37 47 4 13 The participation of Finnish troops in crisis-management tasks* Autumn 2018 50 34 7 10 Autumn 2017 51 36 3 9 Autumn 2016 46 40 4 10 Autumn 2015 40 41 4 14 Autumn 2014 41 44 4 11 Autumn 2013 35 49 3 13 Autumn 2012 16 53 4 27 Autumn 2011 17 46 5 31 Autumn 2010 22 40 6 32 Autumn 2009 21 42 5 33 Autumn 2008 23 46 7 24 Autumn 2007 25 45 4 26 Autumn 2006 26 48 3 24 Autumn 2005 24 39 5 32 Autumn 2004 20 46 2 32 Finland’s military non-alignment Autumn 2018 46 25 12 17 Autumn 2017 46 30 9 16 Autumn 2016 45 30 7 18 Autumn 2015 38 34 6 23 Autumn 2014 42 31 6 22 Autumn 2013 35 45 5 15 Autumn 2012 38 39 7 17 Autumn 2011 41 34 8 17 Autumn 2010 41 33 6 20 Autumn 2009 38 35 6 21 Autumn 2008 42 30 7 22 Autumn 2007 45 34 4 17 Autumn 2006 42 38 5 15 Autumn 2005 43 36 6 15 Autumn 2004 40 43 3 15 0 20 40 60 80 100 % *) 2004-2012 The participation of Finnish troops in crisis-management tasks in war zones

46 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY

Figure 21. Factors affecting security (III) "How do you assess the following phenomena and factors? How do they a ect the security of Finland and Finns?" Increases Has no Cannot Lessens security e ect say security

Finland’s possible membership in Nato Autumn 2018 25 19 16 40 Autumn 2017 29 17 12 42 Autumn 2016 32 21 12 36 Autumn 2015 35 18 11 36 Autumn 2014 37 20 10 33 Autumn 2013 32 31 6 30 Autumn 2012 24 31 8 37 Autumn 2011 28 29 10 33 Autumn 2010 35 32 7 27 Autumn 2009 34 27 8 32 Autumn 2008 34 23 10 33 Autumn 2007 37 23 5 35 Autumn 2006 31 30 8 31 Autumn 2005 36 27 6 31 Autumn 2004 37 24 4 34 Increase of foreign ownership in Finland's economy Autumn 2018 8 22 8 62 Autumn 2017 8 37 6 49 Autumn 2016 7 45 7 41 Autumn 2015 7 42 5 46 Autumn 2014 7 34 5 54 Autumn 2012 5 38 4 53 Autumn 2011 8 36 5 51 Autumn 2010 9 37 5 49 Autumn 2009 5 35 5 56 Autumn 2008 8 33 6 53 Autumn 2007 14 38 3 45 Autumn 2006 11 41 5 43 0 20 40 60 80 100 %

47 ABDI BULLETINS AND REPORTS NOVEMBER 1/2018 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY

Figure 22. The impact of various factors on Finland's security

"ow do you assess the impact of the following factors on Finlands security?" Both positive Positive No Cannot Negative and negative e ect e ect say e ect e ects

The EU 65 14 5 5 12 The UN 64 19 8 1 8 OSCE 47 21 22 0 10 Nato 24 13 12 26 26 USA 18 14 8 27 32 Russia 13 11 7 39 30 China 12 35 15 16 21 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 %

48 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY

Figure 23. The impact of various factors on Finland's security

"ow do you assess the impact of the following factors on Finlands security?"

Both positive Positive No Cannot Negative and negative e ect e ect say e ect e ects The EU Autumn 2018 65 14 5 5 12 Autumn 2017 60 16 3 7 13 2016 58 21 3 5 13 Autumn 2010 57 15 2 7 19 Autumn 2009 69 13 2 4 12 Autumn 2008 60 13 2 6 20 Autumn 2007 59 15 1 5 20 The UN Autumn 2018 64 19 8 1 8 Autumn 2017 61 23 5 3 9 Autumn 2016 61 27 4 1 7 Autumn 2010 64 22 2 1 11 Autumn 2009 77 15 2 1 5 Autumn 2008 70 18 2 1 9 Autumn 2007 72 20 1 1 7 OSCE Autumn 2018 47 21 22 0 10 Autumn 2017 44 26 18 1 11 Autumn 2016 38 33 17 2 11 Autumn 2010 46 25 11 2 16 Autumn 2009 55 24 10 2 10 Autumn 2008 50 24 10 3 13 Autumn 2007 46 29 10 2 14 Nato Autumn 2018 24 13 12 26 26 Autumn 2017 24 13 8 25 30 Autumn 2016 26 19 7 25 24 Autumn 2010 21 26 5 21 28 Autumn 2009 28 21 6 22 22 Autumn 2008 23 16 6 32 22 Autumn 2007 23 22 3 28 23 USA Autumn 2018 18 14 8 27 32 Autumn 2017 16 21 5 22 35 Autumn 2016 21 26 5 19 28 Autumn 2010 14 33 3 17 33 Autumn 2009 25 32 4 11 28 Autumn 2008 7 35 3 22 33 Autumn 2007 11 33 3 23 31 Russia Autumn 2018 13 11 7 39 30 Autumn 2017 14 13 5 37 31 Autumn 2016 6 15 5 50 24 Autumn 2010 9 20 4 28 40 Autumn 2009 16 19 5 27 33 Autumn 2008 4 18 3 40 35 Autumn 2007 11 19 2 34 34 China Autumn 2018 12 35 15 16 21 Autumn 2017 13 44 10 11 22 Autumn 2016 8 55 10 10 17 Autumn 2010 7 54 6 11 22 Autumn 2009 10 54 8 11 18 Autumn 2008 6 51 7 14 22 Autumn 2007 9 50 5 14 23 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 % 49 ABDI BULLETINS AND REPORTS NOVEMBER 1/2018 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY

Figure 24. The conduct of defence policy in Finland "In your opinion, how well or how poorly has Finlands defence policy been conducted in recent years?" Extremely Fairly Cannot Fairly Extremely well well say poorly poorly Whole population 7 68 11 12 2

Women 6 67 16 10 1 Men 8 70 6 13 3

Under 25 years 6 59 22 12 1 25-34 years 2 65 16 16 1 35-49 years 4 77 8 10 1 50-79 years 11 68 8 11 3

ower education 8 67 11 11 3 Post-secondary 8 66 10 14 2 University 5 71 13 11 0

Woring class 5 63 11 18 3 Salaried emp.Self-emp. Management 5 73 8 12 2

Under 25 000 5 65 12 16 2 25 000-35 000 5 74 8 12 0 Over 35 000 6 72 10 11 1

South Finland 8 69 10 11 1 West Finland 5 68 14 10 3 East FinlandOuluapland 7 68 10 14 1

Centre Party 10 83 4 3 0 The Finns 8 53 11 26 1 Coalition Party 10 75 8 6 1 Social Democratic P. 4 81 4 10 0 Green eague 2 65 22 10 1 eft Alliance 0 50 22 21 7 Other parties 6 87 2 5 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

50 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY

Figure 25. The conduct of defence policy in Finland "In your opinion, how well or how poorly has Finlands defence policy been conducted in recent years?" Extremely Fairly Cannot Fairly Extremely well well say poorly poorly Autumn 2018 7 68 11 12 2 Autumn 2017 10 69 7 12 1 Autumn 2016 7 72 6 14 2 Autumn 2015 6 68 5 19 2 Autumn 2014 4 65 5 23 2 Autumn 2013 4 65 6 22 2 Autumn 2012 5 68 5 19 3 Autumn 2011 7 74 7 11 0 Autumn 2010 10 66 5 18 1 Autumn 2009 10 75 4 10 1 Autumn 2008 7 73 5 13 1 Autumn 2007 8 75 2 14 1 Autumn 2006 8 75 4 10 2 Autumn 2005 14 63 4 17 2 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

51 ABDI BULLETINS AND REPORTS NOVEMBER 1/2018 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY

Figure 26. Export of defence material "Which of the following alternatives re ects best your view on the exports of defence material by Finnish companies?" Export of defence material should tae place in accordance with the 49 current practice and regulations

Criteria for granting export 31 licences should be tightened

Export of defence material should be entirely banned 6

Export of defence material should be permitted anywhere 5

Cannot say 9

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

52 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY

Figure 27. Export of defence material "Which of the following alternatives re ects best your view on the exports of defence material by Finnish companies?"

Export of defence Export of defence material should tae Criteria for granting Export of defence material should be Cannot export licences material should be place in accordance say permitted anywhere with the current practice should be tightened entirely banned and regulations

Whole population 5 49 9 31 6

Women 3 38 14 39 7 Men 8 59 5 23 4 Under 25 years 8 54 11 25 2 25-34 years 5 44 16 27 8 35-49 years 9 49 10 30 2 50-79 years 3 49 6 35 7

ower education 6 52 12 22 9 Post-secondary 4 51 7 35 3 University 6 43 8 40 3

Woring class 4 53 9 28 5 Salaried emp.Self-emp. 9 47 5 36 4 Management Under 25 000 3 48 9 33 6 25 000-35 000 2 49 11 34 4 Over 35 000 7 48 6 33 5

South Finland 6 47 8 33 5 West Finland 6 47 7 32 8 East FinlandOuluapland 2 53 14 27 4

Centre Party 2 62 5 30 1 The Finns 18 58 5 13 7 Coalition Party 10 55 7 26 2 Social Democratic P. 1 57 5 28 9 Green eague 1 46 5 48 0 eft Alliance 8 19 11 40 21 Other parties 16 41 7 35 1 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

53 ABDI BULLETINS AND REPORTS NOVEMBER 1/2018 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY

Figure 28. Military cooperation

"Finland conducts military cooperation with Sweden, other ordic countries, ato and the uropean nion. hat is your view on cooperation?" ery Rather Cannot Rather ery positive positive say negative negative

With all Nordic countries Autumn 2018 53 42 3 2 1 Autumn 2017 55 39 2 3 0 Autumn 2016 50 44 3 2 0 Autumn 2015 50 44 2 4 0 Autumn 2014 48 46 2 4 0 Autumn 2013 47 46 2 3 1 Autumn 2012 40 51 2 5 1 With Sweden Autumn 2018 56 38 3 2 1 Autumn 2017 60 34 2 3 0 Autumn 2016 52 42 3 2 1 Autumn 2015 55 39 2 4 1 Autumn 2014 52 42 2 4 0 In the European Union Autumn 2018 32 58 4 5 1 Autumn 2017 35 54 4 6 1 Autumn 2016 29 58 4 8 1 Autumn 2015 23 61 3 11 1 Autumn 2014 24 62 3 10 1 Autumn 2013 21 63 2 12 1 Autumn 2012 16 63 4 16 1 With Nato Autumn 2018 14 41 11 26 9 Autumn 2017 16 45 7 22 10 Autumn 2016 17 43 6 27 6 Autumn 2015 17 41 6 27 10 Autumn 2014 17 39 5 30 9 Autumn 2013 10 39 6 33 12 Autumn 2012 9 36 7 36 11 With the United States Autumn 2018 12 43 9 26 10 Autumn 2017 14 45 7 25 10 Autumn 2016 15 49 6 24 6

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

54 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY

Figure 29. Military cooperation with all Nordic countries

"Finland conducts military cooperation with all ordic countries. hat is your view on cooperation?" ery Rather Cannot Rather ery positive positive say negative negative

Whole population 53 42 3 2 1

Women 49 46 4 1 0 Men 56 39 1 3 1

Under 25 years 55 40 2 2 0 25-34 years 47 49 2 2 0 35-49 years 51 45 3 1 1 50-79 years 54 40 3 2 1

ower education 47 44 4 3 1 Post-secondary 56 42 2 1 0 University 58 40 2 0 0

Woring class 43 53 2 3 0 Salaried emp.Self-emp. 59 39 1 0 1 Management Under 25 000 51 41 4 4 0 25 000-35 000 49 43 4 4 0 Over 35 000 54 43 1 1 1

South Finland 61 35 2 2 0 West Finland 44 53 2 1 1 East FinlandOuluapland 47 44 6 3 0

Centre Party 69 27 2 3 0 The FinnsPS 41 57 0 2 0 Coalition Party 67 32 1 0 0 Social Democratic P. 52 45 2 1 0 Green eague 62 35 3 0 0 eft Alliance 32 58 3 6 0 Other parties 60 38 1 2 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

55 ABDI BULLETINS AND REPORTS NOVEMBER 1/2018 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY

Figure 30. Military cooperation with Sweden "Finland conducts military cooperation with Sweden. hat is your view on cooperation?" ery Rather Cannot Rather ery positive positive say negative negative

Whole population 56 38 3 2 1

Women 53 41 5 2 0 Men 59 36 2 2 1

Under 25 years 56 39 2 3 0 25-34 years 53 42 3 2 0 35-49 years 51 42 4 2 1 50-79 years 60 34 3 2 1

ower education 50 42 4 3 1 Post-secondary 61 35 2 1 0 University 60 35 3 1 0

Woring class 44 50 2 4 0 Salaried emp.Self-emp. 61 36 2 1 1 Management Under 25 000 56 36 5 4 0 25 000-35 000 52 42 5 1 0 Over 35 000 58 38 2 1 1

South Finland 64 31 2 2 0 West Finland 48 46 3 2 1 East FinlandOuluapland 49 43 6 2 0

Centre Party 70 26 2 2 0 The Finns 45 51 0 4 0 Coalition Party 67 30 1 1 1 Social Democratic P. 63 32 2 3 0 Green eague 64 30 6 0 0 eft Alliance 41 49 4 6 1 Other parties 71 28 0 2 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

56 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY

Figure 31. Military cooperation in the European Union "Finland conducts military cooperation with the uropean union. hat is your view on cooperation?" ery Rather Cannot Rather ery positive positive say negative negative

Whole population 32 58 4 5 1

Women 26 65 6 4 0 Men 39 52 2 7 1

Under 25 years 32 61 4 3 0 25-34 years 27 62 3 8 0 35-49 years 30 63 3 3 1 50-79 years 35 53 5 6 1

ower education 29 57 5 8 2 Post-secondary 34 59 3 3 0 University 35 60 3 3 0

Woring class 25 65 2 7 1 Salaried emp.Self-emp. 40 55 1 3 1 Management Under 25 000 28 57 7 7 1 25 000-35 000 28 59 6 7 0 Over 35 000 35 60 1 3 1

South Finland 39 53 3 4 1 West Finland 25 64 3 7 1 East FinlandOuluapland 26 63 7 4 0

Centre Party 37 59 1 2 0 The Finns 23 62 0 15 0 Coalition Party 50 48 1 1 0 Social Democratic P. 26 67 2 4 0 Green eague 34 61 5 0 0 eft Alliance 18 64 5 12 0 Other parties 52 43 4 2 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

57 ABDI BULLETINS AND REPORTS NOVEMBER 1/2018 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY

Figure 32. Military cooperation with Nato "Finland conducts military cooperation with ato. hat is your view on cooperation?" ery Rather Cannot Rather ery positive positive say negative negative

Whole population 14 41 11 26 9

Women 8 40 16 28 8 Men 19 42 5 24 10

Under 25 years 17 43 15 20 6 25-34 years 8 40 10 31 12 35-49 years 13 45 8 29 5 50-79 years 16 38 11 24 11

ower education 14 37 10 28 11 Post-secondary 11 46 9 27 7 University 15 42 12 23 7

Woring class 12 42 9 28 8 Salaried emp.Self-emp. 16 44 7 27 7 Management Under 25 000 15 32 16 29 8 25 000-35 000 14 37 9 35 5 Over 35 000 14 46 6 27 7

South Finland 17 40 9 23 11 West Finland 12 37 12 31 9 East FinlandOuluapland 9 47 12 26 6

Centre Party 8 57 3 18 14 The Finns 13 32 4 41 10 Coalition Party 29 50 3 15 2 Social Democratic P. 12 46 5 28 10 Green eague 13 35 23 30 0 eft Alliance 5 21 14 42 19 Other parties 16 46 9 25 3 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

58 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY

Figure 33. Military cooperation with the United States "Finland conducts military cooperation with the nited States. hat is your view on cooperation?" ery Rather Cannot Rather ery positive positive say negative negative

Whole population 12 43 9 26 10

Women 6 45 12 26 11 Men 19 40 5 26 9

Under 25 years 20 37 13 23 7 25-34 years 7 40 8 34 10 35-49 years 8 51 5 27 8 50-79 years 14 41 9 24 12

ower education 15 40 8 25 12 Post-secondary 10 41 7 32 9 University 11 47 10 24 8

Woring class 11 42 9 30 9 Salaried emp.Self-emp. 10 48 5 29 8 Management Under 25 000 14 34 14 26 12 25 000-35 000 15 36 8 35 7 Over 35 000 12 48 5 26 10

South Finland 16 41 8 26 9 West Finland 11 40 10 27 13 East FinlandOuluapland 8 49 9 26 8

Centre Party 11 53 2 26 9 The Finns 17 36 3 36 8 Coalition Party 25 54 1 18 2 Social Democratic P. 8 47 3 35 7 Green eague 13 34 20 30 4 eft Alliance 2 22 14 31 31 Other parties 7 54 7 28 3 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

59 ABDI BULLETINS AND REPORTS NOVEMBER 1/2018 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY

Figure 34. The military situation in Finland’s near environs

"hat is your estimate of the military situation in Finlands near environs during the net decade?"

ess More or less Cannot More threatening the same say threatening

Whole population 6 48 4 41

Women 4 45 4 47 Men 9 52 4 35

Under 25 years 7 58 3 32 25-34 years 10 45 6 40 35-49 years 4 48 5 43 50-79 years 6 47 3 44

ower education 8 53 5 35 Post-secondary 4 44 3 48 University 6 45 4 45

Woring class 6 51 3 40 Salaried emp.Self-emp. 8 44 4 44 Management Under 25 000 4 52 4 39 25 000-35 000 8 47 6 39 Over 35 000 6 50 3 41

South Finland 8 49 4 39 West Finland 6 46 2 46 East FinlandOuluapland 4 51 6 39

Centre Party 8 47 1 44 The Finns 10 53 0 37 Coalition Party 2 54 3 41 Social Democratic P. 5 59 3 33 Green eague 6 48 5 40 eft Alliance 8 37 3 52 Other parties 5 65 4 26 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

60 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY

Figure 35. The military situation in Finland’s near environs

"hat is your estimate of the military situation in Finlands near environs during the net decade?" ess More or less Cannot More threatening the same say threatening

Autumn 2018 6 48 4 41 Autumn 2015 5 48 2 44 Autumn 2014 6 46 1 46 Autumn 2011 7 70 2 21 Autumn 2007 9 68 1 22 Autumn 2005 10 70 2 17 Autumn 2004 8 67 2 24

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

61 ABDI BULLETINS AND REPORTS NOVEMBER 1/2018 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY

Figure 36. Defence appropriations "hat is your opinion on funds allocated to the efence Forces?" Raised Raised Remain at Cannot Decreased Decreased signi cantly somewhat present level say somewhat signi cantly

Whole population 9 31 40 7 8 4

Women 8 26 46 10 7 2 Men 11 37 34 4 9 6

Under 25 years 5 35 38 9 11 3 25-34 years 9 30 29 14 13 5 35-49 years 6 26 52 7 7 3 50-79 years 13 34 38 4 6 5

Lower education 15 32 37 7 5 5 Post-secondary 8 30 44 6 9 3 University 4 32 40 8 11 4

Working class 12 35 38 8 4 4 Salaried emp./Self-emp./ 6 27 46 6 11 4 Management Under 25 000 € 8 32 34 8 11 7 25 000-35 000 € 6 32 44 7 10 2 Over 35 000 € 9 31 44 6 8 4

South Finland 10 30 40 8 8 4 West Finland 11 35 37 3 9 5 East Finland/Oulu/Lapland 7 30 43 9 7 3

Centre Party 10 35 53 0 2 0 The Finns 13 48 21 9 2 8 Coalition Party 8 41 37 5 9 1 Social Democratic P. 9 32 47 6 5 1 Green League 2 26 45 4 19 3 Left Alliance 9 11 35 12 18 15 Other parties 12 24 57 0 7 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 %

62 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY

Figure 37. Defence appropriations "hat is your opinion on funds allocated to the efence Forces?"

Should be raised Remain at Cannot Should be decreased present level say Autumn 2018 40 40 7 12 Autumn 2017 47 40 5 8 Autumn 2016 47 41 4 9 Autumn 2015 47 42 4 7 Autumn 2014 56 36 3 6 Autumn 2013 32 51 4 14 Autumn 2012 33 52 3 12 Autumn 2011 27 50 3 19 Spring 2011 34 45 3 18 Autumn 2010 31 50 3 17 Autumn 2009 27 59 2 12 Autumn 2008 33 49 4 14 Autumn 2007 39 47 1 12 Autumn 2006 44 45 2 8 Autumn 2005 31 59 3 8 Autumn 2004 38 53 1 7 Autumn 2003 29 57 2 11 Autumn 2002 31 56 2 10 Autumn 2001 36 52 2 10 Spring 2001 44 44 3 9 December 2000 46 44 2 7 November 1999 34 49 5 11 October 1998 26 59 3 12 uly 1998 26 52 3 18 In the year 1997 35 50 3 12 In the year 1996 29 55 3 14 November 1995 24 58 3 15 une 1995 34 50 2 15 October 1994 31 52 2 15 May 1994 30 48 5 17 October 1993 27 51 2 19 April 1993 14 52 3 31 In the year 1992 15 58 2 24 October 1991 17 43 2 38 April 1991 33 46 2 20 In the year 1990 33 50 4 12 In the year 1989 29 47 4 20 December 1988 26 50 5 18 April 1988 31 50 6 13 In the year 1987 29 49 5 16 anuary 1986 26 57 4 13 December 1986 32 49 5 15 In the year 1985 36 48 3 12 In the year 1984 33 51 3 12 In the year 1983 33 48 5 14 In the year 1982 32 49 5 14 In the year 1981 32 48 7 13 In the year 1980 41 42 5 12 In the year 1979 37 43 10 10 In the year 1978 38 38 12 12 In the year 1975 41 41 7 11 In the year 1974 42 41 8 9 In the year 1973 42 44 5 9 In the year 1972 36 48 8 8 In the year 1971 46 42 4 8 In the year 1970 56 33 3 8 In the year 1969 46 38 7 9 In the year 1964 17 55 12 16 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 ABDI BULLETINS AND REPORTS NOVEMBER 1/2018 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY

Figure 38. Factors causing concern among the citizens "ow would you assess the following phenomena and actors? o what etent do they make you worry about the future?" To some Cannot Not A lot A little extent say at all

Climate change (global warming) 55 34 0 7 3

International terrorism 55 33 0 10 2

The refugee situation in the world 54 33 1 10 2 Proliferation of weapons of mass destruction 48 34 1 14 3

Politically extremist movements 43 39 2 13 3

Threats, in other words cyber 38 41 2 16 3 threats against information networs Racism 38 40 0 18 5

Situation in the Middle East 36 41 2 16 5

Social ineuality in Finland 35 41 1 19 3

Security situation in the 24 52 1 16 6 Baltic Sea area Development in the United States 31 41 3 17 8 The employment situation in Finland 26 45 0 23 6 Development in Russia 25 46 3 20 7

State-sponsored fae news 23 39 3 26 9 reporting directed at Finland Development of the European Union 12 44 4 28 12

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

64 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY

Figure 39. Factors causing concern among the citizens (I) "ow would you assess the following phenomena and actors? o what etent do they make you worry about the future?" To some Cannot Not A lot A little extent say at all Climate change (global warming) Autumn 2018 55 34 0 7 3 Autumn 2017 31 44 0 18 7 Autumn 2016 26 45 1 21 7 Autumn 2015 30 42 0 20 8 Autumn 2014 25 38 1 26 10 Autumn 2013 21 36 1 28 14 Autumn 2012 21 38 0 27 14 Autumn 2011 18 36 0 30 16 Autumn 2010 24 39 0 25 12 Autumn 2009 37 39 1 15 7 Autumn 2008 33 42 0 18 7 Autumn 2007 51 36 0 11 2 Autumn 2006 32 41 0 22 5 Autumn 2005 37 41 0 19 3 Autumn 2004 22 45 0 25 7 International terrorism Autumn 2018 55 33 0 10 2 Autumn 2017 43 38 0 16 2 Autumn 2016 35 40 1 20 4 Autumn 2015 46 37 0 14 3 Autumn 2014 32 42 1 20 5 Autumn 2013 24 38 0 30 8 Autumn 2012 27 39 0 24 9 Autumn 2011 32 35 0 25 7 Autumn 2010 37 33 1 23 6 Autumn 2009 34 42 1 17 6 Autumn 2008 39 41 1 16 4 Autumn 2007 51 38 0 9 2 Autumn 2006 47 36 0 14 2 Autumn 2005 50 35 1 11 4 Autumn 2004 50 36 0 11 2 The refugee situation in the world Autumn 2018 54 33 1 10 2 Autumn 2017 46 37 0 14 2 Autumn 2016 40 45 1 11 3 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 ) 2004-2015 Global warming

65 ABDI BULLETINS AND REPORTS NOVEMBER 1/2018 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY

Figure 40. Factors causing concern among the citizens (II) "ow would you assess the following phenomena and actors? o what etent do they make you worry about the future?"

To some Cannot Not A lot A little extent say at all Proliferation of weapons of mass destruction Autumn 2018 48 34 1 14 3 Autumn 2017 32 36 2 25 6 Autumn 2016 27 37 2 27 7 Autumn 2015 34 37 1 21 6 Autumn 2014 33 35 1 23 8 Autumn 2013 26 35 1 29 9 Autumn 2012 29 33 1 29 8 Autumn 2011 35 34 0 24 8 Autumn 2010 39 32 1 22 5 Autumn 2009 25 42 2 25 6 Autumn 2008 27 40 1 26 6 Autumn 2007 42 37 0 18 2 Autumn 2006 35 38 1 23 3 Autumn 2005 34 38 1 23 4 Autumn 2004 36 42 0 21 3 Politically extremist movements Autumn 2018 43 39 2 13 3 Autumn 2017 37 35 2 20 5 Autumn 2016 35 39 2 19 5 Threats, in other words cyber threats against information networs Autumn 2018 38 41 2 16 3 Autumn 2017 21 42 3 29 6 Autumn 2016 18 42 3 28 9 Autumn 2015 19 43 3 26 9 Autumn 2014 21 42 2 26 9 Autumn 2013 13 37 2 35 12 Autumn 2012 18 36 3 30 13 Autumn 2011 20 39 2 31 9 Autumn 2010 22 38 2 29 9 Autumn 2009 23 42 2 25 9 Autumn 2008 24 45 2 24 5 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 ) 2008-2012 Cyber threats against information networs

66 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY

Figure 41. Factors causing concern among the citizens (III) "ow would you assess the following phenomena and actors? o what etent do they make you worry about the future?"

To some Cannot Not A lot A little extent say at all Racism Autumn 2018 38 40 0 18 5 Autumn 2017 31 38 1 22 7 Autumn 2016 31 39 1 22 8 Situation in the Middle East Autumn 2018 36 41 2 16 5 Autumn 2013 18 38 1 34 9 Autumn 2012 22 36 2 29 11 Autumn 2011 15 34 2 34 16 Autumn 2010 11 35 1 36 17 Autumn 2009 12 40 3 35 10 Autumn 2008 13 37 2 36 11 Autumn 2007 21 45 1 27 6 Autumn 2006 24 43 1 26 6

Social ineuality in Finland Autumn 2018 35 41 1 19 3 Autumn 2017 26 41 1 24 8 Autumn 2016 27 42 3 23 6

Security situation in the Baltic Sea area Autumn 2018 24 52 1 16 6 Autumn 2017 18 46 1 26 8 Autumn 2016 19 47 2 24 8

Development in the United States Autumn 2018 31 41 3 17 8 Autumn 2017 27 36 2 26 8

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

67 ABDI BULLETINS AND REPORTS NOVEMBER 1/2018

Figure 42. Factors causing concern among the citizens (IV)

"ow would you assess the following phenomena and actors? o what etent do they make you worry about the future?" To some Cannot Not A lot A little extent say at all The employment situation in Finland Autumn 2018 26 45 0 23 6 Autumn 2017 28 43 0 25 4 Autumn 2016 43 41 1 13 3 Autumn 2015 49 38 0 10 3 Autumn 2014 49 37 0 11 2 Autumn 2013 42 41 0 15 2 Autumn 2012 37 43 0 15 5 Autumn 2011 31 44 0 21 4 Autumn 2010 30 41 1 23 5 Autumn 2009 38 43 1 15 4 Autumn 2008 20 45 0 27 8 Development in Russia Autumn 2018 25 46 3 20 7 Autumn 2017 25 37 2 29 8 Autumn 2016 27 45 2 19 7 Autumn 2015 26 43 1 23 6 Autumn 2014 32 43 2 18 6 Autumn 2013 10 32 2 38 18 Autumn 2012 13 36 2 31 18 Autumn 2011 11 36 2 34 17 Autumn 2010 10 39 2 32 17 Autumn 2009 12 36 3 35 14 Autumn 2008 16 40 2 29 13 Autumn 2007 20 48 1 24 7 Autumn 2006 19 38 1 31 11 Autumn 2005 13 38 1 35 12 Autumn 2004 20 42 2 29 6 State-sponsored fae news reporting directed at Finland Autumn 2018 23 39 3 26 9 Development of the European Union Autumn 2018 12 44 4 28 12 Autumn 2017 11 41 3 35 10 0 20 40 60 80 100

The Advisory Board for Defence Information (ABDI)

Set up by the Government, the Advisory Board for Defence Information (ABDI) is a perma- nent Parliamentary Committee, which administratively functions in the Ministry of Defence. In addition to parliamentary members, ABDI’s members represent various expert organisations: the Prime Minister’s Office, Ministry for Foreign Affairs, Ministry of the Interior, Ministry of Defence, Ministry of Education and Culture, Defence Command Finland, Finnish Broadcasting Company, Finnish News Agency (STT), Union of Journalists in Finland, Finnish Media Federation, National Defence University, and Tampere Peace Research Institute (TAPRI).

ABDI investigates, on an annual basis, the opinions and attitudes of Finns towards security policy and the factors influencing them and conducts at least one extensive survey that covers the entire adult population in Finland. The questions cover foreign and security policy and national defence. Some of the questions represent a continuous sequence since the 1960s. The surveys by ABDI are in the public domain and accessible to all.

The Advisory Board for Defence Information (ABDI)

Ministry of Defence BP 31 00131 HELSINKI