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^i£& I ± I I I rA S E ANmz ASEAN (D* Ccb^jzO, ASEAN mift-y l/if>X£iif— % ygffct ASEAN $>2>WthQA'?Z> *iW& Portions of this document may be illegible in electronic image products. Images are produced from the best available original document. Z 9 7 ¥ 7 £ ©# >#'?7fcMWmMM.m Sofcu *>^'77«, mm©##^ Bmmm^©#m&. m© oitvi \zmt> s © (c%±c ^ ^ t \zmmvtv * So C©«k'5&##SAi&'3%:a<, #^^^#d±^V*^m^©mm#©e#&S±#(cj;D, US <&#%.sc &&, *ms#ee©m^-#mk:ov*TkL ###©#A©#i0f?& 0, • mM&WM&mmmM. #±@m#© % © Tm^ c a u As #^©me^, mu©# #&a ¥m o#3^ mm. e# m rntm® : tiplliM- SBO 3—5 4 0 1—8 3 9 2 E-mail [email protected]) Summary 1 ASEAN l.lASEANGDjfc*: ------1 2 ASEANCMil 2.1 ASEANOtS ------16 2.2 AS EANd^nST’MfcVTe^SJ------21 2.3 ASEANOI# ------22 2.4 9O^ft0ASEAN ------23 2.5 ASEANOK^C ------28 2.6 ------31 3 3.1 ------33 3.2 . ------33 3.3 ms------34 3.4 ------46 3.5 ^ASEAN- 1 0fc#t*S''*I'^A©jL8 ‘ 63 3.6 #±$a^A S E AN©## ------70 4 4.1 #a------78 4.2 %%#=$!! ------79 4.3 ms##i------80 4.4 ------89 4.5 A S E AN £19*3*5 5©SB------100 5 ylrx 5.1 ##------112 5.2 ]%##:#------112 5.3 WS#fM------113 5.4 Wl#5llt ------120 6 6.1 #a------122 6.2 ------122 6.3 ------124 6.4 ------135 7 ASEAN©4# 7.1 ASEAN©^ii------137 7.2 AS E AN©W9t&*©"5TEtt ------140 7.3 ASEAN©####------140 8 M7z?T This report surveys potential impacts of ASEAN (Association of South East Asian Nations) on inter-ASEAN affairs and its external relations when ASEAN will enlarge its members to include all nations in South East Asia, and thus fully represent the region. For this purpose, the survey was conducted on Vietnam, Myanmar, Laos and Cambodia from the viewpoint of their economic and political system, and their relations with other member countries. The following is a summary of conclusion from the survey. ASEAN was established in 1967 to reconciliate its members relations and functioned as an association of non-communist countries in the region. It has achieved political gains which had not been possible without ASEAN for its individual member. This, in return, has contributed domestic political stability of its members. The nature of ASEAN has gradually transformed in the 90s as the Cold War disappeared. One change is to increase all the countries in the region, and the other one is to tackle internal economic issues. Vietnam joined ASEAN in 1995, Myanmar and Laos in 1997, and probably Cambodia in 1998. It will be an association to represent all the countries in the region. A typical example of Its new initiative in inter ASEAN economic issues is creation of AFTA (ASEAN Free Trade Area) in 1993. It has an aim to stimulate inter-ASEAN trade and induce foreign direct investment into ASEAN as a whole by reducing import duties on intra ASEAN trade. Underlying in these new development is a concern about growing economic and military power of People's Republic of China, which is a potential threat for the region. ASEAN wanted to attract foreign investment competing with China and cover all the countries in the region to alleviate the influence of China and thus contribute as a leverage against China. The new movement is, however, a challenge against well established practice of “non-intervention in domestic affairs”. My anmar which just joined ASEAN, and Cambodia which will probably become a member in near future have problems related to ‘democracy ’ and ‘human rights ’. Especially on Cambodia, ASEAN is forced to intervene in the domestic affairs of Cambodia. “Free and fair” election in coming July will be the condition to accept Cambodia's entry into ASEAN, which ASEAN has to judge and tell it; ASEAN has avoided to engage in intra-ASEAN cooperation which has an adverse effects on some of its members through consensus decision- making process. If AFTA is an effective arrangement, it has an adverse effect through relocation of industries in the region. The intra-ASEAN cooperation of actual significance also suffered and complicated because of contagious currency devaluation and resulting recession in 1997. New members of ASEAN has achieved considerable portion of their aims. The government increased their domestic legitimacy by the acceptance of countries in the region, and expect smooth expansion of foreign direct investment because of their new status as an ASEAN member.. For a while, there is no adverse economic influence and they are bothered to participate some 300 times a year ASEAN meetings. The differences in their level of economy and political regimes are not causing any troubles for ASEAN decision making. What is now more important for ASEAN is an inability to come to an consensus on common policy to cope with the effects of currency devaluation. Especially Indonesia has become a headache. The inability of ASEAN will substantially reduce ASEAN’s presence, which may eventually affect its new members' attitude toward ASEAN. If we think of future role of ASEAN such as more peaceful relations between the members and thus contribution to the regional stability, ASEAN needs to intervene in their members’ domestic affairs, and thereby keep its integrity. ASEAN solidarity will work as an leverage against China should it change toward worse, and ASEAN will function as a regional stabilization factor. ASEAN is needed for the stability of both in economic and political order in East Asia. Thus, Japan has to further promote its cooperation with ASEAN to help its solidarity as an association, especially on the matters related to global environmental issues especially when we consider sensitivity of human right situations in some countries of ASEAN. imm ASEAN X >n-£&*V, rme-j asean (Dimw&, mvm%k\z.E ASEAN (Association o f South East Asian Nations ; $WT(1, 1967 stffloEMBMtxtesn, K&mmvmum&tvT, @o^T-OTprtg^« £_htfT%tco COB#, y hS&ofco C O «k ? 6ASEAN 0#%#, 90^-fttCXD, SSMOiT^tC Wo-eo#om&^>x-azT&g;#&, asean in 95 s? ^7,mhu 98 mzn, 7mm-t%>mz&&&z>o ctie»^xoHS^>n-{c-rs^, asean rnwr^TSB^T ns-s-j EI2.&0 WiOEME'vOE D 93 #0 AFTA (ASEAN Free Trade Area : ASEAN S A%#@) $■§0 c0-oo##omy:kL 5. E^s^^st 5^*XSCOWTi#*LTV^„ Z.(Dfcib, —^Oi/jSWSOM^SMU ASEAN 0CO0#LV##kL cn^T'O ASEAN O tV^ffKifC^&KitSt tows. 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Cfl6 14 0 T^j XfcL F# Kj &MCS1U E, W^^tiTV^o PDC©'RS(D3>hn-;i/Ttc$ S. fl5". mm*. 1 SE¥falFm^E^(SPDC) 0)T(Di&WBSEl 4 SPDC ] * 1 M® I v 1 &SS 1 1 j&KSSS 1 i i 1 SE&6 1 ■ 4 , t t T ------" 1 nsH Iff- 1 ftffiftHBr 1 i mSfl 1 1 sm i t a 1 37F © ▼ 7 I k f? 1 r t X 1 ' f r & IH/'ffEOSPDC | 1 m/'szomm IB/ffE©ffi»^l 1 B/1=E©SE® 1 <0 r 4 . 4 , t 1 7 |tt!E©SPDC | 1 i jfiKoawgf i 1 i8E©$im 1 1---- iSEroES®—------1 -f i . 4 , t > iffimwsPDc i i fflUi©aw0f i Lsm©ffi$5@ i 1 SBrfT©S5SB I t t —ittr&fc.fctmmirospDc i i», !7-7->ay y. *aa. #*Bf. maty tHHff: Myanmar Survey Research 1998 " 5 -v >-?-imffi 79 4. 3 10 88 ¥®SSIH (M) -a ^6> 97 #cwmm{bL-c^a. go d > e^s6 4. 2 GDP (IMF) (9 0##%) 250000 200000 - 150000 100000 50000 HiBx : International Finance Statistics 1997 67 PEER (1998) 80 m 4.3, mmoyzcTascc 10 cop las 4.5 #b> 3 ^yy-mjljG D P s 5-8 emsm ^rYy h Q%#U—HX 70000 X 11 1$(# lj 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 tB/?f: Myanmer Statistical Yearbook 1995 81 mm4. 4 $ mm i £tt-¥g 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 MM 39.7 40.3 39.3 38 . 5 39.0 38.7 37.5 38.4 37.9 38.1 7.1 7.3 7.9 8 . 0 7.4 7.2 7.6 7.3 7.1 6.9 $1# 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.6 1.5 1.2 Iks 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 mmm 9.9 9.2 9.2 8.7 9.3 9.1 8.8 8.9 9.2 9.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.0 BE 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.5 1.9 2.5 2.9 2.9 3.1 3.2 3. 6 3.6 3.8 3.6 3.8 3.8 4.0 4.0 4.1 4.0 m# 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.0 A# 2.4 2.6 2.8 3.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.1 &A•tit- 4.6 4.8 5.2 5.9 6.7 6.8 7.2 6.7 6.7 6. 5 HX HX 3.9 4.1 4.3 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.5 4.4 4.3 MB 23.9 23.1 22.6 22.4 22.7 22.7 22.2 22.1 21.9 22.0 Ath 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 tH0f:Myaimar Statistical Yearbook 1995 mm a. s $ ^ (bwe) (#&: AfMFS, W77^;W 89 90 91 92 93 94 m kxy % mm i 12 8 0 5 8 600 10 632 24.6 77>X 2 10 455 1 465 18.1 3 64 97 1 8 41 200 26 411 16.0 4 3 5 23 229 55 25 316 12.3 5 80 93 30 20 4 5 226 8.8 B# 6 40 60 1 0 6 101 3.9 7 80 3 2 83 3.2 my 8 72 1 72 2. 8 9 9 45 16 7 70 2.7 ## 10 1 11 1 14 31 7 17 64 2.5 11 50 3 4 3 0 9 61 2.4 7 k y tr> 14 0 7 1 7 0.3 47 3 0 5 1 6 20 62 2.4 ASEAN 68 102 1 31 270 261 52 733 29 'off* 449 281 6 104 377 1352 130 2569 100. 0 Myanmar Statistical Yearbook 19 9 5 7 y >x 9 4 68 PEER (1998) \Z£Z>. 82 Bt�t)X'T 74~75%Sg££tbTV>5= a, bwa#m# (93 ¥so'>xy 68 .5%), mmm css. 2%), Am# (84 .2%) Tjtww<, mm# (26.7%), mm (0.3%), mm (23.8 %) ?-e mE $ t- (comru, mm 4.6 (d.5 mftivWsttiA&M.zt* mm 4.11 ms 4.12 ;k OF^>7^i 94 #StcSSLTV^/Ot, %6CFTS&T4> 1zfrz>tce ASEAN ft, 94#g#44%T&9, 80 #RlCiiz<5£i&OTLT^5. *B^© #mm, 88#Sftft, 43%a#j#L7h^, ^©ttMUTV^. i7Jfe§§-5t, ASEAN TTft, ^7jt-;iz (94#mi4.6%), (BU< 10%) ASEAN £#:0v'x7ft, 94#gfcft38% j£ 19 jyTWmftffi (1995) Ej:S. 71 Sire 83 \mm4. 6 5-fr 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 ^ ttiBJf: International Finance Statistics 1997 84 4. 7 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 ttiBf: Myanmar Statistical Yearbook 1995 114. 8 5^>^- SB 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 m a# 45.1 36.1 30.3 8.4 20.2 29.4 29.3 36.6 34.5 50.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 47.5 52.8 53.4 35.5 34.2 43.0 42.5 34.0 36.8 28.2 #) 0.6 0.9 1.7 1.8 1.6 0.3 02 0.2 0.2 0.9 mmm 0.0 1.1 2.4 4.1 2.1 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.0 6.7 8.7 5.1 4.1 7.0 22 7.8 4.7 4.6 RH□ ##E 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.4 ^CDf&^iSS 0.4 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.8 0.6 2.4 3.3 5.8 6.8 1.2 0.3 0.3 46.4 37.9 19.1 23.3 18.0 17.4 8.4 mtitilt 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 ttiSt:Myanmar Statistical Yearbook 1995 85 [4. 9 $i?xy —SiA 9000 Ml EJM## 85 86 97 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 ttiSr : Myanmar Statistical Yearbook 1995 86 mu 4.10 s-v yv-osxsE 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 1.3 0. 1 0.2 0.3 0.8 1.9 3.6 2.7 2.1 5.6 0C 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0. 2 0.3 0.5 0.4 mm 0.5 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0. 2 0.3 0.3 0.6 2.1 2. 0 0.9 1.7 3.3 4.3 3.4 1.6 4.1 3.4 ###B•M 1.6 1.5 1.0 1.0 2.2 7.9 7.2 7.4 6.7 9.7 10.1 11.7 7.1 6.4 11.0 5.6 7.2 11.5 13.3 7.3 24.9 19.4 21.4 14.8 10.9 12.2 11.7 16.1 17.1 17.5 CJ RR mm-%mmm 51.1 60.7 63.4 42.0 35. 6 37.0 32.3 27.7 31.4 31.8 8.4 4.0 5.1 3.3 4.1 3.7 3.0 3.1 4.0 4.3 0.1 0.5 0.5 30.2 31.5 26.6 31.2 29.4 20.5 19.5 -O# 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100. 0 Myanmar Statistical Yearbook 1995 B: 8 87 SE4.11 5^>V- IHl!i 4. 12 5 -Y y~7—0^jA7fe@ (M-#l%) 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 3fCiM7'J7 11.2 8.0 7.6 11.0 28.6 27.0 35.6 32.1 32.7 38.1 9.2 5.6 5.8 5.7 9.3 9.6 12.4 10.7 10.4 14.6 Ti/-'>y 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.9 2.4 6.9 7.2 6.1 7.2 9.4 OF^yy 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 1.0 2.2 4. 1 3.8 0.5 0.8 0.7 4.2 16.5 10.0 14.9 13.0 10.9 10.0 74UO 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0. 2 ASEAN 11.2 8.0 7.6 11.0 28.5 27.0 35.6 32.0 32.5 37.9 *0 3.7 2.4 0.6 27.0 15.3 21.8 16.8 17.6 15.9 12.2 ## 1.3 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.7 1.7 3.0 OF 0.1 0. 2 0.1 0.6 1.4 0.7 2.8 2. 3 3. 6 3.7 0# 43.6 50.4 40.3 33.2 23.8 16.3 21.9 28.6 25.5 23. 6 ^@#777 2.9 5.3 3.1 3.2 4.5 3.8 3.2 4.4 7.3 6.6 37.2 32.6 47.6 24.6 26.3 29.8 19.3 14.1 13.3 12. 8 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 ttiBr: @4. 1 Oicl^c 88 4. 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