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Business News No Talacker 41, 8001 Zurich, Switzerland, Phone: +41 43 443 72 00, Fax: +41 43 497 22 70, [email protected], www.amcham.ch, October 2020 / No. 400 Last quarter of a very special year: What is ahead? The latest events (more pictures on pages 4/5) Dear members and friends 2020 started with a boom and had a strongly positive outlook. 20/20 vision is the perfect vision, after all! But as we all know, the year turned out differently. The Swiss-American business relationship had a roaring start. After Q4, 2019, the first quarter of 2020 again saw the US market #1 for Swiss exports, ahead of the German market! Exports to the US grew CHF 974 mio, four times the growth to the EU, while exports to the BRIC countries posted a negative growth of CHF 470 mio. Again, the exports to the USA proved to be the locomotive of the Swiss export industry. As we all know, Q2 Lugano, Annual Dinner, September 17: Franco Polloni Zurich, September 29: J. Erik Fyrwald, saw exports to the US crashing down 22% (EFG Bank / former Ticino Chapter Board Chairman), CEO, Syngenta Group and Board due to the Covid crisis in general and logistics Silvio Napoli (Schindler Holding / Swiss Amcham Member Swiss Amcham [MS] problems as a specific issue. But in the last Chairman), Demis Stucki (EFG Bank / Ticino Chapter months, progress came much faster than Board Chairman) expected and in August, the US market was again the top export market for Switzerland. The Swiss-US Business relationship has everything to flourish in the future. A “Hot Fall” Ahead! In the USA, multiple crises unfold. Economy, In the coming months, our members, all active in international business, will come under pandemic, protests against police violence increased pressure. In Switzerland, after the successful result of the Limitation Initia- and racism, China-US tensions and congres- tive, we are facing new hurdles: the very dogmatic Corporate Responsibility Initiative, sional paralysis over Covid aid package looming issues with the EU (data equivalency, multilateral recognition agreements, are eagerly followed by the whole world, participation in the Erasmus and Horizon programs, energy and health agreements and in many places with much glee. The situa- the Framework Agreement) and reform of corporate taxes in response to the OECD tion is overshadowed by a messy and loud efforts will challenge the operations of our members. On top, parliamentary initiatives election campaign, epitomized by a chaotic under the innocently sounding motto of “making companies more resilient” will push school-yard brawl named “first Presidential age-old dreams of redistribution, green economy and renationalization, targeting debate” with each side playing exclusively salaries, boni, dividends, share buybacks, corporate taxes, additional environmental to their own constituency. But beneath gun fees, special regulations of all kind, protectionism in many sectors and many other smoke and fog, we discover first signs of unappealing measures. In the USA, depending on the election outcome, we might see progress. The economy is rebounding well, the Covid curve nicely trends down, there increased hurdles to the free movement of goods, services, people and investment, or were fewer riots in the main cities and the alternatively much higher fiscal charges and restricted freedom of operations. election period will be behind us soon. The The post-Covid times will be a treacherous environment. Swiss Amcham will be ready House of Representative will likely remain to inform on such matters, to gather the members to act in their best common interest under Democratic control. Majority in the and to directly influence politicians and the government, and to work with the media. Senate can go either way. And the race to For these tasks, we need the support of all companies concerned, more than ever. the White House is far from decided. But in You will hopefully remain a part of this group, jointly financing these very important spite of the alarmist press, I expect regular tasks. Swiss Amcham needs you – you need Swiss Amcham! settlement of the election results – albeit with more noise than in other years. And life will Thank you for your kind consideration and your continued support. go on. For more details, please tune in to Swiss TV on Wednesday November 4 from 06:00 to 10:00 where I will comment on the results of the US election (SF1). In Switzerland, we will experience a fall that Swiss Amcham’s favorite carrier will not be as noisy as in the USA, but just as interesting and trendsetting for the future. See article on the right. The Chinese proverb “May you live in interest- ing times” is normally hurled at the enemy, but I would propose to take this proverb Content positively and “enjoy an interesting time”. Business News from the United States ...2 The Chamber & You...........................6/7 Martin Naville Business News from Switzerland ............3 Masthead ..............................................7 CEO Chamber Events ...................................4/5 Chamber Events Plan ..........................8 ★★★★★★ ★★★★★ ★★★★★★ ★★★★★ ★★★★★★ ★★★★★ ★★★★★★ ★★★★★ ★★★★★★ Business News from the United States Investors brace for months pects going forward, according to a survey current account deficit, which measures the of big market swings released by the New York Federal Reserve flow of goods, services and investments Investors are bracing for an extended pe- in the second half of September. Some into and out of the country, jumped 52.9% riod of market volatility as worries over a 10.5% of consumers surveyed said they to USD 170.5 billion last quarter. That was potential resurgence of coronavirus cases had become unemployed between March the highest level since the third quarter of and political uncertainty loom. Market par- and July of this year, up from 2.8% in July 2008. Data for the first quarter was revised ticipants are not expecting the turbulence to 2019 and reaching a series high for the higher to show a USD 111.5 billion shortfall, die down any time soon. VIX futures show survey, which started in March 2014. The instead of USD 104.2 billion as previously that investors are betting that market swings average expected likelihood of becoming reported. Economists had forecast the cur- will persist beyond the November 3 U.S. unemployed also rose to 3.7% in July from rent account gap increasing to USD 157.9 presidential election and into December, 2% a year earlier. Consumers also faced billion in the April-June quarter. reflecting worries about the possibility of more challenges finding new jobs. The share a contested election and concerns that a of people who changed employers dropped U.S. consumer sentiment improves deeply divided government will fail to agree to 4.4% in July from 6.2% a year earlier. in early September on providing more fiscal stimulus to support U.S. consumer sentiment improved in early the U.S. economy. Other possible stumbling U.S. corporate board gender September, according to a survey, which blocks for U.S. stocks include re-escalating diversity lags also showed the upcoming November tensions between the United States and Publicly traded U.S. companies have been presidential election was starting to have China, as well as a potential increase of slow to add minority directors over the past an impact on expectations about future global coronavirus cases that could once five years even as women grabbed a greater economic prospects. The University of again lead to broad economic shutdowns. share of board seats during that period, a Michigan said its consumer sentiment index comprehensive study released in late Sep- rose to 78.9 in the first half of September Federal Reserve starts effort tember shows. Across the Russell 3000, a from a final reading of 74.1 in August. to update bank fair lending rules broad index of U.S. companies, 29% now Economists had forecast the index edging In late September, the Federal Reserve have two or more ethnically diverse direc- up to a reading of 75. kicked off its own effort to update community tors, 7 percentage points more than in 2016, lending standards for banks. The move by according to the new data from Institutional U.S. passenger airline traffic rising, the central bank to solicit input on potential Shareholder Services. By contrast 66% of but still down sharply over 2019 rule changes for the Community Reinvest- those boards now have 2 or more women, U.S. passenger airline traffic continues to ment Act comes after other U.S. bank 27 percentage points more than in 2016. rebound over historic lows after the coro- regulators already put forward separate rule The few minorities who become corporate navirus pandemic, but is still down sharply updates. The Fed is soliciting feedback on directors are then in demand, with 30% of over 2019 levels. The U.S. Transportation how to update the rules to ensure lower- the 817 individual black directors within Department said airlines carried 21.4 million income communities are still supported by the index serving on more than one board, passengers in July, up from 16.5 million in banks while reflecting the ways technology compared to a rate of 19% for the 17,810 June, but still down 73% over July 2019 has changed banking in recent years. The white directors counted for the study. Top levels. proposed rules would expand the act and asset managers have previously focused more of their diversity efforts on gender, not clarify the aspects of the act that support Citigroup’s Fraser to be first woman race, although that has begun to change. minority depository institutions, community CEO of Wall Street bank development financial institutions, women- Minority business leaders have long urged Citigroup named consumer banking head owned financial institutions and low-income boards to seek candidates from nontradi- Jane Fraser as its next chief executive, mak- credit unions.
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