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Tornado Fast Facts – Occurrences the Following Identifies Past

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Tornado Fast Facts – Occurrences the Following Identifies Past Tri-County Multi-Jurisdictional Natural Hazards Mitigation Plan 3.4.1 TAZEWELL COUNTY HAZARD PROFILE The following identifies past occurrences of tornadoes; details the severity or extent of each event (if known); identifies the locations potentially affected; and estimates the likelihood of future occurrences. When have tornadoes occurred previously? What is the extent of these previous tornadoes? Figure 123, located at the end of this subsection, summarizes the previous occurrences as well as the extent or magnitude of tornado events recorded in Tazewell County. NOAA’s Storm Events Database, NOAAs Storm Data Publications, NOAA’s Storm Tornado Fast Facts – Occurrences Prediction Center and the NWS Number of Tornadoes Reported (1950 – 2017): 61 Weather Forecast Office in Lincoln have documented 61 occurrences Highest F-Scale Rating Recorded: EF4 (November 17, 2013) of tornadoes in Tazewell County Most Likely Month for Tornadoes to Occur: May between 1950 and 2017. In Most Likely Time for Tornadoes to Occur: Afternoon / Early Evening comparison, there have been 2,199 tornadoes statewide between 1950 Average Length of a Tornado: 2.75 miles and 2012 according to the most Average Width of a Tornado: 121 yards recent Illinois Natural Hazard Average Damage Pathway of a Tornado: 0.19 sq. mi. Mitigation Plan. Longest Tornado Path in the County: 21.1 miles (F3 May 13, 1995) During the process of collecting Widest Tornado Path in the County: 880 yards (F3 May 13, 1995 & EF4 November 17, 2013) and verifying the tornado data used in this updated Plan, discrepancies were identified in the existing tornado information databases. Discussions were immediately conducted with Chris Miller, Warning Coordination Meteorologist with the NWS Weather Forecast Office in Lincoln to verify tornado coordinates so that these discrepancies could be corrected or clarified. Consequently, this NHMP has the most accurate information on tornadoes in the Tri-County area. If the reader compares the tornado information in this Plan with other databases, they may encounter the same discrepancies until these databases are formally corrected. Figure 124 charts the reported occurrences of tornadoes by magnitude. Of the 61 reported occurrences there was: one – EF4, four – F3s, nine – F2s, four – EF2s, fourteen – F1s, two – EF1s, twenty-four – F0s, and three – EF0s. Figure 125 charts the reported tornadoes by month. Of the 61 events, 32 (52%) took place in May and June making this the peak period for tornadoes in Tazewell County. Of those 32 events, 20 (62.5%) occurred during May making this the peak month for tornadoes. In comparison, 1,457 of the 2,199 tornadoes (66%) recorded in Illinois since 1950 took place in April, May and June. September 2019 Risk Assessment 3-305 Tri-County Multi-Jurisdictional Natural Hazards Mitigation Plan Figure 124 Graph: Tornadoes by Magnitude Tazewell County: 1950 – 2017 27 24 21 18 15 12 9 Number of Tornadoes Number 6 3 0 EF0 F0 EF1 F1EF2 F2 EF3 F3 EF4 F4 EF5 F5 Magnitude (EF/F-Scale #) Figure 125 Graph: Tornadoes by Month Tazewell County:1950 – 2017 22 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 Number of Events Number 6 4 2 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Month Figure 126 charts the reported tornadoes by hour. Approximately 85% of all tornadoes occurred during the p.m. hours, with 31 of the p.m. events (60%) taking place between 2 p.m. and 7 p.m. In comparison, more than half of all Illinois tornadoes occur between 3 p.m. and 7 p.m. The tornadoes that have impacted Tazewell County have varied from 0.1 miles to 21.1miles in length and from 10 yards to 880 yards in width. The average length of a tornado in Tazewell County is 2.75 miles and the average width is 121 yards (0.069 miles). September 2019 Risk Assessment 3-306 Tri-County Multi-Jurisdictional Natural Hazards Mitigation Plan Figure 126 Graph: Tornadoes by Hour Tazewell County: 1950 – 2017 12 10 8 6 of Events Number 4 2 0 Hour Figures 127, 128 and 129 shows the pathway of each reported tornado by F/EF rating. The numbers by each tornado correspond with the tornado description in Figure 123. Records indicate that most of these tornadoes generally moved from southwest to northeast across the County. Unlike other natural hazards (i.e., severe winter storms, drought and excessive heat), tornadoes impact a relatively small area. Typically, the area impacted by a tornado is less than four square miles. In Tazewell County, the average damage pathway or area impacted by a tornado is 0.19 square miles. The longest and widest tornado recorded in Tazewell County occurred on May 13, 1995. This F3 tornado, measuring 25.0 miles in length and 880 yards in width, touched down in Mason County north of Goofy Ridge in Sand Ridge State Park and traveled east-northeast into Tazewell County before lifting off east of Tremont. The tornado was on the ground in Tazewell County for approximately 21.1 miles. The damage pathway of this tornado covered 12.5 square miles, with approximately 10.5 square miles occurring in Tazewell County. The EF4 tornado that occurred on November 17, 2013 also measured 880 yards wide, tying with the May 13, 1995 F3 tornado for the widest tornado recorded in Tazewell County. What locations are affected by tornadoes? Tornadoes have the potential to affect the entire County. All of the participating municipalities have had reported occurrences of tornadoes within their corporate limits. The 2013 Illinois Natural Hazard Mitigation Plan prepared by IEMA classifies Tazewell County’s hazard rating for tornadoes as “high.” September 2019 Risk Assessment 3-307 Tri-County Multi-Jurisdictional Natural Hazards Mitigation Plan Figure 127 F0 & EF0 Tornado Touchdowns in Tazewell County September 2019 Risk Assessment 3-308 Tri-County Multi-Jurisdictional Natural Hazards Mitigation Plan Figure 128 F1 & EF1 Tornado Touchdowns in Tazewell County September 2019 Risk Assessment 3-309 Tri-County Multi-Jurisdictional Natural Hazards Mitigation Plan Figure 129 F2 – F4 & EF2 – EF4 Tornado Touchdowns in Tazewell County September 2019 Risk Assessment 3-310 Tri-County Multi-Jurisdictional Natural Hazards Mitigation Plan What is the probability of future tornadoes occurring? Tazewell County has had 61 verified occurrences of tornadoes between 1950 and 2017. With 61 tornadoes over the past 68 years, the probability or likelihood that a tornado will touchdown somewhere in the County in any given year is approximately 90%. There were 12 years over the last 68 years where more than one tornado occurred. This indicates that the probability that more than one tornado may occur during any given year within the County is approximately 18%. HAZARD VULNERABILITY The following describes the vulnerability to participating jurisdictions, identifies the impacts on public health and property (if known) and estimates the potential impacts on public health and safety as well as buildings, infrastructure and critical facilities from tornadoes. Are the participating jurisdictions vulnerable to tornadoes? Yes. All of Tazewell County is vulnerable to the dangers presented by tornadoes. According to NOAA’s Storm Events Database and the NWS Weather Forecast Office in Lincoln, a majority of the tornadoes have touched down or passed through the northern and central portions of the County. Since 2008, 10 tornadoes have been recorded in Tazewell County. All of the participating municipalities have had a tornado touch down or pass through their municipal boundaries. Figure 130 lists the verified tornadoes that have touched down in or near or passed through each participating municipality. Figure 130 Verified Tornadoes in or Near Participating Municipalities – Tazewell County Participating Number of Year Municipality Verified Touched Down/Passed Through Touched Down/Passed Near Tornadoes Municipality Municipality East Peoria 7 1956, 1965, 1980, 1990, 1994, --- 2004, 2013 Morton 8 1973, 1976, 1998, 2003 1974, 1994, 2003, 2006 Pekin 7 1955, 1973, 1990, 2013 1981, 1995, 2003 Tremont 2 1995 1981 Washington 8 1956, 2004, 2013 1967, 2003, 2003, 2003, 2010 In terms of unincorporated areas vulnerable to tornadoes, Groveland and the Mackinaw River State Fish and Wildlife Area have had more tornadoes touch down in or near their vicinity than any other area. Figure 131 details the verified tornadoes that have touched down in or near unincorporated areas of Tazewell County. September 2019 Risk Assessment 3-311 Tri-County Multi-Jurisdictional Natural Hazards Mitigation Plan Figure 131 Verified Tornadoes in or near Unincorporated Areas of Tazewell County Unincorporated Number of Year Area Verified Touched Down/Passed Touched Down/Passed Tornadoes Through Unincorporated Near Unincorporated Area Area Groveland 3 1998, 2003 1960 Lilly 2 --- 2008, 2015 Mackinaw River SF&WA 3 2008 2008, 2015 Midway 1 1973 --- Parkland 1 --- 2000 Pekin Lake 1 1960 --- Powerton Generation Station 2 1994 2003 Talbott 2 --- 1972, 1990 Wadell Airport 1 1990 --- What impacts resulted from the recorded tornadoes? Data obtained from NOAA’s Storm Events Database, NOAAs Storm Data Publications, NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center and the NWS Weather Forecast Office in Lincoln indicates that between 1950 and 2017, 34 of the 61 tornadoes caused $978 million in property Tornado Fast Facts – Impacts/Risk damages and $75,500 in crop damages. Tornado Impacts Included in the property damage total is Total Property Damage: $978,130,000 $955 million in damages sustained as a Infrastructure/Critical Facilities Damage*: n/a result of the November 17, 2013 EF2 Total Crop Damage: $75,500 Injuries: 172 tornado in Pekin ($45 million) and the EF4 Fatalities: 3 tornado that devastated portion of East Tornado Risk/Vulnerability to: Peoria ($110 million) and Washington Public Health & Safety – Rural Areas: Low to ($800 million). Medium Public Health & Safety – Municipalities: High Ten of the tornadoes have property damage Buildings/Infrastructure/Critical Facilities – Rural totals of at least $1 million.
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