Marine with 2nd Low Altitude Air Defense Battalion Counter–Unmanned Aerial Systems Detachment, attached to Special Purpose Marine Air-Ground Task Force Crisis Response–Central Command, conducts functions check on Mine Resistant Ambush Protected vehicle, Southwest Asia, February 17, 2019 (U.S. Marine Corps/Jack C. Howell) n On War, Carl von Clausewitz intro- duces readers to widely recognized Clausewitz’s I axioms such as how the simplest things become hard in war and how the fog and friction of war transform Wondrous Yet minor difficulties into major, nearly insurmountable obstacles. Within many of these axioms, Clausewitz describes Paradoxical Trinity the nonlinear nature of war. It is, however, the last five paragraphs of his first chapter that holistically describe The Nature of War as a the nature of war as a nonlinear system. His description and understanding of Complex Adaptive System the social dynamics of war give complex meaning to the interaction of various social elements in war, characterizing it By Brian Cole as a complex adaptive system. Political and military leaders and policymakers should be mindful of the nonlinear But in war more than in any other subject we must begin by nature of the social interactions in war. In doing so, they will be more prepared looking at the nature of the whole; for here more than elsewhere and adaptable to unpredicted yet mate- the part and whole must always be thought of together. rial developments throughout a conflict. —CARL VON CLAUSEWITZ Brian Cole is the Director of the Joint Warfare Department at the Marine Corps War College. 42 JPME Today / Clausewitz’s Wondrous Yet Paradoxical Trinity JFQ 96, 1st Quarter 2020 Clausewitz describes war in holistic nonlinear nature of war, explains how his to understand the nature of war, and terms as a paradoxical trinity comprised trinity is a complex adaptive system, and the wondrous trinity can be used as a of the tendencies of the people, the illustrates how complexity theory can be methodological starting point to study- commander and his army, and the gov- applied as a framework to examine his ing post–19th-century war.9 Ultimately, ernment. In war, the most violent of observations of the interactions among war is characterized by a combination social interactions—the three elements of chance, politics, and passion in unity. of the three tendencies of the trinity the Clausewitz’s trinity—interact within with varying influences dependent on and among the other elements to create Clausewitz’s Trinity conditions such as the state of weapons a pattern of behavior that is understand- Clausewitz argues that war is a phe- technology and the historical relation- able yet difficult to predict. Clausewitz nomenon consisting of three central ships between opponents.10 warns that while it is hard enough to un- elements or dominant tendencies. War is an act of violence, of that there derstand the nature of each of the three This triad, or trinity, is a paradoxical is no question, but it is first an extension elements of war’s paradoxical trinity, a relationship “composed of primordial of policy, a rational and purposeful act of “theory that ignores any one of them or violence, hatred, and enmity . chance violent means used to forcefully compel seeks to fix an arbitrary relationship be- and probability . and of its element one’s opponent to its will. The primacy of tween them would conflict with reality to of subordination, as an instrument of politics may start as the most influential such an extent that for this reason alone policy.”4 It is paradoxical because while tendency of war, but the nature of the it would be totally useless.”1 John Miller war is an extension of policy—a ratio- conflict will be determined by the initial and Scott Page echo Clausewitz’s senti- nal tendency—it is propelled at times conditions and the subsequent interac- ments by exclaiming that to understand a by primordial violence and hatred— tion of the trinity’s three elements.11 The complex adaptive system, we must know irrational tendencies—or by chance. combatants’ subordination of rational both the nature of each element and the Primordial violence is the blind natural policy may be usurped by chance and meaning of their interactions.2 force, whereas the subordinated nature luck, or by the primordial tendencies of Clausewitz uses still-contemporary of war as a political tool is what makes hatred and enmity. ideas and terms in his manuscript, but it subject to pure reason, and chance is his descriptions of the trinity, its at- always a factor under extremely violent Three Levels of the Trinity tributes, and its emergent behavior are and dangerous conditions.5 Each of Thomas Waldman establishes a typol- what complexity theory describes as a the three elements are “manifested in ogy for the trinity’s elements. The complex adaptive system. Complexity a corresponding subject within society: typology is defined as the objective, theory was originally developed for the respectively, the people, the commander subjective, and contextual levels of the natural sciences, but social scientists find and his army, and the government.”6 trinity. Passion, chance, and politics it useful to understand social systems. Clausewitz’s trinity is a compressed constitute the primary or objective Complexity theory provides a framework concept of a number of central ideas trinity. The primary trinity is manifested to help us understand the root causes that are integrated by a logic of inter- into the societal elements of the people, of phenomena—not replace traditional acting contrasts.7 The trinity is a social the commander and his army, and the theories—and to help us understand the system that exhibits complex interac- government, respectively. The societal nature of war. tions and adaptive, emergent behavior. elements, Waldman explains, make Modern military strategists, com- The system is sensitive to initial condi- up the secondary or subjective trinity, manders, and staff officers must be tions, and chance and luck can always whereas context constitutes a third level. familiar with the abstract conception of alter the system’s behavior in unpredict- Context is not a trinity, but it is the war and be willing to release the con- able ways. conditions under which the other two crete, tangible tactics for the operators. levels of the trinity exist and interact. War must be considered as a whole or, The Nature of War Is Constant The trinity as a system is highly sensi- as Michael Handel writes, a gestalt, to Clausewitz wrote On War in a time tive to its conditions, and thus context appreciate the complexity and nonlin- when wars were interstate conflicts is vital to explaining changes that occur ear nature of war. Handel argues that fought by clearly defined armies. War at the secondary level and provides an “because of its infinite complexity and was confined to battlefields and uni- understanding of the inherent flexibility non-linear nature, war can only be under- formed combatants. The characteristics of the trinity.12 stood as an organic whole, not as a mere of war have changed since the 19th The third level, context, influences compendium of various elements.”3 century, but its nature has not. It is con- the system the most. Context provides This article provides an overview of structive to challenge the relevance of the setting in which “the three primary Clausewitz’s wondrous yet paradoxical Clausewitz to modern war, and doing tendencies—passion, chance, and poli- trinity, complexity theory, and complex so forces one to revisit his nonlinear tics—are manifested in reality through adaptive systems. In the end, it revisits theories of war.8 The first book in On secondary level subjects.”13 Clausewitz Clausewitz’s paradoxical trinity and the War is a conceptual framework created explains context by showing that JFQ 96, 1st Quarter 2020 Cole 43 historically, societies tend to conduct wars to the economic theory of increasing Aggregation of Agents. A complex in their own particular ways, using differ- returns, making it difficult to predict adaptive system is an aggregation of ent methods and pursuing different aims its behavior. The theory of increasing agents within a given environment. The than their opponents.14 He describes con- returns relies on a principle of inde- modeler decides what to focus on and text in the opening sentence of his section terminacy and accounting for random what to avoid. Aggregation is a build- on the trinity, writing, “War is more than events affecting markets. The properties ing block approach in which aggregates a true chameleon that slightly adapts of complex systems also make them act like agents at a higher level, or as its characteristics to the given case.”15 capable of self-organizing and adapting meta-agents. Modeling is an art form, Waldman argues that Clausewitz uses without a central authority. and what is aggregated is dependent the chameleon to demonstrate how war Complex Adaptive Systems. Complex on what a modeler wishes to examine. is connected to its surroundings.16 Justin systems are found in many places. In the Aggregation is also about the actions of a Kelly and Mike Brennan write that war natural world, such systems include the complex adaptive system. In aggregation, must be viewed as a complex system that brain, immune systems, ecologies, cells, a modeler can identify and understand a emerges from “infinitely small changes developing embryos, and ant colonies. In system’s emergent behavior as a whole, in its environment, truly ‘more than a the human world, they include cultural, which is commonly different than the chameleon.’”17 Initial conditions are too economic, and social systems such as behavior of the individual agent. varied to apply a single methodology on political parties or scientific communities.