Population, Poverty, and Vulnerability
POPULATION, POVERTY, AND VULNERABILITY: MITIGATING THE EFFECTS OF NATURAL DISASTERS
By George Martine and Jose Miguel Guzman
Abstract
Hurricane Mitch was one of the most destructive natural disasters of recent times, and it exposed the underlying vulnerability of the Central American region, where poverty magnifies the threat of natural hazards. International assistance for national disasters tends to focus on short-term recuperation rather than on long-range prevention. Policymakers need to pay greater attention to the role of population dynamics within necessary prevention efforts. This article analyzes the relationships between demographic dynamics and Hurricane Mitch in Central America, and extracts from that experience lessons that can help reduce vulnerability to natural disasters in the long run. Specifically, it centers on three aspects: How did demographic processes condition the area’s vulnerability prior to Mitch? What are Mitch’s consequences for population dynamics in the short- and long-term? How must population dynamics change in order to mitigate the effects of future natural disasters? Systematic use of such information could help blunt natural-disaster impacts in three important ways: planning of spatial organization, reproductive health needs, and design of adequate information systems.
itch is considered to be the most powerful America is extremely vulnerable. Social factors (high hurricane to have hit Central America and levels of poverty), economic factors (failure to consider Mthe Caribbean in the last two centuries as natural disasters in the location and characteristics of well as one of the most destructive natural disasters of economic activity), and environmental factors recent times. Its passage exposed the underlying (inappropriate land use on steep slopes, deforestation, vulnerability of this region and threatened the very erosion, inappropriate location of settlements, and fabric of the societies affected. Not only did it test occupation of watersheds) all compound this these societies’ capacity to face critical issues, but it vulnerability (SICA, 1999). also brought into question their social, economic, and Given this blend of natural and social conditions political structures. in the region, the recurrence of Mitch-type events Mitch, however, was not an isolated incident. can be expected in Central America and the Caribbean. Central America and the Caribbean are perennially Unfortunately, global attention to such threats tends exposed to natural hazards of a physical, geological, to wane quickly, with international assistance focusing or meteorological nature. Table 1 portrays the deaths principally on issues of short-term recuperation rather resulting from the region’s recent vulnerabilities and than on medium- and long-range prevention. A critical various natural hazards. During the last 30 years, lesson from past disasters has not yet been put into Central American natural disasters have caused more practice: more effective contributions require a long- than 56 million deaths and $22.45 billion dollars of range preventive approach directed to structural issues economic damage. Such destruction has contributed rather than short-term remedial actions. to the deterioration of the region’s living conditions Within this perspective of longer-range as well as to a reduction in its rates of economic growth prevention, policymakers need to pay greater attention (ECLAC & CCAD, 2002). to the role of population dynamics. It would seem Natural hazards become disasters because Central obvious that demographic factors such as settlement
George Martine is director of the UNFPA Country Support Team for Mexico.
Jose Miguel Guzman is population affairs officer in the CELADE/Population Division of the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) in Santiago, Chile.
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Hurricane Mitch on 27 October 1998
Source: U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
patterns and migration are fundamental to the nature lessons that can help reduce vulnerability to natural and gravity of natural-disaster impacts. Yet these factors disasters in the long run. Specifically, it centers on three are rarely taken into account. Even the UN aspects: How did demographic processes condition International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction1 the area’s vulnerability prior to Mitch? What are Mitch’s paid scant attention to population dynamics in its consequences for population dynamics in the short campaign. True, policymakers and specialists alike and long term? How must population dynamics change routinely assert that population growth and rapid in order to mitigate the effects of future natural urbanization increase the negative effects of natural disasters? occurrences. However, this truism does not lead to As seen from Table 2, every Central American effective action. The relationship among natural country was affected by Mitch. Honduras and disasters and development patterns, population growth, Nicaragua were the worst hit. Although the frame of and spatial distribution has been rarely identified with reference for this article is the entire region, many of clarity. At most, policymakers express a vague wish the illustrations below are taken from Honduras, the for reduced population growth or an end to rural- country most affected by this hurricane. urban migration. This approach is largely ineffective, since the underlying rationales for people’s 1. SOCIO-DEMOGRAPHIC CONDITIONERS demographic behavior tend to be overlooked. OF VULNERABILITY This article (a) analyzes the relationships between demographic dynamics and Hurricane Mitch in The capacity to survive and recover from the effects Central America, and (b) extracts from that experience of a natural disaster is the result of two factors: the
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Table 1: Important Natural Disasters in Central America and the Caribbean Since 1970
Yyear Cdountr Tsype of Hazar Dleath Tota Population Affected
1972 Neicaragua E0arthquak 100,00 400,00
1974 Hionduras H0urricane Fif 70,00 15,00
1976 Geuatemala E0arthquak 203,00 1,200,00
1978 Haonduras, Belize H5.urricane Gret ..
1979 Ddominica H8urricane Davi 3081,00
1979 Dcominican Republic H0uricane David/Frederi 10,40 1,200,00
1980 Hnaiti H0urrican Alle 202 330,00
1982 Naicaragua H9urrican Allet 6...
1986 Eel Salvador E0arthquak 10,10 500,00
1987 Dyominican Republic H30urricane Emil 50,00
1988 Jtamaica H5urricane Gilber 40500,00
1988 Nnicaragua H6urricane Joa 101 185,00
1989 A*ntigua, Guadalupe H6urricane Hugo 50220,00
1991 Ceosta Rica E1arthquak 5019,70
1992 Niicaragua T6sunam 101 13,50
1993 Nticaragua T3ropical Storm Ger 1062,20
1993 Htonduras T3ropical Storm Ger 100 11,00
1995 Nsicaragua H2eavy Rain 331,34
1996 Crosta Rica H6urricane Cesa 2...
1996 Nricaragua H9.urricane Cesa ..
1996 N*icaragua E0ruption Madera Volcano ** 501,55
1998 Dominican Republic, H4urricane George 279 296,63 Haiti
1998 H*onudras, Nicaragua H0urricane Mitch * 109,80 1,300,00
* Also affected Monserrat, Virgin Islands, and Saint Kitts ** Also affected Guatemala, Costa Rica, Belize, and El Salvador *** Ometepe Island (Landslides)
Sources: OPS/OMS (1994); CEPAL (1999); OPS/OMS (2002); NCDC (1999).
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physical magnitude of the disaster in a given area, and the impact of natural disasters can generally be the socioeconomic conditions of individuals or social expressed as follows: economic constraints force the groups living in that area. Vulnerability (the degree to poor to live in precarious homes, made of flimsy, non- which a society or group is threatened by the impact durable materials, on the least-valued plots of land. of natural hazards) is differentiated by social groups in The poor build their shacks on steep hillsides; on almost all natural disasters. Altogether, it is estimated floodplains; in fragile ecosystems and watersheds; and that 90 percent of victims and 75 percent of all on contaminated land, right-of-ways, and other economic damages from natural disasters are in inappropriate areas. Even government housing and developing countries (Thouret & D’Ercole, 1996, p. urban-development policies tend to overlook 409). environmental constraints and lack adequate information As aptly stated by UN Secretary General Kofi for land-use planning. Inappropriate location invites Annan (1999b), “...poverty and population pressure serious social and environmental problems, which are force growing numbers of poor people to live in harm’s aggravated by deforestation as well as by inadequate way—on flood plains, in earthquake-prone zones and management of rainwater and wastes. During disasters, on unstable hillsides.” In Central America, the inadequate services and infrastructure further relationship between socio-economic conditions and complicate survival efforts. Health risks are similarly
Table 2. Population Affected by Hurricane Mitch
Directly Total Total Population Population in Deaths Plus Country Affected (not Population Estimated 31 Shelters Missing in shelters) Affected December 1998
Absolute Numbers:
Honduras 6.17,831 .8. 55,371,36 143,71 6,231,43
Guatemala 504,725 1006,00 7950,00 338 10,945,05
Nicaragua 615,271 3268,26 8567,75 43,01 4,872,55
Costa Rica 5.,411 ... .9. 3,886,22 2
El Salvador 525,864 208,45 3946,91 205 6,092,19
As a Percent of the Total Population (31 December 1998):
Honduras 9..9 .2. 806. 00.22 100.
Guatemala 00.5 19. 64. 00.00 100.
Nicaragua 16.3 78. 127. 00.08 100.
Costa Rica 0..1 ... .0. 00.00 100.
El Salvador 05.9 07. 54. 00.00 100.
Source:Population affected: ECLAC (1999) (Various country reports) Estimated Population: Based on CELADE (1999)
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accentuated. By comparison, the homes of the upper occupancy and utilization of a given territory greatly and middle classes are built with hardier materials on conditions the gravity of natural disasters. Similarly, more stable terrain, and their residents enjoy better varying reproduction patterns among different social services. These classes also have more resources with groups determine the relative size of their families which to rebound from disasters. 2 and, to a certain extent, their levels of poverty, housing In short, poverty is a central component of characteristics, crowding, access to services, infra- vulnerability—a centrality dramatically demonstrated structure, and other elements. These predestine not by Hurricane Mitch. A task force formed by INCAE only these groups’ susceptibility but also their capacity (Instituto Centroamericano de Administración de to handle natural disaster. The following analysis of Empresas) and by Harvard University’s Institute for demographic processes and their relation to International Development concluded that “the vulnerability in the case of Hurricane Mitch will conditions of poverty in Central America are the illustrate this phenomenon. fundamental cause of their vulnerability in the face of The three Central American countries most natural disasters” (Hernández, 1999, p. 8). In Nicaragua, affected by Mitch are, coincidentally, those Hurricane Mitch most significantly affected those characterized by the highest fertility levels in the region: municipalities with the highest levels of poverty, Honduras, Guatemala, and Nicaragua. However, especially in rural zones (UNDP, 1998). In Guatemala, fertility levels among social groups differ significantly Vice President Luis Flores Asturias affirmed that “the in each of these countries, with the poorest sectors tragedy highlighted accumulated needs and showing much higher levels. These fertility patterns deficiencies as well as shoddy handling” (Hernández, reflect the fact that the poorest have the least capacity 1999, p. 8). And in Honduras, although the damage to exercise their reproductive preferences. As shown spread to all social strata, “there is no doubt that the in Table 3, surveys conducted among the female greatest number of victims emerged from the most population show that women from the lowest humble communities such as those of the Municipality socioeconomic level in Honduras have twice as many of Choloma, La Lima and El Progreso, its towns and children as they would like.3 Their inability to exercise banana fields” (Hernández, 1999, p. 8). their reproductive rights is the starting point for a In turn, demographic processes impact the vicious circle centered on the intergenerational makeup and persistence of poverty. Population growth transmission of poverty. Poor women have limited and distribution result from the interaction between information and resources to limit the number of births. three variables: fertility, mortality, and migration. Levels They also tend to have less power in decision-making and patterns of these three variables together define a on many topics, including sexuality and reproduction. region’s vulnerability, including the size and spatial Forced to rear many children, these women have location of population in given social and economic greater difficulty in obtaining paid employment, contexts. Even though the path of natural phenomena leading to a lower per capita income for their families. such as tropical storms is difficult to anticipate, the Their children have fewer educational opportunities,
Table 3. Honduras: Ideal Number of Children4 and Total Fertility Rate According to Socio-Economic Level
S*ocio-economic level TnFR Iedeal number of childre Differenc
L9ow 64. 35. 3.
M1iddle 49. 22. 1.
H7igh 27. 20. 0.
*TFR: Total Fertility Rate Source: ENESF (1996)
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and when these children begin their sexual life—often these provinces did not endure the worst of Hurricane at an early age—they too will have little reproductive Mitch, they did—according to an ECLAC report health information or resources, thus reinitiating the (1999a), have the greatest number of people directly or poverty-high birth rate cycle. indirectly affected by Mitch. Mortality levels also clearly differ by Migration currents in Central America have also socioeconomic strata. According to the 1996 ENESF varied by gender. Women primarily migrate to urban Survey in Honduras, a child’s probability of dying centers, while men move proportionately more to before the age of five is 64 per 1,000 in strata defined agricultural areas. The sweatshop manufacturing industry as “low,” compared to 38 per 1,000 in children in the concentrated in San Pedro Sula and Puerto Cortés has “high” strata. These statistics demonstrate that the particularly attracted female labor. These migration factors behind differential mortality prior to Mitch— patterns are consonant with those repeatedly observed malnutrition, lack of access to services, poor water and throughout Latin America during the last 50 years. sanitation, and so forth—also condition differential Rural-urban migration results from factors of both susceptibility to disaster. expulsion and attraction. In rural areas, agricultural But perhaps the most visible and direct relation demand for workers does not keep up with between demographic dynamics, poverty, and demographic growth. Despite some migration to vulnerability relates to patterns of spatial redistribution frontier areas, rural areas have a surplus of workers. of the population. Rural-urban migration and urban Concomitantly, cities attract migrants with a greater growth, which partly result from poverty, also aggravate relative availability of jobs (whether real or perceived), and heighten the impact of natural disasters. Over the higher incomes, and easier access to services. The last decades, all Central American countries have concentration of population in the cities has resulted experienced migration that has increasingly in a scarcity of housing alternatives for migrants. As concentrated their populations in urban areas, capricious market factors determine spatial utilization particularly in the most important cities. In Honduras, and access to land, cities cannot accommodate the during the five years leading to that country’s 1988 throng of recently arrived poor migrants. Considering census, a majority of its internal migrants went to the the probability that rural-urban (as well urban-to- northern and north-central part of the country—the urban) migration will continue to increase, urban provinces of Cortés and Francisco Morazán. Although marginality can be expected to grow significantly.
Figure 1. Theoretical Effects of Disasters on Mortality
Deaths directly caused by Hurricane Mitch Direct effects Short Term: Deaths resulting from increases in actue respiratory, infectious, Mortality effects or parasitic diseases attributable to Mitch, whether in shelters or in the population at-large. Indirect effects
Medium Term: Deaths resulting from the deterioration of living conditions and increasing vulnerability (poverty, malnutrition, deterioration of basic services, etc.) which affect health levels.
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Vulnerability will also expand unless specific measures Effects on demographic variables are taken to counter current trends. According to an ECLAC report on Mitch’s effects, Mortality Honduras’ capital, Tegucigalpa, faces the same situation Figure 1 shows the theoretical effects of Hurricane as other Latin American cities, where there is Mitch on total mortality rates in Honduras. The only concrete data available refer to direct effects. If we add inappropriate territorial occupation and the number declared missing to that of the confirmed utilization with a lack of regulations for urban dead, Mitch caused an estimated total of 13,567 deaths. organization and construction. These factors, These figures imply a 42 percent increase in the coupled with urban growth and a high incidence number of deaths for the year, using as a baseline the of poverty, result in conditions which could imply total number of deaths expected in the country under that a significant part of the population of this normal circumstances in 1998 (32,000). A similar city may be exposed to serious risks as impact on total deaths (42 percent) may be applied to experienced with Hurricane Mitch (ECLAC, the crude death rate (i.e. the number of deaths per 1999a). 1,000 population in a year). The mortality rate, however, was greater in some of the larger provinces such as 2. SOCIO-DEMOGRAPHIC E FFECTS OF Gracias a Dios and the Islas de la Bahia, where deaths HURRICANE M ITCH caused by Mitch exceeded the average annual death total by close to 400 percent. A series of questions related to the specific effects Only fragmentary data are available in relation to of Mitch on the socio-demographic dynamics of the short-term indirect effects on Honduran mortality—that is, region are worth raising. How has Mitch impacted deaths resulting from hurricane-related deterioration demographic trends and levels of mortality, fertility, of health conditions. Health authorities confirm an and migration? How are the dynamics of the increase in infectious and respiratory diseases, which demographic transition affected in the short and long suggests a likely increase in the number of deaths term? How has reproductive health been affected? To (particularly if, as can be expected, the lethality levels what extent do demographic factors determine a poor of these diseases increased). These factors could have population’s level of vulnerability to disasters? a particularly severe impact on children and the elderly. Quantifying the demographic effects of disasters Although vital statistics do not reveal the magnitude is a complex task. The effects may be direct or indirect, of these short-term effects, figures provided by the immediate or longer-term. Long-term effects may Honduran Ministry of Health show a 20 percent be difficult to perceive and may themselves result from increase in the incidence of diarrhea in the under-15 interaction between demographic variables and a population as well as epidemic outbreaks of number of other factors also affected by disasters, such leptospirosis and conjunctivitis, skin diseases, and acute as changes in the structure of production, in respiratory infections (Ayes Cerna, 1999). No reliable infrastructure, in communications, or in access to basic quantitative data exists, however, regarding the extent services. The effects of these changes may go in of the latter epidemics. Residual after-effects of a more different directions, depending on the nature and permanent nature can also be expected because of effectiveness of actions taken following the disaster. lack of access to drinking water and sanitation as well In addition, concrete data (beyond the number as the deterioration of conditions in health centers. dead or missing due to Mitch) are difficult to obtain. Indirect medium-term effects of Mitch on Honduras The lack of baseline information hinders the have been even more difficult to identify. Nevertheless, establishment of detailed and reliable estimates of direct the magnitude and direction of these effects likely or indirect and short- or long-term effects. In spite of depend on whether or not the damage has motivated such difficulties, a simple model of possible relations (a) the reactivation of economic activity, and (b) the and effects of Hurricane Mitch on demographic reduction of social and economic vulnerability in variables—and on population dynamics in general— important segments of the population. Levels of provides interesting leads. The exercise in this case international assistance and the post-Mitch expansion focuses on Honduras. (see page 62 for a map of of sectors such as the construction industry (as well as Honduras’d departments.) the intensification of anti-poverty actions) impact on
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medium-term effects. These effects also depend on deterioration of basic services such as garbage removal, the extent to which the Honduran government breakdowns in already precarious sewage facilities, and transforms difficulties into opportunities through its limited effectiveness of the health system—opened political and economic policies. In the second meeting the door for the resurgence of communicable diseases of the Consultative Group for the Reconstruction and (such as cholera, dengue, and malaria) that had Transformation of Central America (Stockholm previously been held in check. However, the Statement, 1999), the international community of promotion of the reconstruction process in general donors committed $9 billion to the reconstruction and in the health sector in particular as well as the process (Stockholm Declaration, 1999). Reconstruction recovery of economic activities suggest that Mitch will plans have focused primarily on: (1) the reactivation affect the epidemiological transition less severely in of the economy, (2) the alleviation of poverty, (3) the the medium and long term. Moreover, Honduran rational utilization of natural resources and protection health programs for emergencies are generally more of the environment, and (4) the promotion of local effective then in the past and include efforts to prevent initiatives that can help mitigate vulnerability to natural epidemics. disasters.5 No reliable or detailed information is available Hurricane Mitch likely caused a temporary relating the mortality caused by Mitch to different reversal in Honduras’ epidemiological transition. In socioeconomic strata of the Honduran population. the period immediately following Mitch, several Nevertheless, two pieces of evidence indicate that the factors—including interruption in the water supply, poor experienced the greatest mortality levels. First,
Figure 2. Relative Risk of Being Affected by Hurricane Mitch, San Pedro Sula, Honduras, 1999 (Heads of Households)
Source: Calculations based on data from DIEM (1999).
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observations carried out on the effects of the hurricane methods available. Changes in the assignment of show that, in both San Pedro Sula and Tegucigalpa, priorities in national ministries of health (such as the areas with the greatest number of missing and dead prioritizing certain infectious and respiratory diseases are also environmentally unsafe areas (susceptible to at the expense of other areas) also play a role. landslides, floods, and other disasters) that house the Investments in infrastructure are often emphasized over cities’ poorest inhabitants (ECLAC, 1999a). direct preventive actions, given the imperative need Second, the composition of the population in to reconstruct health centers after the disaster. shelters can be taken as a valid indicator of A significant portion of the population may face vulnerability. Data from shelter censuses in San Pedro severe difficulties in accessing contraceptive methods Sula and other surveys carried out by city authorities and information in the post-disaster period. Given are broken down by education level. As Figure 2 that the poorest segments of the population rely most displays, the population with no education at all had a on the public services hardest hit by the emergency, relative risk of being affected by Mitch some 80 times reproductive health services can suffer severe greater than in the population from the highest deterioration exactly in those districts where they are educational levels. A huge difference in relative risk most needed. In the specific case of family planning, was also found between households headed by persons limited access to contraceptive methods (leading to with no education at all and those with at least their non-use or to the temporary use of ineffective elementary education. The former category methods) may produce an increase in unwanted concentrates the most vulnerable segment because of pregnancies or in abortions. In addition, delays are abject poverty, the lack of access to information, and inevitable in the implementation of new programs, the difficulty of processing available information. both in education and in services. If all these possibilities occur, fertility or the number of abortions Impacts on Reproductive Health in the region would increase. Unprotected sexual Natural disasters heighten pre-existing situations relations could also lead to an increase in STDs. This of precariousness and vulnerability. In the case of relates in part to the increase in rape cases, a problem reproductive health, they can accentuate reproductive- that tends to increase under the promiscuous health needs by intensifying the practical inability of conditions and lack of controls prevailing in times of many couples and individuals to exercise their disaster.6 reproductive rights. Disasters have an immediate effect Mitch’s actual effects on fertility have to be viewed on health conditions, on access to health services in in different time frames. In the short term, crisis and general, and on reproductive health in particular disaster analyses show that the immediate impact is because of several dynamics: usually a decrease in the rate of pregnancies and fertility—despite the above-mentioned breakdown in • Deterioration of health services, infrastructure, access to contraception and information. In the wake equipment, medical drugs, and medical materials of a natural disaster, marriages are often postponed or as a consequence of the disaster; cancelled and temporary or permanent separations • Difficulty in access to services as a direct consequence increase; there is also temporary delay in pregnancies of the disaster and its impact on communications because of less-frequent sexual relations. There could and transportation; also be an increase in amenorrhea (cessation of • A shift in medical priorities away from reproductive mensturation in women of child-bearing years) caused health services; and by stress or prolonged malnutrition (see Curson, • An increase in sexual abuse, in sexually transmitted 1989), although there is no concrete evidence to diseases (STDs), and in unwanted pregnancies demonstrate this in the present case. because of conditions and lack of privacy in shelters. The magnitude of these changes not only relates to the size of the affected population but also to the The factors that aggravate such negative effects duration of the crisis. Mitch likely had a relatively include: (1) the extent of the disaster itself in each minor short-term impact on fertility during the height country or region; (2) the level of impact on health of the crisis, given the relatively brief duration of its service infrastructure; (3) the countries’ financial effects on housing arrangements and family separations limitations; (4) the population’s level of dependency as well as the fairly rapid recovery of economic activities 7 on public services; and (5) the types of contraceptive for the majority of the affected population. Effects
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Figure 3. Percentage of Expected Population Growth in Honduras for 1998 which Failed to Occur Due to Excess Mortality Caused by Hurricane Mitch
Source: Calculations based on the estimated numbers of deaths per municipality (ECLAC, 1999) and population projections by Honduras/UNFPA (1996).
would only be noticed, if at all, in a reduction in births social crisis because of delayed reconstruction efforts during the months of July and August 1999. As of this and the economic difficulties of the country could writing, there are no monthly data available that can continue to depress the birth rate. But the deterioration be used to verify this. of reproductive-health services and limited access to There are also medium-term effects. Just as fertility services could lead to an increase of non-desired births. tends to decrease in times of crisis, it also tends to Recent data from the a 2001 survey show that fertility increase with recovery. Experiences of war, famine, for the period 1999-2001 was a little higher than and other disasters clearly demonstrate this trend. This projected (Secretaría de Salud, ASHONPLAFA & increase is explained by the recovery of postponed CDC, 2002). pregnancies, by the tendency of couples to replace In short, tracing the real effects of natural disasters lost children, and by the increase in marriages such as Mitch on reproductive health and on fertility previously delayed or occurring as a result of the involves reviewing a complex array of factors in optimism which is often displayed some time after different time sequences that would need to be the crisis. However, in evaluating these effects, two analyzed in depth through a detailed field survey. It is factors must be considered. First, other natural disasters clear that pre-existing situations of precariousness and and socioeconomic crises affect the daily lives of most vulnerability are heightened as a result of disasters. of the region’s inhabitants. Therefore, medium-term Sexual and reproductive behavior undergo abrupt effects of Mitch could be conflated with those coming alterations. Access to reproductive health services from other events. Second, the prolongation of the deteriorates noticeably. Untying the many threads of
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causality in this process, especially at the aggregate growth rate of the population and the short-term effects level, is a daunting task. of Mitch on mortality.
Impacts on Migration 3. POLICY IMPLICATIONS FOR THE Following a crisis or disaster, the number of people POST-MITCH E RA migrating in search of new opportunities tends to increase. This migration may result from displacement Reconstruction efforts in the post-Mitch era aimed due to the loss of belongings (housing, lands, etc.) at mitigating the impacts of natural disasters and at and the need to find new employment and income. promoting sustainable development in Central America Changes in the structure of production caused by should take demographic processes into closer the effects of Mitch (in agriculture, for example) also consideration than they have in the past. Three aspects resulted in increased migration. In Honduras, although require particular attention for long-range preventive highland subsistence crops fared better, the hurricane actions: spatial redistribution, reproductive health, and devastated banana, coffee, sugar, citric fruits, and other the development of information systems. Potential crops. Roads and warehouses were flooded. In contributions can be divided into three stages: Nicaragua, cereal crops, produced mostly by small prevention, emergency, and recovery. This analysis farmers, were seriously affected, as were main export focuses largely on the prevention phase. crops and cattle ranching. In Guatemala and El Salvador, damage was less serious although Prevention nevertheless important. Altogether, a significant portion Mitch clearly demonstrated the limitations of of the population lost its source of subsistence. These interventions carried out only in a posteriori mode. Even agricultural losses likely resulted in increased rural- though timely actions during and after the crisis were urban migration (ECLAC, 1999b; 1999c; 1999d; 1999e). important, the most critical investments evidently Unfortunately, there is no empirical information concern the prevention phase. In this regard, available to validate these plausible hypotheses, and, policymakers should take proactive actions to plan the unless special surveys are carried out, we will have to spatial distribution of population in order to reduce await the next census in order to determine the extent the effects of future disasters. Actions in the to which Mitch has altered spatial distribution in the reproductive health sector are also critical. Early- region. The same is true with respect to international warning systems and other data collection systems can migration. Although an increase in movement abroad make a significant contribution to reducing a disaster’s has been widely publicized in newspaper accounts, impacts. empirical evidence is still limited.8 Two measures taken by the United States in response to Mitch—the Spatial Distribution and Vulnerability designation of “temporarily protected migrants” due In efforts oriented toward providing a safer future to environmental disasters; and the suspension of for the population of Central America, improved deportations from the United States of illegal citizens planning for the utilization of geographic space can from Guatemala until March 8, 1999—were beneficial contribute to greater sustainability and personal for Central American migrants (Embajada, 1999). security. The spatial location and organization of human activity is a critical determinant of risk in natural Impacts on Population Growth disasters. In order to attain a better balance between Mitch had a significant effect on population growth space, sustainability, and the reduction of vulnerability, in Honduras in 1998. As Figure 3 demonstrates, close planners and policymakers must review traditional to 10 percent of expected growth did not materialize frameworks and integrate a systematic concern with in 1998 due to the effects of Mitch. Some Honduran population-redistribution dynamics into recon- provinces were considerably more affected. Without struction and development efforts. factoring in migration, the departments of Islas de la Stimulating new patterns of spatial organization in Bahía, Gracias a Dios, and Santa Bárbara saw order to reduce vulnerability and to promote longer- population growth reduced by 92 percent, 62 percent, term sustainability requires a proactive and holistic and 40 percent, respectively. At the aggregate level, approach, encompassing demographic, economic, and the long-term impact of Mitch on population growth environmental aspects. Addressing this challenge was probably negligible because of the normally high requires a new conceptual tool, which we call the
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sustainable use of space.9 This approach starts with the inappropriate ways of using and managing natural observation that every country has a population of size resources which damage the physical and biological X, growing at the rate of Y, which has to distribute environment, exposing certain areas and their itself over territory Z. The key question in this context inhabitants to the direct and indirect effects of these is—how can this population (a) be best distributed over events” (Bárcena, 2000). this land area in order to promote sustainability and How can this trend be reverted? Do we have a mitigate vulnerability, while (b) also exploiting the coherent game plan—based on considerations of country’s comparative advantages? The challenge is to vulnerability—that would allow us to change this identify available concrete options for spatial situation? In which directions would we ideally want distribution, evaluate each option’s advantages and to promote growth? What do we know about the “ideal disadvantages, and devise possible instruments for the map” that could help us take a proactive stance to reduce promotion of the most sustainable options. the vulnerability of poor people in Central American As noted earlier, current patterns of population countries? distribution, determined largely by market factors, result Dealing with this issue effectively presents both in poor Central Americans being forced to occupy political and technical difficulties. From a political environmentally hazardous areas. The poor have no standpoint, intervening in land use requires building a choice but to occupy disaster-prone areas such as culture of prevention. Such an intervention would also riverbanks, steep or unstable hillsides, deforested lands involve short-term costs, long-term investments, and and toxic grounds, or environmentally critical land such low political returns that politicians anywhere are loathe as fragile ecosystems or water catchment areas (Hardoy to assume. As UN Secretary General Kofi Annan has & Satterthwaite, 1989). Such location patterns observed, “[b]uilding a culture of prevention is not easy. contribute enormously to the vulnerability of poor While the costs of prevention have to be paid in the people while also endangering the overall population. present, its benefits lie in a distant future. Moreover, the And this vulnerability “is compounded by benefits are not tangible: they are the disasters that did
Figure 4. Urbanization in Honduras, 1950-2030
Source: ECLAC (1997); UN Population Division (1997)
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not happen” (Annan, 1999a). In addition, land planning as landslides, which may result from natural disasters, involves interfering in one of the most volatile and human interventions, or both. Next, settlement and lucrative of speculative markets, thereby inviting development of these high-risk lands must be regulated, confrontation with politically significant economic limited, or even prevented. GIS systems and historical interests. Hence, it will never be easy to convince registers can be used to identify areas subject to flooding, decision-makers to invest in the type of long-term land seismic movements, droughts, landslides, and even the planning required to mitigate the effects of natural recurrence of hurricanes. GIS can also enable researchers disasters. Crisis periods have to be exploited in order to analyze the occupational density of areas at risk, to help build up momentum and public opinion for evaluate the degree of risk involved, and thus measure essential decisions. Progressive segments of society have the relative urgency of population relocation. Obviously, to be informed of the benefits of such decisions as well availability of this information does not guarantee as the costs of not taking a proactive stance. people’s willingness to move from high-risk areas. The Policymakers then must base their prevention plans fact that people continue to settle along the San Andreas on a sound technical platform. A two-step approach is Fault or in Mexico City indicates that other factors such recommended. First, populations at risk must be as economics and tradition will always influence identified. These risks include: sporadic catastrophes residential decisions. such as hurricanes and earthquakes; recurrent events Secondly, in order for population relocation efforts such as droughts and floods; and other problems such to work, viable alternatives for demographic/economic
Aftermath of Mitch: El Salvador
A sign prohibiting construction in an area damaged by Hurricane Mitch in Jose Cecilio del Valle, El Salvador. “Current patterns of population distribution, determined largely by market forces, result in poor Central Americans being forced to occupy environmentally hazardous areas.”
Credit: Jim Stipe, Lutheran World Relief. (Photograph courtesy of Johns Hopkins University Center for Communication Programs.)
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expansion have to be offered. Those areas should be 1996 to 13.4 by the year 2030. (See Table 4.) Central identified that can absorb the people (whether new American urban populations are projected to increase migrants or long-time residents) who would otherwise by an estimated 23 million people over the next 30 seek to reside in vulnerable areas or in protected years. The geographic and physical placement of these ecosystems. This analysis inevitably involves economic additional people (as well as the quality of housing and and political as well as socio-environmental construction) will help determine the region’s future considerations: if population distribution ultimately vulnerability. Should current trends persist—trends depends upon the spatial location of economic activity, marked by the absence of effective land-use planning the reduction of vulnerability and the protection of the in urban areas, the neglect of the needs of the poor, and environment requires an integrated approach to the domination of haphazard market forces—it can development. The growing field of strategic-impact almost be guaranteed that the population of Central America assessment can contribute considerably to this effort. will become increasingly vulnerable to natural threats. In the current economic context, an integrated approach What can be done to prevent this increasing will require public/private/civil-society cooperation in vulnerability? On the one hand, efforts can and should order to exploit a country’s economic advantages without be made to improve living conditions in rural areas. increasing vulnerability and degradation. The state’s role Reducing rural poverty and providing rural dwellers is to orient economic advantages using fiscal with health services (especially in the area of mechanisms and other incentives or disincentives such reproductive health) would lessen the incidence of as zoning, building codes, permits, taxes on vacant areas, undesired fertility and thus the rural population’s rate and fees in order to protect fragile areas, control densities, of growth. Improvements in living conditions for rural and define appropriate land uses. populations would help reduce migration to urban In short, mitigating vulnerability and promoting areas, thereby reducing the intensity of urban growth. sustainability require a proactive approach to the use of Nevertheless, history teaches us that no agricultural or space that combines economic benefits with social and demographic policy is likely to retain population in environmental concerns. Despite challenges, progress rural areas indefinitely, or even to significantly affect can be made primarily in two areas: (a) urban growth, ongoing urbanization trends. and (b) regional development. Each of these dimensions Hence, an analysis of demographic processes and will now be examined briefly. their relation to natural disasters reveals the need to initiate explicit and effective land-use planning in urban areas a) Urbanization and Urban Growth in order to cope with the inevitable: the intensification Despite the intensity of past migration flows, urban of city growth and the tripling of current urban growth is still at an intermediate stage in most of Central population size. America. Urbanization levels remain relatively low by Facing such challenges requires a change in Latin American standards, although they have increased mentality, attitude, and approach. Most disaster-response significantly in recent decades. The proportion of the practices and experiences deal with rural people and total Central American population living in urban areas rural disasters. Now, disaster response must address currently varies between 40 and 55 percent (CELADE, urban needs, with particular attention to the dimensions 1999). More importantly, this proportion is expected to of urban growth and urban concentration. Authorities expand several times during the coming generations. have traditionally resisted urban growth instead of trying In Honduras, for instance, the urban population grew to organize it. Consequently, migrants pressured by the from 28 percent in 1970 to 44 percent in 1996. By the lack of resources and by a speculative land market have year 2030, it is estimated that the country’s urban been forced to occupy the least desirable and least population will have increased to 7.3 million, adequate sites. representing 64 percent of the total population. (See The negative stance of political authorities towards Figure 4.) That is, the number of persons living in urban urban growth—specifically, their perennial attempts to areas in Honduras will likely increase by 4.7 million deny the inevitable nature of urban growth and during the interim. urbanization—has prevented effective solutions and Other countries in the region have experienced contributed to compounding vulnerability. In facing up the same pace of urban growth—a pace that is projected to this challenge, efforts should focus principally on to continue. In Guatemala, for instance, the urban the identification and occupation of new and appropriate population is expected to triple from 4.3 million in localities for migrant occupation. Trying to redress errors
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Table 4. Urban Population, Central America, 1996 and 2030
C6ountry 1099 2t03 Incremen
H2onduras 20,58 78,30 4,71
N6icaragua 29,65 63,25 3,60
C3osta Rica 13,74 40,00 2,26
G5uatemala 47,27 123,43 9,16
E7l Salvador 26,62 69,02 3,39
B2elize 190 273 13
T5otal 143,98 397,26 23,27
Source: UN (1997).
and improve conditions in existing residential areas will setting up land banks for poor urban migrants. These likely prove extremely costly in political and economic agencies could devise medium- and long-range land- terms, and hence relocation may generally be the most use strategies and purchase tracts of land in non- viable option. Focusing on new potential areas for urban hazardous or ecologically fragile areas that would be expansion is also justified by the fact that most urban progressively sold off at reasonable prices to poor urban growth is still to come. Moreover, prosperous and residents and migrants as demand arises. The profits environmentally sound settlements are per se capable of could then be reinvested in further purchases of attracting people from other areas, thereby helping to adequate land tracts. If proven successful, this idea could alleviate problems in existing inadequate settlements. then generate its own political momentum and be Urbanization arguably constitutes an important replicated or taken on by responsible state or local potential ally for sustainability (Martine, 1995; 1999). In agencies. Although this notion may appear order for cities to actually generate these potential revolutionary, it would ultimately be much cheaper advantages, however, authorities must intervene in the than cleaning up increasingly serious disasters. use of space. Policymakers must be proactive about Within the theme of urban planning, policymakers location, concentration, and spatial utilization to give insufficient attention to the issue of density. counteract the market’s haphazard utilization of urban Compact cities, which concentrate population, housing, spaces. and jobs in a relatively reduced space, offer space and Intervening in urban land markets requires energy efficiency. Such cities should, however, be located prioritizing the land needs of the poor (WRI, 1997). in areas that are less vulnerable to the effects of natural Past failures in this area have generated serious economic disasters: otherwise, concentration and density will and environmental costs for cities and countries actually result in greater calamities. Some verticalization throughout the world. A posteriori attempts to resolve of growth (as opposed to the unsustainable American- the problems caused by squatter settlements have much style suburb) can be a boon. Planning for urban space higher social, economic, and environmental costs. The also requires greater emphasis on public transportation current mechanisms that organize land markets—land rather than on the private automobile. The Los Angeles speculation and serendipity—cannot be trusted to pattern of dispersion is unsustainable but is spreading provide social and environmental solutions. Should in such places as Panama and even Managua. (Given they continue to prevail, the next disasters will have the geological frailty of its land area, Managua should progressively more serious consequences than Mitch did. probably not see any new construction.) The recently New initiatives will require ingenuity. For instance, announced partnership between Habitat and the bilateral and multilateral donor agencies may consider Quercus Corporation to develop specialized data
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collection, analysis, management, dissemination, and but have assumed increasing weight over time. Land- use of knowledge on human settlements for use by use legislation, supported by prior acquisition of “urban observatories” highlights how the private sector adjacent lands by the municipality, has encouraged can be marshalled towards proper urban planning in high-density occupation around each axis. These disaster-prone areas (“Habitat joins hands,” 1999). planned axes have also facilitated the implementation Do we have positive examples of cities that work of an innovative public transport system. Special in developing countries? The city of Curitiba in Brazil arrangements have also been made in Curitiba for represents a positive anomaly in terms of urban spatial industrial zoning and for the housing of poor migrants; the latter has, however, had limited success (Martine, 1999).
b) Regional Development Planning at the regional level should also be directed toward favoring more sustainable spatial patterns of economic activity and population distribution both within and between Central American countries. In this case, however, generic lessons and general recommendations are more difficult to derive, since solutions depend on the specificities of resource management and economic activity in each country and region. Moreover, in the context of free trade, spatial planning here has to work together with the private sector and with other segments of society in order to take advantage of each country’s comparative advantage. Ongoing globalization makes this process even more complicated, since it can rapidly alter the nature of comparative advantages and make long-term planning difficult. Central America and Honduras The reconstruction process still underway in Central America obviously must produce a more Source: http://www.freegk.com/worldatlas/ robust economy than that which existed prior to Mitch. honduras.php To succeed, the affected countries will have to undertake a series of measures whose scope transcends planning. Its growth has been regulated along the lines the boundaries of this article, including regional of a master plan drawn up in the 1960s. Different integration. The relatively diminutive scale of the administrators have maintained the continuity of the countries involved suggests the adoption of a common plan, while public participation in its implementation development and reconstruction strategy. The has grown. The key ingredient of the original Curitiba aforementioned Stockholm meeting underlined the Master Plan was the integration of traffic management need to carry out reconstruction and transformation and land use in order to limit concentration in the efforts with a regional focus.10 central city. The idea was to substitute the radial The International Program Forum of the “spokes of a wheel” pattern of urban growth with a International Decade for Natural Disasters Reduction linear one capable of promoting the expansion of (IDNDR, held in July 1999 in Geneva) reached similar commerce, services, and residences away from the conclusions, stressing “the importance of developing center on “structural axes.” Meanwhile, the historical and strengthening regional approaches to disaster center of the city was restored, preserved, and made reduction” (IDNDR, 1999).11 The mitigation of available for pedestrians. Implementation of the plan vulnerability also requires adjustments to the market also focused on physical, cultural, economic, and social model, both in the social and environmental domains. transformation of the city. Explicit “environmental” The market cannot assign value to many environmental issues were not at the forefront of the original plan, goods and lacks the long-term vision required for
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investment in sustainability. Hence, it is the public efficient means to reduce the impact of disasters sector’s duty to orient market mechanisms towards (“Guidelines,” 1994). the sustainable use of space through such measures as infrastructure building, zoning, and provision of c) Reproductive Health, Gender Equity, and incentives. Some entity has to take the long-range Vulnerability approach and try to visualize different scenarios of Promoting improvements in reproductive health spatial organization with the object of maximizing as part of a national strategy can also help reduce economic and environmental advantages of new or medium- and long-range vulnerability to natural ongoing investments. disasters and social inequality.13 Reproductive health The state should be capable of initiating and information, knowledge, and services must be coordinating the implementation of a sustainable provided, especially to the poor. Disasters provide vision of the future, with the instigation, direction, opportunities for international agencies to focus actions and control of civil society. Despite the fact that and detect deficiencies in their reproductive-health globalization and structural adjustment have policies and approaches. questioned the legitimacy of state interventions, the Efforts aimed at the reduction of vulnerability of sustainable use of space requires the active presence Central American societies during the post-Mitch of the state. Its role is not only to preserve period would benefit in a variety of ways from a greater environmental legacies but also to provide an investment in reproductive-health and gender-equity integrated view of the relations between demographic programs. The Cairo and Beijing Summits produced trends, economic activities, and environmental a consensus (expressed in agreements that all Central dimensions. American countries signed) that reproductive health The need for proactive action, particularly from and family planning are basic human rights. Moreover, the state, does not mean a return to the technocratic progress achieved in these areas has important arrogance of the 1960s and 70s. A sustainable future implications for the formation of human capital and and reduced vulnerability depends on the participation thus development. of a variety of social actors. Planning for urban or The lack of family-planning and health services regional space provides rare opportunities for dialogue impacts women most severely, as women frequently aimed at (a) adjusting ideal images and real images, bear full responsibility for all family-related decisions and (b) ensuring that public interests prevail over and concerns, including the economic maintenance private interests. of the household. During emergency situations and/ In this regard, community participation is key. All or disasters such as Hurricane Mitch, such inequities international conferences and meetings (realized within become more acute. the framework of the IDNDR) consider community For these reasons, countries urgently need to take participation important in the prevention, more effective action in the areas of reproductive health preparedness, and recovery stages.12 For example, the and gender equity aimed at allowing both the urban Yokohama Strategy and Plan of Action for a Safer World and rural poor to exercise their reproductive states that: preferences for lesser fertility. As noted earlier, reduced fertility will ease migratory pressure towards the urban Community involvement and ... active partici- centers. pation should be encouraged in order to gain Reproductive health also contributes to the greater insight into the individual and collective improvement of human resources and thus to perception of development and risk, and to have enhanced competitiveness. At the aggregate level, there a clear understanding of the cultural and are clear and empirically proven propositions that organizational characteristics of each society as well reproductive health is likely to contribute to: as of its behaviour and interactions with the physical and natural environment. This knowledge • The health of women and children (or the reduction is of the utmost importance to determine those of maternal and child mortality) through improved things which favor and hinder prevention and family planning and child spacing; this improvement mitigation or encourage or limit the preservation in maternal and child health, in turn, generates of the environment for the development of future savings for society in terms of health services; generations, and in order to find effective and • Planning and regulation of procreation also allows
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Honduras: Departments
Source: http://www.usmission.hn/english/about_u.s/mapawdepartments.htm
families to reduce their intra-family expenditures in a more complex relationship between reproductive and make a greater investment in educational health and development. Women head over one-fifth activities; of all households in Latin America, and the majority • Competitiveness of a country is enhanced through of female heads do not have a stable partner to support improved education for the young and for women; them. In Nicaragua, for example, 35 percent of • Reproductive health contributes to gender equity households are headed by women. The number of and to the empowerment of women, allowing them common-law relationships is greater than formal to become better educated and to participate more marriages (35 percent versus 26 percent), a fact which (and under better conditions) in the labor market; generally translates into greater instability of unions. to decide freely on their reproductive lives; to have During times of crisis and disasters, unstable more opportunities and alternatives in their lives; household compositions can create serious difficulties and to contribute to economic progress according for families in terms of their ability to recover from to their real capabilities. disasters. Furthermore, in these situations, gender inequity becomes even more evident in unstable All these elements are important in terms of unions or female-headed households, placing even improving national and local capabilities to prevent greater demands on women. and mitigate the effects of natural disasters at the family as well as at the national level. However, even if the d) Early Warning Information positive consequences of improved reproductive health During the pre-emergency phase, effective early are clear, their significance may vary in different types warning is the key issue for disaster preparedness of societies. For example, in the Central American (“Guiding Principles,” 1997). The knowledge obtained context, the frequency of unstable marriages results through risk-assessment research makes it possible to
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identify the degree to which different population Emergency programs are vital in helping to overcome groups, mainly those living in poverty, could be the damages caused by natural hazards. In the case of affected by natural hazards. Using this information, a hurricane, such effects should disappear fairly these groups can be informed in time and preventive quickly, given the brevity of the period in which it measures can be taken. affects the population. However, factors related to a Costa Rica, for instance, suffered $222 million in country’s underdevelopment (and to its policies aimed damages as a result of Mitch. Half of its 81 at overcoming disasters) can prolong these effects, municipalities were affected, yet only nine people were particularly in the case of reproductive health. reported missing or dead. Years of preparation for Policymakers should define an a priori natural disasters and the existence of early warning methodology and approach to dealing with systems made the difference. Yet, it is agreed that reproductive health needs in emergency situations. “much more needs to be done” in order to reduce Plans might include: vulnerability in the country, especially with regards to “the location of human settlements” (OPS/OMS, 1999, a) Provision of emergency kits; pp.70-72). b) Studies of conditions in shelters—particularly The population field makes an important Cconcerning women and development of rapid contribution to the reduction of vulnerability through Rresponse in reaction to violence, sexual abuse, and the development and updating of integrated Nneed for services; information systems that can identify vulnerable areas c) Support of NGOs and other community-based or population groups. These systems can also help initiatives working with women in crisis situations. orient migrant settlement patterns in order to lower risks, achieve a more sustainable population The Post-Emergency Phase distribution, and generate useful information for Post-emergency phase actions should concentrate evaluating the effects of disaster-related damage, not only on reconstruction efforts but also on especially on women and children. GIS tools that prevention. Following the difficulties caused and/or combine a cartographic base with demographic and aggravated by the passage of Hurricane Mitch in socio-economic information are thus becoming Central America, policymakers should address essential. Unfortunately, despite the increased reproductive health needs in two specific ways. First, technological development in this field, the case of policymakers should promote efforts to re-establish Mitch shows that the Central America region needs a pre-existing programs as soon as possible, as well as much stronger effort in this respect. (The Appendix to implement new programs whose initiation has been contains a short list of information needs for the delayed by the disaster. This component of post- region’s disaster-planning efforts.) emergency efforts is of the highest importance, given Mitch has also revealed the need to develop that reproductive health is generally not given priority methods to collect, process, and present data related status during the crisis. It would entail working closely to disasters. Such methods could facilitate the analysis with other national and international institutions for of a disaster’s impacts and help provide countries with the recovery of the health sector so that the components adequate data resources, both during the emergency of reproductive health can be integrated and take itself and in the post-emergency phase. Information advantage of the opportunity to renew practices and concerning the effects on people, families, and homes redirect actions where possible. Second, the framework also should be included. The topic of shelters is also of reproductive health actions has to be redefined to currently characterized by a great lack of coordination incorporate into new programs all available knowledge and scientific rigor. on the relation between vulnerability, poverty, and reproductive health. In order to attain this goal, we The Emergency Phase must “strengthen the process of decentralization, so Although Central American governments (with that more egalitarian services directed to the needs of the support of international agencies) have developed the population may be identified, discussed, and programs to face natural disasters, these programs have provided” (UNFPA-Nicaragua, 1999). generally operated only during the actual emergency.
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4. FINAL CONSIDERATIONS ongoing reconstruction process should not limit itself to rebuilding countries with past methods. Hurricane Mitch highlighted the fact that socio- Policymakers have a unique opportunity to develop economic conditions in Central America magnify the regional, national, and local comprehensive strategies threat of natural hazards for hundreds of thousands of aimed at disaster prevention and mitigation. people—especially those living in the most precarious Specific contributions from the population field social and economic conditions. Solutions for reducing could help mitigate the effects of natural disasters. The vulnerability and the impact of natural hazards on the tools of population sciences could help mitigate population are not simple, unilateral, or merely natural-disaster impacts in three important ways: spatial technological.14 Mitch’s consequences constitute an organization, reproductive health, and information invitation to examine the very meaning of development systems. To be effective, these applications must be efforts that are being carried out in this region. The integrated into a broader conception of both the development process and the struggle against poverty.
APPENDIX 1 Studying the Impacts of Natural Disasters: Information Needs and Problems
In the course of this analysis, serious difficulties were encountered in trying to work with the available information concerning Hurricane Mitch’s impact. Some of the problems include:
• Difficulties in evaluating the quality of the basic information on deaths and on affected populations. The information available in relation to number of deaths caused directly by Mitch and to the spatial distribution of the population is so aggregated that it cannot be used for in-depth analysis. Detailed and reliable figures on fatalities as well as numbers affected by specific patterns of settlement and socioeconomic condition are unavailable. Additionally, official statistics present anomalies that are difficult to reconcile. It has been mentioned that “all data should be disaggregated by sex and analyzed by gender before, during, and after emergencies” (Delaney & Shrader, 2000). More research and analytical work should be carried out on the gendered dimensions of impact, loss, and recovery during disasters.
• Lack of coordination in post-Mitch data collection activities. Various entities have carried out census and surveys on shelters, using different methodologies and on different dates. There does not seem to be consensus regarding their reliability.
• Scarce cartographic data prior to and after Mitch. With the exception of San Pedro Sula, which has geographically referenced information, researchers lack cartographic information as well as data on the population itself. This shortcoming causes serious difficulties in defining the affected areas according to conditions of vulnerability. Even in San Pedro Sula, which has a strong municipal statistical office, extensive use has not been made of available data from the demographic point of view.
• Lack of a post-Mitch research strategy that would permit us to quantify the effects on demographic variables. There are no surveys on, for example, post-Mitch migration patterns or on changes in reproductive behavior or the impact of mortality.
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ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The authors wish to thank Ralph Hakkert, Jacques du Guerny, Alain Marcoux, Jorge Campos, Jaime Nadal and Antonieta Surawski for helpful comments. The opinions expressed herein are the sole responsibility of the authors.
NOTES
1 In recognition of the disastrous impact of natural hazards on 7 In the case of Honduras, the country most affected by vulnerable communities, the United Nations General Assembly Hurricane Mitch, the population housed in shelters reached in 1989 proclaimed the International Decade for Natural some 600,000 during the days immediately following Mitch; Disaster Reduction. The IDNDR’s objectives were to reduce three weeks later this figure decreased to 285,000, and by (through concerted international action and appropriate use April 1999 it was estimated at 20,000. of science and technology) the loss of life and property damage (as well as the social and economic disruption) caused by 8 Some authors consider that male migration has increased natural disasters. considerably due to Mitch. Delaney and Shrader (2000) note that “while no hard data exist about the extent of the change, 2 Initial impact of a natural disaster may, in some cases, similarly most interviewees have noted a marked increase.” affect all classes in determined circumstances. Even here, however, the capacity to recover is different due to unequal 9 For additional information on the sustainable use of space, resources available to various socioeconomic groups. see Martine (2001).
3 Comparable patterns also prevail in the other countries of 10 Among the reasons that would justify a regional approach, the region (UNFPA, 1998, pp. 22-23; Nicaragua, 1998, p. 108). the following can be cited: (a) extreme natural phenomena do not respect national boundaries; (b) there are economies 4 Whatever its limitations, “ideal family size” is still the only of scale in attending problems from a regional perspective; (c) indicator generated by reproductive health surveys in Honduras regional initiatives favor coordination between countries on that provides a fairly reliable measure of fertility preferences mitigation and prevention mechanisms; and (d) a regional and of their variations among social groups. approach helps draw attention to issues which are not clearly perceived when viewed at the national level (SICA, 1999). 5 It appears that international efforts have done far less than originally intended in terms of bolstering reconstruction 11 See also International Programme Forum (1999). efforts, especially in regional terms. Bilateral and multilateral donors have focused on specific projects and specific countries, 12 In the case of reconstruction and recovery activities, it has but the overall impact on the reduction of vulnerability and been stressed that “the rationale for community involvement the promotion of regional economic integration has come far or the community-based approach is now well known: it is short of needs. An integrated evaluation of this entire process responsive to local needs, draws on local expertise, builds up and its practical limitations would constitute an important local capacity, is multisectoral and equitable. By contrast, it is contribution to the field. said, ‘top-down’ programmes tend not to reach those worst affected by disaster, can be manipulated by political interests, 6 As Delaney and Shrader (2000) have noted, “Incidents of are often inefficient, usually take a unisectoral approach and familial and sexual violence seem to have decreased immediately do not respond to people’s real needs” (Twigg & Greig, 1999). after the emergency and have steadily increased during the reconstruction phase. Several shelters have reported problems 13 In the case of Nicaragua, UNDP and UNFPA have with increased violence and many have hired security guards developed a project on “Transition of Emergencies towards to combat it. Some temporary shelters in rural areas have also Rehabilitation and Development of the Northern Zone reported an increase in sexual violence as well as coerced Municipalities affected by Hurricane Mitch.” The UNFPA prostitution and promiscuity, particularly among adolescent project component incorporates reproductive-health service girls. Both men and women are victimized by increased rates kits and mobile units for the development of IEC and service of sexual and physical violence in the rehabilitation phase, as promotion activities. During a second stage, UNFPA has given aggression and violence lead to both physical and psychological support to actions related to the human settlement component trauma for all family members.” (UNFPA-Managua, 1999).
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14 “Disaster prevention for the future...must involve issues and that contributes to social well-being and security. It can reflect abilities of sustainable development, environmental no single professional culture, alone, because the natural hazards management, science and technology, commerce and industry, and risks to societies in the coming age will challenge, and and the encouragement of participatory forms of governance call upon, collective abilities” (Final report, 1999).
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Annan, Kofi. (1999b). “Introduction to Secretary General’s ECLAC. (1999b). Nicaragua: Evaluación de los daños ocasionados annual report on the work of the Organization of United por el Huracán Mitch, 1998. Sus implicaciones para el desarrollo Nations, 1999.” Document A/54/1. New York: United económico y social y el medio ambiente (“Nicaragua: Evaluation Nations. of the damage caused by Hurricane Mitch, 1998. Implications for economic and social development and for Ayes Cerca, M. (1999). “La salud en Honduras” (“Health in the environment”). LC/MEX/L.372. Mexico City: ECLAC. Honduras”). PAHO/WHO (April). Tegucigalpa, Honduras. Authors. ECLAC. (1999c). Guatemala: Evaluación de los daños ocasionados por el Huracán Mitch, 1998. Sus implicaciones para el desarrollo Bárcena. Alicia. (2000). “From rapid urbanization to the económico y social y el medio ambiente (“Guatemala: Evaluation consolidation of human settlements in Latin America and of the damage caused by Hurricane Mitch, 1998. the Caribbean: A territorial perspective.” Paper presented Implications for economic and social development and for at the Latin American and Caribbean Regional Preparatory the environment”). LC/MEX/L.370. Mexico City: ECLAC. Conference for the special session of the General Assembly for an overall review and appraisal of the implementation ECLAC. (1999d). El Salvador: Evaluación de los daños ocasionados of the Habitat Agenda, Santiago, Chile, 25-27 October 2000. por el Huracán Mitch, 1998. Sus implicaciones para el desarrollo Mexico City: Economic Commission for Latin America económico y social y el medio ambiente (“El Salvador: Evaluation and the Caribbean (ECLAC) & HABITAT. of the damage caused by Hurricane Mitch, 1998. Implications for economic and social development and for CCAD/SICA/PNUD/PNUMA/CEPAL. (1999). El Huracán the environment”). LC/MEX/L.371. Mexico City: ECLAC. Mitch: Oportunidad de transformación en Centroamérica (“Hurricane Mitch: an opportunity for transformation in ECLAC. (1999e). Costa Rica: Evaluación de los daños ocasionados Central America”). Mexico City: ECLAC. por el Huracán Mitch, 1998. Sus implicaciones para el desarrollo económico y social y el medio ambiente (“Costa Rica. Evaluation Curson, P. (1989). “Introduction.” In J. Clarke, P. Curson, S.L. of the damage caused by Hurricane Mitch, 1998. Kayastha & P. Nag (Eds.), Population and disaster (pages 1- Implications for economic and social development and for 23). London: Institute of British Geographers. the environment”). LC/MEX/L.373. Mexico City: ECLAC.
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Final report of the scientific and technical committee of the International Martine, George. (2001). “The sustainable use of space.” Paper Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR). (1999). [On- given at the First Cyber Seminar of the Population line]. Available: http://www.unisdr.org/docs/stcrep.htm Environment Research Network, 2001. [On-line]. Available: www.populationenvironmentresearch.org “Guidelines for natural disaster prevention, preparedness and mitigation.” (1994). World Conference on Natural Disaster Ministerio de Salud. (1997). Honduras: Encuesta nacional de Reduction, Yokohama, Japan, 23-27 May 1994. [On-line]. epidemiología y salud familiar, 1996: Informe final (“Honduras: Available: http://www.unisdr.org/docs/yokohama/toc.htm National Survey of Epidemiology and Family Health, 1996: Final Report”). Tegucigalpa: Honduran Ministry of Health. “Guiding principles for effective early warning by the Early Warning Programme of the International Decade for National Climactic Data Center (NCDC). (1999). Mitch: The Natural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR).” (1997, August). deadliest Atlantic hurricane since 1870. (Table 3: Damage International IDNDR Conference on Early Warning synopsis by country”). [On-line]. Available:http:// Systems for the Reduction of Natural Disasters. Potsdam, lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/reports/mitch/ Germany, 7-11. [On-line]. Available: http://www.idndr.org/ mitch.html#DAMAGE docs/early/guiding.htm#national Nicaragua, Instituto Nacional de Estadísticas y Censos (INEC). “Habitat joins hands with Quercus Corp.” (1999, May 4). [On (1998). Encuesta Nicaragüense de demografia y salud line].Available:http://www.unchs.org/unchs/english/ (“Demographic and health survey of Nicaragua”). Instituto hdv5n2/news.htm Nacional de Estadísticas y Censos – INEC. Managua, Nicaragua: INEC. Hardoy, Jorge & Satterthwaite, David. (1989). Squatter citizen: Life in the urban third world. London: Earthscan Publications. Organización Panamericana de la Salud/ Organización Mundial de la Salud (OPS/OMS). (1999). Masica: Revista Hernández, Gabriela. (1999, February). “El huracán de los Centroamericana del programa medio ambiente y salud en el istmo pobres...y de las oportunidades”(“The hurricane of the Centroamericano (“Masica: Central America review of the poor...and the opportunities”). Masica, 6-18. environment and health program”). San José, Costa Rica: OPS/OMS. Honduras, Secretaria de Planificación & UNFPA. (1996). “Honduras: Proyecciones de población” (“Honduras: OPS/OMS. (2002). Cronologia de los desastres ocurridos en Nicaragua Population projections”). Proyecto Política Social, Población, (1609-1995) (“Chronology of natural disasters in Género y Empleo (HON/94/P02). Tegucigalpa: UNFPA. Nicaragua”). [On-line]. Available: http://www.ops.org.ni/ opsnic/tematicas/desastres/cronologia-desastres.htm International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR). (1999). “The mandate on disaster reduction.” Secretaría de Salud, ASHONPLAFA, & CDC. (2002). Encuesta International Program Forum, Geneva, 5-9 July 1999. [On- nacional de epidemiología y salud familiar (ENESF) (“National line]. Available: http://www.unisdr.org/forum/mandate.htm survey of epidemiology and family health”). Tegucigalpa: ASHONPLAFA. Latin American and Caribbean Demographic Center (CELADE). (1999). Latin America: Urban and rural population Sistema de Integración Centroamericana (SICA). (1999). projections. Demographic Bulletin No. 63. Santiago, Chile: Reconstrucción y transformación de Centroamérica después del CELADE. Huracán Mitch: Una visión regional (“Reconstruction and transformation of Central America after Hurricane Mitch: Lavell, Allan (Ed.). (1994). Living in risk: Vulnerable communities A regional vision”). San Salvador: SICA. and disaster prevention in Latin America. Bogotá: Tercer Mundo Editores. “The Stockholm Declaration.” (1999). [On-line]. Available: http://www.ccic.ca/archives/devpol/1999/ Martine, George. (1995). “Población y medio ambiente: apg7_stockholm_declaration.htm Lecciones de la experiencia de América Latina” (“Population and environment: Lessons from the Latin American The International Programme Forum. (1999). The concluding experience”). Notas de Población 62, 261-310 phase of the United Nations International Decade for Natural Reduction. [On-line]. Available: http://www.unisdr.org/ Martine, George. (1999). “The urban environment: Impending conference/accountability.htm catastrophe or untapped opportunity?” UNFPA Country Support Team, Working Paper No. 29. Mexico City: UNFPA.
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Thouret, Jean-Claude & D’Ercole, Robert. (1996). “Vulnérabilité aux risques naturels en milieu urbain: Effets, United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA). (1998). Pobreza y facteurs et réponses sociales” (“Vulnerability to natural risks inequidad de género: Salud y derechos sexuales y reproductivos en in urban milieux: Effects, factors and social responses”). América Latina y el Caribe (“Poverty and gender inequity: Cahiers Sciences Humaines 32(2), 407-422. Health and sexual and reproductive rights in Latin America and the Caribbean”). VII Conferencia Regional sobre la Twigg, J. & Greig, B. (1999). “The age of accountability: Integración de la Mujer en el Desarrollo Económico y Community involvement in disaster reduction.” Paper given Social de América Latina y el Caribe. Santiago, Chile: at UN-IDNDR and QUIPUNET Internet Conference, UNFPA. 14-25 June 1999. Author. UNFPA (Nicaragua Office). (1998). “Contributions to the United Nations (UN). (1997). World urbanization prospects. ST/ interagency document to the Under-Secretary of the ESA/SER.A/166. Sales E.97, XII.3. New York: United United Nations.” Managua, Nicaragua: UNFPA. Nations. UNFPA (Nicaragua Office). (1999). “Informe efectos del United Nations Development Program (UNDP)—Nicaragua. Huracán Mitch: Acciones del UNFPA-Nicaragua” (1998). “Valoración de los efectos del Huracán Mitch y (“Report on the effects of Hurricane Mitch: Actions by propuestas para enfrentar la etapa de recon- the UNFPA office in Nicaragua”). Managua, Nicaragua: strucción”(“Evaluation of the effects of Hurrican Mitch UNFPA. and proposals for the reconstruction phase”). Authors. World Resources Institute (WRI). (1997). World resources 1996- United Nations Population Division. (1997). Urban and rural 97: A guide to the global environment–The urban environment. Areas, 1996. New York: United Nations. New York: Oxford.
ECSP TRADE AND ENVIRONMENT FORUM
Promoting world trade and protecting the global commons are frequently presented as mutual exclusive goals. But this dichotomy often results in a stalemate between the business and environmental communities—a stalemate that inhibits progress both for future trade liberalization and for multilateral environmental solutions.
Headed by Wilson Center Senior Policy Scholar William Krist, ECSP’s Trade and Environment Forum (TEF) addresses this critical global policy problem. Recognizing the legitimate claims of both international trade law and environmental law, TEF identifies methods of harmonizing international trading rules with today’s rapidly evolving environmental concerns.
Visit the TEF Web site at http://wwics.si.edu/tef/index.htm to read TEF publications, find out about TEF Wilson Center meetings, and keep abreast of recent trade and environment developments.
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