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Comparative Analysis of the Competitive Position of the EU Automotive Industry and the Impact of the Introduction of Autonomous Vehicles Final Report

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Comparative Analysis of the Competitive Position of the EU Automotive Industry and the Impact of the Introduction of Autonomous Vehicles Final Report GEAR 2030 Strategy 2015- 2017 - Comparative analysis of the competitive position of the EU automotive industry and the impact of the introduction of autonomous vehicles Final report Written by Nick Asselin-Miller, Gareth Horton, Sofia Amaral, Hannah Figg, Dominic Sheldon (Ricardo), Christian Lutz, Markus Flaute (GWS), Peter Wells (CAIR) September – 2017 EUROPEAN COMMISSION Directorate-General for Internal Market, Industry, Entrepreneurship and SMEs Directorate C - Industrial Transformation and Advanced Value Chains Unit C.4 - Automotive and Mobility Industries Contact: Aleksander Lazarevic E-mail: [email protected] European Commission B-1049 Brussels EUROPEAN COMMISSION GEAR 2030 Strategy 2015- 2017 - Comparative analysis of the competitive position of the EU automotive industry and the impact of the introduction of autonomous vehicles Final report Directorate-General for Internal Market, Industry, Entrepreneurship and SMEs 2016 Europe Direct is a service to help you find answers to your questions about the European Union. Freephone number (*): 00 800 6 7 8 9 10 11 (*) The information given is free, as are most calls (though some operators, phone boxes or hotels may charge you). LEGAL NOTICE This document has been prepared for the European Commission however it reflects the views only of the authors, and the Commission cannot be held responsible for any use which may be made of the information contained therein. More information on the European Union is available on the Internet (http://www.europa.eu). Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union, 2017 ISBN 978-92-79-69291-8 doi:10.2873/83569 © European Union, 2017 Reproduction is authorised provided the source is acknowledged. GEAR 2030 Strategy 2015-2017 - Comparative analysis of the competitive position of the EU automotive industry and the impact of the introduction of autonomous vehicles Table of Contents GLOSSARY OF TERMS ............................................................................................................ 7 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ......................................................................................................... 11 1 OVERVIEW AND CONTEXT ........................................................................................... 16 1.1 Background ....................................................................................................... 16 1.2 Purpose and scope of the study ......................................................................... 17 2 METHODOLOGY AND MODELLING ENVIRONMENT ........................................................ 20 2.1 Overall project methodology and objectives ....................................................... 20 2.2 Identification of trends and data collection activities........................................... 21 2.3 Overview of modelling approach ........................................................................ 25 2.4 Microeconomic model ........................................................................................ 26 2.4.1 Model overview ................................................................................... 26 2.4.2 Input data ........................................................................................... 26 2.4.3 Step 1: Quantification of trends ........................................................... 27 2.4.4 Step 2: Estimation of additional vehicle production costs and profit margin ................................................................................................ 30 2.4.5 Step 3: Estimation of the additional material use in vehicles ................ 35 2.4.6 Step 4: Preparation of inputs for GINFORS macroeconomic model ........ 35 2.5 GINFORS-E macroeconomic model..................................................................... 36 3 BASELINE AND SCENARIO DEFINITION ....................................................................... 41 3.1 Baseline definition ............................................................................................. 41 3.1.1 CO2 emission regulations ..................................................................... 41 3.1.2 Pollutant emission regulations.............................................................. 42 3.1.3 Safety regulations ............................................................................... 43 3.2 Scenario definitions ........................................................................................... 44 3.2.1 Scenario 1: EU levelling gradually ........................................................ 46 3.2.2 Scenario 2: EU one-off levelling ........................................................... 47 3.2.3 Scenario 3: EU overshooting gradually ................................................. 48 3.2.4 Scenario 4: EU one-off overshooting .................................................... 50 3.2.5 Scenario 5: Freezing of EU regulations ................................................. 51 3.2.6 China case scenario ............................................................................. 53 4 ASSESSMENT OF IMPACTS .......................................................................................... 55 4.1 Micro-economic modelling outputs ..................................................................... 55 4.1.1 Baseline scenario................................................................................. 55 4.1.2 EU at varying levels of leadership (scenarios 1 - 4) .............................. 70 4.1.3 Freezing of EU regulations (scenario 5) ................................................ 77 4.1.4 Strengthening of Chinese regulations to global-leadership standards (China case scenarios)......................................................................... 79 4.2 Macro-economic modelling outputs .................................................................... 84 4.2.1 Baseline Scenario ................................................................................ 84 4.2.2 EU at varying levels of leadership (scenarios 1 - 4) .............................. 89 4.2.3 Freezing of EU regulations (scenario 5) ................................................ 97 4.2.4 Strengthening of Chinese regulations to global-leadership standards (China case scenarios)......................................................................... 99 4.3 Impact on Tier 1 suppliers ............................................................................... 101 4.3.1 E-mobility.......................................................................................... 101 4.3.2 Connected and Autonomous Vehicle (CAV) Technologies .................... 108 4.3.3 Overall conclusions on the impacts of e-mobility and CAV technologies on Tier 1 suppliers ............................................................................. 113 5 ANALYSIS OF THE L-CATEGORY MARKET ................................................................... 115 GEAR 2030 Strategy 2015-2017 - Comparative analysis of the competitive position of the EU automotive industry and the impact of the introduction of autonomous vehicles 5.1 Introduction .................................................................................................... 115 5.2 Scope .............................................................................................................. 115 5.2.1 Electric bicycles ................................................................................. 116 5.2.2 Scooters ............................................................................................ 117 5.3 Descriptive and quantitative analysis of market trends ..................................... 117 5.3.1 Data sources and methodology .......................................................... 117 5.3.2 Overview of market trends ................................................................ 118 5.3.3 Trends in vehicle ownership ............................................................... 126 5.3.4 Impacts of market trends on the competitiveness of EU manufacturers126 5.4 Key trends affecting the competitiveness of the EU L-category vehicle industry 127 5.4.1 Environmental trends ........................................................................ 128 5.4.2 Safety trends..................................................................................... 137 5.5 Conclusions on the EU L-category vehicle industry ........................................... 143 6 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS.................................................................. 144 6.1 Key conclusions from the analysis of the Tier 1 supply industry ........................ 148 6.1.1 Impacts of a 100% EV transition........................................................ 148 6.1.2 Impacts of high penetration of CAV technology .................................. 148 6.2 Key L-category conclusions from analysis......................................................... 149 6.2.1 For EU manufacturers ........................................................................ 149 6.2.2 For the EU market ............................................................................. 150 6.2.3 For the EU economy .......................................................................... 151 6.3 Recommendations for the EC ........................................................................... 151 6.3.1 M1/N1 – category vehicles................................................................. 151 6.3.2 Automotive supply chain...................................................................
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