In theory, every team is on the road to the final four. truth is, most of them

are heading for a dead end. so to help College Hoops you navigate this year’s field,the mag TIP-OFF and .com mapped out this top 25. 11.14.11

The Heels have a Team capsules by Jordan Brenner jump on the field thanks to Henson and the UNC frontcourt.

Chad Ford’s Future Pro North carolina shot breakdown* 1,959 attempts Last season: 29–8 (14–2 ACC) Elite Eight SF sophomore, 6'8", 215 Go ahead, try to find a weakness. Top 100 Draft Board Rank: 2* It’s not in the frontcourt of senior 1 PF (15.7 ppg), junior Of four possible UNC lottery Three- Midrange Short Runners Post-ups Around the PF (11.7) and picks, Barnes is the alpha pointers jumpers jumpers 69 321 basket sophomore SF Harrison Barnes dog. His ability to score from 552 154 202 661 (15.7). Soph (6.2 apg) is the perfect to keep anywhere makes him a favorite * Shot breakdown of 2010-11 season (halfcourt only) provided by Synergy Sports those scorers well fed. And in case that experience isn’t enough, of scouts, and his willingness to Technology; midrange jumpers measure 17' to 20'9". SG P.J. Hairston (No. 13, ESPNU 100) and PF James McAdoo (No. 6) carry the team in the clutch puts are instant impact players. Found a weakness yet? Didn’t think so. him in the mix for the No. 1 pick. Joe Lunardi’s Games with Bracket Impact

* For the latest Top 100 NBA prospects, Nov. 11 vs. Dec. 3 @ March 3 @ SEARCH: CHAD FORD at ESPN.COM on Michigan State Kentucky Duke Tuesdays leading up to June’s draft.

espn the magazine. 11.14.2011 67 College Hoops TIP-OFF 11.14.11

Chad Ford’s Future Pro Kentucky shot breakdown 1,837 field goal attempts 2 Last season: 29–9 (10–6 SEC) Final Four F/C Freshman, 6'10", 220 Top 100 draft board Another year, another obscene recruiting class for Rank: 1 : F/C Anthony Davis (No. 1, ESPNU 100), SF Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (No. 4) and PG Marquis Kentucky has four potential Three- Midrange Short Runners Post–ups Around the Teague (No. 8). Add two returnees from the 2010 lottery picks, but Davis is pointers jumpers jumpers 134 136 basket crop— (15.7 ppg) and the Holy Grail—tall, huge 603 101 226 637 (12.3 ppg)—and there’s talk of this being Calipari’s wingspan, runs like a guard Joe Lunardi’s Games with Bracket Impact most talented starting five ever. Senior Darius and plays hard. He needs bulk Miller (10.9 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 44.3 3PT%) might as well and polished post moves, but Dec. 3 vs. Dec. 31 vs. Feb. 11 @ be an assistant coach to these kids. he’s still favored to go No. 1. North Carolina Louisville Vanderbilt

Chad Ford’s Future Pro Ohio State shot breakdown 1,760 field goal attempts 3 Last season: 34–3 (16–2 Big Ten) Sweet 16 PF sophomore, 6'9", 280 With four of its top six players back, Ohio State Top 100 Draft board Rank: 7 should again have D1’s most efficient offense, especially with POY favorite (17.2 With a body the size of a semi, Jared Sullinger Three- Midrange Short Runners Post-ups Around the ppg, 10.2 rpg) in the paint. But neither soph Aaron Sullinger is a true big man who pointers jumpers jumpers 57 277 basket Craft nor four-star frosh Shannon Scott has much is also blessed with 580 118 166 562 presswire

s

of a stroke at the point, and lights-out smarts. If he were two or three /u Joe Lunardi’s Games with Bracket Impact (50.2 3PT%) is gone. Still, Thad Matta nearly won it inches taller (and 10 to 15 connor all a few years ago with a guard who couldn’t shoot pounds lighter), he’d be a Nov. 15 vs. Nov. 29 vs. Feb. 4 @ ’ o Florida Duke Wisconsin

(Mike Conley) and a dominant big man (). shoo-in for the No. 1 pick. jim ; ; es g ima

ap / media

Chad Ford’s Future Pro sport Connecticut shot breakdown

2,023 field goal attempts cal 4 Last season: 32–9 (9–9 Big East) Champions F/C ; es Freshman, 6'10", 270 g ima Top 100 draft Board Surprise! Just when a repeat looked like a pipe Rank: 3 etty dream, Andre Drummond (No. 2, ESPNU 100) decided /g to come to college a year early. Suddenly, the Huskies Drummond has an NBA

Three- Midrange Short Runners Post-ups Around the robbins

have a huge anchor inside, but someone has to get body right now. He defends, pointers jumpers jumpers 122 153 basket joe 629 211 239 669 ; the ball to him and sophomore star-in-the-making rebounds and blocks shots; he (11.1 ppg). If soph can face the basket, take his Joe Lunardi’s Games with Bracket Impact presswire

can come close to resembling departed do-it-all man off the dribble and post s PG , there might be one more surprise up. In other words, a serious Feb. 6 @ Feb. 18 vs. Feb. 25 vs. /u abell

Louisville Marquette Syracuse

in store for UConn. contender to be the No. 1 pick. l u pa : : top

from , , e g pa Chad Ford’s Future Pro Syracuse shot breakdown his

1,739 field goal attempts T ES; 5 Last season: 27–8 (12–6 Big East) 3rd Round F/C Rakeem Christmas G Freshman, 6'9", 222 ETTYIMA The Orange struggled to defend and board last Top 100 draft board G Rank: 62 season, resulting in an early Tourney exit. But Jim

Boeheim has answers. Frosh Rakeem Christmas At 22, Joseph isn’t a sexy Three- Midrange Short Runners Post-ups Around the (No. 20, ESPNU 100) and seven-foot soph will prospect. Enter Christmas. pointers jumpers jumpers 103 148 basket 591 113 174 610 crash the glass and focus on D. That frees seniors Scouts want players with size

Scoop Jardine (12.5 ppg, 5.9 apg) and and athleticism who , OBSERVER/MCT/ & NEWS H Joe Lunardi’s Games with Bracket Impact G (14.3 ppg) and junior Brandon Triche (11.1 ppg) to shots and play D. He’s got lead an offensive charge made all the more deadly by it all covered, which should get Dec. 2 vs. Feb. 11 vs. March 3 vs. a new facet: second-chance points. him into the NBA before long. Florida UConn Louisville 66: ETHAN HYMAN/RALEI ETHAN 66: e g a P

68 espn the magazine. 11.14.2011 College Hoops TIP-OFF 11.14.11

Chad Ford’s Future Pro DUKE shot breakdown 1,846 field goal attempts 6 Last season: 32–5 (13–3 ACC) Sweet 16 PG/SG Freshman, 6'4", 200 Top 100 Draft Board Three is the key in Durham. Coach K is three wins shy Rank: 11 of breaking the D1 record (902), and with a 12-deep squad, he won’t have to worry about his magic Austin’s dad, Doc, passed Three- Midrange Short Runners Post-ups Around the number for long. Meanwhile, Duke’s top three guards, down his basketball IQ, scoring pointers jumpers jumpers 95 134 basket 645 153 248 571 including frosh Austin Rivers (No. 3, ESPNU 100), instincts and ability to wow. can all rain threes. But the Blue Devils don’t have a But Austin isn’t as athletic as Joe Lunardi’s Games with Bracket Impact true point guard, and that’s a concern for the three his dad, which limits his ceiling veteran bigs—Mason and and Ryan as a pro unless he can show Nov. 29 @ Jan. 4 @ March 3 vs. Kelly—who are best served off the dish. consistency as a point guard. Ohio State Temple North Carolina

Chad Ford’s Future Pro VANDERBILT shot breakdown 1,582 field goal attempts 7 Last season: 23–11 (9–7 SEC) 2nd Round SF SENIOR, 6'7", 225 After being bounced early from the Tourney as Top 100 draft board Rank: 29 a No. 5 seed, Vandy is dreaming bigger than ever—

and for good reason. Its top eight players return, Taylor is an explosive leaper Three- Midrange Short Runners Post-ups Around the including leading scorer John Jenkins (19.5 ppg), and a prime defender, but he pointers jumpers jumpers 31 210 basket a junior guard. Plus, SG Dai-Jon Parker (No. 33, struggles to dominate on 632 140 116 453 ESPNU 100) has hopped aboard. But if the Dores offense. Scouts are interested Joe Lunardi’s Games with Bracket Impact don’t shore up a D that allowed opponents to sink in him for his physical skills, a ridiculous 43.4% from deep in their final six but don’t be shocked if Nov. 28 vs. Dec. 2 @ Feb. 11 vs. games, their dreams will be dashed again. goes first. Xavier Louisville Kentucky

Chad Ford’s Future Pro FLORIDA shot breakdown 1,764 field goal attempts 8 Last season: 29–8 (13–3 SEC) Elite Eight SG Freshman, 6'3", 207 Top 100 draft board If only the Tourney had a height limit, because the Rank: 4 Gators backcourt of junior Kenny Boynton (6'2"), senior (5'8"), superfrosh Bradley Beal Scouts not only compare Beal Three- Midrange Short Runners Post-ups Around the (6'3") and transfer (6'3") would to Ray Allen and , pointers jumpers jumpers 86 275 basket 572 111 141 579 dominate. Alas, it does not, so Florida’s hopes for a they believe he’s further along Final Four hinge on soph Patric Young (3.4 ppg) than either pro at this stage. presswire

Joe Lunardi’s Games with Bracket Impact and junior (4.3 ppg) stepping into If lets his s /u the big-man void left by NBA second-rounders freshman go wild, Beal could Nov. 15 @ Feb. 4 vs. March 4 vs. Ohio State Vanderbilt Kentucky entry and . be a high lottery pick in 2012. g marvin ; ; es g ima

ap / Chad Ford’s Future Pro shot breakdown martin

MEMPHIS Last season: 25–10 (10–6 C-USA) 2nd Round 1,614 field goal attempts

9 SF Adonis Thomas dave ; ;

Freshman, 6'6", 222 es g ima Tigers fans have reason to smile: SG Top 100 draft board ap

Rank: 18 / (12.3 ppg) stayed in school, PG Joe Jackson

excelled with the U19 team, PF Tarik Black shone The NBA loves crazy athletes, mphrey

Three- Midrange Short Runners Post-ups Around the u

pointers jumpers jumpers basket h

after New Year’s (10.6 ppg, 5.3 rpg) and top-10 and Thomas is insane. He has 63 151 k 560 77 162 601

frosh Adonis Thomas is ready-made. But Memphis mar pro-caliber ability to run the ; es

went 14–2 in games decided by five or fewer g floor, explode to the rim and Joe Lunardi’s Games with Bracket Impact ima points and in OT. That speaks to poise­—and luck. finish. If he can transition ap If the Tigers test the buzzer that often this smoothly from a 4 to a 3, he’ll Dec. 17 @ Dec. 22 @ Feb. 4 vs. / davis

Louisville Georgetown Xavier . d

season, their luck may run out. move up draft boards. sara : : top

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70 espn the magazine. 11.14.2011 College Hoops TIP-OFF 11.14.11

Chad Ford’s Future Pro Louisville shot breakdown 1,631 field goal attempts 10 Last season: 25–10 (12–6 Big East) 2nd Round SG Freshman, 6'5", 225 Top 100 draft board loves ’s savvy, clutch heroics and Rank: 53 leadership. Especially his leadership. The junior point guard’s steady hand will be crucial in helping his team Few freshmen look more Three- Midrange Short Runners Post–ups Around the move on from its tough Tourney loss to Morehead NBA-ready than Blackshear. pointers jumpers jumpers 44 124 basket State. Siva will need to integrate top-30 frosh Chane A power athlete who knows 679 115 136 533 Behanan and 6'11" soph while feeding how to get to the basket and Joe Lunardi’s Games with Bracket Impact his wings, including top recruit Wayne Blackshear finish, he just needs more (No. 27, ESPNU 100). Yes, that’s a lot of Cards to of his jumpers to fall to rise Dec. 2 vs. Dec. 31 @ Feb. 6 vs. shuffle. But too many? Not for this dealer. up draft boards. Vanderbilt Kentucky UConn

Chad Ford’s Future Pro PITTSBURGH shot breakdown 1,528 field goal attempts 11 Last season: 28–6 (15–3 Big East) 3rd Round Pf Khem Birch Freshman, 6'9", 220 For all his success at Pittsburgh, coach Jamie Top 100 draft board Rank: 55 Dixon never has landed a signature, top-15 recruit.

Well, until now. Introducing PF Khem Birch (No. 12, Birch is a shot-blocking, Three- Midrange Short Runners Post-ups Around the ESPNU 100), the highest-rated Panthers prospect rebounding specialist without pointers jumpers jumpers 87 87 basket since Brian Shorter in 1987, 16 years before Dixon much offense. NBA teams 463 168 184 539 took over. Nine letter winners also return, including always draft bigs who want to Joe Lunardi’s Games with Bracket Impact the team’s leading scorer, senior SG Ashton Gibbs play D, but first Birch must (16.8 ppg). That could add up to another first for persuade the frosh-averse Jan. 16 @ Jan. 21 vs. March 3 @ Dixon: a Final Four appearance. Dixon to give him minutes. Syracuse Louisville UConn

Chad Ford’s Future Pro BAYLOR shot breakdown 1,327 field goal attempts es 12 Last season: 18–13 (7–9 Big 12) SF/PF g ima SOPHomore, 6'11", 235

Top 100 draft board etty Last year, turnover at point guard (Tweety Carter Rank: 6 /g to A.J. Walton) led to turnovers everywhere lyons

else (15.7 per game, most in the Big 12). Not Jones has Tracy McGrady-like Three- Midrange Short Runners Post-ups Around the andy pointers jumpers jumpers basket ;

coincidentally, Baylor lost six of its final eight talent, but to stick in the NBA 46 188 es 389 117 121 466 g

games. This year, Walton, now a junior, will get help he needs to round out his ima

ap at the 1 from juco All-America . game much as Lamar Odom Joe Lunardi’s Games with Bracket Impact / That’s good news for soph Perry Jones (13.9 ppg) once did. If the wingman can herald and senior PF (12.4 ppg) and bad news improve his team play, he’ll Dec. 17 @ Jan. 2 vs. Jan. 16 @ - ne for ballhawks across the country. be a top-five pick. BYU Texas A&M Kansas u trib

waco / larson

Chad Ford’s Future Pro jerry WISCONSIN shot breakdown ; 1,684 field goal attempts 13 Last season: 25–9 (13–5 Big Ten) Sweet 16 PG JORDAN TAYLOR presswire

SENIOr, 6'1", 195 s How does a team replacing three starters, Top 100 draft board /u Rank: 70 including top scorer (18.3 ppg), open leclaire

the season ranked higher than last year? Well, the A shoot-first point who lacks Three- Midrange Short Runners Post-ups Around the Badgers return senior PG , who led pointers jumpers jumpers basket

Jordan Taylor elite size, Taylor doesn’t look 53 225 charles 707 143 201 355 ; es

the nation in /turnover ratio (3.83) while anything like an NBA prospect. g ima scoring 18.1 ppg, so there shouldn’t be much But scouts can’t argue with his

Joe Lunardi’s Games with Bracket Impact ap drop-off for D1’s second-most efficient offense. production, and they’re giving / media Besides, when has a Bo Ryan–coached Badgers him a good look based on his Nov. 30 @ Jan. 12 @ Feb. 4 vs. team not been in the Tourney? Try never. toughness and stroke. North Carolina Purdue Ohio State sport

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72 espn the magazine. 11.14.2011 College Hoops TIP-OFF 11.14.11

Chad Ford’s Future Pro KANSAS shot breakdown 1,835 field goal attempts 14 Last season: 35–3 (14–2 Big 12) Elite Eight PF THOMAS ROBINSON JUNIOR, 6'9", 237 Top 100 draft board After losing four of their top five players from last Rank: 9 season, the Jayhawks were rocked by the news that freshmen SG Ben McLemore and PF Jamari Despite spending last season Three- Midrange Short Runners Post-ups Around the Traylor are academically ineligible. Of course, in the shadows of the Morris pointers jumpers jumpers 74 311 basket there’s a good reason Big 12 coaches still picked twins, Robinson, in his limited 614 113 132 591 this team to finish first: Senior PG minutes, was the nation’s best Joe Lunardi’s Games with Bracket Impact (4.6 apg) and PF Thomas Robinson (7.6 ppg, rebounder. He’s also the type of 6.4 rpg, 14.6 mpg) appear ready for star turns for physical specimen NBA teams Nov. 15 vs. Dec. 10 vs. Jan. 16 vs. coach , who’s made 13 straight Tourneys. hunger for in the lottery. Kentucky Ohio State Baylor

Chad Ford’s Future Pro XAVIER shot breakdown 1,488 field goal attempts 15 Last season: 24–8 (15–1 A-10) 2nd Round PG TU HOLLOWAY SENIOR, 6'0", 185 Just when the X-Men looked deep and balanced, Top 100 draft board Rank: 45 seven-foot senior Kenny Frease (11.7 ppg, 7.1 rpg)

was suspended indefinitely for “not fulfilling all the He has speed and toughness Three- Midrange Short Runners Post-ups Around the responsibilities of a Xavier player.” The team is still and can flat-out score. Scouts pointers jumpers jumpers 57 239 basket strong in the backcourt with A-10 POY Tu Holloway are overlooking his struggles 462 49 142 539 (19.7 ppg, 5.4 apg) and junior PG Mark Lyons as a shooter because of a great Joe Lunardi’s Games with Bracket Impact (13.6 ppg). Meanwhile, transfer PF Travis Taylor will junior season. And if Jordan be asked to hit the boards hard, but for a Tourney Crawford can be a first-round Nov. 28 @ Dec. 10 vs. Dec. 31 vs. hopeful, that hole in the middle looms large. pick … et tu, Holloway? Vanderbilt Cincinnati Gonzaga

Chad Ford’s Future Pro ARIZONA shot breakdown 1,838 field goal attempts 16 Last season: 30–8 (14–4 Pac-10) Elite Eight PG Josiah Turner Freshman, 6'3", 192 Top 100 draft board The Sean Miller era begins in earnest this season Rank: 27

when his top-10 recruiting class takes the floor, led es by PG Josiah Turner (No. 15, ESPNU 100) and SG Nick g Turner is an elite athlete who ima Three- Midrange Short Runners Post-ups Around the Johnson (No. 22). The freshmen will have a worthy can get to the rim at will. He pointers jumpers jumpers 89 90 basket ap 693 126 130 710 g/ tutor in senior SG Kyle Fogg (85 starts), while junior would be ranked 10 to 15 spots

small forwards Solomon Hill and Kevin Parrom are higher, but his low basketball prischin Joe Lunardi’s Games with Bracket Impact jim

buying into Miller after two seasons. Once the coach IQ and penchant for rubbing ; smi gets his guys perfecting his up-tempo system, teammates the wrong way Dec. 7 @ Dec. 17 vs. Feb. 25 vs. Florida Gonzaga UCLA icon

Miller’s time could prove to be epic. cost him points with scouts. / brown . . a

matt ; ; press

Chad Ford’s Future Pro shot breakdown marquette ma 1,744 field goal attempts 17 Last season: 22–15 (9–9 Big East) Sweet 16 SG vander blue /zu sophomore, 6'4", 200 lobal Seniors (15.8 ppg) and Top 100 draft board g k Darius Johnson-Odom Rank: 59

Jae Crowder (11.8 ppg, 6.8 rpg) have legit résumés, thcree u so but the Golden Eagles’ fortunes rest on an Johnson-Odom will get more Three- Midrange Short Runners Post-ups Around the / unproven lot. Can PF Jamil Wilson, an Oregon press, but scouts are secretly pointers jumpers jumpers 63 189 basket litmer 477 168 161 686 transfer, be a fixture? Can Junior Cadougan fill the high on Blue despite a so-so wayne

point guard vacancy? And will soph SG Vander Blue ; first season. His tough D and Joe Lunardi’s Games with Bracket Impact es (5.1 ppg) live up to his high-scoring rep? If they athleticism have them wishing g ima come through, this team will compete with anyone. he finds a better J. If it comes, Dec. 3 @ Dec. 29 vs. Feb. 18 @ ap Wisconsin Vanderbilt UConn / If not? Even the NIT will be a stretch. he’ll be a riser. ay g eric : : top

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74 espn the magazine. 11.14.2011 College Hoops TIP-OFF 11.14.11

Chad Ford’s Future Pro shot breakdown Last season: 25–12 (12–4 SEC) 1,637 field goal attempts 18 PF JaMychal Green Senior, 6'8", 228 Top 100 draft board The Tide look like contenders in November—and Rank: 73 we don’t mean Nick Saban’s team. Bama hasn’t danced since 2006, but it should get off the schneid Green was one of the more Three- Midrange Short Runners Post-ups Around the with a squad that was seventh in D1 in defensive efficient posts last season, but pointers jumpers jumpers 106 189 basket 451 134 147 610 efficiency and returns solid bigs in JaMychal Green scouts wonder if he can do one (15.5 ppg, 7.5 rpg) and Tony Mitchell (15.2 ppg, thing well enough for the NBA. Joe Lunardi’s Games with Bracket Impact 7.1 rpg). If frosh wings Levi Randolph (No. 30, They’re not convinced, and ESPNU 100) and Trevor Lacey (No. 40) can drain he’ll need a huge year to Jan. 19 vs. Jan. 21 @ Feb. 14 vs. threes, Tide fans won’t be so sad to see football end. change their minds. Vanderbilt Kentucky Florida

Chad Ford’s Future Pro Cincinnati shot breakdown 1,633 field goal attempts 19 Last season: 26–9 (11–7 Big East) 3rd Round PF Yancy Gates Senior, 6'9", 260 Believe it or not, the Bearcats haven’t been ranked in Top 100 draft board Rank: 94 the preseason since 2003-04, back when Bob

Huggins was coach. This group resembles a lot of Gates is built like a tight end, Three- Midrange Short Runners Post-ups Around the those gritty Huggins teams, with a commitment and he’ll crash the offensive pointers jumpers jumpers 99 153 basket to boards, hard-nosed D and balanced scoring boards—when motivated. But 573 121 169 518 ( led with 11.9 ppg last season). But his play is frustratingly Yancy Gates Joe Lunardi’s Games with Bracket Impact poor shooting (33.8 3PT%, 66.8 FT%) will have to inconsistent, and he’s still not vastly improve for the team to have any chance at the offensive force scouts Dec. 10 @ Jan. 18 @ Feb. 23 vs. duplicating Huggins’ 1992 Final Four squad. thought he would be. Xavier UConn Louisville

Chad Ford’s Future Pro UCLA shot breakdown 1,538 field goal attempts 20 Last season: 23–11 (13–5 Pac-10) 3rd Round C Joshua Smith Sophomore, 6'10", 305 Top 100 draft board What if? That question has become routine for Rank: 25 Bruins fans. NBA defections hit hard again as perimeter stars and Smith flirted with declaring Three- Midrange Short Runners Post-ups Around the left early. There is still a deep frontcourt led by pointers jumpers jumpers 54 191 basket as a freshman but heard from es

465 116 137 575 g soph Joshua Smith (10.9 ppg, 6.3 rpg) and junior scouts that they want him to ima

ap PF (13.9 ppg, 9.1 rpg). But UCLA lose more weight and dominate Joe Lunardi’s Games with Bracket Impact / needs senior guards Lazeric Jones and Jerime the Pac-12 for a season. If he phillip . . j Anderson to step up—before Smith becomes the does, he could find himself Dec. 3 vs. Jan. 5 vs. Feb. 11 vs. next Bruin to leave fans wringing their hands. Texas Arizona California

in the lottery. david ; ; es g ima

ap / media

Chad Ford’s Future Pro shot breakdown sport Texas A&M 1,456 field goal attempts

Last season: 24–9 (10–6 Big 12) 2nd Round cal 21 SF ; es

JUNIOR, 6'7", 210 g ima

Billy Kennedy’s medical leave (for undisclosed Top 100 draft board Rank: 26 etty reasons) put an early damper on high spirits in /g College Station. Once the new coach is back, he’ll Middleton has perfected the

Three- Midrange Short Runners Post-ups Around the layton

inherit a team led by junior SF Khris Middleton, who midrange game and drawn pointers jumpers jumpers 53 217 basket 466 156 107 457 can score from anywhere (14.4 ppg), and two comparisons to a young mitchell steady seniors in PF David Loubeau (11.8 ppg) and ; Rip Hamilton. But scouts are Joe Lunardi’s Games with Bracket Impact man PG Dash Harris. But the Aggies are weak behind the bitterly divided: Lottery pick or z arc (33.9 3PT%), and talented prep guards Jamal NBA project? The truth probably Dec. 17 vs. Feb. 1 vs. Feb. 22 vs.

Florida Baylor Kansas schwart Branch and Jordan Green need Kennedy’s guidance. lies somewhere in the middle. ce u br : : top

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76 espn the magazine. 11.14.2011 College Hoops TIP-OFF 11.14.11

Chad Ford’s Future Pro michigan shot breakdown 1,593 field goal attempts 22 Last season: 21–14 (9–9 Big Ten) 3rd Round SG Jr. sophomore, 6'5", 185 Top 100 draft board All but one key player is back from a team that Rank: 90 came within a bucket of the Sweet 16, so the Wolverines certainly are Top 25-worthy if John Hardaway doesn’t see the floor Three- Midrange Short Runners Post-ups Around the Beilein can replace key all-purpose PG Darius the way his dad did, but he sure pointers jumpers jumpers 54 43 basket Morris (15.0 ppg, 6.7 apg, 4.0 rpg). It will take a isn’t afraid to let the ball fly, for 703 99 159 535 group effort: Senior Stu Douglass and four-star better or worse. If he shows Joe Lunardi’s Games with Bracket Impact preps Carlton Brundidge and are more discipline, then some team candidates at the point, while Tim Hardaway Jr. will at least give him a shot to Nov. 21 vs. Jan. 8 vs. Feb. 18 vs. (13.9 ppg) will always welcome extra shots. follow in Dad’s footsteps. Memphis Wisconsin Ohio State

Chad Ford’s Future Pro Gonzaga shot breakdown 1,612 field goal attempts 23 Last season: 25–10 (11–3 WCC) 3rd Round SF/PF elias harris junior, 6'7", 240 Given the Zags’ tradition of high-quality point guards, Top 100 draft board Rank: 66 it’s no surprise that two down years have coincided

with instability at the position. But the Zags are As a freshman, Harris was Three- Midrange Short Runners Post-ups Around the primed at the 1 again with four-star prep Kevin pegged by scouts as a potential pointers jumpers jumpers 54 345 basket Pangos, who will dish to junior F Elias Harris (12.4 ppg) lottery pick. But a so-so second 464 96 172 481 and seven-foot senior (12.5 ppg). season did damage to his Joe Lunardi’s Games with Bracket Impact ’s youth movement also includes SG Gary stock. Harris has to be more Bell Jr. (No. 68, ESPNU 100), Gonzaga’s highest-rated aggressive on both ends to have Dec. 10 vs. Dec. 17 vs. Dec. 31 @ recruit since in 2007. a shot at the first round. Michigan State Arizona Xavier

Chad Ford’s Future Pro California shot breakdown 1,520 field goal attempts 24 Last season: 18–15 (10–8 Pac-10) SG Sophomore, 6'6", 205 Top 100 draft board After settling for the NIT, Cal is primed for an NCAA Rank: 92 run. No other Pac-12 team has three returning scorers the caliber of senior PG Jorge Gutierrez Crabbe lacks elite athleticism, Three- Midrange Short Runners Post-ups Around the (14.6 ppg), senior PF Harper Kamp (14.2) and soph but the sophomore can shoot pointers jumpers jumpers 53 251 basket

432 163 162 459 es SG Allen Crabbe (13.4). And no playmaker is more the basketball from deep. g ima

underrated than Gutierrez, an adept defender and It’s a skill that almost always Joe Lunardi’s Games with Bracket Impact etty

passer (4.5 apg). If his teammates cut down on translates to the next level, so /g turnovers and shore up the boards, the Bears might he should at least find a spot as Dec. 23 @ Feb. 2 vs. Feb. 11 @ meric . .

UNLV Arizona UCLA j sneak into their first Sweet 16 since 1997. a role player in the NBA. ; es g ima

ap / media

Chad Ford’s Future Pro sport Michigan State shot breakdown cal Last season: 19–15 (9–9 Big Ten) 2nd Round 1,573 field goal attempts ; 25 PG/SG Keith Appling es Sophomore, 6'1", 190 g ima

Top 100 draft board The Spartans started 2010-11 as an NCAA title etty

Rank: 65 /g ey

contender, only to barely make the field. With k hic lower expectations, will State climb higher? Not After starring for Team USA this Three- Midrange Short Runners Post-ups Around the likely. Tom Izzo must rely heavily on senior PF summer, Appling had scouts pointers jumpers jumpers 59 169 basket

543 239 129 434 michael (12.6 ppg, 8.6 rpg, 4.1 apg) after believing he should take a huge ; es senior Delvon Roe retired due to knee issues. Top leap from role player to consis- g ima

Joe Lunardi’s Games with Bracket Impact

25 frosh Branden Dawson, a forward, and soph ap tent starter. He has the physical / G Keith Appling have potential, but it will take Izzo’s tools and offensive skill set. But Nov. 11 vs. Nov. 15 vs. March 4 vs. best work yet to make his seventh Final Four. does he have the basketball IQ? North Carolina Duke Ohio State leverone

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78 espn the magazine. 11.14.2011 Don’t say we didn’t mention your team because it’s here—somewhere—along with every College other D1 squad that didn’t crack the top 25. To rank them, The Mag enlisted economist and Hoops THE NEXT 319 RealGM.com contributor Dan Hanner. He rated teams based on the tempo-free stats of TIP-OFF returning/departed players, the development of returning players, the loss and/or return of injured players, the talent level of transfers and/or recruits, and coaching. He used these 11.14.11 26 – 187 ratings to project each school’s conference finish and its winning percentage against an average D1 opponent. Hey, we didn’t say you’d like where we mentioned your team.

026 Purdue 053 Georgetown 080 Indiana State 107 Richmond 134 Boston College 161 TCU Big Ten: 5th (90.6%) Big East: 10th (80.8%) Valley: 3rd (70.1%) Atlantic 10: 7th (63.4%) ACC: 11th (55.4%) Mountain West: 6th (48.9%)

027 UNLV 054 081 Long Beach State 108 Oakland 135 Penn State 162 Auburn Mountain West: 1st (89.3%) Big Ten: 9th (80.6%) Big West: 1st (69.6%) Summit: 2nd (63.3%) Big Ten: 12th (55.4%) SEC: 12th (48.8%)

028 Texas 055 NC State 082 Colorado 109 Providence 136 North Dakota State 163 Valparaiso Big 12: 4th (89.1%) ACC: 6th (80.6%) Pac-12: 7th (69.6%) Big East: 14th (63.3%) Summit: 4th (55.4%) Horizon: 6th (48.8%)

029 Notre Dame 056 Seton Hall 083 USC 110 Arizona State 137 Utah 164 Santa Clara Big East: 7th (88.9%) Big East: 11th (80.3%) Pac-12: 8th (69.6%) Pac-12: 10th (63.3%) Pac-12: 11th (55.3%) West Coast: 5th (48.8%)

030 BYU 057 084 Nevada 111 Colorado State 138 Long Island 165 Tennessee State West Coast: 2nd (88.7%) ACC: 7th (80.2%) Western Athletic: 2nd (69.5%) Mountain West: 4th (63.1%) Northeast: 2nd (55.0%) Ohio Valley: 3rd (48.7%)

031 Temple 058 Iowa 085 Davidson 112 St. Bonaventure 139 Drake 166 Wisconsin-Green Bay Atlantic 10: 2nd (88.6%) Big Ten: 10th (80.0%) Southern: 1st (69.2%) Atlantic 10: 8th (62.9%) Missouri Valley: 6th (55.0%) Horizon: 7th (48.6%)

032 Kansas State 059 Nebraska 086 Georgia 113 Missouri State 140 Hawaii 167 Yale Big 12: 5th (87.9%) Big Ten: 11th (79.7%) SEC: 7th (69.0%) Missouri Valley: 5th (62.8%) Western Athletic: 4th (54.8%) Ivy: 3rd (48.3%)

033 New Mexico 060 Oral Roberts 087 Oklahoma 114 UTEP 141 Ohio 168 Wright State Mountain West: 2nd (87.5%) Summit: 1st (78.5%) Big 12: 8th (68.9%) Conference USA: 6th (62.4%) Mid-American: 4th (54.6%) Horizon: 8th (47.7%)

034 Illinois 061 Harvard 088 Fairfield 115 South Dakota State 142 Ball State 169 Southern Illinois Big Ten: 6th (87.3%) Ivy: 1st (78.3%) Metro Atlantic: 2nd (68.8%) Summit: 3rd (61.9%) Mid-American: 5th (54.3%) Missouri Valley: 8th (46.3%)

035 Florida State 062 State 089 Georgia Tech 116 Bucknell 143 Western Michigan 170 North Florida ACC: 3rd (87.3%) SEC: 5th (77.1%) ACC: 10th (68.4%) Patriot: 1st (61.2%) Mid-American: 6th (54.2%) Atlantic Sun: 3rd (46.1%)

036 Belmont 063 UAB 090 Iowa State 117 St. John’s 144 James Madison 171 Florida Atlantic Atlantic Sun: 1st (87.2%) Conference USA: 2nd (76.8%) Big 12: 9th (68.4%) Big East: 15th (60.1%) Colonial: 5th (53.9%) Sun Belt: 3rd (45.8%)

037 Villanova 064 Saint Louis 091 Northern Iowa 118 East Tennessee State 145 IUPUI 172 Quinnipiac Big East: 8th (87.0%) Atlantic 10: 3rd (76.4%) Missouri Valley: 4th (68.4%) Atlantic Sun: 2nd (60.1%) Summit: 5th (53.6%) Northeast: 4th (45.7%)

038 Clemson 065 Stanford 092 South Florida 119 Texas Tech 146 Oregon State 173 Wagner ACC: 4th (86.9%) Pac-12: 5th (75.7%) Big East: 13th (68.0%) Big 12: 10th (59.6%) Pac-12: 12th (53.3%) Northeast: 5th (45.7%)

039 Missouri 066 Virginia 093 Detroit 120 Vermont 147 Massachusetts 174 Boston University Big 12: 6th (86.6%) ACC: 8th (75.2%) Horizon: 2nd (67.9%) America East: 1st (59.4%) Atlantic 10: 10th (52.4%) America East: 3rd (45.6%)

040 Wichita State 067 Maryland 094 Duquesne 121 George Washington 148 Denver 175 Bradley Missouri Valley: 1st (86.3%) ACC: 9th (75.2%) Atlantic 10: 6th (67.8%) Atlantic 10: 9th (59.1%) Sun Belt: 1st (52.3%) Missouri Valley: 9th (45.1%)

041 Washington 068 Kent State 095 Tennessee 122 Cleveland State 149 UNC Asheville 176 Miami (Ohio) Pac-12: 4th (86.0%) Mid-American: 1st (74.5%) SEC: 8th (66.5%) Horizon: 3rd (59.0%) Big South: 1st (51.9%) Mid-American: 7th (45.0%)

042 Miami (Fla.) 069 Creighton 096 Robert Morris 123 UC Santa Barbara 150 Stony Brook 177 East Carolina ACC: 5th (85.5%) Missouri Valley: 2nd (74.5%) Northeast: 1st (65.9%) Big West: 2nd (58.7%) America East: 2nd (51.6%) Conference USA: 9th (44.8%)

043 070 Dayton 097 Akron 124 Murray State 151 Coastal Carolina 178 Northeastern Big East: 9th (85.3%) Atlantic 10: 4th (74.2%) Mid-American: 2nd (65.7%) Ohio Valley: 2nd (57.5%) Big South: 2nd (51.1%) Colonial: 6th (44.4%)

044 Saint Mary’s 071 Iona 098 South Carolina 125 Rider 152 DePaul 179 Fresno State West Coast: 3rd (84.4%) Metro Atlantic: 1st (73.0%) SEC: 9th (65.5%) Metro Atlantic: 3rd (57.3%) Big East: 16th (50.5%) Western Athletic: 5th (44.3%)

045 Indiana 072 Mississippi 099 Washington State 126 Buffalo 153 Loyola Chicago 180 Georgia State Big Ten: 7th (84.4%) SEC: 6th (72.7%) Pac-12: 9th (65.5%) Mid-American: 3rd (57.3%) Horizon: 5th (50.5%) Colonial: 7th (43.6%)

046 San Diego State 073 Tulsa 100 New Mexico State 127 LSU 154 Evansville 181 Tennessee Tech Mountain West: 3rd (83.9%) Conference USA: 3rd (72.6%) Western Athletic: 3rd (65.3%) SEC: 11th (56.6%) Missouri Valley: 7th (50.4%) Ohio Valley: 4th (43.2%)

047 Butler 074 VCU 101 San Francisco 128 Wisconsin- 155 Weber State 182 Idaho Horizon: 1st (83.7%) Colonial: 3rd (72.5%) West Coast: 4th (65.2%) Horizon: 4th (56.6%) Big Sky: 2nd (50.2%) Western Athletic: 6th (43.0%)

048 Utah State 075 Old Dominion 102 Austin Peay 129 Montana 156 Central Connecticut State 183 Air Force Western Athletic: 1st (83.1%) Colonial: 4th (71.9%) Ohio Valley: 1st (65.1%) Big Sky: 1st (56.3%) Northeast: 3rd (50.1%) Mountain West: 7th (42.9%)

049 Northwestern 076 Rutgers 103 Marshall 130 Cal Poly 157 Lehigh 184 William & Mary Big Ten: 8th (82.6%) Big East: 12th (71.6%) Conference USA: 5th (64.1%) Big West: 3rd (56.3%) Patriot: 2nd (49.5%) Colonial: 8th (42.6%)

050 Oklahoma State 077 Saint Joseph’s 104 Princeton 131 Rice 158 Southern Miss 185 Bowling Green Big 12: 7th (82.0%) Atlantic 10: 5th (70.9%) Ivy: 2nd (63.9%) Conference USA: 7th (56.0%) Conference USA: 8th (49.4%) Mid-American: 8th (42.6%)

051 Drexel 078 Oregon 105 College of Charleston 132 Boise State 159 Middle Tennessee 186 Pennsylvania Colonial: 1st (81.9%) Pac-12: 6th (70.8%) Southern: 2nd (63.8%) Mountain West: 5th (55.9%) Sun Belt: 2nd (49.2%) Ivy: 4th (42.0%)

052 George Mason 079 Central Florida 106 Arkansas 133 Loyola (Md.) 160 Rhode Island 187 Arkansas State Colonial: 2nd (81.3%) Conference USA: 4th (70.6%) SEC: 10th (63.7%) Metro Atlantic: 4th (55.7%) Atlantic 10: 11th (49.2%) Sun Belt: 4th (42.0%)

espn the magazine. 11.14.2011 83 College THE NEXT 319 Hoops TIP-OFF 188 – 344 11.14.11

188 Illinois State 215 VMI 242 Niagara 269 Jacksonville State 296 Northern Illinois 323 Howard Missouri Valley: 10th (41.5%) Big South: 5th (32.7%) Metro Atlantic: 8th (28.2%) Ohio Valley: 9th (22.1%) Mid-American: 11th (15.7%) Mid-Eastern: 9th (8.8%)

189 Winthrop 216 Brown 243 270 Southern Utah 297 High Point 324 Jackson State Big South: 3rd (41.4%) Ivy: 6th (32.5%) Independent: 1st (28.2%) Summit: 8th (21.9%) Big South: 10th (15.4%) Southwestern: 6th (8.6%)

190 Saint Peter’s 217 Hampton 244 Mount St. Mary’s 271 Marist 298 Kennesaw State 325 Hartford Metro Atlantic: 5th (41.4%) Mid-Eastern: 1st (32.4%) Northeast: 8th (27.7%) Metro Atlantic: 10th (21.6%) Atlantic Sun: 9th (15.3%) America East: 8th (8.3%)

191 Morehead State 218 Manhattan 245 Campbell 272 Fordham 299 Texas Southern 326 North Carolina A&T Ohio Valley: 5th (41.3%) Metro Atlantic: 6th (32.2%) Big South: 6th (26.8%) Atlantic 10: 14th (21.4%) Southwestern: 2nd (15.2%) Mid-Eastern: 10th (8.2%)

192 Western Carolina 219 Siena 246 Western Kentucky 273 UC Irvine 300 Cal State Bakersfield 327 Toledo Southern: 3rd (41.2%) Metro Atlantic: 7th (31.6%) Sun Belt: 7th (26.3%) Big West: 8th (21.2%) Independent: 2nd (14.8%) Mid-American: 12th (8.1%)

193 UT Arlington 220 Sacred Heart 247 Albany 274 Savannah State 301 Norfolk State 328 Bethune-Cookman Southland: 1st (41.0%) Northeast: 7th (31.5%) America East: 4th (26.1%) Mid-Eastern: 4th (20.6%) Mid-Eastern: 6th (14.8%) Mid-Eastern: 11th (7.7%)

194 Cornell 221 Wofford 248 Houston 275 Presbyterian 302 Florida A&M 329 Towson Ivy: 5th (40.8%) Southern: 5th (31.3%) Conference USA: 12th (26.1%) Big South: 8th (20.3%) Mid-Eastern: 7th (14.7%) Colonial: 12th (7.7%)

195 Charlotte 222 Morgan State 249 American 276 South Alabama 303 Florida International 330 UL Monroe Atlantic 10: 12th (40.5%) Mid-Eastern: 2nd (31.2%) Patriot: 5th (26.1%) Sun Belt: 10th (20.0%) Sun Belt: 11th (14.6%) Sun Belt: 12th (7.6%)

196 Loyola Marymount 223 Lipscomb 250 Monmouth 277 UC Davis 304 UMKC 331 South Carolina State West Coast: 6th (39.5%) Atlantic Sun: 6th (31.2%) Northeast: 9th (25.8%) Big West: 9th (19.9%) Summit: 9th (14.5%) Mid-Eastern: 12th (7.5%)

197 Wake Forest 224 San Jose State 251 UNC Greensboro 278 Southeastern Louisiana 305 Idaho State 332 UMBC ACC: 12th (38.6%) Western Athletic: 7th (30.7%) Southern: 7th (25.6%) Southland: 6th (19.9%) Big Sky: 8th (14.3%) America East: 9th (7.5%)

198 Portland 225 UL Lafayette 252 San Diego 279 Georgia Southern 306 Samford 333 Fairleigh Dickinson West Coast: 7th (38.6%) Sun Belt: 5th (30.3%) West Coast: 9th (25.2%) Southern: 10th (19.8%) Southern: 11th (14.2%) Northeast: 12th (7.5%)

199 Delaware 226 Sam Houston State 253 Cal State Northridge 280 Maine 307 Colgate 334 Grambling Colonial: 9th (37.7%) Southland: 3rd (30.1%) Big West: 6th (25.0%) America East: 5th (19.3%) Patriot: 7th (14.1%) Southwestern: 7th (7.4%)

200 Northern Colorado 227 Cal State Fullerton 254 Saint Francis (Pa.) 281 McNeese State 308 Mississippi Valley State 335 Western Illinois Big Sky: 3rd (37.3%) Big West: 5th (29.9%) Northeast: 10th (25.0%) Southland: 7th (19.3%) Southwestern: 3rd (13.9%) Summit: 10th (6.7%)

201 Liberty 228 Pepperdine 255 SE Missouri State 282 Tennessee Martin 309 Radford 336 Texas-Pan American Big South: 4th (37.1%) West Coast: 8th (29.9%) Ohio Valley: 6th (25.0%) Ohio Valley: 10th (18.9%) Big South: 11th (12.1%) Great West: 4th (6.0%)

202 Jacksonville 229 Stephen F. Austin 256 UC Riverside 283 Charleston Southern 310 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 337 Prairie View A&M Atlantic Sun: 4th (36.8%) Southland: 4th (29.5%) Big West: 7th (24.5%) Big South: 9th (18.4%) Southland: 11th (11.9%) Southwestern: 8th (4.3%)

203 Hofstra 230 Columbia 257 Elon 284 Navy 311 Stetson 338 Central Arkansas Colonial: 10th (36.8%) Ivy: 7th (29.4%) Southern: 8th (24.3%) Patriot: 6th (18.4%) Atlantic Sun: 10th (11.6%) Southland: 12th (4.1%)

204 Holy Cross 231 IPFW 258 North Dakota 285 Illinois-Chicago 312 Alabama A&M 339 Maryland Eastern Shore Patriot: 3rd (36.2%) Summit: 6th (29.4%) Great West: 2nd (24.3%) Horizon: 10th (18.3%) Southwestern: 4th (11.0%) Mid-Eastern: 13th (4.1%)

205 La Salle 232 Utah Valley 259 Gardner-Webb 286 Alabama State 313 Army 340 Arkansas-Pine Bluff Atlantic 10: 13th (36.1%) Great West: 1st (29.4%) Big South: 7th (23.5%) Southwestern: 1st (18.2%) Patriot: 8th (10.9%) Southwestern: 9th (3.9%)

206 Northern Arizona 233 Eastern Washington 260 Louisiana Tech 287 South Carolina Upstate 314 Alcorn State 341 SIU Edwardsville Big Sky: 4th (35.6%) Big Sky: 5th (29.3%) Western Athletic: 8th (23.2%) Atlantic Sun: 7th (18.2%) Southwestern: 5th (10.2%) Ohio Valley: 11th (3.8%)

207 Pacific 234 UALR 261 Eastern Illinois 288 Montana State 315 Bryant 342 Houston Baptist Big West: 4th (34.9%) Sun Belt: 6th (29.0%) Ohio Valley: 7th (23.1%) Big Sky: 6th (17.9%) Northeast: 11th (9.6%) Great West: 5th (3.8%)

208 Lamar 235 Youngstown State 262 Eastern Kentucky 289 Portland State 316 Dartmouth 343 Southern Southland: 2nd (34.7%) Horizon: 9th (28.9%) Ohio Valley: 8th (23.1%) Big Sky: 7th (17.8%) Ivy: 8th (9.6%) Southwestern: 10th (1.7%)

209 Mercer 236 Central Michigan 263 South Dakota 290 Northwestern State 317 Sacramento State 344 Chicago State Atlantic Sun: 5th (34.7%) Mid-American: 9th (28.6%) Summit: 7th (22.9%) Southland: 8th (17.6%) Big Sky: 9th (9.5%) Great West: 6th (0.9%)

210 Tulane 237 UTSA 264 Eastern Michigan 291 Delaware State 318 Binghamton Conference USA: 10th (34.5%) Southland: 5th (28.6%) Mid-American: 10th (22.7%) Mid-Eastern: 5th (17.5%) America East: 7th (9.4%) For more college 211 UNC Wilmington 238 Chattanooga 265 Troy 292 Florida Gulf Coast 319 The Citadel Colonial: 11th (34.3%) Southern: 6th (28.5%) Sun Belt: 8th (22.6%) Atlantic Sun: 8th (17.4%) Southern: 12th (9.4%) hoops intel, go to ESPN Insider, 212 St. Francis (N.Y.) 239 Lafayette 266 Canisius 293 Texas State 320 NJIT where experts Northeast: 6th (33.6%) Patriot: 4th (28.5%) Metro Atlantic: 9th (22.5%) Southland: 9th (17.1%) Great West: 3rd (9.2%) examine next- level numbers, 213 SMU 240 Coppin State 267 Furman 294 New Hampshire 321 Longwood NCAA bracket Conference USA: 11th (33.5%) Mid-Eastern: 3rd (28.4%) Southern: 9th (22.2%) America East: 6th (16.9%) Independent: 3rd (9.2%) trends and 214 Appalachian State 241 Wyoming 268 North Texas 295 Nicholls State 322 North Carolina Central more. Southern: 4th (33.2%) Mountain West: 8th (28.3%) Sun Belt: 9th (22.1%) Southland: 10th (15.7%) Mid-Eastern: 8th (9.0%)

84 espn the magazine. 11.14.2011