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Hli Forecast Season 2011 final repport Project code: B.FLT. Prepared by: Andrew Wiebe, Christine Killip, Frank Quintarelli and Ella Castillo Katestone Environmental Date published: May 2013 ISBN: [Request through Publications Database] PUBLISHED BY Meat & Livestock Australia Limited Locked Bag 991 NORTH SYDNEY NSW 2059 Heat Load Index Forecast Season 2012-2013 Meat & Livestock Australia acknowledges the matching funds provided by the Australian Government to support the research and development detailed in this publication. This publication is published by Meat & Livestock Australia Limited ABN 39 081 678 364 (MLA). Care is taken to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However MLA cannot accept responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained in the publication. You should make your own enquiries before making decisions concerning your interests. Reproduction in whole or in part of this publication is prohibited without prior written consent of MLA. Contents Abstract.. ............................................................................................................................1 Executive Summary ....................................................................................................................1 1. Background .....................................................................................................................2 1.1 Global weather prediction systems ...................................................................... 2 1.2 History of the Katestone service ........................................................................... 3 2. Project objectives ............................................................................................................4 3. Methodology ....................................................................................................................5 3.1 The weather model .............................................................................................. 5 3.2 Heat Load equations ............................................................................................ 6 3.3 Delivery ................................................................................................................8 4. Results ..........................................................................................................................10 4.1 Forecast zones .................................................................................................. 10 4.2 Weather review .................................................................................................. 11 4.3 Heat wave versus Heat Load ............................................................................. 11 4.4 Heat Load Events .............................................................................................. 12 4.4.1 November 29 to December 3 .................................................................. 12 4.4.2 January 10 to January 22 ....................................................................... 14 4.5 January 24 to February 6 ................................................................................... 18 4.6 Service evaluation .............................................................................................. 23 4.7 Benchmarking .................................................................................................... 30 4.8 Limitations to the service .................................................................................... 30 4.8.1 Algorithm sensitivity ................................................................................ 31 4.8.2 Solar radiation assumptions ................................................................... 31 4.8.3 BGT equation ......................................................................................... 32 4.8.4 AWS erroneous data .............................................................................. 33 4.9 Overcoming the limitations ................................................................................. 35 4.9.1 New Research ........................................................................................ 35 4.9.2 Integrating local AWS ............................................................................. 35 4.9.3 New data handling process .................................................................... 35 4.9.4 Solar radiation issue ............................................................................... 35 4.9.5 Other improvements ............................................................................... 35 4.10 Subscriber survey .............................................................................................. 36 5. Discussion ..................................................................................................................... 38 6. Conclusion .................................................................................................................... 39 7. Bibliography .................................................................................................................. 40 Appendix A – WRF model Appendix B – Forecast zones Appendix C – Alert Bulletin 11 January 2013 Appendix D – Alert Bulletin 14 January 2013 Appendix E – Alert Bulletin 17 January 2013 Appendix F – Performance equations Page i of iv Appendix G – Model performance Appendix H – AHLU performance Appendix I – Survey results Tables Table 1 Southern Oscillation Index 30 day rolling average ................................................ 11 Table 2 AHLU risk levels ................................................................................................... 12 Table 3 Breakdown of alerts sent by month during forecast period .................................... 23 Table 4 Performance benchmark guidelines ...................................................................... 23 Table 5 Performance benchmarks by forecast zone 1 day ahead ...................................... 25 Table 6 Performance benchmarks by forecast zone 2 day ahead ...................................... 26 Table 7 Performance benchmarks by forecast zone 3 day ahead ...................................... 27 Table 8 1, 2 and 3 day forecast AHLU contingency tables for all locations for the forecast season .................................................................................................... 28 Table 9 K-WRF produces comparable statistics to other forecasting systems ................... 30 Table 10 Daily average calculated and predicted solar radiation and observed total rainfall for Kingaroy ............................................................................................... 32 Table 11 Error creep in the AWS data stream, a false reading of wind speed of 0 km/h caused a 10.8 unit increase in the HLI .................................................................. 34 Table 12 Corrected AWS data stream shows a reduction in the HLI and AHLU .................. 34 Figures Figure 1 K-WRF forecast domain .......................................................................................... 5 Figure 2 Schematic of the land surface scheme used in the K-WRF system ......................... 6 Figure 3 Schematic of the Cattle Heat Load Toolbox generation and delivery system .......... 8 Figure 4 Forecast zones ..................................................................................................... 10 Figure 5 AHLU 80 recorded at Applethorpe, Cessnock, Young and Scone automatic weather stations ................................................................................................... 13 Figure 6 Predicted AHLU 80 for Scone November 28 to December 3 for 1 day, 2 day and 3 days ahead ................................................................................................. 14 Figure 7 Temperature, relative humidity and wind speed forecast for January 11 4 pm (top). HLI forecast for January 11 4 pm and January 12 4 am .............................. 15 Figure 8 Temperature, relative humidity and wind speed forecast for January 12 4 pm (top). HLI forecast for January 12 4 pm and January 13 4 am .............................. 16 Figure 9 Observed and predicted average AHLU 80 for Zone 9 .......................................... 17 Figure 10 Predicted AHLU 80 for Zone 9 for 1 day, 2 day and 3 days ahead ........................ 17 Figure 11 HLI forecast for January 26 4 pm and January 27 4 am (top) and January 30 4 pm and January 30 10 pm .................................................................................... 19 Page ii of iv Figure 12 Observed and predicted average AHLU 80 for Zone 8 .......................................... 20 Figure 13 Predicted AHLU 80 for Zone 8 for 1 day, 2 day and 3 days ahead ........................ 20 Figure 14 Observed and predicted average AHLU 80 for Zone 9 .......................................... 21 Figure 15 Predicted AHLU 80 for Zone 9 for 1 day, 2 day and 3 days ahead ........................ 21 Figure 16 Observed and predicted average AHLU 80 for Zone 10 ........................................ 22 Figure 17 Predicted AHLU 80 for Zone 10 for 1 day, 2 day and 3 days ahead ...................... 22 Figure 18 Observed black globe temperature and calculated black globe temperature from observed temperature and clear sky solar radiation ...................................... 32 Page iii of iv Heat Load Index Forecast Season 2012 - 2013 Glossary Term Definition ACCESS Australian
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