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Ten-Year Plan (2007-2016)

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Ten-Year Plan (2007-2016) PUBLIC SERVICE COMMISSION OF MARYLAND TEN-YEAR PLAN (2007 – 2016) OF ELECTRIC COMPANIES IN MARYLAND (as of December 31, 2007) Prepared for the Maryland Department of Natural Resources In compliance with Section 7-201 of the Maryland Public Utility Companies Article State of Maryland Public Service Commission Steven B. Larsen, Chairman Harold D. Williams, Commissioner Susanne Brogan, Commissioner Allen M. Freifeld, Commissioner Lawrence Brenner, Commissioner Terry J. Romine Gregory V. Carmean Douglas R.M. Nazarian Executive Secretary Executive Director General Counsel 6 St. Paul Street Baltimore, MD 21202 Tel: (410) 767-8000 www.psc.state.md.us This report was drafted by the Commission’s Energy Resources and Markets Division (R. Scott Everngam, Acting Director) in cooperation with the Engineering Division (J. Richard Schafer, Chief Engineer) and the Economics and Policy Analysis Division (Merwin Sands, Director). Electric companies under the Commission’s jurisdiction provided most of the data in the Appendix. TABLE OF CONTENTS I. INTRODUCTION..................................................................................................................... 1 II. MARYLAND AND PJM ZONAL LOAD FORECAST ...................................................... 3 III. GENERATION AND SUPPLY ADEQUACY IN MARYLAND...................................... 5 A. Current Maryland Generation Profile and At-Risk Generation Units................................ 5 B. Potential Generation Additions in Maryland in the PJM Queues....................................... 8 C. Potential Generation Locations......................................................................................... 11 D. Maryland’s Healthy Air Act and Generation Upgrades................................................... 12 E. CPCN Exemptions for Generation.................................................................................... 14 IV. ENERGY TRANSMISSION IN PJM AND MARYLAND.............................................. 16 A. The Regional Transmission Expansion Planning Protocol .............................................. 16 B. Proposals for New High Voltage Transmission Lines in PJM ......................................... 19 C. Transmission Congestion in Maryland............................................................................. 19 D. FERC Order 890 and Maryland ....................................................................................... 23 V. ENERGY EFFICIENCY, CONSERVATION AND DEMAND RESPONSE ................. 25 A. Statutory Requirements .................................................................................................... 25 B. Current Utility Activities .................................................................................................. 27 C. Mid-Atlantic Distributed Resources Initiative.................................................................. 29 D. Maryland Demand Response Initiatives........................................................................... 31 VI. ENERGY, THE ENVIRONMENT AND RENEWABLES.............................................. 34 A. Maryland’s Climate Change Commission........................................................................ 34 B. The Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative.......................................................................... 35 C. The Renewable Energy Portfolio Standard Program........................................................ 38 D. Solar Power Requirements in Maryland........................................................................... 42 E. Small Generators Interconnection..................................................................................... 44 VII. DISTRIBUTION RELIABILITY IN MARYLAND ....................................................... 46 A. Distribution Reliability Assurance ................................................................................... 46 B. Distribution Reliability Issues .......................................................................................... 48 C. Distribution Planning Process........................................................................................... 50 D. Managing Distribution Outages ....................................................................................... 55 VIII. MARYLAND ELECTRICITY MARKETS................................................................... 57 A. Status of Retail Electric Choice in Maryland................................................................... 57 B. Standard Offer Service ..................................................................................................... 59 C. Legislation and Compliance Reporting ............................................................................ 60 - i - IX. PJM AND REGIONAL ENERGY ISSUES AND EVENTS............................................ 64 A. Overview of PJM, OPSI, and Reliability First................................................................. 64 B. PJM Summer Peak Events of 2006 and 2007................................................................... 67 C. PJM State of the Market Report ....................................................................................... 68 D. Installed Reserve Margin.................................................................................................. 69 E. Electricity Imports and Exports within PJM..................................................................... 71 F. PJM’s Reliability Pricing Model....................................................................................... 73 G. Implementation of Marginal Losses in PJM .................................................................... 75 H. Demand Response in PJM Markets.................................................................................. 77 X. FEDERAL AND NATIONAL ENERGY ISSUES IMPACTING MARYLAND............ 80 A. Energy Policy Act of 2005 ............................................................................................... 80 B. Energy and Security Act of 2007...................................................................................... 80 C. Formation of a National Electric Reliability Organization............................................... 83 D. NERC Report to FERC on 2007 Summer Operations and Standards Compliance ......... 85 E. DOE Congestion Study and National Interest Electric Transmission Corridors.............. 87 F. FERC Staff Report on Demand Response Programs and Advanced Metering ................ 91 APPENDIX.................................................................................................................................. 95 Table A-1: Utilities Providing Retail Electric Service in Maryland .................................... 96 Table A-2: Number of Customers by Customer Class (As of December 31, 2006)........... 97 Table A-3: Sales by Customer Class (As of December 31, 2006)....................................... 98 Table A-4: Number of Residential Space Heating Customers, 2006................................... 99 Table A-4: Typical Utility Bills in Maryland, Winter 2007................................................ 100 Table A-5(a): System-Wide Peak Demand Forecast (Net of DSM Programs)................... 101 Table A-5(b): Maryland Peak Demand Forecast (Net of DSM Programs)......................... 102 Table A-6(a): System-Wide Energy Sales Forecast (Net of DSM Programs) .................... 103 Table A-6(b): Maryland Energy Sales Forecast (Net of DSM Programs).......................... 104 Table A-7: Licensed Electric & Natural Gas Suppliers and Brokers/Aggregators............. 105 Table A-8: Transmission Enhancements by Service Area................................................. 109 Table A-9: Renewable Projects Providing Capacity and Energy to Maryland Customers 111 Table A-10: Power Purchase Agreements.......................................................................... 112 - ii - LIST OF MAPS, TABLES, AND CHARTS Map I.1: Maryland Utilities and their Service Territories in Maryland......................................... 2 Table II.1: Maryland Electricity Load Forecasts ........................................................................... 4 Table III.A.1: Generation by Owner, County, and Capacity......................................................... 6 Table III.A.2: Maryland Generating Capacity Profile (as of January 1, 2006) ............................. 7 Table III.A.3: Maryland Electric Power Generation Profile.......................................................... 8 Table III.B.1: New Generating Resources Planned for Construction in Maryland........................ 9 Map III.C.1: Maryland Potential Generation Sites ...................................................................... 11 Table III.D.1: Emission Related Upgrades for Coal-fired Plants ................................................. 13 Table III.E.1: CPCN Exemptions Granted, Since October 2001.................................................. 15 Chart IV.C.1: Average Locational Marginal Price by Zone........................................................ 20 Chart IV.C.2: Average Hourly LMP (6/1/2007 – 8/31/2007) ..................................................... 21 Chart IV.C.3: Average Hourly LMP (6/1/2006 – 8/31/2006) ..................................................... 21 Map IV.C.1: Summer Peak Congestion LMP Map (8/8/2007) ................................................... 22 Chart VI.A.1: Maryland Climate Change Commission Working Groups..................................
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