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Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy of Washington, D.C

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Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy of Washington, D.C HOW THE POLL WAS CONDUCTED This poll was conducted for the Honolulu Star-Advertiser by Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy of Washington, D.C. from July 6 through July 11, 2018. A total of 800 registered Hawaii voters were interviewed statewide by telephone. All stated they vote regularly in state elections. Those interviewed were selected randomly from a telephone-matched Hawaii voter registration list that included both land line and cell phone numbers. Quotas were assigned to reflect voter registration by county. The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than ± 3.5 percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the "true" figure would fall within that range if all voters were surveyed. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as a gender or age grouping. 1 Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy – July 2018 Hawaii Poll STATEWIDE NAME RECOGNITION Do you recognize the name ________? (IF YES) Do you have a favorable, unfavorable or neutral opinion of ________? RECOGNIZE RECOGNIZE RECOGNIZE DON'T FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE NEUTRAL RECOGNIZE David Ige 41% 21% 37% 1% Colleen Hanabusa 37% 31% 31% 1% Andria Tupola 26% 4% 34% 36% John Carroll 18% 17% 27% 38% Raymond L’Heureux 3% 2% 14% 81% 2 Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy – July 2018 Hawaii Poll *** 494 LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS *** (Margin for error = ± 4.5%) STATEWIDE NAME RECOGNITION Do you recognize the name ________? (IF YES) Do you have a favorable, unfavorable or neutral opinion of ________? RECOGNIZE RECOGNIZE RECOGNIZE DON'T FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE NEUTRAL RECOGNIZE David Ige 49% 17% 34% - Colleen Hanabusa 44% 22% 33% 1% QUESTION: If the 2018 Democratic primary for Governor were held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were: (ORDER ROTATED) STATE MEN WOMEN OAHU NEIGHBOR ISLANDS David Ige 44% 55% 37% 43% 45% Colleen Hanabusa 40% 33% 45% 42% 36% Undecided (NOT READ) 16% 12% 18% 15% 19% QUESTION: If the 2018 Democratic primary for Lieutenant Governor were held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were: (ORDER ROTATED) STATE MEN WOMEN OAHU NEIGHBOR ISLANDS Josh Green 34% 27% 38% 31% 41% Jill Tokuda 14% 11% 16% 16% 10% Bernard Carvalho 14% 15% 13% 13% 17% Kim Coco Iwamoto 10% 14% 7% 13% 4% Will Espero 6% 7% 6% 5% 7% Undecided (NOT READ) 22% 26% 20% 22% 21% 3 Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy – July 2018 Hawaii Poll *** 143 LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS *** (Margin for error = ± 8.4%) STATEWIDE NAME RECOGNITION Do you recognize the name ________? (IF YES) Do you have a favorable, unfavorable or neutral opinion of ________? RECOGNIZE RECOGNIZE RECOGNIZE DON'T FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE NEUTRAL RECOGNIZE Andria Tupola 39% 2% 31% 28% John Carroll 23% 13% 30% 34% Raymond L’Heureux 9% 4% 13% 74% QUESTION: If the 2018 Republican primary for Governor were held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were: (ORDER ROTATED) Andria Tupola 41% John Carroll 28% Raymond L’Heureux 8% Undecided (NOT READ) 23% 4 Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy – July 2018 Hawaii Poll *** 1ST CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT - 244 LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS *** (Margin for error = ± 6.4%) NAME RECOGNITION Do you recognize the name ________? (IF YES) Do you have a favorable, unfavorable or neutral opinion of ________? RECOGNIZE RECOGNIZE RECOGNIZE DON'T FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE NEUTRAL RECOGNIZE Ed Case 54% 5% 32% 9% Douglas Chin 39% 14% 30% 17% Donna Mercado Kim 30% 23% 41% 6% Kaniela Ing 17% 11% 40% 32% Ernie Martin 16% 14% 39% 31% Beth Fukumoto 9% 5% 45% 41% QUESTION: If the 2018 Democratic primary for Hawaii’s First District Congressional seat were held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were: (ORDER ROTATED) Ed Case 36% Douglas Chin 27% Donna Mercado Kim 14% Kaniela Ing 6% Ernie Martin 2% Beth Fukumoto 1% Undecided (NOT READ) 14% 5 Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy – July 2018 Hawaii Poll *** ALL VOTERS *** QUESTION: If the 2018 general election for Governor were held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were David Ige, the Democrat, and Andria Tupola, the Republican? SEX PARTY ID STATE MEN WOMEN DEM REP IND IGE 57% 52% 61% 85% 13% 49% TUPOLA 34% 41% 28% 11% 76% 38% UNDECIDED 9% 7% 11% 4% 11% 13% QUESTION: If the 2018 general election for Governor were held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were David Ige, the Democrat, and John Carroll, the Republican? SEX PARTY ID STATE MEN WOMEN DEM REP IND IGE 62% 60% 63% 88% 16% 56% CARROLL 23% 27% 20% 6% 61% 21% UNDECIDED 15% 13% 17% 6% 23% 23% QUESTION: If the 2018 general election for Governor were held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were David Ige, the Democrat, and Raymond L’Heureux, the Republican? SEX PARTY ID STATE MEN WOMEN DEM REP IND IGE 67% 62% 71% 89% 30% 62% L’HEUREUX 20% 30% 11% 4% 57% 17% UNDECIDED 13% 8% 18% 7% 13% 21% 6 Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy – July 2018 Hawaii Poll QUESTION: If the 2018 general election for Governor were held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were Colleen Hanabusa, the Democrat, and Andria Tupola, the Republican? SEX PARTY ID STATE MEN WOMEN DEM REP IND HANABUSA 48% 44% 52% 80% 7% 31% TUPOLA 35% 41% 29% 10% 81% 39% UNDECIDED 17% 15% 19% 10% 12% 30% QUESTION: If the 2018 general election for Governor were held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were Colleen Hanabusa, the Democrat, and John Carroll, the Republican? SEX PARTY ID STATE MEN WOMEN DEM REP IND HANABUSA 51% 47% 54% 81% 12% 36% CARROLL 31% 36% 27% 5% 78% 37% UNDECIDED 18% 17% 19% 14% 10% 27% QUESTION: If the 2018 general election for Governor were held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were Colleen Hanabusa, the Democrat, and Raymond L’Heureux, the Republican? SEX PARTY ID STATE MEN WOMEN DEM REP IND HANABUSA 58% 55% 60% 91% 22% 38% L’HEUREUX 26% 31% 22% 5% 65% 30% UNDECIDED 16% 14% 18% 4% 13% 32% 7 Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy – July 2018 Hawaii Poll DEMOGRAPHICS PARTY IDENTIFICATION: Democrat 357 (45%) Republican 171 (21%) Independent/Other 272 (34%) RACE/ETHNICITY: White 203 (25%) Japanese 176 (22%) Native Hawaiian 80 (10%) Filipino 95 (12%) Other Asian 26 (3%) Mixed Race 157 (20%) Other 58 (7%) Refused 5 (1%) AGE: 18-34 122 (15%) 35-49 236 (30%) 50-64 235 (29%) 65+ 202 (25%) Refused 5 (1%) SEX: Male 382 (48%) Female 418 (52%) CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT: 1st Congressional District 391 (49%) 2nd Congressional District 409 (51%) REGION: Oahu 535 (67%) Neighbor Islands 265 (33%) INTERVIEWS: Land-line 518 (65%) Mobile 282 (35%) 8 Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy – July 2018 Hawaii Poll .
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